An Election Year Like No Other - Ron Elving - Senior Washington Editor and Correspondent, NPR News
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An Election Year
Like No Other
Ron Elving – Senior Washington Editor and Correspondent, NPR News
Wednesday, March 4, 2020 10:30 AM – 11:30 AM
2020
An Election Year Like No Other
FMI / Annual Meat Conference
Nashville March 4, 2020
Ron Elving
NPR / American University
2020 Vision
What just happened?
What will it mean for nomination?
What’s coming in the fall?
What else will happen in 2020?
What will the 2020s bring?
Super Tuesday States 2020
2020 Super Tuesday
14 States / One third of all delegates
ME / VT / MA / VA / NC / TN / AL
AR / OK / TX / MN / CO / UT / CA
Need 15% of state or CD to get delegates
2020 Super Tuesday
Biden won more states:
TX / NC / VA / TN / AL / AR / OK
MN / MA
But Sanders held his own in delegates
CA / CO / UT / VT / MEField Narrows Further
Michael Bloomberg won American Samoa
May well drop out
ElizabethWarren finished 3rd in her home
state of Massachusetts
May remain to seek role in brokered
conventionA Two-Man Race
2020 Vision
March 10
Idaho / Michigan / Mississippi
Missouri / North Dakota / Washington
March 17
Arizona / Florida / Illinois / Ohio2020 Vision
March 24
Georgia
April 7
Wisconsin
April 28
Connecticut / Delaware / Maryland
New York / Pennsylvania / Rhode Island2020 Remaining Primaries
Sanders well positioned in NY, FLA
Sanders also strong in states
that are deep blue or deep red2020 Democratic Convention
Someone will have the most,
but probably less than half.
We thought that would be Sanders, but
with field narrowing dramatically the
upcoming primaries are crucial.2020 Democratic Convention
It is possible that
Milwaukee convention
will be the first since 1952
without a pre-determined winner.2020 Democratic Convention “Brokered” convention could 1. Unite behind leader with plurality 2. Combine leader with one rival 3. Pick a “dark horse” 4. None of the above
What Comes Next? President Trump is renominated without opposition and by acclimation. GOP convention in Charlotte will be four-night informercial and rally.
What Comes Next? President Trump has vulnerabilities despite the general peace and prosperity. 1. Uncertain effects of novel coronavirus 2. Possible economic fallout 3. Stock market overdue for correction 4. Lingering effects of investigations 5. Persistent weakness in polls
Firm Base
2018 Trump Approval
2020
at or above 50%
Electoral in 17 states
College worth 102 Electoral Votes.
Vote Low Ceiling
Approval under 40%
in 16 states (+ DC)
worth 201 Electoral Votes.Trump Approval runs
2020 41-49% in 17 states
Electoral with 235 EC votes.
Vote
So watch 8 swing states
that he won in ‘16:
Florida, North Carolina
Ohio, Iowa, Arizona
Penn, Michigan, WisconsinWhat Comes Next?
• Unprecedented levels of campaign
spending on both sides
• Even greater spending by outside groups
on both sides
• Controversy over debates (or no debates)Third Party or
independent candidates
Will can make a difference.
Others 2016
2000
Run? 1996
1992
With unlimited funds,
could qualify for fall debates.What Comes Next? Incumbent presidents are re-elected, usually easily, barring… 1. An unpopular foreign war 2. A recession or recent recession 3. Major division within incumbent party
Popular Vote and the Electoral College President could lose popular vote by more than the 3 million-vote margin of 2016 but still win Electoral College. This becomes easier as population becomes more concentrated in fewer states.
What Else Happens in 2020? 35 seats of 100 in the U.S. Senate will be on the ballot. 23 are now Republican-held. All but 2 of those in Trump states where he is likely to win again.
What Else Happens in 2020? GOP senators considered vulnerable are Susan Collins of Maine and Cory Gardner of Colorado. Possible other targets: Martha McSally, an appointee in Arizona, and Kelly Loeffler, an appointee in Georgia and Thom Tillis of N.C.
What Else Happens in 2020? The 12 Senate seats on the ballot now held by Democrats include Doug Jones’ seat in Alabama, won in a special election in 2017. (Jeff Sessions wants it back.)
What Else Happens in 2020? In the House, Democrats must defend a narrow margin of majority after the bruising process of impeachment. Many of their 41 first-term members could be at risk, especially if Sanders leads the ticket.
What Else Happens in 2020? In the states, 11 governors will be chosen along with most seats in the 50 state legislatures. They will draw the new maps for members of Congress and legislatures through 2030.
What POLARIZATION
Will IS REAL AND
2020s GROWING
Bring?
Ideology
Demographics
DensityWhat
The Growing Disparity
Will
(and Importance)
2020s
of Party Ideology
Bring?What Younger voters
Will (Gen X, millennials and Gen Z)
2020s are becoming critical
Bring? to election outcomes
sooner in their lives
than earlier
generations of voters.Non-Anglo voters
cast just 11% of U.S. vote
What
for president in 1980.
Will That share increased
2020s 2 points
Bring? per cycle (on average)
to 26.7% in 2016
It could be 30% in 2020
35% in 2028.Declining Anglo share of voting- age citizens, 2013-17
More awareness
What of the growing disparity
Will (and critical importance)
2020s of population density
as an indicator
Bring?
and determiner
of voting behavior.America as Seen on @RealDonaldTrump
Population vs. Landscape: A Deepening Divide?
52% of U.S. pop. lives in
What the 9 most populous
Will states with just 18 senators.
2020s
Bring? 18% of U.S. pop. lives
in the 26
least populous states
and elects 52 senators.
(Most of them GOP.)2020 Vision (Reviewed)
What just happened?
What will it mean for nomination?
What’s coming in the fall?
What else will happen in 2020?
What will the 2020s bring?You can also read
