3043 SOUTH BLACK HORSE PIKE WILLIAMSTOWN NJ MONROE TOWNSHIP
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*residential townhome development inspirational image
3043
SOUTH BLACK HORSE PIKE
WILLIAMSTOWN NJ
MONROE TOWNSHIP
Gloucester County
$5,800,000 LAND DEVELOPMENT SITE FOR SALE
GDP Approval In Place for 268 Townhomes, 219 Single Family Homes, 100 Assisted
Living Units, 70 Independent Living Units, 106 Key Hotel, 107,240 SF Commercial
Highway Retail, 4,900 Square Feet Restaurant
www.powermovesproperties.com Located on a Major Artery 1
2 www.powermovesproperties.com *Residential Independent / Assisted Living Development inspirational image*
TABLE OF CONTENTS
Executive Summary 04
Site Highlights 05
Demographics 07
Lisa Price & Associates
Feasibility Study 09
Confidentiality & Disclaimer 30
www.powermovesproperties.com 3
EXECUTIVE SUMMARY
Swali’s Real Estate Team at Keller Williams Commercial exclusively east of affluent Cherry Hill, NJ & 45 minutes from Philadelphia.
presents this land development opportunity. Priced at $5,800,000, this
138 Acres are usable, which have been granted a General Development
asset already has a General Development Approval for a master planned
Plan (GDP) Approval by the city of Monroe Twp of Gloucester County NJ.
community. The site consists of 168 acres of land in NJ just 35 minutes
WHAT’S NEARBY?
GENERAL DEVELOPMENT PLAN APPROVAL
• New Walmart SuperCenter 2.6 miles from the site
• 268 Townhomes
• Shoprite 9.4 miles
• 219 Single Family Homes
• Sams Club 7.9 miles
• 100 Assisted Living Units
• Whitehall elementary school 1.3 miles from the site
• 70 Independent Living Units
• Debtford Mall in Woodbury 22 minutes drive
• 106 Key Hotel
• Cherry Hill Whole Foods + C.H. Mall 160 stores (middle-
• 107,240 +- Square Feet of Commercial Highway Retail Space market to upscale shopping) - 35 minutes drive
with frontage on Black Horse Pike
• Gloucester Premium Outlets 400 stores (opened august
• 4,900 Square Feet Restaurant 2015) - 22 minutes drive
NOTE* The city approved the GDP November 10, 2010. • 40 Minute Drive to Philadelphia International Airport
Once final approval is in, the approval lasts 20 years, as per page 10, paragraph
4 of the resolution (Available for your Review)
• 34 Minute Drive to Atlantic City International Airport
4 www.powermovesproperties.com
SITE HIGHLIGHTS c) Community Commercial uses in the form of retail business and service
establishments, including retail shops, personal service establishments,
• 45 Minutes Drive (28.7 Miles) from Philadelphia 30th St. Train
business and professional offices, banks and fiduciary institutions,
Station.
eating and drinking establishment, hotels, and motels, commercial care
• 30 Minutes Drive to Philadelphia International Airport. offices and treatment facilities, commercial parking lots and the like.
• 33 Minutes Drive (30 Miles) to Atlantic City International Airport. Zoning: RG-MU, Regional Growth Mixed-Use District for 138 developable
• 168 Acres Land acres RD-RR, Rural Development Residential Receiving District for
remaining undevelopable land
• 138 Acres Developable Land
• GDP Approval for Master Planned Community Per Page 16 of 25 of the General Development Plan (GDP) - the site is a 14
phase project over 20 years in a letter w/ the city planning board
• Flood zone risk: Outside of the 100-year flood zone
The GDP is intended as a precursor to subdivision or site plan application
and gives protection against future zoning changes. According to the
LOCATIONAL NOTES township planner, this GDP does not expire. The developer will need to
present subdivision plan + site plan application to the Planning Board and
• Philadelphia 45 minute drive
confirm with all state laws.
• Cherry Hill 35 minute drive
Per Page 5 of the zoning resolution Article #35
• Trenton 60 minutes drive
• Newark 1 hour 40 minutes drive Developer to Satisfy conditions for Site Approval
• Atlantic City 33 minutes drive • Certificate of Filing from the Pinelands Reserve Commission giving
approval of the project
• Cape May 60 minutes drive
• Subject to subdivision approval being granted
• As part of the subdivision approval, developer is to submit
MAJOR EMPLOYERS
a. Fiscal Impact Study
Major employers in Gloucester County include Inspira Health Network,
b. Traffic Study
Kennedy Memorial Hospital, Rowan University, Delaware Valley Wholesale
Florist, ExxonMobil Research and Engineering Co., Godwin Pumps Missa c. Environmental Report
Bay LLC., PBF Energy-Paulsboro Refinery, and US Food Services. • Subject to site plan approval
• Subject to the comments made by planner contained in his letter dated
January 3, 2005 (GDP Resolution available within DD documents)
ZONING & LAND USE REGULATIONS
The subject property is located within the Regional Growth Mixed-Use Property Tax
(RG-MU) and the Rural Development Residential Receiving (RD-RR)
zoning district of the subject municipality. The following are principal Taxed as Farmland: $6,743 per annum
permitted uses within this zoning district:
Demographic Study
Regional Growth Mixed-Use (RG-MU)
Average household income - Monroe twp : $56,709
The following are principal permitted uses within this zoning district:
Planned Development, consisting of residential, institutional and community The Schools nearby
commercial uses. • Monroe Township Public School system serves 6,000 students pre-
a) Residential units in the form of single-family detached dwellings, single- k-12th
family semidetached dwellings, single-family attached dwellings, multi- • 4 elementary schools, 1 middle school, 1 high school
family dwellings, or apartment flats. Independent living facilities and
assisted living facilities shall also be considered permitted residential • Whitehall elementary within 2.6 miles of the site
uses, whether or not they are part of continuing care facility. • High school is ranked 282 out of 411 high schools in the
a. No residential unit shall contain greater than 4 bedrooms. state of NJ
b. A maximum of 50% of the single-family detached units proposed
shall have four (4) bedrooms WHATS THE UPSIDE?
c. No single—family attached, single-family semi-detached or multi- • Play: Build a master community. Build in phases as you sell out
family/apartment units shall have more than three (3) bedrooms homes
and a minimum of 50% shall have two (2) bedrooms.
• Play: Build the commercial as you pre-lease it
b) Institutional uses in the form of congregate care facilities, long-term
care facilities and nursing homes. • Play: Ground Lease / Subdivide Hotel Site to an operator. Ground
lease Commercial Site to operator
www.powermovesproperties.com 5
SITE AREA BREAKDOWN WITHIN RG-MU ZONE
Commercial Area 860,797.33 SF OR 19.7612 ± ACRES
Independent/Assisted Living Area 245,515.79 SF OR 5.6363 ± ACRES
Residential Area 4,950,553.38 SF OR 113.6490 ± ACRES
Total Area 6,056,866.50 SF OR 139.0465 ± ACRES
6 www.powermovesproperties.com
POPULATION FACTS & TRENDS
Gloucester County New Jersey
Population
2021 Projection 296,498 9,112,977
2016 Estimate 292,033 8,945,404
2010 Census 288,288 8,791,894
2000 Census 254,822 8,414,361
Growth 2016 - 2021 1.53% 1.97%
Growth 2010 - 2016 1.30% 2.20%
Growth 2000 - 2010 13.13% 4.49%
2016 Est. Median Age 39.90 39.70
2016 Est. Average Age 39.60 39.70
EDUCATION & EMPLOYMENT
Gloucester County New Jersey
2016 Est. Pop Age 25+ by Edu. Attainment 198,543 6,167,560
Bachelor's Degree 39,441 19.87% 1,387,997 22.50%
Master's Degree 13,333 6.72% 615,382 9.98%
Professional School Degree 2,658 1.34% 147,905 2.40%
Doctorate Degree 1,776 0.89% 90,772 1.47%
2016 Est. Pop 16+ by Occupation Classification 144,056 4,323,094
Blue Collar 26,313 18.27% 752,194 17.40%
White Collar 95,982 66.63% 2,824,320 65.33%
Service and Farm 21,761 15.11% 746,580 17.27%
2016 Est. Workers Age 16+ by Transp. to Work 141,113 4,230,553
Drove Alone 121,802 86.32% 3,044,948 71.98%
Car Pooled 9,648 6.84% 345,738 8.17%
Public Transportation 2,529 1.79% 465,300 11.00%
Walked 2,309 1.64% 124,657 2.95%
Bicycle 545 0.39% 15,432 0.36%
Other Means 968 0.69% 66,056 1.56%
Worked at Home 3,312 2.35% 168,422 3.98%
2016 Est. Avg Travel Time to Work in Minutes 31.00 34.00
HOUSING
Gloucester County New Jersey
2016 Est. Tenure of Occupied Housing Units 106,023 3,289,113
Owner Occupied 84,995 80.17% 2,140,271 65.07%
Renter Occupied 21,028 19.83% 1,148,842 34.93%
2016 Owner Occ. HUs: Avg. Length of Residence 18 18
2016 Renter Occ. HUs: Avg. Length of Residence 8 9
2016 Est. Median All Owner-Occupied Housing Value $225,641 $333,394
2016 Est. Housing Units by Units in Structure 112,405 3,650,482
1 Unit Attached 8,807 7.84% 338,771 9.28%
1 Unit Detached 82,641 73.52% 1,954,338 53.54%
2016 Est. Median Year Structure Built ** 1978 1967
www.powermovesproperties.com 7
HOUSEHOLD FACTS & TRENDS
Gloucester County New Jersey
Households
2021 Projection 107,829 3,358,537
2016 Estimate 106,023 3,289,113
2010 Census 104,271 3,214,360
2000 Census 90,776 3,064,642
Growth 2016 - 2021 1.70% 2.11%
Growth 2010 - 2016 1.68% 2.33%
Growth 2000 - 2010 14.87% 4.89%
Households with 1 or More People under Age 18: 39,337 37.10% 1,150,683 34.98%
Households with No People under Age 18: 66,686 62.90% 2,138,430 65.02%
2016 Est. Households by Number of Vehicles 106,023 3,289,113
No Vehicles 5,423 5.11% 381,641 11.60%
2016 Est. Average Number of Vehicles 2.00 1.70
2016 Est. Households by Household Size 106,023 3,289,113
1-person 23,748 22.40% 841,571 25.59%
2-person 32,238 30.41% 969,674 29.48%
3-person 19,600 18.49% 575,872 17.51%
4-person 18,050 17.02% 506,489 15.40%
5-person 8,123 7.66% 238,634 7.26%
6-person 2,883 2.72% 92,983 2.83%
7-or-more-person 1,381 1.30% 63,890 1.94%
2016 Est. Average Household Size 2.71 2.68
INCOME
Gloucester County New Jersey
2016 Est. Households by HH Income 106,023 3,289,113
Income Less Than $15,000 7,330 6.91% 310,513 9.44%
Income $15,000 - $24,999 7,860 7.41% 269,102 8.18%
Income $25,000 - $34,999 7,777 7.34% 251,255 7.64%
Income $35,000 - $49,999 12,130 11.44% 350,139 10.65%
Income $50,000 - $74,999 18,736 17.67% 522,640 15.89%
Income $75,000 - $99,999 14,220 13.41% 409,942 12.46%
Income $100,000 - $124,999 12,803 12.08% 328,024 9.97%
Income $125,000 - $149,999 8,736 8.24% 230,709 7.01%
Income $150,000 - $199,999 9,753 9.20% 276,862 8.42%
Income $200,000 - $249,999 2,983 2.81% 112,015 3.41%
Income $250,000 - $499,999 3,016 2.84% 153,102 4.65%
Income $500,000 and more 679 0.64% 74,810 2.27%
2016 Est. Average Household Income $91,818 $100,314 2.95%
2016 Est. Median Household Income $73,904 $72,173 0.36%
2016 Est. Families by Poverty Status 77,228 2,274,354 1.56%
2016 Families at or Above Poverty 72,031 93.27% 2,082,270 91.55%
2016 Families at or Above Poverty with Children 33,501 43.38% 964,724 42.42%
2016 Families Below Poverty 5,197 6.73% 192,084 8.45%
2016 Families Below Poverty with Children 3,963 5.13% 146,201 6.43%
8 www.powermovesproperties.com
COMPETITIVE HIGHLIGHTS SUMMARY
2017 17 YTD Overall Avg Avg
Total Total Units Avg Avg $/
Community/Builder YTD Sales Sales Closed Base Closed
Planned Sold Left SF SF
Sold Place Place Price Price
Carriage Glen/Don Paparone Homes 41 17 37 1.5 1.0 4 31 $305,733 2,377 $133.57 $351,387
Boundary Run/Ryan Homes 52 20 20 2.7 2.7 32 11 $299,990 1,872 $166.53 $375k
Meadows at Greenwich Crossing/
57 14 14 2.5 2.5 43 3 $337,475 2,423 $140.05 $425k
Ryan Homes
Weatherby Place/Ryan Homes 83 34 40 3.1 2.1 43 18 $288,390 1,961 $151.91 $350k
Total/Average 233 85 111 9.8 8.3 122 63 $307,897 2,158 $148.02
TOWNHOME COMPETITIVE HIGHLIGHTS SUMMARY
2017 17 YTD Overall Avg Avg
Total Total Units Avg Avg $/
Community/Builder YTD Sales Sales Closed Base Closed
Planned Sold Left SF SF
Sold Place Place Price Price
$235k /
Villages at Cross Keys/Ryan Homes 168 36 141 3.3 3.7 27 125 $216,240 1,831 $120.23
$144sf*
Eagle Landing/CalAtlantic Homes 40 1 1 39 0 $207,490 1,781 $116.58
Parkwood Manor/Ryan Homes 54 28 48 2.5 2.4 6 35 $214,657 1,831 $129.36 $273k
Pinnacle Place/Ryan Homes 138 17 17 4.3 4.3 121 5 $229,990 1,880 $125.22 $280k
Georgetown Mews/Fernmoor Homes 62 15 26 1.4 1.1 36 24 $214,900 1,965 $109.36 $208k
Total/Average 462 97 233 11.4 11.5 229 189 $216,655 1,858 $120.15
ACTIVE ADULT COMPETITIVE HIGHLIGHTS SUMMARY
2017 17 YTD Overall Avg Avg
Total Total Units Avg Avg $/
Community/Builder YTD Sales Sales Closed Base Closed
Planned Sold Left SF SF
Sold Place Place Price Price
Stirling Glen/J.S. Hovnanian & Sons 195 30 52 2.7 2.4 143 31 $249,733 1,794 $139.68 $330k
The Village Grande at Camelot/D.R.
450 48 437 4.4 3.0 13 423 $311,750 1,829 $169.08 $323,640
Horton
$383k /
Montebello/J.S. Hovnanian & Sons 348 46 225 4.2 2.0 123 201 $327,900 1,967 $167.12
$173 sf*
The Preserve at Weatherby/McKee
239 0 0 239 0 $312,400 1,669 $187.78
Homes
Total/Average 1,232 124 714 11.3 7.4 518 655 $300,446 1,815 $165.92
Total 2017 Total 17 YTD Overall Units Avg Avg Avg $/ Avg
Community/Builder YTD Sales Sales Closed Base Closed
Planned Sold Left SF SF
Sold Place Place Price Price
Stirling Glen/J.S. Hovnanian & Sons 195 30 52 2.7 2.4 143 31 $249,733 1,794 $139.68 $330k
The Village Grande at Camelot/D.R.
450 48 437 4.4 3.0 13 423 $311,750 1,829 $169.08 $323,640
Horton
$383k /
Montebello/J.S. Hovnanian & Sons 348 46 225 4.2 2.0 123 201 $327,900 1,967 $167.12
$173 sf*
The Preserve at Weatherby/McKee
239 0 0 239 0 $312,400 1,669 $187.78
Homes
Total/Average 1,232 124 714 11.3 7.4 518 655 $300,446 1,815 $165.92
Source: Lisa Price & Associates Feasibility Analysis
www.powermovesproperties.com 9
COMPETITIVE FOR SALE TOWNHOME HIGHLIGHTS
Ryan Homes is the dominant player in the marketplace with 3 of the 5 Camden County
active attached communities in the competitive market area including
CalAtlantic’s Eagles Landing http://www.calatlantichomes.com/find-
Camden and Gloucester Counties with more in their pipeline. D.R. Horton
your-new-home/35-philadelphia/8256-eagle-landing.html presold from
has plans to expand into this market with townhome communities in 2018.
a nearby community and opened from a completed model in December.
While Gloucester Township is considered superior to Monroe, this site is
Gloucester County
impaired by a busy intersection. Prices are from $200k with only 1 sold
Pinnacle Place http://www.ryanhomes.com/find-your-home/our- to date.
communities/new-jersey/washington-township/pinnacle-place by Ryan
Villages at Cross Keys http://www.ryanhomes.com/find-your-home/our-
in superior Washington Township is the top seller with a pace of 4+ per
communities/new-jersey/sicklerville/the-villages-at-cross-keys by Ryan,
month (17 of the 138 sold) and the highest prices from $210k with an
also in Gloucester Township, is the closest physical competitor located
average closed of $280k. The site aesthetics and location is considered
9.5 miles from the subject site. Prices are from $195k (1,432 sf) to $240k
superior to Ryan’s Parkwood Manor http://www.ryanhomes.com/find-
(2,304 sf) with an annual average closed price of $235k. Ryan has sold
your-home/our-communities/new-jersey/sewell/parkwoodmanor that
141 homes (3.7 per month) with 27 remaining. The current homesites are
has sold 48 of the 54 homes planned (2.4 per month) with base prices
closest to the AC Expressway. Buyers are from the local area including
from $200k and average closed of $273k. Buyers are primarily local
Winslow and Washington Townships as well as from Philadelphia and
including first time and move-down.
a few from NY. Employment is concentrated in the local area including
Georgetown Mews https://www.georgetownmewshomes.com/ by Cherry Hill with some buyers commuting to Philadelphia.
Fernmoor homes is located in Deptford Township and is considered over
More detailed information on the townhome ‘for sale’ competition can be
priced for this location from $211k with an average closed price of $208k
found on the competitive charts on the following pages; summary data is
and an everything included platform. The community has sold only 26
below:
homes since Q1 2016 at a pace of 1 per month and is underperforming
the market. Based on current sales pace, there is currently less than a 21-month
supply of townhome inventory. Slightly more than half of the units planned
remain to be sold with 85% of the sold units closed translating into a
minimal backlog. Incentives range from $3.5k to $7,600 and are typically
in the form of options and closing cost assistance.
Source: Lisa Price & Associates Feasibility Analysis
10 www.powermovesproperties.comCOMPETITIVE FOR SALE SINGLE FAMILY DETACHED HIGHLIGHTS
Carriage Glen http://paparonehomes.com/communities/carriage-glen/
in Monroe is the closest physical competitor located 3.5 miles to the
north of the site. The final 41 ¼-acre homesites have been active since
November 2014 (community was shuttered during the recession). Don
Paparone has sold 37 homes at a pace of 1 per month with 2017 sales
of 17 outperforming YOY. Base prices are from $280k (1,950 sf) with an
average closed price of $351k. Buyers are predominantly local (Sicklerville
and Williamstown) middle class including teachers and police officers
(there is no ethnic diversity). This site is considered superior and the
pricing is higher than what is optimal for the subject property to absorb
product within a reasonable period. Paparone is also selling the final 28
homes at Twelve Oaks http://paparonehomes.com/communities/twelve-
oaks/ located in a superior portion of Monroe. Homes are overpriced for
the area from $350k (2,405 sf) to $395k (3,400 sf) with none selling since
sales started in June. Taxes (3.542% of purchase price) create push back
for the community.
The balance of the detached competitors are located in superior towns
with higher prices than what can be achieved at the subject site.
More detailed information on the single family ‘for sale’ competition can
be found on the competitive charts on the following pages; summary data
is below. There is currently just over 12 months of detached supply with
close to half of the units planned sold. Just over 25% of the sold inventory
is in backlog. Incentives range from $4k to over $35k and are typically
towards optional expenditures.
Source: Lisa Price & Associates Feasibility Analysis
www.powermovesproperties.com 11COMPETITIVE FOR SALE ACTIVE ADULT HIGHLIGHTS
Stirling Glen http://www.hovhomes.com/stirlingglen/ by JS Hovnanian most buyers coming locally from within Gloucester County including
has sold 52 (2.4 per month) of the 195 detached active adult homes located younger 55+ buyers who are still working.
adjacent to Scotland Run Golf Course with prices from $232k (1,577 sf).
Both Montebello www.hovhomes.com/montebello by JS Hovnanian and
Buyers are primarily from the local area including Williamstown, Sewell
The Preserve at Weatherby http://weatherbynj.com/ by the McKee Group
and Washington Township spending an average of $330k with 70% taking
are priced above achievable pricing for the subject property with prices
the optional second floor +$29k to $39k. Taxes over 3% create pushback.
starting at $300k+.
The Village Grande at Camelot http://www.drhorton.com/Where-We-
More detailed information on the active adult ‘for sale’ competition can be
Build/New-Jersey/New-Jersey/Division/Village-Grande-at-Camelot.
found on the competitive charts on the following pages and summary data
aspx by D.R. Horton in superior Glassboro is nearing completion with only
below. While there are over 500 units of active adult supply in Gloucester
13 of the 450 detached homes remaining. Quick delivery prices range
County, we believe this segment of the market has room for growth as
from $290k to $326k with an average closed of $323,640. The 18,000
many 55+ communities report increased interest and activity over the past
sf clubhouse is the largest of any active adult community in the area with
year.
Source: Lisa Price & Associates Feasibility Analysis
12 www.powermovesproperties.comCOMPETITIVE RENTAL HIGHLIGHTS
It should be noted that rental communities and management companies LPA surveyed 3 Class A rental communities in Gloucester County and 3 in
use a wide variety of methods for calculating lease (prices) rates. Some Camden County. Our analysis reveals that while vacancies are below 5%
operators use market rate rents which are calculated by price optimization for stabilized communities, local operators reveal an increase in turnover
management software (YieldStar, Yardi and Rainmaker LRO) which and occupancy. Top reasons for move-outs include home purchase and
recalculates pricing on a daily basis based on actual market conditions, lease break – with many being relocated out of the area. It should be noted
while others may update their rents by month or season. A number of that Enclave @ Winslow and Taylor Woods are in initial lease-up, which
operators will offer lower rents on shorter lease terms depending on when temporarily inflates vacancy. Of the communities surveyed, Barclay Glen
the lease is projected to end; e.g., leases which are to expire at the end in Monroe is the most comparable to the subject site. Barclay Glen offers
of February on a 10-month lease (right before the high season of rentals well-appointed, generous-sized 2BR units with a well-executed amenity
starts) may have a lower rate than a 12-month lease because it’s easier package. Tenants are a mix of young millennials to move down empty
for them to re-rent in March rather than after the high season when the nesters from a broad area including employees of Atlantic Care (Atlantic
12-month lease expired. Conversely, longer lease terms may be offered County) and others that commute within Southern NJ.
at a reduced rate, so that the lease ends before the height of the market.
SUMMARY STATUS OF PRIMARY RENTAL COMPS JANUARY 2018
No. of Total Percent Total Percent Units Monthly
Community Units Leased Leased Occupied Occupied Available Pace
Gloucester County
Barclay Glen 276 269 97.6% 265 96.0% 7 7.2
Essex Chase 252 247 98.0% 247 98.0% 5 14.0
Pond View Apartments at Weatherby 250 243 97.0% 243 97.0% 8
Camden County
Enclave @ Winslow* 105 73 69.5% 70 66.6% 32 8.1
Taylor Woods* 312 244 78.2% 231 74.0% 68 13.5
Glen Eyre 177 169 95.5% 170 96.4% 8
Total/Average 1,372 1,245 89.3% 1,225 88.0% 127
Source: Lisa Price & Associates Feasibility Analysis
www.powermovesproperties.com 13TOWNHOME COMPETITIVE HIGHLIGHTS - GLOUCESTER & CAMDEN COUNTIES 12/2017
COMMUNITY/BUILDER LOCATION/MILEAGE FROM SITE/HIGH SCHOOL PICTURE/ ADD’L COMMENTS
Villages at Cross Keys/Ryan Homes
Sicklerville 08081/Gloucester Twp/Camden Cty
9.5 Miles From Site/Timber Creek H.S.
Product: 3 Sty TH 2016 Sales: 47
Units: 168 Total Sales: 141
Date Opened: Sep-14 Sales Pace: 3.7
YTD Sales: 36 Remaining: 27
Superior to Subject Site Closed: 125 Current backlog closes Apr/May
Eagle Landing/CalAtlantic Homes
Sicklerville 08081/Gloucester Twp/Camden Cty
11.5 Miles From Site/Timber Crrek H.S.
Product: TH YTD Sales: 1
Units: 40 Total Sales: 1
Date Opened: Sales Pace:
Model Opened: Dec-17 Remaining: 39
Comparable to Subject Site Closed: 0 Deliveries Feb 2018
Parkwood Manor/Ryan Homes
Sewell 08080/Washington Twp/Gloucester Cty
13.5 Miles From Site/Washington Twp H.S.
Product: TH YTD Sales: 28
Units: 40 Total Sales: 48
2016 Sales: 20 Sales Pace: 2.4
Date Opened: Dec-17 Remaining: 6
Superior to Subject Site Closed: 35
Pinnacle Place/Ryan Homes
Washington Twp 08080/Gloucester Cty
13.5 Miles From Site//Washington Twp H.S.
Product: TH YTD Sales: 17
Units: 138 Total Sales: 17
Sales Pace: 4.3
Date Opened: Aug-17 Remaining: 121
Superior to Subject Site Closed: 5
Georgetown Mews/Fernmoor Homes
Wenonah 08090/Deptford Twp/Gloucester Cty
18 Miles From Site/Deptford Twp HS
Product: TH YTD Sales: 15
Units: 62 Total Sales: 26
Date Opened: Jan-16 Sales Pace: 1.1
Model Opened: Aug-16 Remaining: 36 Model home for sale $229k
Comparable to Subject Site Closed: 24 PH4 selling; occupancy spring '18
* Best Seller + Model Home
Source: Lisa Price & Associates Feasibility Analysis
14 www.powermovesproperties.comPRODUCT PRICING ADDITIONAL $
Stories~/ BR/BA Garage
Width/ Int Den/Flex/ Rear, Side Base Price/ Avg Avg Monthly
Model or End Loft/Bsmt Front Sq Ft Price Incentives Sq Ft Premiums Options HOA Taxes
Beethoven 3sty 20' I 3/1/0 1F 1,432 $194,990 $5,000 $136.17 $0 $20,000 $66 $487
Beethoven 3sty 20' I 3/2/1 1F 1,658 $209,990 $126.65 $525
Grnd*
Mozart+ 3sty 20' I 3/2/0 1F 1,931 $219,990 $113.93 $550
Strauss 3sty 20' I 3/2/0 1F 2,304 $239,990 $104.16 $19,000 $40,000 $600
$5k towards options and closing
End units $10k to $19k costs
Btvn Grnd, Mozart & Strauss include fin. lower level as
incentive
Finished lower level sf included in above
Avg
Community Averages: $216,240 $235k /
1,831 $120.23 Annual
Average $ Increase Since Q1 '16: 7.2% $144 SF
Closed
Tydings+ 3sty 20' I 3/2/1 1F 1,700 $199,990 $7,600 $117.64 $3,700 $75 $600
Tilden+ 3sty 22' E 3/2/1 1F 1,861 $214,990 $115.52 $645
Finished lower level included Incentive: $5k towards closing costs
Appliance pkg: w/d + fridge =
$2,600
Community Averages: 1,781 $207,490 $116.58
Average $ Increase Since Opening:
Beethoven 3sty 20' I 3/1/0 1F 1,432 $199,990 $3,500 $139.66 $3,700 $75 $600
Beethoven 3sty 20' I 3/2.5 1F 1,658 $216,990 $130.87 $645
Grande+
Mozart 3sty 20' I 3/2/0 1F 1,931 $226,990 $117.55
Strauss* s/o 3sty 20' I 3/2/0 1F 2,304 s/o
Bthvn Grnd, Mozart & Strauss include fin. lower level as End units $10k to $15k - soldout
incentive
Finished lower level sf included in above $3,500 towards closing or options
$5k off options until 12/23
Avg
Community Averages: 1,831 $214,657 $129.36 $273k
Closed
Beethoven 3sty 20' I 3/2/0 1F 1,432 $209,990 $3,500 $146.64 $40,000 $86 $567
Mozart+* 3sty 20' I 3/2/0 1F 1,919 $229,990 $119.85 $495 $600
Strauss 3sty 20' I 3/2/0 1F 2,290 $249,990 $109.17 $2,995 $50,000 $633
End units +$10k Partial stone
Mozart & Strauss include fin. lower level as incentive $3,500 mortgage incentive
Avg
Community Averages: 1,880 $229,990 $125.22 $280k
Closed
Princeton* 3sty 20' I 2/2/1 D 1F 1,969 $210,900 $5,000 $107.11 $129 $487
Stockton 3sty 20' I 2/2/1 1F 1,958 $213,900 $109.24 $494
Rowan+* 3sty 20' I 3/2/1 1F 1,968 $219,900 $111.74 $507
+$5k for end units $5k towards closing +$5k for end units
Everything Included
Avg
Community Averages: 1,965 $214,900 $109.36 $208k
Closed
^ 1st Floor Master Bedroom ~ Above Grade s/o soldout
Source: Lisa Price & Associates Feasibility Analysis
www.powermovesproperties.com 15SFD COMPETITIVE HIGHLIGHTS - GLOUCESTER & CAMDEN COUNTIES 12/2017
COMMUNITY/BUILDER LOCATION/MILEAGE FROM SITE/HIGH SCHOOL PICTURE/ ADD’L COMMENTS
Carriage Glen/Don Paparone Homes
Williamstown 08094/Monroe Twp/Gloucester Cty
3.5 Miles From Site/Monroe Township SD
Product: SFD YTD Sales: 17
Units: 41 2016 Sales: 9
Avg Acreage: 1/4 acre Total Sales: 37
Date Opened: Nov-14 Sales Pace: 1
Final phase of 200 unit community started in 2005 shuttered in
Remaining: 4 recession
Superior to Site Closed: 31 Monmouth QD $300k
Boundary Run/Ryan Homes
Wenonah 08090/Deptford Twp/Gloucester Cty
17 Miles From Site/Deptford Twp SD
Product: SFD YTD Sales: 20
Units: 52 Total Sales: 20
Avg Acreage: 1/4 to 1/3 Sales Pace: 2.7
Date Opened: Apr-17 Remaining: 32 Grand opening
Superior to Site Closed: 11 PH1 soldout 26 in 2016 avg closed PH1 $345k
Meadows at Greenwich Crossing/Ryan Homes
Mt. Royal 08061/E. Greenwich T wp/Gloucester Cty
19 Miles From Site/E. Greenwich T wp SD
Product: SFD YTD Sales: 34
Units: 83 Total Sales: 40
Avg Acreage: 1/4 acre Sales Pace: 2.1
Date Opened: 16-May Remaining: 43
Superior to Site Closed: 18
Weatherby Place/Ryan Homes
Woolwich T wp 08085/Gloucester Cty
26 Miles From Site/Kingsway Reg. SD
Product: SFD YTD Sales: 14
Units: 57 Total Sales: 14
Avg Acreage: 1/4 acre Sales Pace: 2.5
Date Opened: 17-Jun Remaining: 43
Superior to Site Closed: 3 Grand opening bsmts available
* Best Seller + Model Home
Source: Lisa Price & Associates Feasibility Analysis
16 www.powermovesproperties.comPRODUCT PRICING ADDITIONAL $
BR/BA/ Garage
Den/Flex/ Rear, Side Price/ Sq Avg Avg Monthly Monthly
Model Loft/Bsmt Front Sq Ft Base Price Incentives Ft Premiums Options HOA Taxes
Weston 3/2/1 2F 1,950 $279,900 $12,500 $143.54 $10,000 $35,000 $30 $826
Laurel ranch-slab 3/2/0 2F 1,762 $294,900 $167.37 $870
Devon+ 4/2/1 2F 2,135 $299,900 $140.47 $885
Monmouth 4/2/1 2F 2,585 $299,900 $116.02 $20,000 $885
Belmont 4/2/1 2F 2,700 $324,900 $120.33 $959
Abington 4/2/1 D 2F 2,946 $334,900 $113.68 $989
Preakness 3/2/1 2F 2,559 Disc
*50% off options up to $25k
Community Averages: 2,377 $305,733 $133.57 Avg Closed $351,387
Sorrento 3/2/1 1F 1,402 $264,990 $4,000 189.01 $0 $50,000 $56 $640
Sienna 3/2/1 2F 1,681 $284,990 169.54
Florence 3/2/1 2F 1,956 $299,990 153.37 $5,000
Pisa Torre ^ 3/2/0 2F 1,407 $304,990 216.77
ranch
Venice+* 4/2/1 2F 2,225 $314,990 141.57
Milan 3/2/1 2F 2,560 $329,990 128.9 $15,000
*Incentive towards closing costs
Community Averages: 1,872 $299,990 $166.53 Avg Closed $375k
Florence 3/2/1 2F 1,952 $299,990 $25,000 $153.68 $2,500 $65,000 $64 $750
Venice 4/2/1 2F 2,225 $319,990 $143.82 $800
Milan 3/2/1 2F 2,539 $319,990 $143.83 $5,000 $850
Ravenna+* 4/2/1 2F 2,560 $319,990 $143.84 $862
Victoria Falls 4/2/1 2F 2,500 $319,990 $143.85 $887
Jefferson Sq* 4/2/1 2S 2,761 $319,990 $143.86 $10,000 $912
*Luxury package $75k for $50k
Plus $10k add'l off in December
Community Averages: 2,423 $337,475 $140.05 Avg Closed $425k
Sienna 3/2/1 2F 1,680 $259,990 $15,000 $154.76 $0 $50,000 $44 $635
Pisa T orre ranch 3/2/0 2F 1,407 $279,990 $199.00 $684
Venice+* 4/2/1 2F 2,225 $299,990 $134.83 $5,000 $732
Florence* 3/2/1 2F 1,952 $285,990 $146.51 $698
Milan 3/2/1 2F 2,539 $315,990 $20,000 $124.45 $20,000 $772
*Luxury pkg $50k selling for $35k
Community Averages: 1,961 $288,390 $151.91 Avg Closed $350k
^ 1st flr MBR
Source: Lisa Price & Associates Feasibility Analysis
www.powermovesproperties.com 17AA COMPETITIVE HIGHLIGHTS - GLOUCESTER & CAMDEN COUNTIES 12/2017 COMMUNITY/BUILDER LOCATION/ MILEAGE FROM SITE PICTURE/ ADD’L COMMENTS Stirling Glen/J.S. Hovnanian & Sons Williamstown 08094/Monroe Twp/Gloucester Cty 8.5 Miles From Site Product: YTD Sales: 30 Units: 195 Total Sales: 52 Lot Size: 65 x 110 Sales Pace: 2.4 Date Opened: 16-Feb Remaining: 143 Model: 16-Jun Closed: 31 Adjacent to Scotland Run GC clubhouse w/outdoor pool planned Superior to Site QD: 0 75% get sunrm $14k retail The Village Grande at Camelot/D.R. Horton Glassboro 08028/Gloucester Cty 14 Miles From Site Product: SFD YTD Sales: 48 Units: 450 Total Sales: 437 Lot Size: 55' x 113' Sales Pace: 3.0 Date Opened: Nov-05 Remaining: 13 9 QDs avail 5 yr tax abatement - pay 40% of taxes 1st yr + 10% ea yr Superior to Site Closed: 423 18k sf clbhs - pool, fitness, game rm, library, bocce Montebello/J.S. Hovnanian West Berlin 08091/Berlin Twp/Camden Cty 14.5 Miles From Site Product: SFD YTD Sales: 46 Units: 348 Total Sales: 225 Lot Size: 55 x 100 Sales Pace: 2.0 Date Opened: Jun-08 Remaining: 123 14,000 sq ft clubhouse indoor & outdoor pools Superior to Site Closed: 201 opt 2nd floor/std attic storage The Preserve at Weatherby/McKee Homes Swedesboro 08085, Gloucester County 26.5 Miles From Site Product: SFD YTD Sales: 0 Units: 239 Total Sales: 0 Lot Size: 60'x110' Sales Pace: Date Opened: Oct-17 Remaining: 239 Superior to Site Closed: 0 Models Mar/Apr ‘18 * Best Seller + Model Home Source: Lisa Price & Associates Feasibility Analysis 18 www.powermovesproperties.com
PRODUCT PRICING ADDITIONAL $
BR/BA/ Garage
Den/Flex/ Rear, Side Price/ Avg Avg Monthly
Model Loft/Bsmt Front Sq Ft Base Price Incentives Sq Ft Premiums Options HOA Taxes
Pinehurst 3/2/0 2F 1,577 $231,900 * $147.05 $2,000 $50,000 $115 $639
Oakmont 3/2/0 2F 1,668 $238,900 $143.23 $659
Alcott* 3/2/0 D 2F 1,744 $247,900 $142.14 $5,000 $684
Turnberry 2/2/0 D 2F 1,818 $253,900 $139.66 $700
Prestwick 3/2/0 D 2F 1,922 $257,900 $134.18 $711
St. Andrews+* 3/2/0 2F 2,032 $267,900 $131.84 $10,500 $739
*20-25% off structural options &
40% off décor options
1 year social membership to CC
Community Averages: 1,794 $249,733 $139.68 Avg Closed $330k
Brookhaven+ 2/2/0 2F 1,558 $289,700 $50,000 $185.94 $3,000 $205 $789
Chelsea+ 2/2/0 2F 1,558 s/o
Deerfield+ 2/2/0 S 2F 1,931 $312,300 $161.73
Savannah+ 2/2/0 2F 1,930 s/o
Eden-2 sty+* 2/2/1 S 2F 2,261 $318,990 $141.08
Coventry* 2/2/0 2F 1,738 $326,010 $187.58 $10,000
5 yr tax abatement- 40% 1st yr
1,829 $311,750 $169.08 Avg Closed $323,640
Picasso 3/2/0 2F 1,758 $301,900 * $171.73 $1,000 $25,000 $154 $923
DaVinci 2/2/0 D 2F 1,818 $317,900 $174.86 $971
Fresco 3/2/0 2F 1,985 $329,900 $166.20 $1,008
Monet 3/2/0 2F 2,136 $342,900 $160.53 $1,048
Vienna+ 3/2/0 2F 2,138 $346,900 $162.25 $10,000 $30,000 $1,060
* 20% off options
Avg Annual $383k/$173
Community Averages: 1,967 $327,900 $167.12 Closed sf
Tucker 2/2/0 2F 1,498 $299,900 $10,000 $200.20 $0 $275 $667
Piper+ 2/2/0 2F 1,627 $309,900 $190.47
Remington 2/2/0 2F 1,754 $315,900 $180.10 $4,000
Jackson+ 3/2/0 2F 1,796 $323,900 $180.35 $7,500 $833
Community Averages: 1,669 $312,400 $187.78
^ 2nd Floor Master Bedroom
Source: Lisa Price & Associates Feasibility Analysis
www.powermovesproperties.com 19GLOUCESTER & CAMDEN COUNTY RENTAL COMPS SUMMARYJANUARY 2018
Small 1 BR Large 1BR 1BR + Small 2BR
Studio
< 800 Sq. Ft. > 800 Sq. Ft. Den or Loft < 1,200 Sq. Ft.
Community From To From To From To From To From To
Gloucester County
Barclay Glen $1,325 $1,450 $1,425 $1,575 $1,725 $1,775
Essex Chase $1,625 $1,775
Pond View Apartments at Weatherby
Camden County
Enclave @ Winslow*
Taylor Woods* $1,230 $1,279 $1,419 $1,449
Glen Eyre $1,315 $1,540
Averages $1,278 $1,450 $1,352 $1,575 $1,521 $1,635
Small 1 BR Large 1BR 1BR + Small 2BR
Studio
< 800 Sq. Ft. > 800 Sq. Ft. Den or Loft < 1,200 Sq. Ft.
Community From To From To From To From To From To
Gloucester County
Barclay Glen 935 1,156 1,025 1,354 1,122 1,122
Essex Chase 1,140 1,120
Pond View Apartments at Weatherby
Camden County
Enclave @ Winslow*
Taylor Woods* 825 954 1,133 1,188
Glen Eyre 1,015 1,167
Averages 880 1,156 990 1,354 1,103 1,149
Small 1 BR Large 1BR 1BR + Small 2BR
Studio
< 800 Sq. Ft. > 800 Sq. Ft. Den or Loft < 1,200 Sq. Ft.
Community From To From To From To From To From To
Gloucester County
Barclay Glen $1.42 $1.25 $1.39 $1.16 $1.54 $1.58
Essex Chase $1.43 $1.58
Pond View Apartments at Weatherby
Camden County
Enclave @ Winslow*
Taylor Woods* $1.49 $1.34 $1.25 $1.22
Glen Eyre $1.30 $1.32
Averages $1.46 $1.25 $1.37 $1.16 $1.38 $1.43
Source: Lisa Price & Associates Feasibility Analysis
20 www.powermovesproperties.comMONTHLY RENT
Large 2BR 2BR + 3BR or 3BR+ Overall
> 1,200 Sq. Ft. Den or Loft or TH Den or Loft or TH Average
Community From To From To From To From To
Gloucester County
Barclay Glen $1,550 $1,975 $1,750 $1,576 $1,790
Essex Chase $1,675 $1,975 $1,725 $1,850 $1,750 $1,793
Pond View Apartments at Weatherby $1,495 $1,795 $1,495 $1,895 $1,699
Camden County
Enclave @ Winslow* $1,795 $1,845 $1,995 $2,095 $1,895 $1,970
Taylor Woods* $1,729 $1,421
Glen Eyre $1,975 $2,025 $1,594 $1,461
Averages $1,573 $1,915 $1,748 $1,904 $1,862 $1,656 $1,754
UNIT SQUARE FOOTAGE
Large 2BR 2BR + 3BR or 3BR+ Overall
> 1,200 Sq. Ft. Den or Loft or TH Den or Loft or TH Average
Community From To From To From To
Gloucester County
Barclay Glen 1,215 1,425 1,420 1,198
Essex Chase 1,240 1,350 1,380 1,530 1,278
Pond View Apartments at Weatherby 1,342 1,560 1,368 1,835 1,490
Camden County
Enclave @ Winslow* 1,495 1,495 1,655 1,655 1,575
Taylor Woods* 1,317 1,110
Glen Eyre 1,503 1,714 1,246
Averages 1,266 1,445 1,433 1,644 1,486 1,316
LEASE PRICE/SQ. FT.
Large 2BR 2BR + 3BR or 3BR+ Overall
> 1,200 Sq. Ft. Den or Loft or TH Den or Loft or TH Average
Community From To From To From To From To
Gloucester County
Barclay Glen $1.28 $1.39 $1.23 $1.32 $1.40
Essex Chase $1.35 $1.46 $1.25 $1.21 $1.38 $1.45
Pond View Apartments at Weatherby $1.11 $1.15 $1.09 $1.03 $1.14
Camden County
Enclave @ Winslow* $1.20 $1.23 $1.21 $1.27 $1.20 $1.25
Taylor Woods* $1.31 $1.32
Glen Eyre $1.31 $1.18 $1.29 $1.35
Averages $1.25 $1.33 $1.22 $1.16 $1.26 $1.28 $1.36
Source: Lisa Price & Associates Feasibility Analysis
www.powermovesproperties.com 21PROPOSED COMMUNITIES
While there is an extensive pipeline of proposed communities in Monroe Bruce Paparone has plans to start 192 55’ wide active adult homes at
Township, we believe the timing for new communities to come on line Country Village at Whitehall with starting prices from the low $200s with
will occur at a moderate pace. Monroe Township offers the marketplace closed prices projected in the mid $200s.
a unique scenario with the availability of land with water and sewer in a
In addition to the pipeline below, Woodmont Properties will develop
favorable development climate (from the municipality). These attributes
Washington Square which will include a 270 market rate rental
are difficult to find within close proximity to a major metropolitan area.
community (+60 COAH rentals) and 100 for sale 20’ wide townhomes
D.R. Horton will begin sales in the spring for 38 20’ wide 3-story by Ryan from the mid-$200s located off Hurffville Cross Keys Road
townhomes priced from $189k to $199k at the Woodview site. Ryan in superior Washington Township. There are also at least 2 rental
Homes has an agreement for 207 20’ wide townhomes at Hamilton communities seeking approval in superior Gloucester Township.
Greene located at Tuckahoe Road and Main Street and will release
A pipeline chart with additional detail for planned communities within
homes from the upper $180s for their “Simply Ryan” product line with
Monroe Township can be found on the following page.
closed sales projected in the $220s.
PROPOSED FOR SALE & RENTAL RESIDENTIAL UNITS MONROE TOWNSHIP, GLOUCESTER COUNTY,
NEW JERSEYJANUARY 2018
Market Active
Market Rate For Sale Active Adult For Sale Rate Adult
Property Name/ Type/No. MF MF Rental Rental Total Projected
Developer of Stories SFD TH Units* Condo SFD TH Units* Condo Units Units Units Status Start Location
Stirling Glen II/TD
117 117 Approved Fries Mill Rd
Bank-Schatz
Tuckahoe Rd;
Woodview/D.R. prices from
20' W 3 sty 38 38 Approved SP '18
Horton $189k to $199k;
20' wide
Spring Ridge/
37 37 Approved Winslow Rd
HRTJ, LLC
Morgan Landing/
75' x 125' 82 82 Approved Morgan Rd
Ken Schatz Dev
Equestrian
Farms/Totol 38 38 Approved Winslow Rd
Holdings, LLC
Country Village at Whitehall Rd;
55 192 192 Approved 2018
Whitehall/Schatz, 48 COAH units
Bruce & Don
Paparone
Pin Oak Estates/ Preliminary
75' x 125' 89 89 Ruckahoe Rd
Ken Schatz approval
Smithfield
Glassboro-
Estates/Bruc 1/2 acre 173 173 Approved
Cross Keys Rd
Paparone
Route 322 Asso./ Preliminary Route 322 &
20' W 79 79
Manaka approval Fires Mill Rd.
Blaze Mill/Don
20' & 24' Fries Mill &
Paparone & 244 244 Approved
W Glassboro Rds
Schatz
Preliminary Berlin Cross
Patrongolo Site multifamiily 400 400
approval Keys Rd
Hamilton Greene/ Tuckahoe Rd &
20' W 207 207 Approved 2018
Ryan Homes Main St
Philadelphia Winslow &
10k sf lots 102 102 Approved
Suburban Dev Malaga Rds
Grandview Mews/ Preliminary
78 78 Grandview Ave
Schatz approval
Total Market Area 521 646 0 0 309 0 0 0 400 0 1,876
Approved 259 489 0 0 309 0 0 0 0 0 1,057
Source: Lisa Price & Associates Feasibility Analysis
22 www.powermovesproperties.comANALYSIS OF MARKET OPPORTUNITY
FOR SALE • Increased employment and escalating rents spurring confidence for
While the recovery from the “Great Recession” has been lengthy new home purchases.
and protracted for the residential market in Gloucester County and • Active Adult/Age Targeted
Southern New Jersey, activity is beginning to pick-up with increased
sales activity. Permit activity in Gloucester County peaked in 2005 and • Demand for new active adult communities will be stimulated by the
has been waffling since then reflecting the peripheral marketplace and following pull factors:
underscoring the delayed recovery. • Increased in-migration to Gloucester County from areas to the north
Monroe Township will benefit from the lack of developable land located including Camden & Burlington Counties, as well as buyers moving
to the north and west in other built out towns that are in closer proximity back from the State of Delaware and in-migration from other areas
to Philadelphia creating in-migration for buyers who want moderately as people follow grandchildren - “baby chasers”
priced new homes. Monroe Township offers the marketplace a unique • Strong activity for the existing home market including a decreased
scenario with the availability of land with water and sewer in a favorable supply level and price stabilization have created opportunities for
development climate (from the municipality). These attributes are difficult the 55+ target market to sell their existing homes
to find within close proximity to a major metropolitan area.
• Low supply of active listings within existing resale active adult
The attached market is experiencing increased interest from both first- communities
time buyers and empty nesters. Sales activity has increased by the family
formation and move-up buyers YOY for detached communities. Active • Maintenance-free lifestyle community
adult communities also reveal an increase in YOY activity with the largest • Opportunities for socialization and recreation provided by a 55+
community, Village Grande at Camelot, approaching sell-out. lifestyle community
Credit remains the top inhibitor of new home sales with many • The lack of newly introduced large scale active adult communities
communities revealing they could double sales if interested prospects since the Great Recession
could qualify. Many builders have begun offering a Student Debt Relief
• Minimal pipeline for active adult communities in Southern New
Homeownership Program as a tool to improve credit.
Jersey
The pull factors for Cedar Creek include the following:
• The preference for new homes over existing
• Place making with the residential integrated into a mixed-use
• Premium homesites that include a wooded backdrop
development.
• High concentration of mature households within the region
• Proximity to highway network and employment corridors including
locally and Philadelphia.
RENTAL
• The ability to offer a variety of moderately priced product types
attracting a wide cross section of buyers. While our analysis reveals low vacancies and strong effective rents,
turnover is on the rise with the top reason for move-outs being new
• The high concentration of owner occupied households in Gloucester home purchases followed by job relocation. South Jersey rental
County (close to 80%) indicating a strong preference towards for operators reveal that qualifying and credit worthiness is a bigger issue
sale housing. for rental communities in Gloucester County compared to more affluent
• Nearby rental stock that will provide first time buyers for the subject areas to the north. Communities over 250 units have experienced
site. issues with stabilization with protracted lease-up and have been
forced to offer discounts. These larger communities were impacted by
• The ability to offer on-site amenities that will provide instant lifestyle competing renewals while they continued to deliver new units creating
for the community. the need for incentives and exacerbating the drag on effective rents.
• Proximity to shopping and healthcare in the immediate area. Rental communities reveal increased interest from local empty nesters
who are attracted to “commitment light” housing alternatives. Young
• A marketplace that is attractive to starter households and empty professionals including those working in the local area including Camden
nesters/retirees. and Burlington Counties as well as dual income split commuters in
• Ability to create maintenance-free living. Atlantic County.
• Wide cross section of target markets including young couples, Demand for new apartments has been spurred by the following drivers:
singles, divorcees, families and empty nesters. We believe the • Favorable demographics and steady increases in employment
renewed interest from these target markets will create a cataclysmic supporting household formation.
shift in the new home market as sales activity gains momentum.
• The region’s large population that are college age and recent college
• Opportunity to cross sell with multiple product offerings. graduates that will remain in the area seeking local employment.
• High concentration of out-migration from adjacent Camden County • The average age of new home buyers has increased to 33 as people
where prices and taxes are higher and opportunities for moderately- are renting an average of 6 years before purchasing a new home.
priced new homes are less plentiful. This is up from 2.6 years in 1970.
Source: Lisa Price & Associates Feasibility Analysis
www.powermovesproperties.com 23• Accelerated hiring in degreed fields that will help to retain a larger • Vacancy increased during the third quarter to 4.9 percent, the
share of graduates from local colleges and universities, creating highest rate since 2014, a 140-basis point increase due to increased
new rental housing demand and exerting downward pressure on supply with many experts projecting increased vacancies.
vacancy in the Philadelphia Metro.
• Despite the increased supply throughout the Philadelphia Region,
• The high concentration of “renters by choice” and “terminal renters”. effective rents increased 4.5% YOY in 2017 on the heels of a 3.9%
increase that occurred in 2016. We understand from local rental
• The trend of empty nester target markets selling their existing home
operators that increases in the immediate market area are at a
and renting.
much lower rate.
• The “Great Delay” that is occurring in the aftermath of the “Great
• Escalating rents and low vacancies in Philadelphia due to increased
Recession” where Millennials are postponing purchasing homes due
demand is creating out-migration to more affordable suburban
to job polarization, student loans and a strong desire for technology
Philadelphia locations that are considered commutable. A study by
and travel.
Apartment List found that over 50% of Philadelphia renters are cost
• Demographic and lifestyle changes including delay of marriage and burdened in that they pay more than 30% of their monthly income
postponing children that creates more demand for rentals. on rent. Additionally, the survey found that more than 31% of Philly
renters are severely cost burdened, spending more than 50% of
• The household “de-bundling” effect, spurred by the prime renter
their salaries on rent.
age cohort of 20 to 34 who continue to capture a high percentage
of the increase in job gains. • The following trends are creating barriers to entry for the supply of
new rental communities:
• The oldest echo boomers (Generation “Y”) are now in their 30s
and will continue to create additional demand for new rentals as • Rising construction costs
they become employed and move away from their parent’s homes
• Increased land prices
or shared living arrangements in search of “commitment light”
housing. • Shortage of skilled labor
• Tighter lending criteria creating barriers to entry for would be • Tightening of lending reducing access to financial resources for
buyers, many of whom are forced to rent including terminal renters apartment developers
who are plagued with bad credit issues.
• The fairly high concentration of foreclosures in Gloucester County,
1 in every 429 homes (ranked 6th in the state based on November
2017 data), that will force households to rent until their credit is
restored.
*residential single family development inspirational image
Source: Lisa Price & Associates Feasibility Analysis
24 www.powermovesproperties.comRECOMMENDATIONS
FOR SALE RECOMMENDATIONS PRICE RECOMMENDATIONS CEDAR CREEK
As previously mentioned, Monroe Township will benefit from the lack of SINGLE FAMILY DETACHED MONROE TOWNSHIP,
developable land located to the north and west that is in closer proximity GLOUCESTER COUNTY, NEW JERSEY JANUARY 2018
to Philadelphia creating in-migration for buyers who want moderately
priced new homes. The availability of land that has water and sewer No. of Square Base $ Per
Product/Model Units Footage Price Sq. Ft.
and is development friendly is of benefit to both builders and new
2 Story Detached w/Unfinished Basements
home buyers. During periods of economic expansion, out-migration
into Gloucester County occurs at an accelerated pace when there are A 3BR/2.5BA 1,680 $229,990 $136.90
opportunities to purchase moderately priced new homes. The subject B 4BR/2.5BA 1,950 $244,990 $125.64
site will benefit from organic growth within the surrounding area from C 4BR/2.5BA 2,800 $259,990 $92.85
rentals, condos and townhomes. In-migration from nearby Philadelphia, Average/Total 100-110 2,143 $244,990 $118.46
Camden and Burlington Counties is also expected.
Source: Lisa Price & Associates, LLC 01/15/18
Townhomes Optional expenditures are projected to average 10%.
• We recommend 20’ wide two-story on slab value priced product
Active Adult/Age Targeted Homes
with the flexibility to offer a three story with the lower level and
garage above grade if pricing escalates. There is pent up demand for the active adult/age targeted segment of
the market. The recent hard winter will create additional demand for
• We strongly recommend packaging lawn maintenance and snow these types of homes. The approaching sell-out for D.R. Horton’s Village
removal into the HOA. The target buyer(s) are highly motivated by Grande at Camelot with a 2017 sales pace of 4.4 per month demonstrates
a maintenance-free lifestyle and this will protect your streetscape strong demand for this product type. We recommend the following:
and curb appeal.
• A tax abatement PILOT program to spur activity.
• Maintenance-free living with amenities.
PRICE RECOMMENDATIONS CEDAR CREEK FOR SALE
TOWNHOMES MONROE TOWNSHIP, GLOUCESTER • Buyers demand open floor plans including great rooms and flex
space for studies and/or dining rooms. Two sleeping areas on the
COUNTY, NEW JERSEY JANUARY 2018 first floor is preferred and many buyers do not want the bedrooms
No. of Square Base $ Per on adjoining walls.
Product/Model Units Footage Price Sq. Ft.
• Finished attic space with full stairs is a popular option with buyers
2 Story 20' Wide Townhomes – Surface Parking
paying close to $10k for this feature that pushes margins.
A 3BR/2BA Interior 1,220 $184,990 $151.63
B 3BR/2BA End 1,220 $194,990 $159.83 • Combined home office and media room (man cave) environments
are increasingly popular.
Average/Total 120 to 140 1,220 $189,990 $155.73
Source: Lisa Price & Associates, LLC 01/15/18 • Second floor options that include a junior master bedroom or guest
room with in-suite bath or at least dual access from the bathroom to
Optional expenditures are projected to average 5 to 7%.
a bedroom (this is also strongly recommended on the first floor for
the second bedroom). Homes with optional second floor represent
Detached Homes
70% of sales at Stirling Glen (+$29k to $38k retail).
• We recommend offering a moderately priced detached product on
• Separate areas for a dual home office scenario including a niche
small lots (60’ to 65’ wide by 110’ minimum).
space for a desk.
• Small single family detached designs have evolved to include flex
• Walk-in closets or at least closets with standard doors (in lieu of
space in lieu of formal living and dining areas so that buyers can
bi-fold or sliding doors) in secondary bedrooms.
incorporate home offices, children’s playrooms, media rooms and
other uses. • Sunrooms and screened porches are popular structural options
(75% take this option at Stirling Glen +$14k retail – currently
• Stairs that are pulled back from the foyer have been well received
and improve the design and livability of floor plans. discounted to $11,200+/-).
• Laundry rooms on the bedroom level are also an emerging trend.
• Loft areas outside the bedroom to accommodate children’s play
areas and homework zones are increasing in popularity.
• Optional finished basements will be especially well received on
walk-out basement homesites with many builders finishing as an
incentive.
Source: Lisa Price & Associates Feasibility Analysis
www.powermovesproperties.com 25PRICE RECOMMENDATIONS CEDAR CREEK 55+/ from areas to the north including Camden and Burlington Counties as
AGE TARGETED MONROE TOWNSHIP, GLOUCESTER well as buyers moving back from the State of Delaware and in-migration
from other areas as people follow grandchildren - “baby chasers” will
COUNTY, NEW JERSEY JANUARY 2018
be a factor.
No. of Square Base $ Per
Product/Model The rental profile is expected to include singles/roommates, couples
Units Footage Price Sq. Ft.
(starter households) and divorcees which will contribute a high
55+/Age Targeted On Slab
concentration of the tenant mix. Terminal renters including mature
A 3BR/2BA 1,660 $229,990 $138.55
downsizers who prefer commitment light housing will be additional
B 3BR/2BA 1,865 $239,990 $128.68 sources of tenants. Transient renters, including those whose credit is
C 3BR/2.5BA 2,050 $259,990 $126.82 negatively impacted, will be present.
Average/Total 120-140 1,858 $243,323 $131.35
DEMAND
Source: Lisa Price & Associates, LLC 01/15/18
Student debt, reducing additional borrowing capacity, is constraining the
Optional expenditures are projected to average 10% to 15%. “for sale” housing market and increasing demand for rental housing.
While rising student debt makes homeownership more difficult, creating
RENTAL RECOMMENDATIONS
additional and/or prolonged demand for rental housing, it has the
While demand for new rentals has flourished since the “Great Recession” potential to negatively impact rental affordability for low- and middle-
we are cautious about adding new rental stock to the subject site. In income renters and renters in more expensive markets.
addition to the 400 units at the Patrongolo Site in Monroe, there are
at least 4 other new proposed rental sites in superior Washington, A recent study by RCLCO revealed that between 2000 and 2014, the
Woolwich and Gloucester Townships. The challenge of credit worthiness total volume of outstanding federal student debt in the U.S. nearly
in this portion of New Jersey gives rental developers caution to pause quadrupled to surpass $1.1 trillion, the number of student loan borrowers
when considering a new rental community in Monroe Township. With more than doubled to 42 million, and loan default rates among student
an increase in turnover with the escalating trend towards renters borrowers rose to their highest levels in 20 years. The confluence of an
transitioning to homeownership and moderately priced housing stock unprecedented level of student debt outstanding with double-digit default
available in Monroe we believe demand and activity in the market will rates on student loans has created widespread uncertainty as to whether
shift towards homeownership. the United States is facing a “student loan crisis.” Some economists
have predicted that this indebtedness will potentially impact the broader
A small component of rental townhomes could be considered as many economy by reducing consumer spending and potentially limiting long-
new “for sale” townhome communities reveal interest for this product term wealth creation opportunities for members of Generation Y.
type.
Some “for sale” builders have begun offering Student Debt Relief
Homeownership Programs.
RENTAL RECOMMENDATIONSCEDAR CREEK RENTAL
For Sale
TOWNHOMES MONROE TOWNSHIP, GLOUCESTER
COUNTY, NEW JERSEY JANUARY 2018 As demonstrated in the following charts, the subject site will need to
capture less than 1 percent of the target market between the ages of 25
No. of Square Base $ Per to 64 (the target market for this community) for those earning greater
Product/Model Units Footage Price Sq. Ft. than $50,000, as well as those earning greater than $75,000 in the
3BR/2.5BA Interior 1,500 $1,750 $1.17 market area. The estimates below are based on conservative projections
3BR/2.5BA End 1,625 $1,875 $1.15 with the market area supplying up to 70% of the purchasers for the
Average/Total 80 to 100 1,563 $1,813 $1.16 subject site.
Source: Lisa Price & Associates, LLC 01/13/18
TARGET BUYER/RENTER PROFILE MARKET DEPTH ANALYSIS TARGET MARKET
Target buyers of market rate for sale homes will include young couples HOUSEHOLDS WITH INCOME OF $50,000+
(starter household), singles, families and divorcees. We expect first time
buyers (renters and those living with parents) and first time move-up. A 2017 2022
high concentration of buyers is anticipated from the local area including Total Households Age 25-64 213,765 205,586
Gloucester and Camden Counties. In-migration from nearby Philadelphia Total Income Qualified Households Age 25-64 153,521 154,477
may also occur. Propensity to Own 121,282 122,037
As with other markets that experience an increase in new construction, For Sale Homes 487 487
we anticipate an increase in ethnic diversity. Potential Owners from Outside the Market Area 146 146
Mature/active adult buyers who are able to sell their existing home will be Owners from Market Area 341 341
a captive audience if first floor master bedroom plans or an active adult Capture Rate 0.28% 0.28%
community is available. Increased in-migration to Gloucester County
Source: Lisa Price & Associates Feasibility Analysis
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