UK Real Estate Overview - Q2 2021 Contact us - BMO Global Asset Management
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For Professional Clients and/or Qualified Investors only
UK Real Estate
Overview
Q2 2021
Contact us UK Economy
UK, London – Head Office • The economic recovery is underway as the last restrictions were lifted on 19 July
2021, providing a boost to the economy with GDP growth of 7.3% forecast for 2021
BMO Real Estate Partners
and pre-pandemic levels of activity returning towards the end of the year.
7 Seymour Street
London • Consumer-facing services continued to grow with demand shifting from food stores
W1H 7JW to restaurants and pubs as hospitality restrictions eased. Consumers have saved over
the past year, leaving them in in a strong position to support the recovery by taking
020 7499 2244
on new credit and spending some of their excess savings.
Research • Manufacturing stalled due to supply issues of key components and higher NHS test
and trace activity impacting supply chains, which will take longer to resolve.
Joanna Tano
• Headwinds remain, and the rising number of COVID cases poses a downside risk to
jtano@bmorep.com
the outlook, and even though the link between hospitalisations and case numbers is
weaker due to the vaccination programme, consumer confidence could be damaged
Business Development by rising numbers which may slow the return of leisure spend.
Jamie Kellett • The labour market continues to improve, with latest employment figures rising for
the sixth consecutive month in May 2021. The unemployment rate edged down to
jkellett@bmorep.com
4.8% in the three months to May and job vacancies are back at pre-pandemic levels,
with concerns of labour shortages in some sectors now emerging.
Telephone calls may be recorded.
Key Risks
Our review and outlook is a marketing communication providing an overview
of the recent economic and property market environment. It should not be
considered as advice or a recommendation to buy, sell or hold investments. Nor
is it investment research and has not been prepared in accordance with legal
requirements designed to promote the independence of investment research and
is not subject to any prohibition on dealing ahead of its dissemination. As with all
investments, capital is at risk.
The value of investments and income derived from them can go down as well as
up as a result of market or currency movements and investors may not get back
the original amount invested.
The value of directly held property reflects the opinion of valuers and is reviewed
periodically. These assets can also be illiquid and significant or persistent
redemptions may require the manager to sell properties at a lower market value
adversely affecting the value of your investment.
ContinuedBMO Real Estate Partners Page 2
• Most government support schemes are in place until the GDP growth & unemployment rate (%)
autumn, a couple of months beyond the end of restrictions, 10
giving the economy time to adjust before support is 8
withdrawn. 6
4
• Inflation rose to 2.4% in June as sectors previously closed 2
reopened and have started to raise prices. The expectation 0
is for these effects to only have a temporary impact on -2
-4
inflation and it will gradually return towards the Bank of -6
England’s 2% medium run inflation target. The expectation -8
is for the BoE to look through the temporary increase in -10
2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021 2022 2023 2024 2025
inflation, keeping short-term interest rates on hold. (f) (f) (f) (f) (f)
Unemployment Rate (%) GDP % change y/y
Source: Oxford Economics as at 14-Jul-21
Total returns performance strongest in six years
• The all-property total return improved dramatically in the
three months to June 2021 posting 3.4%. This is the strongest Three month all-property total returns to June 2021 (%)
return performance for six years, since June 2015. 6
• The 2.3% yield impact, which is the highest quarter-on- 5
quarter performance since September 2014 is supported by 4
positive investor sentiment. Meanwhile, rental value growth 3
at the all-property level, appears to have turned a corner and 2
is positive at 0.2%, the first time in positive territory since 1
late 2018. 0
• The industrial sector was the driving force behind the -1
quarter’s performance with a total return of 7.5%, the second -2
highest quarterly return ever recorded for the sector, with -3
2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021
the last three quarters seeing two of the best quarterly
performances on record. Source: MSCI UK Quarterly Property Digest as at Jun-21
• There are no marked differences between standard industrial
and distribution, although the latter continues to outperform
standard industrial. There are also no meaningful regional Unemployment Rate (%)
disparities with all areas of the UK showing improvements Total returns 3 & 12 months to June 2021 (%)
in Q2 over the previous quarter, with the North East posting 30
the strongest total return of 9.2%, followed by Yorkshire & 25
Humberside (8.4%). 20
15
• Retail posted a positive 1.7% quarterly total return, the first 10
5
positive performance of the sector for three years, driven by 0
retail warehouses with a total return of 3.7% for the quarter. -5
Shops and shopping centres are still both negative but there -10
-15
are more meaningful signs of stabilisation. -20
-25
• Looking forward, the all-property total return moves out of
Office – City
All-Property
Standard Retail
– South East
Retail Warehouse
Office – West End
& Mid Town
Office – Rest of
South East
Office – Rest of
UK
Industrial – South
East
Industrial – Rest
Alternatives
Shopping Centre
of UK
Standard Retail
– Rest of UK
the negative territory of 2020, and looks to remain relatively
stable over five years to 2025. The high is expected to come
in 2022 with a 7.8% all-property total return, slowing to 4.5%
in 2024. There is however a masked divergence between 3 months 12 months
sectors with industrial and supermarkets expected to be the
best performing over five years to 2025. Source: MSCI UK Quarterly Property Digest as at Jun-21
ContinuedBMO Real Estate Partners Page 3
Investment Market
• Second quarter 2021 investment volumes reached £11.7 Investment activity £m
bn demonstrating the continued resilience of the UK
20000
commercial property market to the pandemic. While this
is around a fifth under the five-year quarterly average, it is
15000
over double the £4.9 bn recorded during the first national
lockdown in Q2 2020.
10000
• There continues to be a clear preference for certain
sectors, those that are underpinned by their ability to 5000
offer long-term, defensive income plays such as industrial,
supermarkets and residential. 0
2020 Q1 2020 Q2 2020 Q3 2020 Q4 2021 Q1 2021 Q2 Long-Run
Average
• Industrial continues to be the most sought after sector Domestic Overseas
with £3.3 bn exchanging hands in Q2, bringing the half
Source: Property Data as at Jul-21
year volume to £6.9 bn – the strongest half year volume on
record, re-enforcing the seemingly unabating appetite for
the sector despite the generally tighter pricing, especially
for core. Some investors are looking to assets with a
level of risk, be that location or leasing risk or a need for
improvement/ refurbishment/ future proofing of stock in
order to drive higher returns.
Investment activity by sector (£m)
• Not all retail has been affected evenly by the pandemic
80000
and divergence within the sector continues. Supermarkets
are most sought after and the defensive nature of retail
70000
parks makes them attractive too, especially those well-let
and with potential alternative use angles. Of note, while 60000
investor appetite is limited for shopping centres, some
recent interest has been driven by repricing rather than the 50000
repurposing of late.
40000
• Cross-border investors, having learnt to navigate the
pandemic related restrictions accounted for a 57% share 30000
of second quarter deals, up from the 30% seen in the
equivalent quarter in 2020 when lockdowns were first 20000
introduced in earnest and strict travel bans were in place.
10000
• Looking forward, the all property yield will compress by
around 20 – 25 bps this year driven by supermarkets and 0
the industrial sectors, with mild compression expected 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 H1 2021
or offices, but at the core end, while leisure, hospitality, Alt/Mixed
Office Industrial Retail Leisure
shopping centres and shops are struggling and further
outward movement in yields is widely expected. Source: Property Data as at Jul-21
ContinuedBMO Real Estate Partners Page 4
Retail
• The retail market turned a corner in the second quarter Retail total returns by selected segments annual to June
posting a 1.7% total return, and turning positive for the first 2021 (%)
time since mid-2018. The annual total return is negative
20
at -2.6% but with signs of stabilisation emerging, and a
significantly better performance than the -12.7% in the year 10
to June 2020. 0
• The headline figure masks not only a divergence within -10
the sector, but a geographical one as well. Across the UK
-20
retail appears to be improving, albeit from a low base, with
the Eastern region posting a quarterly total return of 2.9% -30 Shopping Central Dept/ Standard Retail Standard All Supermarkets
supported by positive income return and capital growth. Centres London Variety Retail – Warehousing Retail Property
Shops Stores Rest of UK South East
• London is still struggling, and while the City is slowly Capital Growth Income Return Total Return
improving, although still with a negative quarterly total
return of -0.7%, the trend in the West End reversed in Q2, Source: MSCI UK Quarterly Property Digest Jun-21
after posting a positive first quarter total return.
• Retail warehouses are bouncing back, attractive to occupiers
Retail investment activity (£m)
and investors and was the only retail segment to outperform
the all-property total return, while supermarkets are the
7000
fourth best performer against all asset segments.
• Investment levels in Q2 were on par with those of Q1 with 6000
£1.7 billion of retail assets trading. Supermarkets and retail
5000
warehouses are favoured given their ability to offer secure,
long income. Combined they accounted for 31% of second 4000
quarter activity at £236 mn and £805 mn respectively.
3000
• Repurposing will continue to be a key driver of investor
demand, especially for shopping centres, but there has
2000
been a rise in opportunistic purchases, although they
remain limited at the moment. For now, local authorities, 1000
developers and private investors will be where the bulk of
capital comes from. 0
2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021
• The high street universe is likely to shrink with prime-
Shopping Centre Retail Warehouse Supermarket Long-term Average
pitches seeing rising demand as it becomes increasingly from 2010
Unit Shop Other Retail
difficult for retailers to trade at historic margins from off-
prime, with a widening pricing gap between the two. Source: Property Data as at Jul-21
ContinuedBMO Real Estate Partners Page 5
Retail occupier market
• Consumer confidence improved in line with the continued Consumer spend (£m) and 5 year annualised growth (%)
vaccine rollout, heightened household savings and pent-
350000
up demand, as retail and leisure reopened, supporting 14.0%
significant improvements in footfall. But, the forced 300000 12.0%
closures of shops during lockdowns put pressure on 10.0%
revenues and will continue to impact retailer performance 250000
8.0%
even as restrictions are lifted. 200000 6.0%
• Physical footprints come under great scrutiny as pressure 4.0%
150000
mounts on margins, with some retailers restructuring their
2.0%
supply chains to facilitate structural changes. Those who 100000
continue to embrace change and new trends, and who 0.0%
50000
have re-worked their real estate networks, will be in a -2.0%
stronger position as demand returns to physical retail. 0 -4.0%
footwear
Recreation
Restaurants
Clothing &
Education
Communication goods
Health goods
Food
& hotels
Utilities
Other goods &
services
Transport &
vehicle purchases
Household furnishings
& equipment
Alcohol &
tobacco
and services
• Vacancy rates have inevitably risen, but ongoing
governmental support packages such as extension of the
eviction moratorium to March 2022 will help to protect
struggling operators and limit significant jumps as CVAs
slow.
2019 2022 5 yr CAGR 2020-2025 (rha)
• The offline to online commerce shift will continue,
highlighting the importance of an omni-channel approach. Source: Oxford Economics as at 07-Jul-21
In June online sales reached 26% of total UK retail sales,
and while dipping from the 36% peak in January 2021, the
long-term trend is for rising online spend. However, growth
Channel Growth 2020-2025
in click & collect are forecast to outpace online over the
166%
next five years according to Global Data. 170
150
• Retail parks are proving popular, with vacancy sub 6%, and 130
will continue to outperform given the flexibility of format
goods &
services
110
Other
and outdoor setting with the convenience of parking. In % 90
71%
62%
some instances they also offer underlying alternative use 70
49% 43%
50 37%
angles. 25%
37% 32% 29%
30 12% 10%
8% 7% 6%
4%
• Rents remain under pressure, but the pace of decline is 10
beginning to ease and there are now signs of stabilisation -10 -7% -9%
in some stronger locations where, albeit at much reduced
Health & Beauty
Food & Grocery
Clothing &
Furniture
Homeware
Footwear
DIY & Gardening
Entertainment
Books
Electricals
rental levels. Turnover rents are also becoming more
commonplace.
Online Click & Collect
Source: Global Data as at Jun-21
ContinuedBMO Real Estate Partners Page 6
Offices
• There was much better news coming out of the office sector Offices total returns by selected segments annual to June
which delivered a 1.4% return in the three months to June, 2021 (%)
building on the 0.5% total return from the first quarter. For
8
the year, UK offices delivered a 1.0% total return, which will
6
gradually lead to improving returns over the next five years 4
as rental activity picks-up, albeit modestly, coupled with 2
some value appreciation. 0
-2
• As the office sector works through the structural change that -4
was accelerated by the health crisis, investor confidence will -6
be boosted by the phased, albeit slow, return to working -8 West End South Outer All Office Inner Rest of City All
practices as businesses start venturing back to the office. East London London UK Property
The all-office total return for this year is expected to be
in the region of 2.5%. The Rest of the UK will outperform Capital Growth Income Return Total Return
(3.0%), compared to the 2.8% increase in total returns for Source: MSCI UK Quarterly Property Digest Jun-21
the South East, compared to London at 2.5%.
• The office sector saw a turn around in appetite in Q2. After
a slow start to the year trading volumes reached £4.4 bn in
the second quarter, bringing the half year total to £7.4 bn Office investment activity (£m)
with both London and key cities outside the capital seeing a
14000
pick-up.
12000
• Boosted by some large transactions, volumes in London
reached £2.1 bn in Q2 with a spread of buyers ranging from 10000
overseas investors from North America (35%) and European
(25%), to domestic purchasers (25%) indicating that 8000
confidence is improving despite the slow start to the year. 6000
• With Brexit headwinds easing and the eye of the pandemic
4000
hopefully in the past, buyers are sensing a mismatch in
pricing between London and other European capital cities 2000
reflected in a 25 bps compression in Q2 to 3.25% in the City
and 3.75% in the West End – the first inward movement 0
2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021
since 2016.
Central London Rest of UK Long-term Average from 2010
• Across the key regional, prime yields have been relatively
stable with a clear focus on core assets offering long Source: Property Data as at Jul-21
income. Assets with an element of leasing risk will be of
interest, but to a smaller pool of capital. Institutional capital
has been somewhat muted, with overseas investors and UK
property companies the most active.
ContinuedBMO Real Estate Partners Page 7
Office occupier market
• Uncertainty remains around how much office space will notable for their activity whilst professional and financial
be needed in the future, but the conclusion that offices services were more muted.
are here to stay has been reached, with a focus on quality,
• Central areas drew much of the demand and will continue to
collaboration space and location all important and driving
do so, which leaves a question mark around the longevity of
corporate decision making.
some, in particular, older out-of-town stock.
• While overall take-up figures are lower, there has been
• The regional markets are beginning to see the benefit of the
a notable flight-to-quality emerge with occupier demand
commitment of the public sector with the Treasury moving
focused on buildings which promote wellness and better
jobs to Darlington and the Home Office to Stoke-on-Trent,
support modern, collaborative layouts. This comes at the
while the GPA is in late-phase negotiations in Birmingham.
detriment of older stock, causing rental growth on prime
offices to outpace the rest of the market.
• Flexibility is key and smaller floorplates are seeing more
activity, where given lingering uncertainty occupier,
decision making can be more agile. Larger acquisitions
tend to be deferred and take-up here tends to be driven by Key UK office markets – development pipeline
lease events.
14 16
• Availability in Central London is still rising (to 26 mn
0.15 sq.ft
12 14
in Q2) but the pace is slowing with vacancy now at 9.3%,
and with a constrained pipeline, of which just over 50% 10
12
of space either pre-let or under offer, will help to limit 10
million sq ft
0.12 8
significant rises.
8 %
• Take-up rose for the second consecutive quarter with 1.6 6
6
mn sq.ft let in Q2. Leasing activity will gain momentum
4
with 2.7 mn sq.ft of space under offer – the highest
0.09since 4
the onset of the pandemic in March 2020, with London’s 2 2
City and West End accounting for circa 80% of under offers
0 0
in the capital.
2006
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0.06
• Key regional cities saw Q2 2021 leasing activity reach
Pre-lets Speculative 20 yr average Vacancy Rate (rha)
1.56 million sq.ft, 26% down on the ten-year average.
Healthcare, public sector, TMT and creative sectors are Source: Colliers
ContinuedBMO Real Estate Partners Page 8
Industrial
• The all-industrial total return over the quarter was 7.5%, Industrial total returns by selected segments annual to
building on the performance seen in Q1 of 5.1%, and is the June 2021 (%)
only sector to outperform the all-property quarterly return
30
of 3.4%. The annual total return was a staggering 22.6% and
while both distribution warehousing and standard industrial 25
performed well, distribution leads the way with unrelenting 20
demand for the sector. 15
• Over the year to June 2021 London was the strongest 10
performer, posting a return of 25.5%, while over the quarter 5
the North West was the best performing region (9.2%).
0
• Quarter two saw £3.3 bn transact, bringing the H1 2021
Property
Yorks + Humber
Scotland
Eastern
Wales
South West
North East
South East
North West
London
All
West Midlands
East Midlands
investment volume to £6.9 bn, with activity supported by
strong occupier market dynamics. The all-industrial total
return for 2021 will be in the region of 15% driven on by
Capital Growth Income Return Total Return
the ongoing strength of rental growth and firming of yields,
before slowing to a more sustainable rate 2022. Source: MSCI UK Quarterly Property Digest Jun-21
• Investors are eager to increase their allocation to industrial
with returns forecast to outpace those of other sectors.
With this, a broadening of the investor base is anticipated,
Industrial investment activity (£m)
including new capital sources, attracted by the favourable
structural tailwinds such as the growth in online retail and 6000
robust occupier market.
5000
• Traditional office and retail investors are increasingly
diversifying their portfolios, diverting capital to the wider
4000
industrial sector. International capital is as active as
domestic, accounting for just over half of H1 2021 spend.
Unsurprisingly foreign investors are more active in 2021 than 3000
2020 when lockdown was more restrictive. Buyers from the
US are in acquisition mode, but there has been a notable 2000
rise in activity from Middle Eastern investors.
1000
• As investors look to deploy capital and build scale quickly
portfolios have become more important accounting for a
0
third of the H1 2021 volume. Strong competition and the 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021
weight of money targeting the sector has seen prime yields
compress to around 4.00%, a 25bps shift from 12 months Distribution Multi Let Other Industrial Long-term Average
previously. Competition for secondary assets has led to Warehouse from 2010
yields narrowing over the last year and are now circa 4.50%. Source: Property Data as at Jul-21
ContinuedBMO Real Estate Partners Page 9
Industrial occupier market
• H1 2021 saw a record breaking 30.8 million sq.ft of take-up UK key industrial regions – development pipeline
(50,000 sq.ft+), double that of H1 2020 with retailers and
distribution firms dominating leasing activity as they boost 20 12
0.12 their online and home delivery capabilities.
10
• Activity will continue as the remainder of 2021 unfolds 15
0.10
driven by the continued realignment and structural changes 8
million sq ft
in supply chains as online platforms play an even bigger role
in the retail market going forward. 10 6 %
0.08
• Robust demand continues to erode availability, which 4
is already low, especially high quality space. There is 5
approximately 43 million sq.ft of available space, much 2
0.06
of which under offer or does not meet current occupier
requirements in terms of locations or specification 0 0
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2011
0.04 • The lack of availability is becoming an increasing challenge
for occupiers, especially those looking for big box units in Pre-lets Speculative 20 yr average Vacancy Rate (rha)
excess of 350,000 sq.ft. Others are finding that existing Source: Property Market Analysis, Q2 2021 release
standing stock does not meet their requirements and
compromises need to be made either in terms of location or
specification or delay expansion/relocation plans until more
stock completes or secure space via pre-let or build-to-suit.
H1 2021 take-up by occupier type (%) (units over 50,000 sq.ft)
• The construction pipeline holds approximately nine million
sq.ft of speculative space, and underpinned by robust
demand, will be absorbed with ease and not expected to
negatively impact the vacancy rate which currently sub
4.4%.
• The market dynamics of low supply and strong demand is
seeing more development, but the shortages of construction
materials and extended delivery times is pushing up costs
which is delaying some schemes as profit margins are
squeezed.
• The total amount of space under construction, scheduled to
complete this year has dropped over the past few months
as expected completion dates are pushed forward into 2022, Distribution 37%
construction starts postponed or schemes are put on hold. Manufacturing 19%
Retailing 39%
Other 5%
Source: Knight Frank as at H1 2021
ContinuedBMO Real Estate Partners Page 10
Alternatives
• Alternatives delivered a quarterly total return of 1.8% to Alternatives total returns by selected segments annual to June
June, underperforming the market where the all-property 2021 (%)
quarterly total return was 3.4%, but outperforming retail 10
and offices. Over the year a significant improvement in
8
performance has been seen as lockdowns are lifted and
6
previously closed sectors, in particular leisure and hospitality
reopened – the total return in the year to June was 2.6%. 4
2
• There is a distinct polarisation in the subsectors constituting
0
Alternatives, with healthcare the strongest subsector on the
quarter and the year with the strength of leasing driving -2
on performance. Leisure meanwhile delivered a negative -4 All Property Leisure Residential Healthcare Hotel
total return of -1.2% over 12 months to June 2021, but has
recorded two consecutive quarters of positive total returns, One year Three years Five years
which to June 2021 was 1.9%. Source: MSCI UK Quarterly Property Digest Jun-21
• Residential is also seeing gains with an improved quarterly
performance of 1.9% and is a top performer over the
Alternatives investment activity (£m)
forecast period to 2025 as it continues to produce steady
and high returns averaging 4.6% between 2021-2025. 10,000
• Hotels showed a marked improvement, with traditional
leisure markets expected to bounce back sooner than
traditional business locations as confidence returns, boosted 8,000
by rising levels of domestic travel. The recovery may be too
late for some hotels given the length of forced closures and Entertainmen
the lack of cash reserves will see some quality distressed 6,000
assets come to market but limited in number and so bidding Food & Grocer
could be competitive
4,000
• £2.7 bn worth of alternative assets traded in Q2, bringing Book
the half year total to £6.4 bn. Activity was boosted by
residential, student housing and hotel deals concluding,
2,000
which combined accounted for 80% of Q2 deals under the
alternative umbrella.
• Select areas of Alternatives able to offer resilient long- 0
term cash flows, supported by underlying robust demand 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021
fundamentals, are seeing non specialist investors taking Residential Student Other Alternative Hotel
a more active interest. More JVs and M&A activity is also
Other Leisure Long-Term Average from 2010
expected as players look at all routes to access stock and
take advantage of the growth in the sector. Source: Property Data as at Jul-21
ContinuedBMO Real Estate Partners Page 11 Along with BMO Real Estate Partners in-house Research, a variety of sources have been used in the production of this document including CBRE, Knight Frank, Savills, Avison Young, PMA, MSCI and Oxford Economics. LEGAL INFORMATION This document: • has been issued and approved by, and is the sole responsibility of, BMO REP Asset Management plc of 7 Seymour Street, London W1H 7JW (“BMO REP”) which is authorised and regulated by the Financial Conduct Authority in the United Kingdom (registration no. 119283). • is for professional investors/advisers only and the information in it may not be appropriate for all persons in all jurisdictions in the world. By accepting this document, you represent and warrant to BMO REP that you are an appropriate person to receive such information. • should not be considered as nor constitute as any investment, tax, legal or other advice and you should obtain specific professional advice before making any investment decision. Nor is it an offer or solicitation to deal in any of the investments or funds mentioned in it, by anyone in any jurisdiction in which such offer or solicitation would be unlawful or in which the person making such offer or solicitation is not qualified to do so or to anyone to whom it is unlawful to make such offer or solicitation. • contains confidential information belonging to BMO REP and/or third parties and is supplied to you solely for your information and may not be forwarded to any other person, reproduced or published in whole or in part for any purpose. No representation or warranty, express or implied, is given by BMO REP or any other person as to the accuracy or completeness of the information or opinions contained in this document. Save in the case of fraud, no liability is accepted for loss arising whether directly or indirectly as a result of the reader, any person or group of persons acting on any information or opinion contained in this document. BMO REP Asset Management plc is a subsidiary of BMO Real Estate Partners LLP and are members of the BMO Financial Group, which is itself wholly-owned by the Bank of Montreal. © 2021 BMO Real Estate Partners LLP. Registered in England and Wales with number OC338377. Registered Office: 7 Seymour Street, London W1H 7JW. BMO Real Estate Partners LLP, BMO REP Asset Management Plc and BMO REP Property Management Limited are members of the BMO Financial Group and are subsidiaries of the Bank of Montreal. 1520572 (08/21) UK, CH.
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