UK/India co-operation on IPCC and in the international sphere - Jim Skea, IPCC WG III Co-chair and Professor of Sustainable Energy, Imperial ...
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UK/India co-operation on IPCC
and in the international sphere
Jim Skea, IPCC WG III Co-chair and
Professor of Sustainable Energy, Imperial College London
Climate Parliament: Delegation of Indian MPs to the UK
26 October 2016
India and UK joined at the hip: IPCC and climate change mitigation
IPCC
Creation Today
1988: UN General Assembly endorsed Oct. 2015: IPCC elected new Bureau in
the action by UNEP and WMO in jointly charge of the Sixth Assessment cycle,
establishing the IPCC April 2016: first session since election
Science/Policy Interface
IPCC – jointly established by WMO and UNEP, action endorsed by the UN General Assembly
Intergovernmental Panel: 195 member States Hundreds of scientists and experts from around the
appointing National Focal Points world are involved in the preparation of IPCC reports
Authors
Working Group (WG) I WGIII
Plenary The Physical Mitigation of
Science Basis Climate Change
Bureaux Expert Review
WGII
Task Force on Reviewers Editors
Climate Change
Impacts, National
Adaptation & Greenhouse
Vulnerabilities Gas Inventories
The role of the IPCC is … “… to assess on a comprehensive, objective, open and transparent basis the scientific, technical and socio-economic information relevant to understanding the scientific basis of risk of human-induced climate change, its potential impacts and options for adaptation and mitigation.” “IPCC reports should be neutral with respect to policy, although they may need to deal objectively with scientific, technical and socio-economic factors relevant to the application of particular policies.” Principles Governing IPCC Work, paragraph 2 Source: http://www.ipcc.ch/pdf/ipcc-principles/ipcc-principles.pdf
Achievements: 2013/2014 Fifth Assessment Report
Key messages
Human influence on the climate system is clear
The more we disrupt our climate, the more we risk severe, pervasive and irreversible impacts
We have the means to limit climate change and build a more prosperous, sustainable future
How the IPCC produces its reports
Key message from the WG III Fifth Assessment Report: Temperature stablization requires a substantial shift from business-as-usual
The key aims of the Paris Agreement – Article 2
This Agreement…. aims to strengthen the global response to the
threat of climate change ...by:
a) Holding the increase in the global average temperature to well
below 2 °C above pre-industrial levels and to pursue efforts to
limit the temperature increase to 1.5 °C above pre-industrial
levels, recognizing that this would significantly reduce the risks
and impacts of climate change;
b) Increasing the ability to adapt to the adverse impacts of climate
change and foster climate resilience and low greenhouse gas
emissions development, in a manner that does not threaten
food production;
c) Making finance flows consistent with a pathway towards low
greenhouse gas emissions and climate-resilient development
The challenge of peaking and “net zero”:
Article 4 of the Paris Agreement
In order to achieve the long-term temperature goal set out in
Article 2, Parties aim to reach global peaking of greenhouse gas
emissions as soon as possible, recognizing that peaking will take
longer for developing country Parties, and to undertake rapid
reductions thereafter in accordance with best available science, so
as to achieve a balance between anthropogenic emissions by
sources and removals by sinks of greenhouse gases in the second
half of this century, on the basis of equity, and in the context of
sustainable development and efforts to eradicate poverty.Nationally determined contributions (NDCs):
the gap between aspirations and offers
Source: UNFCCCTaking stock of the NDCs • Facilitative dialogue in 2018 • Global stocktake every 5 years from 2023 onwards – are we on track for the long-term aims? • NDCs should ratchet upwards in ambition, every successive NDC should be more ambitious than the previous • A role for IPCC - but what that is not yet clear
Decarbonising the global energy system Source: Rogelji et al, 2015
The three new IPCC products relevant to WG III • Special report on “global warming of 1.5 C” invited by UNFCCC (September 2018) “Special Report on the impacts of global warming of 1.5°C above pre-industrial levels and related global greenhouse gas emission pathways, in the context of strengthening the global response to the threat of climate change, sustainable development, and efforts to eradicate poverty” • Special report on climate change, desertification, land degradation, sustainable land management, food security and greenhouse gas fluxes in terrestrial ecosystems (September 2019) • Sixth Assessment report (July 2021)
Approved Outline of the Special Report
on Global Warming of 1.5°C
Chapter 1: Framing and Context
Chapter 2: Mitigation pathways compatible with 1.5°C in the context of
sustainable development
Chapter 3: Impacts of 1.5°C global warming on natural and human
systems
Chapter 4: Strengthening and implementing the global response to the
threat of climate change
Chapter 5: Sustainable development, poverty eradication, and
reducing inequalitiesWG III Fifth Assessment Report:
Chapter Structure
1. Introductory Chapter
2. Integrated Risk and Uncertainty Assessment of Climate Change
Response Policies
3. Social, Economic and Ethical Concepts and Methods
4. Sustainable Development and Equity
5. Drivers, Trends and Mitigation
6. Assessing Transformation Pathways
7. Energy Systems
8. Transport
9. Buildings
10. Industry
11. Agriculture, Forestry and Other Land Use (AFOLU)
12. Human Settlements, Infrastructure and Spatial Planning
13. International Co-operation: Agreements and Instruments
14. Regional Development and Cooperation
15. National and Sub-national Policies and Institutions
16. Cross-cutting Investment and Finance IssuesTHANK YOU FOR YOUR ATTENTION!
For more information:
Website: http://ipcc.ch/
IPCC Secretariat: ipcc-sec@wmo.int
IPCC Press Office: ipcc-media@wmo.int
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