Wednesday, 17 April 2019 - Vellichor Group
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Wednesday, 17 April 2019
VAT Number: GB286 5218 76
UK Company Number: 10884308
DUNS Number: 223121945
The information contained in this work is confidential and must not be reproduced or disclosed to others without the prior written permission of VELLICHOR GROUP. The reproduction of this work in any
way is considered as counterfeiting and you are informed that any dissemination, copying or disclosure of the material contained herein, to include any attachments, in whole or in part, is strictly prohibited.
VELLICHOR A2 – Analysis & Assessment
VELLICHOR DAILY SECURITY SUMMARY 17 APRIL 2019
1. COUNTRY OVERVIEW
United Nations (UN) Special Representative of the Secretary-General (SRSG), Ghassan Salamé today condemned the
overnight shelling in the residential neighbourhood of Abu Salim (Hay Alaintisar), which according to medical sources
resulted in “scores of civilian deaths and injuries” included women and children – confirmed civilian casualties (April 16)
stand at 54 (14 dead and 40 wounded). The Defence and National Security Committee of the House of Representatives
(HoR), issued two statements today, one condemning last night’s shelling in Abu Salim, the second, condemning alleged
Turkish and Qatari interference in Libyan internal affairs including the “support of terrorism and extremism with weapons
and money”, using sea and airports in Tripoli, Misrata and Zuwara. The statement calls on UNSC and the international
community to address the issues and support the Libyan National Army (LNA) on their efforts against terrorist elements,
including the lifting of the arms embargo. The National Human Rights Commission (NHRC) in Libya issued a statement
today, condemning last night’s shelling in Abu Salim, which according to the Abu Salim Hospital, led to six deaths (including
two women) and 35 wounded (including three children). The NHRC holds all parties involved in the western region conflict
responsible for the incident, calling it a war crime and breach of international humanitarian law, urging the UNSC to intervene
to stop the violence. According to local media sources, a second British draft statement was vetoed today by Russia at a
UNSC consultative session on Libya. The President of the Presidential Council (PC), Fayez Al Sarraj, holds Field Marshal
Khalifa Haftar responsible for last night’s shelling in Abu Salim, threatening to present the case to the International Criminal
Court (ICC). President of the High Council of State (HCS), Khaled al-Mishri held a meeting with fellow officials and foreign
ambassadors today to discuss the latest political and military developments as well as the prospective National Conference.
President Mishri called on the ambassadors to help in taking measures to stop the violence in Tripoli and ensure the
withdrawal of the aggressor force to previously held positions.
President Sarraj met today with the Government of National Accord (GNA) Chief of Staff, Mohammed Al-Sharif to discuss
the current military situation in the wider Tripoli area and the status of GNA Military Region control on the different axes, as
well as the implementation of measures and arrangements to ensure the safety of citizens and the elimination of threats. At
approx. 1334hrs today, a localised source reported of no clashes on all axes including southern Tripoli outskirts and the
Warshefana area. Several alleged Misrata Air College airstrikes were conducted today, including in Gharyan near Military
Camp 8 in the Kamoon area; on Jendouba Prison, south-west of Gharyan; and the Bier Altota area, in Wadi Al-Rabie. No
casualties were reported with structural damages in Jendouba prison.
2. REGIONAL SUMMARIES
TRIPOLITANIA CYRENAICA FEZZAN
Main area of interest: Warshefana – Main area of interest: Benghazi – High Main area of interest: Sabha – The
Recent hostilities between GNA state of alert due to LNA western Sabha Military region announced a
Military Region and LNA forces with region operations with increased state of emergency on April 09 due to
fluid control. The area links LNA attention in light of the recent VBIED the monitoring of hostile elements in
Western Axis 1 to the Al-Swani Axis attack in Sidi Khalifah. Benghazi the wider Sabha area and the al-
via the Aziziyah axis and is a main Security Director Adel Abdulaziz Fuqaha terrorist attack (April 08/09).
entry/exit route into Tripoli as & conducted inspection tours in Increased static and mobile security
connection route to the western Benghazi during the last two nights. operations, as well as unifying
coastal area and the LNA supply line. communication amongst security
The Jalu Security Directorate is departments via the use of a single
Fuel supplies are reported to have continuing to increase numbers of wireless network, have been
arrived in Gharyan today under security personnel as part of the exemplary of increased security
instructions from the General implementation of the recently efforts.
Command of the LNA. introduced security plan.
The presence of hostile forces in the
The LNA 210th Battalion deployed into The Libyan Red Crescent retrieved southern region continues to result in
the western region today (unspecified four bodies from the al-Maghar area, overall increased alert levels, with
area of prospective operations). Derna on Monday April 15. The bodies limited offensive operations being
were subsequently handed over to the conducted to address the issue,
The Sabratha Sec. Dir. issued a competent authorities to complete possibly due to a lack of resources
warning today of illegal impersonation proceedings. Derna continues to be and manpower (LNA western
of criminal investigation officers affected by recent military operations operations), focusing rather on
including arrest and search actions. between the LNA and DPF. security consolidation.
VELLICHOR in CONFIDENCE Page | 1VELLICHOR A2 – Analysis & Assessment
3. COUNTRYWIDE INCIDENTS
LNA DEPLOYMENT BODY FIND
TRIPOLI AREA AL-MAGHAR
DERNA
THREAT ALERT
SABRATHA SECURITY
RESPONSE
LNA CONTROL JALU
AL-KASARAT
AREA
AIRSTRIKES
GHARYAN,
JENDOUBA, WADI
AL-RABIE,
AZIZIYAH, QASER
BIN GASHIR
4. SIGNIFICANT ACTIVITY
4.1 LNA Western Axes – Overview
AXIS 1:
Ash Shwayrif – (through Al
Qaryat) – (through Al-
Batma checkpoint) –
Mizdah – Garyan.
AXIS 2:
As Saddadah – Bani Waled -
Tarhuna
AXIS 3:
Hamada – (desert route) –
Alzintan – Alrujban – al
Watyah Airbase
AXIS 2
AXIS 1
NAVAL ROUTE:
AXIS 3
AL-JUFRA AIRBASE
VELLICHOR in CONFIDENCE Page | 2VELLICHOR A2 – Analysis & Assessment
4.2 LNA Control – Al-Kasarat, Ras Lafah, Arrabita
LNA CONTROL: RAS LAFAH
Localised sources report of
LNA control in Al-Kasarat, AZIZIYAH
Ras Lafah and Arrabita with
GNA Military Region forces AL-KASARAT
under Commander Usama
al-Juweili controlling the ARRABITA
main road direction
Aziziyah. LNA airstrikes
were reported this evening
(approx. 1800hrs) on
western areas of Aziziyah –
likely targeting present GNA
Military Region forces.
MAIN ROAD (DIRECTION
AZIZIYAH)
4.3 Shelling – Al-Afia Clinic
AL-AFIA CLINIC:
Localised sources report
(unconfirmed @ approx.
1800hrs) of alleged GNA
Military Region shelling of
the Al-Afia Clinic.
VELLICHOR in CONFIDENCE Page | 3VELLICHOR A2 – Analysis & Assessment
5. OUTLOOK
National political efforts are likely to have limited effects on military developments with divisions amongst the international
community expected to remain.
The western region conflict is likely to continue with the possible emergence of military activity in the western coastal area
and increasing operations in the Wasrhefana and Al-Swani areas.
Security in the south is likely to remain on high alert with the ongoing presence of hostile forces and the possibility of attacks.
6. RISK RATINGS
The current residual risk ratings countrywide for the main identified security risk, post implementation of the recommended
security controls as follows:
IMPACT
LOW MEDIUM HIGH VERY HIGH EXTREME
EXTREME
LIKELIHOOD
V HIGH TRAFFIC INCIDENTS ARMED CLASHES
HIGH CRIMINALITY KIDNAP
MEDIUM
LOW
7. MEDIA HIGHLIGHTS
Why Does France Support Libyan Warlord Khalifa Haftar's Assault on Tripoli? (Al Bawaba) – An eccentric warlord in
Libya has launched an assault on the country’s capital city, Tripoli, and the move could plunge the war-torn nation into
another bloody conflict.
https://www.albawaba.com/news/why-does-france-support-libyan-warlord-khalifa-haftars-assault-tripoli-1280560
8. SIGNIFICANT DATES & NATIONAL HOLIDAYS
DAY DATE EVENT COMMENTS
SUNDAY 17 February February 17th Revolution
WEDNESDAY 01 May Labour Day
WEDNESDAY 05 June Eid ul-Fitr End of Ramadan
THURSDAY 06 June Eid Al Fitr Holiday End of Ramadan
SUNDAY 11 August Arafat Day Date TBC. Arafat (Haj) Day
MONDAY 12 August Eid Al-Adha Date varies on Lunar cycle
TUESDAY 13 August Eid Al-Adha Holiday Date varies on Lunar cycle
WEDNESDAY 14 August Eid Al-Adha Holiday Date varies on Lunar cycle
SUNDAY 01 September Hijri New Year Islamic New Year
MONDAY 16 September Martyr’s Day
WEDNESDAY 23 October Liberation Day
SUNDAY 10 November Birthday of Prophet Muhammad
TUESDAY 24 December Independence Day
VELLICHOR in CONFIDENCE Page | 4VELLICHOR A2 – Analysis & Assessment
9. LIBYA 5 DAY WEATHER FORECAST
Day Description High / Low Precip Wind
TONIGHT 17 APR Clear - / 13° 10% E 18 km/h
THU 18 APR Sunny 25° / 14° 0% E 28 km/h
FRI 19 APR Mostly Cloudy 26° / 15° 0% ESE 35 km/h
SAT 20 APR Partly Cloudy / Wind 27° / 17° 0% ESE 37 km/h
SUN 21 APR AM Clouds / PM Sun 33° / 24° 0% SE 29 km/h
MON 22 APR Cloudy 33° / 20° 0% SSW 22 km/h
10. GENERAL SECURITY & SAFETY RECOMMENDATIONS
Political situation – The political situation in Libya remains fragile and the security situation remains dangerous and
unpredictable. Fighting can break out anywhere without warning, including between local militia groups, and many civilians
have been killed in outbreaks of conflict in residential areas.
There’s a high risk of civilians, including journalists, humanitarian and medical workers, being caught in indiscriminate
gunfire or shelling, including air strikes, in all areas where there is fighting. Political events may impact on the security
situation.
Reports of violence, reprisal killings, looting and human rights abuses continue across the country. If you are planning to
travel to Libya, you should monitor the local security situation carefully and use a licensed and reputable security provider,
you should never travel alone.
Crime – Ongoing conflict and the proliferation of armed militias has led to a rise in crime in most areas, including violent
robbery, carjacking and kidnapping. There’s an elevated risk of kidnap for ransom and arbitrary detention by local militias
throughout Libya, and a very high risk of criminal kidnap for ransom in Tripoli and coastal towns to the West of Tripoli.
Foreigners are increasingly targeted for kidnappings by both criminal and extremist groups.
Local travel – If you travel to Libya, you should regularly reassess your security arrangements and carefully plan your
movements. Take security advice from competent security experts before any travel within the country. Close security
protection is extremely important.
In the event of a further deterioration of the security situation, routes in and out of major cities and towns may become
blocked and airports closed or inaccessible at little or no notice. Don’t advertise your travel or other plans through social
media. Avoid routine, vary your travel routes, and keep a low profile at all times.
Road travel – Road travel within Libya remains highly dangerous. There continues to be a risk of being caught up in
outbreaks of hostilities. There’s also a high risk of carjacking and robbery. The coastal road between Zawiyah and Tripoli
presents an elevated risk. There’s a risk of striking unexploded ordnance off-road. Road traffic accidents are frequent and
often result in fatalities.
Chad and Niger have closed their border with Libya on several occasions in 2017 without warning, in response to the activity
of armed groups in the area. Tunisian border crossings are affected by frequent clashes along the coastal road in west
Libya and are often inaccessible.
Air travel – Airports across Libya can close without warming and airlines may change their flight schedule without notice.
Contact your airline or travel company for further information before travelling.
Due to a number of ongoing safety concerns, the European Union has agreed with the Libyan authorities to continue a
voluntary restriction on Libyan airlines flying into the EU. However, some Libyan airlines operate flights to the EU using
aircraft leased from other airlines.
VELLICHOR in CONFIDENCE Page | 5VELLICHOR A2 – Analysis & Assessment
We cannot offer advice on the safety of airlines. However, the International Air Transport Association publishes a list of
registered airlines that have been audited and found to meet a number of operational safety standards and recommended
practices. This list is not exhaustive and the absence of an airline from this list does not necessarily mean that it is unsafe.
VELLICHOR Disclaimer:
You are responsible for your own safety abroad and for making the decision to travel. The information contained in this
advisory is provided for information only. Whilst care is taken to ensure that this advisory is as up-to-date and accurate as
possible, it is provided on an "as is" basis without any representation or endorsement made and without warranty of any
kind, express or implied. VELLICHOR does not assume responsibility and shall not be liable for any damages in connection
to the advisory information provided.
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