The Future of Automotive Mobility - Uncertain drivers take global automotive markets to a crossroads Global Automotive Mobility Study - 3rd ...
←
→
Page content transcription
If your browser does not render page correctly, please read the page content below
The Future of Automotive Mobility Uncertain drivers take global automotive markets to a crossroads Global Automotive Mobility Study - 3rd Edition February 2021
Content
Introduction 3
1. Car ownership - more important than ever? 5
2. Mobility services - a sleeping giant? 8
3. Autonomous cars - a step too far? 11
4. Time to switch on the ‘electric customer’? 14
5. Are we ready for the online car lot? 19
6. The China phenomenon 21
7. Drawing conclusions for the future of automotive mobility 22
Authors:
Klaus Schmitz Wolf-Dieter Hoppe
Partner Partner
AMG, Munich AMG, Munich
schmitz.klaus@adlittle.com hoppe.wolf-dieter@adlittle.com
A special acknowledgment to the study team: Astrid Busse, Konrad Ellsässer, Jasmin Müller, Oskar Qvist, Florian Saeftel,
Simon Schmidtke, Philipp Seidel
Introduction Arthur D. Little’s third Global Automotive Mobility Study is our strategic, expert analysis of global automotive markets, including a global survey with responses from over 8,500 end customers. Our previous study, in 2018, painted a picture of an industry taking its first steps towards electric, perhaps dreaming of autonomous mobility services, but primarily doing ‘business as usual’. That cannot be said two years on. It is not that the sector is in turmoil, but rather that it is confused and somewhat unsure about where it is heading, as established trends meet new, emerging ones. For instance, there has been a dramatic change in demand for cars and how people perceive ownership of them. So, while cars are still playing an important role in our lives, particularly during the COVID-19 pandemic when the protection and independence they offer is of particular value, many of us are open to the idea of using new, alternative transport solutions. It seems that we want the utility of a vehicle rather than necessarily ownership of it. And also very interestingly, we are observing an increasing bi-polarity in the market we have not seen before to any great extent, with Chinese car owners reacting differently compared with other parts of the world. Is this ‘bi-polarity’ a sign of a divergence that will continue or will there be a coalescence of thinking and behavior in the future? The jury is still out, but it is a factor any global automotive player’s strategy must take into account. So, what can we say about the future of automotive mobility? 3
1. Car ownership - more important than
ever?
There is no doubt: market and technology trends, combined no more or less important than it is today, one-third did expect it
with the economic consequences of the coronavirus pandemic to be more important. In China, that figure rose to almost 50%,
have led us to adjust our mid-term outlook for annual sales of putting it at odds with Europe, where only 30% shared this
passenger cars, which we now think will be between 97m and view.
103m units worldwide by 2030.
The expectation is that as the pandemic recedes, these
This represents a market that is still growing but only at a numbers will fall back somewhat, though the perceived
compound rate of 2% - a slight increase on current figures, but importance of car ownership overall will remain high.
a significant drop compared with recent prognoses and our
forecast of two years ago. Irrespective of the importance they put on owning a car, many
respondents admitted that they had or were planning to change
Of course, 2020 has been an exceptional year for everyone. So, their car purchase plans in the near future. So, of those who had
in the short-term, COVID-19 has influenced people’s thinking planned to buy a car in 2020, 32% had postponed that decision,
about car ownership. Now, for instance, nearly half (48%) of all 14% planned to downgrade their vehicle ambitions, and at least
respondents globally think that owning a car is more important 5% said they would cancel their purchase plans completely.
than it was before the pandemic. A probable result of the sense
of security we get from being inside our own ‘socially distanced Such choices will further squeeze the mid-size segment of the
transport bubble’ rather than having to use public transport. car parc, something that may have a particular impact on the
Chinese market, which has been the engine behind new car
However, this overall figure conceals a wide variation. So, while sales globally.
half those in our study thought car ownership would in future be
Figure 1: Car ownership importance now
Mobility profile and importance of car
The ongoing COVID-19 pandemic has led many consumers to value car ownership more highly since the crisis
How does the current COVID-19 crisis affect your opinion on the importance of having a car?
% of respondents; single choice
100%
10 7 11 8
Much more important 13 13 14 16 12 12 15 15 15 13
18
25 20 16
27 27 18
31 23 22
More important 35 31 27
43
60 62
34 56 58 56
48 52 49 51
43
Same (no change) 45 48
40
Less important 17
10 11 7 12 9 8 9 9 11
Much less important 5 4 7
7
2 1 3 3 4 2 3 2 3 3 3 4 3 1
Source: Arthur D. Little analysis
Note: Global average weighted by population
5
Figure 2: Car ownership importance in the future
Mobility profile and importance of car
While half of respondents expect no change throughout the next 10 years, more than one-third of global respondents expects car
ownership to be more or much more important than today
Do you expect that in 10 years, possessing a car will be as important to you as it is today?
% of respondents; single choice
4 5 6 5 100%
Much more important 10 11 10 8 9 8 9 7 7
15
14 12 14 11 12 12
15 15 10
18 18
More important 24
19
32
51 54 52
42 57 55
49 53 59 59
34
58
Same (no change) 49
46
19 22 23
21 18
20 16 18 22
Less important 15 16
12 12
Much less important 8 13 10 11
5 7 8 7 9 7 5 5 9
3 3
Source: Arthur D. Little analysis
Note: Global average weighted by population
There will, of course, be the release of pent-up demand post- As it is, many of us don’t use our cars that much anyway —
pandemic that will stimulate the market, however, it will be the about 25% of car owners drive less than 2,000 km a year,
overall state of the worldwide economy and how it recovers that suggesting that for the most part, their vehicles are spending
will be the deciding factor when it comes to future sales growth. much of their time parked up on the drive or street or in the
garage.
Though enthusiasm for car ownership shows no real sign of 2
abating generally, there may be clues that we could be adjusting So, are more of us willing to give up the comfort, convenience
our relationship slightly. Again, this could be a result of COVID-19 and flexibility we get from owning a car? Again, perhaps. In
and the consequent rise in homeworking. Has the temporary our survey, more people said they would consider giving up
demise of the daily commute had an influence? Perhaps. their primary car, while a similar percentage said they would be
willing to relinquish their second vehicle.
Figure 3: Car ownership and the environment
Mobility profile and importance of car
A large percentage of respondents in most of the countries surveyed claim that the political climate and environmental activism have
caused them to reconsider car ownership
Have activism and/or the political climate caused a shift in your mindset regarding the importance of having a car?
% of respondents; single choice
7
7 13
YES 7 10 9
44 8 7 8 7 4 5
34 31 27 8
23 24 22 22 20 20 21 20 13 10 5
16 14 18 13 13 18 17 16 19 18 12
22 28 24 24
NO 9 4 5 5
15 13 21 7
13 14 14 24 38
47 41 49
35 34 32 37 36 37 37 35
31 31 26
NEUTRAL
Not at all Not much Somewhat Very much
Source: Arthur D. Little analysis
Note: Global average weighted by population
6
2. Mobility services - a sleeping giant?
If people are willing to give up their cars, at least to some Over four in ten respondents (43%) said they might use a
extent, perhaps they will be looking to switch to alternative service like a robo-taxi, however, this was a considerably lower
mobility services, especially as our research indicates that many figure than in our last study. It is hard to say how fears about
are increasingly concerned about the impact of their vehicle use COVID-19 may have impacted respondents’ thinking.
on the environment and climate change.
So, is this being reflected in any significant behavioral changes?
Over two-thirds of those living in urban areas told us that they
had used a ride-hailing service, while more than a third had
experience of ride-sharing. But in rural areas, of course, these
figures are obviously much lower given the scarcity of such
services.
Figure 4: Mobility
New mobility services
New mobility services are widely popular in China, but still a niche in Europe and the US – ride-hailing is by far the most relevant service
Which types of new mobility services have you used?
Multiple choice – only urban respondents
70% While Europe and US are reluctant
to use new mobility services, in
56% 53% China they are very popular
48% (especially for ride-hailing)
45%
38% 37% 39%
31% Ride-hailing is the most adopted
29% 28%
22% 23% 24% service – 56% of respondents across
22% 19%
16% 17% all markets have already used
14% 12% 15% 14%
providers such as Uber or Freenow
7% 9%
Although new mobility is generally
Ride-hailing Ride-sharing Car sharing Two-wheeler Subscription I have not used still a niche in the US, ride-hailing
sharing model any of the was used by 45% of respondents
above
48% of Europeans have not yet used
new mobility services (by far the
lowest adoption rate)
Global China Europe USA
Source: Arthur D. Little analysis
Note: Global and European values weighted by population of markets included
4
8China again looks different, as here car owners are much more At the moment, technical and infrastructure barriers remain
willing to embrace a wider range of mobility services than a real impediment to the profitable implementation of these
elsewhere. kinds of services, and that is likely to remain the case for the
immediate future. Overcoming these challenges will be the
Of course, the most significant impact on the take-up of catalyst for much wider and more rapid adoption.
any kind of mobility service is likely to be lack of availability,
something that 45% in our survey saw as an issue, as was the
potential cost of using them (42%).
Figure 5: Mobility services issues
New mobility services
Different motivations explain differences in adoption rate of new mobility services rates – Chinese consumers are looking for high
flexibility, Europeans desire a low-cost solution
What motivates your decision to use new mobility services?
Multiple choice – only urban respondents
58% In China, flexibility is a major driver for
those using new mobility services
47%
Respondents from Europe clearly
41% 41% expect a low-cost solution
36% 36% 28%
33% 34% 33%
31% 31% 30% 28% 31% Environmental reasons are more
28% 27%
24% important in China – the second most
22% important reason people use new
19% 20% 19% 13% 17%
17% 16% mobility services
14% 14%
10% 10% 11%
6% Only a few say digital services
integration and geographical flexibility
would influence them to use new
Flexibility to Environmental Cost reasons Possibility to Because of Seamless Geographical I don’t have mobility services
adjust reasons select vehicle exclusive integration flexibility a car/I want
vehicle type for special access to of digital to avoid
to mobility occasions parking services having a car
need (weekend
travel etc.)
Global China Europe USA
Source: Arthur D. Little analysis
Note: Global and European values weighted by population of markets included
5
93. Autonomous cars - a step too far?
Of course, mobility services such as robo-taxis depend on the However, while the sparkle may have gone out of some major
design and application of innovative technologies that underpin markets, the picture is much more positive in China, where
the development of autonomous vehicles, about which there acceptance of autonomous driving technology has actually
was such great excitement not so long ago. increased, with 71% of customers saying they are positive
about it.
Now, however, they seem to have lost a little their fizz, with
OEMs failing to convince the marketplace that they offer an China aside, when only between 15% and 37% of licensed car
acceptable mobility solution. In Europe 44-54% of people say drivers are in favor of fully autonomous driving technologies, it
they would not use fully autonomous vehicles, while in the US is obvious that manufacturers have some way to go to win the
the figure is 49%. market round. Even when it comes to semi-autonomous driving
(SAE level 4), over 50% of respondents in our survey were not
convinced that this is the technology for them.
Figure 6: Autonomous vehicles acceptance
Autonomous driving
While Western countries are still wary about usage of autonomous cars, China stands out with over 70% customer acceptance
Do you, or would you, use cars that are fully autonomous vs. semi-autonomous?*
Single choice, in % of respondents, all respondents
Western countries are still highly
Global skeptical about the usage of both
fully and semi-autonomous cars
(both showing low acceptance rates
14 16 of 26-34%)
China is taking the lead with ~70%
11 12
respondent acceptance (clear
Favorable 57 55 8
8 12 outlier)
attitude 35 11
33 26
20 15 18 Attitude towards AV is not
10 9 dependent on the degree of
17 16 3 3 20 20 19 automation: only minimally more
Unfavorable 25
15 favorable attitude towards semi-
attitude 17
19 25 autonomous vehicles
24 29
Very likely Rather likely Rather unlikely Very unlikely
Source: Arthur D. Little analysis
Note: Global and EU average weighted by car sales
* Fully autonomous: car can drive on its own, driver has option to intervene; semi autonomous: e.g., autonomous driving on highways
6
11Figure 7: Autonomous vehicles safety
Autonomous driving
Respondents across all regions are currently most concerned about autonomous vehicle safety
What are your concerns regarding autonomous driving?
Multiple choice, hypothetical in %
Respondents across all regions are
Global most concerned about safety risks
attached to AD (>50%) – trend
could be related to publicity about
Data security/privacy recent accidents
30 36 27 26
(e.g., vehicle sharing personal information or being hacked)
Safety risk due to human error Price is not a significant factor in
51 53 50 48
(e.g., drivers, pedestrians become less cautious due to feeling safer) China (9% only), whereas it is
Safety risk due to machine error especially important in Europe and
61 62 59 59 US
(e.g., technical inability to avoid accidents in certain scenarios)
Liability 38 42 36 34
(question of responsibility in case of accidents) Interestingly, Chinese respondents
are most concerned about security
Insufficient technological readiness level 35 37 33 34 of their private and personal data
Prestige 14 19 11 11 In general, very homogenous
(no interest in autonomous driving because I always want to drive myself)
results across all regions
Price 19 9 22 26
(unwillingness to pay for autonomous driving technology price premium)
Other
1 0 1 1
Source: Arthur D. Little analysis
Note: Global and European values weighted by car sales of markets included
A major reason for this reluctance seems to come down to But despite such widespread concerns, paradoxically, 77% of
fears over safety, something 51% of respondents were worried respondents globally said that if autonomous cars were available
about. Perhaps this is due to a series of well-publicized accidents they would use them. Is this another indication that our thinking
around the world involving autonomous vehicles since our last about the car is beginning to change and that while the car is
survey that have done little to promote their cause. still important to us, actually physically driving it will become less
so? 7
But safety is not the only issue. Our respondents were also
worried about their personal data and how well OEMs and
mobility service providers would protect it. This is one topic on
which China agrees with the ‘rest of the world’, with a slightly
greater percentage (31%) citing it as a concern than car owners
elsewhere.
124. Time to switch on the ‘electric
customer’?
While autonomous vehicles may currently be a step too far The hybrid powertrain boom was something we predicted back
for many car owners, that does not mean they won’t embrace in 2018 and is confirmed by this latest survey, with 29% of
other technologies in their cars. So, though over half (53%) of respondents now anticipating that their next vehicle will have a
our respondents remain fans of the internal combustion engine hybrid powertrain. Another 12% said they would consider buying
(ICE), the fast-growing demand for alternative powertrains a BEV next time around.
suggests that rapid change is in the air, with plug-in hybrids and
all-electric vehicles very much on a steep upward trajectory. The ICE may soon be about to lose its crown, but market
growth is being hampered by the limited range of models
currently available, something that has undoubtedly impacted on
the rate of adoption.
Figure 8: Alternative drivetrains split
Alternative drivetrains
Although traditional combustion engines will remain important, plug-in hybrids and all-electric alternatives are on a growth trajectory
that goes far beyond first movers and early adopters
Replacement trend, based on respondents’ likely drivetrain selection for next car
In %, global1
Global
Although traditional
drivetrains will remain
important for the
foreseeable future, more
59 96 52.3 ICE than 40% of ICE owners say
they are likely to choose an
alternative drivetrain when
ICE 84.4 replacing their car
Likelihood of switching to a
18 PHEV or BEV is even higher
76
19.8 HEV among hybrid drivers –
9 nearly 35% are considering
18
taking this step
10
67
4 10.5 PHEV Other drivetrains, such as
HEV 7.7 46 hydrogen and natural gas,
67
11.5 BEV remain peripheral in the
PHEV 2.1 15
BEV 2.1 view of customers
60
Other2 3.7 5.9 Other2
Source: Arthur D. Little analysis
Note: 1) Weighted according to car sales; 2) Other includes natural gas & hydrogen
8
14Figure 9: Alternative drivetrains loyalty
Alternative drivetrains
Due to price being the most discouraging factor, electrification is a high-stakes game for premium OEMs, whose customers are more
likely to choose another brand when switching to a BEV
Likelihood of changing to another brand if switching from conventional car to BEV
In %, by brand type (volume vs. premium)
A shift to electric drivetrains will cause
Volume1 brands
Global many consumers to re-evaluate their
Premium2 brands brand loyalty and consider other
brands
21 Customers of premium brands are
22 9 more likely to change brands than
16 28 volume brand customers
10 10 – One likely explanation is that most
9 electrical vehicles on the market
36 36
29 29 are high-end cars, which only
19 19 23
More likely 17 wealthier individuals would
4 3 4 2 purchase
7 8 3 7 7 4
Less likely 4 1 7
6 6 5 This trend is visible in all major
automotive markets, but is most
63
significant in the US
51 57
39 47 42 42
36
No difference
Source: Arthur D. Little analysis
Notes: Global and European values weighted by car sales of markets included; 1) Proxy brands: Citroen, Fiat, Ford, Hyundai, Kia, Nissan, Opel, Peugeot, Renault, SEAT, Skoda, Toyota &
Volkswagen; 2) Proxy brands: Audi, BMW, Jaguar, Land Rover, Mercedes-Benz & Volvo
With customer sentiment moving towards electric, the This means that alternative powertrains could be a hidden
unwillingness or inability of established car brands to fill this market disruptor.
gap could see many once-loyal customers migrating to new and
emergent manufacturers with a more exciting offering. As it is, One thing that would lead to further significant changes in the
51% of premium brand customers say that when they buy an marketplace would be any regulatory changes that encouraged 9
electric vehicle they expect to have to buy a different brand. greater adoption, as is being seen already in countries like the
UK.
Figure 10: Alternative drivetrains issues
Alternative drivetrains
Apart from cost, it is range anxiety, concerns about battery life and slow charging that are the greatest barriers to the widespread
adoption of all-electric vehicles
BEVs – discouraging factors
In %, by market (global ranking)
EU1 USA China
Relative importance (rank)
1 2 3 4 5 6 Outside top-6
1 Limited battery life 50.9% 45.1% 41.2%
2 Charging takes too long 43.7% 44.0% 38.5%
3 Limited operating range 49.8% 42.3% 43.4%
Lack of charging possibilities
4 when travelling
38.4% 27.1% 31.8%
Lack of charging possibilities
5 at home
34.3% 34.9% 25.0%
6 Price 62.5% 56.8% 14.6%
Source: Arthur D. Little analysis
Notes: 1) Weighted according to car sales; 2) Other includes natural gas & hydrogen
15Figure 11: Electric vehicle charging
Electric vehicles
Home charging is the most widespread option globally and in all major markets – high share of workplace charging in China and very low
share of public charging in the USA
Where do you usually charge your EV?
Numbers must add up to 100%
Private charging Public charging
In all major markets, home
charging accounts for more than
Global 56% 24% 3% 17% 50% of the charging volume. But
there was a very high share of
home charging across all regions
High share of home charging and
55% 23% 1% 20% less public charging in the US
65% 19% 4% 12%
50% 29% 2% 19%
At home At work others on the go
Source: Arthur D. Little analysis
Note: Global and European values weighted by car sales of markets included
However, while there may be a widespread and growing desire They certainly won’t want to find themselves in the middle of
to switch to electric vehicles, there remain practical issues for nowhere with no means to get power into their vehicle. An
many in doing so, given the lack of supporting infrastructure. unspoken worry among many and something that may be
holding back the market?
Though dense networks of petrol stations are in place to ensure
11
ICE vehicles can be driven long distances with little interruption, Not surprisingly perhaps, availability of public charging points is
the same cannot be said for electric vehicles that need charging seen as key and is something that 43% of respondents consider
much longer than a couple of minutes at a petrol pump. of greater importance than charging speed (20%), ease of use
(18%) or energy price (10%).
As our survey responses show, if car owners are to embrace
electric vehicles, they are looking for a vehicle that can do But despite its limitations, after choosing this new powertrain
more than short urban hops. They want one with the power to technology, EV drivers seem to be broadly happy with the
do much longer ‘road trips’. In China, for instance, drivers are existing infrastructure, at least for now, with fewer than 20%
looking for a range of at least 500km, while in Europe that’s 600- not fully satisfied with network density, tariff transparency, app
700km and in the US it’s 700km plus. functionality or cost of charging.
At the moment, most drivers of EVs are charging their vehicles
at work or close to where they live, with four out of five relying
primarily on their ‘at home’ charging solution.
16Figure 12: Alternative drivetrains positive factors
Alternative drivetrains
There are plenty of factors encouraging customers to go electric – mainly a combination of monetary and environmental factors, but
these vary between markets
BEVs – encouraging factors
In %, ranked by global relevance
Price subsidies 32 43 35
Environmental health
51 32 28
(no local pollutants)
Climate change
48 35 29
(no local CO2)
Total cost of
40 28 32
ownership
Trend and tech
34 11 10
frontrunner
Fear of regulation
27 19 15
against ICEs
Fear of loss of residual
24 12 11
value for ICEs
Source: Arthur D. Little analysis
Note: European values weighted by car sales
Further evidence that EVs are increasingly being seen as And once car owners become BEV owners, they are highly
everyday vehicles is that customers are now much less willing likely to stick with that same drivetrain when choosing their next
to pay a premium for BEVs. Only 26% say they would be willing vehicle. Yet more evidence that the future is electric.
to pay more for battery vehicles, so it looks like manufacturers
12
will have to sharpen their pricing.
175. Are we ready for the online car lot?
Whatever the vehicle type, buying a car remains a significant However, while physical dealerships are still the pre-eminent
and highly personal experience. That’s borne out by the fact that purchasing channel, the automotive sales process is going
over two-thirds (68%) of those in our survey said they were through a quiet revolution, with an increasing acceptance of
looking for a sales process that was very ‘customer-centric’. innovative retail formats. China is at the forefront of this, with
71% of customers saying they would be willing to buy their next
So, even with the restrictions caused by the pandemic, most car fully online, as against just 35% in Europe and 42% in the
people (55%) didn’t buy their car without having had at least one US.
personal or face-to-face consultation with a traditional dealer. In
fact, on average globally it took 2.4 such visits before a contract
was signed. And contrary to what might be expected, younger
customers visited car dealerships even more often than their
older counterparts.
Figure 13: New sales models – what matters?
New sales models
In car sales, transparency and customer-centricity rank as the top drivers of a positive customer experience during the car purchasing
journey, followed by personal consultation
What are the three most important drivers for a positive customer experience during the car purchase journey?
In % of respondents, weighted average of all markets
Global
Driver for a positive experience Importance
Transparency, customer-centricity and
quality of information
#1 67
Personal consultation by a product expert
or salesperson
#2 55
Achieving the best bargain possible #3 49
Feeling appreciation during ‘moments of
#4 44
truth’ (e.g., car delivery)
Convenient and quick purchase process #5 44
Experience brand marketing (e.g., motor-
sports, brand history)
#6 40
Source: Arthur D. Little analysis
Note: Values weighted according to car sales of markets included
13
19Figure 14: New sales models – dealership visits
New sales models
Customers visited ‘traditional’ car dealerships 2.4 times on average before signing their contract – most visits in UAE and Spain, least
visits in US, UK and Belgium
During your last car purchase, how often did you visit a ‘traditional’ car dealership before closing the deal?
Multiple choice, all respondents
Global
2.4 2.0 2.7 2.2 2.2 2.7 2.6 2.9 2.5 2.8 2.2 3.0 2.1 2.1
0 7% 13% 4% 11% 11% 3% 7% 11% 5% 7% 14% 6% 9% 9%
1 21% 29% 12% 23% 24% 12% 18% 14% 24% 17% 22% 11% 26% 33%
2 31% 28% 32% 31% 29% 36% 27% 22% 28% 26% 25% 27% 34% 30%
3 23% 17% 31% 20% 19% 30% 31% 23% 26% 23% 22% 27% 16% 14%
4 9% 6% 10% 8% 8% 11% 8% 11% 8% 12% 9% 12% 8% 6%
5 5% 4% 6% 3% 5% 4% 7% 11% 7% 9% 5% 8% 5% 4%
6 2% 1% 3% 3% 2% 3% 2% 3% 1% 4% 1% 3% 1% 2%
7 1% 1% 1% 0% 0% 1% 0% 1% 0% 1% 1% 2% 0% 1%
8 0% 0% 0% 1% 1% 0% 1% 1% 0% 1% 0% 1% 0% 0%
9 0% 0% 0% 0% 0% 0% 0% 0% 0% 0% 0% 1% 0% 1%
10 1% 1% 1% 1% 1% 1% 1% 4% 1% 1% 1% 2% 1% 1%
Source: Arthur D. Little analysis
Note: Global values weighted according to car sales
While there is overall reticence about committing to a wholly However, when it comes to arranging test drives and closing
digital car purchase, many are willing to go online for at least the deal itself, more than two-thirds prefer person-to-person
parts of the buying process, such as initial information gathering interaction. Perhaps because bargaining over a deal is something
and vehicle configuration. There is also a general appreciation of that’s important to nearly half (48%) of respondents.
the price transparency offered by digital channels and potentially
a cheaper deal — 65% of customers globally say they would There seems little difference in the sales process preferences
14
expect to receive a lower price online than from a traditional car between buyers of premium or volume brands, however, there
dealer. is an observable regional variation which OEMs and dealers may
need to reflect on.
Figure 15: New sales models – online purchase
New sales models
Most respondents are happy to complete some steps of the car purchase process online, but not arranging test drives or closing the deal
Along the car purchase journey, which steps do you prefer to complete online and which offline?
In %, by region and purchase journey
1 Finding the 2 Gathering 3 Arranging 4 Configuring 5 Finding best 6 Closing
right vehicle information test drives the vehicle offers or prices the deal
68% 66% 35% 50% 63% 25%
65% 67% 39% 54% 61% 33%
59% 56% 25% 39% 49% 20%
Online Offline
Source: Arthur D. Little analysis
Note: European values weighted according to car sales
206. The China phenomenon
In the introduction, we commented on what we saw as a Significant differences are also observable in how vehicles are
bi-polarity in the global automotive marketplace, with our marketed and sold. Buyers in China are much more positive
respondents’ answers showing a clear and obvious division about buying a car online, something which over 70% of
between attitudes in China and what many might regard as ‘the respondents would contemplate. And this enthusiasm is not
West’. confined to the young, with many over 45s also ready for online
car purchasing.
In fact, China can be seen as something of a ‘special case’ in
many ways which, given the size of its domestic market, has Again, the acceptance of autonomous driving is much higher in
significant implications for the global automotive industry. China than elsewhere. In fact, it is the only market where the
majority of customers are in favor of fully autonomous vehicles.
As yet, it is impossible to know whether China is simply an
anomaly, but certainly the enthusiastic willingness of customers Having been hit early by COVID-19, and reacted differently
there to embrace new solutions sets it apart. to it compared with other countries, China is now well into a
significant post-pandemic recovery. This leaves its automotive
Consequently, while new mobility services remain something of sector much better positioned than in the US or Europe and
a niche sector in Europe and the US, many Chinese respondents should see it enjoying a ‘V-shaped’ rebound.
told us they have used ride-hailing (70%) and ride-sharing (53%)
services. Further cementing its status as the world’s automotive
powerhouse is China’s growing interest in car ownership, with
There is also an evident difference when it comes to alternative a higher percentage than elsewhere thinking that owning a car
drivetrains. Only 41% of Chinese respondents, for instance, will be more important in 10 years
thought their next car would have an internal combustion engine
compared to 50% in the EU and 70% in the US.
Figure 16: Drivetrain replacement trend
Alternative drivetrains
Drivetrain replacement trend
Replacement trend in select markets, based on respondents’ likely drivetrain selection for next car
In %, China, EU and US
47 96 41.1
49.8
69.8 ICE !
ICE 83.9
88.4
83.6
21
80
22.1
12 16 20.8
16 73
13.9
12 13.8 HEV
4 12.6
45
HEV 7.2 8.0 71 5.4 PHEV
4.9 28 18.3 8.9
PHEV 1.3
1.7 1.6 3.3 65 12 5.5 BEV !
BEV 1.1 3.4 66
12
Other1 5.9 4.0 72 4.5 7.9 5.6 Other1
1.8
Source: Arthur D. Little analysis
Note: 1) Other includes natural gas & hydrogen
217. Drawing conclusions for the future of
automotive mobility
Given this rather confused, contradictory environment, we see Three: how to grow the mobility services segment. The
that the automotive industry faces four primary challenges. development of a true autonomous ecosystem will not happen
overnight, which means accepting that effective monetization is
One: how to become better at anticipating changes in demand quite literally some way down the road. But a larger portion of
and ownership profile, then adjust their vehicle and services stakes in that future value chain is distributed now and playing
offering, as well as capacity and footprint, accordingly. This will that card will be a trade-off between positioning and profit
entail optimizing product portfolios on a region-by-region basis, requirements. In the meantime, OEMs should ensure that any
given the degree of difference between them, and developing autonomous features on self-owned vehicles offer clear and
retention solutions for downgrading or exiting existing demonstrable value to the driver, so that when technology and
customers. regulation converge, they have prepared the market for any
‘hockey stick’ take off.
Two: how to better exploit electric’s potential. At the moment,
the limited range of models available means that OEMs aren’t Four: how to optimize the ‘new’ value chain. OEMs can do
capitalizing on the pent-up demand for hybrid models. But if this by creating high-performance ecosystem networks for
they could aggressively fill this ‘choice gap’, they would be able electric charging, through partnership building with ‘old-style’
to reap the rewards through upscaling and reinforcing brand physical dealerships. They can then leverage this relationship to
messages about their green credentials to customers who drive perceptions about new mobility options, and to provide
are looking for more eco-friendly vehicles. Until they do this, integrated solutions that give customers benefit all along the
manufacturers will be reliant on making the most of ICE cost value chain.
structures so they can dominate in markets where electric
infrastructure is lagging. In future, market share and profitability will increasingly involve
a trade-off between smart current investment and a commercial
calculation about how markets and value chain might look in 10
years’ time. For those who play their cards right, there will be
a significant opportunity to capture a larger piece of the future
profit pool.
22Contacts If you would like more information or to arrange an informal discussion on the issues raised here and how they affect your business, please contact: Austria Japan Singapore Bela Virag Hiroto Suzuki Yuma Ito virag.bela@adlittle.com suzuki.hiroto@adlittle.com ito.yuma@adlittle.com Belgium Korea Spain Kurt Baes Kevin Lee Carlos Mira baes.kurt@adlittle.com lee.kevin@adlittle.com mira.carlos@adlittle.com China Latin America Sweden Ninghua Song Rodolfo Guzman Niklas Brundin song.ninghua@adlittle.com guzman.rodolfo@adlittle.com brundin.niklas@adlittle.com Czech Republic Middle East Switzerland Lukas Vylupek Thomas Kuruvilla Klaus Schmitz vylupek.lukas@adlittle.com kuruvilla.thomas@adlittle.com schmitz.klaus@adlittle.com France The Netherlands Turkey Richard Parkin Martijn Eikelenboom Jiri Steif parkin.richard@adlittle.com eikelenboom.martijn@adlittle.com steif.jiri@adlittle.com Germany Norway UK Klaus Schmitz Lars Thurmann-Moe Nick White schmitz.klaus@adlittle.com thurmann-moe.lars@adlittle.com white.nick@adlittle.com India Poland USA Barnik Maitra Piotr Baranowski Alan Martinovich maitra.barnik@adlittle.com baranowski.piotr@adlittle.com martinovich.alan@adlittle.com Italy Russian Federation Fabrizio Arena Alexey Pankov arena.fabrizio@adlittle.com pankov.alexey@adlittle.com
The Future of Automotive Mobility
Uncertain drivers take global automotive markets
to a crossroads
Global Automotive Mobility Study - 3rd Edition
Arthur D. Little
Arthur D. Little has been at the forefront of innovation since
1886. We are an acknowledged thought leader in linking
strategy, innovation and transformation in technology-intensive
and converging industries. We navigate our clients through
changing business ecosystems to uncover new growth
opportunities. We enable our clients to build innovation
capabilities and transform their organizations.
Our consultants have strong practical industry experience
combined with excellent knowledge of key trends and
dynamics. ADL is present in the most important business
centers around the world. We are proud to serve most of the
Fortune 1000 companies, in addition to other leading firms and
public sector organizations.
For further information please visit www.adlittle.com or
www.adl.com.
Copyright © Arthur D. Little Luxembourg S.A. 2021.
All rights reserved.
www.adl.com/TheFutureOfAutomotiveMobilityYou can also read
