The Housing Market & the Strategic Housing Market Needs Assessment (SHMNA)

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Cornwall Local Plan: Housing Evidence Base

The Housing Market & the Strategic Housing Market Needs
Assessment (SHMNA)
Housing Evidence Base Briefing Note 2:

National Policy Context
The NPPFi (paragraph 159) states that ‘local planning authorities should have a clear
understanding of housing needs in their area. They should prepare a Strategic
Housing Market Assessment to assess their full housing needs, working with
neighbouring authorities where housing market areas cross administrative boundaries.
The Strategic Housing Market Assessment should identify the scale and mix of housing
and the range of tenures that the local population is likely to need over the plan
period which:
• Meets household and population projections, taking account of migration and
   demographic change;
• Addresses the need for all types of housing, including affordable housing and the
   needs of different groups in the community (such as but not limited to, families
   with children, older people, people with disabilities, service families and people
   wishing to build their own homes), and
• Caters for housing demand and the scale of housing supply necessary to meet this
   demand’.

This ‘duty to co-operate’ is set out in legislation in the Localism Act 2011 section 110ii.

Recently released draft National Planning Practice Guidance on the ‘Assessment of
Housing and Economic Development Needs’iii supports local planning authorities in
objectively assessing and evidencing development needs for housing (both market
and affordable) and economic development (which includes main town centre uses).
The assessment of housing and economic development needs includes the Strategic
Housing Market Assessment requirement as set out in the National Planning Policy
Framework. Once formalised, this will replace the previous 2007 guidance on
‘Strategic Housing Market Assessment Practice Guidance’iv.

Definition
Access to a good quality home at an affordable price is a basic human need. Housing
covers all types of housing related development required to meet the needs of the
current and future population. Housing ranges from open market housing for those
who can afford to purchase one or more properties to affordable housing which can
either be rented or partly owned. It includes specialist housing such as sheltered
accommodation for elderly or vulnerable people with specific needs. Housing also
takes account of the needs of migrant workers and includes residential and transit
sites for gypsies, travellers and travelling show people.

A housing market area is a geographical area defined by household demand and
preferences for all types of housing, reflecting the key functional linkages between
places where people live and work. The extent of the housing market areas identified
will vary, and many will in practice cut across various local planning authority
administrative boundaries. Local planning authorities should work with all the other
constituent authorities under the duty to cooperate.

What is the Housing Market?
The Housing Market refers to the supply and demand for houses, usually in a specific
area or region and includes the following features

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•   Supply of housing – quantity, mix, types and tenures of housing stockBN13;
•   Demand for housingBN1 and competing demands for housing BN11;
•   House pricesBN14;
•   Rented sector, buy to let investment and demand from tenantsBN16;
•   Intervention in the housing market in terms of social housing etcBN10.

There are a number of factors which affect the housing market, including interest
rates, the state of the mortgage industry which will determine whether people are
eligible for mortgages or notBN14, levels of economic growthBN5, local incomesBN17,
unemployment rates, and populationBN3 and householdBN4 trends.

Household growth, employment status and the income of households form important
drivers in understanding the operation of the housing market. House price
transactions and rental activity represent a direct indicator of the health of the
market.

The operation of the active housing market is dependant upon households being able
to move both within and between tenures. It is widely accepted that the recent
national economic downturn, and constraints on mortgage finance (including increases
in required mortgage deposits), have significantly reduced the volume of household
movement in the housing market nationally. This in turn places increasing pressure on
both the private rented and social rented market.

The Current Market Context
The Housing Strategy for Englandv acknowledges that the current housing market is
not working and that the country is experiencing a situation where:
• Buyers can’t buy – the average age of an unassisted first time buyer continuing to
   rise and families struggling to ‘trade up’;
• Lenders are not lending enough – high deposit requirements exclude young people
   and families from home ownership;
• Builders are not building – not enough consumers ready to buy, not enough land
   for development in the planning system or access to finance;
• Investors are not investing – without the right framework or incentives in place;
• Affordable housing could do more if enough were built – in terms of delivering new
   homes and supporting the social mobility and aspirations of tenants and
   communities; and
• Tenants are struggling – as pressures increase in the private rented sector and
   rental prices escalate.

McDonaldvi in his presentation recognises that if demand for housing increases without
an increased supply we will be back to the ‘boom and bust’ experienced over the past
three decades.

The Government has a number of initiativesvii in place such as the ‘Help to Buy’
schemes to boost both the supply of new housing and how people can get help to
access the housing they requireBN14.

Work undertaken for the SHMNA for Cornwall recognises the challenges posed by
current market conditions. This work evidences a sustained need for affordableBN10
housing tenures over the plan period as the current market and finance context
presents a significant potential obstacle to delivering sufficient numbers of affordable
housing to address need.

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Over the plan period it is important that policy and strategy aid in delivering a housing
stock which matches the objectively assessed needs BN1 and requirements of the local
authority’s current and future residents and achieve a ‘balanced housing market’.

What is a Strategic Housing Market (Needs) Assessment?
The approach to developing an understanding of the demand for market and
affordable housing within a market area is through the preparation of a Strategic
Housing Market Assessment (SHMA). There was no up to date guidance available
which set out how a SHMA should be conducted when Cornwall Council undertook
their assessment with neighbouring authorities and the existing guidance prepared in
2007viii was used. A revised version of the guidance was made available during August
2013 following the Taylor review of planning guidance. This ‘Assessment of Housing
and Economic Development Needs’ix includes guidance as to the SHMA requirement as
set out in the National Planning Policy Framework.

The key output of a SHMA is to provide evidence of what level, type and tenure of
housing is likely to be needed in that housing market area. Local authorities need to
understand the evidence for the whole area, including neighbouring authorities, as
well as the different sub market that exist within their area. Paragraph 159 of the
NPPF sets out that local authorities should work with neighbouring authorities where
housing market areas cross administrative boundaries. This ‘duty to cooperate’ is both
a statutory test and a key issue when assessing the soundness of local plans

Cornwall’s Strategic Housing Market Needs Assessment
Cornwall Council with the neighbouring authorities of Plymouth City Council, West
Devon Borough Council, South Hams District Council and Dartmoor National Park
embarked on a joint SHMNA in 2013. The following conclusions from the SHMNAx for
Cornwall are vital in achieving the goal of meeting ‘objectively assessed need’:
• The modelling of future population projectionsBN3 indicated that there will be a
   sustained need for new housing to meet the needs of a growing population linked
   to historic and projected demographic trends as well as the future levels of jobsBN5
   forecast to be created in the authority.
• In total the SHMNA suggests that there will be a requirement for between 47,300
   and 71,980 dwellings over the next twenty years to meet the demands generated
   by new householdBN4 formation and the labour force demands of a growing local
   economyBN5.
• The analysis of the current need for affordable housingBN10 in Cornwall over the
   next five years indicates a high demand for this tenure. An annual need of 2,240
   affordable properties is calculated as being required to meet newly arising need
   over the next five years as well as the existing backlog. The level of overall need
   reflects the impact of rising house prices over the first half of the last decade and
   the continued pressures on wages (i.e. household income) as well as the
   availability / affordability of mortgage finance. It also reflects the fact that
   affordable housingxi makes up a relatively low proportion of the overall stock in the
   authority currently, approximately 12%, a proportion which is considerably below
   the national average of 17%.
• The changing age profile of the projected populationBN3 of Cornwall indicates that
   under all modelled scenarios there will be a substantial increase in older persons.
   Under all of the scenarios there is projected to be an increase in working age
   persons and children with the scale of increase considerably greater under the
   employment-led scenarios with this linked to the assumptions around the required
   in-migration of working age persons to match increases in job opportunities.
   Overall the number of older persons is projected to increase significantly. The

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    projections indicate that older persons will make up between approximately 15-
    16% of the total population by 2031 compared to just over 10% in 2011.
•   In addition to older person households the projections also indicate that in order to
    maintain a level of working age population to match employment opportunities
    there will be a sustained need for family housing within the authority.
•   Specifically in terms of affordable housingBN10 the analysis indicates that there will
    be a high demand for smaller properties, 1 – 2 bed, with need for this size of
    property making up 82% of total need. Importantly, however, the lower levels of
    turnover in larger properties also suggests that in order to address future need and
    the current backlog, new larger affordable properties will also be required to allow
    choice within the housing market.

Risk Assessment
Many aspects of delivering housing are out of the control of the local authority and
this has been demonstrated over the last few years as the impact of the recession has
been felt in terms of the limited ability of house builders to deliver new houses and
the ability of potential home owners to access housing.

Use in the Cornwall Local Plan
The SHMNA is a key document in determining the housing requirement for a planning
authority and the Cornwall SHMNA has been used to provide the housing target for
Cornwall for 2010-2030 i.e. 47,500 which is mainly based on the SHMNA demographic
projection of 47,300.

The SHMNA report was clear that the demographicBN2 BN3 scenario outputs should be
considered to represent a minimum for understanding the housing pressures likely to
result from the growth in households, considering the latest demographic evidence at
the time of the research. The report also concluded that it is considered sensible to
view the higher employment-led projectionsBN5 as an important benchmark for
understanding the potential further growth of Cornwall recognising this will be driven
by a continued in-migration of people from outside of the study area looking to take
up new employment opportunities. The consideration and treatment of factors such as
unemployment, economic activity rates and so on suggests that these will be upper
levels assuming the underpinning levels of job growth are not exceeded over the
projection period.

The SHMNA is also the key document in determining the need for affordable
housingBN10 in a planning authority area.

Examination Findings
The ‘duty to cooperate’ is both a statutory test and a key issue when assessing the
soundness of local plans. If an assessment of the housing needs of an area is
inadequately carried out, the Planning Inspectorate will find the plan ‘unsound’ and it
cannot be adopted. While the information may not be as easily available for the
housing market area, compared with that available on an individual authority basis,
there are considerable risks of working alone to assess the affordable and market
housing needs. Inspectors in a number of core strategy examinationsBN20 have
criticised authorities for not having or taking adequate account of accurate and up to
date information available for the whole market area.

Cornwall has worked with neighbouring authorities on a SHMNA to assess the
objectively assessed need for housing for each of the constituent authority areas.

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Accompanying Briefing Notes:
•       BN1 – Objectively Assessed Need;
•       BN3 – Population & Population Projections;
•       BN4 – Households and Household Projections;
•       BN5 – Jobs, Housing & Economic Growth;
•       BN10 – Affordable Housing;
•       Bn11 – Second & Holiday Homes;
•       BN13 – Housing Mix, Types & Tenures;
•       BN14 – House Prices & Affordability;
•       BN16 – Private Rented Sector;
•       BN17 – Incomes & Earnings;
•       BN20 – Local Plan Examination Findings

Further Information:
1. A Simple Guide to Strategic Planning and the ‘Duty to Cooperate’xii – provides more
   detail in relation to the ‘duty to cooperate’.
i
 DCLG (2012) National Planning Policy Framework -
https://www.gov.uk/government/publications/national-planning-policy-framework--2
ii
 Home Office (2011) Localism Act 2011 -
http://www.legislation.gov.uk/ukpga/2011/20/pdfs/ukpga_20110020_en.pdf
iii
  DCLG (2013) The Assessment of Housing and Economic Development Needs -
http://planningguidance.planningportal.gov.uk/blog/guidance/assessment-of-housing-and-
economic-development-needs/what-is-the-purpose-of-the-assessment-of-housing-and-
economic-development-needs-guidance/
iv
  DCLG (2007) Strategic Housing Market Assessments Practice Guidance -
https://www.gov.uk/government/publications/strategic-housing-market-assessments-practice-
guidance
v
 DCLG (2011) Laying the Foundations: a housing strategy for England -
https://www.gov.uk/government/publications/laying-the-foundations-a-housing-strategy-for-
england--2
vi
  Neil McDonald (2013) How do we get to 250,000 homes a year? –
http://www.cih.org/resources/PDF/Marketing%20PDFs/Presentations/housing2013/Neil%20Mc
Donald%20How%20do%20we%20get%20to%20250000%20homes.pdf
vii
       DCLG (2013) Help to Buy - https://www.gov.uk/affordable-home-ownership-schemes
viii
   DCLG (2007) Strategic Housing Market Assessments Practice Guidance -
https://www.gov.uk/government/publications/strategic-housing-market-assessments-practice-
guidance
ix
  DCLG (2013) Assessment of Housing and Economic Development Needs -
http://planningguidance.planningportal.gov.uk/blog/guidance/assessment-of-housing-and-
economic-development-needs/what-is-the-purpose-of-the-assessment-of-housing-and-
economic-development-needs-guidance/
x
 GVA/Edge Analytics (2013) Strategic Housing Market Needs Assessment Main Report:
Plymouth City Council, South Hams District Council, West Devon Borough Council, Cornwall
Council and Dartmoor National Park
xi
 Office for National Statistics (2012) 2011 Census – http://www.ons.gov.uk/ons/guide-
method/census/2011/index.html

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xii
  Planning Advisory Service (2012) A Simple Guide to Strategic planning and the ‘Duty to
Cooperate’ - http://www.pas.gov.uk/pas/core/page.do?pageId=2133454

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