At doom's doorstep: It is 100 seconds to midnight - 2022 Doomsday Clock Statement - Bulletin of the ...
←
→
Page content transcription
If your browser does not render page correctly, please read the page content below
At doom’s doorstep:
It is 100 seconds to midnight
2022 Doomsday Clock Statement
Science and Security Board
Bulletin of the Atomic Scientists
Editor, John MecklinIt is 100 seconds to midnight
Editor’s note: Founded in 1945 by Albert Einstein and University of Chicago scientists who helped develop the
rst atomic weapons in the Manhattan Project, the Bulletin of the Atomic Scientists created the Doomsday
Clock two years later, using the imagery of apocalypse (midnight) and the contemporary idiom of nuclear
explosion (countdown to zero) to convey threats to humanity and the planet. The Doomsday Clock is set every
year by the Bulletin’s Science and Security Board in consultation with its Board of Sponsors, which includes 11
Nobel laureates. The Clock has become a universally recognized indicator of the world’s vulnerability to
catastrophe from nuclear weapons, climate change, and disruptive technologies in other domains.
To: Leaders and citizens of the world Russia, China, and the United States to
develop hypersonic missiles; and the
Re: At doom’s doorstep: It is 100 seconds
continued testing of anti-satellite weapons by
to midnight
many nations. If not restrained, these e orts
Date: January 20, 2022 could mark the start of a dangerous new
nuclear arms race. Other nuclear concerns,
Last year’s leadership change in the United including North Korea’s unconstrained nuclear
States provided hope that what seemed like a and missile expansion and the (as yet)
global race toward catastrophe might be halted unsuccessful attempts to revive the Iran
and—with renewed US engagement—even nuclear deal contribute to growing dangers.
reversed. Indeed, in 2021 the new American Ukraine remains a potential ashpoint, and
administration changed US policies in some Russian troop deployments to the Ukrainian
ways that made the world safer: agreeing to an border heighten day-to-day tensions.
extension of the New START arms control
agreement and beginning strategic stability For many countries, a huge gap still exists
talks with Russia; announcing that the United between long-term greenhouse gas-reduction
States would seek to return to the Iran nuclear pledges and the near- and medium-term
deal; and rejoining the Paris climate accord. emission-reduction actions needed to achieve
Perhaps even more heartening was the return those goals. Although the new US
of science and evidence to US policy making administration’s quick return to the Paris
in general, especially regarding the COVID-19 Agreement speaks the right words, it has yet to
pandemic. A more moderate and predictable be matched with actionable policies.
approach to leadership and the control of one
of the two largest nuclear arsenals of the world Developed countries improved their responses
marked a welcome change from the previous to the continuing COVID-19 pandemic in 2021,
four years. but the worldwide response remained entirely
insu cient. Plans for quick global distribution
Still, the change in US leadership alone was of vaccines essentially collapsed, leaving
not enough to reverse negative international poorer countries largely unvaccinated and
security trends that had been long in allowing new variants of the SARS-CoV-2
developing and continued across the threat virus to gain an unwelcome foothold. Beyond
horizon in 2021. the pandemic, worrying biosafety and
biosecurity lapses made it clear that the
US relations with Russia and China remain international community needs to focus
tense, with all three countries engaged in an serious attention on management of the global
array of nuclear modernization and expansion biological research enterprise. Further, the
e orts—including China’s apparent large-scale establishment and pursuit of biological
program to increase its deployment of silo-
based long-range nuclear missiles; the push by
Bulletin of the Atomic Scientists 2
fi
ff
ffi
fl
ffweapons programs marked the beginning of a within a stone’s throw of apocalypse. Global
new biological arms race. leaders and the public are not moving with
anywhere near the speed or unity needed to
And while the new US administration made prevent disaster.
progress in reestablishing the role of science
and evidence in public policy, corruption of Leaders around the world must immediately
the information ecosystem continued apace in commit themselves to renewed cooperation in
2021. One particularly concerning variety of the many ways and venues available for
internet-based disinformation infected reducing existential risk. Citizens of the world
America last year: Waves of internet-enabled can and should organize to demand that their
lies persuaded a signi cant portion of the US leaders do so—and quickly. The doorstep of
public to believe the utterly false narrative doom is no place to loiter.
contending that Joe Biden did not win the US
presidential election in 2020. Continued e orts The nuclear tightrope
to foster this narrative threaten to undermine
future US elections, American democracy in During 2021, some nuclear risks declined while
general, and, therefore, the United States’ others rose. Upcoming decisions on nuclear
ability to lead global e orts to manage policies could generate either salutary or
existential risk. dangerous modi cations of an already
uncertain and
In view of this mixed worrisome security
threat environment— situation.
with some positive
developments
The world remains stuck The February 2021
counteracted by
worrisome and
in an extremely agreement between the
United States and
accelerating negative
trends—the members dangerous moment. Russia to renew New
START for ve years is
of the Science and a decidedly positive
Security Board nd the development. This
world to be no safer extension creates a
than it was last year at this time and therefore window of opportunity to negotiate a future
decide to set the Doomsday Clock once again arms control agreement between the two
at 100 seconds to midnight. This decision does countries that possess 90 percent of the
not, by any means, suggest that the nuclear weapons on the planet. The United
international security situation has stabilized. States and Russia also agreed to start two sets
On the contrary, the Clock remains the closest of dialogues about how to best maintain
it has ever been to civilization-ending “nuclear stability” in the future: the Working
apocalypse because the world remains stuck in Group on Principles and Objectives for Future
an extremely dangerous moment. In 2019 we Arms Control and the Working Group on
called it the new abnormal, and it has Capabilities and Actions with Strategic E ects.
unfortunately persisted. These groups have met and in early 2022 are
expected to report on initial results of the
Last year, despite laudable e orts by some consultations, aimed at shaping future arms
leaders and the public, negative trends in control agreements.
nuclear and biological weapons, climate
change, and a variety of disruptive Another bright spot was the Biden
technologies—all exacerbated by a corrupted administration's announcements that it would
information ecosphere that undermines seek to return to the Joint Comprehensive Plan
rational decision making—kept the world of Action (JCPOA) with Iran and o er to enter
strategic stability talks with China. Although
Bulletin of the Atomic Scientists 3
fi
fi
fi
fi
ff
ff
ff
ff
ffno talks between North Korea and the United including cruise, ballistic, and glide vehicles,
States took place in 2021, the North Koreans and there is evidence of their restarting
have not resumed testing of nuclear weapons plutonium production. Meanwhile, there have
or long-range intercontinental ballistic been no high-level negotiations between the
missiles (ICBMs). (Tests of shorter-range United States and North Korea. India and
missiles have continued.) Finally, when the Pakistan continue to advance their nuclear,
Biden administration began its Nuclear missile, and other military capabilities with no
Posture Review (NPR) process, it announced diminution of possible ash points that could
that one speci c goal would be to “reduce the lead to nuclear con ict.
role of nuclear weapons”
in US national security As the January 6, 2021
policy. insurrection at the US
Other developments,
As the January 6, Capitol demonstrated, no
country is immune from
however, appeared on the
negative side of the ledger: 2021 insurrection threats to its democracy,
and in a state with nuclear-
Iran continues to build an demonstrated, weapons-usable material
and nuclear weapons, both
no country is
enriched uranium can be targets for
stockpile, insisting that all terrorists and fanatics.
sanctions be removed
immune from
Notably, the
before returning to talks insurrectionists came
with the United States on close to capturing Vice
the JCPOA. The window
of opportunity seems to be
threats to its President Mike Pence and
the “nuclear football” that
closing. Over time, Iran's
neighbors, particularly
democracy. accompanies the vice
president as the backup
Saudi Arabia, may feel system for nuclear launch
compelled to acquire commands. More than 10
similar capabilities, percent of those charged with crimes during
foreshadowing the frightening possibility of a the January 6th insurrection were veterans or
Middle East with multiple countries with the active service members. The Pentagon has
expertise and material to build nuclear conducted a major review of extremism in the
weapons. military and has adopted new de nitions of
extremist activities in an attempt to reduce
The Chinese have started to build new ICBM this danger in the future. The seriousness of
silos on a large scale, leading to concerns that the problem is clear.
China may be considering a change in its
nuclear doctrine. China and Russia have both Finally, the United States is preparing a
tested anti-satellite weapons recently, Nuclear Posture Review to guide US strategy,
increasing concerns about rapid escalation in policy, and deployments of nuclear weapons,
any conventional con ict with the United but its overall message appears not yet
States. E orts by all three countries to eld decided. We hope the document will assert
hypersonic missiles are beginning to yield that the United States will reduce the role of
results, intensifying competition. While nuclear weapons in its deterrence and defense
experts disagree on both the causes and the policies, which in turn may positively a ect
consequences of these programs, they clearly the nuclear weapons postures of other
mark the start of a new arms competition. countries, leading, we believe, to a safer world.
Where we set the Clock next year will be
The North Koreans continue to test nuclear- in uenced by what the Nuclear Posture
capable short- and medium-range missiles,
Bulletin of the Atomic Scientists 4
fl
ff
fi
fl
fl
fl
fi
fi
ffReview ultimately contains. Reports of carbon dioxide emissions for the long term—
congressional interference in the process, meaning by 2050 or thereabouts. These
resulting in the ring of personnel conducting announcements are signi cant, in that
the review, suggests unwelcome politicization reaching zero aggregate carbon dioxide
that could well a ect the outcome and make emissions globally would halt the buildup of
more rational nuclear weapons policies hard greenhouse gas pollution in the atmosphere,
to e ect. which is absolutely critical to halting yet more
warming. Earnest e orts to reach these
Climate change: Lots of words, seemingly distant targets require concerted
relatively little action actions in the immediate term, including a
redirection of investment away from the
This past year’s climate negotiations in production and use of fossil fuel and toward
Glasgow marked an important milestone in renewables and energy e ciency, massive
climate multilateralism: a critical rst round of upgrading of existing infrastructure, and a
the treaty’s cycle of upgrading national e orts. shift in land use and agriculture practices. The
Countries were under pressure to strengthen real test of the signi cance of these net-zero
their emission-reduction pledges signi cantly pledges will be whether they are matched by
relative to their pledges six years ago in Paris. near- and medium-term emission-reduction
The results, unfortunately, actions.
were insu cient. China
and India a rmed that Last year, we noted
they would move away optimistically the election
from use of coal, but only
gradually; they a rmed for
Efforts to reach of a US president who
“acknowledges climate
the rst time the objective
of achieving “net zero,” but
seemingly distant change as a profound
threat and supports
only in 2060 and 2070,
respectively. There was
climate targets international cooperation
and science-based policy,”
only partial progress
toward de ned accounting
require concerted and we’ve seen a dramatic
change in tone from the
actions in the
rules to allow international previous presidential
markets for greenhouse gas administration.
Recognizing that “[t]he
emissions and removals to
develop. Developed immediate term. e ects we are seeing of
countries again failed to climate change are the
follow through on treaty crisis of our generation,”
commitments to provide Biden has indeed
necessary nancial and technological support. attempted to move forward quickly, reentering
Overall, countries’ projections and plans for the United States in the Paris Agreement and
fossil fuel production are far from adequate to announcing the United States’ updated Paris
achieve the global Paris goals to limit the emission pledge of a 50 percent reduction by
warming of the surface of the planet to “well 2030. He has also signaled an attentiveness to
below two degrees Celsius” (3.6 degrees the connection between climate action and
Fahrenheit) relative to the temperature around environmental justice, in both the domestic
1800, at the beginning of the industrial and international contexts. He has committed
revolution. to making climate investments in
disadvantaged communities within the United
Encouragingly, several countries (as well as States, and at the UN General Assembly
nancial institutions and corporations) have meeting he pledged to double climate
announced a commitment to achieve net-zero nancing to developing countries.
Bulletin of the Atomic Scientists 5
fi
fi
ff
ff
fi
ffi
fi
fi
ffi
fi
ffi
ff
ff
fi
ffi
fi
fi
fi
ffHowever, progress achievable through the US in Canada, and the EACOP pipeline in Uganda
political process is highly constrained and and Tanzania). These actions focus public
fragile, as any subsequent president may try to attention on climate change and raise its
swing the pendulum backward. The major political salience, but whether they will
infrastructure package passed in 2021 is less of transform policies, investments, and behaviors
a “climate bill” than the Biden administration remains among the most important questions
initially proposed, and the fate of the climate facing global society.
goals of the “Build Back Better” bill hangs in
the balance of a starkly divided Congress. It The burgeoning biological threat to
thus is not yet clear how much progress the civilization
United States will make in the coming year
toward its announced emissions reduction For years, the United States and many other
pledge and nance promise. countries underinvested in defense against
natural, accidental, and intentional biological
For over four decades the threat of climate threats. They also underestimated the impacts
change to “future generations” has been that a biological threat could have on the
ruefully noted. As warming has continued to entire world. COVID-19
drive up temperatures— revealed vulnerabilities in
from an unprecedented every country and the
extreme high temperature world’s collective ability
of 100 degrees Fahrenheit
in the Siberian Arctic to
What the world has to prepare for, respond to,
and recover from
the record-breaking 2021
“heat dome” over western experienced during infectious disease
outbreaks.
Canada and the United
States—today’s young this pandemic is The COVID-19 pandemic
people are increasingly
seeing themselves as the nowhere close to a rightly has absorbed the
world’s attention, given its
worst-case
future victims. They are demonstrated ability to
witnessing human and sicken and kill millions,
ecosystem tragedies
scenario.
weaken national
caused, for example, by economies and global
droughts in eastern Africa supply chains, and
and the United States, destabilize governments
oods in China and and societies. And yet,
Europe, and wild res raging around the world, what the world has experienced during this
harbingers of yet more dire consequences as pandemic is nowhere close to a worst-case
climate change accelerates in their lifetimes. scenario.
The experience of a deepening crisis has To deal with the crisis at hand, the world is
animated protests and other civil society focusing almost all its e orts on COVID-19, to
expressions of alarm this year. These have the exclusion of other biological threats. The
occurred at major political events (such as the scope of potential biological threats is
G7 Summit), by youth climate movements expansive. Preventing and mitigating future
(such as the student-led Fridays for Future biological events will require a wider lens for
protests around the world), at September’s viewing biological threats. For example, slow
Climate Week in New York, at COP26 in vaccination rates have allowed virus
Glasgow, and at individual sites of proposed mutations, perpetuating the threat from
new fossil fuel infrastructure (such as Line 3 in COVID-19. Similarly, failing to address
the United States, the Trans Mountain Pipeline antibiotic resistance could trigger a worldwide
Bulletin of the Atomic Scientists 6
fl
fi
fi
ffpandemic involving antimicrobial-resistant States and Sweden discovered in 2012, is cheap
organisms within a decade. Research into and ubiquitous today, spurring investments in
novel diseases has proliferated high- genetic testing and adult stem cell
containment laboratories around the world. technologies. Countries and non-state actors
Some of those labs inadvertently release are exploring ways to create super-soldiers,
pathogens into the environment. Some personalize medicine, increase human
regimes to monitor and regulate these performance, improve human gene therapy,
laboratories are perceived by their researchers and synthesize biology. Innovations such as
to be excessively burdensome and restrictive. synthetic biology have created new areas of
At the same time, the Biological Weapons and discovery, outpacing current public health,
Toxin Convention still struggles to nd safety, and security measures.
e ective ways to enforce its prohibitions on
the development and production of biological The world is failing to recognize the
agents and weapons. multifaceted nature of the biological threat.
Advances in biological science and technology
This year, the US Department of State can harm us as well as help us. Leaders must
declared that Russia and North Korea possess recognize that COVID-19 is not the last
active biological weapons programs and biological threat we will have to face in our
expressed concern about dual-use biological lifetimes—or, perhaps, even this year.
research programs in China and Iran. Terrorist
organizations such as Al Qaeda and ISIS and Disruptive technology in the age of
some criminal organizations continue to disinformation
profess their determination to build, acquire,
and use biological weapons to achieve their The new US administration has done much to
goals. The globally inadequate response to reestablish the role of scientists in informing
COVID-19 only serves to underscore that an public policy, and even more to minimize
attack using a weapon containing biological deliberate confusion and chaos emanating
agents designed to resist existing medical from the White House. Thoughtful
countermeasures could provide attackers with deliberation—merely a promise in January 2021
some of the tactical, operational, strategic, and —appears to be realized more often today. On
economic advantages they seek. The US the other hand, disinformation fomented
Department of Defense is now concerned outside the executive branch—including from
enough about that prospect to undertake a some members of Congress and many state
biological posture review. leaders—appears to have taken root in
alarming and dangerous ways.
The world now lives in an age of biological
innovation. Many countries and corporations Large fractions of Congress and the public
are making enormous investments in continue to deny that Joe Biden legitimately
biological science, biotechnology, and won the presidential election, and their views
combinational science and technology (in on these matters appear to be hardening rather
which biology combines with other elds), than moderating. Similar trends regarding
recognizing that they have immense COVID-related disinformation are apparent
opportunities to establish and grow bio- around the world, crippling the ability of
economies. Innovative biological research and public health authorities and medical science
development e orts simultaneously increase to achieve higher vaccination rates. Mask-
and decrease biological risk. The eld is wearing and social distancing are similarly
moving quickly. discouraged by disinformation. While we
know more now about the role of social media
CRISPR-Cas9, the revolutionary genetic campaigns in taking advantage of
engineering tool that scientists in the United vulnerabilities in human psychology and
Bulletin of the Atomic Scientists 7
ff
ff
fi
fi
ficognition to spread disinformation and It also appears that Chinese use of surveillance
societal disunity, the behavior of social media technology has reached new heights in
companies has changed hardly at all. Political Xinjiang in the last year. Arti cial intelligence
attacks on institutions that provide societal and facial recognition systems intended to
continuity and store hard-won knowledge reveal states of emotion have been tested on
about how best to deal with problems continue Uyghurs in Xinjiang. In the last year, it has also
apace. come to light that China is seeking to develop
standards for using facial recognition that can
In cyber con ict, cyberattackers have grown be optimized for distinguishing individuals by
more audacious. The SolarWinds hack, an ethnic group. The potential widespread
attack on Microsoft Exchange that a ected deployment of these technologies presents a
millions around the distinct threat to human
world, and a rights around the world
ransomware attack on and, therefore,
Colonial Pipeline
(resolved only with the The potential civilization as we know
and practice it.
payment of $4.4 million
to get the system up widespread deployment Finally, tensions over
and running again) all
demonstrate the far- of these technologies military space activity
have increased in the
reaching rami cations past few years. For
of cyber-vulnerabilities. presents a distinct example, Russia
conducted an anti-
The good news in cyber
includes a Biden
threat to human rights satellite missile test in
November, destroying
executive order and
other federal
around the world and, one of its own satellites
and creating a debris
government initiatives
on cybersecurity that
therefore, civilization as cloud that orbited
dangerously close to
seem to have signi cant
force and momentum
we know and practice it. the International Space
Station. Russia has also
behind them and have “injected an object into
gone farther than orbit” that subsequently
previous orders and approached another
initiatives. The expert cybersecurity team the Russian satellite already in orbit in a manner
new administration has assembled has the ear consistent with its use as an anti-satellite
of the president. In addition, against all odds, weapon. A similar activity has been used to
both the UN Open-Ended Working Group and follow a US government satellite. Press reports
the Group of Government Experts have have suggested that US Space Command is on
reached some rough consensus on cyber the verge of disclosing a new anti-satellite
norms of behavior. (The rst group involves weapon. On the other hand, US o cials from
representatives from most of the world’s the State and Defense departments were
nations; the latter includes the biggest players reported to be drafting language for a binding
in cyber.) It remains to be seen whether these UN resolution regarding responsible behavior
norms actually a ect the behavior of national in space. If approved, such language could
actors in cyberspace, but it is better to have reduce the likelihood of space incidents taking
these norms in place (or in the process of place.
being formed and agreed to) than not to have
them at all.
Bulletin of the Atomic Scientists 8
fl
fi
ff
fi
fi
fi
ffi
ffPractical steps to move the world stability and then declare such a policy in
away from catastrophe and toward a concert with Russia (and China).
safer world • President Biden should eliminate the US
president’s sole authority to launch
Last year, we looked forward to the end of the nuclear weapons and work to persuade
COVID-19 pandemic—but that end is not yet other countries with nuclear weapons to
in sight. Leaders in the wealthiest and most put in place similar barriers.
advanced countries have not acted with the
speed and focus necessary to manage dire • Russia should rejoin the NATO-Russia
threats to humanity’s future. Council and collaborate on risk-reduction
and escalation-avoidance measures.
Our decision to keep the Doomsday Clock at
100 seconds to midnight is a clear warning to • North Korea should codify its moratorium
the world: We need to back away from the on nuclear tests and long-range missile
doorstep of doom. Immediate, practical steps tests and help other countries verify a
to protect humanity from the major global moratorium on enriched uranium and
threats that we have outlined are needed: plutonium production.
• The Russian and US presidents should • Iran and the United States should jointly
identify more ambitious and return to full compliance with the Joint
comprehensive limits on nuclear weapons Comprehensive Plan of Action and
and delivery systems by the end of 2022. initiate new, broader talks on Middle East
They should both agree to reduce reliance security and missile constraints.
on nuclear weapons by limiting their
roles, missions, and platforms, and • Private and public investors should
decrease budgets accordingly. redirect funds away from fossil fuel
projects to climate-friendly investments.
• The United States and other countries
should accelerate their decarbonization, • The world’s wealthier countries should
matching policies to commitments. China provide more nancial support and
should set an example by pursuing technology cooperation to developing
sustainable development pathways—not countries to undertake strong climate
fossil fuel-intensive projects—in the Belt action. COVID-recovery investments
and Road Initiative. should favor climate mitigation and
adaptation objectives across all economic
• US and other leaders should work sectors and address the full range of
through the World Health Organization potential greenhouse gas emission
and other international institutions to reductions, including capital investments
reduce biological risks of all kinds in urban development, agriculture,
through better monitoring of animal- transport, heavy industry, buildings and
human interactions, improvements in appliances, and electric power.
international disease surveillance and
reporting, increased production and • National leaders and international
distribution of medical supplies, and organizations should devise more
expanded hospital capacity. e ective regimes for monitoring
biological research and development
• The United States should persuade allies e orts.
and rivals that no- rst-use of nuclear
weapons is a step toward security and • Governments, technology rms, academic
experts, and media organizations should
Bulletin of the Atomic Scientists 9
ff
ff
fi
fi
ficooperate to identify and implement
practical and ethical ways to combat
internet-enabled misinformation and
disinformation.
• At every reasonable opportunity, citizens
of all countries should hold their local,
regional, and national political o cials
and business and religious leaders
accountable by asking “What are you
doing to address climate change?”
Without swift and focused action, truly
catastrophic events—events that could end
civilization as we know it—are more likely.
When the Clock stands at 100 seconds to
midnight, we are all threatened. The moment
is both perilous and unsustainable, and the
time to act is now.
Bulletin of the Atomic Scientists 10
ffiScience and Security Board Biographies
Rachel Bronson is the President and CEO of Lynn Eden Eden is Senior Research Scholar
the Bulletin of the Atomic Scientists, where (Emeritus) at Stanford University’s Center for
she oversees the publishing programs, the International Security and Cooperation. Eden is
management of the Doomsday Clock, and activities also co-chair of US Pugwash and a member of the
around nuclear risk, climate change, International Pugwash Council. Her scholarly work
and disruptive technologies. Before joining the focuses on the military and society; science,
Bulletin, she served as vice president for Studies at technology, and organizations; and US nuclear
The Chicago Council on Global A airs, adjunct weapons history and policy. Eden’s Whole World
professor of “Global Energy” at the Kellogg School on Fire: Organizations, Knowledge, and Nuclear
of Management, and senior fellow and director of Weapons Devastation won the American
Middle East studies at the Council on Foreign Sociological Association’s 2004 Robert K. Merton
Relations, among other positions. Her book, award for best book in science and technology
Thicker than Oil: America’s Uneasy Partnership studies. Her current research and writing asks how
with Saudi Arabia (Oxford University Press, 2006), a speci c US military planning organization has
has been translated into Japanese and published in enabled very good people to plan what, if put into
paperback. Her writings and commentary have action, could or would result in the deaths of tens
appeared in outlets including Foreign A airs, or hundreds of millions of people. In other words,
Foreign Policy, The New York Times, The how do US military o cers make plans to ght and
Washington Post, “PBS NewsHour,” and “The Daily prevail in nuclear war? The answer lies not in
Show.” Bronson has served as a consultant to NBC individual psychology but in common
News and testi ed before the congressional Task organizational processes such as abstraction,
Force on Anti-Terrorism and Proliferation categorization, and fragmented responsibilities.
Financing, Congress’s Joint Economic Committee,
and the 9/11 Commission. Rod Ewing is the Frank Stanton Professor in
Nuclear Security in the Center for International
Edmund G Brown Jr. (Executive Chair) Security and Cooperation in the Freeman Spogli
completed his fourth term as Governor of the State Institute for International Studies and a Professor
of California in 2019. He began his career in public in the Department of Geological Sciences in
service in 1969 as a trustee for the LA Community the School of Earth, Energy and Environmental
College District and became California Secretary Sciences at Stanford University. Ewing’s research
of State in 1970 and Governor of California in 1974 focuses on the back end of the nuclear fuel cycle,
and 1978. After his governorship, Brown lectured mainly nuclear materials and the geochemistry of
and traveled widely, practiced law, served as radionuclides. He is the past president of the
chairman of the state Democratic Party, and ran for International Union of Materials Research
president. Brown was elected Mayor of Oakland in Societies. Ewing has written extensively on issues
1998 and California Attorney General in 2006; he related to nuclear waste management and is co-
was elected to a third gubernatorial term in 2010 editor of Radioactive Waste Forms for the
and a fourth term in 2014. During this time, Brown Future and Uncertainty Underground: Yucca
helped eliminate the state's multi-billion Mountain and the Nation’s High-Level Nuclear
budget de cit, spearheaded successful campaigns Waste. He received the Lomonosov Medal of the
to provide new funding for California's schools, Russian Academy of Sciences in 2006.
and established a robust Rainy Day Fund to
prepare for the next economic downturn. His Steve Fetter is associate provost, dean of the
administration established nation-leading targets graduate school, and professor of public policy at
to protect the environment and ght climate the University of Maryland. He served for ve
change. Brown attended the University of years in the White House O ce of Science and
California, Berkeley, and earned a JD at Yale Law Technology Policy during the Obama
School. Administration, where he led the environment and
energy and the national security and international
Bulletin of the Atomic Scientists 11
fi
fi
fi
ffi
ffi
fi
ff
ff
fi
fiBiographies (cont.)
a airs divisions. He is a fellow of the American general relativity in the context of astrophysics and
Physical Society and a member of the Union of cosmology. He is a member of the Laser
Concerned Scientists board of directors and the Interferometer Gravitational-Wave Observatory
National Academy of Sciences Committee on (LIGO) collaboration, and was part of the team
International Security and Arms Control. He has that announced the rst detection of gravitational
worked on nuclear policy issues in the Pentagon waves in early 2016 and the rst multi-messenger
and the State Department and has been a visiting detection of a binary neutron star in 2017. He
fellow at Stanford, Harvard, MIT, and Lawrence received a 2012 National Science Foundation
Livermore National Laboratory. He also served as CAREER Award, the 2015 Quantrell Award for
associate director of the Joint Global Change Excellence in Undergraduate Teaching, and the
Research Institute and vice chairman of the Breakthrough Prize in Fundamental Physics in
Federation of American Scientists. He is a 2016. Holz was selected as a Kavli Fellow of the
recipient of the American Physical Society's Joseph National Academy of Sciences and is a Fellow of
A. Burton Forum and Leo Szilard Lectureship the American Physical Society. He received his
awards, the Federation of American Scientists' PhD in physics from the University of Chicago and
Hans Bethe 'Science in the Public Service' award, his AB in physics from Princeton University. As co-
and the Secretary of Defense Medal for chair of the Science and Security Board, Holz is a
Outstanding Public Service. member of the Governing Board, ex o cio.
Asha M. George is the executive director of the Sivan Kartha is a senior scientist at the Stockholm
Bipartisan Commission on Biodefense. She is a Environmental Institute whose research and
public health security professional whose research publications for the past 25 years have focused on
and programmatic emphasis has been practical, technological options and policy strategies for
academic, and political. George served in the US addressing climate change, concentrating most
House of Representatives as a senior professional recently on equity and e ciency in the design of
sta er and subcommittee sta director at the an international climate regime. He is a co-leader
House Committee on Homeland Security in the of SEI’s Gender and Social Equity Programme, and
110th and 111th Congress. She has worked for a co-director of the Climate Equity Reference
variety of organizations, including government Project. His current work deals primarily with the
contractors, foundations, and non-pro ts. As a economic, political, and ethical dimensions of
contractor, she supported and worked with all equitably sharing the e ort of an ambitious global
federal Departments, especially the Department of response to climate change. Dr. Kartha has also
Homeland Security and the Department of Health worked on mitigation scenarios, market
and Human Services. George also served on active mechanisms for climate actions, and the
duty in the US Army as a military intelligence environmental and socioeconomic impacts of
o cer and as a paratrooper. She is a decorated biomass energy. His work has enabled him to
Desert Storm Veteran. She holds a Bachelor of Arts advise and collaborate with diverse organizations,
in Natural Sciences from Johns Hopkins University, including the UN Climate Convention Secretariat,
a Master of Science in Public Health from the various United Nations and World Bank programs,
University of North Carolina at Chapel Hill, and a numerous government policy-making bodies and
Doctorate in Public Health from the University of agencies, foundations, and civil society
Hawaii at Manoa. She is also a graduate of the organizations throughout the developing and
Harvard University National Preparedness industrialized world. He served as a coordinating
Leadership Initiative. lead author in the preparation of the Fifth
Assessment Report of the Intergovernmental Panel
Daniel Holz (Co-Chair) is a professor at the on Climate Change, released in 2014, co-leading the
University of Chicago in the Departments of chapter on Equity and Sustainable Development,
Physics, Astronomy & Astrophysics, the Enrico and has been selected as a lead author for the
Fermi Institute, and the Kavli Institute for upcoming IPCC Sixth Assessment Report, to be
Cosmological Physics. His research focuses on released in 2021.
Bulletin of the Atomic Scientists 12
ff
ffi
ff
fi
ff
ffi
fi
ff
ffi
fiBiographies (cont.)
Robert Lati retired from the US Air Force as a appointed by Illinois Governor JB Pritzker as
major general in 2006. He is an adjunct professor Operations Lead for the State of Illinois’ Alternate
at the University of Notre Dame and a research Care Facilities, a network of alternate medical
professor at George Mason University’s School of locations designed to decompress the hospital
Engineering. He is also a member of the system during the COVID-19 pandemic. Dr.
Intelligence Community Studies Board and the McKinney holds her Doctorate degree from the
Committee on International Security and Arms University of Illinois at Chicago School of Public
Control of the National Academies of Sciences, Health and received her Bachelor of Arts in
Engineering, and Medicine. Lati ’s new book, Biology from Brandeis University. She received her
Future Peace: Technology, Aggression, and the Rush Master of Public Health degree and certi cates in
to War, looks at the role technology plays in Managed Care and Health Care Administration
leading us into con ict. He is also the author of from Benedictine University in Lisle, IL.
Future War: Preparing for the New Global
Battle eld. Steve Miller is Director of the International
Security Program at the Belfer Center for Science
Herb Lin is a senior research scholar for cyber and International A airs in Harvard University’s
policy and security at the Center for International Kennedy School of Government. He is a Fellow of
Security and Cooperation, and Hank J. Holland the American Academy of Arts and Sciences,
Fellow in Cyber Policy and Security at the Hoover where he is a member of the Committee on
Institution, both at Stanford University. His International Security Studies (CISS). Miller is also
research interests relate broadly to the policy and Co-Chair of the US Pugwash Committee, and is a
national security dimensions of cybersecurity and member of the Council of International Pugwash.
cyberspace, with focus on o ensive operations in Miller co-directed the Academy’s project on the
cyberspace and information warfare and in uence Global Nuclear Future Initiative with the Bulletin’s
operations. Lin holds additional a liations with former Science and Security Board chair, Robert
the National Academies, Columbia’s Saltzman Rosner.
Institute, and the Aspen Cybersecurity Group. In
2019, he was elected a fellow of the American Raymond Pierrehumbert is Halley Professor of
Association for the Advancement of Science. In Physics at the University of Oxford. He was a lead
2016, he served on President Obama’s Commission author on the IPCC Third Assessment Report, and
on Enhancing National Cybersecurity. He has a co-author of the National Research Council
previously served as a professional sta member report on abrupt climate change. He was awarded a
and sta scientist for the House Armed Services John Simon Guggenheim Fellowship in 1996, which
Committee (1986-1990), where his portfolio was used to launch collaborative work on the
included defense policy and arms control issues. climate of Early Mars with collaborators in Paris.
He is a Fellow of the American Geophysical Union
Suzet McKinney is the Principal and Director of (AGU), a Fellow of the American Academy of Arts
Life Sciences for Sterling Bay where she oversees and Sciences, and has been named Chevalier de
relationships with the scienti c, academic, l'Ordre des Palmes Académiques by the Republic
corporate, tech, and governmental sectors involved of France. Pierrehumbert’s central research
in the life sciences ecosystem. She also leads the interest is the use of fundamental physical
strategy to expand Sterling Bay’s footprint in life principles to elucidate the behavior of the present
sciences nationwide. She previously served as CEO and past climates of Earth and other planets,
and Executive Director of the Illinois Medical including the growing catalog of exoplanets. He
District, where she managed a 24/7/365 leads the European Research Council Advance
environment that included 560 acres of medical Grant project EXOCONDENSE.
research facilities, labs, a biotech business
incubator, universities, raw land development Robert Rosner is the William E. Wrather
areas, four hospitals and more than 40 healthcare Distinguished Service Professor in the
related facilities. In 2020, Dr. McKinney was Departments of Astronomy & Astrophysics
Bulletin of the Atomic Scientists 13
fi
ff
ff
fl
ff
ff
fi
ff
ffi
ff
fi
flBiographies (cont.)
and Physics, and the Harris School of Public Policy Science. His awards include the 2009 Frank Kreith
at the University of Chicago. Rosner served as Energy Award from the American Society of
Director of Argonne National Laboratory, where he Mechanical Engineers and the 2005 Axelson
had also served as Chief Scientist. His current Johnson Commemorative Lecture award from the
scienti c research is mostly in the areas of Royal Academy of Engineering Sciences of Sweden
laboratory and astrophysical uid dynamics and (IVA). In 2003 he received the Leo Szilard
magnetohydrodynamics, and computational Lectureship Award from the American Physical
physics. His policy-oriented work has focused on Society.
the future of nuclear power and the back end of the
nuclear fuel cycle, as well as various aspects of Susan Solomon is the Lee and Geraldine Martin
electrifying the transport sector. He is a fellow of Professor of Environmental Studies at the
the American Physical Society, and an elected Massachusetts Institute of Technology and was the
member of the American Academy of Arts & Founding Director of the MIT Environmental
Sciences and the Norwegian Academy of Science Solutions Initiative from 2014-2015. She is well
and Letters. Rosner was chair of the Science and known for pioneering work that explained why
Security Board from 2013-2021. there is a hole in the Antarctic ozone layer and is
the author of several in uential scienti c papers in
Scott Sagan is the Caroline S.G. Munro Professor climate science. Solomon received the Crafoord
of Political Science, the Mimi and Peter Haas Prize from the Swedish Academy of Sciences in
University Fellow in Undergraduate Education, 2018, the 1999 US National Medal of Science, the
Co-Director and Senior Fellow at the Center for nation’s highest scienti c award, in 1999, and has
International Security and Cooperation, and Senior also received the Grande Medaille of the French
Fellow at the Freeman Spogli Institute at Stanford Academy of Sciences, the Blue Planet Prize in
University. He also serves as Chairman of the Japan, the BBVA Frontiers of Knowledge Award,
American Academy of Arts and Sciences’ and the Volvo Environment Prize. She is a member
Committee on International Security Studies. of the US National Academy of Sciences, the
Before joining the Stanford faculty, Sagan was a French Academy of Sciences, and the Royal Society
lecturer in the Department of Government at in the UK. She served as co-chair for the
Harvard University and served as special assistant Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change
to the director of the Organization of the Joint (IPCC) fourth climate science assessment report,
Chiefs of Sta in the Pentagon. Sagan has also released in 2007. Time magazine named Solomon
served as a consultant to the o ce of the Secretary as one of the 100 most in uential people in the
of Defense and at the Sandia National Laboratory world in 2008.
and the Los Alamos National Laboratory.
Sharon Squassoni (Co-Chair) is a research
Robert Socolow is professor emeritus in the professor at the Institute for International Science
Department of Mechanical and Aerospace and Technology Policy, Elliott School of
Engineering at Princeton University. From 2000 to International A airs, at the George Washington
2019, he and Steve Pacala were the co-principal University. She has specialized in nuclear
investigators of Princeton's Carbon Mitigation nonproliferation, arms control and security policy
Initiative, a twenty- ve-year (2001-2025) project for three decades, serving in the US government at
supported by BP. His best-known paper, with the Arms Control and Disarmament Agency, the
Pacala, was in Science (2004): "Stabilization State Department, and the Congressional Research
Wedges: Solving the Climate Problem for the Next Service. Since 2007, she has directed research
50 Years with Current Technologies." Socolow is a programs at the Center for Strategic and
member of the American Academy of Arts and International Studies and the Carnegie Endowment
Sciences, an associate of the National Research for International Peace. A political scientist by
Council of the National Academies, a fellow of the training, she holds degrees from the State
American Physical Society, and a fellow of the University of New York at Albany, the University
American Association for the Advancement of of Maryland, and the National War College. As co-
Bulletin of the Atomic Scientists 14
fi
ff
ff
fi
fi
fl
fl
fl
ffi
fiBiographies (cont.)
chair of the Science and Security Board, Squassoni
is a member of the Governing Board, ex o cio.
Jon Wolfsthal is is Director of the Nuclear Crisis
Group, an independent project of Global Zero.
Wolfsthal served previously as Special Assistant to
the President of the United States for National
Security A airs and senior director at the National
Security Council for arms control and
nonproliferation. During his time in government,
he was involved in almost every aspect of US
nuclear weapons, arms control, nonproliferation
and security policy. Previously, Wolfsthal was the
Deputy Director of the Center for Nonproliferation
Studies at the Monterey Institute of International
Studies, and served for three years as special
advisor to Vice President Biden on issues of
nuclear security and nonproliferation. He served in
several capacities during the 1990s at the US
Department of Energy, including an on-the-ground
assignment in North Korea during 1995-96. With
Joseph Cirincione, he is the author of Deadly
Arsenals: Tracking Weapons of Mass Destruction.
Wolfsthal is a non-resident fellow with the
Carnegie Endowment for International Peace.
Editor
John Mecklin is the editor-in-chief of the Bulletin
of the Atomic Scientists. Previously, he was the top
editor of Miller-McCune (subsequently known
as Paci c Standard), High Country News, and three
other magazines. Outside the publications he has
led, Mecklin's writing has appeared in Foreign
Policy magazine, the Columbia Journalism
Review, and the Reuters news wire, among other
publications. Writers working at his direction have
won many major journalism contests, including the
George Polk Award. Mecklin holds a master in
public administration degree from Harvard’s
Kennedy School of Government.Government.
Bulletin of the Atomic Scientists 15
fi
ff
ffiBiographies (cont.)
About the Bulletin of the Atomic Scientists
At our core, the Bulletin of the Atomic The Bulletin has many audiences: the general
Scientists is a media organization, publishing a public, which will ultimately bene t or su er
free-access website and a bimonthly magazine. from scienti c breakthroughs; policymakers,
But we are much more. The Bulletin’s website, whose duty is to harness those breakthroughs
iconic Doomsday Clock, and regular events for good; and the scientists themselves, who
equip the public, policy makers, and scientists produce those technological advances and
with the information needed to reduce thus bear a special responsibility. Our
manmade threats to our existence. The community is international, with half of our
Bulletin focuses on three main areas: nuclear website visitors coming from outside the
risk, climate change, and disruptive United States. It is also young. Half are under
technologies. What connects these topics is a the age of 35.
driving belief that because humans created
them, we can control them. To learn more, visit our website:
The Bulletin is an independent, nonpro t https://thebulletin.org
501(c)(3) organization. We gather the most
informed and in uential voices tracking man-
made threats and bring their innovative
thinking to a global audience. We apply
intellectual rigor to the conversation and do
not shrink from alarming truths.
Bulletin of the Atomic Scientists 16
fi
fl
fi
fi
ffTimeline of Doomsday Clock changes
2021 IT IS STILL 100 SECONDS TO threat of nuclear war and unchecked climate
MIDNIGHT If humanity is to avoid an change. Given the inaction of their leaders to date,
existential catastrophe—one that would citizens of the world should make a loud and clear
dwarf anything it has yet seen—national leaders demand: #RewindTheDoomsdayClock.
must do a far better job of countering
disinformation, heeding science, and cooperating 2018 IT IS 2 MINUTES TO MIDNIGHT
to diminish global risks. Citizens around the world The failure of world leaders to address the
can and should organize and demand—through largest threats to humanity’s future is
public protests, at ballot boxes, and in other lamentable—but that failure can be reversed. It is
creative ways—that their governments reorder two minutes to midnight, but the Doomsday Clock
their priorities and cooperate domestically and has ticked away from midnight in the past, and
internationally to reduce the risk of nuclear war, during the next year, the world can again move it
climate change, and other global disasters, further from apocalypse. The warning the Science
including pandemic disease. and Security Board now sends is clear, the danger
obvious and imminent. The opportunity to reduce
2020 IT IS 100 SECONDS TO MIDNIGHT the danger is equally clear. The world has seen the
Humanity continues to face two threat posed by the misuse of information
simultaneous existential dangers—nuclear technology and witnessed the vulnerability of
war and climate change—that are compounded by democracies to disinformation. But there is a ip
a threat multiplier, cyber-enabled information side to the abuse of social media. Leaders react
warfare, that undercuts society’s ability to respond. when citizens insist they do so, and citizens around
Faced with this daunting threat landscape and a the world can use the power of the internet to
new willingness of political leaders to reject the improve the long-term prospects of their children
negotiations and institutions that can protect and grandchildren. They can insist on facts, and
civilization over the long term, the Science and discount nonsense. They can demand action to
Security Board moved the Doomsday Clock 20 reduce the existential threat of nuclear war and
seconds closer to midnight—closer to apocalypse unchecked climate change. They can seize the
than ever. In so doing, board members are opportunity to make a safer and saner world.
explicitly warning leaders and citizens around the
world that the international security situation is 2017 IT IS TWO AND A HALF MINUTES
now more dangerous than it has ever been, even at TO MIDNIGHT For the last two years, the
the height of the Cold War. minute hand of the Doomsday Clock stayed
set at three minutes before the hour, the closest it
2019 IT IS STILL 2 MINUTES TO had been to midnight since the early 1980s. In its
MIDNIGHT The “new abnormal” that we two most recent annual announcements on the
describe, and that the world now inhabits, Clock, the Science and Security Board warned:
is unsustainable and extremely dangerous. The “The probability of global catastrophe is very high,
world security situation can be improved, if and the actions needed to reduce the risks of
leaders seek change and citizens demand it. It is disaster must be taken very soon.” In 2017, we nd
two minutes to midnight, but there is no reason the the danger to be even greater, the need for action
Doomsday Clock cannot move away from more urgent. It is two and a half minutes to
catastrophe. It has done so in the past, because midnight, the Clock is ticking, global danger looms.
wise leaders acted— under pressure from Wise public o cials should act immediately,
informed and engaged citizens around the world. guiding humanity away from the brink. If they do
Today, citizens in every country can use the power not, wise citizens must step forward and lead the
of the Internet to ght against social media way.
disinformation and improve the long-term
prospects of their children and grandchildren.
They can insist on facts, and discount nonsense.
They can demand action to reduce the existential
Bulletin of the Atomic Scientists 17
ffi
fi
fl
fiTimeline (cont.)
2016 IT IS STILL 3 MINUTES TO 2010 IT IS 6 MINUTES TO MIDNIGHT
MIDNIGHT “Last year, the Science and International cooperation rules the day.
Security Board moved the Doomsday Clock Talks between Washington and Moscow
forward to three minutes to midnight, noting: ‘The for a follow-on agreement to the Strategic Arms
probability of global catastrophe is very high, and Reduction Treaty are nearly complete, and more
the actions needed to reduce the risks of disaster negotiations for further reductions in the U.S.
must be taken very soon.’ That probability has not and Russian nuclear arsenal are already planned.
been reduced. The Clock ticks. Global danger Additionally, Barack Obama becomes the rst U.S.
looms. Wise leaders should act—immediately.” president to publicly call for a nuclear-weapon-
free world. The dangers posed by climate change
2015 IT IS 3 MINUTES TO MIDNIGHT are still great, but there are pockets of progress.
“Unchecked climate change, global nuclear Most notably: At Copenhagen, the developing and
weapons modernizations, and outsized industrialized countries agree to take
nuclear weapons arsenals pose extraordinary and responsibility for carbon emissions and to limit
undeniable threats to the continued existence global temperature rise to 2 degrees Celsius.
of humanity, and world leaders have failed to
act with the speed or on the scale required to 2007 IT IS 5 MINUTES TO MIDNIGHT
protect citizens from potential catastrophe. These The world stands at the brink of a second
failures of political leadership endanger every nuclear age. The United States and Russia
person on Earth.” Despite some modestly positive remain ready to stage a nuclear attack within
developments in the climate change arena, current minutes, North Korea conducts a nuclear test, and
e orts are entirely insu cient to prevent a many in the international community worry that
catastrophic warming of Earth. Meanwhile, the Iran plans to acquire the Bomb. Climate change
United States and Russia have embarked on also presents a dire challenge to humanity. Damage
massive programs to modernize their nuclear to ecosystems is already taking place; ooding,
triads—thereby undermining existing nuclear destructive storms, increased drought, and polar
weapons treaties. “The clock ticks now at just ice melt are causing loss of life and property.
three minutes to midnight because international
leaders are failing to perform their most important 2002 IT IS 7 MINUTES TO MIDNIGHT
duty—ensuring and preserving the health and Concerns regarding a nuclear terrorist
vitality of human civilization.” attack underscore the enormous amount of
unsecured—and sometimes unaccounted for—
2012 IT IS 5 MINUTES TO MIDNIGHT weapon-grade nuclear materials located
“The challenges to rid the world of nuclear throughout the world. Meanwhile, the United
weapons, harness nuclear power, and meet States expresses a desire to design new nuclear
the nearly inexorable climate disruptions from weapons, with an emphasis on those able to
global warming are complex and interconnected. destroy hardened and deeply buried targets. It also
In the face of such complex problems, it is di cult rejects a series of arms control treaties and
to see where the capacity lies to address these announces it will withdraw from the Anti-Ballistic
challenges.” Political processes seem wholly Missile Treaty.
inadequate; the potential for nuclear weapons use
in regional con icts in the Middle East, Northeast 1998 IT IS 9 MINUTES TO MIDNIGHT
Asia, and South Asia are alarming; safer nuclear India and Pakistan stage nuclear weapons
reactor designs need to be developed and built, tests only three weeks apart. “The tests are
and more stringent oversight, training, and a symptom of the failure of the international
attention are needed to prevent future disasters; community to fully commit itself to control the
the pace of technological solutions to address spread of nuclear weapons—and to work toward
climate change may not be adequate to meet the substantial reductions in the numbers of these
hardships that large-scale disruption of the climate weapons,” a dismayed Bulletin reports. Russia and
portends. the United States continue to serve as poor
Bulletin of the Atomic Scientists 18
ff
fl
ffi
fl
fi
ffiYou can also read
