The future for British breeding and its potential impact on the British racing industry - May 2021
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The future for British
breeding and its
potential impact on the
British racing industry
May 2021
thetba.co.uk
Contents Executive Summary 3 Recommendations 4 Background 5 Forecasting Future Impact 12 Summary 17 ANNEXES 18 A Bloodstock Trade B Foal Production C Great British Bonus Scheme Impact D TBA Breeder Surveys
Executive Summary
1 The 2018 Pricewaterhouse Cooper Economic Impact Survey (EIS) This could be exacerbated by changes in the ownership structure of
outlined the critical financial position of British thoroughbred breeding. three of the five major breeding operations due to the loss of their
66% of British breeders were operating at a loss, with the breeding founders in the early months of 2021. As a result, there will simply not
industry highly dependent on a small number of foreign-owned be enough horses to sustain a racing programme in Britain of the scale
operations, and the racing industry requiring the importation of half of the sport has grown used to.
the horses running in Flat races and two-thirds of those in
Jump events. 4 Accordingly, whilst the impact of the Covid-19 pandemic will increase
the rate of decline of a breeding industry that was already seriously
2 Since 2018, the outlook for British breeding, and the supply of horses challenged, without effective Covid recovery interventions the impact
generally for British racing, has deteriorated further, with trends on British racing in the medium and long term will be potentially
evident in 2018 continuing. This report collates the actual data from catastrophic. Numbers of horses in training will fall, along with
thoroughbred sales, breeder surveys, industry reports and Weatherbys, racecourse income, whilst revenue generation from media rights and
and provides informed forecasts of the potential consequences on the betting levy will enter a protracted period of decline. Since economic
British racing and breeding industries of the Covid-19 pandemic. This is activity of £4.1 billion p.a. is generated by racing, breeding and
on the basis of (a) what happened in the last major economic downturn associated activities, major impacts on the rural economy in particular
(the global financial crisis of 2008) and (b) what has happened since are inevitable.
the EIS was undertaken, in particular during the past year, in terms of
declining trends in numbers of horses in training, sales aggregates of 5 The introduction of the first stage of the Great British Bonus in 2020
Flat and Jump young stock, and reported foal crops and coverings of has had a positive impact on the situation and has mitigated some
mares. of the potential impact of the pandemic. However, this alone is not
enough. Urgent but carefully considered action is required from both
3 Whilst in the immediate aftermath of the Covid-19 pandemic the impact government and the entire racing industry on a number of initiatives
on racing will arise from its effect on owners, unable to support as many that together would rebuild confidence and encourage investment in
horses in training, and by the exodus of horses in training to France and British racing and breeding, so that the scenarios described above do
Ireland where prizemoney levels have been more resilient, the long-term not arise.
damage is most likely to be caused by its impact on breeders.
3
Recommendations
1 Capitalise on Britain’s international reputation for breeding and racing: 5 Get behind an industry-wide initiative to increase ownership: Each
Britain must maintain and build on its international standing as the ‘home’ industry stakeholder should give strong support to GBR in its agreed
of top-class breeding and racing by ensuring that British Pattern races objective of encouraging racehorse and breeding ownership at every level.
remain at the pinnacle of a clear pyramid structure, and are competitive at
the top-level worldwide. This will encourage inward investment, fuel the 6 Consider initiatives that work in other countries: The British racing
aspirations of British owners, and safeguard the positive benefits Britain’s industry should be proactive in adopting ideas that have been found to
reputation brings to all levels and participants in the sport. work in other racing nations when they appear likely to be of benefit here.
For example, this might include the introduction of a race programme to
2 Ensure a competitive and diverse racing programme: The race aid earlier development of Jump horses (as in France and Ireland).
programme should be reviewed to ensure alignment with the
anticipated decline in the horse population, whilst maintaining the
attractions of British racing as a spectator sport and therefore betting
“The first thing that will change is due to what has happened to
proposition by providing a diverse racing programme. This should the economy, not just in our country but all around the world.
include competitive racing over varying distances and disciplines, with That is going to have a significant impact. We’re an entertainment
particular focus on strengthening and supporting middle-distance business but also a luxury goods department and, as everyone
events, stayers races and steeplechases.
knows, it’s very expensive for anybody to have a horse. Syndicates
3 Improve the viability of British breeding: British breeding should be will become a far bigger part of the industry but unless you have
supported as the prime source of horses for British racing. This can be proper prize-money you won’t encourage too many of them.
underpinned by the extension of GBB to provide compelling reasons
to buy, race and retain British bred horses under both Flat and Jump “I think we’ll see a dramatic restructuring of racing... It’s also
codes, and promote domestic racehorse ownership.
clear to me the horse population will shrink because people
4 Ensure united industry action to achieve urgent Levy reform: Use simply won’t be able to afford to own horses in the numbers,
the findings of this report to enhance the industry’s call for swift we see now… There’s another huge factor, a lot of the big
government action to implement reform of the Levy, emphasising its owners aren’t young people anymore.”
‘levelling up’ implications, via a Levy reform group that is representative
of and supported by all stakeholders. John Gosden, 14 June 2020, Racing Post
4
Background
In recent years the TBA has commissioned two independent Economic
Impact Studies by PwC to ascertain the health of the British breeding
industry. These were published in 2014 and 2018, with the latter study
funded by HBLB and the Racing Foundation.
The 2018 study confirmed the significant contribution that the British
Breeding Industry makes to UK GDP and employment, with nearly 90% of
its impact accrued to the rural economy.
The 2018 survey, however, also revealed evidence of significant problems
in British breeding that had worsened since the 2014 study. Amongst its
key findings were:
• 66% of breeders were operating at a loss, up from 45% in 2013, with • British breeding has a high dependency on a small number of major
profitability being particularly poor for all Jump breeders and the middle operations owned by investors based overseas. Any movement by such
to low end of the Flat market. operations away from Great Britain would have major ramifications to
the British breeding industry.
• Small breeders were particularly likely to be losing money, even though
such breeders were responsible for producing circa one-third of the • Around 50% of the horses racing in British Flat races were produced
British foal crop. Within the previous five years a net loss of 8% of abroad, with more than two-thirds of those running over Jumps being
breeding entities had occurred, largely among smaller operations. bred in other nations, principally Ireland and France.
• The average return on capital for breeders was between 1% and 3%,
The study highlighted that British racing and breeding may be facing what
well below that normally considered appropriate for viable businesses,
PwC described as ‘the perfect storm’ without significant intervention, at a
placing the industry at serious risk of ongoing decline.
time when the growing size of the British fixture list and race programme is
regarded as a significant driver of industry revenues.
5
Summary of British thoroughbred breeding’s contribution to UK GDP and employment in 2017.
~90% £80m
2017 of the direct economic impact
accrued to the rural economy
Total employee compensation
£62m 90%
Direct economic contribution of total employment within GB breeding
£427m accrued to the rural economy
Total contribution to GDP
Over
3,500
{
Jobs in the
58% industry
Breed for racing
and sales
£293m 15,500
32% Supplier expenditure
3,318 Breed for just racing
Additional jobs supported
by the industry via supply
Breeders
10% 4,778 chain spending and
employee spending
Breed for just sales GB born foals in 2017
Note: All estimates based on data from PwC confidential survey and industry data. Source: PwC analysis
6
A perfect storm...
“In my position as a stallion manager, I am able to see the
health of the UK breeding industry first hand. The traditional
small breeder in the UK is heading towards extinction. The
1 Ageing demographic
average age of British breeders is increasing year on year, there
• Average age of GB
breeders is growing year are very few of the younger generation of British breeders
on year. 2 Reduced profitability coming through to replace them.”
• The industry has • Vast majority of small to EIS Survey Respondent 2018
struggled to attract a medium sized breeders
younger demographic are unprofitable but 3 Operators exit
to replace them. are involved due to
• Should the economics
their love of racing and
• Faced with higher of breeding continue to
breeding.
property prices and worsen some breeders 4 Supply line
limited wage growth, • Many medium sized may no longer be • Any decline in breeders
younger generations are commercial operations sustainable, resulting in would have significant
saving for housing and are also struggling, their exit. implications for the GB
less likely to join the with the economics
• A negative economic foal crop, given that GB 5 Diminished product
industry in future when deteriorating the middle
shock such as an bred horses account
market. • Further reductions in
they have additional for approximately 45%
unfavourable Brexit the number of runners
income. of horses in training in
outcome could force per race will mean less
operators to exit. Britain.
competitive racing,
• Growing success of impacting on betting
HIT increasing number product quality and
of horses sold to funding from the
developing markets. gambling industry.
7The suggestion is sometimes made that a decline in production in the Global foal crop 2006 - 2018*
UK could simply be met by importing more horses from overseas, but
this is neither strategically attractive nor a realistic option. On a strategic 90,000
level, British racing should ensure greater certainty in regard to its supply
80,000
chain from domestic operations, whether for economic, political or equine
welfare reasons. In addition, British breeders are not alone in reducing 70,000
foal production, as a worrying downward trend in global foal production
60,000
indicates a systemic issue.
50,000
Between 2006 and 2014 the global foal crop fell by 31% to reach its lowest 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018
point in 2014. There was then a slight recovery but production was again in
* GB, IRE, FR, USA, AUS and JPN Source: Weatherbys
decline before the Covid-19 pandemic, and indications are that other major
breeding nations are being similarly impacted. France is the only nation
to buck the trend of decline, boosted by an attractive structure of prize
money and incentive schemes. However, despite these self-help initiatives, few positive racing news items of 2020. The British European Breeders’
the impact of the Covid-19 pandemic will be accelerating the timeframe Fund (British EBF), funded by contributions from stallion studs, continues to
and projected rate of decline of an industry that was already facing serious provide significant financial support to the sport, despite the impact of the
challenges. pandemic, with £1.8m p.a. expended on prize money and sponsorship.
Following the publication of the 2018 Economic Impact Study, a cross- However, despite the success of these initiatives, involving various degrees
industry strategy group was formed and a number of initiatives instigated of self-help from the breeding industry, the impact of the Covid-19
to address the issues raised, the most significant being the Great British pandemic is highly likely to accelerate the projected scale and rate of
Bonus Scheme. This was implemented in June 2020 and was one of the decline of an industry that was already facing serious challenges.
8“We are owner/breeders, so poor prize money and reduced
yearling prices both had an impact in 2020. We had to sell
more stock than we might have done in a normal year.
We retained a small share in a yearling that we sold to a
syndicate, rather than training the whole horse. We also sold a
good horse in training that we could have kept if prize money
had been better. We will spend less on stud fees in 2021 than
we would normally have done.
So, we are keeping going by the skin of our teeth, but
desperately need prize money to improve and a more buoyant
middle market for yearlings in 2021.”
TBA Survey Respondent
9Impact of the 2008 Global Financial Crisis
The most relevant basis on which to model the likely impact of the This fall in prices for young stock immediately led to dramatic reductions in
Covid-19 pandemic is via an analysis of how the 2008 global financial crisis foal crop sizes in Britain and Ireland. From 2008 to 2012 Irish foal crops fell
affected British racing and breeding. by 39% and British foal crops by 26%, in line with the greater reductions in
sales aggregates in Ireland. The bulk of the reduction occurred in the first
From 2007 to 2008 sales aggregates of young stock in Britain and Ireland two years. Thereafter, a gradual recovery ensued, but even 10 years later
fell between 24% and 52%: crop sizes were more than 20% below those found in 2008.
The decline in foal crops was accompanied by rather smaller falls in the key
Sales aggregates 2008 v 2007 metric of the number of starts in British racing.
• Number of starts fell by 6% from 2008 to 2010, and then began to
recover in 2011.
-24% • By 2012, however, the impact of the smaller crop sizes began to be felt,
with too few horses to meet the needs of the racing programme.
Accordingly, recovery in the number of starts stalled. A total reduction
-42%
of 35% in Anglo/Irish foal crops led to the number of starts falling back
-46%
-49%
-52% -50% to -11% by 2014.
GB GB IRE IRE IRE IRE
yearling foal yearling foal store foal • Only when crop sizes began to recover did the number of starts once
sales sales sales sales sales sales
more begin to rise.
Flat Jump
10Registered foals
12419
12004
10992
10214
9569
9381 9182
8793
7718 7999
7588 7546
6874 7118
6369 6556
5914 5920
5540 5515 5485
5320 5225 5198 5233 5154
4665 4663 4823 4470
4366 4328
1990 1992 1994 1996 1998 2000 2002 2004 2006 2008 2010 2012 2014 2016 2018 2020
GB IRE
Source: Weatherbys
11Even ten years after the crisis, when economic recovery had long been Because of the lag between a decision being taken to mate a mare and
completed, the number of starts still remained 5% below its previous high. stallion to produce a racehorse and its appearance on the racecourse,
damage suffered by the racing programme from an economic shock can
This was not a coincidence, given that the number of foals produced was persist for many years after the shock itself has ceased to impact the
no longer rising whilst still remaining more than 20% below 2008 levels. majority of owners. This happened after 2008, and it is almost certain to
The chart below demonstrates what happened. happen after 2020.
Impact of 2008 financial crisis
0%
-5%
-10%
-15%
Reduction vs 2008
TOTAL STARTS GB/IRE FOALS
-20%
-25%
-30%
-35%
-40%
1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11
Year after economic crisis: year 1 = 2008
12Forecasting Future Impact
Between the publication of the 2018 Economic Impact Study and the start The fall in Great Britain’s GDP in 2020 was -9.9%, the biggest decline in
of the pandemic, signs of downturn were already emerging. As shown in the over 300 years and more than twice the fall experienced in the global
chart on page 12, foal production had begun to contract in 2018 and 2019, financial crisis of 2008. Disturbingly, we are starting from a much smaller
and falling sales aggregates in 2019 (shown in Annex A) meant that further total Anglo Irish foal crop (which makes up the majority of British racing’s
falls in future production became likely. runners) than was the case in 2008, with 2019 levels still more than 20%
down on 2008.
However, 2020 brought a much greater decline in sales revenues. Across
the UK and Ireland, total revenues from sales of unraced thoroughbreds fell The chart (page 14) illustrates the potential problem in terms of expected
by over £70 million in a single year. Previous experience of such declines average field sizes for Flat races, given the same number of races as in
suggests that breeders will react in the obvious way, by cutting production. 2019 (the last pre-pandemic year). It is based upon assumptions of foal crop
Given similar trends on a global basis, the gap between the number of reductions in Britain and Ireland that are generally smaller than occurred
horses needed for the racing programme and the number being produced after the global financial crisis of 2008, when British and Irish foal crops fell
cannot be met by imports from other countries. by 26% and 39% respectively.
The effects of the Covid-19 pandemic are still evolving, but are expected to It assumes a four-year recovery in demand for runners driven by improving
include: owner economics, so that at the end of this period average field sizes might
be able to return to previous levels. However, the impact of smaller foal
• Long-term impact on owners, many of whose businesses are still
crops will mean that there are too few horses for this to be possible. Foal
suffering the effects of lockdowns, in an environment where prize
production will recover more gradually (perhaps over twice the number of
money has been cut and the social pleasures of racing have been
years) – and this only after evidence of higher sales prices emerges – since
virtually eliminated.
there is inevitably a lag between improved sales prices and the ability of
• Effects on breeders of reduced investments by owners and those acting breeders to select mares in response.
on their behalf in the stock they offer for sale.
Similar effects are forecast for Jump racing, although here even larger
• The implications for the racing industry of a scenario in which fewer falls in foal production are expected on the basis of the aftermath of the
people race horses in the short-term and, as a result, breeders produce 2008 financial crisis. However, the impacts of falling Jump foal crops are
many fewer horses in the medium term. inevitably delayed by circa three years from those for Flat racing.
13Impact of smaller crop sizes on average runners per race: Flat
10.0
9.4 9.4 9.4
9.4 Runners, no foal crop impact
9.2 9.2
8.9 9.1 9.1
9.0 8.9 8.9 Runners, foal crop impact:
8.7 9.0 GB -10%, IRE -25%, 2.5% less
8.8 races 2026 to 7.5% 2028
8.5 8.6
8.6 8.3
8.2
8.2 Runners, foal crop impact:
8.0 GB: -20%, IRE -25%
7.8
7.9 7.7 Runners, foal crop impact:
GB: -25%, IRE -30%
7.3 7.2 Runners, foal crop impact:
7.0 GB: -30%, IRE -35%
6.0
2019 2021 2022 2023 2024 2025 2026 2027 2028
14The chart shows forecasts of average number of runners in British Flat • The probability is then, as occurred after 2008/9, that recovery in foal
races from 2019 to 2028 (2020 is omitted as figures for this year are production will only commence once sales prices begin to improve
distorted by the effects of lockdown) as a function of falls in investment by – and this will only happen when owners return to pre-crisis levels
owners and reduced foal production by the British and Irish breeders that of investment. Given that most major sales of young stock are held
generate the overwhelming majority of runners in these races. Falls in field after the covering season, a lag of at least two years seems inevitable
sizes of between 13% and 23% on 2019 levels are likely. between a recovery in demand/higher sales prices and recovery in
foal production. Given the damage done to breeding operations in the
Within the chart: meantime, crop sizes will then increase only gradually.
• The brown line (top) indicates the likely average number of runners • The purple line may be the best case in the absence of other action,
each year on the assumption that falls in foal production have no effect. this being that falls in foal production are similar to those resulting from
There is a significant reduction in 2022 in particular as owners feel the economic consequences of the 2008 financial crisis, reaching -20%
the impact of the Covid-19 recession, followed by gradual recovery in Great Britain and -25% in Ireland. A possible worst case, in which
as business conditions return to previous levels and both business crops fall by ten percentage points more than this, is indicated by the
confidence and disposable income recover. red line, with the orange line showing the effects of 25% and 30%
reductions respectively. Initially these track the brown line as the effects
• The red, blue and purple lines (from the bottom) indicate how potential
of falling foal crops are yet to be felt.
falls in the production of Flat foals might affect British racing over the
same period. Given that the initial UK lockdown occurred at a time • However, from 2025 onwards, as the racing programme is significantly
when many breeders were committed to 2020 coverings, a relatively affected by smaller crops from 2022 onwards, average field sizes (and
small reduction in the 2021 foal crop (only one-fifth of the final in all likelihood the scale of the racing programme) are constrained by
decline) is forecast. The greater impact will arise in 2022 and 2023 too few horses, falling for the next four years rather than recovering. In
after breeders take account of weaknesses in the market for foals and all cases field sizes are well below recent levels (2017: 9.2, 2018: 9.2,
yearlings last year and almost certainly this, following which a major 2019: 9.4), inevitably impacting betting turnover.
retrenchment in production seems likely.
15• The green line indicates how falls in average field sizes might be So, although on grounds of general economics average field sizes ought
mitigated by actions taken to effect minor rationalisation of the racing to have recovered to pre-Covid-19 levels by 2025/2026, unless remedial
programme and to encourage increased foal production in this country. action is taken this cannot happen because there will not be enough
It models the effects of (1) a reduction in the number of races by horses to make these starts. Medium-term shortfalls of more than 10-
2.5% in 2026 rising to 7.5% by 2028 and (2) early announcements of 20% p.a. in racing activity can be anticipated as a result of reduced foal
additional GBB bonuses from 2023 onwards, potentially limiting the production in Britain and Ireland. Such shortfalls will have enormous
maximum fall in British foal production (to 10%) and reducing the time consequences both inside and outside racing, viz:
taken for production to return to previous levels (from eight years,
• Reduction in racing’s income from betting Levy and picture rights,
as after 2008, to five). Given that HBLB funding of GBB prizes goes
presently totalling £250 million p.a., along with the likelihood of smaller
overwhelmingly to the owners and connections of winning horses, the
racecourse income due to a reduced racing programme;
availability of additional bonuses is also likely to accelerate recovery
in ownership levels, further improving average field sizes beyond the • Reduction in racing’s contribution to the rural economy, presently
levels shown. totalling £4 billion p.a.;
• Reduction in breeding’s contribution to the rural economy, presently
totalling £450 million p.a.
“It is imperative that prize money is increased substantially.”
TBA Survey Respondent
16Summary
In response to the problems envisaged above and in order to mitigate their
serious adverse impacts on the economics of British racing/breeding, and
the many industries that are in part dependent on them, the Thoroughbred
Breeders’ Association strongly recommends that all racing stakeholders
act as a matter of urgency on the recommendations outlined earlier in
this report.
“So far, we have managed to keep things the same having had
a surprisingly reasonable sales but very concerned about the
next couple of years following Brexit and Covid-19 and all the
troubles facing racing, prize money, Gambling Review etc. Think
2021 is going to be much more challenging than 2020 and the
future is not rosy at the moment.”
TBA Survey Respondent
17Annex A – Bloodstock Trade
Prior to the Covid-19 pandemic, turnover at UK sales houses had peaked in by over £70 million in a single year. The likelihood is that sales aggregates
2017, and was already in decline; the decline accelerated in 2020. In total (which were heavily propped up in 2020 by investments by Godolphin and
over the last three years sales turnover has shrunk by over 20%. Tattersalls Shadwell), will fall still further in 2021, with concomitant effects on breeder
turnover is indicated by the index on the left, Goffs UK to the right. profitability in 2021, coverings in 2022 and the foal crop of 2023.
The key metrics showing the situation to date are:
Annual turnover at Tattersalls UK and Goffs UK 2010-2020
Sales aggregrates 2020 v 2019
£360,000,000 £60,000,000
£270,000,000 £45,000,000 0%
-13%
£180,000,000 £30,000,000 -11%
-15% -14%
-25%
£90,000,000 £15,000,000 -25%
-33%
-38%
£0 £0 -36%
-40%
2010 2012 2014 2016 2018 2020
-50%
Tattersalls Goffs UK GB GB IRE IRE GB GB IRE IRE
yearling foal yearling foal store foal store foal
sales sales sales sales sales sales sales sales
As the effects of the pandemic were felt, investment by owners and trainers Flat Jump
in young stock inevitably fell, with serious declines in sales aggregates in
* Jump sales for foals took place prior to the UK lockdown in 2020 and so have not been
both Britain and Ireland, for foals, yearlings and Jump stores alike. Across included in this chart.
the two nations total revenues from sales of unraced thoroughbreds fell
18In general, these sales figures are slightly less depressed than those found
in the year of the global financial crisis, but at that time recovery in Flat Total exports of horse, by year
4,000
aggregates began immediately afterwards and for Jump sales one year later.
3500+?
The full economic effects of the Covid-19 pandemic are still being felt. 3,500
3345
3014 3016
3,000
2825
The 2018 EIS had highlighted that breeder profitability was already 2619
2,500
challenged, and further independent analysis by breeders Chris Budgett and
Colin Bryce of 2020 sales in UK and Ireland has reinforced this by indicating 2,000
that 51% of yearlings sold in 2020 did not recover their costs. 1,500
1,000
Given the ongoing economic damage inflicted by the pandemic, both
outside racing and to racing income and prize money, it would seem rather 500
optimistic not to anticipate further declines at sales of both Flat and Jump 0
stock in 2021. 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020
Actual Projection
In parallel, the appeal of the British racehorse to other racing jurisdictions is Source: BHA
growing. Emerging racing nations, such as Saudi Arabia and Bahrain, do not
have the breeding programmes required to produce high level horses which There has been a strong positive, linear correlation in the growth of exports
run in these top-end races, so importing such animals is the only option from Britain in recent years. All anecdotal feedback from industry stakeholders
at present. Other jurisdictions do not breed for the entirety of their racing is that this trend has continued in 2020, which could see exports rise to over
programme, such as Australia, where there is a shortage of middle distance to 3,500 horses. There is a significant lag in the reporting of these numbers via
Weatherbys but even by the beginning of December 2020, exports had been
staying stock so the use of imported stock is the only way to plug the hole. recorded, with the busiest transaction periods yet to come (Dec-Feb).
19Export of higher-quality horses, by year
180
160
Rating band 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019
140
90-94 40 46 42 30 50 37 44 33 47 60
120 95-99 40 35 30 35 41 27 26 32 27 33
Volume of horses
100 100-104 35 34 25 36 29 22 26 29 23 34
80 105-109 22 22 17 18 22 21 16 13 27 21
60 110-114 15 18 13 5 10 6 4 8 4 10
40
115-119 8 3 4 0 5 2 2 3 6 5
120+ 2 2 1 0 3 1 0 3 1 0
20
162 160 132 124 160 116 118 121 135 163
0
2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020
90-94 95-99 100-104 105-109 110-114 115-119 120+
Export of horses rated 90+ reached an all time high in 2019, with considerable growth at the 90-94 level. During November 2020, the BHA canvassed the top 50 trainers
– by prize money from 2020 – in the event to get a handle on the current situation, particularly with regard to higher-quality horses. From the 32 replies received, we
already know of at least 156 higher-quality horses to have been exported abroad. That level alone is in excess of the volume that would normally be expected at this
stage, with the expectation of more to be added.
Source: BHA
20At the same time other racing domiciles are increasing their investment horses being bred primarily for shorter distances is reversed, the gene pool
in British and Irish-bred horses. Trainers in Australia and Hong Kong for horses with soundness and stamina to compete over longer distances
are constantly on the look-out for horses that might participate in their will continue to decline to a point of no return. The numerous initiatives
more valuable racing programmes; US trainers regularly purchase high- brought in to encourage the breeding and racing of middle distance
class prospects from the major yearling and horses in training sales at and staying horses from 2017 is beginning to have a positive impact as
Newmarket; and France Galop has undertaken a serious advertising illustrated in the 2020 TBA Stayers Study update. This included:
campaign extolling the benefits of French prize money and premiums.
• An increased number of GB-breds in Long and Extended distance
The likelihood is that in a Covid-19-induced crisis as regards the numbers
categories in World Rankings.
of horses in training, we will be net losers rather than beneficiaries of the
international trade in thoroughbreds. • An increase in the number of mares being covered by stallions who had
won over at least 1m2f–19.4% in 2017 v 29.9% in 2019
Evidence of this was provided in the recently BHA produced Pattern report
indicating that the racing programme in this country is already under • Trade for yearlings sired by a stallion that won over 1m4f+ has remained
pressure, and that the balance of power is shifting in international racing: consistent since falling heavily in 2016 –increases have been witnessed
by those sired by a 1m2f-winning stallion, although this can be
• The UK’s share of the Top 50 Group Ones by rating reduced from
attributed mostly to Frankel.
16 to 11
• 55 races in the world are worth over £1m but only seven are in Europe. There is however an increasing number of stallions represented at the
Tattersalls October Yearling Sale that won over less than 1m2f, reflecting
The TBA has also highlighted the vital importance of promoting diversity continued commercial demand and re-emphasizing how a sustained and
in the breed and race programme, through the 2015 TBA Study of Stayers long term commitment to investing in the staying programme is required.
and Staying races and subsequent updates. Unless the current trends of
21Annex B – Foal Production and the UK Broodmare Band
Breeders have historically adjusted production to meet demand, albeit with
a time lag, as evidenced in the Background section of this report describing GB stallions registered for coverings 2017–2020
the experience of the 2008 economic recession. 200
159 152 152
This graph shows all stallions
Foal crop numbers in Britain and Ireland this decade peaked in 2017, the 200
150 138 registered for coverings
current 4YO crop. Since 2017, the numbers of registered foals in both
No. of stallions
159 152 152
standing in Great Britain.
countries have gradually reduced as sales prices began to fall. Since 2017 150
100 138
*NB: The 2020 figure
No. of stallions
the combined British and Irish foal crop has declined by 5.6%. will increase as stallion
100
50 notifications are frequently
The 2020 covering season occurred in the early days of the Covid-19 received in the following year
50
0 and the figures here are as
crisis so 2021 foal crop numbers should not be seriously affected. The
2017 2018 2019 2020 31/12/20.
expectation, based on covering certificates issued in 2020, is for a further
0 Year
4% decline in GB foal crop in 2021. 2017 2018 2019 2020
Year
Significant reductions in sales income for breeders in 2020 will inevitably GB10,000
active broodmares 2017–2020
9,070 8,945
lead to retrenchment and reduced coverings in 2021 and a smaller foal crop 8,571 8,297
in 2022. A recent survey by the TBA has indicated that over 50% of British 10,000
8,000 8,945 9,070
8,571 This chart shows all registered
No. of broodmares
breeding operations have already suffered an adverse financial impact and 8,297
8,000 broodmares, in known
that many of these are expecting to reduce the scale of their operations, 6,000
ownership, that have either
No. of broodmares
both in terms of staff employed and numbers of horses produced. produced a foal, been covered
6,000
4,000
and/or for which a result
The Weatherbys 2020 Fact Book provides further evidence of a trend of has been received in the last
2,000
4,000
two breeding seasons. These
decline across the bloodstock sector:
figures exclude those which
2,000
0 are known to have been
2017 2018 2019 2020 retired, died or permanently
0 Year exported.
2017 2018 2019 2020
Year
22Annex C – Great British Bonus Scheme impact
The situation has improved in 2020 in one regard, the initial introduction (ii) Sales
of the Great British Bonus in June 2020. The scheme has enjoyed wide
The main impact has been improved returns in the middle and lower
industry support and is funded by a combination of Levy Board grants and
tiers of the market with key highlights including:
registration income. It aims to increase demand for British-bred fillies and
mares and so address a major problem of British breeders, inadequate Goffs Doncaster August: GBB registered fillies made 40% more than
demand for fillies. This is to be achieved by paying significant bonuses for non-registered GBB eligible fillies;
the breeders, owners and connections of British-bred fillies nominated to
Tattersalls Ireland: GBB registered filly average was £23,800 whereas
the scheme, in order to influence buyers to seek out such horses and in
overall sale average (all colts and fillies) £19,768;
turn improve the confidence of British breeders in the future prospects of
their businesses. Tattersalls Ascot: GBB registered filly average £13,187 whereas overall
sale average £11,534;
GBB has already begun to achieve these objectives in changing the
behaviour of agents, trainers and owners to look for fillies that they Tattersalls Book 3: GBB registered fillies made 11% more than non-
might formerly have disregarded. The two earliest indicators of this are registered GBB eligible fillies;
registrations for the scheme and sales prices for GBB registered fillies. Tattersalls Book 4: GBB registered filly average £4,733 whereas overall
sale average £3,800;
(i) Percentage of GB filly foal crop registered to the scheme
Tattersalls December: GBB registered filly average £33,441 whereas
76% of the 2020 filly foal crop registered for the scheme, which was
overall sale average £32,675.
above expectations, illustrating the core support and attraction of the
scheme and the success in marketing the benefits of registration to
breeders. 61% of the 2019 crop completed their yearling registrations,
but it is noticeable that the larger Flat breeders were being selective in
which horses they registered at the yearling stage, suggesting increased
numbers put in training abroad.
23Annex D – TBA Breeder Surveys
The TBA breeder surveys in April 2020 and January 2021 showed similar “We know the difficulties ahead and united we must face them
patterns of response. However, one area where there was a marked
and see seriously improved funding for racing, encouraging new
difference between the two surveys was the number of breeders who are
aware that their finances are being affected by Covid-19. This increased
breeders and owners into the business. Even tougher times
from 35% in April 2020 to 52% in January 2021. ahead we fear, but we must remain resolute.”
TBA Survey Respondent
36% of breeders were sure there would be a long-term impact, however,
22% were still unsure. Of the rest 8% see an opportunity to grow their
breeding operations/interests and 33% do not expect any change.
The pandemic is already affecting employment, with further reductions
expected. Of those responding who are employers, 19% had already
reduced staff hours and 33% expect the size of team they employ to reduce
in the next 12 months.
The breeders who expect to cut back operations are currently responsible
for a pool of nearly 3,000 breeding and racing stock. The approximate
percentage of breeders who plan to reduce the number of mares they own
was 25%, 17% of breeders will reduce the number of yearlings and foals
they keep, and 25% of breeders also state they will reduce their number of
horses in training.
24@TheTBA_GB thetba.co.uk
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