WELCOME TO THE ROARING WORRYING TWENTIES - Thibaut Nguyen Trends & Prospective department - Ipsos
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WELCOME TO THE ROARING WORRYING TWENTIES Thibaut Nguyen Trends & Prospective department Trend Observer 2020 Presentation – business proposal
OUR BUSINESS: PROSPECTIVE RESEARCH
UNDERSTAND TODAY TO IMAGINE TOMORROW...
AND VICE VERSA
Collective frameworks
Regulations / laws
Have to
DYNAMICS
Scope of possibilities and
Aspirations, fears, Want to Able to impossibilities
ideals Resources, technologies, products
Backed by Ipsos’s other strengths, make decoding of the world / sectors actionable, restoring
awareness and autonomy to brands and companies in the actions they take.
© Ipsos | Trends Obs 2020
OUR APPROACH
Collect all existing intelligence on a subject, from all relevant sources.
Cross-analyze to clarify and gain perspective.
And transform information into knowledge adapted to the challenges you face, in order to clarify
and take action.
Highlight key global trends Highlight your specific issues
Prospective
Multi-client
knowledge
analyses,
mission
including
Ad hoc
© Ipsos | Trends Obs 2020
TREND OBSERVER PROSPECTIVE INTELLIGENCE
Our international radar THE DEPARTMENT’S TRENDS KNOWLEDGE
An ongoing history of modern times conducted
every year / year and a half, for the past 17 years.
12 trendsetters
Comparing our understanding of sectorial and per country
10-day online blog
social dynamics with intuition and feeling among
trendsetters in the countries setting the trends What I’m experiencing What I’m moving towards
What is inspiring me What I’m afraid of
What I’m doing What is motivating me
Using marketing expertise to find the clues to the
future.
Inspiring you, tactically, strategically,
professionally… personally. RESEARCH & MARKETING
ANALYSIS
© Ipsos | Trends Obs 2020
WHY TRENDOBS?
We provide you with personalized guidance, depending on your goals. For
example, our clients from previous Trend Obs used it to…
DEFINE THEMSELVES ILLUMINATE
Enrich / Challenge a brand platform, a Provide staff with a societal view,
positioning, a relational strategy inspire a seminar
CREATE SPEAK OUT
Initiate an innovation procedure, Direct communications strategy and
generate insights approaches
A few of our subscribers: SNCF / EDF / DANONE / COTY / KINGFISHER / GROUPE CAISSE DES DEPOTS / LA POSTE / SIG / INTERIALE /
NESTLE / ORANGE / CREDIT MUTUEL / AUCHAN / FRANCE TELEVISIONS / M6 / MOET HENNESSY / BEL / L’OREAL
© Ipsos | Trends Obs 2020
OPEN SUBSCRIPTION!
COMPLETE 2020 EDITION AVAILABLE ON 15 DECEMBER 2019
FLASH FORMULA – OP: €15K
INSPIRE FORMULA - OP + Connection
workshop: €18K
ACTIVATE FORMULA: guidance process
on request
Thibaut Nguyen Doan Pham Faustine Ducreu
Thibaut.nguyen@ipsos.com Doan-anh.pham@ipsos.com Faustine.ducreu@ipsos.com
© Ipsos | Trends Obs 2020
EXTRACTS
from the
PREVIEW
ROARING WORRYING TWENTIES
© Ipsos | Trends Obs 2020
TREND OBSERVER
PREVIOUSLY, IN TREND OBS
A REVIEW OF THE LAST 2 EDITIONS IS REQUIRED
TO UNDERSTAND WHAT WAS ALREADY GERMINATING
Released: Dec. 2016 Released: Sept. 2018
© Ipsos | Trends Obs 2020
SEASON 1: TREND OBS 2017
THE DESIRE TO ESCAPE FROM A HYPER-POLARIZED AND DESTABILIZING WORLD
- The first jabs at reason, onset of the post-truth era
- Beliefs and storytelling, social enclaves
- Seeking refuge in nature, the search for inspiring guides
Nature, guide
The first symptoms of
and refuge,
overheating, in a
spirituality
The gradual collapse paradoxical world
of a rational world
I only believe
what I see
I only see
what I Anxiety about the future
BELIEVE Versus past years... I would say
everything is getting worse.
© Ipsos | Trends Obs 2020
Serena, UK
SEASON 2: TREND OBS 2019
SIGNS OF A RECOVERY: DETERMINED OPTIMISM AND RENEWAL OF THE AMERICAN
MYTH 2.0 WITH ITS FANS… AND ITS CRITICS
“Well-meaning All-powerful tech Indiversalism:
winners” a desire for positive synthesis
AI
TECH
The underlying fear of a “monster” was already surfacing
© Ipsos | Trends Obs 2020WE CONCLUDE WITH AN UNCERTAIN OUTCOME
America 2.0, either a positive dynamic is
Things are encouraged: regulations, equity and social
getting better: responsibility outline a new type of growth in which
yes we can! technology profits a maximum of people.
?
Indiversalists → Appeasement, personal and collective innovation
TREND OBS 2019 → Alliances
TREND OBS 2017
Or this is an enchanted interlude in which the
positive synthesis becomes a tearing
apart
Otherworld travelers
→ Fragmentation and strengthening of community:
THE MULTIVERSALS
→ New search for meaning x anger (increased
Things aren’t getting populism)
better: let’s look for → Open / protectionist, moderate / extreme
other paths, fast!
polarization
© Ipsos | Trends Obs 2020WE TALKED OF A STRANGE PARALLEL WITH THE ROARING
TWENTIES (ANNÉES FOLLES)
WHILE SUSPECTING AN ENCHANTED INTERLUDE…
Dancing at the edge of the abyss: new roaring years ?
© Ipsos | Trends Obs 2020PERHAPS WE ARE THERE
The positive attitude
is struggling to gain traction
Indiversals
TREND OBS 2019
TREND OBS 2017
Explorers
Dark realism is on the rise
© Ipsos | Trends Obs 2020CONTEXT
After the positive signals of 2018, an increasing number
of alarmist signals are coloring the way trendsetters
feel: the world is rapidly becoming dark again, anxiety -
having scarcely had time to abate - is back with a bang.
An unprecedented Ecological emergency –
stock market crash in even more urgent than
2020? before
- More and more experts - IPCC forecasts have been
are predicting it raised
- … without knowing what - An increasing number of
will trigger it experts state that disaster is
inevitable and are talking in
terms of what will happens
afterwards
At this very moment, the The world is on the verge
world is living in chaos of chaos, civil war, world
from many points of view. war.
Alessia, Italy Magali, France
14 ‒ © Ipsos | Trends Obs 2020CONTEXT
AN EMERGENCY SITUATION THAT GOVERNING BODIES DON’T SEEM TO BE MANAGING,
OR ABLE TO MANAGE… OR ARE EVEN FANNING THE FLAMES!
Political conflicts, armed conflicts, states going bankrupt, isolationism:
Digital isolationism
the start of the end of a global world?
- Turkey and the Kurdish airstrikes
- Hong Kong
- South America
...at a time when topics requiring agreement on a planetary - Iran vs KSA
- China-US trade war…
scale are piling up: climate change, trade agreements,
migrant crises…
I would describe it as the epitomy of globalization. Trump，as the leader of the world’s largest
We are at the tipping point of advancing mankind country, he has been rebellious in dealing with
and going through a "Black Mirror-esque" path . China-US trade, which is harmful to the positive
Victor, Brazil, progressive image of the leader of a major country.
Sun, China
© Ipsos | Trends Obs 2020CONTEXT
THE POSITIVIST / INDIVERSALIST TREND HAS SPREAD,
BUT THE POWER OF “POSITIVE THINKING” HAS BEEN GREATLY REDUCED
1 MATERIAL INSECURITY: A lot of trendsetters have a sense of job insecurity,
the fear of a tomorrow that is increasingly dark, in an uncertain and fragile world
Rather than just do one job, I’d like to have eggs in
multiple baskets, so that if one string of income should
I believe this picture represents a lot about what
go, there will be others to make sure I can pay the bills.
Megan, UK the world means to a lot of people: big, scary and
with a lot of places and opportunities. It also can
mean loneliness. […] I identify with this picture
The economic crisis in my country severely limits my since I am graduating from College and have a
generation's choice for our future. I still don't know if I little perspective of what my life can be and who is
will be able to buy a house or give birth to children. I going to be in it, scary I know. Fernando, Brazil
don't know what to do, I just save money and hope that
something will change (at least regarding social
security). Eleonora, Italy
© Ipsos | Trends Obs 2020CONTEXT
THE NOTION OF INSECURITY HAS MOVED A NOTCH HIGHER
2 MENTAL INSECURITY: mental unrest is omnipresent in feedback, faced with a chaotic
and effervescent world that they are struggling to understand
In fact it’s increasingly
difficult to stay
mentally healthy, not
to sink into anxiety,
depression... As I said before, I think we
Loïs, France are living through a mass
hysteria phase. People are
going fucking crazy doing
things we thought we
would only see again in
history books. Fernando,
Brazil
© Ipsos | Trends Obs 2020SYMPTOMS
IT IS INCREASINGLY DIFFICULT TO STAY BALANCED MENTALLY
On a world scale, one out of six people
suffers from at least one mental disorder or
drug addiction, with anxiety ranking first.
In the US, major depression has According to calculations by the World
increased by 33% since 2013 (and by 47% Health Organization (WHO),
for generation Y). depression occupies first place in the
global "disease burden" and, by 2030,
In the past 30 days, 16,208 posts mentioning #anxiety, experts estimate that there will be three
#bipolarity and #depressed have been posted on Instagram. mental illnesses in the Top 5.
Source: Visibrain, November 2019 Source: Economic times
18 ‒ © Ipsos | Trends Obs 2020SYMPTOMS
EXTREME BEHAVIOURS ARE DEVELOPING
Extinctionist or extreme movements are
Depression and extremization in response to the A certain “fear” of being
blossoming
fear of disaster, automatically precipitating one (collapsology, no children, survivalists…) human is appearing
During its concerts, the band
Catastrophe asks the public to We’ve talked a lot about moving to
share their fears. The first one other planets, for a long while now,
this year was the end of the but I think that if we somehow
world. managed to go to another planet with
the same care we have for our world
now, we would destroy that planet
and its resources too. Anelise, Brazil
I see / read / feel gruesome things
that frighten and sadden me and
make me think that human beings
really deserve to become extinct.
Zombie explosion Ambra, Italy
I don't want to put a kid in a world I
don't know for how long will be
around, because I don't see a really
I have a little bunker in Brittany, if I ever bright future (call me skeptical) for the
need to flee. Mathilde, France world. Lucas, Brazil
19 ‒ © Ipsos | Trends Obs 2020SYMPTOMS
MADNESS AS A CONSEQUENCE, THEN AS A RESPONSE:
A WEAK SIGNAL… BUT FOR A LONGER PERIOD
New mental illnesses of modern times, linked to
excess and compulsion
Maybe these active shooters, these lone
gunmen are getting pushed away into the
fringe while others are finding ways to grow.
Maybe this so called interconnectedness is
not a real connection, amplifying the
© Ipsos | Trends Obs 2020 loneliness. Josh, USAISSUE
CONFRONTED WITH DISORDER…
Get some stability, security back
without losing your life, without losing your mind
© Ipsos | Trends Obs 2020ISSUE
A COMMON IDEAL:
A SHARED DESIRE FOR A POSITIVE REBOOT
Ecology is unstoppably on the rise, A desire for human connection too…
nature is bringing people together and for opposites to be reconciled
The future of the planet I wanted to not just read about We have to stand
really concerns me: environmental issues, but to Tomorrow, to make things change, it seems together for the
actually take some positive action essential to me to elaborate collective common good. I think
74% of French people agreed in to help. Additionally, I wanted to what bridges the gap
2018 (vs 58% in 2010). 'get back to nature' as it were projects with people around me. between going solo
Source : Ipsos Trends & Prospective, Observatoire
and have a bit of a technological
detox.
69% of French people agree with this. and togetherness is
empathy.
Source: Ipsos for E. Leclerc, 2017
des 4500, 2018
Megan, UK Zenab, UK
© Ipsos | Trends Obs 202023 ‒ © Ipsos | Trends Obs 2020
ISSUE
AN URGENT NEED FOR A SENSE OF SECURITY: TOWARDS POSITIVE “BUBBLES”
I kind of feel protected even though I'm scared, because I've created a safe space and a protection zone with my friends, which here in Brazil we call
"bubbles". So inside my bubble, with my friends, I gain a little hope that we can get through all of this. Lucas, Brazil
Benevolent / inoffensive bubbles Search for beauty, higher things
STUPID ANIMAL VIDEOS, because I feel Today I try to grasp
like regular pics of dogs is life enhancing for the beauty inside
me! Josh, USA and outside of my
world.
Ambra, Italy
I like Hayao Miyazaki, Disney = happiness!
especially his Totoro. Fernando, Brazil
This cartoon reminds me
Rollercoaster,
that childhood never
funfairs: it makes me
end.. Everybody loves his
feel like a kid again Music gives me imagination, allowing
childhood. It is always
Sama, USA me to know the unseen world.
summer there, and we
don't have any cloudy Wang, China Blue skin in fashion shows, Avatar style…
days or storms. Li, China
© Ipsos | Trends Obs 2020ISSUE
FIND A WAY TO THINK THROUGH COMPLEXITY AGAIN
Summoning up solid thinkers of the past,
reminding people of philosophy And find the knowledge-brokers 2.0 of the
present day
Makes me wonder about interesting
questions about life, the universe and
humanity, and I love to stay “occupied”
pondering about complex questions like
these. Rodrigo, Brazil
Marcus Aurelius of Stoic Philosophy (Josh, USA)
Mario Roso de Luna and other
theosophers (Rodrigo, Brazil) Marx […] affirms that large-scale industry and A performer (among a lot of things) and
agriculture destroys the “metabolic interaction explores the relationship between colonialism,
between man and the earth, in other words it black ancestry, feminism and memory.
Marx had already predicted prevents the return to the soil of the Paola, Brazil
the ecological crisis. Maybe it constituent elements consumed by man
would be a good idea to read […] To the extent that capitalism only
the classics again. Pauline,
develops “by simultaneously undermining the
France
original sources of all wealth: the earth and the
worker.”
(Das Kapital, book 1, Éd. Sociales, p. 565-567)
© Ipsos | Trends Obs 2020ISSUE
RESTORING ORDER
Find a code for living together again… … rules, with or without ethics
My ideal society would apply rules, convince people that rules are important to be
safe: honesty, fairness, and respect for laws. Daniele, Italy
Social credit system is the
same as the system big
companies run, just owned
by the government. No
matter if you like it or not, it
will run anyway. […] That’s
what I deserve, if I break the [About him tomorrow]:
law or social credit. The pirate represents the chase and
Wu, China seizing opportunities. They are free
because they don´t take orders from
anyone, but have a code of honor among
themselves. And when they see an
opportunity they always go for it!
(Brandon, USA) (Josh, USA) Alex, Brazil
© Ipsos | Trends Obs 2020ISSUE
TECH AS A 7TH SENSE
Tech is unavoidable, whether through resignation or Especially since it responds to everything,
enthusiasm: a shared “fabric”. Only the question of and even to mental disorders
“how and why” is up for debate.
In the next two years, our
20% science and technology will
develop faster, life and work
of human activity goes will be more convenient and
via the GAFA. efficient, and we will use
more and more digital
products and software, The latest Kate
I don’t like that Uber and Waze more and more convenient.
always know where I am… but it The relationship between The psy wave on
is the price I have to pay. Good people will be closer. Instagram
thing, I’m not a criminal. Alex, Wang, China
Brazil
Being connected is very important to me. I need - almost physically -
to be online all the time. I don't know what I can miss out, I just
don't want to miss anything. Victor, Brazil
© Ipsos | Trends Obs 2020ISSUES AND AN IDEAL IN COMMON
BUT DIFFERENT STRATEGIES!
DESPITE A SHARED IDEAL, DIVERGENCES OF OPINION ARE GETTING WIDER:
CONTRASTING DIAGNOSES OF THE CURRENT SITUATION, WHAT ACTION TO TAKE,
THE TYPE OF SOCIETY, THE PLACE OF EACH INDIVIDUAL…
The guy is talking to me about values, humanism, respect, I
The notions of respect, empathy, tolerance and even ecology have
think he’s really nice, and then the shock when I find out he’s pro
never been so split, and also so subject to multiple interpretations! Zemmour ! Ludo, France
They fight for respect… … and for rights
VS VS
I work in a start-up incubator based around “Take care”: that should be a
hive of people wanting to improve the life of others, so people who are
attentive, respectful. In everyday life, they couldn’t care less! Their values
are applied to their
© Ipsos | Trends Obsprofessional
2020 areas but not in everyday life… Magali,
FranceSTRATEGIES
3 WAYS TO ACHIEVE COHERENT THINKING AND
ACTION AS A MEANS TO SURVIVE CHAOS
WE’LL MANAGE
LET’S CHANGE
The captain will find a EVERYTHING
solution, we can help
Let’s take command!
him… or we can just
We can make decisions
dance!
later…
Let’s get a lifeboat and leave,
LET’S GIVE UP we’ll build what comes after
elsewhere.
© Ipsos | Trends Obs 2020STRATEGIES
3 DYNAMICS FOR LIFE, CONSUMPTION
CONCENTRATE ON YOUR OWN LITTLE STORY PLAY A PART IN THE COURSE OF HISTORY
Micro-worlds Solutionism / Prometheism Resistance
Some people cope with all this I Science and technology will continue to invent I cannot just stay doing nothing.
think, by just not thinking about it. the world of tomorrow, ecology will progress… If I don’t, I‘ll end up crazy.
Claire, UK Zhao, China Jenna, USA
© Ipsos | Trends Obs 2020CONSUMPTION:
INITIAL SYMPTOMS ARE APPEARING
Radicalism
Disobedience
In praise of madness
« Don’t ask yourself if your dreams are crazy, but if
they are crazy enough »
And solutionism!
© Ipsos | Trends Obs 2020A FEW INITIAL QUESTIONS FOR BRANDS
IN THE – NEW – ANNÉES FOLLES
How is the act of consuming impacted by
mental saturation? Trade-on Governing bodies are dismantling the
global, brands (and the web) are
What is the role of the brand within this
cultivating it: certain sectors / products
context?
are building the universal.
Fabric-brand
True stability Introspection Transitional brand
Confusion between progress and New value
equation Communicate today: what are the
technological innovation: is doing more
challenges when words are
always doing better in a world that is
interpreted in multiple ways, what
increasingly struggling to manage
are the strategies when information
“excess”?
is suspicious?
© Ipsos | Trends Obs 2020In the full version:
- Behaviors inherent in each trend, the associated
sectors, products, services
- The impact on consumption
- Consequences and areas for reflection for brands
© Ipsos | Trends Obs 2020Contact us
Thibaut Nguyen Doan Pham Faustine Ducreu
Thibaut.nguyen@ipsos.com Doan-anh.pham@ipsos.com Faustine.ducreu@ipsos.com
© Ipsos | Trends Obs 2020You can also read
