TREND VISION 2020 How To Make The Future Manageable - Ipsos
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TREND VISION 2020 How To Make The Future Manageable
Trend Vision 2020
Russia A CRISIS LIKE
NO OTHER,
The world is trying to understand the impact caused by the
global COVID-19 pandemic. Uncertainty remains. We do not
yet know if there will be a second wave or further AN UNCERTAIN
consequences, and what our "new reality" will ultimately be.
RECOVERY
In this issue of the annual Trend Vision report we talk about
trends, signals of change and how to analyze them,
in order to make the future, in which this crisis is not
the last one, to be not a frightening «black box», but a
platform for exciting experiments for successful brands
and companies focused on long-term sustainability.
International Monetary Fund.
2 ‒ © Ipsos | Trend Vision 2020. Russia World Economic Outlook. June 24th 2020
CONTENTS
1. ECONOMIC OUTLOOK
2. LIFE STAGE. Perception of the crisis
depending on the stage of life
3. THE CREATIVE ROLE OF CRISES
4. LOOKING FOR BALANCE
• Physical security – Digital security
• Technology – Humanity
• Online – Offline
• Accelerate – Slow down
• Ecology – Economy
5. MONITORING OF CHANGES
6. GUIDELINES FOR THE FUTURE
3 ‒ © Ipsos | Trend Vision 2020. Russia
ECONOMIC OUTLOOK 4 ‒ © Ipsos | Trend Vision 2020. Russia
COVID-19 AND ITS CONSEQUENCES
Effect of COVID-19 on
Period of Drop in industrial family financial status
non-working days production
Got worse significantly 24
The dynamics of the decline in industrial Got a little worse 40
To prevent the spread of production in Russia in June on an Not changed 31
coronavirus pandemic in annualized basis remained negative and
Improved 4
Russia, non-working days were almost unchanged compared to May 2020.*
announced from March 30 to
The largest decline is in the commodity Q: How has COVID-19 / coronavirus affected your family's
April 5, 2020. sector. financial situation (including all cash receipts - salary,
pensions, benefits, etc.) over the past 7 days?
The period of non-working days, Due to COVID-19 your salary…
were workers didn’t work, but Dynamics of industrial production
kept their salary, was extended in Russia, % remained unchanged 23
3,3
twice before ending on 11 May. 1,1
0,3 decreased, but the amount of
3
work has remained the same 27
Jan'20 Feb'20 Mar20 Apr'20 May'20 Jun'20 decreased in proportion to the
decrease in the volume of work
increased 47
-6,6
-9,6 -9,4 Source: Ipsos Adapt! June 2020
Source: Federal Sate Statistics Service, Russia
Base: 18-65 y.o., cities 1 mln+, N=3000
5 ‒ © Ipsos | Trend Vision 2020. Russia *Source: Interfax IA based Federal Sate Statistics Service Data
THE RECOVERY OF THE RUSSIAN
ECONOMY IS PLANNED IN THREE STAGES
The Russian government's economic recovery plan is designed in Ready to return to “previous life” after Russia is in top of countries
three stages. It contains 500 new measures with a budget of ALL restrictions will be removed, % ready to re-engage
approximately RUB 5 trillion over two years. Comfort with Re-engage & Mitigate
Comfort Re-engage only
First step I will not return to most
previous habits
9 Comfort Mitigate only
Until the end of Q3/2020. Stabilize the situation, prevent a further Comfort neither Re-engage nor Mitigate
drop in household income Only when the vaccine appears 9
Russia 51% 26% 11%12%
Second phase Immediately upon lifting
restrictions
44
Up to Q2/2021. Complete the economic recovery process, reduce Japan 53% 7% 30% 10%
the unemployment rate, ensure the growth of citizens' incomes to Within one month 15
a level comparable to 2019. Italy 44% 10%
33%
13%
Within 1-3 months 11
Stage three
Until Q3-Q4/2021. Reaching sustainable economic growth Within 3-6 months 7 France 44% 9% 38% 9%
In July 2020, from the decree on the national development goals of Within 6-12 months 4 USA 41% 11% 42% 7%
Russia until 2030, the goal for Russia to enter the five largest
economies in the world disappeared, which was formulated in the Source: Ipsos Global Advisor. Resumption vs Protection
Source: Ipsos Adapt! June 2020
decree of 2018. The reason is the unfavorable market conditions. Base: 18-65 y.o., cities 1 mln+, N=3000
Base: 16-74 y.o. Apr 24 - May 8, 2020. N=19 000
6 ‒ © Ipsos | Trend Vision 2020. Russia
RETURN TO GDP GROWTH
EXPECTED IN 2021
The fall in GDP in 2020 is greater than in 2014,
but less than 2009
At the end of June, the IMF worsened its forecast for Russia, GDP Change. Projections for 2020-2021yy
announcing a fall in GDP in 2020 by 6.6% (in April, the forecast Yearly percent change
was for a fall of 5.5%). In contrast, the forecast for 2021 was
World
raised to 4.1% from 3.5% in April 2020. 8,2
8,5
6,4 Russia
5,2
The main reason for the decline is crucial 5,4 5,1 5,4
drop in oil prices 3,6 3,8 3,6
3,5 3,5 3,4 3,4
The reason for the projected sharp decline in Russia in 2020 is 5,5 5,6 2,9
4,9
the significant decline in disposable income due to the rapid 4,5 4,3 3,7 4,1
3 0,7 0,3
decline in oil prices. -0,1 2,3
1,8 1,6
1,3
2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021
IMF predicts gradual recovery
The COVID-19 pandemic had a more negative impact on -2,5 -4,9
economic activity in the first half of 2020 than expected,
according to the World Economic Outlook Update. The
recovery is forecasted to be more gradual than previously -6,6
predicted. -7,8
Source: International Monetary Fund. World Economic Outlook Update, June 2020
7 ‒ © Ipsos | Trend Vision 2020. Russia
CONSUMERS ALSO EXPECT
SITUATION TO BE BETTER IN A YEAR
In May 2020, the negative perception of the current situation in Russia, People see the situation around the COVID-19 pandemic as less
which has been growing at an increased rate since the beginning of 2020, negative than after the VAT increase and the announcement of the
turned out to be higher than the crisis peak in 2014. Even having pension reform in 2018, but more negative than the crisis in 2014.
decreased by 3ppt in June 2020, the value of the negative perception of However, in June 2020 there were signs of optimism.
the current situation is still higher than the peak in 2014.
PERCEPTION OF CURRENT ECONOMIC SITUATION EXPECTATION
As compared to a year ago, % changes in one year, %
100 100
85
90 81 82 82 90
Worse
80 80
69 68 68
70 64 62 70
58
60 52 51 53 52
48
60
48 Will be
46 47 46
50 43 42 42 42 50 41 42 43 42 42 44 45 41 41 worse
35 36 35 35 33 31 33
36
40 32 33 30 40 32
30 29 29 28 29 29 28 27
30 19 19 20 19 30
20 11 13
15 14 12 20 29 29 23 29 29 27 12 14 26 Will be
11 10 9 8 8 8 7 8 27 29 25 27 27 24 23 26 22 25
6 3
6 5 6 5 17 22 better
10 2 1 2 Better 10 15 13 14 16 13
0 0
Q3 Q4 Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4 Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4 Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4 Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4 Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4 03 04 05 06 Q3 Q4 Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4 Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4 Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4 Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4 Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4 03 04 05 06
2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020
Q: How the economic situation in Russia has been changed since last year / will be changed in one year?
Source: Ipsos. The “New Reality” Monitoring
8 ‒ © Ipsos | Новая реальность, 06'20
Base: 18-65 y.o., Russian cities 100 mln+, N=1000
LIFE STAGE PERCEPTION OF THE CRISIS DEPENDING ON THE STAGE OF LIFE 9 ‒ © Ipsos | Trend Vision 2020. Russia
LIFE STAGE SEGMENTATION Years of experience in conducting sociological and segmentation studies have shown that the most important differentiating characteristics are age, marital status, the presence of children and the composition of those living together in a household. The Life Stage segmentation is based on these characteristics. It describes all stages of a person's life path and can most clearly reflect the reaction of people to changes in external environment, including crises. A total of 11 consumer segments have been identified. For ease of perception, in this review, we have combined segments similar in type of behavior into five enlarged groups that have the most striking differences. Descriptions are on the next slide. 10 ‒ © Ipsos | Trend Vision 2020. Russia
LIFE STAGE SEGMENT PROFILES
AND AGGREGATED GROUPS
Life Stage Empty Single
Young without children Middle age Parents pensioners
segmentation nests
characterizes a Parents of Parents of
Middle-aged Parents of Parents of adult
person's needs Fledglings Left the nest Nest Builders couples without
Middle-aged
singles
preschool
children
younger
children
teenagers children Empty Nests
Single
Pensioners
at different children
(0-5 y.o.) (6-11 y.o.)
(12-18 y.o.) (19+ y.o.)
stages of life
7%* 3% 8% 2% 2% 15% 8% 8% 14% 16% 6%
Age 16-39 16-39 16-39 40-54 40-54 18-54 23-59 28-65 35+ 45+ 55+
Not married / Not married / Married / Married / Not married / Not married /
Family status Any Any Any Any Any
Divorced Divorced Living together Living together / Widow(er)) / Widow(er)
Children No No No No Yes / No Yes Yes Yes Yes Yes Yes / No
Who lives Spouses / Spouses / Spouses / Spouses /
Spouses / Spouses / Spouses /
together in the Parents - - Parents / Parents / Parents / Parents / -
Parents Parents Parents
household Children Children Children Children
11 ‒ © Ipsos | Trend Vision 2020. Russia *Source: Ipsos. RusIndex 2020/I
Base: Russians 16-75, cities 100K+PERCEPTION OF THE CRISIS
DEPENDING ON THE STAGE OF A PERSON'S LIFE
Three out of four (75%) agree they live in dangerous and anxious times, CRISIS BEHAVIOUR PATTERNS DEPENDING
but only 28% do not believe that they can change their lives. How does the ON THEIR STAGE OF LIFE
perception of the situation change depending on their stage of life? The
analysis is based on statements that most accurately reflect the behavior Anxious - Active Anxious – Passive
We live in a dangerous, troubled time
of the population in terms of the level of anxiety and readiness to act.
• Calm – Active Parents 110
Empty nests Single
• Young people are ambitious and do not feel anxious, because they are pensioners
not yet burdened with serious life obligations and have the "safety
cushion" of their parents, with whom many still live with. 80 100 120 140
• Anxious – Active
• Parents, despite mild anxiety, are confident that they are the masters Young Middle age
of their lives and are active. without…
• Anxious – Passive Calm - Active Apathetic
The Lonely Pensioners and Empty Nests groups are anxious but do
80
•
There is little I can change in my life
nothing.
Source: Ipsos. RusIndex 2020/1. Segmentation Life Stage
Base: Russians 16-75, cities 100K+. Fieldwork: March 16 – May 6, 2020
• Apathetic
The value on the axes are Affinity Index.
• Middle-aged people without children are the only one of all segments Affinity Index shows the level of significance of a particular statement to the analyzed segments. The average value of
to change their emotional state from calm-active to apathetic in a year. the index is 100 points.
The size of the circle corresponds to the volume of the segment.
12 ‒ © Ipsos | Trend Vision 2020. RussiaYOUNG PEOPLE
ARE MOST SENSITIVE TO CRISIS Adaptation
In the past it was better than now
Comparison of the data of the first wave of 2020 with the same I'm completely satisfied with my present-day life
period last year shows that the younger generation is more Income
susceptible to the deterioration of sentiment in connection with the Faced salary decrease
ALL 16-75
Single 46 Young
present time. pensioners without
Faced layoffs
28 children
Decreased life satisfaction ALL 16-75
55
41
23 28
The share of those who noted that in the past it was better than 21
Young without
now increased significantly among young people without children, 15 children
Middle age
from 29% to 41%. And the number of those satisfied with their lives Single Empty 24
23 31
pensioners 21 nests 45
among the young population has decreased from 32% to 28%. 28
50
10 8
More likely to have suffered fall in income 47 Parents
Empty 9
Young people without children were more likely to have face layoffs 15
8,5
nests
- 21%. Also in this group there is a significant increase in the share 20
Middle age
of those who faced a decrease in salaries. 15 29
Source: Ipsos. RusIndex 2019/I – 2020/I.
Segmentation Life Stage
23 Base: Russians 16-75, cities 100K+.
Fieldwork: March 16 – May 6, 2020
Parents
23 Agree with statement, %
13 ‒ © Ipsos | Trend Vision 2020. Russia Significantly higher Significantly lower
2019/1 2019/1JOB TROUBLES
CHANGING THE PRIORITY OF LIFE GOALS
ATTITUDE TO WORK LIFE GOALS
• The relevance of job search is growing Healthy lifestyle
• The importance of finding or changing jobs in the next 12 I work primarily for money
Finding or changing jobs
months has grown significantly for almost all segments (from I see my job as a career rather
17% to 22% ). A healthy lifestyle, the priority of which was than just a job 45 ALL 16-75
Single pensioners Young without
stated by half of the respondents in 2019/1. Although it is still ALL 16-75
children
top, it fell to 45% - mainly down to those for whom it is now 61 56
Young without 22
more important to regain employment and income. Single pensioners children 40
5 29
64
• Income is a bigger priority than career 55 24
13
• The number of those who noted that they go to work primarily 36
Middle
15
for money has increased from 55% to 61%. And the number 10
27
age
of people who perceive their work as a career, rather than just 14 16 Empty 38
23
a job, dropped from 27% to 24%. 24
nests 50
51
62
• Saving income is most important for the young segment and Empty nests Middle
parents. In the middle-aged segment, career ambitions have age Parents
46
declined. Parents 64
Source: Ipsos. RusIndex 2019/I – 2020/I.
Segmentation Life Stage
Base: Russians 16-75, cities 100K+.
Fieldwork: March 16 – May 6, 2020
Agree with statement, %
14 ‒ © Ipsos | Trend Vision 2020. Russia Significantly higher Significantly lower
2019/1 2019/1THE CREATIVE ROLE OF CRISES 15 ‒ © Ipsos | Trend Vision 2020. Russia
DUALITY OF CRISES.
CREATION THROUGH DESTRUCTION
Crisis = problem
Crises associated with the breakdown of familiar patterns and the loss of connections also
I like order and structured habits
stimulate the creation of something new. Not all people are ready to see crises as a 7,6
stimulus for development, only 13.6% of residents of cities with a population of one million
have flexible thinking and are not afraid of the new, in particular, only 0.5% of respondents 23,6% I prefer stable life, without much change
8,6
say they are looking for a new challenge. Tend to a
predetermined
I am the rational one who seeks to keep
order of things
Salvation in creation everything under control
4,6
I struggle with stress and pressure
Creation in a crisis can serve as a way to distract from unfavorable external circumstances, 2,8
and also acts as a protective mechanism.
Leading brands resist crises by activating co-creation resources, involving employees, Crisis = opportunity
customers, like-minded people and partners. I try to find smart ways to solve issues 5,4
See the bright side Rescue in 100 hours 13,6% I like to restlessly explore new things 4,9
Have flexible
CASE: In the IsoIsolation Facebook group, CASE: Mercedes created a mass breathing mind and are not
people created copies of world art masterpieces apparatus in 100 hours, based on the same afraid of new I try to foresees and to be prepared for 2,8
from scratch. The group gathered 600,000 principle that works in racing cars. Drawings are unpredicted in advance
participants. now available free of charge.
I am looking for a new challenge 0,5
People struggle with social deprivation through The company moved from a forced shutdown of
an accessible form of creation and through peer business to creation for the benefit of society. Q: Which one of these attributes describes you best?
16 ‒
approval.
© Ipsos | Trend Vision 2020. Russia Source: Ipsos Adapt! June 2020
Base: 18-65 y.o., Russian cities 1 mln+, N=3000What will our future look like
What is outside A future that
our control we can create
Based on four key questions
1 2 3 4
How will our How different How can I plan What should I
values change will the future for multiple be monitoring
over time? be from what scenarios? and why?
went before?
© Ipsos | Trend Vision 2020. RussiaFUTURES
BUILDING SCENARIOS
In English, the plural form of the noun Future - "Futures" is used to denote
the multivariance of the future.
There is no plural form of the noun "Future" in Russian.
At the linguistic level, it is predetermined that the future is unique and
indefinite.
The scenario-based, multivariate future approach makes uncertainty
manageable. Tracking signals of change is at the heart of creating
scenarios.
In this issue of Trend Vision 2020, we have collected trends and signals that
the COVID-19 pandemic has brought or increased the relevance of.
18 ‒ © Ipsos | Trend Vision 2020. RussiaWHAT ARE
SIGNALS OF CHANGE?
Signals of change are what is already happening today and
may offer an insight into the future.
A signal can be a new invention or product, a new business,
or a new behavior.
A signal can be not only the creation of something new, but
also the destruction of something existing.
A signal demonstrates that the order of things or our future,
can be different.
19 ‒ © Ipsos | Trend Vision 2020. RussiaANALYZING SIGNALS OF CHANGE
Ipsos TrendTRAC
New behaviors, products, services
Changes in crises does not mean a
strict substitution of one for the other.
Violation of the existing order of
things triggers the search
R REVERSE A ACCELERATE
Expressing underlying values
Changes that run counter to basic values or previously Some signals seem to ‘double down’ on global values, and
In tension with pre-existing
mechanisms for new equilibrium, as
relevant trends. If these changes do not meet the new represent new ways of meeting needs which were already
values or social trends
a result, there is a rebalancing of strongly expressed and dominant. These are trends which
needs created by the crisis, these changes will reverse (R)
interrelated things.
or social trends
over time. are likely to accelerate (A) values or behaviours which we
But it is important not just to record saw before the pandemic.
the changes taking place at an early
stage (to see the signals). It is
important to analyze how they can
affect the transition from one state to
another, and what scenarios of the
T TRANSFORM C CONSOLIDATE
future will activate or accelerate. Tensions between consumer or social needs point the way to Some changes will simply allow existing trends to continue (C)
potential for transformative (T) new trends. These ideas will - these should be monitored to identify where reactive change
For this, we rely on the Ipsos need to be monitored. They can be used as stimulus for creative is not necessary, reassuring you of the areas where
TrendTRAC framework. strategising, or to inspire innovations which can be piloted. consistency is required.
Existing behaviours, products, services
See for more details: New Futures. Building a world after Covid-19
20 ‒ © Ipsos | Trend Vision 2020. RussiaLOOKING FOR BALANCE 21 ‒ © Ipsos | Trend Vision 2020. Russia
A crisis is a loss of balance
between interconnected things
Recovery happens through finding
new principles of balancing
22 ‒ © Ipsos | Trend Vision 2020. RussiaPhysical security –
Digital security
23 ‒ © Ipsos | Trend Vision 2020. RussiaSECURITY 360˚
AS A KEY VALUE
The pandemic has dramatically reduced the number of places where people feel
safe. The Russian consumer dislikes uncertainty and expects brands and THE LOSS OF A BASIC SENSE
authorities to help overcome anxiety. OF SECURITY IS VERY
The emergence of low-touch economy
The pandemic has spawned a request for purchases while maintaining
ACUTELY PERCEIVED BY
distance and minimizing touch to external objects. EVERYONE, BECAUSE IN OUR
New hygiene rituals NOTORIOUS PYRAMID OF
Revival of hand hygiene. We wash our hands more often. Sanitizers are on
every shelf, in every purse and in all public places. NEEDS IT IS PRECISELY AT
Competition for a seat on a mobile phone THE CORE.
With the growing trend towards contactless, the smartphone is becoming the
main tool for interacting with the world. But there are many more brands
offering their applications than the memory of a consumer's phone can AND WHEN WE LOSE OUR
accommodate.
SENSE OF SECURITY, WE
At the peak of online, the level of cyber threat has increased
Businesses needs to educate their employees on the principles of "network COLLAPSE VERY QUICKLY.
hygiene" and strengthen the protection of customer personal data.
Safety is an obligatory part of corporate responsibility
The role of brands is not just to find common values with the consumer, but to
Larisa Pyzhyanova
become for him/her an island of calmness in the midst of a disturbing world, a Crisis psychologist of the Ministry of Emergency Situations of Russia,
guide and mentor in embracing change. psychologist of the children's hospice "House with a lighthouse"
24 ‒ © Ipsos | Trend Vision 2020. Russia Ph.D., author of books and scientific worksTHE TOUCH-LESS ECONOMY
BORN OF THE COVID-19 PANDEMIC
Phrase of the Year 2020 – Social Distance (6ft). Even after
COVID-19 is eliminated, other dangerous viruses will remain Restriction of physical contact because TOUCH WITHOUT TOUCHING
in the world. In cities, where objects in public places touch of the COVID-19 pandemic,%
thousands of hands, low-touch routines become an important
driver of changes in the social environment and the way for Avoided close contacts
55
with other people
organizations and consumers to interact.
Limited customer care Tried not to leave home 52
The consumer seeks a return to a pre-pandemic world, but the Tried to avoid travelling
51
business is in a situation of survival, subject to the obligatory by public transport
observance of official restrictions and can no longer focus only Avoided handshakes with others 50
on the wishes of the client.
SIGNAL A kind of a plaster has been developed,
Cancelled plans for visiting which helps to feel the touch of a person in
New types of advertising media events with scores of people
40
a distance – from anywhere in the world.
Thermal imaging for non-contact temperature measurement Replaced a personal trip to the
18 WHAT IT CHANGES
store / cafe with an online order
and contactless terminals for hand disinfection have been It becomes possible to transmit tactile
installed in the Moscow metro, which are already beginning to sensations to a distance without the need
for expensive equipment.
be equipped with screens for displaying advertising – which Source: Ipsos Adapt! June 2020
indicates the long-term plans for their usage. Base: 18-65 y.o., cities 1 mln+, N=3000
25 ‒ © Ipsos | Trend Vision 2020. RussiaNEW RITUALS OF
THE LOW-TOUCH ECONOMY
Keep distance - Did you wash the Food hygiene
cookie wrapper, too?
In Russia, 75%* of the population lives in cities. In megacities, people are already Did you treat bought food with antiseptic
before use or immediately after purchase? %
experiencing a shortage of personal space. Social distancing, the transition of - Sure.
touching strangers to the status of undesirable behavior, for many will make urban
spaces more comfortable. - It's paper!
Yes, all products 25
- I'm not under the tap!
Keep your hands clean
Source:
• Minimum touching of • Hand washing, a hundred • Sanitizers have appeared social media monitoring Yes, partly 22
external objects in public years after the recognition in all public places, in
places, incl. to pay for of its usefulness, is handbags and on
purchases. After the experiencing a renaissance supermarket shelves.
COVID-19 pandemic, and has gone from a Cosmetic giants L'Oreal and No 53
there will still be contact- routine chore to an Coty began production of
transmitted diseases essential part of daily life. sanitizers. In the Ipsos
in the world. As of the Ipsos Adapt! Adapt! survey, 48% of
survey, 68% of respondents respondents used Source: Ipsos Adapt! June 2020
washed their hands more antiseptics more often than Base: 18-65 y.o., cities 1 mln+, N=3000
often than usual. usual.
26 ‒ © Ipsos | Trend Vision 2020. RussiaFIGHT FOR A SPACE
IN A MOBILE PHONE Installed apps (Top-10), % vs 2019/I
MINI APPS BY VK
With the development of the contactless economy, the smartphone Social media 77 -3,9pp
becomes an important tool for interacting with the outside world. Users
0,9pp
already have the problem of insufficient memory for the applications Mobile banks 76
they need. Each new version, often requiring more memory, each new
76 -0,2pp
application forces the user to sacrifice less significant applications ... Messangers, video calls
Maps, GPS-navigators 74 -3,3pp
What apps usage is going down?
Over the year, the share of used applications of social media, SIGNAL The VKontakte social media has launched
90 %
E-mail 74 -3,1pp
maps, e-mail and games has significantly decreased. the format of mini-applications that are
available via the link and do not require
Typically, these applications take up a lot of memory space. Order taxi 59 4,4pp installation into a mobile phone.
Have
58 -3,2pp WHAT IT CHANGES
Which ones are used more? smartphone* Games
Mini-apps do not occupy memory space
Over the year, the share of installed applications for ordering taxis, and do not compete with other apps on the
Watching video 58 1,2pp phone. They do not pretend to be
restaurants and food delivery services, and coupon service multifunctional but have a simple interface/
applications increased. Dating apps and personal budget Telecom operators apps 57 1,0pp At the peak of lockdown, the COVID-19
management apps have grown equally, with one in 10 having them mini-app was visited by 1 million people a
day.
installed. Internet shops 56 0,4pp
* Source: Ipsos. RusIndex 2020/I Source: Ipsos OnLife, 2020/I
Base: Russians 16-75 y.o., cities 100K+ 16-75 y.o., active Internet users, cities 100K+
Fieldwork March 16 – May 6, 2020 N=2500. March 2020
27 ‒ © Ipsos | Trend Vision 2020. RussiaSPEEDING UP THE TRANSITION TO DIGITAL
HAS INCREASED THE LEVEL OF CYBER THREATS
The higher the rate of digitalization, the higher the digital risks for users
FOCUS ON CYBERSECURITY
who do not have time to realize new threats
• Russia is striving to become a leader in the
implementation of digital services. Digital security I am concerned about
will be included in the concept of public security of how information being
the Russian Federation. collected about me
69%
when I go online
• 93% of respondents in Russia believe that in the
future, with the development of technology, people
is being
SIGNAL A study by Rostelecom showed that during the period
will lose their privacy (Ipsos Global Trends 2020) used by… of lockdown, the number of cases of theft of
corporate data increased by 25%. In Q1/2020, global
• At least once a month, media outlets in Russia Companies investment in cybersecurity increased by almost 10%
and reached 10.4 billion USD due to the switch to
63%
report leaks of user databases that leave their data remote work.
when interacting with organizations.
WHAT IT CHANGES
• At risk are not only those who leave a "digital The training of the people in the principles of
footprint" online, but also those who unwittingly cybersecurity will go, first of all, from the employer to
leave a "digital shadow". Government Source: the employees. As consumers, people will demand
Ipsos Global Trends 2020 that brands protect the data they collect and use it in
Base: 16-74 y.o. a transparent way.
Russia. N=500
28 ‒ © Ipsos | Trend Vision 2020. RussiaCONSUMER SAFETY IS PART OF
THE SOCIAL RESPONSIBILITY OF BRANDS
The role of brands in the post-pandemic world is not just to find IT'S SAFER NEXT TO BIG BRANDS
common values with consumers, but to become an island of
tranquility in the middle of a disturbing world, a guide and mentor
in embracing change.
During the lockdown brands actively helped consumers:
• They called to stay at home – Lay’s gave free chips, Lamoda temporarily
changed its name to LaDoma, The S7 airline offered consumers to “Fly at
home” and gave miles for it.
• Free masks and gloves are given out by many online retailers at store SIGNAL Sberbank and Pyaterochka (retail chain) began to contribute
to the creation of a safe public environment even before the
entrances, and Twitter has promised to create a post editor if everyone puts COVID-19 pandemic, launching a collaboration with the Lisa
on masks. Alert project to help lost people
• Tables with sanitizers appeared in retail, and Lush invited customers to
wash their hands right in stores. The S7 airline and Tinkoff Bank trained WHAT IT CHANGES
clients to wash their hands using an online game. There will be an increase in the number of social projects of
brands aimed at ensuring consumer safety in a broad sense
• Buy only what you need, not to overeat on lockdown – the Perekrestok retail – offline and in cyberspace
Что делать chain trained its customers– also through online game.
брендам
29 ‒ © Ipsos | Trend Vision 2020. RussiaIpsos TrendTRAC
Analyzing signals R REVERSE A ACCELERATE
CLEAN. SIGNAL Mass wearing of medical masks and gloves. Bikini turns into SIGNAL In June 2020, KFC in Moscow launched a pilot format with
trikini under the influence of coronavirus orders only through digital kiosks (without cash registers)
LOW-TOUCH. and with automatic delivery of orders.
WHAT IT CHANGES
SAFE Despite the idea of turning a bikini into a trikini, quickly WHAT IT CHANGES
distributed via social media, such a fashion, as well as Accelerating adoption of technologies that were perceived to be
In a world where social distancing has voluntarily wearing masks and gloves, is unlikely to take root ahead of the time, such as robots in mass service and self-
become a necessity, and physical and after the end of the pandemic. driving cars, are expected to supplant car sharing.
virtual safety are at the top of the
agenda, there is a request to minimize
touching surrounding objects to
T TRANSFORM C CONSOLIDATE
increase the level of public safety and
minimize the spread of viruses - as
COVID-19, the main reason of
changes in 2020, and other viruses. SIGNAL Recently, the media did not recommend to give biometrics. With the SIGNAL Further spread of QR codes: QR codes are replacing paper
What signals reflect changes in the end of lockdown, Sberbank and Visa launched glance payment with menus in restaurants.
the biometric data in the Prime cafe network in Moscow.
perception of security? WHAT IT CHANGES
WHAT IT CHANGES Assigning the function of a "personal control panel" to smartphones
Consumers do not always meet new technologies with enthusiasm, by interacting with commercial and public services. But if this trend
often preferring to stay in his "analog" world as long as possible. continues, there will be high competition for space in the
consumer's mobile phone due to limited memory resources. The
• What physical security challenges can digitalization help solve solution can be either in reducing the cost of mobile phone memory
quicker? or in returning to online solutions adapted to work from a mobile
• What digitalization challenges can be accelerated due to the device.
growing importance of human physical safety?
30 ‒ © Ipsos | Trend Vision 2020. RussiaTechnology –
Humanity
31 ‒ © Ipsos | Trend Vision 2020. RussiaTHE CRISIS HIGHLIGHTED
THE IMPORTANCE OF EMOTIONS IN
WE'RE PRACTICALLY CYBORGS
THE WORLD OF TECHNOLOGY
Adoption of technology between crises makes it easier to survive
ALREADY. THE PHONE, THE
moments of upheaval. People in Russia love technology, but their COMPUTER-THIS IS YOUR
favorite brands are still the ones that touch them emotionally. CONTINUATION.
Russia has a high level of technology adoption
People in Russia have a positive attitude to new technologies, as it BUT YOUR INTERACTION IS DONE
opens up new opportunities for them BY MOVING YOUR FINGERS OR
Innovation is not the main thing for brands SPEECH, WHICH IS VERY SLOW.
Brands are based on an emotional connection with the consumer.
Technology brings the danger of "dehumanizing "– by moving too A BRAIN-CONTROLLED INTERFACE
fast brands can lose sight of consumers' emotions and lose their
trust. The value of technology through the eyes of consumers is to WILL APPEAR, I THINK, IN FOUR
help people better understand themselves. OR FIVE YEARS.
The value of empathy and trust is growing
You need to ask questions about the emotional side of automation in
advance, so that you don't lose sight of ethics in moments of
technological acceleration. Elon Musk, inventor,
32 ‒ © Ipsos | Trend Vision 2020. Russia
entrepreneur, engineer
Tatler.ruLEVEL OF TECHNOLOGY ADOPTION
IN RUSSIA, IT IS STILL HIGH
6G IS JUST AROUND THE CORNER
Russia is a country with a high level of technology adoption. Most people
use technical innovations to expand their capabilities, but for young people Technical innovations provide
great opportunities
this factor is not so strong - here devices are already a routine. This group
is interested in gadgets more as a way to make life more interesting and fill Technical innovations make life
it with new emotions. more interesting
ALL 16-75
Using technology to make life more organized is also widespread, 70
Single Young
especially in categories of Parents and Empty Nests. pensioners without
It is less among young people, since the need to complete 67 36 65 SIGNAL While Russia is deciding whether to
many tasks at the same time appears in 41 postpone the launch of 5G networks for
74 ALL 16-75 25
the following stages of life. Single the sake of economy, Samsung has
presented the concept of 6G networks,
pensioners Young without Empty the commercial and mass use of which is
49 children nests 34 32
planned from 2028-2030.
71 69 73 37 74
44 45 WHAT IT CHANGES
Middle age People and even cars will enable the
Technology helps me to provision of services such as immersive
70
be more organized Middle augmented reality (XR), high quality
46 age Parents mobile holograms and digital replication.
Thanks to technology people 53
79 71 Source: Ipsos. RusIndex 2020/I.
communicate better Segmentation Life Stage
51
Empty nests Base: Russians 16-75, cities 100K+.
Fieldwork: March 16 – May 6, 2020
33 ‒ © Ipsos | Trend Vision 2020. Russia Parents 77 Agree with statements, %BRAND INNOVATION
IS NOT THE MAIN VALUE FOR CONSUMERS
Despite being grateful to technology, Russians tend to see brands I will always choose innovative brands
as a bulwark of tradition and stability. Technical superiority is not over traditional brands, %
enough to build relationships with consumers. It requires building Agree Disagree
a close emotional connection.
China 50 39
Internal momentum of changes. Acceptance Italy 40 44
If the consumer is ready for new technology, buys new devices or
installs applications themselves, they accept technologization with USA 30 51
joy, because the impulse comes from within.
Russia 28 50
External momentum of changes. Resistance
If the initiative comes from brands, consumers are faced with the France 22 63
fact of imposed changes. Resistance to changes is activated
where you have to rebuild the usual routines.
Japan 20 56
Source: Ipsos Global Trends 2020
Base: 16-74 y.o., N=500-1000 depending on the country
34 ‒ © Ipsos | Trend Vision 2020. RussiaTHE VALUE OF EMPATHY AND TRUST
IS HIGHER THAN EVER
Do you trust the following SERVICE OR CONTROL?
• Trust is at the heart of the emotional to treat you fairly? (%) Yes No
connection between the consumer Delivery companies 69 21
and the brand. The pandemic has Online retailers 64 26
raised lots of emotions and forced Supermarkets 52 42
brands to prove that consumers can
Restaurants (incl. fast food) 51 37
trust them.
Train companies 51 35
• When brands go for new technology Hotels 50 30
and forget about empathy and Online marketplaces 49 31 SIGNAL Amazon drones can monitor the territories they fly
humanity, they risk losing the trust of over and report suspicious situations to the police
Broadband internet providers 49 40 and responsible services. Meanwhile, Dubai is
their customers. Airlines 40 34 already creating drone ports and a dispatching
system for drones
It is interesting that delivery services and Mobile phone operators 39 55
online retail, which combine both Banks 38 54 WHAT IT CHANGES
Drones can observe the behavior of residents
technology and the ability to quickly Automotive companies 34 41 from the air above and give brands new
satisfy the consumer's desire, are on top Hospitals 31 63 information about consumer behavior and
of confidence in organizations. Car dealers 28 45
lifestyle. However, will consumers like it?
Insurance companies 26 57
Source: Ipsos Global Trends 2020
Base: 16-74 y.o. Russia. N=500
35 ‒ © Ipsos | Trend Vision 2020. RussiaTECHNOLOGY SHOULD HELP CONSUMERS
BETTER UNDERSTAND THEMSELVES
WIRELESS EMPATHY
Artificial intelligence already helps the consumer How people see themselves?, %
choose a better product, than a person can do
I put my family and loved ones on
themselves. For example, it can help you choose top of everything 55
cosmetics. I spend a quiet evening at home 34
I seek to maintain good humor
Data profiling helps the customer make a choice and harmony with others 28
The role of technology is not only to streamline and I enjoy being an expert 24
speed up the business processes of organizations, but I am not afraid to be different or
unique 22
also to help consumers understand their own needs and
emotions in order to facilitate the selection and receipt of I enjoys taking care of others 22
SIGNAL Usually, technological solutions for emotion recognition
goods and services. Using the analysis of transactions of require the user to install an app, wear gadgets on
I value traditions 22
a large number of consumers or through external their head, or be near special devices. But back in
observations of their behavior and emotions, I keep away from any obligations 10 2016, MIT introduced EQ Radio, a radio that
technologies can create a profile of a person and give recognizes emotions using Wi-Fi technology.
I am spontaneous and impulsive 7
him recommendations based not only on the data of one
I want to have as much fun as WHAT IT CHANGES
particular consumer, but also on other data similar to possible 7
Emotion recognition technology that doesn't require
his/her profile. I like the adrenaline of risks and users to use special devices and apps can help
adventures 6
brands read and manage consumers' emotions. For
Q: Which attributes describes you best? example, in retail.
Source: Ipsos Adapt! June 2020
Base: 18-65 y.o., Russian cities 1 mln+, N=3000
36 ‒ © Ipsos | Trend Vision 2020. RussiaSTART THINKING ABOUT EMPATHY
RIGHT NOW ZOJIK KNOWS EVERYTHING ABOUT COVID-19
Speed is the main enemy of empathy Virtual assistants and chatbots
In crises, when decision making is quick, you risk are becoming more and more
having no time for empathy.
like people – they talk and learn
It is important to give yourself time to discuss all the to recognize emotions. Many
ethical aspects of implementing new technologies in companies strive to ensure that
order to consider all positive and negative effects of their chatbot not only knows
innovations and to set clear priorities – while the everything, but is perceived by
company is not under pressure from time constraints.
the consumer as a full-fledged SIGNAL In April 2020, the Russian Ministry of Health
launched a virtual assistant – the Zojik bot. Bot
Choice and encouragement interlocutor. For example, the
around the clock answers common questions
Technology adoption is more comfortable where the soulful chatbot of the Fund about coronavirus.
consumer still has the choice to use the new or the old, “Starost v Radost" Vera
there is no strict time frame and there are incentive Vasilyevna. WHAT IT CHANGES
Чаще, чем обычно,
programs. In a situation where there is external The emergence of bots from government
использовали
pressure on the consumer (fines, mandatory passes, services makes them theантисептики
norm for citizens,
для
etc.), it is important for brands to act through positive accelerating the mass adoption
рук of
technology for consumers and creating a
reinforcements.
request for similar solutions from
commercial organizations.
37 ‒ © Ipsos | Trend Vision 2020. RussiaIpsos TrendTRAC
Analyzing signals R REVERSE A ACCELERATE
THE PANDEMIC SIGNAL To support consumers, brands open access to their services and SIGNAL Retail chain Magnit offered to employ KFC employees, which was
give a product. Online cinemas and publishing houses give free closed during the pandemic. Retailers Azbuka Vkusa, Perekrestok.ru,
HAS PROVIDED AN access to movies and books; Yelli gives its soups to support those Ozon, "Dodo Pizza» and Delivery Club teamed up to install a
whose travel was cancelled due to the pandemic; IKEA shares monument in gratitude to the couriers who worked during quarantine.
OPPORTUNITY TO recipes of their branded meatballs.
WHAT IT CHANGES
SHOW HUMANITY WHAT IT CHANGES The pandemic encourages brand collaborations to address important
Promotions operate in the acute phase of the crisis and stop when social issues. The need for such solutions appeared even before the
Technology makes it easier to get the situation is resolved. This improves the brand's reputation and pandemic, because often brands’ social campaigns can be similar in
helps to increase its social media subscribers. message and in visuals.
through crises. In difficult situations, it is
easy to focus on optimizing resources,
T C
reducing the cost of what seems
unnecessary, but which is the "soul" of TRANSFORM CONSOLIDATE
the organization.
Empathy and humanity during crises SIGNAL Despite user complaints, the Social Monitoring app will continue to SIGNAL The pandemic shows real leaders who are ready to help.
be installed on the mobile phones of Muscovites who have Crocs distributes its brand's shoes to doctors for free. P&G
are especially important – people are in sends cosmetics and hygiene products to hospitals. Yandex
contracted COVID-19. Since the end of April 2020, the app does
a state of anxiety and acutely feel the not request identification at nighttime (from 22:00 to 9:00), and organizes the Help is Near You project. The culinary project
need for support and "friendly shoulder". fines issued during the night will be withdrawn. "Dasha's pies" raises money for "suspended dinners" for
What signals reflect the trend for doctors, while simultaneously saving work for its employees
WHAT IT CHANGES and enabling ordinary people to contribute.
empathy in business? Technical solutions to overcome socially significant problems must
simultaneously be ethical. Ethics, empathy, and respect for people's
feelings should be inherent in both the managers responsible for WHAT IT CHANGES
implementation and the technical specialists who create the program The pandemic strengthens the importance of corporate
code. responsibility in business – responsibility not only for their
employees, but also for the well-being of society in general.
38 ‒ © Ipsos | Trend Vision 2020. RussiaOnline –
Offline
39 ‒ © Ipsos | Trend Vision 2020. RussiaTOGETHER, NOT INSTEAD:
ONLINE AS A CONTINUATION OF OFFLINE
During lockdown, people could try to replace real life communication with a virtual
one. The digital environment cannot fully replace live communication and tactile
WE CAN ASSUME THAT FOR
contacts as people remain the "analog” ones. People and businesses are looking for
an optimal balance between the two environments.
SOMEONE THIS WILL BE A
"Remote" work leads to changes in the economy VALUABLE EXPERIENCE THAT
Don't waste time on the road to work, save money and have a flexible schedule –
these are the main advantages for consumers. SHOWED: DO NOT BE AFRAID OF
Online learning. Shock and new features EVERYTHING RELATED TO
The adoption of online learning as a format will go through school children and
students.
ONLINE.
Recreation and entertainment. A sample of new formats
By going online, cultural projects have increased their audience. Users were able SUCH A KIND OF TRAINING THAT
to test new forms of leisure. The request for positivity led to the use of games and
gamification. CHANGED THE BEHAVIOR MODEL
Increasing the value of health
In times of crisis, the value of health increases. The COVID-19 pandemic has
accelerated the introduction of telemedicine and the spread of fitness online.
Retail in search of balance
Retail solves the difficult task of finding a balance between online and offline
formats, complying with official regulations, and simultaneously caring about the Andrew Kamenuki
importance of the consumer experience. Psychotherapist,
General Director of " Clinic of cognitive psychotherapy»
40 ‒ © Ipsos | Trend Vision 2020. RussiaREMOTE WORK –
FORERUNNER OF ECONOMIC CHANGE
Remote work has become a large-scale consequence of the pandemic, allowing
many businesses to survive, and employees - to save income and "try on"
Advantages of
-6%
vs Apr 2020
41%
Continued to work in
remote work, even if they never thought about it.
remote/mixed mode in
remote work June 2020
What remote work changes
Taking into account the numerous advantages of remote work (including the possibility of
reducing the space rented by a business), it can be assumed that some enterprises will
Don’t spend time
for the road 83% Intention to return to
physical workplace, %
continue to work in this mode even after the restrictions are lifted, which could potentially
lead to serious consequences. These include: Save money
(transport, food) 70%
• People will migrate from big cities in order to save money and have a greener life;
business will hire employees from other regions with cheaper labor; 34
• Development of digitalization and systematization of business processes; the
Flexible hours 64% 47
emergence of new video communication services, such as Telemost from Yandex;
• Transforming office concepts: Activity-based Working instead of the fading Open
Space format. With a "mixed" work format, there will be no need to have individual
Wake up later 55% 19
jobs; zoning space for specific offline activities will gain value. Don't want
More time for
chores 42% Don’t care
Want
41 ‒ © Ipsos | Trend Vision 2020. Russia Source: Ipsos Adapt! June 2020
Base: 18-65 y.o., cities 1 mln+, N=3000ONLINE LEARNING
SHOCK AND NEW OPPORTUNITIES
The transition to online learning has become an exam for students,
E-learning, % SEAMLESS LEARNING
teachers and parents due to the speed, the inevitability of what
happened and the need to quickly master Skype, Zoom, Discord and
other tools for conducting virtual lessons, creating tests and quizzes.
77 81
Offline should adapt to online environment
It is necessary to adapt the traditional educational process to the
17
specifics of the Internet: smaller class sizes, pre-recorded lessons, more 17
April 2020 June 2020
ways to engage and retain attention, proctoring (monitoring exams
online). The problem arises of providing each family in Russia with a A course of supplementary education
computer with Internet access. Mandatory education SIGNAL Offline format "New school" launches the project
"Zaochka", which will combine online and offline
Source: Ipsos Adapt! June 2020 education. Чаще, чем обычно,
Schoolchildren and students drive growth Base: 18-65 y.o., cities 1 mln+, N=3000
использовали
Further growth in the number of online learners will continue at the WHAT IT CHANGES антисептики для
expense of schoolchildren and students. As they get older, online Educational projects that were quickly Reputable offline schools areрук
launching hybrid
online/offline formats. The quality of online
learning or a combination of online/offline will become the norm. adapted, or were already working online, education will continue to grow. Basic school
were able to expand both their audience education will be accompanied by less stress for
Among adults, online supplementary education is not seen as a vital and the reach. students and provide more opportunities for self
imperative; for them, the lockdown has resulted in an increase in the development in the direction of interest.
value of live meetings and events, including live learning.
42 ‒ © Ipsos | Trend Vision 2020. RussiaLEISURE AND ENTERTAINMENT
TRY OUT NEW ONLINE FORMATS
The massive transfer of offline entertainment to online helped keep Watching video content at home, % VR IN YOUR HEAD
people at home and relieve them of the burden of having to spend a
69 66
long time in the same confined space. Unlike the scary news,
entertainment is positive, the value of which will continue after the
pandemic.
April June
It fades away
After the first wave of interest in virtual communication, interest in
Zoom parties and FaceTime photo shoots began to decline. Video communication
on personal matters, %
SIGNAL An immersive show is a format where viewers
Culture engages the masses sit with their eyes closed, imagining a story
Чаще, чем обычно,
Moving online at lockdown has allowed many cultural projects to In general 45 39 development in their minds. The format
использовали
significantly expand their audience and offer new formats, for example, 3+ people 29 25 moved from offline to online during self-
антисептики для
behind-the-scenes tours. isolation.
April June рук
WHAT IT CHANGES
TikTok. A fresh look at the classics To get a strong emotional impression, a
TikTok, a short video platform aimed at young audiences, during Watching online performances, person just needs to close his/her eyes. No
lockdown was first used by the Ministry of Culture to host online such a online exhibitions, % need for virtual helmets, halls or quest
classic format as Museum Night. The Ministry of Education, Rosturizm 15 13 rooms. Only Zoom, blindfold, moderator and
viewer imagination.
continue to use TikTok to communicate with young audiences.
Meanwhile, Facebook announced the launch of a TikTok rival. April June
Source: Ipsos Adapt! June 2020
Base: 18-65 y.o., cities 1 mln+, N=3000
43 ‒ © Ipsos | Trend Vision 2020. RussiaGAMIFICATION
ESCAPE FROM REALITY TO THE GAME
HSE AND MIT COPIED IN MINECRAFT
The pandemic has accelerated the spread of games and Computer games
increased demand for the gamification of non-game tasks.
In an unstable world, people are looking for a way to 53% of Russians surveyed play games online
or in-app. Since 2016, e-sports has been
escape reality to where they have fun and where the officially recognized in Russia and has
development of events can be controlled. already earned the popularity of fans.
Brands and consumers in the game 36% 40%
• Participation of people in promotions is growing exponentially –
this is not only a way to save money, it is a game of “buying a Played online Played in apps
good product at a low price”, “winning” from the seller Source: Ipsos RusIndex 2020/I.
SIGNAL In the midst of lockdown, the Higher School of
Russians 16-75, cities 100K+ Economics created a virtual copy of its main
• Brands actively use online games to engage and educate Fieldwork: March 16 – May 6 2020 building in Minecraft. At the same time, a copy
consumers on self-isolation: The Perekrestok supermarkets of the famous Massachusetts Institute
Чаще, чем of обычно,
teaches how to buy wisely, S7 aircompany+Tinkoff bank Technology (MIT) - Minecraft Institute of
использовали
teaches to wash hands. Games are serious Technology appeared in Minecraft
антисептики для
рук
• Brands diversified the everyday life of consumers with flash • In the NTI 2.0 initiative, which is working on WHAT IT CHANGES
mobs and hashtag challenges, in which people did what they a foresight of the future of Russia until Following retail, education is becoming
were deprived of offline – makeup, outfits, fitness. Examples: 2035, games are highlighted as a separate omnichannel, claiming the seamless transition
#FreelanceFashionWeek from MTS and #plankaspomadoi from area of GameNet. from online to offline. At the same time, there is
a growing demand for gamification and
Maybelline. • The international association Games for edutainment, without which online education is
• Perhaps the most striking game case of isolation – everyone Change promotes gaming tools to solve almost unviable.
could control real inhabitants of the Faroe Islands, like in a significant social problems.
computer game.
44 ‒ © Ipsos | Trend Vision 2020. RussiaHEALTHCARE –
ONLINE EXPANDS THE POSSIBILITIES OF OFFLINE
Each crisis increases the value of health – a person SMART HEALTHCARE SPEAKER
can cope with economic problems or take advantage
of new opportunities only if they are healthy. The rise of telemedicine
48%
The pandemic has accelerated the spread
of telemedicine. Kaluga Region became
Fitness
the first in Russia where telemedicine was
Online fitness has supported people with limited included into the compulsory medical
exercise opportunities in lockdown. But even after the did sports at home insurance system. You can now consult a
restrictions are lifted, offline fitness clubs keep online in June 2020
doctor remotely for free.
programs and are looking for ways to monetize them.
SIGNAL American retailer Walmart has launched sales
During the pandemic, the demand for communication with Contacting a doctor remotely, % of HandsFree Health WellBe, a smart healthy
consumers through sports has grown even more – both by lifestyle speaker with voice control. Features
fitness clubs and by companies from other industries. The By phone
include reminders for medication and doctor's
trend will continue. appointments, built-in health tracker,
Via web sites and special apps
prevention information, and more.
• #FitnessProtivVirusa is a joint online training project with
the stars of the World Class Club, Okko, more.tv, 10 15 14
8
Sberbank and the Moscow Sports Department. WHAT IT CHANGES
Smart speakers learn to help keep
• Examples of the use of fitness by brands from other April June consumers healthy. The next step is
industries: workout videos from Wildberries, financial integration with telemedicine systems.
Source: Ipsos Adapt! June 2020
yoga from Raiffeisenbank Base: 18-65 y.o., cities 1 mln+, N=3000
45 ‒ © Ipsos | Trend Vision 2020. RussiaRETAIL
LOOKING FOR A BALANCE
The pandemic has presented retailers with the daunting task of finding the Shopping for everyday goods 3D ONLINE STORES IN CHINA
optimal mix of offline and online formats, while meeting official distance and during self-isolation, %
safety requirements, while also keeping in mind the importance of customer
Bought online
experience. 91 94
Bought offline
Search for matching formats 33
26
X5 Retail Group's emergence as a leader in the e-grocery segment
illustrates the role of brand trust when the consumer opted for online April June
versions of traditional players over purely online formats. Business models Source: Ipsos Adapt! June 2020
57%
Base: 18-65 y.o.,
are being adapted, for example, Starbucks announced the pre-ordering via cities 1 mln+, N=3000
an app. However, remember that before the pandemic, Amazon and
Lamoda opened bricks and mortar stores. The search for balance
continues.
+9% SIGNAL Chinese online store Tmall is testing 3D
vs April 2020 Paid in cash counterparts of offline stores.
Sensitivity to customer experience increases in June 2020
Requirements to wear masks and gloves, and to keep distance worsen the WHAT IT CHANGES
customer experience in offline retail. Online also does not yet compensate Cash is still in use Now, in online retail, a customer cannot
wander around the store and
for the experience people were getting offline before the pandemic. For Despite the fact that cash is considered the spontaneously take “just something new
example, this concerns the purchase of premium goods, where a high price dirtiest carrier of a huge number of bacteria, its for the soul” from the shelf. The 3D
has always determined a high level of customer care. One way to use has not decreased during self-isolation, but simulator solves this problem by bringing
compensate for the lack of customer care online can be a positive delivery has increased, since the consumer is not always the virtual shopping experience closer to
experience. Overall, retailers need to pay even more attention to the ready to make a prepayment online, and not all the real one.
customer experience. couriers have terminals for paying with a card.
46 ‒ © Ipsos | Trend Vision 2020. RussiaIpsos TrendTRAC
Analyzing signals R REVERSE A ACCELERATE
LIFESAVING SIGNAL Contactless delivery by couriers SIGNAL Right before lockdown Yandex.Taxi launched the delivery service,
which allowed customers to quickly send goods to each other – a
DELIVERY WHAT IT CHANGES
Contactless delivery by couriers as it existed during lockdown is
timely solution that helped customers, taxi drivers and retailers
overcome the coronavirus.
also likely to be a thing of the past. The service was not tuned
In what the media termed the "sofa properly, and if you can move freely, the function of contactless WHAT IT CHANGES
receipt of goods is performed by postamats, as well as vending Even before lockdown, delivery within a day was a good one. In
revolution“, there was almost a record machines in residential buildings launched in test mode by retailers quarantine, retail showed "supersonic speeds" – products appeared
number of changes in the ways to Azbuka Vkusa and Vkusvill. at the customer’s residence 15-20 minutes after they ordered. The
make purchases during the lockdown. customer would like to keep this speed of delivery.
Consumers definitely like the delivery
T TRANSFORM C
not just on the day, but at the hour of
the order. CONSOLIDATE
Along with the delivery couriers,
whose value increased, taxi drivers SIGNAL Delivery Club terminated the contract with a partner who did not SIGNAL Yandex.Lavka launched delivery of goods to «dachas» (summer
pay the couriers ' wages and created the threat of a strike. houses in suburbs) in the vicinity of Moscow and St. Petersburg.
and consultants of empty stores After the successful launch of delivery to dachas in the Moscow
functioned as delivery couriers too. WHAT IT CHANGES region, the eCommerce platform SberMarket plans to launch
The high demand for delivery and the complexity of managing a within the summer a similar service for all 1mln+ cities.
large staff of couriers create prerequisites for replacing couriers
with ground and air robots. In July 2020, Yandex tested an WHAT IT CHANGES
unmanned delivery robot Yandex.Rover. Dodo pizza has been Expanding the delivery area to include suburbs. With the departure
working on the use of contactless air delivery since 2014. of the city population to the countryside due to remote work or the
According to forecasts, in 10 years, the turnover of the contactless closure of educational institutions for quarantine, the issue of long-
air delivery market will exceed the turnover of passenger air distance delivery became acute. Before lockdown, the delivery
transportation. dachas was performed by a Unkonos, other e-retail players
followed it pushed by the coronavirus pandemic.
47 ‒ © Ipsos | Trend Vision 2020. RussiaYou can also read
