2021 COPSS AWARD WINNERS - AMSTATNEWSMay 2021 Issue #527 - American Statistical Association
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May 2021 • Issue #527
AMSTATNEWS
The Membership Magazine of the American Statistical Association • http://magazine.amstat.org
2021 COPSS
AWARD WINNERS
ALSO:
ASA, International Community Continue
to Decry Georgiou Persecution
Birth of an ASA Outreach Group:
The Origins of JEDI
AMSTAT NEWS
MAY 2021 • ISSUE #527
Executive Director
Ron Wasserstein: ron@amstat.org
Associate Executive Director and Director of Operations
Stephen Porzio: steve@amstat.org features
Senior Advisor for Statistics Communication and Media Innovation 3 President’s Corner
Regina Nuzzo: regina@amstat.org
5 ASA, International Community Continue to Decry
Director of Science Policy
Steve Pierson: pierson@amstat.org
Georgiou Persecution
Director of Strategic Initiatives and Outreach 8 What a Year! Practical Significance Celebrates Resilient
Donna LaLonde: donnal@amstat.org Class of 2021
Director of Education 9 Significance Launches Data Economy Series with April Issue
Rebecca Nichols: rebecca@amstat.org
10 CHANCE Highlights: Spring Issue Features Economic
Managing Editor Impact of COVID-19, Kullback’s Career, Sharing Data
Megan Murphy: megan@amstat.org
11 Forget March Madness! Students Test Probability Skills
Editor and Content Strategist with March Randomness
Val Nirala: val@amstat.org
12 My ASA Story: James Cochran
Advertising Manager
Joyce Narine: joyce@amstat.org 14 StatFest Back for 21st Year in 2021
Production Coordinators/Graphic Designers 15 Birth of an ASA Outreach Group: The Origins of JEDI
Olivia Brown: olivia@amstat.org
Megan Ruyle: meg@amstat.org 18 2021 COPSS Award Winners
Contributing Staff Members 23 A Story of COVID-19, Mentoring, and West Virginia
Kim Gilliam
columns
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interactions with
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APPposter.indd THE AMER
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Look inside this issue
for a poster celebrating Asian/
Pacific American Heritage Month! Biostatistics
Professor Wins
WSDS 2021 UPDATE
Nathan Mantel
The Women in Statistics and Data Award—Page 31
Science Conference is going virtual.
This conference, now taking place
October 6–8, 2021, celebrates and
member news
recognizes the contributions of women
in statistics and data science. It will bring together
leaders from academia, government, and industry;
professional statisticians and data scientists; and 31 People News
graduate students and postdocs. Join us from
anywhere. Early registration opens May 27. ww2. 34 Awards and Deadlines
amstat.org/meetings/wsds/2021/registration.cfm 36 Section • Chapter • Committee News
37 Professional Opportunities
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2 amstat news may 2021
president's corner
Using Our Superpowers to
Contribute to the Public Good
I
like to think of we statisticians as Jedi mas- tweaking. Think about the COVID vaccine rollout
ters of uncertainty. We find ways to garner as a program if you want a real-world example.
“The Force”—mathematical statistics—in Note that a formative evaluation (almost
subduing the dark side of uncertainty in data to always involving qualitative research) illustrates
achieve the common good: to gain insight and the rigorous version of this tweaking activity. In
knowledge. But we are not omnipotent. Our an ideal world, one would want the new program
superpowers are only as good as their underlying to mature and be running on all cylinders at the
assumptions, assumptions that are all too often time of a quantitative evaluation that involves
embraced with aplomb, yet cannot be proven. an RCT or quasi-experimental design. But that Photo by Errich
Petersen Photography
Some election polling in the past two presi- does not always happen—not by a long shot.
Rob Santos
dential elections has succumbed to the inad- It raises the question of what actually is being
equacies of underlying assumptions (specifically, tested. Formally testing a novice program may
likely voter models), in my humble opinion. not represent a fair assessment of its true impact
Some COVID models of infections and deaths or potency and lead to a missed opportunity to
performed well early on, only to falter as a result do good.
of real-time changes in underlying assump tions
tied to population behaviors (e.g., impact of lock
downs, travel bans, mask wearing).
When we are in our comfort zone and
(implicit and explicit) assumptions hold, statis- Our superpowers are only as good as their
ticians can appear invincible in their promises of
cogent statistical inference. And while the sage
words of our statistical Yoda, George Box, holds
underlying assumptions, assumptions that
true today that “all models are wrong, but some
are useful,” we statisticians can face a real chal- are all too often embraced with aplomb,
lenge knowing when some models are useful and
when they are not. Let’s discuss with an example. yet cannot be proven.
Consider a class of statistical investigations in
the policy arena—randomized controlled trials.
The rage over the past couple of decades has been
the adoption of randomized controlled trials (RCTs)
to demonstrate effectiveness of a given program in Then, there is the RCT itself. In the social
addressing a particular social problem. Pick any and health program evaluation world, RCTs are
program in housing, food insecurity, employment, pretty standard and randomly assign enrollees to
education, recidivism, policing, etc. The usual spon- the new treatment program, or to either nothing
sor-preferred approach is to conduct a demonstra- or “usual care” if some nominal forms of services
tion and then follow that with an RCT. Simple and are being offered. We, as statisticians, are typical-
rigorous, right? ly charged with developing power calculations to
Well …, I always advocate to respect the life detect some (often unspecified) level of impact
course of a program. Demonstration projects are that would be tantamount to a “successful” out-
necessarily formative in nature. Especially for a come. And then we are sent on our way until
first-time, nascent program, necessary adjustments it’s time to analyze the results and presumably
are made on the fly because you cannot possibly declare victory of some sort.
get everything “right” until you actually imple- The problem is that an RCT is defined by
ment and see what’s working or not and what needs assigning folks to a treatment or control group,
may 2021 amstat news 3
where the control is supposed to be the counter- measured impact of a program with respect to
factual. Alas, there never really exists a true coun- alternative, unknown other treatments compli-
terfactual—the absence of treatment and noth- cate the job of a statistician. You do need to care
ing else. The reason is that something else almost enough to scratch below the surface of develop-
always exists. If I am unemployed and fail to get ing power calculations or analyzing results and
into a program to help me get employed, you can exploring the underlying influences on impacts.
bet I will go find some other resources to help My illustration used RCTs for program evalu-
me secure a job. If my family experiences food ation to discuss underlying assumptions, but
insecurity and does not get into a program to help the lessons learned apply to most social science–
provide food, I will not stop my efforts until I related endeavors. This is also true for data sci-
find some way to get food on the table, and that ence projects and big data/AI projects. How do
may well be through some alternative program. we know we are measuring the right thing? And
The point is that, for social program evalua- is it being measured accurately? What assump-
tions, there is almost never a true counterfactual; tions implicitly undergird the validity of results
instead, RCTs typically measure the impact of a and associated inferences?
new program against some other unknown single We, as statisticians, are in an awesome posi-
treatment or combination of alternative treat- tion to help researchers think through these issues
ments. Specifically, what is actually being mea- and understand the limitations and strengths of
sured is a treatment program’s marginal impact the statistical inferences that flow from rigor-
against unspecified other treatments. ous research studies. I often use such opportu-
Such program evaluations typically do not nities to apply an equity lens to assess the cul-
measure efficacy against a true counterfac- tural relevance and appropriateness of all aspects
tual. That can wreak havoc on power calcula- of the design, from the underlying logic model
tions because notions of how much of a mea- to data-collection modes, measures of efficacy,
surable impact really defines “success” need to and intended analyses (and interpretations). The
be rethought and often lowered in magnitude, most stimulating discussions stem from vision-
which inevitably means a much larger trial and ing questions at the design stage when I ask, “If
more time and expense. the program works as intended, what would be
And then there is the reality of the environ- happening with the program staff, with the pro-
ment. RCTs can suggest efficacy via statistical gram participants, and in the community?” The
inference from a rigorous design, implementa- bottom line is that we can and should invoke our
tion, and analysis. But many social programs own critical thinking into our statistical work,
to help people in need are implemented at a whether we are a team member on a project or
local level using community-based organiza- the project’s “episodic” consultant. We best serve
tions (CBOs)—which could benefit much from our profession and our communities when we
us volunteering our services, by the way. Local are thoughtful and humble.
CBOs are not always as robust as we wish they Yes, I do believe in the power of The Force.
were. It is not uncommon for professional And I do believe statisticians can be superheroes.
staff—including senior staff such as program But, like everyone else, we are not infallible.
directors and CEOs/presidents—to have limited Let’s use our superpowers with grace, honor, and
tenures, leaving after a couple of years. The loss integrity to achieve the public good.
of a “program champion” due to normal staff
turnover can be devastating, even to the most
effective program.
I have personally seen this time and again
throughout my career. Thus, we see basic
assumptions such as the stability of staff infra-
structure supporting a program, the nature of the
counterfactual in an RCT, and the magnitude of
4 amstat news may 2021
ASA, International Community Continue
to Decry Georgiou Persecution
Steve Pierson, ASA Director of Science Policy, and Lynn Wilkinson, Friends of Greece
F
ollowing this winter’s Greek appeals court … It is also about the incentive structures for Greek
ruling finding former Greek chief statisti- official statisticians now and in the long term. What
cian Andreas Georgiou liable for slander, happens in this case, when it reaches the Greek
ASA leaders denounced the latest legal setback Supreme Court, will have repercussions in Greece
against Georgiou. “Persecuting a scientific govern- and in the wider EU, both for the rule of law and
ment official for doing his job with rigor and human rights, and for the soundness of policies
integrity to produce official statistics is deeply based on honest and reliable official statistics.”
concerning,” said ASA President Robert Santos. The slander charge pertains to a public state-
“Prosecuting Georgiou for stating what is wide- ment Georgiou made in his official role while
ly validated and fulfilling his official responsibili- fulfilling his responsibility to defend the fully vali-
ties is a travesty,” added ASA Executive Director dated official deficit and debt statistics for Greece Andreas Georgiou
Ron Wasserstein. produced under his leadership.
Echoing ASA Board statements, both ASA lead-
ers urged Greece to end its now 10-year persecution Background
of Georgiou and signal Greece’s commitment to “The game is over; we need serious statistical data.”
accurate and ethical government statistics by fully ~ Jean-Claude Juncker, President, Eurogroup,
exonerating him. 2005–2013
The international community also spoke out,
including through social media (see sidebar). In a “I am seriously concerned about significant statistical
March 29 opinion piece for the Greek newspaper discrepancies… [which] will require an open and deep
Kathimerini, prominent Greek economist Miranda investigation of what has happened.”
Xafa wrote, “Georgiou’s prosecution has done enor- Joaquin Almunia, Commissioner, EU Monetary Affairs,
mous damage to Greece’s image abroad and has 2004–2009
called into question the country’s ability to under-
stand that the huge fiscal imbalance was real, not a One of the conditions the European Union
conspiracy to impose austerity.” (EU) imposed upon Greece in the beginning of
John Bailer and John Pullinger, presidents of the 2010 during the early days of the Greek debt cri-
International Statistical Institute and International sis was significant reform of the statistical office.
Association for Official Statistics, respectively, In this context, further illustrated by the quotes
echoed the calls for Greece to end the persecu- above from 2009, Georgiou was recruited to head
tion of Georgiou and exonerate him, reiterating the recast national statistical office—the Hellenic
in a joint statement their “grave concern that these Statistical Authority (ELSTAT)—with a mission
continued prosecutions have damaged the scien- to modernize the production of official statistics,
tific integrity of highly regarded work addressing apply fully the EU rules for the production of these
Greece’s problematic fiscal statistical reporting from statistics, and ensure ELSTAT’s independence and
the 2000s.” They added that Georgiou’s “case has overall implementation of statistical ethics.
implications for the international statistical system, Georgiou’s priority when he took the helm of
and the rights of government statisticians to defend ELSTAT in August 2010 was to address concerns
their statistics,” saying that “[d]efending official repeatedly voiced by European and international
statistics … should not lead to legal prosecution.” partners about the credibility of previous Greek eco-
German data scientist Katharina Schueller in a nomic statistical figures. Therefore, one of Georgiou’s
March 2021 LinkedIn article wrote, “In this case, first responsibilities was to oversee a recalculation
not only the fate of a single statistician is at stake. of the public finance statistics for 2006–2009 that
Eurostat, the EU’s statistical office, could not validate
may 2021 amstat news 5
and which had been adjusted several times during Georgiou was found guilty of simple slander
the lead-up to the debt crisis. It was the fully correct- in criminal court. His first appeal of this decision
ed public finance figures produced under Georgiou’s failed, but the Greek Supreme Court annulled it
leadership that allowed Greece to continue to qualify for extraordinary legal errors. Simple slander, under
for the EU and International Monetary Fund (IMF) Greek law, means that even though the statements
loans given to help its struggling economy through a Georgiou made were true, he should not have made
tough fiscal adjustment process. them because they damaged the honor and reputa-
However, because of the austerity measures that tion of the plaintiff.
came with the loans, Georgiou quickly became a
scapegoat, blamed by leaders across the Greek politi- 2021 Civil Appeals Court Ruling
cal spectrum for the debt crisis, the full size of which on Slander
his work had uncovered. As the effects of the austeri- The latest ruling concerned the civil suit for simple
ty measures started to be felt, criminal investigations slander by the same plaintiff. In 2017, Georgiou was
were initiated against Georgiou in September 2011. ordered to pay damages of €10,000 to the plaintiff
Greece proceeded to prosecute Georgiou for doing and publish large parts of the convicting decision as
his job to produce accurate, complete, and current a public apology. After numerous delays, the appeals
public finance statistics, starting with charges of fal- court held its hearing on this case in September
HOW TO HELP
The ASA joins sifying the magnitude of the deficit and violation of 2020. In its 2021 decision, the appeals court reject-
international partners duty (for not allowing a vote on the statistics). ed Georgiou’s appeal and upheld the decision of the
in requesting your At the time the slander charges originated (2014), lower court, including damages of €10,000 (plus
support of Georgiou Georgiou had already been investigated twice on interest) and the public apology.
by posting to Georgiou said he plans to appeal the ruling to the
LinkedIn and Twitter
charges of falsifying the deficit and violating his
duty. Both investigations concluded there was no Greek Supreme Court, adding, “The stakes in this
urging Greece to
end its persecution evidence to support the charges and, both times, the case are not only personal for me. They are about fol-
of Georgiou and conclusion was ignored and another investigation lowing statistical principles in the various processes
exonerate him was initiated. Georgiou was about to face a third of producing and reporting official statistics, includ-
using the hashtags
investigation and, at this time, the deficit figures ing defending validated official statistics in the face
#AndreasGeorgiou and of destructive criticisms. They are also about incen-
#JusticeForGeorgiou. produced under Georgiou’s watch had been accept-
ed by Eurostat without reservations eight times in a tive structures for official statisticians in Greece now
row over a span of four years (2010–2014). and for the long term. Moreover, the outcome of this
Reacting to these continued, relentless attacks case can potentially indirectly affect the conditions
on the statistics produced under his leadership, for official statisticians anywhere in the world.”
Georgiou issued a strenuous public defense of the The Greek government has also funded a signifi-
integrity of these statistics. He also noted the lack of cant portion of the plaintiff ’s legal costs to pursue
recognized validity for the originally provided data the slander accusation against Georgiou. The law
for 2006–2009 by Eurostat and others and pointed under which these funds were granted was meant
out that no investigation of these statistics had ever to support official statisticians in their legal defense,
been conducted. This fact remains true to this day. and it is a perversion of the law that these provisions
Public comments about government statistics have been used for a prosecution.
are a standard practice around the world and in Public funding for the head of ELSTAT is part of a
accordance with the European Statistics Code of 2017 agreement between the European Commission,
Practice, as well as the UN Fundamental Principles Greece, and The Bank of Greece for that year’s dis-
of Official Statistics. Public comments are also bursement of €7.7 billion. The agreement held that
in accordance with one’s democratic right to free Greece must “legislate the State indemnification of
speech, including in Greece. the ELSTAT President—and other ELSTAT officials
Nevertheless, both criminal and civil charges acting upon his/her authority—against legal and
were instigated against Georgiou by the former other costs … incurred as a result of legal challenges/
(2006–2010) director of the national accounts divi- actions/proceedings taken or threatened against them
sion of the statistics office, who was responsible in relation to decisions made and actions taken …
for the production of the deficit and debt statistics pursuant to carrying out their official functions in
Eurostat could not validate. compliance with applicable provisions and rules,
6 amstat news may 2021
Influencers Speak Out
Following the latest legal setback for Georgiou, the international community questioned Greece’s
continued hounding of Georgiou on social media using the hashtags #AndreasGeorgiou and
#JusticeForGeorgiou. Among the scores of people who tweeted were the following significant influencers:
Olivier Blanchard, Robert Solow Professor of Nicholas Christakis, Sterling Professor of Social and
Economics Emeritus, MIT, 77,000 followers: Natural Science, Yale University, 181,000 followers:
Search #JusticeForGeorgiou to find tweets from other influencers.
statutory or otherwise.” The agreement referenced a narrative and persecution of an honest and highly
2012 Greek government commitment “to support capable official statistician as an injustice, a viola-
ELSTAT in upholding confidence in Greek statistics tion of Georgiou’s human rights, and a detriment to
and to defend them against any efforts to undermine Greece’s reputation and economy.”
their credibility.” His American lawyer, Robert Kyle, working on a
pro-bono basis, said in an email, “The persecution of
Perpetuation of False Narrative Mr. Georgiou is an affront to truth and government
In their statements, Santos and Wasserstein equated integrity that ultimately undermines the credibility
Greece’s continued prosecution of Georgiou with of Greek statistics. The Greek Government should
the perpetuation of a false narrative. As noted above, do everything in its power to right this wrong.”
the official statistics produced under Georgiou have This false narrative can still be found in Greek
been widely and repeatedly validated. Further, the media today (e.g., https://bit.ly/3uD2g34).
ELSTAT methods Georgiou put in place for pro-
ducing Greek official statistics are still in use. Human Rights Violations
While understanding the hardships of the Greek Besides the injustice of the prosecutions, the harm
people because of the austerity measures, Santos stat- to Greece’s reputation, and the undermining of
ed Georgiou “was unjustly cast as the scapegoat for official statistics, Greece’s treatment of Georgiou is
the austerity measures put in place with the EU and also a violation of Georgiou’s human rights. Indeed,
International Monetary Fund loans from the early both the 2019 and 2020 US State Department
2010s to help Greece’s then-struggling economy.” Country Reports on Human Rights Practices for
Referring to the broader impacts of the scape- Greece include several sentences about Georgiou.
goating of Georgiou, Santos said, the ASA is “deep- The language for both is similar, with the 2019 lan-
ly concerned that a false narrative has damaged the guage excerpted here:
scientific integrity of highly regarded work address-
ing Greece’s problematic fiscal statistical reporting Observers reported the judiciary was at times
from the 2000s.” inefficient and sometimes subject to influence
Wasserstein reiterated the point, saying, “The and corruption. … On February 28, the Council
ASA sees the continued perpetration of a false of Appeals cleared, for the third time, the former
may 2021 amstat news 7
head of the Hellenic Statistical Authority, Andreas
Georgiou, of charges that he falsified 2009 budget What a Year! Practical
data to justify Greece’s first international bailout. The
Supreme Court prosecutor had twice revoked his
Significance Celebrates
acquittal by the Council of Appeals. … EU officials
repeatedly denounced Georgiou’s prosecution, reaf-
Resilient Class of 2021
firming confidence in the reliability and accuracy of Kim Gilliam, ASA Marketing and Communications
data produced by the country’s statistical authority Coordinator
A
under his leadership.
s the COVID-19 pandemic stormed on, the
Rebecca Everly, director of the Committee Class of 2021 and its teachers had a year no
on Human Rights of the National Academies of one could have imag-
Sciences, Engineering, and Medicine, said, “We are ined. Adaptable, determined,
deeply concerned that Dr. Andreas Georgiou has and resilient are just a few
faced and continues to face legal proceedings solely adjectives often attributed to
MORE ONLINE students and educators this
To learn more,
for carrying out his scientific work and responsi-
bilities during his five-year tenure as president of year. For our May podcast,
visit The Friends
of Greece website: Greece’s national statistics office. Dr. Georgiou is a hosts Donna LaLonde and Ron
https://bit.ly/2QIod22. deeply respected scientist whose service to Greece Wasserstein welcome to the
should be supported, not targeted.” show three students earning Yuyu (Ruby) Chen
degrees this month and two
Praise for Georgiou [very busy!] faculty members.
While also speaking against the latest ruling, The following degree can-
Wasserstein thanked and praised Georgiou. “I’m didates reflect on this unprece-
sorry for all Georgiou has had to endure, but I dented year, share their favorite
also commend, and am grateful for, his defense classes and experiences, offer
of official statistics. With his perseverance and advice for academic success,
strength, he is an exemplary embodiment of the and tell us what’s next for them:
commitment of an official statistician to produce • Yuyu (Ruby) Chen,
the most reliable, impartial data possible.” Emma Godfrey
Master of Science,
The praise echoed a 2018 commendation Biostatistics, New York
from six statistical societies for Georgiou’s “com- University
petency and strength in the face of adversity, his
commitment to the production of quality and • Emma Godfrey, Bachelor
trustworthiness of official statistics and his advo- of Arts, Mathematics,
cacy for the improvement, integrity and inde- Pomona College
pendence of official statistics.” • Sallie M. Yassin, Master
The ELSTAT data produced under Georgiou of Science, Biostatistics,
and their specific methodology has been checked New York University Sallie M. Yassin
and accepted 22 times since 2010 by Eurostat Additionally, Miles Ott, associate professor of
in its semiannual quality assurance procedures statistical and data sciences at Smith College, and
provided for in European law. In addition, the Amy Hogan, who teaches mathematics and statistics
statistical processes and ethics characterizing the at Brooklyn Technical High School, (both self-pro-
production and dissemination of these official claimed “Smithies”) commiserate over the challenges
statistics under Georgiou’s watch are considered of teaching during the pandemic—what’s worked,
by the international statistical community to strategies they’ll use going forward, and advice they
be fully consistent with international statistical traditionally share with their graduates. Good stuff!
principles and ethics. Listen to Episode 5 of Practical Significance as these
For more information about Georgiou’s bat- ASA members relay how they ‘Zoomed’ through 2021
tle for justice, contact ASA Director of Science and join us in celebrating this milestone moment for
Policy Steve Pierson at pierson@amstat.org. n Ruby, Sallie, and Emma. Follow Practical Significance
on Twitter @TheASAPodcast. n
8 amstat news may 2021Significance Launches Data
Economy Series with April Issue
Brian Tarran, Significance Editor
W
e live in a “data-driven world,” an “age of are timely, relevant, and reliable … We conclude
analytics” in which “data is the new oil.” that official statistics systems should be broadened.
These are phrases we’ve all become They should generate quality public statistics that
familiar with—and perhaps grown tired of hear- can be used to help get answers
ing—because of their repeat- to the many urgent questions
ed use. Less frequently heard, about society and how we can
though, is the story of how we sustainably improve our lives
got to where we are now— and livelihoods.”
how the “data economy” came Several other articles tackle
to be. The April issue of COVID-related issues. In the
Significance begins a new four- Notebook section, for exam-
part series that tells this story, ple, Harrison Schramm,
starting with the birth of cus- Isaac Rubin, and Norah
tomer insight. Schramm investigate the
This “history of the data econ- impact distance learning
omy” is an idea the Significance may have had on the grades
staff have been developing for a of students at a California
while—to tell the story of how high school. Meanwhile,
the business of buying, selling, and in the StatsComm section,
profiting from data has developed Kevin McConway and
over time and consider where it David Spiegelhalter offer
might go next. It’s a story that spans tips to statisticians communicat-
200 years and features an eclectic ing through the media—a valuable and timely set
cast of characters, from advertisers and social scien- of advice.
tists to market researchers and statisticians. Of course, Significance is a publication in which
Elsewhere in the April issue, Robert Matthews statisticians and data scientists can hone their com-
reflects on the American Statistical Association’s munication skills. The aim of the magazine is to
2016 p-value statement, asking what—if any- demonstrate in an entertaining, thought-provoking,
thing—has it achieved? In the five years since the and nontechnical way the practical use of statistics
statement’s release, there have been debates and dis- in all walks of life and to show informatively and
agreements, editorials and symposia, and a plethora authoritatively how statistics benefit society. Almost
of ideas about how science could be changed for the all articles are written by statisticians eager to share
better. But, argues Matthews, “The reality is that, their passion for statistics and explain their work—
in terms of changing research practice, the ASA or the work of others—in a way that is accessible
statement has achieved little. Yet the need for such and relatable to readers of different backgrounds.
change has never been greater.” If you have an article idea you would like to dis-
In the Perspectives section, Paul Allin and David cuss, send an email to significance@rss.org.uk. You
J. Hand make the case for change of a different sort, can also review notes for contributors at significance
arguing that as societies look to “build back better” magazine.com/contribute.
in the wake of coronavirus, official statistics should The April issue of Significance is available in
take center change. “The COVID-19 pandemic is a print and online. ASA members can read the maga-
testing time for statistics,” they write. “It is showing zine for free online by following the instructions at
that single sources struggle to provide statistics that significancemagazine.com/654. n
may 2021 amstat news 9CHANCE HIGHLIGHTS
Spring Issue Features Economic Impact of
COVID-19, Kullback’s Career, Sharing Data
Amanda Peterson-Plunkett, CHANCE Executive Editor
I
t has now been more than a year since SARS-
CoV-2 began spreading across the globe. JSM 2021 Session
Researchers understand the virus better, and
CHANCE will host a session at the Joint
vaccines are being distributed—but what do we
know about the effects the pandemic has had on Statistical Meetings in August, titled
our economy and society? Authors Jon T., Nicholas “The Stories of CHANCE: Frontiersman,
B., and Thomas Middleton study this question as Exoneree, Player, Spy.”
it pertains to the United Kingdom in the article,
“Modeling the Economic and Societal Impact of
Non-Pharmaceutical Interventions During the to minimize the effect of these extraneous factors in
COVID-19 Pandemic.” “Toward Reducing the Possibility of False Positive
Keeping with the topic of COVID-19, we Results in Epidemiologic Studies of Traffic Crashes.”
look at an application of Benford’s law, a tool that Listed as one of the 25 most-dangerous jobs
has successfully been used in applications such in the US (based on 2019 data from the Bureau
as detecting financial fraud and altering digital of Labor Statistics Census of Fatal Occupational
images. In “Benford’s Law and COVID-19 Data,” Injuries), police work is not for the faint of heart.
authors Chase Marchand and Dalton Maahs use it In “Police Officers Killed in the Line of Duty: A
to analyze reported COVID-19 cases. Correspondence Analysis of Circumstances and
In “The Secret Career of Solomon Kullback,” his- Time of Day,” Terry Allen investigates whether cer-
torian Brenda McIntire details the US intelligence tain types of police activities are more dangerous at
career of one of the developers of the Kullback- specific times of day.
MORE ONLINE Leibler divergence. If you are intrigued by this arti- Moved by the 2018 attack on the Pittsburgh Tree
Follow CHANCE cle, you may also enjoy the recent PBS special The of Life synagogue, Howard Wainer and Richard
on Twitter Codebreaker featuring one of Kullback and Leibler’s Feinberg analyze data associated with hate crimes.
@ChanceStatsMag.
Submit articles at
contemporaries, Elizabeth Friedman. In the Visual Revelations column article, “Looking
https://bit.ly/39TsMxd. Societal benefits abound from sharing data and at Reported Hate Crimes,” they zero in on statistics
machine learning models built on those data, but reported in New Jersey due to its uniqueness in hav-
data have the potential to be biased, resulting in ing complete data going as far back as 1990.
biased models. What are the possible repercussions? In The Big Picture column article, “The Shape
Who should be held accountable? What methods of Things: Topological Data Analysis,” Nicole
can be employed to avoid data bias? Charna Parkey Lazar and Hyunnam Ryu demonstrate the use of
tackles these questions in “Who Is Accountable for topological techniques for exploratory data analy-
Data Bias?” sis. If you work with complex data, this may be a
In the February issue of CHANCE, we included technique to add to your toolbox.
an article about the connection between road famil- Escape rooms aren’t just a social activity to
iarity and traffic accidents. In this issue, authors enjoy with your friends. They can also be used in
Adam Palayew, Sam Harper, and James Hanley the classroom to reinforce new concepts. In the
consider a different angle on the topic of traffic Taking a Chance in the Classroom column article,
accidents. They note the study of factors that influ- “The Data Science Instructional Escape Room: A
ence accidents may be complicated by factors such Successful Experiment,” authors Valerie Nelson
as the season, day of the week, and time of day of and Jason Crea explain their implementation of an
the accident. The authors evaluate various methods escape room for a data science course. n
10 amstat news may 2021Forget March Madness! Students Test
Probability Skills with March Randomness
T
his year, the ASA’s outreach campaign
ThisIsStatistics launched a new contest March Randomness Winners
for its annual spring challenge: March Throughout the month, 214 student
Randomness, a month-long competition that teams competed with peers around
encouraged middle- and high-school students
the world. After 16 rounds of 24-hour
and college undergraduates to test their proba-
bility intuition skills. exercises over four weeks, the winning
Inspired by the Borel board game, the inau- teams are as follows:
gural March Randomness challenge invited stu- BEST PRE-COLLEGE TEAMS
dents to predict outcomes of
daily probability experi- FIRST PLACE: A Fraction Ahead, with
ments. Every Monday Alaina Smith and Delfina Szigethy of
through Thursday Mt. Lebanon High School, Pittsburgh,
throughout March, Pennsylvania
ThisIsStatistics
SECOND PLACE: Elidia R, with Elidia Reyes
posed a new experi-
ment and asked stu- of Wayne High School, Fort Wayne, Indiana
dents to predict the THIRD PLACE: Mathster’s Stupefying 1
outcome. For exam- Stars, with Molly, Miles, Stella, Trevor,
ple, “Flip a coin four Roman, Talon, Sam, Patrick, Myles,
times; will you get a head Beckley, Timothy, Will, Sarah, Reece,
exactly once?”
Laurel, Macy, and Sarah of Mariemont
To keep things interesting, ThisIsStatistics
Junior High School, Fairfax, Ohio
also asked the students to back up their predic-
tion with a wager from their stash of “StatCoins.” BEST UNDERGRADUATE TEAMS
After the betting window closed the next day,
FIRST PLACE:
a celebrity statistician conducted the challenge
experiment and revealed the official outcome on SiegeChauffantDansLeMercobenz, with
video. Teams watched their fortunes shrink and Scott McGuigan, Alexis Morel, Clément
grow on the leaderboard as they competed with Verdier, and Chloé Le Chevalier of
peers in their school or division—or even just Université Grenoble Alpes,
against themselves. Grenoble, France
Celebrity statisticians included Christoforos
SECOND PLACE: Rah
Anagnostopoulos from Borel, Lucy D’Agostino
McGowan, Ellie Murray, Chris Franklin, Rob Prof. Aliyev!, with Yang
Santos, Wendy Martinez, John Bailer, Brittany Hsia, Nicolas Shier, and
Greene, Glen Colopy, Kathy Ensor, Roger Zachary Branner of
Peng, Jenny Green, Emily Butler, Eunice Virginia Military Institute,
Kim, Eric Laber, Claire Bowen, and Ron Lexington City, Virginia
Wasserstein. Watch them bring their personal
THIRD PLACE: Rambler,
style to the probability experiments at https://bit.
ly/3wNzYEP. with Charles Hwang of Loyola
To learn more about March Randomness, University, Chicago, Illinois
visit https://thisisstatistics.org/march-randomness. n
may 2021 amstat news 11MY ASA STORY
James Cochran
ASSOCIATE DEAN
AND PROFESSOR
I
am the Rogers-Spivey Fellow and Professor
of Statistics at the University of Alabama. I
am also the associate dean for research for
my college. My research spans theory, methodol-
ogy, and application.
I joined the American Statistical Association
soon after joining the faculty at Wright State James Cochran is associate dean for research, Rogers-
University (WSU). My primary field of study to Spivey fellow, and professor of statistics at the University
that point had been economics, but I was hired to of Alabama. He is also the editor of the Encyclopedia of
teach introductory statistics, operations research, Operations Research and Management Science.
and calculus to undergraduate business majors and
MBA students. society. I also saw how the ASA could serve as a tool
Although my education had prepared me well in pursuing my career goals (such as working with
for using statistics, I did not feel prepared to teach colleagues in developing nations to resolve societal
the subject and I joined the ASA in the hope of issues). I became involved with the ASA in several
developing a better understanding of statistical ways: I have served on and chaired various ASA com-
concepts and learning approaches to teaching mittees; served as an officer of various ASA sections;
them effectively. and been involved with ASA public outreach, scien-
tific freedom, human rights, and advocacy efforts.
My ASA experiences and the friends I have
made through these experiences have been high-
lights of my academic career, and selecting a single
… the opportunity to help establish Statistics Without experience from these experiences is extremely
difficult. However, if pressed, I would select the
Borders [is] my most memorable and meaningful opportunity to help establish Statistics Without
Borders (SWB) as my most memorable and mean-
experience as an ASA member. ingful experience as an ASA member.
After organizing workshops on making intro-
ductory statistics education more engaging and
encouraging the application of statistics to soci-
etal issues in developing nations for several years, I
I attended several local and regional ASA events began thinking about how to create a mechanism
and quickly learned about all the ASA had to offer. for ASA members to get involved in the application
After I left WSU to become the director of analytic of statistics to societal issues in developing nations.
services for a large marketing research firm and I eventually discussed my ideas with ASA
later entered the University of Cincinnati to pur- Executive Director Ron Wasserstein, who put me
sue my PhD (in statistics and operations research), in touch with a group of three colleagues—Fritz
I maintained my ASA membership. Scheuren, Gary Shapiro, and Steve Pierson (ASA
After earning my PhD, I became active in the ASA Director of Science Policy)—who had begun
because I saw how the ASA helped its members and working on a similar concept. These colleagues
12 amstat news may 2021Photo courtesy of James Cochran
James Cochran goes on a lion walk in South Africa.
quickly invited me to join their effort as a co-chair
with Gary.
In shortly over a decade, SWB has become inter-
nationally recognized and grown to several hun-
dred capable and earnest volunteers who take on
dozens of projects each year—and has never accept-
ed payment or remuneration of any kind (100%
of all donations are used for SWB projects and
are never used for payments or reimbursements).
You can learn more about SWB at the organi-
zation’s website: https://swb.wildapricot.org. There,
you can find out about past SWB projects, suggest
potential clients and projects, and volunteer (you
do not have to be an ASA member to join SWB).
The work of this organization’s volunteers is
uplifting and inspiring; whenever I feel anxious
about the myriad political and societal problems
we are facing, I visit the SWB website for affirma-
tion of the basic goodness of people.
In each of the past 36 years, I have reflect-
ed on the value of my ASA membership when
I receive my notice to renew. And every year, I
quickly conclude that my ASA membership is a
tremendous bargain. Without any deliberation, I Photo courtesy of James Cochran
promptly renew. n James Cochran ‘volunteers’ to participate in a python Sukuma dance.
may 2021 amstat news 13Photo courtesy of The University of Texas Health Science Center at Houston
Hadley Wickham, from RStudio, speaks at StatFest 2019.
StatFest Back for 21st Year in 2021
F
inding people like yourself along the career science. Additionally, StatFest will feature opportu-
path you desire can be intimidating during nities for attendees to network with other attendees
the first years in higher education, especially and connect with institutions from academia, indus-
when the household names in those places do not try, and the nonprofit sector.
seem to have paths that match yours. It is common StatFest is an ongoing initiative of the American
to be unsure where your vague major fits into grad- Statistical Association through its Committee on
uate programs or the job market. However, answers Minorities in Statistics (CoMiS). The committee
might be closer than you think. seeks to foster participation in statistics and data
StatFest 2021 is a free conference over two half- science by historically under-represented minorities
days aimed at encouraging BIPOC (Black, indig- and focuses much of its effort on two key programs:
enous, people of color) undergraduates who have StatFest, a pathway program, and the Diversity
quantitative interests to pursue careers or graduate Mentoring Program, an early-career success program.
studies in the statistical and data sciences. StatFest is StatFest 2020 attendees appreciated the welcom-
currently in its 21st year and will be held virtually for ing and informative environment; opportunity to
the second year due to the COVID-19 pandemic. hear people’s stories and experiences; and ability to
This year’s event will take place September 18–19. connect with graduate program directors, professors,
During the conference, students will be inspired and graduate students from many campuses, based
by a keynote address highlighting the speaker’s on feedback from the post-event survey.
career trajectory and informed by engaging presen- While the conference is free, registration is
tations and discussions that explore opportunities in required. Visit the StatFest website at https://bit.
statistics and data science across government, aca- ly/2RkcEON for more information and to register.
demia, industry, and the nonprofit sector. Students StatFest is made possible through the financial
will also have an opportunity to engage in a candid support of the ASA and several academic and indus-
Q&A with a graduate student panel that explores trial sponsors. If you have questions about StatFest,
the life of a graduate student, navigating the appli- contact StatFest 2021 co-chairs Brittney Bailey
cation process, and the steps to thriving as an aspir- at bebailey@amherst.edu or Therri Usher at therri.
ing researcher. At the same time, professionals will usher@fda.hhs.gov. If your organization is interest-
come together to address issues related to promoting ed in supporting the event, contact Adrian Coles,
diversity, equity, and inclusion in statistics and data CoMiS chair, at adrian.coles@lilly.com. n
14 amstat news may 2021Birth of an ASA Outreach Group:
The Origins of JEDI
Jana Asher, Slippery Rock University, and Cathy Furlong, Statistics Without Borders
R
eaders of Amstat News are undoubtedly
aware of the myriad communities operating Working Group Members
under the umbrella of the American
Statistical Association: Brittany Terese Fasy, Leslie McClure, Mark
Daniel Ward, Gabriel Huerta, Renee Moore,
• Committees – work on initiatives important
to the strategic goal of the ASA or the profes- Monica Jackson, David Hunter, Jo Hardin,
sional visibility of the ASA Gretchen Martinet, Gretchen Falk, Julia
Sharp, Rebecca Nichols (ASA staff ), Donna
• Sections – focus on a specific methodology or LaLonde (ASA staff )
application of statistical science
• Interest Groups – serve a similar purpose as
sections but are less formal In January of 2019, the working group began with
• Chapters – serve members of specific regions a broad charge: to identify mechanisms to support
diversity initiatives led by ASA members. Two main
• Student Chapters – operate within a college initiatives arose out of their early discussion: 1) to
or university develop a consortium with other professional societies
• Outreach Groups – support a common inter- that would focus on increasing diversity and 2) to cre-
est of ASA members that is not well addressed ate a single repository of opportunities—a “one-stop
by the formal structure for a section or a shop” for aspiring statisticians from all backgrounds.
chapter The consortium idea was a recognition that
many existing organizations in mathematics and
However, many readers probably do not know
statistics and across the scientific fields already had
the work involved to establish one of these groups.
initiatives related to diversity, equity, and inclusion.
The story of the Justice, Equality, Diversity, and
They focused original outreach on three primary
Inclusion Outreach Group (JEDI) begins with
organizations: Math Alliance (mathalliance.org),
Karen Kafadar during her year as ASA president-
National Association of Mathematicians (NAM,
elect in 2018. By tradition, each ASA president
www.nam-math.org), and Society for Advancement
establishes several presidential initiatives, and
of Chicanos/Hispanics and Native Americans
Kafadar wished to build her initiatives in the spirit
in Science (SACNAS, sacnas.org). At the time,
of Barry Nussbaum’s successful presidential initia-
SACNAS was going through a leadership change,
tive to engage Asian statisticians through Asian
but representatives from the Math Alliance and
statistical societies. Kafadar knew she wanted to
NAM met with the task force in November of 2019
increase diversity within the ASA and asked Julia
to begin discussing how to make such a consortium
Sharp to lead the initiative in late 2018.
a reality.
Sharp, who was finishing her term on the ASA
The working group was simultaneously explor-
Board of Directors in 2019, had been outspoken
ing the idea of a repository of information on exist-
about her belief that diversity, equity, and inclu-
ing initiatives related to diversity, equity, and inclu-
sion were important issues within the statistics
sion and information of interest to marginalized
field. Together, Sharp, ASA Director of Strategic
members of the statistics community. The original
Initiatives and Outreach Donna LaLonde, ASA
idea was that grants, research opportunities, fund-
Executive Director Ron Wasserstein, and Kafadar
ing for travel, and internships would all be posted in
assembled a team that became the Diversity
the repository. The members of the working group
Working Group.
began developing a Google sheet to list links to
may 2021 amstat news 15these resources and exploring how to create a more willing to run in an election for either chair or chair-
robust platform to house this “one-stop shop.” elect later that year. At first, she was confused by the
All this was progress toward creating a more just request. Sellers was active in several organizations
environment in the statistics profession, but the work- pursing diversity-related initiatives and was aware
ing group was not designed to be a long-term body of the ASA Anti-Racism Task Force. She requested a
within the ASA. In October of 2019, at the Women Zoom meeting to discuss what JEDI was and what
in Statistics and Data Science Conference, individuals she could contribute to the effort.
interested in diversity, equity, and inclusion met for Sellers, Sharp, and LaLonde met two days
a lunch meeting, during which the idea of an ASA later. Sellers requested the chair position to be two
Special Interest Group (SIG) specifically focused on years long to allow enough time to create a strong
diversity, equity, and inclusion arose. Participants infrastructure and for elections to be postponed
at that meeting included Suzanne Thornton, Jack a year. She pointed out that the JEDI Executive
Miller, Tami Massie, Saki Kinney, and LaLonde. Committee was trying to organize elections by the
By early 2020, the group—which included both end of the calendar year and there wasn’t enough
task force members and other interested parties— time to build a good slate of candidates or get the
began drafting a charter for the proposed SIG. In word out to the general ASA membership.
late spring of 2020, as COVID began shutting down Sharp and LaLonde brought Sellers’s ideas back to
travel, they reached out to ASA members through the executive committee and they arranged to meet
ASA Connect with a petition to start the SIG and with Sellers in November. After further discussion,
discussed the idea with the ASA Council of Sections. Sellers and the executive committee members decid-
The ASA Council of Sections suggested they con- ed the executive committee would serve as the inter-
sider forming an ASA Outreach Group instead. im leadership for JEDI for 2021, allowing enough
At this time, Sharp’s role as leader of the work- time for an election to occur in 2022. Sellers would
ing group led to her becoming the interim leader serve as chair and Sharp would serve as past chair for
of the new outreach group, which decided it would 2021 and 2022. Members of the executive commit-
be called the JEDI Outreach Group (JEDI OG), tee would serve as chairs for five organizing com-
to represent justice, equity, diversity, and inclusion. mittees: Programming, Students, Communications,
With a revised charter and a petition with about 80 Liaison, and Professional Development.
signatures, the group petitioned the ASA Board of In early 2021, JEDI went “live” by asking every-
Directors for official status and was approved dur- one who had expressed interest or been nominated
ing the July 2020 meeting. for a leadership role to become part of the leader-
The work of setting up the outreach group was ship team—that is, become members of these five
just beginning. Those who had worked to make the committees that would develop the structured activ-
JEDI OG a reality knew they would need much ities of the outreach group. As a result, about 40
more assistance to make the group an effective agent individuals are serving either as part of the interim
for change. They became the executive committee executive committee or on one of the five organiz-
of JEDI and scheduled several meetings to discuss ing committees. In the past several months, each
how the leadership of the group would be struc- of the organizing committees has met several times
tured and refine the charter and goals of the group. and is on the way to accomplishing its goals.
Following the 2020 Women in Statistics and The program committee, chaired by Gretchen
Data Science Conference, the group’s first public Martinet, determines programming such as webi-
meeting occurred, during which they announced nars that will involve and support JEDI OG mem-
they were soliciting nominations for leadership bers and the broader community. JEDI is already
positions. They then sent out a Google form to listed among the sponsoring organizations for con-
everyone who expressed interest in JEDI through tributed abstracts at the Joint Statistical Meetings
signing the petition or attending the meeting fol- in 2021. JEDI will also host a panel discussion at
lowing WSDS to allow nominations to be made. JSM titled, “Justice, Equity, Diversity, and Inclusion
At this point in the story, Kimberly Sellers, a (JEDI) in the ASA.” The program committee is
professor at Georgetown University, entered the starting to plan an invited session for JSM 2022.
picture. She was unknowingly nominated for chair On a smaller scale, the program committee is dis-
of JEDI, so she was surprised when she received an cussing the organization of an ongoing contributed
email on October 14, 2020, asking if she would be presentation series with annual local meetings.
16 amstat news may 2021You can also read
