A RANDOM SURVEY OF THE USE OF WEATHER FORECASTS BY FARMERS IN OTAGO
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46 Weather and Climate (1986) 6: 46-56
A RANDOM SURVEY OF THE USE
OF WEATHER FORECASTS BY FARMERS IN OTAGO
B. B. Fitzharris
and
G. W. Kearsley
Department of Geography
University of Otago
ABSTRACT
A random survey of 343 Otago farmers indicates a high level of interest in
weather forecasts, primarily for the planning of day to day farm activities.
Television One and commercial radio are the most important sources o f
forecast information. There is some mistrust of forecasts' accuracy, especially
at the local level, and this is reflected in a request for more local forecasts, as
well as for long range forecasts. While most farmers thought they understood
the terms used in weather forecasts, many, in fact, did not do so. On the other
hand, confidence in their ability to understand a simple weather map seemed
to be justified.
INTRODUCTION as shown in the newspapers.
Although farming makes a large contribution This second paper extends the study to a
to New Zealand's overseas income, day to day rural area in which farmers, specifically, are
operations and economic output are highly randomly sampled. A survey is designed t o
influenced by weather. However, little is known examine the following questions:
about the needs and attitudes of farmers, who
are nevertheless one o f the more important (a) H o w do farmers use the weather forecast?
consumers of weather information. A n earlier (b) What is the source of farmers' information
on weather forecasts?
survey examined the public use o f weather
forecasts by the urban population of Dunedin (c) I s the information adequate to meet their
needs?
(Kearsley and Fitzharris, 1984). The results
indicated high interest in weather forecasts, but (d) What changes w o u l d farmers l i k e i n
mainly for personal rather than work-related existing forecasts?
use. Television and radio were the main sources (e) H o w well do they understand the weather
of weather information. In general, the urban map and the terms used in worded fore-
casts?
public were satisfied that forecasts met their
requirements, apart from a desire f o r more Otago was chosen to examine these questions
local information. Some terms used i n the because i t experiences such changeable con-
forecasts were poorly comprehended, although ditions that farmers frequently talk about the
over half of the random sample of 400 people weather, u p o n which their operations are
claimed that they understood the weather map heavily dependent, and because i t includes aA Random Survey 47
wide range of climate and farming types. In the found that although there was much weather
east, intensive grassland farming and some information available, its dissemination was
cropping predominate. I n the interior, large inadequate. Radio was the primary source of
high-country sheep runs contrast with smaller, weather information (39%) followed by tele-
irrigated orchards. T h i s i s a n environment vision (33%), while use o f the newspaper or
where meteorological hazards such as drought, direct use o f the weather office was seldom
frost and snow have caused large economic important (less than 5% each). About 65% of
losses. I n objective terms, the climate ranges farmers said that they checked a forecast daily;
from equable and moist on the east coast to in general, they were satisfied with the accuracy
semi-continental, a n d semi-arid i n Central of the forecasts with over 7007o believing that
Otago. These climates, a n d t h e gradations those for temperature, rainfall and frost were
between them, are all covered by the sample of " a v e r a g e " accuracy o r w e r e " v e r y
upon which this survey is based. accurate". W h i l e farmers expressed some
interest in receiving more weather information,
PREVIOUS SURVEYS O N W E AT H E R FORECASTS they were not prepared to pay for it.
Our earlier paper (1984) reviewed t h e Vining e t al. (1984) discovered a similar
literature concerning the public use of weather reluctance in their survey of 255 Texas farmers.
information, noting that most studies involved In f a c t several commented that sources o f
small samples, o r else were not at all repre- weather information, "especially forecasts, are
sentative o f t h e general population. F o r so poor that they could not justify paying for
example, a large number use the responses of the information". However, i n general they
students t o questionnaires (Landsberg, 1940; recognised the importance and usefulness o f
Canadian Meteorological Service, 1 9 4 9 ; reliable weather information. I n Texas, the
Sherrod and Neuberger, 1958; de Freitas and television was the most important medium by
Wells, 1982). One notable exception is the work which farmers obtained weather information,
of McBoyle (1974) who used random sampling followed by personal observation and radio.
procedures. H e f o u n d t h a t public under- The utility or value of weather information
standing o f official terminology is confused, to agricultural producers has been documented
often to the point of being incorrect. In a wide both i n New Zealand (e.g., Maunder, 1981,
review of studies on the interpretation of public 1984) and overseas (e.g., Love, 1963; Dalton,
weather forecasts, Murphy and Brown (1983a) 1974; O m a r, 1980). F r o s t forecasts were
also found that the ability o f people to recall estimated to be worth $2020*/ha to an apple
the content of worded forecasts is quite limited. orchardist in eastern Washington state (Katz et
In another recent paper Murphy and Brown al., 1982). Tice and Clouser (1982) found that
(1983b) stress that i t " I s desirable t o obtain net incomes of Indiana corn producers could be
responses to the questionnaire from a random increased 9-1407o by using current weather in-
sample (or subsample) o f the general public", formation a n d probability forecasts. I t i s
although they themselves interviewed the cap- therefore surprising to discover that relatively
tive and unrepresentative audiences of students few studies of the use, needs and understanding
and professional meteorologists. T h e y also of weather forecasts b y farmers have been
point o u t t h a t since t h e vast majority o f undertaken. This is especially so in New Zea-
weather information is communicated i n the land, a country which is still heavily dependent
form o f spoken or written words, "studies o f upon agriculture. W i t h increasing accent on
the interpretation a n d understanding o f horticulture, which is particularly susceptible to
forecast terminology would appear to be o f meteorological variation, this neglect becomes
paramount importance", and they make a plea more critical.
for more carefully designed a n d desirable
investigations o f this kind o f forecast and its METHODS
comprehension.
The survey w a s carried o u t u s i n g a
A number o f surveys in the United States questionnaire form prepared i n consultation
have examined the role of weather information with the New Zealand Meteorological Service.
in t h e farming community. G e t z (1978)
questioned 400 farmers in New Jersey, as well
as agricultural industries and radio stations. He In US$ at 1977.48 A Random Survey
It is deliberately similar in the general thrust of attended dog hydatid clinics. Since all farm
its questions to that used in our previous study dogs a r e required b y l a w t o b e dosed
(Kearsley and Fitzharris, 1984), but modified to periodically t h i s procedure i s unlikely t o
take i n t o account t h e special activities o f produce significant bias.
farmers and the availability of different radio Using the methods discussed in our earlier
stations. A total of 27 questions were asked (see paper, a sample size o f 400 would allow
Appendix). Farmers' use of weather forecasts confidence limits o f ±5070 on sample values at
was examined in Questions 1, 3 and 4, and their the 95% level, even in the worst case response
source i n question 2. Questions 5, 6 and 8 where the population was evenly split, 50-50.
examine the perceived adequacy o f forecasts,
and those responses of farmers are related to
questions o n needs, further requirements as
well as the changes that they might desire (7, 15,
16, 17, 18, 19). Understanding of the terms of
the forecast arid weather map are tested i n
questions 9, 10, 11, 12, 13, 14, 20, 21, 22.
Finally, a series of questions (23, 24, 25, 26, 27)
defines the nature of the sample.
In some o f the questions, response options
are o f a qualitative nature, i n w h i c h
respondents were asked to indicate the extent to
which requirements are met o r accuracy is
achieved; questions 5 and 6, for example, are of
this type. These have a disadvantage in that
there is a tendency for respondents to choose a
middle, o r non-committal position, especially
when they have little real interest i n t h e
question being asked. In this survey, which is
concerned with a broad review of attitudes over
a wide area, it was not possible to carry out the
in-depth, probing kind o f personal interview
that might eliminate this median bias effect. Fig. I : Location Map.
However, since the response to such questions
were often strongly skewed, with the middle
RESUbS
position often not the modal one, i t was felt
that any bias effect was not pronounced. 1. N A T U R E O F T H E S A M P L E
The questionnaires were administered per- As in the previous study (Kearsley and Fitz-
sonally to 400 farmers whenever possible, but harris, 1984), profile data were collected both
in some cases the farmer was too busy when the to check the validity of the sample and to per-
interviewer called, so i t was completed and mit cross-tabulation against survey responses,
returned b y post. Because o f this personal where i t seems that there is a dichotomy o f
contact, refusal rates were low, and an 86 per opinion or attitude.
cent response was obtained. Farmers t o be
interviewed were chosen randomly in August Because the sample is specific to the farming
1984 from the following areas shown in Fig. 1: population, i t is not possible to compare the
Taieri Plain, Tokomairiro Plain, and Shag sample's profile with the census of population.
Valley (mainly intensive pastoral farming); However, i t i s possible t o compare sample
Upper Clutha Valley and Maniototo Plain characteristics w i t h known parameters t h a t
(extensive pastoral farming, some irrigation); relate t o farming in Otago, such as the dis-
and the Cromwell-Alexandra district (irrigated tribution o f farm sizes and types, as well as
orchards and other small holdings). I n most known characteristics of farmers on a national
cases a country road was randomly chosen, and regional scale, including such variables as
then farmers interviewed at every third house. age and education. No significant differences
Otherwise, farmers were interviewed as they were observed in any of the parameters, and itA Random Survey 49
was therefore reasonable t o infer that the There is a bias towards small farm sizes; this
sample is indeed representative of the regional is associated w i t h orcharding and part-time
farming population. farming, as referred to above. Larger farm sizes
Since farming is still a predominantly male are wholly associated with traditional sheep
industry, sex of respondents was not asked, but farming, usually including substantial tracts of
respondents were found t o fall into the age High Country pasture i n a relatively unim-
categories given in Table 1. Educational levels proved condition. There is thus a tendency for
are recorded in Table 2. two groups to emerge from the sample: that
comprising smaller units with a range of types
Quite a h i g h proportion, 3 4 p e r cent, represented, b u t especially geared towards
described themselves as part-time farmers, the orcharding and part-time farming; and that of
remaining two-thirds (6507o) were full-time. larger traditional pastoral units. These are not
This is because the sample included farmers absolutely differentiated, however, and many
from t h e Dunedin urban fringe and horti- intermediate farms are to be found.
culturalists and small farmers from Central
Otago. In the former area, part-time and hobby 2. USE OF FORECASTS (questions 1 and 3)
farming of small holdings and ten-acre blocks is
quite commonly paired with a job i n town, Weather forecasts are o f practical use t o
while the extensive construction project on the some two thirds of the sample, and o f interest
Upper Clutha and rapidly increasing tourism to almost all of the rest. Sixty-six percent used
have provided similar opportunities, notably them as part o f farming, and a further 18 per
for orchardists and market gardeners in Central cent used them on an informal basis. A further
Otago, especially around Cromwell-Alexandra. 15 percent still "took some interest", and only
Extensive forestry developments in the region one percent were not interested at all. Full time
mean that this pattern is likely to expand in the farmers used them most for farm purposes.
future. Farm types and sizes are set out in Table This pattern carries over when requirements
3. for forecasts are analysed, both for weekdays
and at weekends, in Table 4. Respondents were
TABLE 1: A G E CATEGORIES OF RESPONDENTS*.
asked t o rank the purposes f o r which they
required forecasts, f r o m t h e f i r s t t o least
important. Not everyone was able to do this,
Category
and a minority chose to list only one purpose,
18 - 25 6
26 - 40 49
41 - 60 34
TABLE 3 : FA R M TYPES A N D SIZES.
Over 60 10
* I n this, and following Tables. the 95 3/4 confidence limits Type
are within -T5,5 o f the tabulated responses. Because of
rounding, totals may not always sum to 100%. Unless Mainly sheep 67
otherwise stated, n = 343. Mainly dairy 4
Mixed crop and grazing 6
Mainly crop 1
TABLE 2 : E D U C AT I O N A L A T T A I N M E N T O F Orchard 13
RESPONDENTS.
Other* 8
Category 070 Size 070
No response 3 Less than 10 acres 13
Left school before 15 11 10 - 50 acres 26
Secondary school, no exams 37 50 - 200 acres 19
School certificate 27 200 - 800 acres 22
University Entrance 11 More than 800 acres 20
Degree 8
Other Tertiary Qualification 2 * D e e r, pigs, poultry, berries, market gardening; equally
represented.50 A Random Survey
while others listed only the first one or two. For together account f o r the vast bulk o f first
this reason, the columns relating to first choice choices, with radio having a very slight edge,
and "did not rank" are particularly significant, although Television One is clearly the single
although the other rank order columns still most popular choice. Television Tw o is, b y
convey a clear picture of relative importance. contrast, clearly the least popular broadcast
During the week, " t o plan day to day farm medium; the commercial private radio station,
work" was by far the most important reason, 4X0, is the least popular radio station, while
the BCNZ National and Commercial stations
cited b y almost two-thirds o f respondents
(64%) and not mentioned by only 17 percent. share first place. This pattern will be affected
"For general information" was the only other by reception difficulties and programme con-
important choice at first rank, at 27 percent, tent. Newspapers were rarely a first, or even a
while " t o increase the economic return from second, choice, and the telephone service was
farming" was ranked second or third by a total only of significance to a very few; 83 percent did
not even bother to rank it.
of 43 percent. Choosing suitable clothing and
planning leisure activities were not important, The time delay in publishing the information
being disregarded by about half, and modally in newspapers clearly reduced the value of this
ranked at third and fourth/fifth respectively. medium. I n Otago papers are issued i n the
"Other" u s e s w e r e insignificant a n d morning and contain a forecast weather map
idiosyncratic. for noon o f the current day, b u t other in-
At weekends, the proportional ranking o f formation is often at least 12 hours old, and
"for general information" were almost exactly often much more. By contrast, the newspaper is
the same, b u t farm related uses, while still immediately a t hand, i f s o desired. T h e
dominant, declined a little in favour of leisure- electronic media are far more up to date, but
time planning, a s might b e expected. T h e their availability is limited to specific time slots.
overall picture, however, i s t h a t farmers Interestingly, the telephone service, which is
regarded the use o f weather forecasts as an always available and regularly updated, was
important part of their farming operations, on used least of all. It therefore seems that farmers
a d a y t o d a y basis, a n d secondly a s a n adjust their behaviour during the day to make
instrument of longer term farm management. sure of hearing or seeing a radio or television
These comments apply both to orchardists and weather forecast.
pastoralists, small and large, and there is no
clear-cut division among farming types. 4 . I M P O R T A N T E L E M E N T S (question 4)
Farmers were asked t o rank the forecast
3. S O U R C E O F FORECAST I N F O R M AT I O N (question elements that were most important t o them
2)
Various sources of weather information are
used (Table 5 ) , b u t t h e electronic media TA B L E 5 : M A I N S O U R C E S O F W E A T H E R F O R E -
CASTS.
TA B L E 4: R E Q U I R E M E N T S F O R W E A T H E R F O R E -
CASTS ( Q U E S T I O N 3). Response Rank Order* ( % ) did not
1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 rank
Purpose Weekdays R a n k Order* (7o) d i d not
1 2 3 4 5 6 rank Radio N Z :
Nat. prog. 20 5 5 3 3 4 1 - 60
General information 27 18 1 8 7 5 25 Radio N Z :
3 11 1 7 13 6 1 50 Corn. prog. 19 1 4 8 6 5 2 46
To choose suitable clothing
1 Radio Otago ( 4 ) ( 0 ) 14 13 1 0 3 4 4 1 52
To plan leisure activities 2 5 11 1 3 1 3 55
TV I 39 3 0 10 3 1 -
To increase economic return 6 31 1 2 5 6 1 41 17
TV2 8 13 17 8 I 2 51
To plan day to day farm
work 64 13 5 2 - 1 7 Newspaper 5 1 0 15 11 6 3 - 51
Other 2 1 1 - - 1 9 5 Telephone call to
Weather Office 1 - 2 1 I 2 8 I 83
* B e c a u s e a s m a l l p r o p o r t i o n o f respondents l i s t e d Other - - - - 1 - - 4 95
reasons as 1 , 2nd = , etc., rows sum t o slightly more
than 100. * A s f o r Table 4.A Random Survey 51
(Table 6). By far the most important element frost forecast and the humidity during the late
was the likelihood o f rain. Two thirds (68070) frost season, as well as detailed individual
made this their first choice, and only seven suggestions relating to all of these and more.
percent failed to rank it. Frost, sunshine and The requests for frost information came only
temperature were all mentioned by two out of from horticulturalists, and, while they repre-
three, with frost probably the most important. sent only one percent or so of the suggestions
It was the second most frequent choice; sun- made by the whole sample, they do indicate a
shine and temperature were typically second specific area o f interest i n t h e orcharding
and third rank choices, important but not o f sector.
the f i r s t p r i o r i t y. W i n d direction w a s No one thought that forecasts were highly
marginally more important than wind speed, accurate, but half (51%) thought that they were
but nearly half the sample did not mention "usually" accurate. Almost all the rest (46%)
them, a n d w i n d values are clearly a l o w said that forecasts were accurate about half the
priority. Finally, some six per cent mentioned time; three per cent said that they were "usually
other elements as a low priority; most of them inaccurate", but no one thought them to be
wished to know about the possibility of snow. completely inaccurate.
These responses are mirrored in perceptions
5. A D E Q U A C Y O F FORECASTS (questions 5, 6 and 8) of the accuracy with which forecasts relate to
Most farmers felt that their needs were met local areas. Fifty-five percent thought that they
by the present types and sources o f forecast did so fairly completely; one percent even
information. A fifth (20%) felt that their needs thought that they did so completely, but no-one
were met completely and a further 42 per cent believed that they never did. However, 40 per-
thought that they were almost completely met. cent thought that forecasts were only partially
About a third (3507o) said t h a t they were accurate f o r their local area; f o u r percent
partially met, but only three per cent felt that believed that they were rarely so.
they were hardly met at all; no one felt that 6. N E E D S A N D F U R T H E R R E Q U I R E M E N T S
their needs were not met at all. (questions 7, 15, 16, 17, 18 and 19)
Thus, there is considerable satisfaction with The time periods for which farmers require
the service provided, but there is still room for accurate forecasts are set out in Table 7, which
improvement as far as about a third of farmers discloses a clear pattern of preference. The bulk
are concerned. About a quarter of respondents of farmers required a one-day or two-day fore-
suggested improvements; eight percent wanted cast, with many (6107o) making those two time
more localised forecasts and a further seven per periods their first two choices. B y contrast,
cent requested greater overall accuracy. Also two-thirds (66%) did not even bother to check
suggested were 3-day local forecasts, long- the six hour response, while 62 percent of those
range television forecasts, greater accuracy in who provide a ranking ranked it last. A twelve-
frost forecasting, continuation o f the spring hour forecast was considered to be rather more
useful, but still half did not even consider it,
and, while it was first choice for a modest 15
TA B L E 6: M O S T I M P O R T A N T E L E M E N T S O F T H E
W E AT H E R F O R E C A S T.
TA B L E 7 : T I M E P E R I O D S P R E F E R R E D F O R A N
Element Rank Order* (o/o) did not A C C U R AT E F O R E C A S T.
I 2 3 4 5 6 7 rank
Frost 17 1 2 1 4 9 4 8 36 Time Period Rank Order
Likelihood o f Rain 68 1 4 6 3 1 7 (07o) did n o t
I 2 3 4 5 rank
Amount o f Sunshine 10 22 1 0 8 10 5 1 35
Temperature 7 20 22 1 4 2 1 34 Next six hours 4 1 2 5 20 66
Wind Speed 4 4 13 1 2 13 8 46 Next twelve hours 15 8 8 17 2 50
Wind Direction 3 12 1 0 9 10 10 47 Next day 36 13 1 5 1 - 35
Other - - - 2 1 4 94 Next t w o days 31 30 8 4 - 27
Longer than t w o days 15 10 1 6 7 8 43
As f o r Table 4.52
A Random Survey
per cent, its modal frequency is fourth. There forecaster, a n d 15 percent suggested both.
was a similar, i f slightly more favourable, Thirteen percent did not respond, indicating
reaction to the suggestion of a period of more some indifference to this question.
than two days, but this, too, was f a r from
popular; one o r two day periods are clearly 7 U N D E R S TA N D I N G O F T H E F O R E C A S T A N D
what is required. W E AT H E R M A P S (questions 9, 10, 11, 12, 13, 14, 20,
Most people seem satisfied with the extent of 21, 22)
weather coverage in all of the media; those who Most people believed that they understood
would like to see a change generally preferred the terms used i n a weather forecast. Forty
more coverage, and virtually no one preferred percent said that they always did; the majority
less. The fact that the no response rate (Table 8) (56%) said that they mostly did, and f o u r
is twice as high f o r the question relating to percent "sometimes" did. No one thought that
newspapers as for any other medium confirms they did not, either often or wholly.
the relative lack of interest expressed above. These assertions are rather more optimistic
There is a reasonably strong desire t o see than may be warranted given farmers answers
more weather information, o n the television to specific questions about the meaning o f
especially. Those who wanted to see more were terms. While 6 4 percent chose the correct
invited (question 16) to say what they would definition f o r " f i n e " (question 10), a quarter
like (Table 9). Since up to 45 per cent o f the (24%) thought that it meant just " n o rain or
sample responded t o t h i s question, i t i s fog" and nine percent that it simply meant "no
apparent that some reorganisation as well as cloud". Two per cent were even prepared to
extension of forecasts is desired. include drizzle and light showers as "fine", and
By contrast, there were few things identified only t w o percent admitted t h a t they were
uncertain.
that farmers thought could be removed. Most
frequently mentioned, however, were the three Only 2 0 percent thought that "scattered
p.m. temperatures, and seven farmers (207o) showers" meant showers in only a small part of
suggested that they could go, but, clearly, few the area; most (62070) thought that i t meant
people want to see anything specifically cut out. showers only part of the time, and a further ten
The "wish list" of farmers given in Table 9 is percent assumed that i t meant light showers
supported b y the specific improvements that only.
were suggested i n response t o question 18 Almost t h r e e quarters (7207o) correctly
included more local forecasts (14%), greater defined "mild" for the winter season, although
detail (707o) and greater accuracy (5070). Also all o f the rest (2707o) believed that i t meant
suggested were more long range forecasts (3070), "average for the time of year". There was less
the use o f satellite photographs (307o) and a certainty about its meaning in summer. The
number of individual suggestions, such as more majority (5807o) chose "average for the time of
notice o f various extreme conditions, which year", b u t a substantial minority (3207o)
together totalled two percent. thought that mild was cooler, and nine percent
For the more detailed information the clear guessed that it meant "warmer than usual for
preference was for a taped forecast accessible the time of year".
by telephone. Fifty-one percent preferred this,
20 percent preferred the chance to speak to a TA B L E 9 : T H E M O S T P O P U L A R R E Q U E S T S F O R
F U RT H E R W E A T H E R I N F O R M AT I O N . ( P E R C E N T-
AGES R E F E R T O T H E W H O L E S A M P L E . )
TA B L E 8 : T I M E / S P A C E D E S I R E D F O R W E A T H E R
FORECASTS I N M E D I A . Requested Item 07o
More locally tailored forecasts 45
Radio TV Newspaper
More explanation o f trends 19
More 16 24 20 More satellite photographs 16
The Same 77 78 69 A more detailed weather map 14
Less 1 0 0 More information about recent weather 9
No response 6 4 11 More information about weather in N.Z. 5A Random Survey 53
Less than half (4807o) correctly identified the 5. Suggested improvements refer t o l o n g
term " g a l e " , a n d almost a s many (4207o) range forecasts, more local forecasts and
thought t h a t gales w e r e m u c h stronger, information relating t o frost and other
uprooting trees and damaging buildings. Eight extreme conditions.
percent thought of it as no more strong than a 6. Although many say t h a t forecasts a r e
strong wind, while one percent believed it to be usually accurate, almost as many believe
even less. Interestingly, although large numbers forecasts to be accurate only half the time.
were incorrect i n their definitions, few ever Similar proportions were reflected in per-
admitted to being uncertain of the meaning of ceptions o f local accuracy, with some 44
any term. percent believing them to be only partially
Farmers were equally confident o f their accurate, at best, for their local area.
ability t o understand a weather map. H a l f 7 There is a clear preference for one or two
(5207o) said that they always could and 43 day forecasts.
percent that they sometimes could. Very few 8. Most people are satisfied with the extent of
admitted to rarely (2070) or never (107o) being media coverage, but a solid minority would
able to understand. like to see coverage extended, especially on
television. M o r e l o c a l forecasts a n d
This confidence seems to be supported by the explanations o f trends were requested, as
facts, insofar as very high proportions were were the use of satellite photographs and a
able t o describe the weather associated with more detailed weather map. Little needs to
high pressure and frontal conditions. Ninety- be cut, but if anything is, it should be the 3
five percent described high pressure as bringing p.m. temperatures f r o m around N e w
fine weather; some elaborated by referring to Zealand.
the likelihood of frost in winter or hot weather 9. Almost a l l farmers believe t h a t t h e y
in summer, or by mentioning the possibility of understand the terms used in forecasts at
fog or light winds. least most o f the time, but terms such as
"mild" in the summer and "gale" are not
Similarly, frontal conditions were expected well u n d e r s t o o d , w h i l e " s c a t t e r e d
to bring rain or " b a d " weather by 94 per cent. showers" is widely misinterpreted.
Wind and cold were often associated with 10. Over h a l f o f farmers believed that they
fronts, also. Thus farmers have a very good understood the weather map a l l o f the
idea of what to expect from an uncomplicated time; most o f the rest thought that they
weather situation. sometimes could, a t least, a n d simple
situations are understood properly by some
CONCLUSIONS 95 percent.
1. Farmers use weather forecasts primarily to
plan day to day farm activities, but the The results o f this survey confirm those o f
increase of economic returns overall is an previous studies, including o u r o w n o f a
important secondary function, as is the random sample of urban residents in Dunedin
planning for leisure activities at weekends. (Kearsley and Fitzharris, 1984). For example,
2. The main sources o f weather information both farmers and urban people use television
for farmers are TV1 and the commercial and radio, rather than newspapers, f o r their
radio stations. Newspapers a n d t h e weather information. Both groups rank rain as
National Programme play an important the most important weather element, and are
supporting role. generally satisfied with the weather information
3. The likelihood of rain was far and away the they currently receive, although a substantial
most important element o f the weather proportion want more and better local fore-
casts.
forecast, followed by the frost forecast, the
amount o f sunshine and the temperature. Although the daily livelihoods of farmers are
Wind parameters and other elements were far more immediately dependent upon t h e
not important on a regular basis. weather than are those of urban dwellers, it is
4. The majority o f farmers felt that their clear that both groups share a surprising degree
needs were met, although a substantial 35 of misconception. I n our earlier paper i t was
percent thought that this was only partially noted that meanings given to technical terms by
so. meteorologists were not in accord with public54 A Random Survey
perceptions of those meanings. This still holds weather service users. Bulletin American Meteorological
true. F o r example, both farmers and urban Society, 59: 1297-1304.
people do not well understand such terms as Katz, R. W., Murphy, A . M. and Winkler, R. L., 1982:
Assessing the value of frost forecasts to orchardists: a
"mild" and "gale", although many claim to dynamic decision-making approach. Journal of Applied
understand the weather map. Meteorology, 21: 518-531.
Kearsley, G. W. and Fitzharris, B. B., 1984: A random
The complex Otago-Southland terrain and survey o f the public use o f weather forecasts i n
the sparse nature o f off-shore weather data Dunedin. Weather and Climate, 4, 11-22.
make accurate forecasting extremely difficult. Landsberg, H., 1940: Weather forecasting terms. Bulletin
American Meteorological Society, 21: 317-320.
Understandably then, both farmers and urban Love, L. B., 1963: The value of better weather information
people were not wholly happy with the accuracy to the raisin industry. Econometrica, 31: 151-164.
of forecasts, nor with the local applicability of McBoyle, G. R., 1974: Public response to weather termin-
the forecasts offered. ology in the Kitchener-Waterloo area. Climatological
Bulletin, 15: 11-29.
Farmers differ from urban people i n that Maunder, W . J . , 1981: T h e economic climate — a n
they use weather information more for work, editorial. Weather and Climate, I : 2-3.
rather than to plan leisure activities. They also Maunder, W. J., 1984: Climatology. Past, present, future
a personal view. Weather and Climate, 4: 2-10.
place more emphasis on frost and snow, two Moser, C. A . and Kalton, G., 1971: Survey methods in
hazards that can threaten their livelihood. They social investigation, 2nd edition, Heineman, London.
make consistent requests for more local fore- Murphy, A. H. and Brown, B. G., I983a: Forecast termin-
ology: composition and interpretation of public weather
casts and f o r more agriculture-specific data forecasts. Bulletin American Meteorological Society,
throughout the survey. Farmers should use 64: 13-22.
weather forecasts to increase their productivity, Murphy, A. H. and Brown, B. G., 1983b: Interpretation of
and clear majorities not only confirmed that some terms and phrases in public weather forecasts.
they do, but also made it obvious that specific Bulletin A m e r i c a n Meteorological Society, 6 4 :
1283-1289.
improvements t o t h e weather forecasting Oddie, B. C. B., 1964: The language of forecasts. Weather,
system would be of value to them. 19(5): 138-143.
Omar, M . H . , 1980: T h e economic value o f agro-
In our earlier paper i t was remarked that meteorological i n f o r m a t i o n a n d advice, W o r l d
resources w o u l d b e b e t t e r employed i n Meteorological Organisation Technical Note, 164,
providing better service for weather sensitive Geneva, 52 pp.
economic activities in rural areas, which in the Sherrod, J . a n d Neuberger, H . , 1958: Understanding
forecast terms: results o f a survey. Bulletin American
case o f Otago a n d Southland provide a Meteorological Society, 39: 34-36.
significant proportion o f N e w Zealand's Tice, T. F. and Clouser, R. L., 1982: Determination of the
overseas earnings. The results o f this survey value o f weather information to individual corn pro-
ducers. Journal o f Applied Meteorology, 21: 447-452.
confirm that notion, and suggest that such an Vining, K . C . , Pope, C . A . and Dugas, W. A . , 1984:
investment would be far from wasted. Usefulness of weather information to Texas agricultural
producers. Bulletin American Meteorological Society,
ACKNOWLEDGEMENTS 65: 1316-1319.
This survey was made possible with grants
from the New Zealand Meteorological Service
and the University o f Otago Research Fund. APPENDIX — QUESTIONNAIRE
The authors would like to thank Dr T. J. Hearn
P U B L I C USE O F W E AT H E R FORECASTS
of the Resource Development Centre, U n i -
versity o f Otago, f o r h i s h e l p i n d a t a 1. T o w h a t e x t e n t d o y o u t a k e n o t i c e o f weather
processing. forecasts?
Not interested E l
REFERENCES
Take some interest
Use on an informal basis
Canadian Meteorological Service, 1949: University o f Use as part of farming 0
Toronto pool of students on weather terminology, Bul-
letin American Meteorological Society, 30: 61-62. 2. A . W h a t are the main sources o f your weather
Dalton, G. E., 1974: The effect of weather on the choices forecasts? Please rank in order of importance (I
and operations of harvesting machinery in the United —most important etc.)
Kingdon. Weather, 29: 252-260. Radio R a d i o NZ: national programme E
de Freitas, C . R. and Wells, K. M., 1982: Reassessment Radio NZ: commercial programme E
of weather forecast terminology and content. Weather 4)(0: Radio Otago 0
and Climate, 2, 16-22. T.V. 1 E J
Getz, R. R., 1978: A survey of New Jersey's agricultural T.V. 2A Random Survey 5 5
Newspaper 0 8 .
H o w accurately does the forecast relate to your local
Telephone call to Weather Office area?
Other (please specify) LI C o m p l e t e l y
Fairly completely
B. W h y do you prefer your number I choice? Only partially
Fairly rarely E l
Never
9. A r e weather forecasts presented in terms which you
3. A . W h y do you require weather forecasts during the can understand?
week? Please rank in order of importance (1 =
most important, etc.) Yes, always
For general information 0 Yes, mostly
Sometimes
To choose suitable clothing 0
To plan leisure activities 0 No, not very often
No, never
To increase the economic return from farming 0
To plan day to day farm work 0
Other (please specify) E l 10. W h a t do you understand by the term 'fine' in the
forecast?
No rain or fog
B. W h y do you require weather forecasts at the No cloud
weekend? Please rank in order of importance (1 No rain or fog and only a little cloud 0
most important, etc.) No rain, except perhaps drizzle or light
For general information showers
To choose suitable clothing 0 Uncertain
To plan leisure activities 0
To increase the economic return from farming 0 1. W h a t d o y o u understand b y the term 'scattered
Other (please specify) 0 showers' in the forecast?
Showers in only a small part of the area
Showers in most of the area
4. W h a t elements o f the weather forecast are most Showers only part of the time
Showers most of the time
important to your! Please rank in order of importance Light showers only
(1 — most important, etc.) Uncertain
Frost
Likelihood of rain
Amount of sunshine 12. W h a t do you understand by the term 'mild' in winter?
Temperature Warmer than usual for the time of year 0
Wind speed Average for the time of year 0
Wind direction Cooler than usual for the time of year L I
Uncertain 7
Other (please specify) 0E0[10E10
13. W h a t d o y o u understand b y the term ' m i l d ' i n
summer?
5. A r e your main requirements met b y the present Warmer than usual for the time of year
sources and type of forecasts?
Completely met Average for the time of year
Almost completely met Cooler than usual for the time of year
Uncertain
Partially met 0
Hardly met at all
Not met at all 14. W h a t do you understand by the term 'gale'?
Wind that uproots trees and causes damage
What additional sources or types of forecasts or time to buildings LI
of issue would you like to see introduced? Wind that is difficult to walk into, and that
breaks twigs off trees LI
Winds that causes large branches to sway LI
Wind that causes papers to blow about
6. H o w accurate do you think forecasts are? but has little effect on trees
Highly accurate LI Uncertain
Usually accurate
Accurate about half the time LI
7 15. W o u l d you like more or less time or space devoted to
Usually inaccurate weather forecasts?
Completely inaccurate Radio T V P a p e r
More 0 U 0
7. O v e r what time period do you require an accurate The same 0 U 0
forecast? Please rank in order o f importance. (1 — Less L I 0 7
most important, etc.)
Next six hours 0
Next twelve hours 0 16. I f you would like more time o r newspaper space
devoted to weather information, what would you like
Next day E l to see?
Next two days 0
Longer than two days 0 More locally tailored forecast56 A Random Survey
A more detailed weather map LI 23. W h a t age group do you fall into?
Satellite photographs LI 18-25
More explanation of trends LI 26-40
Information about recent local weather LI 41-60
Information about recent weather Over 60
throughout N.Z. LI
Other 0 24. H o w would you describe your farm?
Mainly sheep farm
Mainly dairy farm
17. I f you would like less time or newspaper space devoted Mixed crop and grazing
to the weather, what would you like to cut out? Mainly crop
Orchard
Other (please specify)
18. Whatever you answered to Q.15, are there any ways in
which the weather forecast could be improved?
25. W h a t is the size of your farm in acres?
19. F o r detailed weather information, which would you Less than 10
prefer? 10-50
A 24-hour taped forecast that can be 50-200
telephoned 200-800
The chance to speak to a forecaster >800
Both
26. A r e you a full-time or part-time farmer?
20. A r e you able to understand a weather map? Full-time
Always LI Part-time
Sometimes LI
Rarely LI 27. W h a t was your highest educational level?
Never 0 Left school before 15
Secondary only (no exams)
21. I f you saw a HIGH pressure area over Otago, on a School Certificate
weather map, what weather would you expect t o U.E.
accompany it? University degree or diploma
Other Tertiary qualification
22. I f you were told that there was a FRONT approaching Thank you for your help.
from the South-west, what weather would you expect
to accompany it?You can also read
