BE PREPARED: CLIMATE CHANGE AND THE VICTORIAN BUSHFIRE THREAT
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BE PREPARED: CLIMATE CHANGE AND THE VICTORIAN BUSHFIRE THREAT The Climate Council is an independent, crowd-funded organisation providing quality information on climate change to the Australian public. CLIMATECOUNCIL.ORG.AU
Authorship:
Professor Lesley Hughes
Published by the Climate Council of Australia Limited
ISBN: 978-0-9941866-5-2 (print)
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Be Prepared: Climate Change and the Victorian bushfire threat
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Professor Lesley Hughes Climate Councillor
Professor Lesley Hughes
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Introduction Residents of Victoria have experienced This report first describes the the serious consequences of bushfires. background context of fire and its Although Victoria comprises only history in Victoria. We then outline the 3% of Australia’s land mass, more link between bushfires and climate than half of all known fatalities due change, before considering how bushfire to bushfires have occurred in Victoria, danger weather is increasing in Victoria and the state has sustained around and what this means for the immediate 50% of the economic damage. future. We explore the impacts of fire Australians have always lived with on people, property, water supply and fire and its consequences, but climate biodiversity, before considering the change is increasing fire danger weather future influence of climate change and thus the risk of fires. It is time to on bushfires, and the implications think very seriously about the risks for Victorian fire managers, planners that future fires will pose. and emergency services. CLIMATECOUNCIL.ORG.AU Page 1
BE PREPARED: CLIMATE CHANGE AND THE
VICTORIAN BUSHFIRE THREAT
Key Findings
1. Climate change is increasing ›› Victoria’s 2014–15 bushfire season
the risk of bushfires in Victoria outlook has been upgraded
and lengthening the fire from an “above normal” fire
season. season to a “major” fire season
following record October warmth
›› Extreme fire weather has increased
and expected ongoing hot, dry
over the last 30 years in Victoria.
conditions.
The fire season in Victoria is
starting earlier and lasting longer. 3. Recent severe fires in Victoria
Fire weather has been extending have been influenced by
into October and into March. record hot, dry conditions.
›› Australia is a fire prone country ›› The 2009 Black Saturday fires in
and Victoria has always Victoria were preceded by a record
experienced bushfires. Today breaking decade-long drought
climate change is making hot days with a string of record hot years,
hotter, and heatwaves longer and coupled with a severe heatwave
more frequent, with increasing in the preceding week.
drought conditions in Australia’s
›› In the lead up to the bushfires
southeast.
on Saturday 7th 2009, maximum
›› Record breaking heat and hotter temperatures were up to 23°C
weather over the long term in above the February average
Victoria has worsened fire weather in Victoria and record high
and contributed to an increase temperatures for February were
in the frequency and severity set in over 87% of the state.
of bushfires.
4. In Victoria the economic
2. Victoria is the state most cost of bushfires, including
affected by bushfires and is loss of life, livelihoods,
on the frontline of increasing property damage and
bushfire risk. emergency services
›› Over half of known fatalities due responses, is very high.
to bushfires in Australia have
›› The total economic costs of
occurred in Victoria.
bushfires in Victoria in 2014
›› Victoria has sustained around are projected to be more than
50% of the economic damage from $172 million. By around the middle
bushfires despite covering only of the century these costs will
3% of Australia. more than double.
Page 2 CLIMATECOUNCIL.ORG.AU
›› These projections do not ›› Increasing severity, frequency and
incorporate increased bushfire the lengthening fire season will
incident rates due to climate strain Victoria’s existing resources
change and so could potentially for fighting and managing fires.
be much higher.
›› By 2030, it has been estimated
›› Livestock losses were estimated that the number of professional
at 13,000 in the 2003 Alpine fires firefighters in Victoria will need to
in Victoria, 65,000 in the 2005–6 approximately double (compared to
Grampians fire and more than 2010) to keep pace with increased
11,000 in the Black Saturday fires. population, asset value, and fire
danger weather.
5. In the future, Victoria is
very likely to experience an ›› Australia must cut its emissions
increased number of days rapidly and deeply to join global
with extreme fire danger. efforts to stabilise the world’s
Communities, emergency climate and to reduce the risk
services and health services of even more extreme events,
across Victoria must prepare. including bushfires.
›› Fire severity and intensity is
expected to increase substantially
in coming decades in Victoria.
The fire season will continue to
lengthen, further reducing the
opportunities for safe hazard
reduction burning.
CLIMATECOUNCIL.ORG.AU Page 3
BE PREPARED: CLIMATE CHANGE AND THE
VICTORIAN BUSHFIRE THREAT
1. The nature of bushfires
Fire has been a feature of the Australian The unprecedented ferocity of the
environment for at least 65 million years 2009 Black Saturday bushfires in Victoria
(Cary et al. 2012). Human management of saw a new ‘catastrophic’ category added
fires also has a long history, starting with to the FFDI for events exceeding the
fire use by indigenous Australians (“fire- existing scale.
stick farming”) up to 60,000 years ago.
The concept of “fire regimes” is
Between 3% and 10% of Australia’s land
important for understanding the
area burns every year (Western Australian
nature of bushfires in Australia, and
Land Information Authority 2013).
for assessing changes in fire behaviour
In Australia, the Forest Fire Danger caused by both human and climatic
Index (FFDI) is used to measure the factors (Figure 2). A fire regime describes
degree of risk of fire in our forests a recurrent pattern of fire, with the most
(Luke and Macarthur 1978). The important characteristics being the
Bureau of Meteorology (BoM) and fire frequency, intensity, and seasonality
management agencies use the FFDI of the fire. Significant changes in any
to assess fire risk and issue warnings. of these features of a fire regime can
The index was originally designed on a have a very important influence on
scale from 0 to 100, with fires between its ecological and economic impacts
75 and 100 considered ‘extreme’. (Williams et al. 2009).
Figure 1: Trees burn in Bullumwaal, Victoria
Page 4 CLIMATECOUNCIL.ORG.AU
01
THE NATURE OF BUSHFIRES IN AUSTRALIA
Figure 4. Main factors affecting bushfires
Main factors 3 | People
Fires may be deliberately started
(arson) or be started by accident
affecting (e.g. by powerline fault). Human
activities can also reduce fire,
either by direct suppression
bushfires or by reducing fuel load by
prescribed burning
1 | Ignition
Fires can be started
by lightning or
people, either
deliberately or
accidentally
2 | Fuel
Fires need fuel of
sufficient quantity &
dryness. A wet year creates
favourable conditions
for vegetation growth. If 4 | Weather
this is followed by a dry Fires are more likely to spread on hot, dry,
season or year, fires are windy days. Hot weather also dries out fuel,
more likely to spread and favouring fire spread and intensity
become intense
Figure 2: Main factors affecting bushfires
CLIMATECOUNCIL.ORG.AU Page 6
CLIMATECOUNCIL.ORG.AU Page 5
BE PREPARED: CLIMATE CHANGE AND THE
VICTORIAN BUSHFIRE THREAT
Fire is a complex process that is very between rainfall and fuel is complex.
variable in space and time. A fire Wet seasons can lead to increased
needs to be started (ignition), it needs plant growth and therefore increase
something to burn (fuel) and it needs fuel buildup in the months or years
conditions that are conducive to its before a fire is ignited (Bradstock et
spread (weather and topography) al. 2009). Warmer temperatures and
(see Figure 2). Fire activity is strongly low rainfall in the period immediately
influenced by weather, fuel, terrain, preceding an ignition, however,
ignition agents and people. The most can lead to drier vegetation and
important aspects of weather that soil, making the existing fuel more
affect fire and fuels are temperature, flammable. Warmer temperatures
precipitation, wind and humidity. Once can also be associated with a higher
a fire is ignited, very hot days with low incidence of lightning activity (Jayaratne
humidity and high winds are conducive and Kuleshov, 2006), increasing the
to its spread. The type, amount, and risk of ignition. In many regions
moisture level of fuel available are also local weather conditions are the most
critical determinants of fire behaviour, important influence on fire activity
extent and intensity. The relationship (Climate Council 2014a).
“The most important aspects of weather
that affect fire and fuels are temperature,
precipitation, wind and humidity”.
As fire weather conditions become more People are also a very important
severe, fuel moisture content declines, component of the fire equation. Many
making the fuel more flammable. By fires are either deliberately or accidentally
contrast, in arid regions, vegetation lit, and in places where population
and thus fuel in most years is sparsely density is high, the probability of a
distributed and fires, if ignited, rarely fire igniting increases close to roads
spread far. In Australia’s southeast, fires and settlements (Willis 2005; Penman
are common in the heathlands and dry et al. 2013). Some of Australia’s most
sclerophyll forests, such as the mountain catastrophic bushfires have been ignited
ash forests in Victoria, typically occurring by powerline faults. But people also play
about every 5 to 30 years, with spring and an important role in reducing fire risk,
summer being peak fire season (Clarke et by vegetation management including
al. 2011; Bradstock et al. 2012). prescribed burning to reduce fuel
Page 6 CLIMATECOUNCIL.ORG.AU
Mildura
Swan Hill
Gannawarra Wodonga
Buloke
Hindmarsh Moira Indigo
Campaspe
Loddon Greater
Shepparton Towong
Wangaratta
West Northern Benalla
Wimmera Grampians
CLIMATECOUNCIL.ORG.AU
Horsham Bendigo Strathbogie Alpine
Pyrenees Central Mount Mansfield
Goldfields Alexander Mitchell
Goroke
Southern Macedon East Gippsland
Grampians Ararat Ranges
Ballarat
Gisborne
Grampians Moorabool Wellington
Glenelg
Ranges
Golden Plains Baw Baw
Hamilton
Dunkled Moyne Skipton Erica
Beaumaris
Surf Geelong Traralgon
Derrinallum
Coast Morwell
Colac-Otway
South
Gippsland
Melbourne
Warrnambool
Birregurra Yallourn
Otway Ranges
1939 Widespread across Victoria including; 2003 North East and Gippsland
Warburton, Erica, Rubicon, Dromana, Manfield,
the Otway ranges and the Grampian Ranges. 2006 Grampian ranges
1944 Central and western districts, Morwell, Yallourn 2006–07 Great divide complex
1977 Western Districts January 2009 Delburn
1983 Victoria and South Australia including; February 2009 Churchill, Kilmore and Murrundindi,
Dandenong Ranges east of Melbourne, Vectis (Horsham), Coleraine, Weerite, Redesdale,
Macedon areas northwest of Melbourne Harkaway, Upper Ferntree Gully, Maiden Gully /
Eaglehawk, Lynbrook / Narre Warren, Beechworth
1997 Dandenong ranges, Creswick, Heathcote,
Teddywaddy, Gough’s Bay
Source: CFA 2012
Figure 3: Ten major bushfires in VIC that have damaged homes, property, land and resulted in loss of life since 1939
Page 7
BE PREPARED: CLIMATE CHANGE AND THE
VICTORIAN BUSHFIRE THREAT
load and conducting fire suppression state (Haynes et al. 2010). Significant
activities. Interventions such as total bushfires in Victoria’s recent history
fire ban days also play a pivotal role in that have damaged property and
reducing ignitions under dangerous fire resulted in loss of life include the
conditions (Climate Council 2014a). Ash Wednesday and Black Saturday
Victoria is no stranger to bushfires. The fires (see Figure 3 and Table 2).
state has been affected by bushfires Ash Wednesday occurred in February
throughout its history (see Figure 3). A 1983 in Victoria and South Australia.
study of significant Australian bushfires The fires claimed a total of 75 lives
from 1900–2008 found that over half (47 in Victoria, 28 in South Australia)
of all known fatalities due to bushfires and over 2,300 homes were destroyed
in Australia have occurred in Victoria (BoM 2011). The Black Saturday bushfires
(296 deaths). Extreme fires have also occurred in February 2009, killing
destroyed and damaged property more 173 people and destroying over 2000
frequently in Victoria than in any other homes (CFA 2012).
Page 8 CLIMATECOUNCIL.ORG.AU2. What is the link
between bushfires
and climate change?
Figure 4: Aftermath of the Black Saturday bushfires, Victoria
A fire needs to be started (ignition), The role of climate change in ignition
it needs something to burn (fuel) and is likely to be relatively small compared
it needs conditions that are conducive to the fuel and weather, but may still
to its spread (weather) (Section 1). be significant. For example, lightning
Climate change can affect all of these accounts for about 25% of the ignitions
factors in both straightforward and in Victoria (Attiwill and Adams 2011) and
more complex ways. the incidence of lightning is sensitive
CLIMATECOUNCIL.ORG.AU Page 9BE PREPARED: CLIMATE CHANGE AND THE
VICTORIAN BUSHFIRE THREAT
to weather conditions, including atmosphere – and the incidence of very
temperature (Jayaratne and Kuleshov hot days. Put simply, climate change is
2006). Climate change can also affect increasing the frequency and severity
fuel. For example, a lack of rainfall can of very hot days (IPCC 2012; 2013), and
dry out the soil and vegetation, making is driving up the likelihood of very high
existing fuel more combustible. But fire danger weather (see Section 3). The
whilst climate change can affect ignition Black Saturday fires in Victoria were
and fuel, it is the impact of climate preceded by a decade-long drought with
change on weather that has the most a string of record hot years, coupled
significant influence on fire activity with a severe heatwave in the preceding
(Climate Council 2014a). week. The weather conditions on
Very hot, dry and windy days create February 7th broke temperature records,
very high bushfire risk. The most direct with maximum temperatures up to
link between bushfires and climate 23°C above the February average in
change therefore comes from the Victoria and record high temperatures
relationship between the long-term for February set in over 87% of the state
trend towards a warmer climate due to (BoM 2009a; BoM 2009b). In addition the
increasing greenhouse gas emissions FFDI ranged from 120 to 190, the highest
– the increasing amount of heat in the vales ever recorded (Karoly 2009).
Page 10 CLIMATECOUNCIL.ORG.AUFigure 5: Climate change and the bushfire threat in Victoria CLIMATECOUNCIL.ORG.AU Page 11
BE PREPARED: CLIMATE CHANGE AND THE
VICTORIAN BUSHFIRE THREAT
It is important to note that climate climate change is the wrong question.
change is already increasing the All extreme weather events are now
intensity and frequency of many being influenced by climate change
extreme events such as very hot days because they are occurring in a climate
and droughts. The strength of trends system that is hotter and moister than
and the confidence in their attribution, it was 50 years ago (Trenberth 2012).
however, varies between regions and The latest IPCC report confirms with
between different types of event (IPCC high confidence (95% likelihood) that
2012; 2013; 2014). Extreme weather climate change is expected to increase
events, like bushfires, are influenced by the number of days with very high and
a number of different factors. That’s why extreme fire weather, particularly in
asking if a weather event is “caused” by southern Australia (IPCC 2014).
“Climate change is expected to increase
the number of days with very high and
extreme fire weather, particularly in
southern Australia”.
Page 12 CLIMATECOUNCIL.ORG.AU3. Observations of
changing bushfire danger
weather in Victoria
Increasing hot days, heatwaves and For example, in Melbourne from
rainfall deficiencies in Victoria are 1951–2011, the average intensity of
driving up the likelihood of very high heatwaves has increased by 1.5°C
fire danger weather in the state. and the average intensity of the peak
While hot weather has always occurred day during a heatwave has increased
in Australia’s southeast, it has become by 2°C (Climate Council 2014c). This
more common and severe over the past has implications for bushfire danger
few decades, including in Victoria (see weather; for example the heatwave
Figure 7). The southeast of Australia prior to the 2009 Black Saturday
has experienced significant warming bushfires was notable both for its
during the last 50 years (Timbal et peak intensity and duration, with
al. 2012). 2013 was the hottest year maximum temperatures up to 23°C
on record and during the summer of above the February average in Victoria
2013–14 Victoria experienced its hottest (BoM 2009a; BoM 2009b). The IPCC
four days on record from the 14–17th projects with virtual certainty that
of January. Melbourne set a record for warming in Australia will continue
four consecutive days at 41°C and above, throughout the 21st century and
and two nights in a row at 27°C or above predicts with high confidence that
(BoM 2014a; Climate Council 2014b). bushfire danger weather will increase
Heatwaves in Victoria are increasing in most of southern Australia,
in frequency, intensity and duration. including Victoria (IPCC 2014).
Figure 6: Cars destroyed in the Black Saturday bushfires, Victoria
CLIMATECOUNCIL.ORG.AU Page 13BE PREPARED: CLIMATE CHANGE AND THE
VICTORIAN BUSHFIRE THREAT
Figure 7: Victoria’s increasing heat (Australian Bureau of Meteorology). Blue bars indicate
years where annual temperatures were below average, and red bars indicate years of above
average temperatures.
Page 14 CLIMATECOUNCIL.ORG.AU“Rainfall has declined in southeast
Australia over the last 20 years”.
Much of eastern Australia has become 25 percent decline in average rainfall in
drier since the 1970s, with the southeast April and May (CSIRO & BoM 2014). It is
experiencing a drying trend due to very likely that an increased incidence
declines in rainfall combined with of drought in the southeast-coupled
increased temperatures (BoM 2013; with consecutive hot and dry days –
Climate Commission 2013). Since the will in turn result in longer fire seasons
mid-1990s, southeast Australia has and an ever larger number of days of
experienced a 15 percent decline in late extreme fire danger in coming decades
autumn and early winter rainfall and a (e.g. Clarke et al. 2011; 2013).
“Bushfires continue to increase in
number, burn for longer and affect
larger areas of land”.
The concept of a ‘normal’ bushfire extreme fire weather since the 1970s,
season is rapidly changing as bushfires as indicated by changes in the FFDI.
continue to increase in number, burn The FFDI increased significantly at
for longer and affect larger areas of land 16 of 38 weather stations across
(Bushfire and Natural Hazards CRC Australia between 1973 and 2010,
2014a). The influence of hotter, drier with none of the stations recording a
weather conditions on the likelihood significant decrease (Clarke et al. 2013).
of bushfire spread in Victoria is These changes have been most marked
captured by changes in the Forest Fire in spring, indicating a lengthening fire
Danger Index (FFDI), an indicator of season across southern Australia, with
extreme fire weather. Some regions of fire weather extending into October
Australia, especially in the south and and March. The lengthening fire
southeast (Victoria, South Australia season means that opportunities for
and New South Wales) have already fuel reduction burning are decreasing
experienced a significant increase in (Matthews et al. 2012).
CLIMATECOUNCIL.ORG.AU Page 15BE PREPARED: CLIMATE CHANGE AND THE
VICTORIAN BUSHFIRE THREAT
Victoria is currently experiencing season in different states. For the first
persistent rainfall deficiencies, with time this outlook has been reissued
severe deficiencies (lowest 5% of records) (November 2014) due to unseasonably
emerging in parts of Victoria over the hot, dry weather in Australia’s southeast
last 11-months. Below average October (See Figure 8). Victoria’s 2014–15 bushfire
rainfall across much of eastern Australia season outlook has been upgraded
has also worsened rainfall deficiencies from an above normal fire season
over the last four months in northern to a major fire season. All Victorian
Victoria (BoM 2014b). districts, except the Mallee and East
The Australia Seasonal Bushfire Outlook Gippsland, may expect above normal
for 2014–15, issued in September 2014, fire potential (Bushfire and Natural
anticipates the severity of the bushfire Hazards CRC 2014b).
Figure 8: The Updated Australia Seasonal Bushfire Outlook (Bushfire and Natural Hazards
CRC 2014b)
Page 16 CLIMATECOUNCIL.ORG.AU4. Future projections of
fire activity in southeast
Australia
Research aimed at understanding future actual fire activity in southeast and
fire activity in Australia’s southeast central Australia (Williams and Karoly
has a long history (Table 1). While the 1999; Verdon et al. 2004; Lucas 2005;
detailed results of these studies vary due Harris et al. 2013). Significant changes
to the use of different global circulation have occurred in the nature of ENSO
models (GCMs) and different emission since the 1970s, with the phenomenon
scenarios, their collective conclusion is being more active and intense during
clear – weather conditions conducive the 1979–2009 period than at any other
to fire in the southeast and southwest of time in the past 600 years (Aiken et al.
the continent are becoming increasingly 2013). It is likely that climate change is
frequent and this trend will continue. and will continue to influence ENSO
From the 1980s scientist’s projections behaviour, although there is currently
have demonstrated that bushfire no consensus on the nature, extent
conditions would be elevated as global or direction of this influence. Recent
temperatures increased from rising projections suggest increases in El
greenhouse gases. Niño-driven drying in the western
Future changes in the El Niño-Southern Pacific Ocean by mid-to late 21st century
Oscillation (ENSO) phenomenon are (Power et al. 2013); such a change would
also likely to have an influence on increase the incidence of heat and
fire activity. El Niño events worsen drought, and potentially increase fire
fire weather conditions and increase activity in eastern Australia.
CLIMATECOUNCIL.ORG.AU Page 17BE PREPARED: CLIMATE CHANGE AND THE
VICTORIAN BUSHFIRE THREAT
SUMMARY OF PROJECTIONS FROM MODELLING STUDIES INVESTIGATING CHANGES
IN FIRE RISK IN SOUTHEAST AUSTRALIA.
Study Projections
Beer et al. (1988) 10%–20% increase in FFDI in southeast Australia
Beer and Williams (1995) Increase in FFDI with doubling of atmospheric CO2, commonly >10%
across most of continent, especially in the southeast, with a few small areas
showing decreases
Williams et al. (2001) General trend towards decreasing frequency of low and moderate fire danger
rating days, but an increasing frequency of very high and in some cases
extreme fire danger days
Hennessy (2007) Potential increase of very high and extreme FFDI days 4%–25% by 2020,
15%–70% by 2050
Lucas et al. (2007) Increases in annual FFDI of up to 30% by 2050 over historical levels in
southeast Australia and up to a trebling in the number of days per year
where the uppermost values of the index are exceeded. The largest changes
projected to occur in the arid and semi-arid interior of NSW and northern
Victoria.
Hasson et al. (2009) Analysed likelihood of increase in incidence of synoptic weather pattern
in southeast Australia known to be associated with extreme fire events.
Projected potential frequency of extreme events to increase from around
1 event every 2 years during the late 20th century to around 1 event per year
in the middle of the 21st century, and to around 1 to 2 events per year by the
end of the 21st century
Clarke et al. (2011) FFDI projected to decrease or show little change in the tropical northeast.
In the southeast, FFDI projected to increase strongly by end of the 21 st
century, with the fire season extending in length and starting earlier
Matthews et al. (2012) Warming and drying climate projected to produce drier, more flammable
fuel, and to increase rate of fire spread
Jones et al. (2013) Projected increases in FFDI for Melbourne area
Table 1: Summary of projections from modelling studies investigating changes in fire risk
in southeast Australia.
Page 18 CLIMATECOUNCIL.ORG.AU5. Impacts of Bushfires
in Victoria
Bushfires have had a very (296 deaths) (Haynes et al. 2010). The
wide range of human and Black Saturday bushfires in Victoria in
environmental impacts, including February 2009 accounted for 173 deaths,
loss of life and severe health ranking as one of the world’s ten most
effects, damage to property, deadly recorded bushfires (Teague
devastation of communities et al. 2010). A large proportion of the
and effects on water and natural fatalities (44%) were children younger
ecosystems (Stephenson 2010). than 12 years old, people over 70 years
and those with either chronic or acute
disabilities (O’Neill and Handmer 2012).
5.1 Health Impacts In addition to fatalities, bushfire
smoke can seriously affect health.
Smoke contains not only respiratory
“From 1900–2008 irritants, but also inflammatory
and cancer‑causing chemicals
over half of all known (Bernstein and Rice 2013). Smoke can
be transported in the atmosphere
bushfire fatalities in for hundreds or even thousands of
kilometres from the fire front, exposing
Australia occurred large populations to its impacts
(Spracklen et al. 2009; Dennekamp
in Victoria”. and Abramson 2011; Bernstein and
Rice 2013). For example in Melbourne,
cardiac arrests outside hospitals increase
by almost 50% on bushfire smoke-
Populations in Victoria are at risk from
affected days (Dennekamp et al. 2011).
the health impacts of bushfires, which
Firefighters are also faced with higher
have contributed to physical and mental
risks to their long-term health with an
illness as well as death.
elevated chance of developing a variety
Tragically, in Australia bushfires have of cancers (Youakim 2006). The impacts
accounted for more than 800 deaths of bushfire smoke in the community are
since 1850 (Cameron et al. 2009; King also uneven, with the elderly, infants and
et al. 2013), with more than half of the those with chronic heart or lung diseases
deaths (1900–2008) occurring in Victoria at higher risk (Morgan et al. 2010).
CLIMATECOUNCIL.ORG.AU Page 19BE PREPARED: CLIMATE CHANGE AND THE
VICTORIAN BUSHFIRE THREAT
In addition to physical health impacts, major depressive episodes and increased
the trauma and stress of experiencing a alcohol use (Bryant et al. 2014). A study
bushfire can also increase depression, of over 1500 people who experienced
anxiety, and other mental health issues, losses in the 1983 Ash Wednesday
both in the immediate aftermath of bushfires found that after 12 months,
the trauma and for months or years 42% were suffering a decline in mental
afterwards (McFarlane and Raphael 1984; health (“psychiatric morbidity”)
Sim 2002; Whittaker et al. 2012). For (McFarlane et al. 1997). PTSD, major
example, a study conducted 3–4 years depression, anxiety and suicide can also
after the Black Saturday bushfires in manifest among firefighters, sometimes
Victoria found that some members of only becoming evident many months
the affected community developed after an extreme event (McFarlane 1988;
Post Traumatic Stress Disorder (PTSD), Cook et al. 2013).
Figure 9: Bushfire smoke blankets Melbourne in 2006
Page 20 CLIMATECOUNCIL.ORG.AU5.2 Economic Costs
The economic cost of bushfires – reaching $378 million (Deloitte Access
including loss of life, livelihoods, Economics 2014). These estimates take
property damage and emergency into account increases in the number
services responses – is very high. of households, growth in the value
The total economic cost of bushfires, a of housing stock, population growth
measure that includes insured losses as and increasing infrastructure density.
well as broader social costs, is estimated These estimates do not, however,
to be $337 million per year in Australia include the potential for climate
(2011$), a figure that is expected to reach change to increase bushfire frequency
$800 million by around 2050 (Deloitte or intensity, so must be considered
Access Economics 2014). The total conservative. Even though Victoria
economic costs of bushfires in Victoria comprises only 3% of the country’s
for 2014 are projected to be $172 million landmass, it has sustained around
(2011$). By about mid century these 50% of the economic damage from
costs will more than double, potentially bushfires (Buxton et al. 2011).
“Even though Victoria comprises only
3% of the country’s landmass, it has
sustained around 50% of the economic
damage from bushfires”.
CLIMATECOUNCIL.ORG.AU Page 21BE PREPARED: CLIMATE CHANGE AND THE
VICTORIAN BUSHFIRE THREAT
RECORDED LOSSES FROM MAJOR BUSHFIRE EVENTS IN VICTORIA SINCE 1939
Date FIRE Location LOSSES (including Deaths SIGNIFICANT
EVENT residential property, INSURED
stock) LOSSES
(normalised to
2011 values)1
1939 Black Friday Widespread across 1000+ homes 71 n/a
Victoria including;
(ABS 2004; AIC 2004) (AIC 2004;
Warburton,
Reuters 2009)
Erica, Rubicon,
Dromana,
Manfield, the
Otway ranges and
the Grampian
Ranges.
1977 Victoria, Western >100 homes 4 $ 101 million
Districts
(CFA 2012) (CFA 2012) (ICA 2013)
1983 Ash Victoria and >2,300 homes 75 $1.796 billion
South Australia
Wednesday including;
(Ramsay et al. 1996; AIC (AIC 2004; (ICA 2013)
2004; McAeney et al 2009) Reuters 2009)
Dandenong
Ranges east
of Melbourne, >200,000 stock
Macedon areas (Ramsay et al. 1996; AIC
northwest of 2004)
Melbourne
2003 Gippsland Victoria, North >41 homes 0 $24 million
East and
Fires (CFA 2012) (ICA 2013)
Gippsland fires >10,000 livestock
(CFA 2012)
2006 Grampians Victoria, > 40 homes 2 $28 million
Grampian ranges
Fires (CFA 2012) (ICA 2013)
>65,000 stock
(CFA 2012)
2009 Black Churchill, Kilmore >2000 houses 173 $ 1.266
Saturday
and Murrundindi,
(CFA 2012; Stephenson et (Teague et al. billion
Vectis (Horsham),
al. 2013) 2010; Stephenson (ICA 2013)
Coleraine, Weerite,
et al 2013)
Redesdale,
Harkaway, Upper 8000–11,800
Ferntree Gully, stock
Maiden Gully (Teague et al 2010;
/ Eaglehawk, Stephenson et al. 2013)
Lynbrook /
Narre Warren,
Beechworth
Table 2: Recorded losses from major 1. I nsured losses shown have been normalized to 2011 values
bushfire events in Victoria since 1939. (taking inflation and wealth changes into account).
Page 22 CLIMATECOUNCIL.ORG.AUBushfires can cause direct damage A study by Keating and Handmer
to properties; for example, the Black (2013) provides one of the few full
Saturday bushfires destroyed over 2000 economic assessments of bushfire
homes (see Table 2). Infrastructure impacts on primary industry. This
such as powerlines and roads can study conservatively estimated that
also be damaged. In the 2003 alpine bushfires directly cost the Victorian
fires in Victoria, for example, about agricultural industry around $42 million
4,500 km of roads were damaged and per year. When business disruption
local businesses reported a 50–100% was included more broadly, the costs
economic downturn in the fire to the entire Victorian economy
aftermath (Stephenson 2010). from this impact were estimated to
Bushfires have significant impacts in be $92 million per year. A similar
farming areas. For example, livestock analysis for the Victorian timber
losses were estimated at 13,000 in the industry estimated direct costs at
2003 Alpine fires in Victoria, 65,000 in $74 million per year, and state-wide
the 2005–6 Grampians fire and more costs at $185 million (Keating and
than 11,000 in the Black Saturday fires Handmer 2013). In the future, with no
(Stephenson 2010; Teague et al. 2010). adaptive change, increased damage
Stock that survives the initial bushfires to the agricultural industry in Victoria
can face starvation in the post-fire by 2050 could add $1.4 billion (or
period, as well as threats from predators $46.6 million per year) to the existing
due to the destruction of fences around costs of $92 million per year (Keating
properties (Stephenson 2010). Over and Handmer 2013). Similarly, the
8,000 km of fences were lost in the Black additional cost of bushfires to the
Saturday fires (Stephenson 2010). Smoke Victorian timber industry is estimated
damage can also taint fruit and vegetable to be $2.85 billion ($96.2 million per year),
crops, with wine grapes particularly over and above the present day estimate
susceptible (Stephenson 2010). of $185 million per year.
“Bushfires directly cost the Victorian
agricultural industry around $42 million
per year”.
CLIMATECOUNCIL.ORG.AU Page 23BE PREPARED: CLIMATE CHANGE AND THE
VICTORIAN BUSHFIRE THREAT
It is important to note that these costs for volunteer fire fighters,
economic losses do not account for fixed costs for bushfire fighting
the full range of costs associated with services, government contributions
bushfires – few attempts have been for rebuilding and compensation,
made to account for loss of life, social impacts on health, and ecosystem
disruption and trauma, opportunity services (King et al. 2013).
Figure 10: A firefighter observes the wreckage of a home in Kinglake, Victoria
Page 24 CLIMATECOUNCIL.ORG.AU5.3 Environmental Impacts
Fire can affect the quality and quantity of water in catchments and have
significant impacts on ecosystems.
usually uses more water than the mature
5.3.1 IMPACT ON WATER
QUALITY AND QUANTITY trees they have replaced (Langford 1976,
Feikema et al. 2013). Seven years after
Large-scale high intensity fires that
the 2003 fires in the mountain ash
remove vegetation expose topsoils
forests of Victoria, the regrowth was still
to erosion and increased runoff after
using twice the water of adjacent mature
subsequent rainfall (Shakesby et al.
forest (Buckley et al. 2012). This pattern,
2007). This can increase sediment
known as the “Kuczera effect”, can last
and nutrient concentrations in nearby
for several decades after a fire, with water
waterways, potentially making water
supplies unfit for human consumption yields from forested catchments being
(Smith et al. 2011; IPCC 2014). During the reduced by up to 50% (Kuczera 1985;
Black Saturday fires 10 billion litres of Brookhouse et al. 2013). Fires can also
Melbourne’s drinking water was pumped affect water infrastructure; the Black
to safer storage locations because of fears Saturday bushfires in 2009 affected
it would be contaminated (Johnston about 30% of the catchments that
2009). Fire also has longer-term affects supply Melbourne’s drinking water.
on water flow in forested catchments. Melbourne Water estimated the
Immediately after the fire there may post‑fire recovery costs, including
be an increase in water flow. But as water‑monitoring programs, to be
the forests regenerate, the new growth over $2 billion (WRF 2013).
CLIMATECOUNCIL.ORG.AU Page 25BE PREPARED: CLIMATE CHANGE AND THE
VICTORIAN BUSHFIRE THREAT
Figure 11: Bushfire smoke at the Upper Yarra Dam, Victoria.
and disadvantage others. If fires are
5.3.2 IMPACTS ON ECOSYSTEMS
too frequent, plant species can become
Fire is a regular occurrence in many
vulnerable to local extinction as the
Australian ecosystems, and many
supply of seeds in the soil declines.
species have evolved strategies over
Conversely, if the interval between fires
millions of years to not only withstand
is too long, plant species that rely on fire
fire, but to benefit from it (Crisp et al.
for reproduction may be eliminated from
2011; Bowman et al. 2012). Fire does not
“destroy” bushland, as is often reported; an ecological community. Animals are
rather, it acts as a major disturbance also affected by bushfires, for example
with a range of complex impacts on if they are restricted to localised habitats
different species and communities. and cannot move quickly, and/or
Particular fire regimes (especially reproduce slowly, they may be at risk
specific combinations of fire frequency from intense large-scale fires that occur
and intensity) can favour some species at short intervals (Yates et al. 2008).
Page 26 CLIMATECOUNCIL.ORG.AUEcosystems in which the natural fire et al. 2011; Bowman et al. 2013). This
interval is very long (>100 years) can change in vegetation has important
undergo substantial change if the fire flow-on effects for other species,
frequency increases. After successive especially the ~40 vertebrate species that
fires in 2003 and 2006–7 in Victoria, rely on the hollows of 120–150 year old
Acacia shrublands have replaced mountain ash trees for habitat, such as
some mountain and alpine ash forests the endangered Leadbeater’s possum;
because there was insufficient time an estimated 42% of the possum’s
between fires for the ash trees to become habitat was burned in the 2009 bushfires
reproductively mature (Lindenmayer (Lindenmayer 2013) (Figure 12).
Figure 12: The Black Saturday 2009 bushfires affected much of the habitat of the already
endangered Leadbeater’s possum.
CLIMATECOUNCIL.ORG.AU Page 27BE PREPARED: CLIMATE CHANGE AND THE
VICTORIAN BUSHFIRE THREAT
6. Implications of
increasing fire activity
“Melbourne’s rural-urban fringe is among
the most vulnerable in the world to the
bushfire hazard”.
The risk that bushfires pose to people are The increasing population and built
particularly acute in southern Australia, assets, coupled with increasing fire
where large populations live close to danger weather, present significant
highly flammable native vegetation and growing challenges for the state.
that is exposed to frequent severe fire Already fire prone regions are becoming
weather. The population of Victoria more fire prone and risks to lives and
could potentially grow to 10 million property continue to increase in parts
by 2051, with 2.2 million in Victoria’s of Victoria. Hard decisions will have to
regions and 7.8 million in Greater be made about the on-going livability
Melbourne (Victorian Government of those regions, as they become
2014). Melbourne’s rural-urban fringe increasingly dangerous to live in.
is among the most vulnerable in the
world to the bushfire hazard (Buxton et The economic, social and environmental
al. 2011). The population of Melbourne costs of increasing bushfire activity
is continuing to spread, encroaching in Victoria are potentially immense.
into surrounding bushland, increasing As noted in Section 5.2, an analyses
risk to life and property from bushfires. of projected costs of bushfires in
For example, many of the homes Victoria by Deloitte Access Economics
destroyed in Marysville and Kingslake, (2014) forecast that bushfires in Victoria
two communities devastated by the could cost $378 million by about
2009 Victorian bushfires, were either mid‑century (2011$), based only on
surrounded by or located less than population and asset increases, but
10 metres from bushland (Chen and not including increased risk due to
McAneney 2010; Crompton et al. 2010). climate change.
Page 28 CLIMATECOUNCIL.ORG.AU“The economic, social and environmental
costs of increasing bushfire activity in
Victoria are potentially immense”.
There is increasing interest in Adams 2013; Altangerel and Kull 2013). In
how adaptation to an increasingly the wake of the Black Saturday bushfires,
bushfire‑prone world may reduce the Royal Commission recommended
vulnerability. Current initiatives centre treating at least 5% of Victorian
on planning and regulations, building public land per year (and up to 8%) by
designs to reduce flammability, burying prescribed burning (Teague et al. 2010).
powerlines in high risk areas, retrofitting The “5% solution” is being imported
electricity systems, fuel management, to some other states, even though fire
fire detection and suppression, improved ecologists stress that the frequency and
early warning systems, and community amount of prescribed burning required
education (Preston et al. 2009; Buxton to reduce risk varies greatly between
et al. 2011; O’Neill and Handmer 2012; different landscapes (Penman et al.
King et al. 2013). Responses to bushfires 2011; Williams and Bowman 2012). The
can be controversial, particularly the Tasmania Bushfire Inquiry noted that a
practice of prescribed burning, where strategic approach to prescribed burning
fires are lit in cool weather to reduce was “preferable to a quantitative target”
the volume of fuel. Fire managers are (TBI 2013). The prospect of increasing
constantly faced with the challenge of fire risk as the climate warms brings
balancing the need to reduce risk to the prescribed burning issue into even
life and property whilst simultaneously sharper focus. The increasing length of
conserving biodiversity and the fire season will reduce the window
environmental amenity, and controlling of opportunity for hazard reduction at
air pollution near urban areas (Penman the same time as the need for hazard
et al. 2011; Williams and Bowman 2012; reduction becomes greater.
CLIMATECOUNCIL.ORG.AU Page 29BE PREPARED: CLIMATE CHANGE AND THE
VICTORIAN BUSHFIRE THREAT
“Australia’s fire and emergency
services agencies have recognised
the implications of climate change for
bushfire risk and fire-fighting resources
for some time”.
Australia’s fire and emergency increase in the number of both
services agencies have recognised professional and volunteer firefighters
the implications of climate change for will be needed. To keep pace with
bushfire risk and fire-fighting resources asset growth and population, it has
for some time (AFAC 2009; 2010). been estimated that the number of
Longer fire seasons have implications professional firefighters in Victoria
for the availability and costs of fire- will need to increase from approximately
fighting equipment that is leased from 2,400 in 2010 to 3,000 by 2020 and
fire fighting agencies in the Northern 3,700 by 2030. When the increased
Hemisphere. As fire seasons in the two incidence of extreme fire weather
hemispheres increasingly overlap, such under a realistic warming scenario is
arrangements may become increasingly also taken into account, a further 500
impractical (Handmer et al. 2012). firefighters will be needed by 2020, and
Substantially increased resources for 900 by 2030 – this represents an overall
fire suppression and control will be doubling of numbers compared to 2010
required. Most importantly, a significant (NIEIR 2013).
Page 30 CLIMATECOUNCIL.ORG.AU“In Victoria the number of professional firefighters will need to double by 2030, to keep pace with increased population, asset growth, and fire risk from climate change”. Figure 13: The Victorian Country Fire Authority on patrol CLIMATECOUNCIL.ORG.AU Page 31
BE PREPARED: CLIMATE CHANGE AND THE
VICTORIAN BUSHFIRE THREAT
7. This is the Critical
Decade
The impacts of climate change are impacts as the temperature rises. For
already being observed. Sea levels Victoria, these impacts include increased
are rising, oceans are becoming fire danger weather and longer bushfire
more acidic, and heatwaves seasons. Ensuring that this guardrail is
have become longer and hotter. not exceeded will prevent even worse
Greenhouse gases from human impacts from occurring.
activities, particularly the burning The evidence is clear and compelling.
of fossil fuels, is the primary cause The trend of increasing global emissions
for the changes in climate over the must be halted within the next few
past half-century (IPCC 2013; 2014). years and emissions must be trending
downwards by 2020. Investment in
Projections of future climate change
renewable, clean energy must therefore
and its impacts have convinced nations
increase rapidly. And, critically, most
that the global average temperature, now
of the known fossil fuel reserves must
at 0.9°C above the pre-industrial level,
remain in the ground.
must not be allowed to rise beyond 2°C
– the so-called ‘2°C guardrail’. Societies This is the critical decade to get on
will have to adapt to even more serious with the job.
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