The future of the TV and video landscape by 2030 - Deloitte

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The future of the TV and video landscape by 2030 - Deloitte
The future of the TV and
video landscape by 2030    1
The future of the TV and video landscape by 2030 - Deloitte
The future of the TV and video landscape by 2030

      More info and the video:
www.deloitte.com/de/future-tv-video

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The future of the TV and video landscape by 2030 - Deloitte
The future of the TV and video landscape by 2030

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The future of the TV and video landscape by 2030 - Deloitte
The future of the TV and video landscape by 2030

Introduction:
a market on the move
“On-demand-services will disrupt the TV and video industry,” “New market
players such as Netflix or Amazon will soon replace traditional
broadcasters,” “Consumers’ demand for TV and video consumption is
fundamentally changing.” Established players are increasingly confronted
with this kind of alarming news about their positioning within the future
TV and video landscape.

But will these dramatic predictions really                 The Deloitte Digital Media Trends Survey                This rapidly changing market landscape
come true? TV and video are indeed                         2018 states that almost 48% of all United               makes future predictions difficult, if not
facing much uncertainty, and the extent                    States consumers stream television content              impossible. We therefore adopted a more
of change in the sector is hard to foresee.                every day or week.1 Likewise in the United              holistic approach—and we now invite you to
Streaming services no longer serve as just a               Kingdom, streaming video services have                  travel with us to the year 2030 to take a peek
platform for movies and TV shows—they are                  gained in importance; already, 41% of all               at four scenarios envisioning the future of TV
also investing in producing and licensing                  consumers purchased such a service in the               and video. Our scenario approach does not
their own content. This places them in                     United Kingdom.2 Even in the more                       aim to predict the most likely outcome but
direct competition with the traditional TV                 conservative German TV market, 44% of the               rather illustrates what could plausibly
and video industry. At the same time, TV                   population make use of subscription-based               happen in the world of TV and video. It also
channels and media organizations are                       video-on-demand (SVoD) at least once a                  suggests how today’s market players might
starting their own on-demand offerings.                    week.3 With the success of video-on-demand              adapt to deal with the many changes and
Also, large content producers are setting up               (VoD), consumers increasingly expect                    uncertainties there will be along the way.
their own streaming services.                              relevant content accessible at any time, in
From another perspective, on-demand-                       any place, and in the format that best fits
services have quickly changed consumers’                   their needs.
demand for TV and video consumption.

Fig. 1 – Average weekly video content consumption (in hours)

Among Total Consumers

        27
                          23                22                22
                                                                                20
                                                                                        17        16                        17
                                  15                                                                                15

                 8                                  10
                                                                       7                                   8
                                                                                                                                                    Live broadcast TV
                                                                                                                                                    Streaming video

           Japan            United           Germany            France             Brazil          United             China
                            States                                                                Kingdom

1
    Digital Media Trends Survey 2018 (United States) ; 2 Deloitte’s Digital Democracy Survey 2018 (global); 3 Deloitte Media Consumer Survey 2018 (Germany)           04
The future of the TV and video landscape by 2030 - Deloitte
The future of the TV and video landscape by 2030

Scenario thinking
The highly dynamic TV and video market           It is thus necessary to generate a set of
is characterized by emerging new market          scenarios, each of them describing a specific,
offerings, disruptive digital players, and       plausible world of the future which
rapidly changing consumer requirements.          substantially differs from the others.
In this uncertain environment, the strategic
steps of relevant stakeholders will be           The objective of scenario design thus is not
crucial factors influencing the future market    to identify future events, but rather to
landscape. What they decide today will have      emphasize relevant forces that move the
major effects on their future consumer           future in different directions. Scenarios are
relationships, the market structure, and         narratives of alternative future environments
technological standards.                         in which today’s decisions might play out:
                                                 they are neither predictions nor strategies.
Conventional strategic analysis seldom           By making the driving forces visible, strategic
manages well in such highly uncertain            planners can consider them and adapt their
environments, whereas scenario design            strategy accordingly.
is one approach that can look beyond the
usual planning horizon of three to five
years. While predicting the future is clearly
impossible, scenario design isolates the risks
and opportunities of certain strategic issues.
It helps in developing robust strategies that
will work in different potential futures.

                                                                                                                                                 05
The future of the TV and video landscape by 2030 - Deloitte
The future of the TV and video landscape by 2030

Scenario design is an approach that
can look beyond the usual planning
horizon of three to five years. It
helps develop robust strategies
that will work in different potential
futures.

                                                                          06
The future of the TV and video landscape by 2030

The underlying drivers
and how we derived them
The foundation of our scenarios is a
comprehensive set of underlying drivers
                                                 Traditional TV and nonlinear content
that potentially shape the future of the TV
and video industry. We therefore conducted
                                                 offerings will coexist. New and existing
expert interviews and made use of our
unique external environment analysis based
                                                 players will reposition along the value
on Natural Language Processing (NLP)
algorithms. The resulting drivers were then
                                                 chain in a partly consolidated market.
clustered into social, technological,
economic, environmental, and political
factors (STEEP) and rated with regard to their
degree of uncertainty and their impact on
the TV and video industry (see Figure 1).

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The future of the TV and video landscape by 2030

  Fig. 2 – Driver evaluation according to degree of impact and degree of uncertainty
       High

                                                                          Demand for        Market entry                    Distribution                                              Importance
                                                                                                              Content                           TV         Broad-       Average
                                      Level of exclusive content          on-demand          of tech /                       of TV and                                                 of sport/
                    Importance                                                                               aggregator                     advertising    caster         time
                                       in national broadcasting             content          internet                          video                                                     event
                       of live                                                                                                               spending       role       spent with
                                                                                              giants                          content                                                  licensing
                      content                 Relative importance                                                                                                       TV/ video
                        on TV          of linear broadcasting in contrast           Level of intellectual
                                       to non-linear/ on-demand services            property regulation        Influence                            Number of
                                                                                                                                 Cooperation                                 Ownership of
                                                                                                                   of           between players      content
                    Role of OTTs        Broadcaster                                                                                                                          sports rights
                                                                                                                 aging                              producers
                                      revenue streams         Introduction of   Content
                                                                                                  Net          viewership
                       Quality                               media regulation    rights
                                                                                                neutrality                                                            In-car
                      of digital            TV               for online/ mobile
                    infrastructure                             pure offerings                                                                                       relevancy
                                        advertising
                                                                                               Global
                                       measurement
                                                                                            media market
                    Regulation                            Advertising     Owner of the      consolidation         Convergence of
                     of media           Producer             focus        advertising
                     company
                    ownership
                                                                          relationship
                                                                                            Availability
                                                                                                                    advertising
                                                                                                                      markets         Zone of interest                                 National
                                                                                                                                                                                       economic
                                       Advertising         Level of
                                                                          Capability         of All-IP                                                                                  climate
                                          sales             market
                   Requirements                                             of data           media
                                        approach          regulation
                   for employees                                           analytics         networks                  Piracy                                        Sensitivity
                      in media                                                                                                                                        regarding
                                       Ability of AI to
                                                              Convenience of                                                                                         data privacy        Legal
                                         influence                                        Cybersecurity
                                                           technological progress                                                  Digital                                            restrictions
                    Digitalization       audience
                     of video/ TV                                                                                                capability of                                        in national
                                                                                                                                                                 Attractiveness
                     production        Polarization of        Advertising             Demand for                                   general                                            advertising
                                                                                                                                                                   of national
                                                               payment                                       Diversification        public
                      processes         advertising                                 in-home, large-                                                Mobile         video sector
                                                                                                                of players
                                          into sales                             screen entertainment                                             relevancy        for talents
                                                                                                             in the TV/ video                                                       Attractiveness
                                         and brand               Data                                             market                                                              of national
                   Innovative                                 monetization            Ability of AI                                      Demand for social            Demand         video sector
                    capability          Size of                                        tools to                                       content/ user-generated        for micro-
Degree of Impact

                                                                                                                                                                                      for talents
                     of video          supplier                  Vertical           predict content                                           content                payments
                     suppliers        ecosystems               integration            acceptance
    Medium

                    National           Video/ TV          Length and         Disruptive           Content
                                                                                                             Development         Education       Transmission/       Length of        Placement
                    content          consumption           format of          changes              focus
                                                                                                               of cord           on media/         Frequency         program/        of advertising
                     quotas            behavior              video           in release
                                                                                                                cutters          video use                            content
                                                          advertising         windows
                                                                                                                                 in schools

                     Degree of                                                 Device            Fiction
                       interde           Dependence             Stock          control                                                                 TV as            Global           New
                                                                                               focus of TV            Fan/            Focus of
                     pendence              of local            market                                                                                 enabler           media/        categories
                                                                                                                    follower           pay-TV
                      between            productions           pressure                                                                              for social        content         of video
                                                                                                                      focus
                    social media         on subsidies                                                                                               interaction       regulation       devices
                                                                               Pilot
                        and TV                                               selection         Relevance
                                                                                               of global
                                                                                                audience
                                                                                                                 Cloud            Multi-
                                                      User                                                         in            Channel                        Demand
                    Level of                                                                                                                                                          Ratio of
                                                   multitasking                                                operations        Networks                        for new
                     child                                                                                                                                                          pay-per-use
                                                                                             Focus                                                              forms of
                   protection                                                                                                                                                           vs.
                                                                        Corporate           of user                                                           storytelling
                                                                                                                                                                                    subscription
                                                                          social          engagement                                                                                 payments
                                     Price of
                                     techno-       Integrated           responsi-
                                     logical         online               bility
                                     devices        shopping
                                                                                                                Application of
                                                                                             Demand                                                                                 Degree of
                     Holo-                                                    Political                          blockchain-
                                                                                                for                                                                                personalized
                    graphic                                                  influence                              based
                                                                                            augmented/                                                                               content
                      TV           Tracking                                    on the                              content                                       Cross-
                                                            Existence                         virtual              trading
                                     with                                     national                                                 Market entry of          screen/
                                                              of the                          reality             platforms
                                   built-in-                                   video                                                 totally new players      transmedia
                                                            European                         offerings
                                   monitor                                     market
                                    sensors                   Union
       Low

                   Low                                                                               Medium                                                                                  High
                                                                                               Degree of Uncertainty

              Technology               Society             Environment              Politics            Economics

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The future of the TV and video landscape by 2030

In this way, we identified the two relevant        further approach. The 23 driving forces in                       raising the questions, "What will the
types of driving forces for our scenarios:         the ‘zone of interest’ have subsequently been                    player structure look like?” and “Who
                                                   tested by measuring their                                        will have access to customers?"
• Drivers with a high impact and with a clearly
                                                   interdependencies and relevance to each                          illustrated in Figure 3.
  predictable evolution (see the chapter on
                                                   other, and clustered according to their
  Expert Predictions)
                                                   degree of relatedness. At the end of this
• Highly uncertain drivers with a high impact      process, a combination of ‘critical
  on the TV and video industry.                    uncertainties’ was chosen, which created
                                                   the most challenging, divergent, and
                                                   relevant scenarios. This process led to a
Those drivers that are uncertain and highly        scenario matrix, serving as the basis for our
relevant are located in the ‘zone of interest’,    scenario analysis. The matrix is built on two
which is the fundamental section for our           axes addressing the critical uncertainties by

Fig. 3 – Scenario Overview for the future of TV and video in 2030

                                                                Platform owner

                                                                                                                Universal
                                      Lost in diversity
                                                                                                              supermarket

      Driven by              What will the player structure look like?                                                                         Driven by
national players                                                                                                                               gobal players
                                                                         Who will have access to consumers?

                                       Revenge of the                                                           Content
                                        broadcasters                                                           endgame

                                                                Content owner

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The future of the TV and video landscape by 2030

The axis “What will the player structure         The second axis or critical uncertainty
look like?” re lects the changing provider       that will determine the future of video is
landscape in the TV and video industry. This     “Who will have access to customers?”
dimension illustrates potential tendencies       This raises the question of whether
toward internationalization with global          broadcasters, digital platform companies, or
media players perhaps pushing national           content producers will be able to leverage a
broadcasters and content producers to the        direct consumer relationship—with massive
fringes. It also considers the fact that large   impact on monetization options, either
digital platform companies (DPCs) such as        via innovative advertising or paid content
Amazon, Apple, Facebook, Google, or Netflix      models.
increasingly enter additional stages of the
TV and video value chain by, for example,
producing their own content.

                                  We see digital platform companies as the
                                  major disruptors in the future TV and video
                                  market. By contrast, broadcasters and
                                  content producers face the greatest pressure
                                  for change.

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The future of the TV and video landscape by 2030

Expert predictions:
what we are certain about
As mentioned above, our scientific scenario approach identified a group of
relevant influencing factors that our experts predict will have a distinct
evolution. These factors will also have a significant impact on the future of TV
and video as well as relevance for all four scenarios. The statements below
outline this impact:

Digitalization will change content            Traditional TV and non-linear content         Advertising becomes targeted.
production, distribution, and                 offerings will coexist.                       TV and video advertising will adapt to
recommendation functionalities.               Linear and on-demand content will             new formats and increasingly focus on
All-IP becomes the standard for TV and        be equally important and will coexist         personalized ads. Leveraging consumer
video distribution. Fiber infrastructure      peacefully. Video-on-demand will soon         data will enable stakeholders to hyper
and 5G networks will handle the massive       become mainstream in all population           target their ads and content, and thus
increase in digital traffic caused by an      groups; at the same time, linear TV remains   maximize customer experience and value.
increasingly flexible and mobile use of       significant. Especially live content such     However, the extent of targeted advertising
media offerings. Beyond that, they will       as sports and major events will preserve      still depends on regulation and consumers’
strongly drive the digitalization level of    the high importance of traditional, linear    willingness to share their data. Advertising
video production processes. Artificial        television.                                   marketing will be something between a
Intelligence (AI) and analytics become key                                                  fully automated process and individual
elements of smart content discovery with                                                    sales negotiations.
intelligent recommendation functionalities.

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The future of the TV and video landscape by 2030

There will be moderate market                   Advertising and direct revenues will           New and existing players will
regulation overall.                             remain most relevant.                          reposition along the value chain in a
Market regulation will be more moderate         Generating new revenue streams is rather       partly consolidated market.
compared to the highly regulated media          difficult for the protagonists in the TV and   The global media industry will be partly
industry today. The lower level of regulation   video market. Innovative offers such as        consolidated. Stakeholders will make use
for online and mobile offerings leads to        demand-based pricing for content will not      of strategic mergers, acquisitions, and
a reduction of the regulatory pressure          prevail to a major extent. In addition,        alliances to strengthen their content quality
for all market players, especially for the      consumer data will be only partly used in      and distribution capability. Moreover,
traditional media companies. In particular,     monetization. There are only a few new         numerous market players will shift
lower regulatory pressure will lead to a        data-driven revenue streams for                along the value chain by expanding their
higher level of freedom when it comes to        broadcasters, as consumers show only a         businesses. Broadcasters will not only focus
cooperation between market players and          moderate willingness to pay with their data.   on their core competencies but also occupy
concentration of media ownership. Net                                                          some other positions in the value chain.
neutrality will continue to exist.                                                             Over-the-top (OTT) services become more
                                                                                               important in the future TV and video
                                                                                               market, whereas tech players play a minor
                                                                                               role. Looking at content production, both
                                                                                               traditional studios and non-traditional
                                                                                               providers will be part of it.

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The future of the TV and video landscape by 2030

Journey into our
four scenarios
The following scenarios demonstrate how
different the future paths of the TV and video
market could be. Let us explore each one
individually to see how they differ and what risks
and opportunities might arise in the future.

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The future of the TV and video landscape by 2030

Scenario 1

Universal supermarket
In this scenario, a few global digital platform
companies have taken over the leading role in
aggregation and distribution from national broadcasters.
They control the TV and video market and have entered
all steps along the value chain, including creation,
aggregation, and distribution of content and the direct
customer relationship. Like large supermarkets, each of
the digital platform companies offers an extensive range
of global and national content, only differentiated by
some exclusive productions and sports rights.

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The future of the TV and video landscape by 2030

Broadcasting as we know it today has             Advertising, as well as consumer
disappeared. Since video content is              relationships, has also shifted to the digital
distributed in all-IP (Internet Protocol) and    platforms. Broadcasters are dependent on
mainly online over the Internet, broadcasters    the revenue shares from digital platform
have been through a painful process of           companies and cut off from direct paid
change. They have evolved into pure              content and advertising revenues.
creators of largely national or specialized
content without any stakes in distribution or    Advertising agencies and traders have
customer relationship. They are now a            disappeared, rendered irrelevant by digital
supplier of their own channels and streams       platforms’ direct models of ad trading.
to the digital platform companies’ universal     Beyond that, their technological prowess
supermarket. However, broadcasters remain        helped in implementing new, personalized,
a relevant part of the video landscape.          and interactive forms of advertising.
Consumer demand for relevant content such
as news or local(ized) formats has saved their   In this scenario, regulators did not take
existence.                                       significant steps to monitor and control the
                                                 digital platform companies’ market strength.
At the beginning of the market                   Though the market is consolidated,
transformation process, consumers were           access to local content is widely regarded as
overwhelmed by the quantity of content           guaranteed. From the regulator’s
available and the proliferation of content       perspective, the digital platforms are doing a
providers. That confusion quickly evolved        decent job in catering to different cultural
into frustration. Subsequently, global digital   tastes and providing quality local content.
platform companies exploited their
technological capabilities to develop smart
selection and recommendation, supported
by artificial intelligence.

In addition, they initiated the consolidation
of the vendor landscape. The financial
capabilities of the global digital platform
companies allowed them to acquire
exclusive sports rights and produce
global blockbuster content, displacing
comparatively smaller players such as
broadcasters and content creators from
important stages of the value chain.

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The future of the TV and video landscape by 2030

Scenario 2

Content endgame
In the ‘Content endgame’ scenario, large global
content owners are the winners of the market
transition. They have integrated vertically along the
entire value chain and started to withdraw and
withhold content from digital platform companies and
distribute via their own channels, bypassing the
platforms and establishing direct customer
relationships.

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The future of the TV and video landscape by 2030

Content has become the main                    Digital platform companies have retreated
differentiating factor in the video market,    to becoming pure distribution channels,
while technologies such as distribution,       focused purely on technical delivery. The
search, and recommendation are                 digital platform companies’ business model
considered a commodity.                        has changed fundamentally since
                                               consumers are no longer paying for a
Big content owners with strong program         specific platform, but directly for their
brands and global reach target a global        preferred content. Apart from advertising,
audience with costly blockbuster               freemium services have become a relevant
productions and benefit strongly from          source of revenue for digital platform
economies of scale. Smaller producers have     companies.
been pushed out of the market. The variety
of content has decreased, but the quality      As content really is king in this scenario,
of global productions has reached new          global content owners negotiate directly
dimensions.                                    with advertisers. New ad models on a
                                               global scale have proved to be beneficial for
Broadcasters have survived by shifting their   content owners and international consumer
focus solely to the creation of strong local   brands. Finally, advertising partnerships
formats. They have evolved into suppliers to   have been established in the market, with
the big global content owners and benefit      sponsoring and content marketing being the
from the protection of national regulators.    most important examples.

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The future of the TV and video landscape by 2030

Scenario 3

Revenge of the broadcasters
In this scenario, national broadcasters have successfully
accomplished their digital transformation and secured
a strong position in the TV and video ecosystem.
Broadcasters have evolved into digital platforms,
established direct customer relationships, and delivered
on-demand content. During the transformation process,
broadcasters developed excellent digital capabilities. They
have entered new services, such as targeted advertising
and recommendation functions, which had previously
been dominated by the digital platform companies.
Furthermore, the high relevance of content for a national
audience puts broadcasters in a superior market position,
supported by regulatory measures such as content quotas.
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The future of the TV and video landscape by 2030

National broadcasters and global digital         In this technologically advanced scenario,
platform companies coexist in the market.        broadcasters are gaining valuable customer
This guarantees a great richness of content.     insights that are highly relevant to
While national broadcasters focus on local       advertisers. The collected user data would
quality content, digital platform companies      be an effective enabler for fully personalized
supply global productions and blockbusters.      advertisement, but advertising is part of a
Viewers can chose whether they want to           strong regulatory framework with strict data
watch linear or non-linear content from          privacy rules. Advertising agencies have
global or national sources.                      remained in the market and are helping
                                                 broadcasters implement innovative ads
Apart from several content partnerships,         within the legal guidelines.
technological alliances have also shaped
the market. All-IP network operators helped      Broadcasters also benefit from strong
broadcasters during the transformation           media regulation at a national level as
process with their expertise in digital media    local content production enjoys firm
distribution and by leveraging customer          regulatory support. The strict national and
data. With their national footprints,            European regulatory regime is the answer
network operators and broadcasters are           to the threat of globally dominant digital
ideal partners serving the same regional         media companies. With corresponding
markets. The alliance resulted in an efficient   measurement systems, broadcast industry
distribution of content via high-performance     bodies have secured a strong national
platforms with smart access to customer          media industry.
data.

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The future of the TV and video landscape by 2030

Scenario 4

Lost in diversity
In our fourth and final scenario, the TV and video market
has evolved into a diverse ecosystem with no dominant
players. Instead, consumers are served by numerous
distribution platforms, a great richness of content, and
a steady turnover of players in the market. Demand
for national content remains strong, so partnerships
between global and local players are widespread. The clear
distinction between content production and distribution is
another key characteristic of this scenario.

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The future of the TV and video landscape by 2030

Everyone does everything in this scenario.       In this vivid and dynamic market, advertising
Global digital platform companies have           agencies continue to have high relevance.
established direct customer relationships.       They systematically allocate advertising
Telecommunications providers,                    budgets and provide guidance within
broadcasters, and content producers have         the complex TV and video ecosystem. As
also successfully created their own digital      digital platforms facilitate personalized
platforms. Digital platform companies            advertisement, agencies had to acquire
contribute global formats such as high-          comprehensive data analytics skills. In this
profile series. To provide relevant local        way, they became indispensable advisors for
content they also forge alliances with local     advertisers.
producers. Network operators act as
super-aggregators. They provide access to        The primary concern of regulators in this
content and structure the market from the        scenario is the preservation of local content
customer’s perspective by offering guidance      and media companies. With their regulatory
across platforms. Consumers are only             decisions, they have strongly protected
interested in content and therefore tend not     national broadcasters and put them in a
to be loyal to any one platform.                 position to compete against the digital and
                                                 financial muscle of the large global digital
National broadcasters capitalize on the          platform companies.
consumers’ huge appetite for local news,
sports, movies, and series. Broadcasters
who started their digital transformation at
an early stage are using their own platforms
for content distribution. Others have
established partnerships with platform
providers, with the general trend towards
co-productions between broadcasters and
global digital platform companies. All in all,
national broadcasters remain independent
and maintain their livelihood by various
revenue streams.

                                                                                                                                               21
The future of the TV and video landscape by 2030

Fig. 4 – We clustered the main trends and drivers and prioritized two main forces influencing the future…

                                                           Platform owner

                                                       1                                             2
                                                                                        Universal
                               Lost in diversity                                      supermarket

      Driven by                                                                                                                  Driven by
national players                                                                                                                 global players

                                                   3                                                     4
                                Revenge of the                                      Content endgame
                                 broadcasters

                                                           Content owner

   1                                                          3
The TV and video market has evolved into a                 National broadcasters retained their place
diverse ecosystem with no dominant players                 by successfully accomplishing their digital
and a steady turnover of market participants.              transformation.

   2                                                          4
National broadcasting has been replaced by a               Global content owners can leverage a direct
few global digital platform companies.                     consumer relationship, which places them in
                                                           the driver seat.

                                                                                                                                              22
The future of the TV and video landscape by 2030

Taking a closer look
Looking at the final set of scenarios, we see DPCs being the major disruptors
in the future TV and video market. By contrast, broadcasters and content
producers face the greatest pressure for change. We will therefore take a
closer look at the strategic options for those two stakeholder groups.

Even though our four scenarios are highly        processes, and mastering them is a
divergent, a few overarching implications        prerequisite to being well-positioned in an
are highly relevant for all of them. Firstly,    increasingly digital video market landscape.
broadcasters and content producers can           As a result, traditional players must attract
no longer rely on their current market           digital talent as well as creative minds; in
positions. To safeguard their business           addition to technology, attractive and
models and future revenue streams,               creative content certainly remains king.
they need to be open to cooperation and
alliances, even with their direct competitors.   Next to these overall implications, we have
Joint production, distribution or even           different distinguishing factors in each of the
platforms are appropriate measures for           four scenarios, which affect the actual
countering the threat posed by the DPCs.         options for broadcasters and content
In parallel, regulators need to become           producers. Depending on the respective
less restrictive when it comes to alliances      scenario, stakeholders must draw
between equally positioned players within        appropriate fundamental conclusions.
the TV and video value chain. Broadcasters       However, the risk potential for each market
and content producers must work towards          player must be analyzed separately in order
convincing regulators to permit such             to develop individual strategic options.
cooperative models.

Beyond that, established broadcasters and
content producers must continuously invest
in their technological skills. Technology has
become a core element of their business

                                                                                                                                                 23
The future of the TV and video landscape by 2030

     Universal supermarkets
     In the Universal supermarket scenario, broadcasters and content producers
     need to focus on the implementation and positioning of strong content
     brands. This branded content must be used to improve bargaining positions
     when negotiating partnerships with content distributors. Also, content brands
     should seek more international licensing and leverage. To secure additional
     revenue streams, broadcasters and content producers must extend their
     business models beyond the TV and video market into other fields, such
     as merchandising.

                                               Content endgame
                                               Larger content producers need to invest more strongly in international
                                               content production--directly or via subsidiaries--to keep pace with their big
                                               global counterparts. Besides this focus on content, larger producers must
                                               strengthen the fields of customer relationships and advertising-marketing in
                                               the Content Endgame scenario.

                                               Smaller broadcasters and content producers need to position themselves as
                                               inimitable national partners for global players through unique, local, and
                                               strongly branded content. Furthermore, they must explore alternative
                                               distribution channels through strategic alliances with DPCs or IP network
                                               operators.

Revenge of the broadcasters
In this scenario, broadcasters must keep an eye on the general conditions
of the video market. They need to be aware of their political role and must
exert influence to prevent adjustments in the the regulatory framework
towards a less strict regime.

                                                    Lost in diversity
                                                    In the Lost in Diversity scenario, broadcasters and content producers
                                                    must clearly place the emphasis on their own strengths. In a world in
                                                    which everyone does everything, only a strong, focused strategy and
                                                    appropriate investments will secure the future market existence of
                                                    broadcasters and content producers.

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The future of the TV and video landscape by 2030

Methodology
The methodology of this study is based              Fig. 5 – Center for the Long View Scenario methodology
on the proven scenario approach first

                                                                       7
employed by Shell, and then perfected by
Monitor Deloitte. A seven-step scenario                                    Monitoring                                      1   Focal Question
development approach (see image)
applies the guiding scientific principles of
objectivity, reliability, and validity. The study
is the outcome of a series of interviews,
questionnaires, and workshops involving
TMT experts from the Deloitte EMEA
network and industry professionals as well          6   Implications
                                                                                                 Seven step                                2    Driving
                                                        & Options                                                                               Forces
as experienced scenario practitioners from                                                        scenario
Deloitte’s Center for the Long View (CLV).                                                      development
                                                                                                  approach

Scenario design starts by identifying the
focal question of the underlying issue.

                                                                                                                                      3
Since we could tell an infinite number of
different stories about the future of the TV                5   Scenario                                                                  Critical
                                                                                                                                          Uncertainties
and video industry, we first had to agree on                    Narratives

the issue or strategic challenge we wanted
to address. This enables us to support
our TMT clients’ decision-making in an
appropriate way. Scenarios are tools for                                                   4   Scenario Frameworks
shedding light on the strategic challenge,
while the focal question sets the scope
of the scenarios. In the present case, we
focused on the question, “What will the TV
and video landscape look like by 2030?”             approaches, which often have built-in             as the building blocks for creating our
                                                    tendencies based on the character, mood,          scenario sets.
Scenarios are a way of understanding the            or preferences of the scenarists.
dynamics that shape the future. Therefore,                                                            The scenario framework was developed in
in a second step, we pinpointed the forces          As a part of the workshop series, in              the next step by focusing the entire list of
that drive the focal question. Driving forces       a third step we identified the critical           related uncertainties into two orthogonal
are fundamental sources of future change.           uncertainties for the focal question. Not all     axes. We then defined a matrix consisting
They shape the course of events and                 driving forces are uncertain, some may be         of crossing and independent axes that
history and dramatically enhance our ability        pre-determined. These are the trends              allowed us to define four very different,
to imagine future scenarios. These drivers          already in the pipeline, unlikely to vary         but plausible, quadrants of uncertainty. In
can be grouped into five categories, known          significantly in any of the scenarios. Critical   the underlying study, we used “What will
as STEEP forces. This stands for Social,            uncertainties are driving forces with the         the player structure look like?” and “Who
Technological, Economic, Environmental,             potential to tip the future in one direction or   will have access to consumers?” as critical
and Political forces, and more than one can         another. They have two fundamental                uncertainties.
apply to any given issue. In order to derive        characteristics: they have an unusually high
our driver list, we also conducted expert           impact and are uncommonly uncertain or
workshops using Deep View, an AI-based              volatile. Initially, all uncertainties appear
trend-sensing and analysis machine. Deep            unique, but by stepping back, we can
View helps to avoid the bias of traditional         reduce uncertainties to clusters that serve

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Contacts
                                                                                          The future of the TV and video landscape by 2030

Alexander Mogg                              Florian Klein
Partner | Industry Lead TMT Monitor         Director | Head of Center for the Long View
Deloitte Germany                            Monitor Deloitte
Tel: +49 (0)89 2903 7939                    Tel: +49 (0)69 9713 7386
amogg@deloitte.de                           fklein@deloitte.de

Authors

Klaus Boehm                                 Ralf Esser
Director | Media and Entertainment Lead     Senior Manager | Head of TMT Insights
Deloitte Germany                            Deloitte Germany
Tel: +49 (0)211 8772 3545                   Tel: +49 (0)211 8772 4132
kboehm@deloitte.de                          resser@deloitte.de

Paul Lee                                    Jasmin Raab
Partner | Head of TMT Research              Senior Consultant | Scenario Practitioner
Deloitte                                    Center for the Long View
Tel: +44 (0)20 7303 0197                    Monitor Deloitte
paullee@deloitte.co.uk                      Tel: +49 (0)211 8772 4969
                                            jraab@deloitte.de

With the contribution of:
Mark Casey, Partner and Global Telecoms, Media & Entertainment Lead, Deloitte
Patrick Steemers, Partner and Telecom, Media & Technology Lead, Deloitte Netherlands
Jean-Charles Ferreri, Partner, Monitor Deloitte France

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The future of the TV and video landscape by 2030

      More info and the video:
www.deloitte.com/de/future-tv-video

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