The Path Forward Community Broadband Assessment for Middlesex County Virginia - January 2017

 
The Path Forward Community Broadband Assessment for Middlesex County Virginia - January 2017
The Path Forward

Community Broadband Assessment
              for
   Middlesex County Virginia
          January 2017
The Path Forward Community Broadband Assessment for Middlesex County Virginia - January 2017
Topics
            •   Community Profile
            •   Current Reported Coverage
            •   Broadband Demand
            •   Local Assets
            •   Review of local policies & fees
            •   Broadband Needs
            •   Next Steps

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The Path Forward Community Broadband Assessment for Middlesex County Virginia - January 2017
Before We Begin
 Positive impacts of broadband on household income:
• gaining 4 Mbps of broadband increases household income by $2,100 per year
• re-employment 25 percent faster than traditional searches
• higher employment rates in rural counties

Positive impacts of broadband on healthcare
• enables solutions that help manage chronic diseases, like diabetes and obesity.
• connecting health and broadband sectors is a path to a more connected, healthier locality.

 Reasons for positive impacts
• boosts personal productivity,
• enables more flexible work arrangements
• enables home-based businesses as a replacement, or complement to an ordinary job.
• enables people to be more informed,
• better educated and socially and culturally enriched – fueling a faster career path.
• improves access to health and care
                   Source: The Appalachian Regional Commission (ARC) Broadband Planning Primer Toolkit
                  https://www.arc.gov/images/programs/telecom/ARCBroadbandPlanningPrimerToolkit.pdf
                             Connect2HealthFCC: https://www.fcc.gov.edgekey.net/health/maps

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The Path Forward Community Broadband Assessment for Middlesex County Virginia - January 2017
Remember the
                          Broadband Economics?

    Profit/Sustainability = Revenue - CapEx + OpEx
How do we make the math work for sustainability & future upgrades?
How do we entice the private sector to invest?

                INCREASE REVENUES                            LOWER COSTS
    Adoption and Demand                       Local Assets/Infrastructure
                                                What you have that might be shared
    Population Density                        Policies & Fees
                                                Reduce or eliminate fees for partners
                                                Streamline permitting
    Community Anchor Institutions             Funding Options
      Residents, businesses, government         Public & Private Investments
    facilities, healthcare

                     *Red indicates variables local governments can affect

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The Path Forward Community Broadband Assessment for Middlesex County Virginia - January 2017
Broadband Perspective

   COMMUNITY PROFILE
   SOURCE: HTTPS://WWW.CENSUS.GOV/ACS/WWW/DATA/DATA-TABLES-AND-TOOLS/DATA-
   PROFILES/2014/

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The Path Forward Community Broadband Assessment for Middlesex County Virginia - January 2017
Middlesex Household Income
                                         Total Occupied Households: 4,432
                                         Median household income: $54,452

Less than   $10,000 to   $15,000 to   $25,000 to   $35,000 to   $50,000 to   $75,000 to   $100,000 to   $150,000 to   $200,000 or
 $10,000     $14,999      $24,999      $34,999      $49,999      $74,999      $99,999      $149,999      $199,999        more

                     Take Away: Up to 30% may have affordability challenges

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The Path Forward Community Broadband Assessment for Middlesex County Virginia - January 2017
Middlesex Age and Population
                                                          Total Population:10,817
                                                             Median Age: 51.5                         19 and
                                                                                                      under
                                                                                                       18%

                                                                                            65 and                              20 to 64
                                                                                             older                                55%
                                                                                             27%
Take away:
• Majority of population considered technology
   adopters.
• 27% may be slow to adopt.
• Largest population group; 65-74

Under 5   5 to 9 years   10 to 14   15 to 19   20 to 24   25 to 34   35 to 44   45 to 54   55 to 59   60 to 64   65 to 74   75 to 84   85 years and
 years                    years      years      years      years      years      years      years      years      years      years         over

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The Path Forward Community Broadband Assessment for Middlesex County Virginia - January 2017
Middlesex Populations with Special Needs
                                              With a
                                             disability
                                                16%
    Middlesex survey respondents
        reporting a disability
             Yes                                                   Without a
             7%                                                    disability
                                                                      84%

                       No
                      93%

      Take Away: 16% may be slow to adopt technology or need special equipment

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The Path Forward Community Broadband Assessment for Middlesex County Virginia - January 2017
Middlesex Educational Attainment Profile
                                 Graduate or              Less than 9th grade 9th to 12th grade, no
                              professional degree                 2%                 diploma
                                      10%                                               8%

                       Bachelor's degree
                             18%
                                                                                          High school graduate
                                                                                         (includes equivalency)
                                                                                                  30%
                Associate's degree
                       6%

                                           Some college, no degree
                                                    26%

                                          Take Away
   10% of the population may be slow to adopt and/or less likely to subscribe to new services.
From survey: 5% that report no Internet at home cite reason as digital literacy issues.

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The Path Forward Community Broadband Assessment for Middlesex County Virginia - January 2017
Middlesex Households with K-12 Children
                                                    Households with
                                                      one or more
                                                    people under 18
                                                         years

                                                            22%

   From Survey:
   Does your child have Internet                                            Households
   access outside of school                                                without school
                           Don't Know                                      aged children
                               3%                                               78%

                 Yes
                                    No
                 42%
                                   55%

Take Away: 22% of households need broadband at home to support K-12 education.
More than half of survey respondents report their school aged children have no Internet at
home.

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Middlesex Households with K-12 Children
           Connection Types
                          Don't know           Dial-up telephone line
                             2%                          1%
                                   Satellite
                                     10%
               Cellular                                                 Cable TV modem
                14%                                                           37%

             Fixed Wireless
                  17%
                                                       DSL
                                                       19%

 Take away: 25% of household with K12 students have inadequate connection types.

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Educational Related Online Activities
                                 (From Middlesex Survey)

   Parents that Access School Websites            Respondents that use the Internet for school
                                                  work or job training activities
                           No
                           4%

                                                                                   No
                                                            Yes                   42%
               Yes                                          58%
               96%

Take away:
58% of survey respondents report using the Internet for school or job training activities.
Most parents use the Internet to access their child’s school website

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Middlesex Housing
                                                Total housing units: 7,188
                                              Occupied housing units: 4,432
          Vacant or
          Seasonal
           housing
            units
                                                 Occupied
            38%
                                                  housing
                                                   units
                                                   62%
                                                                               Renter-
                                                                              occupied
                                                                                17%

                                                                                          Owner-
                                                                                         occupied
Take away: >1/3 of housing units are vacant or
                                                                                           83%
           represent seasonal/weekend homes

*a vacant unit may be one which is entirely occupied by persons who have
a usual residence elsewhere.
Source: https://www.census.gov/housing/hvs/definitions.pdf

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Middlesex Population Density
                            Population generally low population density across the
                            county, with concentrations of low-moderate density
                            in the northern half of the county.

                            Survey Response Locations: Home
                                                       Home Business
                                                       Business

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FCC Provider Reported Data

   REPORTED CURRENT COVERAGE

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Important note about FCC reported coverage
All facilities-based broadband providers* are required to file data with the FCC twice a year
(Form 477) on where they offer Internet access service at speeds exceeding 200 kbps in at least
one direction.

Fixed providers file lists of census blocks in which they can or do offer service to at least one
location, …
Mobile providers file maps of their coverage areas for each broadband technology (e.g., EV-DO,
HSPA, LTE).

                             Block-Level Deployment and Competition
A provider that reports deployment of a particular technology and bandwidth in a particular
census block may not necessarily offer that particular service everywhere in the census block.
Accordingly, a list of providers deployed in a census block does not necessarily reflect the
number of choices available to any particular household or business location in that block, and
the number of such providers in the census block does not purport to measure competition.

Source: Source: https://www.fcc.gov/general/broadband-deployment-data-fcc-form-477
*A Facilities-based Broadband Provider is an entity that provides broadband services over
facilities it owns, provisions and/or equips.
                       Take away – 2015 data Coverage maps are overstated !
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Middlesex DSL Coverage
                    Verizon

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Middlesex Cable Coverage
                    Metrocast

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Fiber Service
              Lightower

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Fixed Wireless
            Virginia Broadband, KQVA.Net

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FCC Coverage Statistics
                                               FCC
                                      Consumer Fixed BB Stats

                                      • >= 4 Mbps 96.9%*
                                      • = 10 Mbps 91.4%
                                      • >= 25 Mbps 88%
                                          Source: FCC 477 data
                                        *Percent of total households

                                      Recall: A provider that
                                      reports deployment of a
                                      particular technology
                                      and bandwidth in a
                                      particular census block
                                      may not necessarily
                                      offer that particular
                                      service everywhere in
                                      the census block.

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Public Safety
            FirstNet and No-LTE
                                       FirstNet 1x1 mile grids.

                                   Proposed terrestrial coverage

                                   Proposed non-terrestrial coverage

                                   No LTE Coverage
                     Optional      *VDEM coordinating FirstNet

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Connect America Phase II
                                           CAFII Eligible Blocks
                                                 (Preliminary)
                                        Potential Funding Available
                                          $108,174.93 annually,
                                            ~$650K over 6 years

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CAFII & Demand
  Primary CAFII
      Areas

• Church View
• Jamaica
• Saluda

   Do you have
 Internet at home
      Yes

     No

     Business

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Now and Into the Future

   BROADBAND DEMAND

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Middlesex Survey Response Locations
                                  406 Responses, nicely scattered across
                                  county – good representation.
Businesses
                                  95% +/- 4.65% based on occupied
Residential                       households (4,432)

                                  Means between 90.36% - 99.64%
                                  certainty that these results
                                  representative across the county.

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Middlesex Survey responses by Zip Code
                                Hardyville 23070 Church View 23032 Water View 23180
                                      2%                4%                5%
                                                                           Jamaica 23079
                            Saluda 23149                                        6%
                                17%                                            Topping
                                                                                23169
                                                                                 7%
            Urbanna 23175
                 15%

                                                                                   Wake
                 Hartfield 23071                                                   23176
                       15%                                                          8%
                                             Deltaville 23043
                                                  13%
                                                                             Locust Hill
                                                                               23092
                                                                                8%

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Middlesex Survey Respondents by Age
                    25 to 34                                                            Recall median age: 51.5
                      8%                               55 to 64
45 to 54
                                                         23%
  13%                                                                                   Largest age group is 65-74

                                                                                        18-24 yrs ~ 5% of pop. contributed
    35 to 44
                                                  18 to 24                              1/5 of the responses.
      17%
                                                    21%
                                                                                                                     1
                                                                                    1

                     65 or older                                         1
                                                                                                          1
                        18%                                 868                                                                902
                                                                                              814

                           564        530        539
             482
 384
                                                                                                                                            307

Under 5   5 to 9 years   10 to 14   15 to 19   20 to 24   25 to 34    35 to 44   45 to 54   55 to 59   60 to 64   65 to 74   75 to 84   85 years and
 years                    years      years      years      years       years      years      years      years      years      years         over

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What are Middlesex citizen’s doing online?
              Online Activities
                       Email friends/family
                     Make purchase online
Social networking (Facebook, Twitter, etc.)
                            Read the news
                                   Pay bills
              Watch videos/Listen to music
                 Gather health information
               Gather financial information
                                Play games
              Search for work/employment
                                Read blogs
         Call long distance or international
                                               0     50      100     150   200   250   300   350   400

  Take Away: Generally low bandwidth activities.
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Middlesex Reported Residential Access

Do you have Internet
  access at home?

                 No
                 14%

         Yes
         86%

                       No

                       Yes

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Middlesex No Internet at Home (14%)
                                Locust Hill 23092
                                       4%
                                              Water View
            Urbanna 23175
                                                23180
                 5%          Wake 23176           2%
                                5%
   Church View 23032                                              Saluda 23149
           7%                                                         22%

              Deltaville 23043
                   10%
                                                                             Topping 23169
                                                                                  19%
                       Hartfield 23071
                             12%
                                                  Jamaica 23079
                                                      14%

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Why No Internet Service at Home?
                            (of the 14% that responded no access)
                                                  Use it
                                  Use Cellular School/Work
              Digital Literacy        1%           2%
                    5%

                                                          Too Expensive
                                                               29%

                  Not Available
                      63%

  Take away: Most who don’t have service say service is not available.
             Too expensive for 29%
  NOTE: 10 survey respondents stated they do not have a computer at home due to
  cost
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Where No Internet at Home
                              of the 14% that responded not available (63%)
                      Locust Hill 23092 Wake 23176
                             3%            2%      Water
                          Deltaville 23043       View23180
                                3%                  2%

        Urbanna 23175
             5%
                                                                     Saluda 23149
 Church View 23032
        7%                                                               24%

        Hartfield 23071
              10%

                                                                        Topping 23169
                                                                             24%
                                 Jamaica 23079
                                     20%

              Take away: Internet availability issues in Jamaica, Saluda, Topping
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Where No Internet at Home
                       of the 14% that responded too expensive (29%)

                                    Saluda 23149
               Locust Hill 23092         6%
                      6%

                                                                 Deltaville 23043
                    Wake 23176                                        29%
                       12%

                Topping 23169
                     24%                                    Hartfield 23071
                                                                  23%

            Take away: Internet pricing issues in Deltaville, Topping and Hartfield
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Home Internet Connections
                                     Other
                        Don't know                 Dial-up
                                      2%
                            9%                       2%
     Satellite
       10%
                                                              Cable
                                                               37%

  Cellular
   10%
                                                        DSL
                   Fixed Wireless                       17%
                        13%

       Take away: 39% of respondents depend on inadequate services
                  DSL may be oversubscribed so new service may not be available
                  20% depend on cost prohibitive services (data caps etc.)
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Access for Work/Business
         Own a business                                              Home based business

               Yes                                                      Yes
               24%                                                      25%

                              No                                                       No
                             76%                                                      75%

                                        Does anyone work from home?
                      No, but I would
                          if I had
                       access/better                           Yes
                      access at home
                                                               45%
                            18%

                                           No
                                           37%

Take away – 18% would work from home if they could – remember the majority (39%) depend
upon DSL, Cellular or Satellite services.
   2/28/2017                                 Prepared by CIT                                36
Home based businesses
                           Yes
                           25%

                                      No
                                      75%

                                            Home based
                                            businesses
                                            operating all
                                            across the county

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Business Internet Connections
                                                Don't know
                                    Satellite       2%            Dial-up
                                      7%                            1%
                            Other
                             8%
                                                                            Cable
                  Fixed                                                     45%
                 Wireless
                   16%

                                                DSL
                                                21%

Take Away: 29% of businesses rely on inadequate connection types.

From survey: 95% use the Internet to support their business.
             95% report Internet is very important or critical to their businesses.

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Quality of Business Connections
                                                                   Lack of
                                                                 technical
                                                                  support        I'm satisfied
                                                                     2%              11%

   Inadequate -                                                                           Service is
     does not             Adequate -                 Too expensive                        unreliable
     meet our              meets all                      50%                                18%
      needs               our needs
       45%                  55%                                              Connection
                                                                              too slow
                                                                                19%

                                         Take away:
                  45% of businesses rate their connections as inadequate
                  19% cite connection too slow
                  50% cite cost of service as primary reason for dissatisfaction

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Business Locations Reporting
               Inadequate Connections
                                                             Topping 23169
                              Church View 23032                   5%
                                     5%
                         Wake 23176
                            8%                                                      Hartfield 23071
                                                                                          22%
                      Jamaica
                       23079
                        8%
                                Locust Hill 23092
                                                                                                  Urbanna 23175
                                      10%
                                                                                                      17%

                                          Deltaville 23043
                                               10%                       Saluda 23149
                                                                             15%

                                                                   All but one respondent reported that
                                                                   the Internet was Very Important or
Home based business                                                Critical to their business.

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Businesses Inadequate Connections
                             Connection Types
                    Other
                     8%
                                 Satellite
                                   8%
                                                      Cable TV modem
                                                            30%
            Fixed Wireless
                 20%                                                       Dial-up
                                                                             2%

                               DSL enabled
                                phone line
                                   27%
                                                                       Don't know
                                                                           5%

 Unexpected take away: 30% report cable is inadequate for their needs. Segments
 over subscribed and need fiber upgrades.
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Inadequate Business Cable Connections

      Take away: Hartfield, Locust Hill and Deltaville need cable upgrades.
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Vertical Assets, Fiber, Conduit and Community Anchors

   LOCAL ASSETS

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Middlesex Vertical Assets

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Middlesex Cellular Towers

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Middlesex Emergency Services

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Middlesex Schools and Libraries
                                YMCA and CC

               Concentrated in the southeastern portion of the county

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WILTON PARCEL A
WILTON PARCEL A
MOORES CREEK ESTATES
JACKSONS CREEK 40-9
                       Middlesex County Parcels
WILTON ELEMENTARY SCHOOL (YMCA)
COUNTY OF MIDDLESEX
JACKSONS CREEK 41-7
JACKSONS CREEK      41-7
MILL CREEK     41-7
DELTAVILLE      41-7
STINGRAY-BROAD CRK DREDGE
TIMBER NECK     41-4
SHOOTERS HILL SEC II LOT 6A
PUBLIC LANDING     40-6
PUBLIC LANDING NORTH END
LANDFILL-MAINT BLDG
PIANKATANK
PARADISE
NOHEAD
NOHEAD
PUBLIC LANDING RT 621
COOKS CORNER-PULLER CNTR
COOKS CORNER-PULLER CNTR
HEALTH CENTER
MIDDLE SCHOOL
SALUDA
AIRPORT
Middlesex Co Court House
MIDDLE SCHOOL
SALUDA
PUBLIC LANDING RT 634
PUBLIC LANDING RT 617
PINE TREE
ROBERTSON DUMPSTER SITE
SALUDA
RAPPAHANNOCK CENTRAL              All east of Rt 17; Deltaville, Hartfield, Saluda, Toping
AIRPORT
SYRINGA
SYRINGA

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Middlesex Business Locations

   Businesses reported in all parts of the county but concentrated in the south east.
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Middlesex
Commercial Fiber

    FTS (not shown)

    All overlapping routes

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Affect the Broadband Economics

   REVIEW OF LOCAL POLICIES & FEES

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Make sure your policies and procedures are
                             “Broadband Friendly”

Review comprehensive plans, community zoning regulations and process, policies, fees, etc.
must encourage and enable broadband investment.

Review local franchise agreements should be reviewed for setback or long-drop policy, and
that information should be conveyed to all new homebuilders, and real estate developers.

Policy Considerations for Telecommunications Deployment
https://www.wired.virginia.gov/sites/default/files/Telecom%20Deployment%20Policy%20Recs.pdf

Policy Assessment - Areas to Consider
https://www.wired.virginia.gov/sites/default/files/Policy%20Assessment%20Tool%20Guide_0.pdf

Policy Assessment worksheet:
https://www.wired.virginia.gov/sites/default/files/Policy-Assessment-Tool.xlsx

Google Fiber Checklist:
https://fiber.storage.googleapis.com/legal/googlefibercitychecklist2-24-14.pdf

                         Remember: to make it “cheap, quick & easy”
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Assessment Based

   COMMUNITY BROADBAND NEEDS

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Needs Identified
•   Technology Adoption
     – Digital Literacy
            • 27% of population are 65 or over and 16% of population have a disability
            • OPTION: Implement and Promote library computer literacy classes - don’t forget senior
              centers!
      – Affordability
            • 30% of population may have affordability challenges
            • OPTION: Consider a computer refurb/donation program such as Virginia Star - a state-
              wide Student Training and Refurbishment program; http://vastar.org/
•   Demand
     – Residential
            •   20% rely upon cellular or satellite
            •   39% have inadequate services (DSL, dial up, cellular, satellite)
            •   14% report NO access at all
            •   OPTION: Expand access and capacity to Saluda, Topping, Jamaica
            •   OPTION: Negotiate pricing in Deltaville, Hartfield, Topping
      – Businesses
            • 45% state they need more than they have today (27% DSL, 30% Cable, 8% Satellite)
                  – Cable segments may be exhausted, may need fiber upgrade in Deltaville, Hartfield, Locust Hill
            • 25% (of all respondents) have home based businesses
                  – 17% DSL, 10% Cellular, 10% Satellite – better services might grow businesses
            • OPTION: Expand access and capacity - Hartfield stands out but home businesses are all
              over the county.

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Needs Identified (Cont’d)
 Schools
      –     USAC (e-Rate) / NCES
              • 3, 1 Gbps leased connections from Gans Communications, LP at $800 per connection, contract
                expires; 06/30/2021
              • 1, 650 Mbps Internet connection from Gans Communications, LP at $3,950 per month, ~$6. per
                Mb, contract expires; 06/30/2021
               497 Mbps per 1000 students/teachers – Well above the FCC recommendation of 100Mb per
                1000 Students + staff

•   Libraries
      –     USAC, Library of Virginia speed test and survey
              • Purchasing 20 Mbps fiber (2) from Gans Communications, LP @ $501.02 (x2) per month, ~$25.
                per Mb (Median for rural libraries $21.65 per Mb) – Below national recommendation of 100
                Mbps for those libraries serving communities of 50,000 or less (Middlesex estimated total pop
                10,817)
                    – OPTION: Expand access and capacity to libraries (Deltaville and Urbanna,) negotiate
                       pricing (currently on month-to-month contract) or use as leverage.
               According to speed test, median download 76 Mbps, median latency 23 ms
               Public computers and workforce development available at Urbanna Branch
               Computer literacy/training classes offered at Urbanna Branch
•   Comprehensive Plan - No broadband mentioned in Comprehensive Plan!
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Potential Funding
  https://www.wired.virginia.gov/broadband/resources
             Look Under Funding Options

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E-Rate – already participating: February 3 - May 26 (Schools) or July 21 (Libraries and Consortia)

Lifeline Support http://www.lifelinesupport.org/ls/changes-to-lifeline.aspx - Open all year

USDA is NOW accepting applications for the Community Connect Grant Program for FY 2017.
These grants may be used to provide broadband service in unserved, lower-income and
extremely rural areas.

USDA Distance Learning and Telemedicine Program (DLT)
http://www.rurdev.usda.gov/UTP_DLT.html The application window is announced annually

USDA Telecommunications Infrastructure Loans & Loan Guarantees
http://www.rd.usda.gov/programs-services/farm-bill-broadband-loans-loan-guarantees NOTE:
These loans are for local incumbent providers. Open annually around April

USDA Distance Learning and Telemedicine Program (DLT)
http://www.rurdev.usda.gov/UTP_DLT.html - The application window is announced annually

The Vibrant Community Initiative (VCI) http://www.dhcd.virginia.gov/index.php/community-
partnerships-dhcd/vibrant-community-initiative.html Application Due: TBD (tentatively Feb 17)

Virginia Telecommunication Initiative http://www.dhcd.virginia.gov/ - depends on further
funding. TBA
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Next Steps
• Identify and Prioritize Goals Based on Needs
• Determine the role the local government will
  assume in achieving the goals; (Partnership
  model, decision points documents)
     – Review CIT Partnership Models Handout
     – Decisions need to be adopted by the COUNTY
       /Authority - county procurement needs to put out
       the RFP
• CIT will draft Requirements Document for
  potential RFP
• Seek private partner(s)
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Questions? Comments?

                             Contact Information

                 Jean Plymale, Broadband Project Manager
                 Jean.plymale@cit.org
                 540-250-2751

                 Sandie Terry, VP Broadband
                 Sandie.terry@cit.org
                 540-420-4929

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