The future of travel Future confident - Deloitte
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The future of travel
Future confident
Madrid, May 2021
Evolution of the tourism industry
The evolution of the travel industry has been closely linked to the growth of the middle
class and the flight supply available at origin
Evolution of air traffic vs Size of the world middle class
0.5 0.7 0.7 1.0 1.3
flight/per. flight/per. flight/per. flight/per. flight/per.
Travel
Dynamic value 5,000 democratization
chain
4,500
4,000 Recession
Recession
Recession
Recession
COVID-19
3,500
3,000
2,500
2,000
1,500 Alteration of
Supply increase priorities by
1,000 COVID-19?
500
1970 1975 1980 1985 1990 1995 2000 2005 2010 2015 2020
# Passengers by plane
Middle class population
Source: Monitor Deloitte, International Civil Aviation Organization, Gapminder
© 2021 Deloitte Consulting, S.L.U. The future of tourism 2
Crisis impact
The COVID-19 crisis is accelerating the transformation of the tourism industry by altering
the value chain and the relationship with the traveler, with technology as a facilitator
Travelers Suppliers Intermediaries Public administration
Domestic Capital increases Brand recognition Participation in private
International Cost reduction Domestic travel offer companies
Conjunctural
Last minute Flexible rates and free Corporate trips and Mobility and occupancy
Long stay cancellations groups restrictions
Price sensitivity Solvency and long-term Virtual experiences Sector protection
investments measures
Talent quality
Progressive Industrialization of the Market consolidation Regulation in destinations
Structural / Accelerated
empowerment service Traditional offline agency and activities
Flexibility in reservations Focus on minimizing model Sector empowerment
Digitization and acquisition costs Dynamic and flexible
Personalization Flexible use of assets model
Business trip Templates and fixed costs Mass tourism
Digitization and content Adventure and
generation sustainable nature
© 2021 Deloitte Consulting, S.L.U. The future of tourism 3
Forces of change
The consolidation of technology as a travel facilitator is transforming the sector's value
chain, fostering the emergence of new business models and changes in consumer habits
New Mobility
technological transfor-
services mation
Consolida-
tion
© 2021 Deloitte Consulting, S.L.U. The future of tourism 4
Uncertainties
The growth of the middle class and virtual experiences are the two uncertainties that can
completely redesign the future tourism landscape
Key uncertainties Other uncertainties
Stability (health, environmental, social and
technological)
Middle class growth
Penetration of tech giants in the
industry
Affordable replacement of physical
experience with virtual
Protectionism and public regulation
Incertidumbre e impacto en la oferta y demanda futura
© 2021 Deloitte Consulting, S.L.U. The future of tourism 5
Uncertainties - Growth of the middle class
The growth of the middle class in emerging economies will significantly increase the global
traveler base, despite the possible delay that the COVID-19 crisis may cause in growth
Distribution of the population according to wealth
Low class Middle and upper class
Increase in the
middle and upper
class population
vs 2020
500 2020 -
450 2030 Pre-COVID + 400 M
2030 2 lost years + 250 M
400
2030 2 years of retrogression - 70 M
350
World population
300
250
200
150
100
50
$ / Day
© 2021 Deloitte Consulting, S.L.U. The future of tourism 6
Uncertainties - Affordable substitution of physical for virtual experience
Virtual experiences increasingly offer a real alternative to physical experiences that can
change the dynamics in the share of experience spending
Live concerts Excursions Guided visits Meetings
Events Immersive experiences Therapy Training
© 2021 Deloitte Consulting, S.L.U. The future of tourism 7
The future of the tourism sector
The evolution of the middle class and virtual experiences will draw the panorama of the
tourism industry, resulting in 4 possible scenarios with different needs and opportunities
High growth of emerging economies
(Exponential demand)
Physical experience is affordably replaced by virtual experience
Physical experience is not substituted for virtual experience
The New Happy 20s Reinvention of physical tourism
Increase in physical demand and supply Increase in demand and mixed supply (virtual and physical)
(Extended suply)
(Limited suply)
Traditional Intermediaries not present Technological Intermediaries and non-
players in emerging economies platforms differential travel models
Physical supply and slow demand growth Affordable virtual supply and slow demand growth
Efficient and digitized Undifferentiated Technological Traditional service
providers mass supply platforms providers
Sector slowdown Virtual tourism
Slow growth of emerging economies
(Pre-crisis demand)
© 2021 Deloitte Consulting, S.L.U. The future of tourism 8
Future confident To navigate the future with confidence, organizations need to make the right choices: clear, timely and inspirational choices that deliver growth in a dynamic, disrupted world. Monitor Deloitte’s strategy practitioners combine deep industry insights with cutting edge methods to help leaders resolve their most critical decisions, drive value, and achieve transformational success El presente informe/documento es estrictamente confidencial y de uso interno de la Sociedad y, no podrá ser entregado, ni permitir el acceso a terceros o hacer referencia al mismo en comunicaciones sin nuestro consentimiento previo por escrito. Este documento ha sido preparado con fines exclusivamente promocionales, en base a cierta información pública y de la Entidad, y refleja una serie de observaciones de carácter general. Deloitte no acepta ningún tipo de responsabilidad frente a la Sociedad ni frente a ningún tercero como consecuencia de las decisiones o acciones que pueden ser adoptadas por la Sociedad basándose en el contenido de este documento. Deloitte no controla el funcionamiento, fiabilidad, disponibilidad o seguridad del correo electrónico y por lo tanto no será responsable de ninguna pérdida, daño o perjuicio que resulten de la pérdida, retraso, interceptación por parte de terceros, corrupción, o alteración del contenido de este informe/documento. En caso de contradicción o conflicto entre la versión electrónica y el documento físico, prevalecerá el documento físico. Deloitte se refiere a Deloitte Touche Tohmatsu Limited, (private company limited by guarantee, de acuerdo con la legislación del Reino Unido) y a su red de firmas miembro, cada una de las cuales es una entidad independiente. En www.deloitte.com/about se ofrece una descripción detallada de la estructura legal de Deloitte Touche Tohmatsu Limited y sus firmas miembro. © 2021 Deloitte Consulting, S.L.U.
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