2020 BUDGET REVIEW: AMBITIOUS EXPENDITURE REDUCTIONS AND SOME TAX RELIEF - FIXED INCOME STRATEGY
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FEBRUARY 2020 2020 BUDGET REVIEW: AMBITIOUS EXPENDITURE REDUCTIONS AND SOME TAX RELIEF FIXED INCOME STRATEGY Reezwana Sumad Reezwanas@nedbank.co.za
WELCOME TO THE NCIB POST-BUDGET BREAKFAST 2020 GEORGE SOROS: “THE WORSE A SITUATION BECOMES, THE LESS IT TAKES TO TURN IT AROUND, AND THE BIGGER THE UPSIDE.” Reezwana Sumad Reezwanas@nedbank.co.za
ANALYST 2020 BUDGET – KEY TAKEAWAYS
• Wage bill is forecast to be reduced by R160bn
over the MTEF
• Baseline spending cuts of R101bn are
Analyst Details Expenditure announced
• Total consolidated expenditure undershoot
Reezwana Sumad amounts to R157bn if the above are achieved
Research Analyst
Tel: +27 11 537 4091
• Gross tax revenue estimates are R138bn
Email: reezwanas@nedbank.co.za lower over the forecast period
Revenue and growth • No new major tax hikes will be implemented,
while PIT relief is instituted by raising the tax
thresholds to account for inflation, due to
weak economy
Reezwana joined Nedbank via the Nedbank Capital Graduate
Programme in 2013 before moving into the Strategic Research team.
She currently specialises in macroeconomic and monetary policy
research, fiscal policy dynamics and fixed income strategy. She is
currently an active member of the SARB’s Economic Roundtable • Gross debt does not stabilise, despite
expenditure reductions and a narrower
Discussion. Reezwana holds a Bachelor of Business Science degree in Financing needs deficit.
Finance from the University of Kwa Zulu Natal. • Borrowing requirement set to increase over
the MTEF due to large debt redemptions
• Budget provides scope for the SARB to cut –
we forecast 2 cuts of 25bps each over the
The impact on next 12 months
monetary policy and • We anticipate a USDZAR weakening towards
R16/$ this year
the rand
CONFIDENTIAL | PAGE 3ECONOMIC OVERVIEW: AN ECONOMY FLIRTING WITH RECESSION…
But at least there’s a plan? Tax relief, expenditure cuts…
The evolution of real GDP growth forecasts in the Budget Still rolling forward business cycle lows
20
Real GDP forecasts - evolution SA nominal GDP growth
3 20 15 MTBPS 18
20 16 Bud get
16
2,5
20 16 MTBPS
14
20 17 Bud get
2 NT
12
20 17 MTBPS
forecast
%
20 18 Bud get 10
1,5
20 18 MTBPS 8
%
1 20 19 Bud get
6
20 19 MTBPS
4
0,5 Ne dba nk
Actual 2
3/1/19 94
9/1/19 95
6/1/19 96
3/1/19 97
9/1/19 98
6/1/19 99
3/1/20 00
9/1/20 01
6/1/20 02
3/1/20 03
9/1/20 04
6/1/20 05
3/1/20 06
9/1/20 07
6/1/20 08
3/1/20 09
9/1/20 10
6/1/20 11
3/1/20 12
9/1/20 13
6/1/20 14
3/1/20 15
9/1/20 16
6/1/20 17
3/1/20 18
9/1/20 19
12 /1 /1 994
12 /1 /1 997
12 /1 /2 000
12 /1 /2 003
12 /1 /2 006
12 /1 /2 009
12 /1 /2 012
12 /1 /2 015
12 /1 /2 018
0
20 20 Bud get
0f
1f
2f
3f
3
4
5
6
7
8
9
/1
/1
/1
/1
/1
/1
/1
/2
/2
/2
/2
12
13
14
15
16
17
18
19
20
21
22
20
20
20
20
20
20
20
20
20
20
20
SA nominal GDP growth - quarterly 4 quarter moving average
Fiscal year nominal GDP growth Actual (Full-year nominal GDP y/y)
A combination of lower inflation and real growth constrain nominal GDP growth
Table 1: Summary of key macroeconomic variables
2018/19a 2019/20e 2020/21e 2021/22e 2022/23e
2020 2019 2020 2020
2019 MTBPS Budget MTBPS Budget 2019 MTBPS Budget 2019 MTBPS 2020 Budget
Real GDP growth (%) 0,6 0,9 0,6 1,2 0,9 1,6 1,4 1,8 1,7
Nominal GDP growth (%) 4,7 5,9 4,8 6,1 5,3 6,6 6,1 6,6 6,4
GDP inflation (%) 4,6 4,8 4,2 4,9 4,4 4,9 4,6 4,8 4,6
Nominal GDP (Rbn) 4 922 5 211 5 157 5 530 5 428 5 893 5 759 6 283 6126
Revenue buoyancy 1,39 1,12 1,15 0,81 0,75 1,06 1,01 1,02 1,02
Green = National Treasury 2020 Budget review estimates
Grey = National Treasury 2019 MTBPS estimates
Source: National Treasury, Nedbank CIB Markets Research
CONFIDENTIAL | PAGE 4
Source: Nedbank CIB Markets Research, National Treasury; Stats SALOAD SHEDDING SCENARIOS
SA’s energy efficiency stalls, load shedding will hamper growth
Growth rates progressively worse as the intensity of load shedding rises The impact of load shedding on real GDP growth
Real GDP forecasts - evolution
2,5 Table 2: Summary of load shedding scenarios and impact on growth
20 19
Bud get
Cost per Full quarter of 1/3 quarter of
20 19 day of load load shedding load shedding
2
MTBPS
Impact on real GDP
growth shedding (90 days) (30 days) Baseline Scenario 1 Scenario 2
Ne dba nk
1,5 ba seli ne 2020/21: 0.9% 0.4% 0.6%
Ne dba nk -
Full-year growth forecast 2021/22: 1.2% 0.6% 0.9%
scen ario 1 2022/23: 1.5% 0.7% 1,1%
1
%
Ne dba nk - @ 4 hours per
scen ario 2
Stage 4 day -2.3bps -210bps -69bps
0,5 Actual @ 4 hours per
Stage 2 day -1.1bps -105bps -33bps
0 Source: Nedbank CIB Markets Research
0f
1f
2f
3f
6
7
8
9
/1
/1
/1
/1
/2
/2
/2
/2
15
16
17
18
19
20
21
22
20
20
20
20
20
20
20
20
Rand (in billions) lost per day for every 1000MW load shedding
(Stage 1) by Eskom Detail about scenarios:
1,4 q For scenario 1 we assume:
6 days of stage 4 load shedding per quarter in Q1, Q2 and Q4 in 2020
1,3
8 days of stage 4 load shedding per quarter in Q1, Q2 and Q4 in 2021
1,2 10 days of stage 4 load shedding per quarter in Q1, Q2 and Q4 in 2022
Rbn
1,1
q For scenario 2 we assume:
1
6 days of stage 2 load shedding per quarter in Q1, Q2 and Q4 in 2020
0,9 8 days of stage 2 load shedding per quarter in Q1, Q2 and Q4 in 2021
10 days of stage 2 load shedding per quarter in Q1, Q2 and Q4 in 2022
0,8
1985Q4
1988Q1
1990Q2
1992Q3
1994Q4
1997Q1
1999Q2
2001Q3
2003Q4
2006Q1
2008Q2
2010Q3
2012Q4
2015Q1
2017Q2
CONFIDENTIAL | PAGE 5
Source: Nedbank CIB Markets Research; National TreasuryREVENUE: TAX RELIEF FOR A WEAK ECONOMY
Revenue estimates are mainly the consequence of a lower nominal GDP growth forecast
PIT tax base is shrinking, tax burden per taxpayer has surged, hence necessitating some tax relief for individuals
Taxpayers assessed (Rand) Average tax per head
7 000 000 80 000
-23%
6 000 000 70 000
%
05
5 000 000 60 000 +1
4 000 000 50 000
3 000 000 40 000
2 000 000 30 000
20 000
1 000 000
10 000
-
-
8
9
0
1
2
3
4
5
6
7
8
9
/0
/0
/1
/1
/1
/1
/1
/1
/1
/1
/1
/1
2007/08
2008/09
2009/10
2010/11
2011/12
2012/13
2013/14
2014/15
2015/16
2016/17
2017/18
2018/19
07
08
09
10
11
12
13
14
15
16
17
18
20
20
20
20
20
20
20
20
20
20
20
20
SA’s tax burden is among the highest in the world Sources of revenue
35%
Tax revenue as a proportion of GDP Skills Property tax Non-tax revenue
30% Development 1% 3%
Trade levy Main budget Revenue
4% 1% 2020/21=R1.40tn
25%
20% Other taxes on
goods and PIT
15% services 37%
11%
10%
5%
Lithuania
Ireland
Russia
Israel
United States
Kazakhstan
Poland
France
Egypt
Denmark
Botswana
Turkey
United Kingdom
Spain
Greece
Chile
Brazil
Thailand
Ghana
Japan
Switzerland
Mexico
Mozambique
India
Italy
Australia
South Africa
Germany
Indonesia
China
Philippines
VAT
25%
CIT
18%
CONFIDENTIAL | PAGE 6
Source: Nedbank CIB Markets Research; National Treasury; Bloomberg, SARSREVENUE: TAX TRENDS ARE CONCERNING
Corporate profitability is lower, joblessness and lower wage growth limit PIT receipts
Growth in tax revenue has deteriorated, reductions in PIT (-R41bn), CIT (-R17bn), and VAT (-R25bn) receipts over the next three years
Corporate income tax expense* (Rbn) - semi-annual payments
PIT: FYTD growth
20 17
18 16
16 15
14 14
12
13
R bn
10
12
8
11
%
6
10
4
2 9
Aug '19
0 8
1/1/1997
1/1/1998
1/1/1999
1/1/2000
1/1/2001
1/1/2002
1/1/2003
1/1/2004
1/1/2005
1/1/2006
1/1/2007
1/1/2008
1/1/2009
1/1/2010
1/1/2011
1/1/2012
1/1/2013
1/1/2014
1/1/2015
1/1/2016
1/1/2017
1/1/2018
1/1/2019
7
6
5
*Companies on the JSE with at least 75% of their revenue from SA A M J J A S O N D J F M
2019/20 PIT growth FYTD y/y 7y avg 2018/19 2017/18
SA’s indirect taxes raises the tax burden even further
40 %
SA: Total tax (including indirect taxes)
35 % as a % of GDP
0,9%
2,1%
30 %
4,2%
25 %
4,3%
33,5%
20 %
5,3%
15 %
6,6%
10 %
10,2%
5%
0%
Perso nal Val ue-a dde d Oth er ta x Priva te Co rpora te Edu cation Priva te Total tax as a
in come tax tax med ical co sts in come tax secu rity % of GD P
CONFIDENTIAL | PAGE 7
Source: Nedbank CIB Markets Research; National Treasury; Stats SAWHERE ARE THE TAX RELIEF MEASURES CONCENTRATED?
Gross tax revenue estimates are R138bn lower over the forecast period
Tax relief: Tax measures:
qPIT tax brackets receive above-inflation increases qRestrict net interest expense deductions to 30% of
qTax-free threshold raised to R83,1k (from R79,0k) earnings for years of assessment commencing on or
qIncreases in the medical tax credit by 2,8% after 1 January 2021 to curtail profit-shifting
qTax free saving annual limit raised to R36k, from R33k qExcise duty on heated tobacco products at 75% of the
qZero transfer duty on property purchases under R1m cigarette excise rate – effective immediately
(previously R900k) qTaxation of e-cigarettes in 2021
qIncrease the cap on the exemption of foreign qGovernment will increase most excise duties by an
remuneration earned by South African tax residents amount of 4.4% for 2020/21, and by 6% in the case of
to R1.25 million per year from 1 March 2020. wine and 7.5% for pipe tobacco and cigars
qReview of export taxes to prevent unfair trade qIncrease in the general fuel levy by 16c/litre and the
practices RAF levy by 9c/litre from 1 April 2020
qGovernment intends to restructure the corporate qThe carbon tax rate will increase from R120 per tonne
income tax system over the medium term by of carbon dioxide equivalent to R127 per tonne of
broadening the base and reducing the rate. carbon dioxide equivalent
qIncrease the vehicle emissions tax rate for passenger
cars to R120/gram of carbon dioxide emissions/km
qIncrease the incandescent light bulb levy by R2 from
R8 to R10, effective 1 April 2020
qraise the plastic bag levy from 12 to 25 cents per bag
CONFIDENTIAL | PAGE 8 effective 1 April 2020EXPENDITURE: EFFORT MADE TO CUT SPENDING
Will the government over-promise and under-deliver?
SOE bail-outs remain a key risk to the fiscal trajectory; we believe there Debt service costs consume 15% of revenue, debt issuance amounts to
will be more to come 20% of revenue
30,0%
Table 3: Recent government bailouts amount to 6% of GDP – more in the pipeline As a % of Revenue
Rm 2012/13 2013/14 2014/15 2015/16 2016/17 2017/18 2018/19 2019/20 2020/21 2021/22 2022/23 25,0%
Eskom DSC
56 33 23
provisional 20,0%
000 000 000 Net L T+ST issu ance
% of Revenue
allocation
Eskom 15,0%
equity 23 49
contributio 000 000 10,0%
n
Eskom sub- 5,0%
loan 60
conversion 000 0,0%
to equity
0f
1f
2f
3f
8
9
0
1
2
3
4
5
6
7
8
9
/0
/0
/1
/1
/1
/1
/1
/1
/1
/1
/1
/1
/2
/2
/2
/2
07
08
09
10
11
12
13
14
15
16
17
18
19
20
21
22
SAA 10 10
20
20
20
20
20
20
20
20
20
20
20
20
20
20
20
20
5 000 5 500 4 300 1 800
000 300 Expenditure priorities
SAX 1 200 300 200
Main budget Expenditure
SAPO 650 3 700 2 900 475 501 528 2020/21=R1.78tn
PRASA 3 900 Interest payment
SANRAL 1 400 2 000 1 500 13%
DBSA 7 900
Denel 1 800 600
Compensation of
SABC 3 200 employees
34%
84 13 62 69 37 24
0 7 900 3 900 650 9 100
Total 400 700 275 101 828 800 Current transfers
and subsidies
% of GDP 0.00% 0.22% 0.10% 2.05% 0.01% 0.29% 0.18% 1,21% 1,27% 0,66% 0,40% 30%
Source: National Treasury, Nedbank CIB Markets Research
Red = additional bail-outs
Capital Goods and
spending services
and 14%
transfers
9%
CONFIDENTIAL | PAGE 9
Source: Nedbank CIB Markets Research; National TreasuryEXPENDITURE: AMBITIOUS WAGE BILL REDUCTION AND SERVICE
DELIVERY SPENDING CUTS
Spending reductions: Spending pressures:
qWage bill is forecast to be reduced by R160bn over qAn additional R17.2bn of funding is allocated to SOE’s
the MTEF, highly ambitious and will be fiercely over the next three years. A bulk of this goes to SAA
contested by trade unions in our view (R16.4bn). Total state support to SOEs accumulate to
qBaseline spending cuts of R101bn are announced R131bn over the MTEF.
could severely impact infrastructure and service qBaseline allocations of R111bn over the MTEF –
delivery projects R60bn in bail-outs to SOEs, R27bn upward revisions to
qSome of the largest baseline reductions are from: spending, and R24bn allocated to new and urgent
q Water service infrastructure grant programmes
q Health, public transport and education infrastructure qCompensation of employees continues to account for
q Municipal infrastructure grant
the largest portion of total spending, at 32.7% over
q Provincial roads maintenance grant
q Allocations to PRASA, DBSA, SASSA, SANRAL, social the medium term.
grants, police budget etc. qWe do not believe the wage bill reduction will be
q Goods and services procurement budgets implemented in full
qTotal consolidated expenditure undershoot amounts
to R157bn if the above are implemented
qDebt-service costs are R18bn lower over the MTEF,
but still growing at 12,3% p.a. – more than double
the pace of growth in all other spending categories
CONFIDENTIAL | PAGE 10
Source: Nedbank CIB Markets Research; National TreasuryDEBT ISSUANCE: CAN THE MARKET ABSORB MORE GOVERNMENT
DEBT?
SA’s (rolling 12m) debt issuance has risen by more than 50% But deficit declines sharply in the outer years
260 000 Consolidated budget deficit as a % of GDP forecasts - evolution
2015 MT BPS
240 000
-2,5 2016 Budget
220 000
2016 MT BPS
200 000
-3,5
180 000 2017 Budget
160 000 2017 MT BPS
-4,5
140 000 2018 Budget
120 000
%
-5,5 2018 MT BPS
100 000
2019 Budget
Jan-13
Jan-14
Jan-15
Jan-16
Jan-17
Jan-18
Jan-19
Jan-20
Apr-12
Oct-12
Apr-13
Oct-13
Apr-14
Oct-14
Apr-15
Oct-15
Apr-16
Oct-16
Apr-17
Oct-17
Apr-18
Oct-18
Apr-19
Oct-19
Jul-12
Jul-13
Jul-14
Jul-15
Jul-16
Jul-17
Jul-18
Jul-19
-6,5
2019 MT BPS
rolling 12m issuance
Nedbank CIB
No debt stabilisation even WITH spending cuts -7,5 forecast
Actual
0f
1f
2f
3f
3
4
5
6
7
8
9
/1
/1
/1
/1
/1
/1
/1
/2
/2
/2
/2
12
13
14
15
16
17
18
2015 MT BPS
19
20
21
22
Gross debt to GDP forecasts - evolution
20
20
20
20
20
20
20
2020 Budget
20
20
20
20
80
2016 Budget
75
2016 MT BPS
70 2017 Budget
65 2017 MT BPS
60 2018 Budget
2018 MT BPS
55
%
2019 Budget
50
2019 MT BPS
45
Nedbank CIB
40 forecast
Actual
0f
1f
2f
3f
3
4
5
6
7
8
9
/1
/1
/1
/1
/1
/1
/1
/2
/2
/2
/2
12
13
14
15
16
17
18
2020 Budget
19
20
21
22
20
20
20
20
20
20
20
20
20
20
20
CONFIDENTIAL | PAGE 11
Source: Nedbank CIB Markets Research; National Treasury; BloombergIMPLICATIONS FOR MONETARY POLICY AND THE RAND
We remain dovish on monetary policy and inflation
Increased likelihood of repo rate cuts as expenditures are trimmed Absent a ZAR slump, the SARB can cut rates again
0%
FRA probabilities of a 25bps move by the SARB
qExpenditure cuts, as opposed to raising taxes, will
-50%
leave more room for SARB to cut
-65%
-75%
qThis would be consistent with our view of another 2 x
-100%
25 bps interest rate cut by SARB over the next 12
Probability
-150%
-137% -145%
months.
-200%
-191% -199% -189%
qThis was an out-of-consensus view but seems now
-250% -233% -237% -225%
-253% -257%
-235%
more consensus, with the FRA market pricing another
-300%
1X4 2X5 3X6 4X7 5X8 6X9 7X10 8X11 9X12 12X15 15X18 18X21 21X24 2 cuts today.
Current Jan-20 meeting Nov-19 meeting
qInflation will likely remain muted in the absence of a
CPI likely to remain muted, close to 4,5%
sustained shock to the rand exchange rate.
5,5 SARB CPI forecasts
qWe forecast average CPI of 4,4% in 2020, and 4,7% in
5,0
5,0
4,9 2021.
4,5 4,6 4,7
4,7 qWith a ZAR shock, CPI could rise by 20bps relative to
4,5 4,5 4,6
4,5 4,5
4,1 4,3
4,4
our forecast
4,1 4,2
4,0
qOther upside risks to inflation are food prices (in the
3,8
3,5
Nedbank CIB Markets Research estimates
Bloomberg consensus event of a drought), and out-of-cycle increases in
NOV
JAN electricity tariffs
3,0
Q1:19F
Q2:19F
Q3:19F
Q4:19F
Q1:20F
Q2:20F
Q3:20F
Q4:20F
Q1:21F
Q2:21F
Q3:21F
Q4:21F
Q1:18A
Q2:18A
Q3:18A
Q4:18A
CONFIDENTIAL | PAGE 12
Source: Nedbank CIB Markets Research; National Treasury, SARBHOW DO WE THINK ABOUT A MOODY’S DOWNGRADE (AND WGBI)?
We see WGBI exclusion as transitory – bonds recover first, then rand
Reaction of bond yields and headline inflation to WGBI exclusion q SA may see bond sale and portfolio outflows of between $2bn
and $4bn.
100
80 q Our analysis suggest that there are likely to be new inflows
60 after a downgrade.
40
Bps
20 q We believe that after about 3 to 6 months net portfolio flows
0 will stabilise at pre-downgrade levels.
-20
-40 q As a result, on a net basis, foreign holdings may well remain
0 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14
Months
largely unchanged.
Change in repo rate Change in SA 10y bond yield Change in headline CPI
q We simulate an outflow/inflow scenario:
Reaction of USDZAR to WGBI exclusion
q Rand could depreciate towards 16.50 against USD, before a
2,5
Change in USDZAR recovery starts.
2,0
1,5 q The initial “shock” could send 10-year bond yield between 50
– 80 bps higher.
Rand
1,0
0,5
q Bond yields should recover after 2 months, while the rand is
0,0
at pre-downgrade levels after 4 months.
-0,5
0 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14
Months q The bias, in our view, is that markets recover faster than our
Source: Nedbank CIB Markets Research; National Treasury
estimates suggests.
CONFIDENTIAL | PAGE 13THANK YOU This report is personal to the recipient and any unauthorised use, redistribution, retransmission or reprinting of this report (whether by digital, mechanical or other means) is strictly prohibited. The information furnished in this publication, which information may include opinions, estimates, indicative rates, terms, price quotations and projections, reflects the judgment of the author(s) and the prevailing market conditions as at the date of this report, which judgment and conditions are subject to change without notice, modification or amendment. This publication does not necessarily reflect the opinion of Nedbank Limited (‘Nedbank’) or its ultimate holding companies or any direct or indirect subsidiary undertakings of such holding companies (its ‘Affiliates’). Information presented in this publication was obtained or derived from public sources that Nedbank believes are reliable but no representation or warranty, express or implied, is made as to its accuracy or completeness. Neither Nedbank nor its Affiliates (or their respective directors, employees, representatives and agents) accepts any responsibility or liability (whether in delict, contract or otherwise) for loss arising from the use of or reliance placed upon the material presented in this publication, except that this exclusion of liability does not apply to the extent that liability arises under specific statutes or regulations applicable to Nedbank or its Affiliates. This publication has been forwarded to you solely for information purposes only. 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