WAGER GUIDE - KENTUCKY DERBY MAY01/2021
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1/ST BET //
WAGER GUIDE
KENTUCKY DERBY
MAY01/2021
CHURCHILL
DOWNS
KENTUCKY DERBY 147
POST POSITIONS
O BESOS (20/1)
KNOWN AGENDA (6/1) Owner: Bernard Racing, Team
1 Owner: St. Elias Stable
Trainer: Todd Pletcher 6 Tagg Racing, Terry Stephens &
West Point Thoroughbreds
Jockey: Irad Ortiz Jr. Trainer: Greg Foley
Jockey: Marcelino Pedroza
LIKE THE KING (50/1) MANDALOUN (15/1)
2 Owner: M Racing Group
Trainer: Wesley Ward 7 Owner: Juddmonte
Trainer: Brad Cox
Jockey: Drayden Van Dyke Jockey: Florent Geroux
BROOKLYN STRONG
MEDINA SPIRIT (15/1)
(50/1)
3 Owner: Mark Schwartz
Trainer: Daniel Velazquez
8 Owner: Zedan Racing Stables
Trainer: Bob Baffert
Jockey: John Velazquez
Jockey: Umberto Rispoli
KEEPMEINMIND (50/1) HOT ROD CHARLIE (8/1)
Owner: Cypress Creek,
4 9
Owner: Roadrunner Racing,
Spendthrift Farm &
Boat Racing & William Strauss
Arnold Bennewith
Trainer: Doug O’Neill
Trainer: Robertino Diodoro
Jockey: Flavien Prat
Jockey: David Cohen
MIDNIGHT BOURBON
SAINTHOOD (50/1)
(20/1)
5 Owner: WinStar Farm & CHC
Trainer: Todd Pletcher 10 Owner: Winchell Thoroughbreds
Trainer: Steve Asmussen
Jockey: Corey Lanerie
Jockey: Mike Smith
Odds listed are Churchill Downs morning line odds.
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KENTUCKY DERBY 147
POST POSITIONS
DYNAMIC ONE (20/1) KING FURY (20/1)
11 16
Owner: Repole Stable, Phipps Owner: Fern Circle Stables &
Stable & St. Elias Stable Three Chimneys Farm
Trainer: Todd Pletcher Trainer: Ken McPeek
Jockey: Jose Ortiz Jockey: Brian Hernandez Jr.
HIGHLY MOTIVATED
HELIUM (50/1)
(10/1)
12 Owner: D J Stable
Trainer: Mark Casse 17 Owner: Klaravich Stables
Trainer: Chad Brown
Jockey: Julien Leparoux
Jockey: Javier Castellano
HIDDEN STASH (50/1) SUPER STOCK (30/1)
13 18
Owner: Erv Woolsey &
Owner: BBN Racing
Keith Asmussen
Trainer: Victoria Oliver
Trainer: Steve Asmussen
Jockey: Rafael Bejarano
Jockey: Ricardo Santana Jr.
ESSENTIAL QUALITY SOUP AND SANDWICH
(2/1) (30/1)
14 Owner: Godolphin
Trainer: Brad Cox
19 Owner: Live Oak Plantation
Trainer: Mark Casse
Jockey: Luis Saez Jockey: Tyler Gaffalione
ROCK YOUR WORLD
(5/1) BOURBONIC (30/1)
15 Owner: Hronis Racing &
Talla Racing 20 Owner: Calumet Farm
Trainer: Todd Pletcher
Trainer: John Sadler Jockey: Kendrick Carmouche
Jockey: Joel Rosario
Odds listed are Churchill Downs morning line odds.
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MEET THE 2021
DERBY CONTENDERS
By Johnny D., @XBJohnnyD
ESSENTIAL QUALITY: Unbeaten in five career starts, this son of Tapit is the defending Breeders’
Cup Juvenile winner and reigning 2-year-old champ. He’s also the current consensus pick as top
3-year-old. This Brad Cox-trained colt has done everything right in two 2021 starts. He romped
home in the Grade 3 Southwest at Oaklawn Park and then out-fought a game, pace scenario-
aided Highly Motivated at Keeneland to win the Grade 2 Blue Grass by a neck. He races a bit off
the pace early, but can quickly reach contention when prompted. He has won by as much as four
and one-quarter lengths and by as little as a neck. Last September, he broke his maiden first time
out going six furlongs at Churchill Downs, so you know he likes the track. Jockey Luis Saez seeks
redemption aboard this colt for the disappointment and criticism the rider endured following
the disqualification of his mount Maximum Security from first to 17th in the 2019 Kentucky Derby.
Trainer Brad Cox won last season’s Eclipse Award as the nation’s top trainer.
HOT ROD CHARLIE: Ever since stretching out to two turns on the main track and adding blinkers,
this son of Preakness winner Oxbow has been a tiger. His first race under those particular
circumstances came in the fourth start of his career and resulted in a one-mile maiden score at
Santa Anita in October. He then finished second in the Breeders’ Cup Juvenile by a mere neck
to the probable Kentucky Derby favorite Essential Quality at gigantic 94-1 odds. ‘Charlie began
2021 in the Grade 3 Robert B. Lewis at Santa Anita by finishing third-best by a neck in a desperate
photo involving Medina Spirt. Shipped to Louisiana for that state’s Derby, Hot Rod Charlie
dominated throughout to win by two lengths. Two-time Kentucky Derby-winning trainer Doug
O’Neill appears to have this fellow hitting on all cylinders as May 1 fast approaches.
SUPER STOCK: He burst onto the Kentucky Derby scene with a romping score in the Grade 1
Arkansas Derby. It was quite a turnaround for the son of Dialed In. At 12-1 odds, he roared home to
a more than two-length victory while looking more like a 4-5 shot under Hall of Fame trainer Steve
Asmussen’s main rider Ricardo Santana. A half-length defeat by eventual Grade 3 Lexington winner
King Fury in the Street Sense was this colt’s previous claim to fame last year, and it came over the
Churchill Downs strip. Of note is that one of his third-place finishes at 2 came nearly five lengths
behind Kentucky Derby favorite Essential Quality in the Grade 1 Breeders’ Futurity at Keeneland.
ROCK YOUR WORLD: Previously unbeaten in a pair of impressive turf races – including a maiden
and stakes victory – this son of Candy Ride upset heavily favored Medina Spirit with a wire-to-wire
tally in the Grade 1 Santa Anita Derby. Trainer John Sadler was not surprised at the outcome, as he
anticipated that this colt possessed mad skills. A March 28 bullet, five-furlong workout in :59 1/5
(best-of-76) enhanced confidence in the colt and he delivered the Grade 1 victory. Detractors will
point to Sadler’s lackluster record when racing out of town in graded stakes, but the conditioner
saddled Accelerate to win the 2018 BC Classic at Churchill Downs—home of the Kentucky Derby.
Besides the added distance, Rock Your World is expected to face more early pressure in the
Derby than he did in the Arcadia version. How he reacts to that will decide where he finishes in
the Run for the Roses. He raced a bit greenly in the SA Derby stretch, changing leads back and
forth, but it didn’t matter. He was that good. Interesting note: the breeders of Rock Your World are
Hall of Fame trainer Ron McAnally and his wife, Debbie.
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MEET THE 2021
DERBY CONTENDERS
By Johnny D., @XBJohnnyD
KNOWN AGENDA: Gulfstream Park Championship Meet top trainer Todd Pletcher and leading
jockey Irad Ortiz, Jr. combined skills with Known Agenda to win the Grade 1 Curlin Florida Derby.
No surprise there. What was a bit surprising, though, were the juicy, nearly 9/2 odds his backers
enjoyed. Fresh off an 11-length allowance tally while sporting a new set of blinkers, this son of
Curlin got a bit lost in the Florida Derby wagering behind favored Greatest Honour. Perhaps, a
field-splitting, well-beaten fifth as favorite in the Grade 3 Tampa Bay Derby had left a poor taste in
collective horseplayers’ mouths. Worse than third only once in six starts, Known Agenda boasts
just two wins—a maiden and the Grade 1 Florida Derby. Others have much better resumes than
this guy, but he’s hot right now for a trainer destined to enter the Hall of Fame in a few months and
already with a couple of Derby trophies.
MEDINA SPIRIT: Medina Spirit sent backers home with empty pockets following a disappointing
runner-up performance to Rock Your World as the less-than-even-money favorite in the Grade 1
Santa Anita Derby. It was a perplexing April for trainer Bob Baffert as Concert Tour also came up
short at odds-on in the Arkansas Derby. Medina Spirit’s only two previous losses in four starts had
come against stablemate Life is Good, who has been sidelined to injury. This guy has some early
pace, but is more of a ‘grinder’ than a speedster. While he’s never been worse than second in five
starts, he’ll need to pick up his game to win the Kentucky Derby. He’s steady and trained by six-
time Derby winner Baffert, who seeks a record No. 7.
HIGHLY MOTIVATED: Off a slightly troubled, close third as favorite in the Grade 3 Gotham at
Aqueduct, trainer Chad Brown boldly shipped this son of Into Mischief to Keeneland and a head-on
collision with top-ranked soph Essential Quality in the Grade 2 Blue Grass. The move nearly worked
as the unbeaten 2-year-old champ had to dig deep in the stretch to survive a neck decision over
Highly Motivated. A stakes winner at two, this colt has never been worse than third in five starts with
two wins and two seconds. He did have things his own way early in the Grade 2 Blue Grass, but it
was an important forward step for the colt going a mile and one-eighth for the first time.
KENTUCKY DERBY & OAKS
MONEY-BACK SPECIAL
CASH BACK ($10 MAX) WHEN YOUR WIN BET FINISHES 2ND OR
3RD ON EVERY CHURCHILL RACE ON DERBY & OAKS DAYS
FRI//APRIL 30 & SAT//MAY 1 - CHURCHILL DOWNS
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HANDICAP THE DERBY
LIKE EDDIE OLCZYK
? DID YOU KNOW?
The 1/ST BET app uses more than
50 factors in evaluating each horse
in a race, drawing from a library of
more than 200,000 previous races
to match past success with future
success. 1/ST BET automatically
matches and ranks the proven, most
successful factors in each race, while
We asked renowned 1/ST and NBC handicapper Eddie Olczyk which handicapping it also gives you the ability to select
angles he applies when analyzing the Kentucky Derby. Now, for the first time, you your own set of factors to make
can reconstruct Edzo’s approach and put it to work for yourself by combining personalized, artificial intelligence-
based selections in mere seconds.
forces with the 1/ST BET app.
Olczyk’s keys center on a horse’s speed to the mile marker at the head of the Kentucky Derby stretch, pedigree for the distance
and how weather and conditions may impact his selections. “Jockey and trainer stats aren’t for me in the Kentucky Derby,”
Olczyk said. “At that level, they’re all capable with the right horse.”
THE MILE MARKER 1/ST BET FACTORS TO APPLY
“Where are you when the lead horse gets to the one-mile point in the mile and BEST LIFETIME SPEED
one-quarter race? That’s the key,” Olczyk explained. “The last seven Derby BEST SPEED LAST 3
winners were first, second or third at that point and four of the last seven were AVERAGE SPEED LAST 3
on the lead, which I find very interesting. The ability to be up close, part of the AVG. LAST 3 E1 PACE
pace, matters. Consider a horse’s body of work in terms of speed and pace AVG. LAST 3 E2 PACE
figures, not just his last start, because each horse may or may not have been AVG. LAST 3 TURN TIMES
as hard-asked in their most recent start by trainer’s choice.”
PEDIGREE POINTS 1/ST BET FACTORS TO APPLY
“The last quarter-mile, once in position, is about stamina. None of these DISTANCE PEDIGREE RATING
horses have been a mile and one-quarter previously, which is part of the DIRT PEDIGREE RATING
Derby’s lore. That’s why pedigree matters to me.”
WEATHER OR NOT 1/ST BET FACTORS TO APPLY
“Wet tracks have been a Derby constant in recent years. If you’re handicapping BEST SPEED OFF TRACK
or betting ahead, you have to at least plan for the scenario. I’m constantly MUD PEDIGREE RATING
checking up on it. Not every horse has run on off tracks, so bloodlines can tell
us who might enjoy it.”
Olczyk’s final pointer, stay flexible. “Research is great, but don’t forget the eye test,” he reminded. “Watch what’s going on
Derby Day, how the track is playing, what’s been working for you that day. Go back and reassess which factors you’re putting
into your decisions.”
1/ST.COM/BET // XPRESSBET.COM 7
FACTORS THROUGH HISTORY
KENTUCKY DERBY 2016-2020
We searched the 1/ST BET archives to re-examine the last five editions of the Kentucky Derby. See where the winners ranked
best in their respective fields in terms of handicapping factors, and look for those commonalities with this year’s runners when
using the 1/ST BET app to handicap the “Run for the Roses.” Learn More.
2020 2018 - CONTINUED
WINNER: AUTHENTIC JOCKEY WIN % 2 YRS. RACE TYPE
RANKED FIRST IN 9 FACTORS WIN %
HORSES BEATEN % TRAINER CURRENT YR.
TRAINER 6 MO. WIN % LAST LATE PACE
JOCKEY WIN % 2 YRS. RACE TYPE JOCKEY 1 YR. WIN %
TRAINER CURRENT YEAR AVG. OF LAST 3 E1 PACE
LAST E2 PACE AVG. OF LAST 3 E2 PACE
AVG. OF LAST 3 E1 PACE
AVG. OF LAST 3 E2 PACE HORSES WHO LED MOST FACTORS:
DIST. WORKED SINCE LAST RACE JUSTIFY (15), GOOD MAGIC (4)
TRAINER WIN % 1 YEAR
2017
HORSES WHO LED MOST FACTORS:
TIZ THE LAW (17), AUTHENTIC (9), WINNER: ALWAYS DREAMING
MAX PLAYER (8) RANKED FIRST IN 3 FACTORS:
IN THE MONEY %
2019 JOCKEY CURRENT YEAR
AVERAGE LATE PACE
WINNER: COUNTRY HOUSE
RANKED FIRST IN 3 FACTORS: HORSES WHO LED MOST FACTORS:
JOCKEY 1 YR. WIN % CLASSIC EMPIRE (7), GORMLEY (5)
JOCKEY 6 MO. WIN %
AVG. LAST 3 TURN TIME 2016
HORSES WHO LED MOST FACTORS: WINNER: NYQUIST
GAME WINNER (8), RANKED FIRST IN 5 FACTORS
MAXIMUM SECURITY (7) AVG. OFF-TRACK EARNINGS
AVG. LIFETIME EARNINGS
2018 IN THE MONEY %
WIN %
WINNER: JUSTIFY
HORSES DEFEATED %
RANKED FIRST IN 15 FACTORS
SPEED LAST RACE HORSES WHO LED MOST FACTORS:
AVG. SPEED LAST 3 EXAGGERATOR (7), NYQUIST (5),
AVG. SPEED BEST 2 OF LAST 3 CREATOR (5), OSCAR NOMINATED (5)
BEST SPEED LAST 3
BEST LIFETIME SPEED FACTOR CATEGORIES:
BEST SPEED FAST TRACK = PERFORMANCE
BEST SPEED OFF TRACK = RESULTS
HORSES DEFEATED % = JOCKEY+ TRAINER Authentic (2020)
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1/ST BET: KENTUCKY DERBY
ARTIFICIAL INTELLIGENCE PICKS
The 1/ST INDEX analyzes millions of data points over more than 50 important handicapping factors to create an exclusive
handicapping tool that instantly puts the power of years of experience in the palm of your hand. Use the AI-assisted
selections or create and analyze your own factors ONLY in the 1/ST BET App. Learn More
HORSE WIN% PLACE% SHOW% FAIR ODDS
1 KNOWN AGENDA 3% 8% 18% 30/1
2 LIKE THE KING 3% 9% 13% 30/1
3 BROOKLYN STRONG 2% 5% 8% 50/1
4 KEEPMEINMIND 2% 5% 8% 50/1
5 SAINTHOOD 2% 5% 8% 50/1
6 O BESOS 2% 5% 8% 50/1
7 MANDALOUN 2% 5% 8% 50/1
8 MEDINA SPIRIT 2% 5% 8% 50/1
9 HOT ROD CHARLIE 16% 23% 30% 5/1
10 MIDNIGHT BOURBON 2% 5% 8% 50/1
11 DYNAMIC ONE 2% 5% 8% 50/1
12 HELIUM 3% 5% 13% 30/1
13 HIDDEN STASH 2% 5% 8% 50/1
14 ESSENTIAL QUALITY 22% 32% 41% 7/2
15 ROCK YOUR WORLD 15% 23% 33% 5/1
16 KING FURY 2% 5% 8% 50/1
17 HIGHLY MOTIVATED 8% 25% 39% 12/1
18 SUPER STOCK 2% 5% 7% 50/1
19 SOUP AND SANDWICH 3% 14% 23% 12/1
20 BOURBONIC 2% 5% 8% 50/1
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1/ST BET: CHURCHILL 5/1
ARTIFICIAL INTELLIGENCE PICKS
Race # - Post Time Win Place Show FairOdds Race # - Post Time Win Place Show FairOdds
RACE 1 (10:30 AM ET) // ALLOWANCE ($118K) RACE 8 (2:48 PM ET) // G2 PAT DAY MILE ($500K)
4 COOL BOBBY 31% 49% 59% 2/1 3 JACKIE’S WARRIOR 23% 42% 55% 7/2
6 SOUNION 11% 18% 35% 8/1 6 STARRININMYDREAMS 15% 25% 35% 6/1
3 MONEY FOR MISCHIEF 11% 15% 18% 8/1 8 DREAM SHAKE 13% 21% 29% 7/1
1A HUGE BIGLY 10% 25% 31% 9/1 9 SITTIN ON GO 10% 22% 36% 9/1
RACE 2 (11:01 AM ET) // MAIDEN ($115K) RACE 9 (3:40 PM ET) // G2 AMERICAN TURF ($500K)
1 CADENCIA 20% 39% 45% 4/1 4 ANNEX 23% 37% 47% 7/2
4 SURREALIST 12% 24% 36% 8/1 13 SCARLETT SKY 16% 31% 45% 5/1
2 ROBIN’S FANTASY 9% 12% 21% 10/1 8 BARRISTER TOM 11% 23% 46% 8/1
14 BIG BEE 8% 16% 23% 12/1 10 NEXT 9% 17% 28% 10/1
RACE 3 (11:31 AM ET) // MAIDEN ($115K) RACE 10 (4:31 PM ET) // G1 CHURCHILL DOWNS ($500K)
7 ALEJANDRO 30% 51% 63% 5/2 9 WHITMORE 25% 38% 49% 3/1
4 CASH ROCKET 19% 32% 53% 9/2 13 LEXITONIAN 11% 25% 31% 8/1
1 HARVARD 9% 20% 29% 10/1 5 TAP IT TO WIN 10% 23% 33% 9/1
5 KOOLHAUS 7% 16% 35% 12/1 10 BANGO 10% 15% 27% 9/1
RACE 4 (12:04 PM ET) // ALLOWANCE ($121K) RACE 11 (5:27 PM ET) // G1 TURF CLASSIC ($1M)
1 INVADER 26% 35% 44% 3/1 3 COLONEL LIAM 25% 43% 57% 3/1
12 GEAR JOCKEY 14% 21% 38% 6/1 6 DIGITAL AGE 18% 29% 45% 9/2
14 SUPER SOL 11% 31% 41% 8/1 4 IVAR 14% 33% 46% 6/1
8 FIRST PREMIO 6% 11% 20% 15/1 5 DOMESTIC SPENDING 11% 23% 34% 8/1
RACE 5 (12:36 PM ET) // ALLOWANCE ($118K) RACE 12 (6:57 PM ET) // G1 KENTUCKY DERBY ($3M)
5 GHAZAALY 21% 37% 52% 4/1 14 ESSENTIAL QUALITY 22% 32% 41% 7/2
2 WHO TOOK THE MONEY 18% 33% 49% 9/2 9 HOT ROD CHARLIE 16% 23% 30% 5/1
10 SCALES OF JUSTICE 15% 30% 42% 6/1 15 ROCK YOUR WORLD 15% 23% 33% 6/1
9 REGULAR GUY 8% 23% 38% 12/1 17 HIGHLY MOTIVATED 8% 25% 39% 12/1
RACE 6 (1:14 PM ET) // DISTAFF TURF MILE ($500K) RACE 13 (7:55 PM ET) // ALLOWANCE ($118K)
5 GOT STORMY 31% 44% 61% 2/1 4 PRIME FACTOR 18% 40% 50% 9/2
6 BLOWOUT 20% 52% 68% 4/1 8 WORA 18% 31% 40% 9/2
4 ZOFELLE 16% 26% 44% 5/1 7 ONE FAST CAT 10% 15% 34% 9/1
2 SHE’S GOT YOU 10% 21% 41% 9/1 3 TULANE TRYST 8% 29% 37% 12/1
RACE 7 (1:56 PM ET) // G1 DERBY CITY DISTAFF ($500K) RACE 14 (8:30 PM ET) // MAIDEN ($115K)
4 GAMINE 33% 51% 63% 2/1 1 BAGBOSS 25% 49% 70% 3/1
3 BELL’S THE ONE 20% 41% 59% 4/1 9 GLOBAL APPEAL 14% 30% 46% 6/1
5 HIBISCUS PUNCH 17% 37% 59% 5/1 3 KING’S MISCHIEF 12% 25% 39% 8/1
1 ESTILO TALENTOSO 12% 30% 51% 8/1 7 MR SIPPI 10% 20% 31% 9/1
1/ST.COM/BET // XPRESSBET.COM 10KENTUCKY DERBY
WAGERING FACTS
Below are some informative wagering tidbits from past Kentucky Derby events.
WIN-PLACE-SHOW ODDS DERBY FAVORITES IN POINTS’ SYSTEM ERA (2013-PRESENT)
(Last 25 Years, Odds to $1) Year Favorite Odds ($1) Fin.
Win Odds: Average: 14.10-to-1 2020 Tiz the Law .70 2nd
High: 65.20 (Country House, 2019) 2019 Improbable 4.00 4th
Low: 2.30 (Fusaichi Pegasus, 2000; Nyquist 2016) 2018 Justify 2.90 1st
Notable: After 6 straight favorites, the past 2 Derby winners have 2017 Always Dreaming 4.70 1st
netted 65-1 and 8-1 returns. 2016 Nyquist 2.30 1st
2015 American Pharoah 2.90 1st
Place Odds: Average: 17.15-to-1 2014 California Chrome 2.50 1st
High: 71.60 (Closing Argument, 2005) 2013 Orb 5.40 1st
Low: 0.70 (Tiz the Law, 2020)
Notable: Last year, Tiz the Law became the third Derby favorite to finish DERBY FAVORITES BY DECADE
second since 2000 (joining Bodemeister ‘12 and Empire Maker ‘03). 2020s 0-for-1
2010s 6-for-10
Show Odds: Average: 12.04 2000s 4-for-10
High: 46.50 (Mr. Big News, 2020) 1990s 0-for-10
Low: 2.70 (Indian Charlie, 1998) 1980s 0-for-10
Notable: In 2020, Mr. Big News offered the longest price to finish 1970s 6-for-10
third in the Derby since 86-1 bomber Mane Minister in 1991.
HIGHEST-PRICED DERBY FAVORITES IN HISTORY
EXACTA PAYOFFS (Odds to $1)
(Last 25 years, $2 Payoffs) Odds Horse Year Fin.
Average: $890.41 6.30 Lookin At Lucky 2010 6th
High: $9,814.80 (Giacomo-Closing Argument, 2005) 6.00 Harlan’s Holiday 2002 7th
Low: $30.60 (Nyquist-Exaggerator, 2016) 5.50 Sweetnorthernsaint 2006 7th
Notable: The last 2 Derby exactas provided the second-highest and 5.40 Orb 2013 1st
second-lowest returns of the past 20 years – $3,009.60 in 2019 and 5.20 Dialed In 2011 8th
$41 a year ago. 4.90 Street Sense 2007 1st
4.80 General Challenge/ 1999 5th
TRIFECTA PAYOFFS Excellent Meeting
(Last 25 years, $2 Payoffs) 4.70 Always Dreaming 2017 1st
Average: $11,722.60 4.40 Prairie Bayou 1993 2nd
High: $133,134.80 (Giacomo-Closing Argument-Afleet Alex, 2005) 4.20 Bodemeister 2012 2nd
Low: $173.40 (Nyquist-Exaggerator-Gun Runner, 2016) 4.10 Smarty Jones 2004 1st
Notable: Last year’s trifecta paid nearly 64 times the exacta,
thanks to 46-1 shot Mr. Big News in third. HIGHEST-PRICED DERBY RUNNERS IN SUPERFECTA
(Last 20 Years, Odds to $1)
SUPERFECTA PAYOFFS Odds Horse Year Fin.
(Since 1996, $1 Payoffs) 85.10 Instilled Regard 2018 4th
Average: $74,922.77 71.60 Closing Argument 2005 2nd
High: $864,253.50 (Giacomo-Closing Argument-Afleet Alex- 65.20 Country House 2019 1st
Don’t Get Mad, 2005) 50.60 Mine That Bird 2009 1st
Low: $350.00 (Silver Charm-Captain Bodgit-Free House-Pulpit, 1997) 50.30 Giacomo 2005 1st
Notable: Last year’s superfecta was the first to offer a 10-cent wagering 46.50 Mr. Big News 2020 3rd
minimum, creating a modest $792.58 dime payoff ($7925.80 for $1, 41.70 Limehouse 2004 4th
only about 1/10th the historical average). $1 minimum returns this year. 40.00 Battle of Midway 2017 3rd
1/ST.COM/BET // XPRESSBET.COM 11KENTUCKY DERBY
GRADE 1 - $3,000,000
3YO – 1 1/4 MILES (DIRT)
RAIL OR NOT, ? KNOW THIS
HERE WE COME DERBY-WINNING TRAINERS IN THIS
YEAR’S FIELD:
By Eddie Olczyk (@1stbet) • Bob Baffert (Medina Spirit) 6X
• Doug O’Neill (Hot Rod Charlie) 2X
ANALYSIS: I’ve been known to swing for the fences on occasion in the Kentucky • Todd Pletcher (Bourbonic, Dynamic One,
Known Agenda, Sainthood) 2X
Derby – see Enforceable last September – and why not in a 20-horse field with so
many new variables? But it’s become apparent in recent years that you need to have
DERBY-WINNING JOCKEYS IN THIS
a horse squarely in the hunt by the head of the stretch. This year’s Derby pace is YEAR’S FIELD:
less defined than some years, but rest assured the winner is most likely to emerge • Flavien Prat (Hot Rod Charlie) 1X
well before the wire. • Joel Rosario (Rock Your World) 1X
• Mike Smith (Midnight Bourbon) 2X
• John Velazquez (Medina Spirit) 3X
MAIN CONTENDERS: Morning line favorite ESSENTIAL QUALITY is an obvious
contender with his unbeaten record and versatile running style. And while he certainly
DERBY ROOKIE TRAINERS IN THIS
could continue a solid run for chalk in this race over the past decade, he doesn’t YEAR’S FIELD:
lay over the field enough to take the short price. KNOWN AGENDA and HOT ROD • Brad Cox (Essential Quality, Mandaloun)
CHARLIE are the best alternatives to the favorite and both have major win chances • Robertino Diodoro (Keepmeinmind)
exiting scores in the Florida and Louisiana Derbies. Obviously, I’m not thrilled by the • Victoria Oliver (Hidden Stash)
• Danny Velazquez (Brooklyn Strong)
rail draw for KNOWN AGENDA, but this horse is athletic and the new gate may help. I
• Wesley Ward (Like the King)
will have an idea early on in the race if I’ve got a shot with his position a half-mile into
the Derby. He has the pedigree to get himself home if in position. DERBY ROOKIE JOCKEYS IN THIS
YEAR’S FIELD:
VALUE PLAYS: SAINTHOOD will be a price bomb for Todd Pletcher, who also trains • Kendrick Carmouche (Bourbonic)
my top pick KNOWN AGENDA. Pletcher has had some longshot exotics impact in • David Cohen (Keepmeinmind)
• Umberto Rispoli (Brooklyn Strong)
the Derby with his vast entries, Invisible Ink (55-1) and Bluegrass Cat (30-1) among
• Marcelino Pedroza (O Besos)
them. You don’t have to have a wild price in your Derby exotics to be successful, but
it sure helps if you land on the right one.
$100 WAGERING STRATEGY:
• $12 Win-Place-Show: KNOWN AGENDA ($36)
• $6 Exacta key-box: KNOWN AGENDA with HOT ROD CHARLIE, SAINTHOOD,
ESSENTIAL QUALITY ($36)
• $.50 Trifecta Part-wheel: KNOWN AGENDA with HOT ROD CHARLIE,
SAINTHOOD, ESSENTIAL QUALITY with ALL ($27)
TOP 4 PICKS
1. KNOWN AGENDA 3. SAINTHOOD
2. HOT ROD CHARLIE 4. ESSENTIAL QUALITY
1/ST.COM/BET // XPRESSBET.COM 12KENTUCKY DERBY
GRADE 1 - $3,000,000
3YO – 1 1/4 MILES (DIRT)
LET’S BACK MACK 1/ST BET AI PICKS - KY OAKS
AND ESSENTIAL QUALITY FRIDAY’S GRADE 1 KENTUCKY OAKS
CHURCHILL DOWNS // RACE 11
By Brent Musburger (@brentmusburger)
Post Win % Place % Show %
ANALYSIS: Ask folks to name the three undefeated horses in the Kentucky Derby, SEARCH RESULTS
12
and chances are they can name one or two, but they will have a tough time with the 31% 46% 56%
third. ESSENTIAL QUALITY is the easy one. He will be the big favorite this weekend, TRAVEL COLUMN
6
even bigger after ‘Mattress Mack’ Jim McIngvale gets done betting on him. His 14% 34% 45%
5-for-5 record includes the 2020 Breeders’ Cup Juvenile, one of his two Grade 1
10 MALATHAAT
wins. ROCK YOUR WORLD snuck in from the turf to win the Santa Anita Derby, and 12% 23% 32%
even though he is only 3-for-3, he will attract a lot of money, too. Then there is the
14 MILLEFEUILLE
forgotten horse that is also 3-for-3. HELIUM has not raced since he won the Tampa 8% 19% 24%
Bay Derby, but he will not be among the favorites. Never mind whether he can go a
mile and one-quarter; he has not even gone a mile and one-eighth. 4 CRAZY BEAUTIFUL
8% 13% 32%
MAIN CONTENDERS: I was all prepared to pick KNOWN AGENDA. I love the 3 CLAIRIERE
5% 13% 28%
connections. I love Irad Ortiz Jr., who has won the last three Eclipse Awards as the
best jockey in America. I love the fact that this horse is 2-for-2 since trainer Todd Pletcher 5 PASS THE CHAMPAGNE
put blinkers on him. And I never walk away from a Florida Derby winner. But I will not back a 3% 11% 26%
horse coming out of the No. 1 post. Ferdinand was the last to win the Kentucky Derby from MORAZ
8
there, and that was 35 years ago. I’m going go with the chalk. I’m going to play ESSENTIAL 3% 9% 14%
QUALITY despite the fact that Breeders’ Cup Juvenile winners are only 2-for-36 in the PAULINE’S PEARL
1
Derby, and his Godolphin ownership has never won in 11 tries in this race. His jockey Luis 3% 6% 8%
Sáez was a Kentucky Derby winner two years ago for only 22 minutes before he and
2 MARACUJA
Maximum Security were DQ’d. Still, I’m going to play him, because 5-for-5 is 5-for-5. 3% 5% 8%
7 AVA’S GRACE
VALUE PLAYS: Forget it. Mattress Mack convinced me I have to go with the chalk. 3% 5% 8%
My favorite Houston furniture dealer is refunding the $3,000 purchase price on new
mattresses if the shortest-priced horse wins the Derby. This is not just some stunt from 9 COACH
3% 5% 8%
a billionaire gambler. Jim McIngvale owns more than 50 racehorses. He is also putting
$2 million of his own money on Essential Quality. That means I’m not going to get a very 11 WILL’S SECRET
3% 5% 8%
good price. Even though my friend Mack is going to hammer the odds, I’m going to bet
on that horse to go 6-for-6 for Sheikh Mo. Ordinarily, I would make this a win-show bet, 13 COMPETITIVE SPEED
but that is when 150,000 people pour into Churchill Downs. There will be only 45,000 3% 5% 8%
and less casual money, so I am going straight on the nose with Essential Quality.
TIP: Scratches can impact the 1/ST BET
AI picks, so be sure to run the app’s
$100 WAGERING STRATEGY: handicapping features on Oaks Day for
• $100 Win: ESSENTIAL QUALITY the latest projections.
TOP 4 PICKS
1. ESSENTIAL QUALITY 3. ROCK YOUR WORLD
2. HOT ROD CHARLIE 4. SUPER STOCK
1/ST.COM/BET // XPRESSBET.COM 13KENTUCKY DERBY
GRADE 1 - $3,000,000
3YO – 1 1/4 MILES (DIRT)
FLORIDA DERBY STATS & TRENDS
HIGH ON AGENDA 2019-‘20 DERBY HANDLE TOTALS
(Handle in Millions Except Hi-5)
By Jeremy Plonk, @HorsePlayerNow Pool 2019 2020
Win/Place/Show $65.7 $31.1
ANALYSIS: Well-backed runners attending the pace have become engrained in Kentucky Exacta $26.0 $11.9
Trifecta $34.7 $13.0
Derby success since California Chrome ushered in the style in 2014, the second year of the
Superfecta $16.6 $9.5
race’s qualifying points system. This year’s Blue Grass, Florida Derby, Arkansas Derby and
Super High Five $644K $776K
Louisiana Derby all were won by horses within 3 lengths of the lead after the opening Pick Four $4.1 $2.8
half-mile. The best of this crop should once again fit the Derby’s best-laid plans. Pick Five $4.0 $2.8
Oaks/Derby Double $2.8 $1.2
MAIN CONTENDERS: The top-rated races I scouted this year by performance were Pick Six $1.1 $2.4
the Blue Grass, Florida Derby and Santa Anita Derby, and that’s where I’ll focus.
DERBY WINNERS’ PREVIOUS STARTS
Derby favorite ESSENTIAL QUALITY won the Blue Grass to remain unbeaten,
Year Derby Winner Sts 2YO 3YO
but my concern is that it was too tough of a race, also a factor for its runner-up ‘20* Authentic 5 1 4
HIGHLY MOTIVATED. It’s a week closer to the big Derby than the Florida Derby, with ‘19 Country House 6 2 4
less recovery time and the favorite hasn’t impressed me in the a.m.. Meanwhile, ‘18 Justify 3 0 3
KNOWN AGENDA checks all the boxes off his Florida Derby win, a race that’s ‘17 Always Dreaming 5 2 3
‘16 Nyquist 7 5 2
produced 3 of the last 8 Kentucky Derby winners and was DQ’d out of a fourth.
‘15 Amer. Pharoah 5 3 2
Super-talented Santa Anita Derby champ ROCK YOUR WORLD comes in with
‘14 Cal. Chrome 10 7 3
Justify’s electric, but awfully light, resume – one that wins the Kentucky Derby every ‘13 Orb 7 4 3
100 years or so. His most recent pursuer MEDINA SPIRIT may be the crop’s most ‘12 I’ll Have Another 5 3 2
steady performer for 6-time Derby winner Bob Baffert, but would be more of a Super ‘11 Animal Kingdom 4 2 2
Saver-type Derby winner, steady but unspectacular, one we haven’t seen since 2010. * - September Derby
HOT ROD CHARLIE dazzled in a 6-furlong work and moved up for me. Beware.
WORST FINAL PREP TO WIN DERBY
(Since 1906)
VALUE PLAYS: A deep closer has dotted the Derby superfecta every year since Fin. Horse Year
War Emblem’s theft in 2002 when even his pursuers were rather close up. The vast 12th Stone Street 1908
majority of these closers have been the biggest prices amongst the annual exotics. 5th Iron Liege 1957
Find yours, match with a logical win contender and make some magic. DYNAMIC 5th Count Turf 1951
5th Doneraile 1913
ONE has run impressive 103 BRIS late pace figures twice (96 in the Wood wasn’t
5th Pink Star 1907
even near his best) and Todd Pletcher’s barn is going gangbusters since mid-
March. Pletcher may also have the win value with KNOWN AGENDA in the 8-1 range,
? KNOW THIS
the 1 post not as big of a deal with the new gate.
All Wet: According to the National
$100 WAGERING STRATEGY: Weather Service, rain has fallen on
• $46 Win: KNOWN AGENDA Kentucky Derby Day 11 of the past
13 years when held in May. The track
• $18 Exacta part-wheel: KNOWN AGENDA and HOT ROD CHARIE with DYNAMIC ONE ($36)
condition has been sloppy or wet-fast
• $.50 Trifecta part-wheel: KNOWN AGENDA, HOT ROD CHARLIE with ALL with
each of the past 3 spring Derbies.
DYNAMIC ONE ($18)
TOP 4 PICKS
1. KNOWN AGENDA 3. DYNAMIC ONE
2. HOT ROD CHARLIE 4. HIGHLY MOTIVATED
1/ST.COM/BET // XPRESSBET.COM 14KENTUCKY DERBY
GRADE 1 - $3,000,000
3YO – 1 1/4 MILES (DIRT)
WE WANT THE WORLD KENTUCKY DERBY HISTORY
AND WE WANT IT NOW THE LAST...
ARKANSAS DERBY ALUM TO WIN:
By Jeff Siegel @jsiegelracing Country House (2019)
ANALYSIS: There once was an era when the favorite for the Kentucky Derby was BLUE GRASS ALUM TO WIN:
Street Sense (2007)
– or should have been – an automatic toss. It’s hard to believe the chalk went 20
consecutive years (1980-1999) without delivering. Since then, punters apparently
FLORIDA DERBY ALUM TO WIN:
have learned the game, because in the 21 years since that drought, the betting Always Dreaming (2017)
choice in the Triple Crown’s first jewel has gone 10-for-21. So, shouldn’t backers of
the undefeated 2020 champion 2-year-old ESSENTIAL QUALITY be able to wager LOUISIANA DERBY ALUM TO WIN:
with a good degree of confidence? Maybe not. Only two colts in 37 years – Street Country House (2019)
Sense and Nyquist – have been able to parlay a Breeders’ Cup Juvenile victory to
SANTA ANITA DERBY ALUM TO WIN:
success on the first Saturday in May. Truth is, we can spout conflicting historical
Authentic (2020)
trends all night. In handicapping the Derby, maybe it’s best to ignore antiquated
“rules” and simply concentrate on the present. JEFF RUBY ALUM TO WIN:
Animal Kingdom (2011)
MAIN CONTENDERS: ESSENTIAL QUALITY is undefeated, but so is ROCK YOUR
WOOD MEMORIAL ALUM TO WIN:
WORLD. Based strictly on speed figures, the California-based colt, even with just
Funny Cide (2003)
three career starts, is the faster of the unbeatens. ROCK YOUR WORLD may be
better-suited for the Derby’s classic 10-furlong distance, and probably has a JOCKEY TO WIN BACK-TO-BACK:
higher ceiling. The John Sadler-trained colt originally was thought to be better on Victor Espinoza (2014 California Chrome,
grass than dirt, but even if his Santa Anita Derby win proved he could adapt to the 2015 American Pharoah)
main track, skeptics will point out that the Candy Ride colt has yet to experience
TRAINER TO WIN BACK-TO-BACK:
kickback. What happens, they ask, if he draws an inside post and doesn’t break
Bob Baffert (1997 Silver Charm,
sharply? These are legitimate concerns. But the Derby is usually won by the best
1998 Real Quiet)
horse. ROCK YOUR WORLD is the best horse. Not a month ago. Now.
JOCKEY TO WIN DERBY DEBUT:
VALUE PLAYS: If ROCK YOUR WORLD leaves at around 6-1 odds, that’s value. Mario Gutierrez (2012 I’ll Have Another)
Others that have credentials to at least hit the board include recent prep winners
TRAINER TO WIN DERBY DEBUT:
KNOWN AGENDA, HOT ROD CHARLIE and, yes, even undefeated HELIUM, an
Art Sherman (2014 California Chrome)
out-of-sight, out-of-mind colt who may be better than given credit for.
JOCKEY TO WIN OAKS &
$100 WAGERING STRATEGY: DERBY SAME YEAR:
• $52 Win: ROCK YOUR WORLD ($52) Calvin Borel (2009 Rachel Alexandra
• $2 Exacta Box: ROCK YOUR WORLD, ESSENTIAL QUALITY, KNOWN AGENDA, and Mine That Bird)
HOT ROD CHARLIE ($24)
TRAINER TO WIN OAKS &
• $2 Exacta Box: ROCK YOUR WORLD, ESSENTIAL QUALITY, KNOWN AGENDA,
DERBY SAME YEAR:
HELIUM ($24) Ben Jones (1952 with Real Delight & Hill Gail)
TOP 4 PICKS
1. ROCK YOUR WORLD 3. KNOWN AGENDA
2. ESSENTIAL QUALITY 4. HOT ROD CHARLIE
1/ST.COM/BET // XPRESSBET.COM 15KENTUCKY DERBY
EXPERT PICKS
We tasked our expert racing analysts across the 1/ST family to provide their selections for this year’s first jewel in
the Triple Crown.
JEFF JOHN MICHELLE NAOMI
SIEGEL DESANTIS YU TUKKER
@jsiegelracing @XBJohnnyD @themichelleyu @NaomiTukker
ROCK YOUR WORLD HOT ROD CHARLIE ESSENTIAL QUALITY HOT ROD CHARLIE
ESSENTIAL QUALITY ESSENTIAL QUALITY ROCK YOUR WORLD ESSENTIAL QUALITY
KNOWN AGENDA KNOWN AGENDA MEDINA SPIRIT ROCK YOUR WORLD
HOT ROD CHARLIE HIGHLY MOTIVATED HOT ROD CHARLIE KNOWN AGENDA
JEREMY TOM MILLIE RON
PLONK QUIGLEY BALL NICOLETTI
@Horseplayernow @quigleys_corner @camillayakteen @RONIC17
KNOWN AGENDA HELIUM KNOWN AGENDA ROCK YOUR WORLD
HOT ROD CHARLIE MEDINA SPIRIT ESSENTIAL QUALITY KNOWN AGENDA
DYNAMIC ONE HOT ROD CHARLIE HOT ROD CHARLIE ESSENTIAL QUALITY
HIGHLY MOTIVATED ROCK YOUR WORLD ROCK YOUR WORLD SOUP AND SANDWICH
CLAUDIA MATT ZOE JON
SPADARO DINERMAN CADMAN WHITE
@claudiaspadaro @3coltshandicap @zoecadman @PostTimeJon
ESSENTIAL QUALITY ROCK YOUR WORLD DYNAMIC ONE ESSENTIAL QUALITY
ROCK YOUR WORLD HOT ROD CHARLIE HOT ROD CHARLIE ROCK YOUR WORLD
KNOWN AGENDA ESSENTIAL QUALITY SUPER STOCK KNOWN AGENDA
HIGHLY MOTIVATED MIDNIGHT BOURBON SOUP AND SANDWICH HOT ROD CHARLIE
PETER DUSTIN GEORGE EDDIE
LURIE FABIAN ORTUZAR OLCZYK
@Peterlurievo @1STBET @georgeortuzar @1STBET
KNOWN AGENDA ROCK YOUR WORLD HOT ROD CHARLIE KNOWN AGENDA
ESSENTIAL QUALITY ESSENTIAL QUALITY ROCK YOUR WORLD HOT ROD CHARLIE
HOT ROD CHARLIE HIGHLY MOTIVATED ESSENTIAL QUALITY SAINTHOOD
MANDALOUN HOT ROD CHARLIE MEDINA SPIRIT ESSENTIAL QUALITY
1/ST.COM/BET // XPRESSBET.COM 16XBTV KENTUCKY DERBY
WORKOUT ANALYSIS
By Zoe Cadman, Millie Ball & Michelle Yu
The Kentucky Derby is such a unique race, and yet the formula for eyeing the winner based on morning workouts remains the
same, according to XBTV analyst Millie Ball: Good energy + fluid stride + focused demeanor.
HORSE DATE TRACK DISTANCE TIME
ESSENTIAL QUALITY 4/17 CD 5F :59.60 (4/40)
ZOE CADMAN: Undefeated son of Tapit has certainly been on a good run of late. His race at
Keeneland was a measured one while not taking too much out of him just four weeks before the
Derby. He does own a win over the CD strip, which is key, but ... I have to say I thought his first work
after the Blue Grass, while not bad, was not the best we have seen from him. Tracking the 2-for-
8 gelding Spa City (most recently last in an allowance race at Oaklawn), he looked primed to run
right by him at the wire, but really never got by him even in the gallop-out. I would have liked to
have seen more in the penultimate work for a champion with only two starts under his belt this year.
ROCK YOUR WORLD 4/17 SA 5 F 59.60 (6/72)
MICHELLE YU: Rock Your World worked outside of company April 17 as is his normal routine. He
was always in the bridle and much the best. This was improvement this week for a horse who
sometimes needs a real sousing to find his best stride in the mornings.
KNOWN AGENDA 4/16 CD 5F 1:00.40 (9/36)
SAINTHOOD 4/16 CD 5F 1:00.40 (9/36)
MILLIE BALL: Todd Pletcher appears to be replicating the training schedule he used for 2017
Florida Derby and Kentucky Derby winner Always Dreaming for his most recent Florida Derby
winner Known Agenda. He and Jeff Ruby runner-up Sainthood both returned to the track to
publish a work 13 days after their final prep and were then given a stiff 5-furlong drill together
seven days later on April 16. If Pletcher continues to mirror Always Dreaming’s timetable, expect
a 5F work from both contenders April 23, which will be eight days prior to the race. One change
Todd has made this year is choosing to ship his runners to Churchill Downs a week earlier than
normal to post their penultimate works. He said he paired up Known Agenda up with Sainthood,
“because of the spacing of their last race.” Known Agenda appeared to travel smoother of the
two colts, never blobbing once. Both finished on even terms although jockey Irad Ortiz Jr. did tap
Known Agenda on the neck a couple of times to keep him on task. Interestingly, the published
time 1:00.40 was a 5-furlong personal best for both sophomores since arriving in training.
Evidently they are continuing to progress. My preference is Known Agenda. I mentioned prior
to the Florida Derby that stamina is his strength. He has an extremely efficient way of moving,
coupled with a pedigree for distance, and the blinkers have made him more tactical,
all ingredients for Kentucky Derby success.
HOT ROD CHARLIE 4/17 SA 6F 1:14.20 (5/6)
ZOE CADMAN: The son of Oxbow may be flying under the radar, even after winning the
Louisiana Derby. Losing his jock Joel Rosario won’t help, but will add to his price. Working in
company with 4-year-old claimer Itsthattime (recently second for $20k), he tracked him all the
way to the eighth-pole under Flavien Prat and cruised by him to gallop out a good mile. Nothing
flashy, but his long, easy stride should not be a problem at Churchill Downs. Good work for a colt
coming right at just the right time.
1/ST.COM/BET // XPRESSBET.COM 17XBTV KENTUCKY DERBY
WORKOUT ANALYSIS
By Zoe Cadman, Milie Ball & Michelle Yu
HORSE DATE TRACK DISTANCE TIME
MEDINA SPIRIT 4/17 SA 5F 1:00.00 (4/43)
ZOE CADMAN: Working in company with Paint Me Lucky (an 0-6 maiden), this was his first work
back since running second in the Santa Anita Derby. The son of Protonico looked good tracking
his company and drawing off down the lane with a bit of niggling; a solid work from a colt who
leaves his heart on the track every time. Not sure the pace scenario or the distance will help this
hard-trying colt, especially with several hard races of late.
HIGHLY MOTIVATED 4/18 KEE 4F :47.20 (1/27)
MICHELLE YU: In his normal spot inside a workmate, he was aggressive with his ears pinned,
but always in hand. Highly Motivated looked super-fit and intense for the entirety.
MIDNIGHT BOURBON 4/19 CD 5F :59.80 (1/13)
MILLIE BALL: The video posted on social media of Midnight Bourbon getting loose on the
backside April 19 (here) deserved more attention than his bullet work posted earlier that
morning. It came across as rather a poorly matched, erratic team drill. Midnight Bourbon’s
workmate left the pole a length in front and no sooner had his company begun to track in
behind, the lead horse tapped on the brakes, at a crucial point, causing the whole tempo of the
work to change. The Louisiana Derby runner-up got aggressive when asked to slow in order to
remain in tandem, and it was all his rider could do to hold him until the stretch. It was hard to tell
if horse or rider gave up the ghost, but Midnight Bourbon found his stride in the last two furlongs
and, despite the expended energy, put in a decent gallop-out.
MANDALOUN 4/17 CD 6F 1:11.40 (1/3)
MILLIE BALL: Mandaloun’s 6-furlong breeze April 17 flashed me back to the morning of August
23, 2020 when Thousand Words worked at Del Mar, 13 days prior to his intended run in the
Kentucky Derby. Both 3-year-olds were equally aggressive leaving the pole with company, both
riders had to lean hard against their mouths for 3 furlongs before they conceded and settled
for the remainder of the work. And in both instances, it took its toll on the gallop-out with each
colt needing taps from their riders to stay the course. Thousand Words’ eagerness on the Triple
Crown trail was his demise, and I fear the same for Mandaloun.
LIKE THE KING 4/17 KEE 6F 1:12.80 (1/3)
MICHELLE YU: Working with classy company (Canadian sprint champ Artie’s Princess), he was
ultra-aggressive in a come-from-behind move, dragging Drayden Van Dyke even and to the
front. He geared way down and the mate was asked to keep up. Not a perfect work, but done
with something left.
Video provided by XBTV, the home of the latest workouts, analysis and more this
Triple Crown Season and every other race day of the year. Additional video courtesy
Kentucky Derby & Keeneland.
1/ST.COM/BET // XPRESSBET.COM 18XBTV KENTUCKY DERBY
WORKOUT ANALYSIS
By Zoe Cadman, Milie Ball & Michelle Yu
HORSE DATE TRACK DISTANCE TIME
SOUP AND SANDWICH 4/17 CD 5F :59.80 (7/40)
MILLIE BALL: Soup and Sandwich worked professionally in his 5-furlong drill April 17 at
Churchill. He made up ground on his target, and passed the workmate comfortably while
keeping to his correct lead changes throughout the work, something I was keen to see after his
runner-up performance in the Florida Derby, where he ran the entire length of the stretch on his
left lead, barring the last 5 strides. Given a long rein by the rider from start to finish in this work,
the colt appears a very tactical ride and seemed obliging when asked to gallop-out all the way
around to the backside. I liked the energy he was able to sustain.
HELIUM 4/16 CD 5F (GATE) 1:01.80 (28/36)
ZOE CADMAN: Unraced since winning the Tampa Bay Derby March 6 with an 84 Beyer, trainer
Mark Casse opted to work this son of Ironicus out of the gate April 16. That’s a good move, as
this always adds to fitness and gets their minds on running. Nothing wrong with the work or his
action over the CD strip (his second move since coming from Florida). The only question really
is, “Is he good enough?” Would have to see something amazing in his next work to make him a
major contender. But, hey, it’s the Derby and anything can happen.
ADDITIONAL UPDATED WORKOUT ANALYSIS AVAILABLE ONLINE AT 1/ST BET AND XPRESSBET.
WRITE YOUR NOTES HERE:
Video provided by XBTV, the home of the latest workouts, analysis and more this
Triple Crown Season and every other race day of the year. Additional video courtesy
Kentucky Derby & Keeneland.
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KENTUCKY DERBY
NEED-TO-KNOW
RACE DATE: SATURDAY, MAY 1
FIRST RACE POST TIME: 10:30 A.M. ET
KENTUCKY DERBY POST TIME: 6:57 P.M. ET
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WAGERING NOTES: OAKS-DERBY DAILY DOUBLE & TWO-DAY PICK 6 (FRI/SAT)
DERBY DAY STAKES LINEUP
Grade 1 Kentucky Derby $3,000,000 3YO 1-1/4 miles
Grade 1 Turf Classic $1,000,000 4&UP 1-1/8 miles (turf)
Grade 1 Derby City Distaff $500,000 4&UP FM 7 furlongs
Grade 1 Churchill Downs $500,000 4&UP 7 furlongs
Grade 2 Pat Day Mile $500,000 3YO 1 mile
Grade 2 Distaff Turf Mile $500,000 4&UP FM 1 mile (turf)
Grade 2 American Turf $500,000 3YO 1-1/16 miles (turf)
KENTUCKY DERBY & OAKS
MONEY-BACK SPECIAL
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