BE PREPARED: CLIMATE CHANGE AND THE NSW BUSHFIRE THREAT - CLIMATE COUNCIL

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BE PREPARED: CLIMATE CHANGE AND THE NSW BUSHFIRE THREAT - CLIMATE COUNCIL
Be Prepared:
Climate
change
and the
NSW
bushfire
threat

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providing quality information on climate change to the Australian public.

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BE PREPARED: CLIMATE CHANGE AND THE NSW BUSHFIRE THREAT - CLIMATE COUNCIL
Authorship:
Professor Lesley Hughes
Published by the Climate Council of Australia Limited
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Be Prepared: Climate change and the NSW bushfire threat
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                  Professor Lesley Hughes
                  Climate Councillor
BE PREPARED: CLIMATE CHANGE AND THE NSW BUSHFIRE THREAT - CLIMATE COUNCIL
Introduction
     Residents of New South Wales (NSW)          We begin this report by describing
     have often experienced the serious          the background context of fire and its
     consequences of bushfires.                  history in NSW. We then outline the link
                                                 between bushfires and climate change,
     In 2013, bushfires in January and October
                                                 before considering how bushfire danger
     burnt 768,000 hectares of land and
                                                 weather is intensifying in NSW and
     destroyed 279 homes. Tragically, 2 people
                                                 what this means for the immediate
     lost their lives and damages were in
                                                 future. We explore the impacts of fire
     excess of an estimated $180 million.
                                                 on people, property, water supply
     Australians have always lived with          and biodiversity, before considering
     fire and its consequences, but climate      the future implications of bushfires
     change is increasing fire danger weather    for NSW fire managers, planners
     and thus the risk of fires. In NSW the      and emergency services.
     bushfire season has started early in 55
     Local Government Areas and properties
     have already been destroyed. It is time
     to think very seriously about the risks
     that future fires will pose.

Climatecouncil.org.au                                                                       Page 1
BE PREPARED: CLIMATE CHANGE AND THE NSW BUSHFIRE THREAT - CLIMATE COUNCIL
Be Prepared: Climate change and the NSW bushfire threat

              Key Findings
              1. Climate change is already                 2. In NSW the fire season is
                 increasing the risk of bushfires             starting earlier and lasting
                 in New South Wales (NSW).                    longer. Fire weather has
                 ›› Extreme fire weather has increased
                                                              been extending into Spring
                    over the last 30 years in NSW.
                                                              and Autumn.
                                                             ›› This year, the bushfire season has
                 ›› Hot, dry conditions have a major
                                                                started early in parts of NSW. The
                    influence on bushfires. Climate
                                                                state’s statutory Bush Fire Danger
                    change is making hot days hotter,
                                                                Period begins on the 1st of October,
                    and heatwaves longer and more
                                                                but this year 55 Local Government
                    frequent, with increasing drought
                                                                Areas have started the season early
                    conditions in Australia’s southeast.
                                                                with some beginning the danger
                 ›› 2013 was Australia’s hottest year           period on the 1st of August and
                    on record and in NSW the annual             others on the 1st of September.
                    mean temperature was 1.23°C
                                                             ›› The fire season will continue to
                    above average. The summer of
                                                                lengthen into the future, straining
                    2013/14 was also the driest summer
                                                                NSW’s existing resources for
                    that Sydney has experienced in 27
                                                                fighting and managing fires.
                    years. These conditions are driving
                    up the likelihood of very high fire    3. Recent severe fires in NSW
                    danger weather in the state.              have been influenced by
                 ›› Australia is a fire prone country         record hot, dry conditions.
                    and has always experienced               ›› Record breaking heat and hotter
                    bushfires. But all extreme weather          weather over the long term in
                    events are now being influenced             NSW has worsened fire weather
                    by climate change because they              and contributed to an increase
                    are occurring in a climate system           in the frequency and severity of
                    that is hotter and moister than it          bushfires.
                    was 50 years ago.

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BE PREPARED: CLIMATE CHANGE AND THE NSW BUSHFIRE THREAT - CLIMATE COUNCIL
›› In October 2013, exceptionally       5. In the future, NSW is very
          dry conditions contributed to           likely to experience an
          severe bushfires on the Central         increased number of days
          Coast and in the Blue Mountains         with extreme fire danger.
          of NSW, which early estimates           Communities, emergency
          suggest caused over $180 million        services and health services
          in damages.                             across NSW must prepare.
       ›› At the beginning of August in 2014      ›› Fire severity and intensity is expected
          volunteers were fighting 90 fires          to increase substantially in coming
          simultaneously and properties              decades, especially in those regions
          were destroyed.                            currently most affected by bushfires,
                                                     and where a substantial proportion of
     4. The total economic costs of
                                                     the Australian population lives, such
        NSW bushfires in 2014 are
                                                     as NSW.
        projected to be $43 million.
        By around the middle of                   ›› Increased resources for our
        the century these costs will                 emergency services and fire
        almost triple.                               management agencies will be
                                                     required as fire risk increases. By
       ›› Bushfires have caused significant
                                                     2030, it has been estimated that the
          economic damage, estimated at
                                                     number of professional firefighters in
          $337 million per year (2011$) in
                                                     Australia will need to approximately
          Australia. With a forecast growth
                                                     double (compared to 2010) to keep
          in costs of 2.2% annually between
                                                     pace with increased population, asset
          2014 and 2050, the total economic
                                                     value, and fire danger weather.
          cost of bushfires is expected to
          reach $800 million annually by       6. This is the critical decade
          mid‑century.
                                                  ›› Australia must strive to cut emissions
       ›› These state and national                   rapidly and deeply to join global
          projections do not incorporate             efforts to stabilise the world’s climate
          increased bushfire incident rates          and to reduce the risk of even more
          due to climate change and could            extreme events, including bushfires.
          potentially be much higher.

Climatecouncil.org.au                                                                           Page 3
BE PREPARED: CLIMATE CHANGE AND THE NSW BUSHFIRE THREAT - CLIMATE COUNCIL
Be Prepared: Climate change and the NSW bushfire threat

            1. The nature of bushfires

              Figure 1: Hazard reduction burn in NSW

              Fire has been a feature of the Australian      describes a recurrent pattern of fire, with
              environment for at least 65 million years      the most important characteristics being
              (Cary et al. 2012). Human management of        the frequency, intensity, and seasonality of
              fires also has a long history, starting with   the fire. Significant changes in any of these
              fire use by indigenous Australians (“fire-     features of a fire regime can have a very
              stick farming”) up to 60,000 years ago.        important influence on its ecological and
              Between 3% and 10% of Australia’s land         economic impacts (Williams et al. 2009).
              area burns every year (Western Australian
                                                             Fire is a complex process that is very
              Land Information Authority 2013).
                                                             variable in space and time. A fire needs to
              In Australia, the Forest Fire Danger Index     be started (ignition), it needs something
              (FFDI) is used to measure the degree of risk   to burn (fuel) and it needs conditions that
              of fire in our forests (Luke and Macarthur     are conducive to its spread (weather and
              1978). The Bureau of Meteorology (BoM)         topography) (see Figure 2). Fire activity
              and fire management agencies use the           is strongly influenced by weather, fuel,
              FFDI to assess fire risk and issue warnings.   terrain, ignition agents and people. The
              The index was originally designed on a         most important aspects of weather that
              scale from 0 to 100, with fires between        affect fire and fuels are temperature,
              75 and 100 considered ‘extreme’. The           precipitation, wind and humidity. Once
              unprecedented ferocity of the 2009 Black       a fire is ignited, very hot days with low
              Saturday bushfires in Victoria saw a new       humidity and high winds are conducive
              ‘catastrophic’ category added to the FFDI      to its spread. The type, amount, and
              for events exceeding the existing scale.       moisture level of fuel available are also
                                                             critical determinants of fire behaviour,
              The concept of “fire regimes” is important
                                                             extent and intensity (Climate Council
              for understanding the nature of bushfires
                                                             2014d). The relationship between rainfall
              in Australia, and for assessing changes in
                                                             and fuel is complex. Wet seasons can lead
              fire behaviour caused by both human and
                                                             to increased plant growth and therefore
              climatic factors (Figure 2). A fire regime
                                                             increase fuel buildup in the months or

 Page 4                                                                      Climatecouncil.org.au
BE PREPARED: CLIMATE CHANGE AND THE NSW BUSHFIRE THREAT - CLIMATE COUNCIL
years before a fire is ignited (Bradstock    conditions and the moisture content
     et al. 2009). Warmer temperatures and        of the fuel. As fire weather conditions
     low rainfall in the period immediately       become more severe, fuel moisture
     preceding an ignition, however, can lead     content declines, making the fuel more
     to drier vegetation and soil, making the     flammable. By contrast, in arid regions,
     existing fuel more flammable. Warmer         vegetation and thus fuel in most years is
     temperatures can also be associated with     sparsely distributed and fires, if ignited,
     a higher incidence of lightning activity     rarely spread far. In Australia’s southeast,
     (Jayaratne and Kuleshov 2006), increasing    fires are common in the heathlands and
     the risk of ignition.                        dry sclerophyll forests, typically occurring
                                                  about every 5 to 30 years, with spring and
     In the temperate forests of NSW, fire
                                                  summer being peak fire season (Clarke et
     activity is strongly determined by weather
                                                  al. 2011; Bradstock et al. 2012).

     Figure 2: Main factors affecting bushfires

Climatecouncil.org.au                                                                            Page 5
BE PREPARED: CLIMATE CHANGE AND THE NSW BUSHFIRE THREAT - CLIMATE COUNCIL
Be Prepared: Climate change and the NSW bushfire threat

              Since 1926, in NSW 27 significant bushfire
              events have affected hundreds of thousands of
              hectares of land and killed livestock, destroyed
              thousands of homes, and claimed 116 lives.
              Since 1926, in NSW 27 significant                                                         and settlements (Willis 2005; Penman
              bushfire events have affected hundreds                                                    et al. 2013). Some of Australia’s most
              of thousands of hectares of land and                                                      catastrophic bushfires have been ignited
              killed livestock, destroyed thousands                                                     by powerline faults. But people also play
              of homes, and claimed 116 lives (NSW                                                      an important role in reducing fire risk,
              PRS 2014).                                                                                by vegetation management including
                                                                                                        prescribed burning to reduce fuel
              People are a very important component
                                                                                                        load and conducting fire suppression
              of the fire equation. Many fires are
                                                                                                        activities. Interventions such as total
              either deliberately or accidentally
                                                                                                        fire ban days also play a pivotal role in
              lit, and in places where population
                                                                                                        reducing ignitions under dangerous
              density is high, the probability of a
                                                                                                        fire conditions.
              fire igniting increases close to roads
               Ten major bushfires in NSW that have seen major damage to
               homes, property, land and loss of life since 1926

                                                                                                                                                     CASINO

                                                                                                                                             North
                                                                                                          MOREE
                                                                                                                                             Coast
                                                                                           North West
                                                                                                                            New                      COFFS

                                            Darling                                                                        England                   HARBOUR
                                                                                                                               ARMIDALE

                                                                                                                                                               1926 Glen Innes, Dubbo, Forbes,
                                                                                                               GUNNEDAH                                        Cowra, Parkes, Wagga Wagga,
                                                                                                                                           KEMPSEY             Pambula and Eden
                                                                                                                                                               1944 Blue Mountains and Lochinvar
                  BROKEN                                                                          Central North
                  HILL                                                Central West                                                        TAREE                1979-80 Duffys Forests and surrounds

                                                                                        DUBBO                              Mid-Coast                           1984-5 Western Division
                           Western                                                                                                                             1990-91 Baulkham Hills, Gosford,
                                                                                                                                                               Wyong and Lake Macquarie
                                                                                                                                    NEWCASTLE
                                                                                                                                                               1993-94 North and South Coast, Blue
                                                                                                                                                               Mountains and Sydney
                                                                   Lachlan     FORBES
                                                                                                        BATHURST
                                                                                                                                                               1997-98 Burragong, Shoalhaven,
                                                                                         COWRA                                                                 Central Coast and surrounds
                                                                                                Tablelands                 SYDNEY

                                                       GRIFFITH                                                                                                2002-03 Greater Sydney, North and
                                                                                                                                                               South Coast and Tablelands
                                                                                COOTAMUNDRA
                                     Riverina                                                     GOULBURN
                                                                                                                                                               January 2013 Coonabarabran,
                                                                      WAGGA                                        NOWRA                                       Cooma, Yass and surrounds
                                                                      WAGGA
                                                                                                                                                               October 2013 Blue Mountains,
                                     DENILIQUIN                       Hume                                                                                     Souther Highlands, Central Coast and
                                                                                          ACT
                                                                                                                                                               surrounds

                                                                                                COOMA

                                                                                        South East

                                        0         75         150              300
                                                             km

              Figure 3: Ten major bushfires in NSW that have damaged homes, property, land and
              resulted in loss of life since 1926

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BE PREPARED: CLIMATE CHANGE AND THE NSW BUSHFIRE THREAT - CLIMATE COUNCIL
2. W
         hat is the link
        between bushfires
        and climate change?

     Figure 4: The NSW Rural Fire Service in Belrose, NSW

     A fire needs to be started (ignition), it needs   between bushfires and climate change
     something to burn (fuel) and it needs             therefore comes from the relationship
     conditions that are conducive to its spread       between the long-term trend towards
     (weather) (Section 1). Climate change             a warmer climate due to increasing
     can affect all of these factors in both           greenhouse gas emissions—the increasing
     straightforward and more complex ways.            amount of heat in the atmosphere—
                                                       and the incidence of very hot days. Put
     The role of climate change in ignition
                                                       simply, climate change is increasing the
     is likely to be relatively small compared
                                                       frequency and severity of very hot days
     to the fuel and weather, but may still
                                                       (IPCC 2012; 2013), and is driving up the
     be significant. For example, lightning
                                                       likelihood of very high fire danger weather
     accounts for ~27% of the ignitions in
                                                       (see Section 3). The 2013 October bushfires
     the Sydney region (Bradstock 2008) and
                                                       in the Blue Mountains of NSW illustrate the
     the incidence of lightning is sensitive to
                                                       role of weather conditions in affecting fire
     weather conditions, including temperature
                                                       severity. The bushfires were preceded by
     (Jayaratne and Kuleshov 2006). Climate
                                                       the warmest September on record for the
     change can also affect fuel. For example,
                                                       state, the warmest 12 months on record
     a lack of rainfall can dry out the soil and
                                                       for Australia, and below average rainfall
     vegetation, making existing fuel more
                                                       in forested areas, leading to very dry fuels
     combustible. But whilst climate change
                                                       (Bushfire CRC 2013).
     can affect ignition and fuel, it is the impact
     of climate change on weather that has the         It is important to note that climate change
     most significant influence on fire activity.      is already increasing the intensity and
                                                       frequency of some extreme events such
     Very hot, dry and windy days create very
                                                       as very hot days and droughts.
     high bushfire risk. The most direct link

Climatecouncil.org.au                                                                                 Page 7
BE PREPARED: CLIMATE CHANGE AND THE NSW BUSHFIRE THREAT - CLIMATE COUNCIL
Be Prepared: Climate change and the NSW bushfire threat

              The strength of trends and the               is expected to increase the number
              confidence in their attribution, however,    of days with very high and extreme
              varies between regions and between           fire weather, particularly in southern
              different types of event (IPCC 2012;         Australia (IPCC 2014).
              2013; 2014). Extreme weather events,
              like bushfires, are influenced by a
              number of different factors. That’s why
                                                           Climate change is
              asking if a weather event is “caused” by     expected to increase
              climate change is the wrong question.
              All extreme weather events are now           the number of days
              being influenced by climate change           with very high and
              because they are occurring in a climate
              system that is hotter and moister than       extreme fire weather,
              it was 50 years ago (Trenberth 2012).
              The latest IPCC report confirms with
                                                           particularly in
              high confidence that climate change          southern Australia

              3. Observations
                  of changing
                  bushfire danger
                  weather in NSW
              Increasing hot days, heatwaves and           These heatwaves are becoming
              rainfall deficiencies in NSW are driving     more intense over time, with average
              up the likelihood of very high fire danger   heatwave intensity increasing in
              weather in the state.                        Sydney by 1.5°C, since 1950 (BoM 2013a;
                                                           Climate Council 2014c). Record high
              While hot weather has always been
                                                           temperatures persisted into 2013, which
              common in Australia’s southeast, it
                                                           proved to be Australia’s hottest year
              has become more common and severe
                                                           on record, with the mean maximum
              over the past few decades, including
                                                           temperature during the year 1.45°C
              in NSW (see Figure 5). The southeast of
                                                           above average (BoM 2014c; Climate
              Australia has experienced significant
                                                           Council 2014a). Temperatures soared in
              warming during the last 50 years (Timbal
                                                           NSW, with annual mean temperature
              et al. 2012). The summer of 2012/13 was
                                                           1.23°C above average. The monthly
              the hottest on record nationally, with
                                                           average temperature record for NSW
              two intense and prolonged heatwaves
                                                           in September was shattered by 4.68°C
              in early January and March setting all
                                                           and October was also the second
              time-high maximum temperatures
                                                           warmest month on record in Sydney,
              in Sydney (Climate Council 2014c).

 Page 8                                                                   Climatecouncil.org.au
at 3.6°C above the long-term average         throughout the 21st century and predicts
     (BoM 2014d; Climate Commission               with high confidence that bushfire
     2013; Climate Council 2014a). The            danger weather will increase in most of
     IPCC projects with virtual certainty         southern Australia, including New South
     that warming in Australia will continue      Wales (IPCC 2014).

     Figure 5: NSW/ACT increasing heat (Australian Bureau of Meteorology). Blue bars
     indicate years where annual temperatures were below average, and red bars indicate
     years of above average temperatures.

     Much of eastern Australia has become         the driest summer that Sydney has
     drier since the 1970s, with the southeast    experienced in 27 years (BoM 2014a;
     experiencing a drying trend due to           Climate Council 2014b). BoM projections
     declines in rainfall combined with           indicate that this drying trend will persist
     increased temperatures (BoM 2013b;           this year, with a drier than normal
     Climate Commission 2013). Since the          October to December likely for most of
     mid-1990s, southeast Australia has           eastern and northern NSW (BoM 2014b).
     experienced a 15 percent decline in late     This long-term rainfall deficit across
     autumn and early winter rainfall and a       southern Australia, coupled with above
     25 percent decline in average rainfall       average temperatures, has reduced soil
     in April and May (CSIRO & BoM 2014).         moisture and has lead to the drying of
     Rainfall deficiencies for the eight months   heavy fuels in forests, increasing bushfire
     from December 2013 to July 2014 have         potential in NSW (Bushfire and Natural
     increased in extent over northeastern        Hazards CRC 2014).
     NSW and the summer of 2013/14 was

Climatecouncil.org.au                                                                            Page 9
Be Prepared: Climate change and the NSW bushfire threat

              It is very likely that an increased            the 1970s, with the FFDI increasing
              incidence of drought in the southeast          significantly at 16 of 38 weather stations
              —coupled with consecutive hot and dry          across Australia between 1973 and
              days—will in turn result in longer fire        2010, with the majority of these stations
              seasons and an ever larger number of           concentrated in Australia’s southeast
              days of extreme fire danger in coming          and none of the stations recording a
              decades (e.g. Clarke et al. 2011; 2013).       significant decrease (Clarke et al. 2013).
                                                             These changes have been most marked
              The concept of a                               in spring, indicating a lengthening fire
                                                             season across southern Australia, with
              ‘normal’ bushfire                              fire weather extending into October
              season is rapidly                              and March.

              changing as bushfires                          This year the bushfire season has started
                                                             early in parts of NSW. The state’s statutory
              continue to increase                           Bush Fire Danger Period begins on the
              in number, burn for                            1st of October, but this year 55 Local
                                                             Government Areas have started the
              longer and affect                              season early with some beginning the

              larger areas of land.                          danger period on the 1st of August and
                                                             others on the 1st of September. At the
                                                             beginning of August volunteers were
              The concept of a ‘normal’ bushfire             fighting 90 fires simultaneously and
              season is rapidly changing as bushfires        properties were destroyed (NSW RFS 2014).
              continue to increase in number, burn           The lengthening fire season means that
              for longer and affect larger areas of land     opportunities for fuel reduction burning
              (Bushfire and Natural Hazards CRC 2014).       are reducing (Matthews et al. 2012). The
              The influence of hotter, drier weather         Southern Australia Seasonal Bushfire
              conditions on the likelihood of bushfire       Outlook for 2014/15 (see Figure 7) projects
              spread in NSW is captured by changes in        that due to the hotter, drier weather in
              the Forest Fire Danger Index (FFDI), an        southeast Australia, above normal fire
              indicator of extreme fire weather. NSW         activity can be expected in the coastal
              has already experienced a significant          tablelands and central slopes of NSW
              increase in extreme fire weather since         (Bushfire and Natural Hazards CRC 2014).

              Figure 6: Charred tree after a bushfire, NSW

 Page 10                                                                     Climatecouncil.org.au
The Southern Australia Seasonal Bushfire
     Outlook for 2014/15 projects that due to the
     hotter, drier weather in southeast Australia,
     above normal fire activity can be expected in
     the coastal tablelands and central slopes of NSW

         Bushfire Bushfire
                  Potential    2014-15
                           Potential 2014-15
                   Above Normal
    Above Normal   Normal

    Normal

     Figure 7: Southern Australia Seasonal Bushfire Outlook
     (Bushfire and Natural Hazards CRC 2014)

     Research aimed at understanding future     Future changes in the El Niño-Southern
     fire activity in NSW has a long history    Oscillation (ENSO) phenomenon are
     (Table 1). While the detailed results of   also likely to have an influence on fire
     these studies vary due to the use of       activity. There is a strong positive
     different global circulation models        relationship between El Niño events
     (GCMs) and different climate scenarios,    and fire weather conditions in southeast
     their collective conclusion is clear—      and central Australia (Williams and
     weather conditions conducive to fire       Karoly 1999; Verdon et al. 2004; Lucas
     in the southeast and southwest of the      2005) and between El Niño events and
     continent are becoming increasingly        actual fire activity (Harris et al. 2013).
     frequent and this trend will continue
     (Climate Council 2014d).

Climatecouncil.org.au                                                                        Page 11
Be Prepared: Climate change and the NSW bushfire threat

              Significant changes have occurred in             El Niño-driven drying in the western
              the nature of ENSO since the 1970s, with         Pacific Ocean by mid-to late 21st century
              the phenomenon being more active and             (Power et al. 2013); such a change would
              intense during the 1979–2009 period              increase the incidence of heat and
              than at any other time in the past 600           drought, and potentially fire activity,
              years (Aiken et al. 2013). Although there        in eastern Australia.
              is no consensus on the influence of
                                                               Table 1: Summary of projections from
              climate change on ENSO behaviour,                modelling studies aimed at projecting
              recent projections suggest increases in          changes in fire risk in southeast Australia

               Study                      Projections
               Beer et al. (1988)         10%–20% increase in FFDI in southeast
               Beer and Williams (1995)   Increase in FFDI with doubling of atmospheric CO2, commonly
                                          >10% across most of continent, especially in the southeast, with a
                                          few small areas showing decreases
               Williams et al. (2001)     General trend towards decreasing frequency of low and moderate fire
                                          danger rating days, but an increasing frequency of very high and in
                                          some cases extreme fire danger days
               Cary and Banks (2000),     Direct effects of a 3–4°C temperature increase in the ACT would more
               Cary (2002)                than double fire frequency, increase average fire intensity by 20%,
                                          increase the area burned in autumn, and reduce areas burned in spring
               Hennessy (2007)            Potential increase of very high and extreme FFDI days 4%–25% by
                                          2020, 15%–70% by 2050
               Lucas et al. (2007)        Increases in annual FFDI of up to 30% by 2050 over historical levels in
                                          southeast Australia and up to a trebling in the number of days per year
                                          where the uppermost values of the index are exceeded. The largest
                                          changes projected to occur in the arid and semi-arid interior of NSW
                                          and northern Victoria.
               Pitman et al. (2007)       Probability of extreme fire risk in 2050 increased by about 20%
                                          under both relatively low and relatively high scenarios, and increased
                                          dramatically (50%–100%) by 2100 under high scenario along the
                                          NSW coast and more than 100% along the QLD coast. In the Perth
                                          region, impact projected to be more limited (less than 25% in both 2050
                                          and 2100 (less than 25% in both 2050 and 2100).
               Bradstock et al. (2009)    20%-84% increase in potential ignition days for large (> 1000 ha)
                                          fires in the Blue Mountains and Central Coast regions by 2050
               Hasson et al. (2009)       Analysed likelihood of increase in incidence of synoptic weather
                                          pattern in southeast Australia known to be associated with extreme
                                          fire events. Projected potential frequency of extreme events to increase
                                          from around 1 event every 2 years during the late 20th century to
                                          around 1 event per year in the middle of the 21st century, and to
                                          around 1 to 2 events per year by the end of the 21st century
               Clarke et al. (2011)       FFDI projected to decrease or show little change in the tropical
                                          northeast. In the southeast, FFDI projected to increase strongly by
                                          end of the 21st century, with the fire season extending in length and
                                          starting earlier
               Matthews et al. (2012)     Warming and drying climate projected to produce drier, more
                                          flammable fuel, and to increase rate of fire spread

 Page 12                                                                          Climatecouncil.org.au
4. Impacts of
        bushfires in NSW
     In NSW, bushfires have had a very wide       Communities in NSW are particularly
     range of human and environmental             vulnerable to bushfires because
     impacts, including loss of life and severe   large populations live close to highly
     health effects, damage to property,          flammable native vegetation, such as
     devastation of communities and effects       eucalyptus trees, that are exposed to
     on water and natural ecosystems              frequent severe fire weather (Chen and
     (Stephenson 2010).                           McAneney 2010; Handmer et al. 2012;
                                                  Price and Bradstock 2013). For example,
     4.1 Health Impacts                           in the Blue Mountains, approximately
                                                  38,000 homes are within 200 metres of
     Large populations in NSW are at risk         bushland, and 30,000 within 100 metres;
     from the health impacts of bushfires,        with many of these homes backing
     which have contributed to physical           directly onto bushland (McAneney 2013).
     and mental illness as well as death.

     Large populations in NSW are at risk from
     the health impacts of bushfires, which have
     contributed to physical and mental illness as
     well as death.
     Tragically, in Australia bushfires have      to its impacts (Spracklen et al. 2009;
     accounted for more than 800 deaths           Dennekamp and Abramson 2011;
     since 1850 (Cameron et al. 2009; King        Bernstein and Rice 2013). Smoke from
     et al. 2013), and have contributed to 116    bushfires in the Blue Mountains regularly
     deaths since 1926 in NSW (NSW PRS            affects Sydney’s air quality. Days with
     2014). In addition to fatalities, bushfire   severe pollution from bushfires around
     smoke can seriously affect health. Smoke     Sydney are associated with increases
     contains not only respiratory irritants,     in all-cause mortality of around 5%
     but also inflammatory and cancer-            (Johnston et al. 2011). The estimated
     causing chemicals (Bernstein and             annual health costs of bushfire smoke in
     Rice 2013). Smoke can be transported         Sydney are also high, at $8.2 million per
     in the atmosphere for hundreds or            annum (adjusted to 2011 values) (Deloitte
     even thousands of kilometres from the        Access Economics 2014).
     fire front, exposing large populations

Climatecouncil.org.au                                                                         Page 13
Be Prepared: Climate change and the NSW bushfire threat

              During the Blue Mountains bushfires           at higher risk (Morgan et al. 2010).
              in October 2013, air quality levels in the
                                                            In addition to physical health impacts,
              Sydney region were measured at 50 times
                                                            the trauma and stress of experiencing a
              worse than normal. NSW Health recorded
                                                            bushfire can also increase depression,
              that 228 people attended hospital
                                                            anxiety, and other mental health issues,
              with breathing difficulties; 778 other
                                                            both in the immediate aftermath of
              individuals were treated by ambulance
                                                            the trauma and for months or years
              staff and there was a 124 per cent increase
                                                            afterwards (McFarlane and Raphael
              in patients with asthma conditions
                                                            1984; Sim 2002; Whittaker et al. 2012).
              seeking hospital treatment (AEM 2013). A
                                                            Following the 2013 Blue Mountains
              study of hospital admissions from 1994–
                                                            bushfires, mental health charity ‘Beyond
              2007 has found that hospital admissions
                                                            Blue’ collaborated with the Australian
              for respiratory illness increased by 12
                                                            Red Cross to develop resources to assist
              percent on days with bushfire smoke in
                                                            bushfire victims with increases in
              Sydney (Martin et al. 2007). The health
                                                            depression and anxiety (Beyond Blue
              impacts of bushfire smoke are by no
                                                            2013a; 2013b) and over 100 households
              means confined to Sydney, with cities
                                                            requested wellbeing assistance from
              such as Newcastle and Wollongong
                                                            Red Cross volunteers (Red Cross 2013).
              also experiencing increases in hospital
                                                            Not for profit organisation, Nepean-Blue
              admissions due to respiratory conditions
                                                            Mountains Medicare Local (NBMML) has
              (Martin et al. 2007). The impacts of
                                                            also established a program to assist those
              bushfire smoke in the community are
                                                            with mental health problems resulting
              also uneven, with the elderly, infants and
                                                            from the October disaster (NBMML
              those with chronic heart or lung diseases

              Figure 8: Bushfire smoke from the Blue Mountains blankets Sydney in 2013

 Page 14                                                                    Climatecouncil.org.au
2014)—although data on the numbers of       a measure that includes insured losses
     patients involved in the program is not     as well as broader social costs, is
     yet publicly available. Post-traumatic      estimated to be $337 million per year
     stress, major depression, anxiety and       in Australia (2011$), a figure that is
     suicide can also manifest among             expected to reach $800 million by 2050
     firefighters, sometimes only becoming       (Deloitte Access Economics 2014). The
     evident many months after an extreme        total economic costs of NSW bushfires
     event (McFarlane 1988; Cook et al. 2013).   for 2014 are projected to be $43 million
                                                 (2011$). By about mid century these costs
     4.2	Economic Costs                          will almost triple, potentially reaching
                                                 $103 million (Deloitte Access Economics
     The economic cost of bushfires—             2014). These estimates take into account
     including loss of life, livelihoods,        increases in the number of households,
     property damage and emergency               growth in the value of housing stock,
     services responses—is very high.            population growth and increasing
     The total economic cost of bushfires,       infrastructure density.

     The total economic costs of NSW bushfires
     for 2014 are projected to be $43 million (2011$).
     By about mid century these costs will almost
     triple, potentially reaching $103 million

     Figure 9: After a bushfire in Ku-ring-gai

Climatecouncil.org.au                                                                        Page 15
Be Prepared: Climate change and the NSW bushfire threat

              Table 2: Damage and loss estimates in ten significant bushfire events in NSW since
              mid-1970s (NSW PRS 2014) (for full list of damages see Appendix A).

               Date      Location                     Area/Property Damage         Deaths      Normalised
                                                                                   /Injured    Cost ($2011
                                                                                               AUD)
               1974–75   Far west, Cobar, Balranald   4,500,000 ha. 50,000 stock   6 deaths    n/a
                         & Moolah-Corinya
               1977–78   Blue Mountains               54,000 ha. 49 buildings      3 deaths    n/a
                                                      destroyed
               1979–80   Duffys Forest, Lucas         > 1,000,000 ha. 28 houses    13 deaths   n/a
                         Heights, Terry Hills,        destroyed. 20 houses
                         Ingleside, Belrose,          damaged
                         Elanora Heights,
                         Lithgow, Mt Wilson,
                         Mt Tomah & Grose Valley
               1984–85   Western Division             3,500,000 ha. 40,000 stock   5 deaths    $179m
               1990–91   Baulkham Hills, Gosford,     14 houses destroyed          2 deaths    $54m
                         Wyong & Lake Macquarie

               1993–94   North coast, Hunter,         > 800,000 ha. 206 houses     4 deaths    $215m
                         South coast, Blue            destroyed
                         Mountains & Sydney
               1997–98   Burragorang, Pilliga,        > 500,000 ha. 10 houses      4 deaths    $8m
                         Hawkesbury, Hunter,          destroyed
                         Shoalhaven, Central Coast
                         & Menai
               2001–02   44 LGAs in Greater           744,000 ha. 109 houses       0 deaths    $131m
                         Sydney, Hunter, North        destroyed. 40 houses
                         Coast, Mid North Coast,      damaged
                         Northern Tablelands &        6,000 stock
                         Central Tablelands
               2002–03   81 LGAs in Greater           1,464,000 ha. 86 houses      3 deaths    $43m (October
                         Sydney, Hunter,              destroyed. 11 houses                     2002 fires)
                         North Coast, Northern        damaged
                         Tablelands, Northern         3,400 stock
                         Rivers, north‑west slopes,
                         north-west plains, Central
                         Tablelands, Southern
                         Tablelands, Illawarra
                         & South Coast
               October   Blue Mountains,              118,000 ha. 222 houses       2 deaths    $183.4m
               2013      Port Stephens,               destroyed, 168 houses                    (early figures)
                         Lake Munmorah,               damaged
                         Hunter, Hawkesbury,
                         Central Coast &
                         Southern Highlands

              NSW has already experienced a                     (Table 2). Indirect costs, such as impacts
              significant increase in extreme fire              on local tourism industries can also be
              weather since the 1970s, and bushfires            significant. For example, a month after
              occurring in NSW from 1970–2013 have              the 2013 Blue Mountains bushfires,
              contributed to 60 deaths, the destruction         tourism operators estimated losses of
              of nearly 800 properties and have                 nearly $30 million due to declines in
              affected over 14 million hectares of land         visitors and cancellations alone.

 Page 16                                                                           Climatecouncil.org.au
Bushfires can cause significant losses in     4.3	Environmental
     farming areas of regional and rural NSW.
     As shown in Table 2, bushfires can cause
                                                       Impacts
     the death of hundreds of thousands of         Fire can affect the quality and quantity of
     livestock and affect significant amounts      water in catchments and have significant
     of farming land. Stock that survives the      impacts on ecosystems.
     initial bushfires can face starvation in
     the post-fire period, as well as threats      4.3.1 Impact on water
     from predators due to the destruction of            quality and quantity
     fences around properties (Stephenson
     2010). Smoke damage can also taint fruit      Large-scale high intensity fires that
     and vegetable crops, with wine grapes         remove vegetation expose topsoils
     particularly susceptible (Stephenson          to erosion and increased runoff after
     2010). For example, bushfires in 2003         subsequent rainfall (Shakesby et al. 2007).
     significantly tainted grapes in NSW with      This can increase sediment and nutrient
     smoky, burnt, ash aromas, making them         concentrations in nearby waterways,
     unusable (Jiranek 2011).                      potentially making water supplies unfit
                                                   for human consumption (Smith et al.
     It is important to note that these            2011; IPCC 2014). For example, bushfires
     economic losses shown in Table 2 do           in January 2003 devastated almost all of
     not account for the full range of costs       the Cotter catchment in the Australian
     associated with bushfires—few attempts        Capital Territory, causing unprecedented
     have been made to account for loss of life,   levels or turbidity, iron and manganese
     social disruption and trauma, opportunity     and significantly disrupting water supply.
     costs for volunteer fire fighters, fixed      Fires can also affect water infrastructure.
     costs for bushfire fighting services,         Fires in the Sydney region in 2002 affected
     government contributions for rebuilding       the Woronora pumping station and water
     and compensation, impacts on health,          filtration plants, resulting in a community
     and ecosystem services (King et al. 2013).    alert to boil drinking water (WRF 2013).

     Figure 10: Brogo Dam, NSW

Climatecouncil.org.au                                                                            Page 17
Be Prepared: Climate change and the NSW bushfire threat

              4.3.2 Impact on ecosystems                     too long, plant species that rely on fire for
                                                             reproduction may be eliminated from an
              Fire is a regular occurrence in many
                                                             ecological community. Animals are also
              Australian ecosystems, and many species
                                                             affected by bushfires, for example if they
              have evolved strategies over millions of
                                                             are restricted to localised habitats and
              years to not only withstand fire, but to
                                                             cannot move quickly, and/or reproduce
              benefit from it (Crisp et al. 2011, Bowman
                                                             slowly, they may be at risk from intense
              et al. 2012). Fire does not “destroy”
                                                             large-scale fires that occur at short
              bushland, as is often reported; rather, it
                                                             intervals (Yates et al. 2008). Deliberate
              acts as a major disturbance with a range
                                                             fuel reduction burning can also destroy
              of complex impacts on different species
                                                             habitats if not managed properly. For
              and communities. Particular fire regimes
                                                             example in the Shoalhaven region of
              (especially specific combinations of fire
                                                             NSW, the threatened eastern bristlebird
              frequency and intensity) can favour
                                                             and the glossy black cockatoo face the
              some species and disadvantage others.
                                                             potential destruction of their habitats
              If fires are too frequent, plant species can
                                                             which overlap with areas of bushland that
              become vulnerable to local extinction as
                                                             are being targeted in hazard reduction
              the supply of seeds in the soil declines.
                                                             burning (Whelan et al. 2009).
              Conversely, if the interval between fires is

              Figure 11: A glossy black cockatoo in NSW

 Page 18                                                                     Climatecouncil.org.au
5. Implications of
        increasing fire activity
     The population of NSW is expected to          costs of bushfires in selected Australia
     grow from 7.4 million people (as of June      states, finding that bushfires in NSW will
     2013), up to 12.6 million people by 2061      cost $103 million by about mid century
     (ABS 2013a; 2013b). The steady urban          (2011$). In addition to insured and social
     encroachment into bushland, along with        losses, health costs from particulate
     increasing fire danger weather, present       matter emitted during bushfires in NSW
     significant and growing challenges for        are projected to cost $8.2 million per
     the state. This challenge is exemplified      annum. Attempting to mitigate these
     in Greater Sydney, a region considered        damages through practices such as
     to be one of the more bushfire-prone          prescribed burning can also be costly.
     areas in Australia. It is home to a quarter   For example, it is likely that NSW is
     of Australia’s population, and 2005           burning around 0.5% of bushland in any
     projections have found that 190,000           given year, at a cost of 13.3 tonnes of
     homes were exposed to greater bushfire        carbon equivalent emissions per hectare
     risk due to their close proximity (within     (Deloitte Access Economics 2014). The
     80m) to dense bushland (Chen 2005).           Deloitte analysis notes that climate
     The Rural Fire Service Commissioner           change will increase very high fire
     Shane Fitzsimmons has said that during        danger weather and associated bushfire
     this bushfire season more than a million      incidents over time. Despite this, the
     NSW homes are at risk (Sydney Morning         Deloitte projections do not incorporate
     Herald 2014).                                 increased bushfire incident rates
                                                   due to climate change, making them
     The economic, social and environmental
                                                   conservative economic forecasts that
     costs of increasing bushfire activity in
                                                   could be significantly higher if climate
     NSW are potentially immense. In one of
                                                   change was incorporated into the
     the few analyses to consider projected
                                                   projections (Deloitte Access Economics
     costs of bushfires in NSW, Deloitte
                                                   2014). As NSW bushfires increase in
     Access Economics (2014) calculated the
                                                   frequency and intensity, a detailed cost
     potential insured losses and broader
                                                   benefit analyses of bushfire mitigation
     social costs, to forecast total economic
                                                   and adaptation are needed.

     Health costs from particulate matter emitted
     during bushfires in NSW are projected to cost
     $8.2 million per annum.

Climatecouncil.org.au                                                                           Page 19
Be Prepared: Climate change and the NSW bushfire threat

              Figure 12: A hazard reduction burn being conducted by the NSW RFS in Belrose, 2011

              There is increasing interest in how           and environmental amenity, and
              adaptation to an increasingly bushfire-       controlling air pollution near urban
              prone world may reduce vulnerability.         areas (Penman et al. 2011; Williams and
              Current initiatives centre on planning        Bowman 2012; Adams 2013; Altangerel
              and regulations, building designs to          and Kull 2013). The increasing length of
              reduce flammability, burying powerlines       the fire season will reduce the window
              in high risk areas and retrofitting           of opportunity for hazard reduction at
              electricity systems, fuel management,         the same time that the need for hazard
              fire detection and suppression, improved      reduction becomes greater.
              early warning systems, and community
              education (Preston et al. 2009; Buxton et
              al. 2011; O’Neill and Handmer 2012; King
                                                            Australia’s premier
              et al. 2013). Responses to bushfires can      fire and emergency
              be controversial, particularly the practise
              of prescribed burning, where fires are        services agencies
              lit in cool weather to reduce the volume      have recognised
              of fuel. For example, during 2012–13,
              the largest ever hazard reduction burn        the implications of
              was conducted in NSW, with 330 burns
              carried out over 205, 890 ha of national
                                                            climate change for
              parks (NSW Government 2014). Fire             bushfire risk and
              managers are constantly faced with
              the challenge of balancing the need to
                                                            fire‑fighting resources
              reduce risk to life and property whilst       for some time.
              simultaneously conserving biodiversity

 Page 20                                                                   Climatecouncil.org.au
Australia’s premier fire and emergency       will need to increase from approximately
     services agencies have recognised            11,000 in 2010 to 14,000 by 2020 and
     the implications of climate change for       17,000 by 2030 (NIEIR, 2013). When
     bushfire risk and fire-fighting resources    the increased incidence of extreme
     for some time (AFAC, 2009; 2010).            fire weather under a realistic warming
     Longer fire seasons have implications        scenario is also taken into account, a
     for the availability and costs of fire-      further 2000 firefighters will be needed
     fighting equipment that is leased from       by 2020, and 5000 by 2030 (NIEIR, 2013).
     fire fighting agencies in the Northern       Overall, this represents a doubling of
     Hemisphere. As fire seasons in the two       professional firefighter numbers needed
     hemispheres increasingly overlap, such       by 2030, compared to 2010. These
     arrangements may become increasingly         estimates are likely to be conservative
     impractical (Handmer et al., 2012).          because they do not account for the
     Substantially increased resources for fire   potential lengthening of the fire season,
     suppression and control will be required.    in addition to increased fire weather.
     Most importantly, a substantial increase     Further, they do not account for the
     in the number of both professional and       increased pressures on the professional
     volunteer firefighters will be needed.       firefighting services due to declining
     To keep pace with asset growth and           numbers of volunteer firefighters
     population, it has been estimated that       (NIEIR, 2013).
     the number of professional firefighters

     6. This is the
        Critical Decade
     The impacts of climate change are            impacts as the temperature rises. For
     already being observed. Sea levels are       NSW, these impacts include increased
     rising, oceans are becoming more acidic,     fire danger weather and longer bushfire
     and heatwaves have become longer and         seasons. Ensuring that this guardrail is
     hotter. We are now more confident than       not exceeded will prevent even worse
     ever that the emission of greenhouse         impacts from occurring.
     gases by human activities, mainly
                                                  The evidence is clear and compelling.
     carbon dioxide from the combustion
                                                  The trend of increasing global emissions
     of fossil fuels, is the primary cause for
                                                  must be halted within the next few
     the changes in climate over the past
                                                  years and emissions must be trending
     half‑century (IPCC 2013; 2014).
                                                  downwards by 2020. Investment in
     Projections of future climate change and     renewable, clean energy must therefore
     its impacts have convinced nations that      increase rapidly. And, critically, most
     the global average temperature, now          of the known fossil fuel reserves must
     at 0.9°C above the pre-industrial level,     remain in the ground.
     must not be allowed to rise beyond 2°C–
                                                  This is the critical decade to get on
     the so-called ‘2°C guardrail’. Societies
                                                  with the job.
     will have to adapt to even more serious

Climatecouncil.org.au                                                                         Page 21
Be Prepared: Climate change and the NSW bushfire threat

              Appendix A: Cost of
              bushfires in NSW
               Date       Location                     Area/Property Damage         Deaths       Normalised
                                                                                    /Injured     Cost ($2011
                                                                                                 AUD)
               1969–70    Roto & Riverina              280,000 ha.                  1 death      n/a
               1972–73    Kosciusko, Eden,             300,000 ha                   0 deaths     n/a
                          Queanbeyan &
                          Burrinjuck Dam

               1974–75    Far west, Cobar, Balranald   4,500,000 ha. 50,000 stock   6 deaths     n/a
                          & Moolah-Corinya
               1976–77    Blue Mountains &             74,000 ha. 3 houses          0 deaths     n/a
                          Hornsby                      destroyed
               1977–78    Blue Mountains               54,000 ha. 49 buildings      3 deaths     n/a
                                                       destroyed.

               1978–79    Southern Highlands &         > 50,000 ha. 5 houses        0 deaths     n/a
                          South West Slopes            destroyed. Heavy stock
                                                       losses

               1979–80    Duffys Forest, Lucas         > 1,000,000 ha. 28 houses    13 deaths    n/a
                          Heights, Terry Hills,        destroyed. 20 houses
                          Ingleside, Belrose,          damaged.
                          Elanora Heights, Lithgow,
                          Mt Wilson, Mt Tomah &
                          Grose Valley
               November   Waterfall                    n/a                          5 deaths     n/a
               1980
               1982–83    Blue Mountains,              60,000 ha                    3 deaths     n/a
                          Sutherland & Southern
                          NSW
               1984–85    Western Division             3,500,000 ha. 40,000 stock   5 deaths     $179m
               1986       Mt Kaputar National Park     10,000 ha                    0 deaths     n/a
               1987–88    Bethungra, Warurillah/       180,000 ha                   4 deaths.    n/a
                          Yanco, Kosciusko,                                         20 injured
                          Sutherland & Penrith
               1990–91    Baulkham Hills, Gosford,     14 houses destroyed          2 deaths     $54m
                          Wyong & Lake Macquarie

               1993–94    North coast, Hunter,         > 800,000 ha. 206 houses     4 deaths     $215m
                          South coast, Blue            destroyed.
                          Mountains & Sydney

 Page 22                                                                            Climatecouncil.org.au
Date         Location                    Area/Property Damage      Deaths        Normalised
                                                                         /Injured      Cost ($2011
                                                                                       AUD)
      1997–98      Burragorang, Pilliga,       > 500,000 ha. 10 houses   4 deaths      $8m
                   Hawkesbury, Hunter,         destroyed
                   Shoalhaven, Central
                   Coast & Menai
      June 2000    Mt Ku-ring-gai              n/a                       4 deaths. 3   n/a
                                                                         injured
      2001–02      44 LGAs in Greater          744,000 ha. 109 houses    0 deaths      $131m
                   Sydney, Hunter, North       destroyed. 40 houses
                   Coast, Mid North Coast,     damaged.
                   Northern
                                               6,000 stock
                   Tablelands & Central
                   Tablelands
      2002–03      81 LGAs in Greater          1,464,000 ha. 86 houses   3 deaths      $43m (October
                   Sydney, Hunter,             destroyed. 11 houses                    2002 fires)
                   North Coast, Northern       damaged.
                   Tablelands,
                                               3,400 stock.
                   Northern Rivers, north-
                   west slopes, north-
                   west plains, Central
                   Tablelands, Southern
                   Tablelands, Illawarra &
                   South Coast
      January      Coonabarabran, Yass,        650,000 ha. 57 houses     0 deaths. 1   n/a
      2013         Cooma, Shoalhaven,          destroyed. 22 houses      injured
                   Jugiong & Gundaroo          damaged. 14,500 stock.

      October      Blue Mountains,             118,000 ha. 222 houses    2 deaths      $183.4m (early
      2013         Port Stephens, Lake         destroyed. 168 houses                   figures)
                   Munmorah, Hunter,           damaged
                   Hawkesbury,
                   Central Coast & Southern
                   Highlands

     Source: NSW Parliamentary Research Service (PRS) (2014)

Climatecouncil.org.au                                                                                   Page 23
Be Prepared: Climate change and the NSW bushfire threat

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