The Automobile & Motorcycle Industry in Thailand - ENG SINIR 2015-29 Thailand ...
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The Automobile & Motorcycle
Industry in Thailand
Bank of Tokyo-Mitsubishi UFJ, Ltd.
Corporate Research Division (Singapore)
Jun 2015
Bank of Tokyo-Mitsubishi UFJ
A member of MUFG, a global financial groupTable of Contents
Ⅰ．The Automobile Industry in Thailand ・・・2
1. Current Situation （page 3 ～）
2. Manufacturers’ Trends （page 10 ～）
3. Regulatory Trends （page 16 ～）
4. Future Outlook （page 18～）
Ⅱ．The Motorcycle Industry in Thailand ・・・25
1. Current Situation （page 26～）
2. Manufacturers’ Trends （page 29）
3. Future Outlook （page 30～）
1 The Automobile and Motorcycle Industry in Thailand June 2015Ⅰ.The Automobile Industry in Thailand 2 The Automobile and Motorcycle Industry in Thailand June 2015
Ⅰ．The Automobile Industry in Thailand
1. Current Situation / Macroeconomic Trends (1/2)
The Thai economy has Real GDP Growth Rate in Thailand
(%)
slowed down for the second
year in a row due to political 10
turmoil from late 2013 to 7.8
8 6.5
early 2014. 5.1 5.0
6 4.6
4 2.5 2.9
In 2006, Thailand’s GDP per 0.7
2
capita reached USD 3,000, 0.1
the level where car sales 0
gain momentum -2
-2.3
(motorization). In 2011, it -4
2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014
exceeded USD 5,000,
resulting in wider vehicle (Source) IMF World Economic Outlook Database, April 2015, compiled by BTMU CRD Singapore
ownership. (However,
automobile sales declined
from 2013 due to the high GDP per Capita and Automobile Sales
base effect of the first-time (1,000 units) (USD)
car buyer tax rebate as well 1,800 6,000
as political turmoil, etc.)
1,500 5,000
1,200 4,000
900 3,000
600 2,000
300 1,000
0 0
2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014
Automobile Sales (LHS) GDP per Capita (RHS)
(Note) GDP per Capita in 2014 is based on IMF’s estimates.
(Source) CEIC, IMF World Economic Outlook Database, April 2015, compiled by BTMU CRD Singapore
3 The Automobile and Motorcycle Industry in Thailand June 2015Ⅰ．The Automobile Industry in Thailand
1. Current Situation / Macroeconomic Trends (2/2)
Purchasing power has Average Monthly Salary in Thailand
(THB)
been increasing with
rising income levels. 20,000 15%
The policy interest rate 15,000 10%
has also been declining 6.7%
since late 2011, however
10,000 5%
automobile demand has
been sluggish due to slow
recovery in worsening 5,000 0%
consumer confidence
caused by political turmoil. 0 -5%
2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014
Average Monthly Salary (THB) YoY (RHS) CAGR (10 years)
(Source) CEIC, compiled by BTMU CRD Singapore
Policy Interest Rate and Automobile Sales in Thailand
(1,000 units)
200 4%
150 3%
100 2%
50 1%
0 0%
Dec/2009 Dec/2010 Dec/2011 Dec/2012 Dec/2013 Dec/2014
Automobile Sales (LHS) Policy Interest Rate (RHS)
(Source) CEIC, compiled by BTMU CRD Singapore
4 The Automobile and Motorcycle Industry in Thailand June 2015Ⅰ．The Automobile Industry in Thailand
1. Current Situation / Automobile Sales
Thailand ranked 6th in Asia Automobile Sales Ranking in 11 Asian Countries
and 2nd in ASEAN for (1,000 units)
automobile sales in 2014.
CAGR
Country 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 (YoY)
(2009-2014)
Thailand and Indonesia
account for over 60% of the China 13,622 18,062 18,505 19,306 21,984 23,492 (6.9%) 11.5%
total market share in the
ASEAN automobile market. Japan 4,609 4,956 4,210 5,370 5,375 5,563 (3.5%) 3.8%
In 2014, Indonesia ranked
1st for the first time in 3 India 2,264 3,039 3,293 3,584 3,239 3,177 (-1.9%) 7.0%
years in ASEAN as
Thailand’s sales was
South Korea 1,455 1,556 1,580 1,542 1,524 1,650 (8.3%) 2.5%
sluggish in 2014.
Indonesia 486 765 894 1,116 1,229 1,209 (-1.7%) 20.0%
Thailand 549 800 794 1,436 1,331 882 (-33.7%) 10.0%
Malaysia 537 605 600 628 656 666 (1.6%) 4.4%
Taiwan 294 328 378 366 378 424 (12.0%) 7.6%
Philippines 132 168 142 157 181 235 (29.6%) 12.2%
Pakistan 112 152 163 158 142 147 (3.6%) 5.6%
Vietnam 119 112 111 80 97 134 (38.2%) 2.3%
(Note) The figures for India, Pakistan and Vietnam denote domestically-produced automobiles and do not include data for imported
automobiles.
(Source) Automobile industry association of respective countries, CEIC, newspapers, compiled by BTMU CRD Singapore
5 The Automobile and Motorcycle Industry in Thailand June 2015Ⅰ．The Automobile Industry in Thailand
1. Current Situation / Historical Automobile Sales
Automobile sales plunged Annual Automobile Sales in Thailand
by over 30% YoY in 2014 as (1,000 units)
consumer confidence
weakened due to political 2,000 50%
turmoil and the recovery 80.6%
was slow. 1,500 25%
2.5%
Monthly sales continue to
1,000 0%
experience YoY decline
from May 2013 onwards.
500 -25%
0 -50%
2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014
Automobile Sales (LHS) YoY (RHS) CAGR (10 years)
(Source) CEIC, compiled by BTMU CRD Singapore
Monthly Automobile Sales in Thailand
(1,000 units)
250 150%
233%～477％
200 100%
150 50%
100 0%
50 -50%
0 -100%
Dec/2011 Jun/2012 Dec/2012 Jun/2013 Dec/2013 Jun/2014 Dec/2014
Automobile Sales (LHS) YoY (RHS)
(Source) CEIC, compiled by BTMU CRD Singapore
6 The Automobile and Motorcycle Industry in Thailand June 2015Ⅰ．The Automobile Industry in Thailand
1. Current Situation / Historical Automobile Sales by Type
Commercial vehicles make Automobile Sales by Type
up about 60% of the overall (1,000 units)
sales volume. 1-ton pickup Passenger vehicle Commercial vehicle
trucks account for the 1,500
majority of commercial
vehicle sales. Most 1,000 764 699
passenger vehicles sold
were small automobiles. 454 434 512
500 515 490
416 461 388 319 672 631
227 230 347 362 370
209 188 192 170
0
2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014
(Source) CEIC, compiled by BTMU CRD Singapore
Automobile Sales by Segment
（千台）units)
(1,000 ＜Passenger Vehicle＞
＞ ＜Commercial Vehicle＞
＞
1,000 100% (1,000 units)
（千台）
800 100% ～Sales～
～Sales～
900 80%
Mid to
中大型 large
700 80%
800 60% その他
Others vehicle
(MPV, etc.) (trucks etc. with
700 40% 600 60%
loading capacity of
Mid to large 2 tons or more)
600 20% 中大型 500 40%
vehicle Small
小型 vehicle
500 0% (4.6m or more) (pickup trucks with
400 20%
loading capacity of
400 -20% Small
小型 vehicle less than 2 tons, etc.)
(less than 4.6m and 300 0%
300 -40% displacement of
less than 2.0ℓ) 200 -20% YoY
前年比
200 -60% (Total)
前年比
YoY
100 -80% (Total) 100 -40%
0 -100% 0 -60%
2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014
(Source) FOURIN Asia Automobile Monthly Research Report, CEIC, compiled by BTMU CRD Singapore
The Automobile and Motorcycle Industry in Thailand June 2015
7Ⅰ．The Automobile Industry in Thailand
1. Current Situation / Automobile Production
Thailand’s production volume Automobile Production Ranking in 11 Asian Countries
ranks 5th in Asia and 1st in (1,000 units)
ASEAN in 2014.
CAGR
Country 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 (YoY)
In Thailand, exports account (2009-2014)
for about 60% of the total
China 13,763 18,265 18,419 19,272 22,117 23,723 (7.3%) 11.5%
production volume.
Japan 7,935 9,629 8,399 9,943 9,111 9,775 (7.3%) 4.3%
South Korea 3,513 4,272 4,657 4,558 4,522 4,525 (0.1%) 5.2%
India 2,628 3,529 3,935 4,142 3,874 3,839 (-0.9%) 7.9%
Thailand 999 1,645 1,458 2,429 2,457 1,881 (-23.5%) 13.5%
Indonesia 465 703 838 1,057 1,208 1,296 (7.3%) 22.8%
Malaysia 489 568 534 570 601 596 (-0.8%) 4.0%
Taiwan 226 303 343 339 339 379 (12.0%) 10.9%
Pakistan 109 153 162 160 142 149 (4.6%) 6.3%
Vietnam 113 112 108 99 110 121 (10.1%) 1.5%
Philippines 63 80 65 75 80 89 (11.1%) 7.3%
(Source) Automobile industry association of respective countries, CEIC, newspapers, compiled by BTMU CRD Singapore
8 The Automobile and Motorcycle Industry in Thailand June 2015Ⅰ．The Automobile Industry in Thailand
1. Current Situation / Automobile Production and Exports
Production volume
increased at an annual Annual Automobile Production in Thailand
(1,000 units)
growth rate of 5.9% in the
past 10 years. However, it
decreased significantly by 3,000 80%
-23.5% YoY in 2014 due 2,500 60%
to huge decline in 2,000 40%
domestic sales.
1,500 20%
5.9%
On the other hand, 1,000 0%
exports increased at a 500 -20%
double-digit growth rate on 0 -40%
average in the past 10 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014
years. Export destinations Automobile Production (LHS) YoY (RHS) CAGR (10 years)
include ASEAN countries,
(Source) CEIC, compiled by BTMU CRD Singapore
Australia and Middle East.
Currently exports have
Annual Automobile Export in Thailand
maintained high level.
(1,000 units)
＜Top 10 Largest Export Partners （2014）＞
(USD millio n )
Country Exports Percentage
1,500 100%
Australia 4,005 15.4%
Indonesia 2,109 8.1% 1,000 50%
Philippines 1,612 6.2%
Malaysia 1,607 6.2% 11.0%
500 0%
Saudi Arabia 1,603 6.2%
Japan 1,249 4.8%
0 -50%
United Arab Emirates 788 3.0%
2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014
USA 766 2.9%
South Africa 646 2.5% Export Volume (LHS) YoY (RHS) CAGR (10 years)
UK 607 2.3%
Others 11,031 42.4% (Source) CEIC, compiled by BTMU CRD Singapore
(Source) CEIC, UN COMTRADE, newspapers, etc.
9 The Automobile and Motorcycle Industry in Thailand June 2015Ⅰ．The Automobile Industry in Thailand
2. Manufacturers’ Trends / Major Automakers in Thailand (1/2)
Japanese automakers have Overview of Major Manufacturers ① (As of March 2015)
a long history of
manufacturing automobiles
in Thailand. Brand Toyota Honda Isuzu
Company Toyota Motor Thailand Honda Automobile (Thailand) Isuzu Motors (Thailand)
Date of
1962 2000 1966
Establishment
186/1 Moo 1 Old Railway Rd., 38 Kor. Moo9 Poochaosamingprai
Location of 49 Moo 9 Tambol Thanu,
Tambol Samrong-Tai, Phra Rd., Samrong-Tai, Phrapradaeng,
Headquarters Amphur Uthai, Ayutthaya
Padaeng Di Samutprakan Samutprakan
THB 7.52 billion THB 5.46 billion THB 8.5 billion
Capital (JPY 27.1 billion) (JPY 19.6 billion) (JPY 30.6 billion)
Production
Finished cars: 770,000 Finished cars: 300,000 Finished cars: 430,000
Capacity
No. of
18,400 4,200 6,600
Employees
① Honda: 75.94% ① IMA: 71.1%
Shareholding ① Toyota: 86.43%
② Asian Honda Motor: 15.42% ② TIS: 27.3%
Structure ② Siam Cement: 13.57%
③ Others: 8.64% ③ Others: 1.6%
Major Prius, Vios, Corolla,
Brio, City, Civic, Jazz, CR-V, etc. D-MAX, MU-7, etc.
Models Hilux Vigo, Fortuner, etc.
(Note) THB 1=JPY 3.6. The number of employees refer to the figures of each standalone company.
Contract employees are not included.
(Source) Website of respective company, newspapers, etc. compiled by BTMU CRD Singapore
10 The Automobile and Motorcycle Industry in Thailand June 2015Ⅰ．The Automobile Industry in Thailand
2. Manufacturers’ Trends / Major Automakers in Thailand (2/2)
Overview of Major Manufacturers ② (As of March 2015)
Brand Mitsubishi Motors Nissan Mazda/Ford
Company Mitsubishi Motors (Thailand) Nissan Motor (Thailand) AutoAlliance (Thailand)
Date of
1987 1973 1998
Establishment
69-69/1-3 MUII Phaholyothin Rd., Eastern Seaboard Industrial
Location of 74 Moo 2, Bangna-Trad Rd.,
Tambol Klongneung Ampur Estate No.49, Moo 4,
Headquarters Km.2, Bangplee, Samutprakan
Klongluang, Phathumthanee Pluakdaeng, Rayong
THB 16.15billion THB 1.93billion THB 8.44billion
Capital (JPY 58.1 billion) (JPY 7.0 billion) ( JPY30.4 billion)
Production
Finished cars: 510,000 Finished cars: 295,000 Finished cars: 295,000
Capacity
No. of
7,500 8,000 4,300
Employees
① Ford: 50%
Shareholding ① Nissan: 75%
① Mitsubishi Motors: 99.9% ② Mazda: 47%
Structure ② Siam Motors: 25%
③ Mazda Sales Thailand: 3%
Major Triton, Pajero, Lancer, Frontier, March, Almera, Mazda BT-50, Mazda 2,
Models Mirage, etc. Teana, etc. Ford Ranger, Everest, etc.
(Note) THB 1=JPY 3.6. The number of employees refer to the figures of each standalone company.
Contract employees are not included.
(Source) Website of respective company, newspapers, etc. compiled by BTMU CRD Singapore
11 The Automobile and Motorcycle Industry in Thailand June 2015Ⅰ．The Automobile Industry in Thailand
2. Manufacturers’ Trends / Top 10 Selling Models
Many of the top-selling Top 10 Selling Models in Thailand (2014)
models are 1-ton pickup
trucks because of Displacement Sales Price Price
Model Automaker Segment
government excise tax (ℓ) (unit) (THB 1,000) (JPY million)
incentives. Small passenger 1 Hilux Toyota Pickup 2.5 144,693 590 860 2.13 3.10
～ ～
vehicles are also popular
and many of them rank 2 D-Max Isuzu Pickup 2.5 128,496 800 ～ 950 2.89 ～ 3.42
among the top-selling
models as fuel-efficient 3 Yaris Toyota Sedan 1.2 52,809 470 ～ 630 1.69 ～ 2.26
vehicles get a reduction in
4 Vios Toyota Sedan 1.5 47,800 560 ～ 730 2.01 ～ 2.64
excise duty.
5 City Honda Sedan 1.5 44,444 560 ～ 750 2.01 ～ 2.70
Pick-up trucks priced
between JPY 2.5 million 6 Altis Toyota Sedan 1.6 36,593 770 ～ 1,070 2.77 ～ 3.85
(with displacement of
7 Triton Mitsubishi Motors Pickup 2.5 33,105 550 ～ 900 1.97 ～ 3.23
2,500cc) and passenger
vehicles priced around JPY 8 Ranger Ford Pickup 2.5 23,977 560 ～ 1,100 2.01 ～ 3.99
2 million (with displacement
of 1,500cc) are popular. 9 Fortuner Toyota SUV 2.5 20,156 1,100 ～ 1,540 3.97 ～ 5.53
10 MU-X Isuzu SUV 2.5 19,040 1,010 ～ 1,400 3.65 ～ 5.04
Toyota: Hilux Honda: City Isuzu: MU-X
(Note) THB 1 = JPY3.6.
(Source) Newspapers, website of respective company, compiled by BTMU CRD Singapore
12 The Automobile and Motorcycle Industry in Thailand June 2015Ⅰ．The Automobile Industry in Thailand
2. Manufacturers’ Trends / Sales and Market Share by Manufacturer
(Total sales and market share of passenger and commercial vehicles)
Market Share of Japanese and Non-Japanese
Japanese automakers
Sales in Thailand by Manufacturer Makers (2014)
accounted for about 90% of
total sales in 2014. 2012 2013 2014 (1,000 units)
0 200 400 600
Non-
Toyota ranks 1st (37% 515 Japanese
Toyota 445 Maker
share). Meanwhile, Isuzu 11%
326
ranks 2nd driven by strong 213
Others
8% Toyota
Isuzu 206
sales of SUV(MU-X), which 160
Nissan
7%
37%
was launched in November 171 Mitsubishi
Motors
Honda 213 7%
2013. 106 Honda Isuzu
129 12% 18%
Mitsubishi Motors 105
63 Japanese
124 Maker
Nissan 98 89%
59
Ford Market Share by Manufacturer (2014)
Market Share by Manufacturer (2014)
Mazda Others 45%
Hino Benz 3%
Suzuki
GM 2% 2% 1%
GM 3% 35%
Mazda トヨタ
Toyota
4%
Suzuki
Ford 20% Isuzu
いすゞ
4%
Hino Honda
ホンダ
Nissan Toyota
15%
7% 37% Mitsubishi
Benz 三菱自
Mitsubishi Motors
Motors 10%
日産
Nissan
7%
BMW
Honda
12% Isuzu Ford
Ford
5%
Others 18%
Mazda
マツダ
0%
2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014
(Source) CEIC, newspapers, compiled by BTMU CRD Singapore
13 The Automobile and Motorcycle Industry in Thailand June 2015Ⅰ．The Automobile Industry in Thailand
2. Manufacturers’ Trends / PV Sales and Market Share by Manufacturer
Honda increased its market PV Sales in Thailand by Manufacturer PV Market Share by Manufacturer (2014)
share by launching new
models aggressively and (1,000 units) Chevrolet Others
0 50 100 150 200 250 Benz 2% Ford 1%
ranked 1st in 2013. However, 3% BMW 2%
Toyota ranked 1st again in Toyota Mazda
2%
2014 in the passenger 4%
vehicle market as the Suzuki
company launched new Honda 5%
Mitsubishi
models of the Yaris and Motors Toyota
Corolla, etc. Nissan 6% 41%
Nissan
8%
Mitsubishi Motors
Honda
26%
Mazda
Suzuki PV Market Share by Manufacturer
50%
トヨタ
Toyota
Ford
Small Vehicle 40% ホンダ
Honda
Mid/Large Vehicle
Chevrolet 日産
Nissan
MPV/SUV,etc.
30%
Top: 2012, Mitsubishi
三菱自
Middle: 2013. Motors
M-Benz
Bottom: 2014 20% スズキ
Suzuki
BMW マツダ
Mazda
10%
M-Benz
M-Benz
Others 0%
|
2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014
(Source) FOURIN Asia Automobile Monthly Research Report, CEIC, newspapers, compiled by BTMU CRD Singapore
14 The Automobile and Motorcycle Industry in Thailand June 2015Ⅰ．The Automobile Industry in Thailand
2. Manufacturers’ Trends / CV Sales and Market Share by Manufacturer
In the commercial small Sales by Manufacturer Market Share by Manufacturer and Segment
vehicle (mainly 1-ton pickup
truck) segment, Toyota ＜Small Ｖehicle＞
(1,000 units) Others
100%
accounts for 40% of the 0 50 100 150 200 250 300
80% Ford
market, while Isuzu has
Toyota 60%
about 50% of the medium- Mitsubishi
40% Motors
to-large vehicle market. 20% 44% 44% 41% 41% 40% Isuzu
38%
Isuzu 0% Toyota
2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014
Mitsubishi Motors ＜Mid-size to Large Ｖehicle＞
Others
100%
80% Volvo
Ford
60% Mitsubishi
40% Fuso
48% 50% 48% 51% 48% Hino
Nissan 20% 44%
0% Isuzu
2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014
Chevrolet
Small vehicle Market Share by Manufacturer and Segment
(1-ton pick-up trucks)
Mid-size to large vehicle 50%
Mazda トヨタ
Toyota
40% いすゞ
Isuzu
Top: 2012,
Hino Middle: 2013.
Mitsubishi
三菱自
Bottom: 2014 30% Motors
Suzuki Ford
Ford
20%
Nissan
日産
Tata
10%
Chevro
Chevrolet
let
Others 0%
2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014
(Source) FOURIN Asia Automobile Monthly Research Report, CEIC, newspapers, compiled by BTMU CRD Singapore
15 The Automobile and Motorcycle Industry in Thailand June 2015Ⅰ．The Automobile Industry in Thailand
3. Regulatory Trends / Eco Car Project
The Eco Car Project (Phase Overview of the Eco Car Project
2) was introduced in 2014.
Manufacturers plan to launch First Phase (2007～ ) Second Phase (2014～ )
vehicles which meet Eco car Displacement
Engine size should not exceed 1.3 liters (for gasoline Engine size should not exceed 1.3 liters (for gasoline engines)
engines) or 1.4 liters (for diesel engines). or 1.5 liters (for diesel engines).
criteria throughout 2017.
Fuel Consumption The car should travel more than 20 kilometers on a liter of fuel. The car should travel more than 23.3 kilometers on a liter of fuel.
Environmental The car should not emit more than 120g of carbon dioxide The car should not emit more than 100g of carbon dioxide
5 companies (Toyota, Honda, Regulations per kilometer and meet Euro-4 emissions standards. per kilometer and meet Euro-5 emissions standards.
Thai Eco Car
Mitsubishi Motors, Nissan Criteria Investment should be at least THB 6.5 billion (JPY 23.4 billion).
Total investment must reach THB 15 billion (JPY 54 billion)
and Suzuki) participated in Investment Value
in the first five years of operation.
Manufacturers that met this criteria in the first phase must invest
another THB 5 billion (JPY 18 billion).
the first Eco Car Project. The
Production capacity must not be low er than 100,000 units Production capacity must not be low er than 100,000 units
number of companies will be Production Size
per year from the fifth year of operation. per year from the fourth year of operation.
increased to 10 for the Others Autom obiles and engines m ust be m anufactured locally
second Eco Car Project (GM, Excise Duty 17% (30% for conventional vehicles) 14% (30% for conventional vehicles)
Mazda, Ford, VW and SAIC Major Incentives Corporate Tax Tax exem ption on corporate tax for up to 8 years Tax exem ption on corporate tax for up to 6 years
(refer to next page)
Motor have participated). Customs
Import duties for production facilities and machinery are exempt, and import duties on finished parts and raw materials are reduced
by up to 90% for 2 years.
(Note) THB 1 = JPY3.6.
(Source) Website of respective company, newspapers, compiled by BTMU CRD Singapore
Major Models that Meet the Eco Car Policy Requirements (Phase 1)
Manufacturer Nissan Suzuki Mitsubishi Motors Toyota Honda
Model Almera Swift Attrage Yaris Brio
THB 429,000～ THB 429,000～ THB 443,000～ THB 469,000～ THB 433,000～
Price
（JPY1.54 million～） （JPY1.54 million～） （JPY1.61 million～） （JPY1.69 million～） （JPY1.56 million～）
Launch date Oct 2011 Mar 2012 Jul 2013 Oct 2013 May 2011
Sales
15,680 units 13,140 units 11,722 units 52,809 units 1,896 units
(2014)
Image
(Note) THB 1 = JPY3.6.
(Source) Website of respective company, newspapers, compiled by BTMU CRD Singapore
16 The Automobile and Motorcycle Industry in Thailand June 2015Ⅰ．The Automobile Industry in Thailand
3. Regulatory Trends / (Reference) Excise Duty
Excise Duty and Import Duty, etc.
Import
Tariff
Type Engine and Displacement Alternative fuel (ethanol) Hybrid Electric CBU
Usual
E20 E85 Vehicle Vehicle (CKD)
Phase 1: 17%
Eco Car - -
Phase 2 : 14%
Less than 2,000cc and less than 220hp 30% 25% 22%
Passenger 80%
2,001-2,500cc and less than 220hp 35% 30% 27% 10% 10%
Vehicle (30%)
2,501-3,000cc and less than 220hp 40% 35% 32%
over 3,000cc or over 220hp 50% 50% 50%
Single cab (less than 3,250cc) 3%
Double cab (less than 3,250cc) 12%
1-ton Pickup 40%
- - - -
Truck (30%)
PPV (less than 3,250cc) 20%
over 3,250cc 50%
(Note) Import duties on CBU (Complete Built Up) vehicles and CKD (Complete Knock Down) vehicles from the ASEAN region are 0%.
PPV (Passenger Pickup Vehicle): 1-ton pickup truck based SUVs
(Source) FOURIN Asia Automobile Monthly Research Report, newspapers, compiled by BTMU CRD Singapore
17 The Automobile and Motorcycle Industry in Thailand June 2015Ⅰ．The Automobile Industry in Thailand
4. Future Outlook / Macroeconomic Trends (1/2)
Thailand’s real GDP growth Future Outlook for Real GDP Growth
rate is likely to remain solid
from 2015 onwards with 10%
stable economy due to
7.8%
normalization of economic 8%
6.5%
management.
6%
3.7% 4.1% 4.0% 3.9%
4% 3.5%
2.9%
2%
0.7%
0.1%
0%
2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019
(Note) The figures for 2015 and 2016 are estimated by BTMU ERO Singapore. The figures from 2017 onwards are estimated by IMF.
(Source) International Monetary Fund, World Economic Outlook Database, April 2015, compiled by BTMU CRD Singapore.
Future Outlook for GDP per Capita
(USD) (THB)
10,000 250,000
8,000 200,000
6,955
6,280 6,626
5,670 5,612 5,977
6,000 5,385 5,445 150,000
5,111
4,736
4,000 100,000
2,000 50,000
0 0
2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019
単位：米ドル（左目盛）
USD (LHS) 単位：タイバーツ（右目盛）
THB (RHS)
(Note) The figures from 2015 onwards are estimated by IMF.
(Source) International Monetary Fund, World Economic Outlook Database, April 2015, compiled by BTMU CRD Singapore.
18 The Automobile and Motorcycle Industry in Thailand June 2015Ⅰ．The Automobile Industry in Thailand
4. Future Outlook / Macroeconomic Trends (2/2)
The increasing population Total Population in Thailand
and middle class will boost (Million)
potential automobile
80
demand.
67.9
70 67.4
65.6 66.4
62.3
60
50
2000 2005 2010 2015 2020
(Note) The figures from 2015 onwards are estimated by the United Nations Department of Economic and Social Affairs (DESA).
(Source) World Population Prospects: The 2012 Revision, compiled by BTMU CRD Singapore
Percentage of Middle Class Households in Thailand
100%
80% 64.4% 68.6% 72.7%
62.4% 63.3%
60% 55.0%
40%
20%
0%
2000 2005 2010 2015 2020 2025
(Note) Percentage of middle-class households out of all households. Middle-class households are defined as families with disposable
income ranging from USD 5,000 to USD 35,000. The figures from 2015 onwards are based on estimates from Euromonitor.
(Source) Euromonitor, compiled by BTMU CRD Singapore
19 The Automobile and Motorcycle Industry in Thailand June 2015Ⅰ．The Automobile Industry in Thailand
4. Future Outlook / Potential for Growth in the Automobile Market
Thailand's automobile
GDP per Capita and Car Ownership Rate
market has some room
for expansion compared
to developed countries in (GDP per Capita/USD)
Asia such as South Korea
and Taiwan. 30,000
South Korea
Taiwan
10,000
Malaysia
Thailand
China
4,000
Philippines
Indonesia
Vietnam
2,000
India
Pakistan
0
1 unit per 50 1 unit per 20 1 unit per 10 1 unit per 5 1 unit per 2
people people people people people
(Car Ownership Rate)
(Note) The size of the circle in the graph indicates the size of the population. GDP per capita and population are as of 2013.
Car ownership rates are as of the end of 2012- the end of 2013 (some estimates are included).
(Source) IMF, compiled by BTMU CRD Singapore
20 The Automobile and Motorcycle Industry in Thailand June 2015Ⅰ．The Automobile Industry in Thailand
4. Future Outlook / Automobile Sales
Sales for 2015 are Future Outlook for Automobile Sales
expected to decline for the (1,000 units)
third year in a row due to
slow recovery in consumer 2,000 100%
confidence.
1,800 80%
Demand is likely to pick up
again from 2016 onwards 1,600 60%
as Thai economy will
continue to recover
1,400 40%
gradually.
1,200 20%
1,000 0%
800 -20%
600 -40%
400 -60%
200 -80%
0 -100%
2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017
Automobile Sales (LHS) YoY (RHS)
(Note) The figures from 2015 onwards are estimated by BTMU CRD Singapore.
(Source) CEIC, compiled by BTMU CRD Singapore
21 The Automobile and Motorcycle Industry in Thailand June 2015Ⅰ．The Automobile Industry in Thailand
4. Future Outlook / Automobile Production Volume
Manufacturers are Production Capacity, Production Volume and Utilization Rate of Manufacturers
expected to expand their (1,000 units)
production capacity, as
domestic demand and
exports to surrounding 4,000 100%
countries are expected to
increase in the medium to
long term. 3,500 80%
Production volume is 3,000 60%
expected to increase with
solid export, while the
utilization rate is expected 2,500 40%
to be about 60%.
2,000 20%
1,500 0%
1,000 -20%
500 -40%
0 -60%
2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016
Production Capacity Production Volume Utilization Rate
(Note) The figures from 2015 onwards are estimated by BTMU CRD Singapore
(Source) CEIC, compiled by BTMU CRD Singapore
22 The Automobile and Motorcycle Industry in Thailand June 2015Ⅰ．The Automobile Industry in Thailand
4. Future Outlook / New Car Launches and Plans
Manufacturers will launch
new models and full model New Car Launch Plan by Major Manufacturers (2015 onwards)
changes of their popular
models from 2015 onwards. Price
Improv-
Automaker Model Type Year (THB Description
ement
1,000)
Toyota: Hilux Revo
Pick-up IMV (Innovative-International Multi-Purpose Vehicle)
Hilux Revo 2015 ○ 510 ～
truck model for Pick-up. Developed for emerging markets.
Toyota Fortuner SUV 2015 ○ 1,110 ～ IMV model for SUV.
Innova MPV 2015 ○ 860 ～ IMV model for MPV.
Suzuki: Ciaz
Model for the Eco Car policy (phase 1) after “Swift” and
Suzuki Ciaz Sedan 2015 ◎ N.A. ～
“Celerio”. Plan to be produced from June 2015.
Pajero Sport SUV 2016 ○ 1,400 ～ “Triton” pickup truck based SUV.
Mitsubishi
Motors Delica
Space MPV 2015 ◎ 1,780 ～ Premium MPV that plans to be imported from Japan
Wagon
Mazda: Mazda2
Mazda Mazda2 Hatchback 2015 ◎ N.A. ～ Model for the Eco Car policy (phase 2) .
Med-sized revised SUV model sold in Asia and Oceania
Ford Everest SUV 2015 ◎ 1,270 ～
region.
(Note) In the improvement section, ◎ refers to new models and ○ refers to redesigned models.
(Source) Website of respective company, newspapers, compiled by BTMU CRD Singapore
23 The Automobile and Motorcycle Industry in Thailand June 2015Ⅰ．The Automobile Industry in Thailand
4. Future Outlook / Production Capacity of Manufacturers
• Honda, Nissan and BMW Production Capacity and Expansion Plans of Major Manufacturers
plan to increase their
production capacity. (1,000 units)
0 100 200 300 400 500 600 700 800 900
Toyota 770
Mitsubishi Motors 510
・To construct a new plant at Rojana industrial park by 2016
Honda 300 120 (annual production capacity of 120,000 units)
＜Production Bases of Major Manufacturers＞ Isuzu 430
・To increase annual production capacity at Samutprakarn plant
Nissan 295 75
from 80,000 units to 160,000 units in 2016
Ford 150
2014 2015 2016～
Ford/Mazda 295
GM 180
Suzuki 100
10
BMW 10 ・To increase annual production capacity to 20,000 units in order to export cars to ASEAN countries
(Source) Website of respective company,
newspapers, etc. (Note) The figures of each company are the planned production capacity at the end of each year.
(Source) Newspapers, compiled by BTMU CRD Singapore
24 The Automobile and Motorcycle Industry in Thailand June 2015Ⅱ. The Motorcycle Industry in Thailand 25 The Automobile and Motorcycle Industry in Thailand June 2015
Ⅱ．The Motorcycle Industry in Thailand
1. Current Situation / Motorcycle Sales
Thailand’s sales ranked Motorcycle Sales Ranking in 11 Asian Countries
5th in Asia and 3rd in (1,000 units)
ASEAN in 2014.
CAGR
Country 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 (YoY)
(2009-2014)
China 19,208 23,658 24,368 23,624 22,892 21,290 (-7.0%) 2.1%
India 8,645 11,237 13,064 13,817 14,358 16,014 (11.5%) 13.1%
Indonesia 5,852 7,369 8,013 7,064 7,744 7,909 (2.1%) 6.2%
Vietnam 2,687 3,150 3,850 3,090 3,100 2,430 (-21.6%) -2.0%
Thailand 1,535 1,846 2,007 2,130 1,824 1,702 (-6.7%) 2.1%
Pakistan 756 760 731 703 750 790 (5.4%) 0.9%
Philippines 508 738 835 830 820 736 (-10.2%) 7.7%
Taiwan 478 541 640 607 645 674 (4.4%) 7.1%
Malaysia 434 468 495 574 570 443 (-22.3%) 0.4%
Japan 381 380 406 402 419 417 (-0.6%) 1.8%
South Korea 109 121 106 92 93 69 (-26.3%) -8.9%
(Source) Motorcycle association of respective countries, CEIC, compiled by BTMU CRD Singapore
26 The Automobile and Motorcycle Industry in Thailand June 2015Ⅱ．The Motorcycle Industry in Thailand
1. Current Situation / Historical Motorcycle Sales
Sales declined for the Annual Motorcycle Sales in Thailand
second time in a row in (1,000 units)
2014 as domestic
2,500 40%
economic growth slowed
down. 2,000 20%
1,500 0%
Thailand continued to -2.4%
experience negative YoY 1,000 -20%
sales growth from mid- 500 -40%
2013. However, the rate
of decline has improved 0 -60%
2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014
gradually from late 2014
onwards. Motorcycle Sales (LHS) YoY (RHS) CAGR (10 years)
(Source) CEIC, compiled by BTMU CRD Singapore
Monthly Motorcycle Sales in Thailand
(1,000 units)
300 40%
250 20%
200 0%
150 -20%
100 -40%
50 -60%
0 -80%
Dec/2011 Jun/2012 Dec/2012 Jun/2013 Dec/2013 Jun/2014 Dec/2014
Motorcycle Sales (LHS) YoY (RHS)
(Source) CEIC, newspapers, compiled by BTMU CRD Singapore
27 The Automobile and Motorcycle Industry in Thailand June 2015Ⅱ．The Motorcycle Industry in Thailand
1. Current Situation / Motorcycle Production & Exports
Production declined from Annual Motorcycle Production in Thailand
2013 onwards as a result (1,000 units)
of weak domestic sales.
4,000 40%
3,000 20%
2,000 0%
-2.5%
1,000 -20%
0 -40%
2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014
Motorcycle Sales (LHS) YoY (RHS) CAGR (10 years)
(Source) CEIC, newspapers, compiled by BTMU CRD Singapore
Annual Motorcycle Exports in Thailand
(1,000 units)
2,000 80%
1,600 40%
1,200 -4.4% 0%
800 -40%
400 -80%
0 -120%
2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014
Motorcycle Sales (LHS) YoY (RHS) CAGR (10 years)
(Note) The export figure includes KD (Knock Down) kits for assembly elsewhere. Since production figure does not include KD kits, the export
figure differs from the difference between sales and production figures.
(Source) CEIC, newspapers, compiled by BTMU CRD Singapore
28 The Automobile and Motorcycle Industry in Thailand June 2015Ⅱ．The Motorcycle Industry in Thailand
2. Manufacturers’ Trends / Sales and Market Share by Manufacturer
Honda and Yamaha account Sales by Major Manufacturers
for about 90% of the total (1,000 units)
market. Recently, Honda 2,500 100% (Sales / LHS)
has managed to greatly
スクーター
Scooter
increase its share of the 2,000 80%
scooter segment. ファミリー
Family
1,500 60% (Market Share / RHS)
1,000 40% カワサキ
Kawasaki
スズキ
Suzuki
500 20%
ヤマハ
Yamaha
0 0% ホンダ
Honda
2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014
(Source) CEIC, newspapers, compiled by BTMU CRD Singapore
Motorcycle Market Share by Segment
＜Scooter＞ ＜Family＞
80% 100%
Honda Honda
80%
60%
Yamaha 60% Yamaha
40%
40%
Suzuki Suzuki
20%
20%
Kawasaki
0% 0% Kawasaki
2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014
(Source) CEIC, newspapers, compiled by BTMU CRD Singapore
29 The Automobile and Motorcycle Industry in Thailand June 2015Ⅱ．The Motorcycle Industry in Thailand
3. Future Outlook / Potential for Growth in the Motorcycle Market
Motorcycle demand in
Thailand is mainly for GDP per Capita and Motorcycle Ownership Rate
replacing old ones.
（GDP per Capita/USD）
The motorcycle market in
Thailand is saturated with 30,000
8,000
a motorcycle ownership
ratio of 3.6 people/unit.
Malaysia
10,000
6,000
China Thailand
4,000
Sri Lanka
Philippines Indonesia
2,000 Vietnam
India
Pakistan
Myanmar
-
0 1 unit per 50 1 unit per 20 1 unit per 10 1 unit per 5 1 unit per 2
people people people people people
（Motorcycle Ownership Rate）
(Note) The size of the circle in the graph indicates the size of population. GDP Per Capita and population are as of 2013.
Motorcycle Ownership Rate is also as of the end of 2012-end of 2013 (some estimates are included).
(Source) IMF, compiled by BTMU CRD Singapore
30 The Automobile and Motorcycle Industry in Thailand June 2015Ⅱ．The Motorcycle Industry in Thailand
3．Future Outlook / Motorcycle Sales
Sales are likely to report Future Outlook for Motorcycle Sales in Thailand
low single-digit growth from (1,000 units)
2015 onwards with a
pickup in demand in line 3,000 30%
with Thailand’s economic
recovery.
2,500 20%
2,000 10%
1,500 0%
1,000 -10%
500 -20%
0 -30%
2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017
Motorcycle Sales (LHS) YoY (RHS)
(Note) The figures from 2015 onwards are estimated by BTMU CRD Singapore.
(Source) CEIC, compiled by BTMU CRD Singapore
31 The Automobile and Motorcycle Industry in Thailand June 2015Ⅱ．The Motorcycle Industry in Thailand
3. Future Outlook / Production Capacity of Manufacturers
Manufacturers are likely to Motorcycle Production Capacity of Major Manufacturers
maintain their current
production capacity in the near
(1,000 units)
future. 0 200 400 600 800 1,000 1,200 1,400 1,600 1,800
Honda 1,650
＜Production Bases of Major Manufacturers＞
Yamaha 550
Suzuki 400
Kawasaki 180
(Source) Website of respective company, (Note) The figures of each company are the production capacity at the end of 2014.
newspapers, etc. (Source) Newspapers, compiled by BTMU CRD Singapore
32 The Automobile and Motorcycle Industry in Thailand June 2015This report has been prepared by The Bank of Tokyo-Mitsubishi UFJ, Ltd. (the “Bank”), for information only and is not intended for use by or distribution to any person or entity in any jurisdiction or country where such distribution or use would be contrary to law or regulations. The Bank and/or any person connected with it may make use of or may act upon the information contained in this report prior to the publication of this report to its customers. Neither the information nor the opinion expressed herein constitute or are to be construed as an offer, solicitation, advice or recommendation to buy or sell deposits, securities, futures, options or any other financial or investment products. This report has been prepared solely for informational purposes and does not attempt to address the specific needs, financial situation or investment objectives of any specific recipient. This report is based on information from sources deemed to be reliable but is not guaranteed to be accurate and should not be regarded as a substitute for the exercise of the recipient’s own judgment. The recipient should obtain separate independent professional, legal, financial, tax, investment or other advice, as appropriate. This report is based upon the analysts’ own views, therefore does not reflect the Bank’s official views. All views herein (including any statements and forecasts) are subject to change without notice, its accuracy is not guaranteed; it may be incomplete or condensed and it may not contain all material information concerning the entities referred to in this report. None of the Bank, its head office, branches, subsidiaries and affiliates is under any obligation to update this report. Historical performance does not guarantee future performance. Any forecast of performance is not necessarily indicative of future or likely performance of the any product mentioned in this report. The Bank and/or its directors, officers, and employees, from time to time, may have interest and/or underwriting commitment in the relevant securities mentioned herein or related instruments and/or may have a position or holding in such securities or related instruments as a result of engaging in such transactions. Furthermore, the Bank may have or have had a relationship with or may provide or have provided corporate finance or other services to any company mentioned herein. The information contained herein has been obtained from sources the Bank believed to be reliable but the Bank does not make any representation or warranty nor accept any responsibility or liability as to its accuracy, timeliness, suitability, completeness or correctness. Therefore, the inclusion of the valuations, opinions, estimates, forecasts, ratings or risk assessments described in this report is not to be relied upon as a representation and / or warranty by the Bank. The Bank, its head office, branches, subsidiaries and affiliates and the information providers accept no liability whatsoever for any direct, indirect and/or consequential loss or damage of any kind arising out of the use of all or any part of this report. The Bank retains copyright to this report and no part of this report may be reproduced or redistributed without the written permission of the Bank and the Bank, its head office, branches, subsidiaries or affiliates accepts no liability whatsoever to any third parties resulting from such distribution or re-distribution. Copyright 2015 The Bank of Tokyo-Mitsubishi UFJ Co., Ltd. All rights reserved. 33 The Automobile and Motorcycle Industry in Thailand June 2015
Corporate Research Division (Singapore)
The Bank of Tokyo-Mitsubishi UFJ, Ltd.
9 Raffles Place #01-01 Republic Plaza Singapore 048619
【Analysts】 Yuji Takekoshi: takekoshi@sg.mufg.jp
Kohei Yamaguchi: yamaguchi@sg.mufg.jp
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