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NARGA - The challenge to feed a growing nation November 2010 - National Association of Retail ...
NARGA

The challenge to feed a
growing nation
November 2010
NARGA - The challenge to feed a growing nation November 2010 - National Association of Retail ...
Content
NARGA Chairman’s Analysis                                          5

1. Executive summary                                               9

2. Australian food sustainabity at the crossroads                  11
    2.1 Australian population trends
    2.2 Australian food consumption trends
    2.3 Australian primary production trends
    2.4 Australian processed food production trends
    2.5 Australian food exports and imports trends
    2.6 Food industry sustainability dilemma

3. Australian grocery industry - Context and structure             19
    3.1 An employment perspective on the retail, grocery and
         food industries
    3.2 Retail and grocery sectors - cross industry perspectives
    3.3 Grocery sector - size, shares and stores context

4. Australian food and grocery industry & "paddock to plate"
    context and structure                                          29
    4.1 The "paddock to plate" profiles and value add analysis

5. Appendix                                                        39
    5.1 Study methodology and sources
    5.2 Study terms and definitions
    5.3 Dairy industry case study
    5.4 Private label case study

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NARGA - The challenge to feed a growing nation November 2010 - National Association of Retail ...
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                                                                                                             3
NARGA - The challenge to feed a growing nation November 2010 - National Association of Retail ...
John Cummings
4
NARGA - The challenge to feed a growing nation November 2010 - National Association of Retail ...
NARGA Chairman’s Analysis
There have been many inquiries into aspects of the          and more food and at the same time creating
Australian grocery industry, including the report of:       conditions which will make it difficult for primary
                                                            producers and manufacturers to remain viable.
·the House of Representatives Standing Committee
   on Industry, Science and Technology                      We believe this is being driven by the unparalleled
   (the Reid Committee, 1997),                              hyper-concentration of the grocery retailing
                                                            sector, where two major supermarket chains have
 the report of the Joint Select Committee on the
·                                                          almost 80 per cent of packaged grocery sales. By
 Retailing Sector (the Baird Committee, 1999),              comparison, the two largest grocery retailers in the
                                                            United States (Wal-Mart and Kroger) jointly have 20
 the ACCC’s report to the Senate On prices paid
·
                                                            per cent market share and the top five chains in the
 to suppliers by retailers in the Australian grocery
                                                            United Kingdom have about 80 per cent.
 industry (2002),
                                                            Governments have not to date acknowledged
·the Review of the Competition Provisions of the
                                                            that the level of market concentration in the
   Trade Practices Act (the Dawson inquiry, 2003),
                                                            Australian grocery retailing industry has been
 the Senate Economics References Committee
·                                                          adversely affecting the ability of many Australian
 inquiry into The effectiveness of the Trade Practices      primary producers to survive - the dairy farming
 Act 1974 in protecting small business (2004),              sector is a case in point, as the Senate Economics
                                                            References Committee reported earlier this year -
·the Report of the ACCC inquiry into the                   and processors and manufacturers are being forced
  competitiveness of retail prices for standard             to bulk up through mergers and acquisitions to give
  groceries (2008) and various Senate Economics             themselves some hope of negotiating fair deals with
  Committee inquiries,                                      the major retailing chains.

·most recently the Senate Economics References             These are the types of issues which were
  Committee’s report on dairy pricing (May 2010),           acknowledged as early as 1997 in the Reid
  Milking it for all it’s worth - competition and pricing   Committee’s report Finding a balance: Towards fair
  in the Australian dairy industry.                         trading in Australia. The problems remain today, but
                                                            are more urgent. Piecemeal amendments to the
The frequency of these inquiries suggests that there        Trade Practices Act have been ineffective.
are issues which remain unresolved, issues which
continue to cause problems for Australian primary           The ACCC’s 2008 grocery inquiry report found
producers, processors and manufacturers, retailers          that Woolworths and Coles were only “workably
and consumers.                                              competitive”. We think that was far too bland a
                                                            conclusion: they merely share the market and
This report reviews the entire food and grocery             exert enormous power over their suppliers, their
supply chain from paddock to plate. We believe this         competitors and their customers, not through
has been the first report to gather hard data on the        efficiency or economies of scale, but simply
entire supply chain.                                        because of their dominant position in the market.

The result is a clear picture of an industry facing         There are a number of indications in this report
serious issues: without concerted action by                 suggesting that the retail grocery market may not
government, Australia risks losing its domestic food        be genuinely competitive. These include:
industry as we currently know it.
                                                            • The disparity between volume and value growth
The National Association of Retail Grocers of                  during the last decade (12 per cent versus 42 per
Australia commissioned Accenture Australia to                  cent) that suggests an increase in profit margins
conduct this research because we have grown                    taken at the retail level; (see page 13)
increasingly concerned that the country with the
cleanest paddocks in the world is importing more

                                                                                                                   5
NARGA - The challenge to feed a growing nation November 2010 - National Association of Retail ...
• The margin shift from producer to retailer - in        If these trends continue, substantial parts of
  the dairy sector, retailers take 80 per cent of the     Australia’s domestic food industry are at risk.
  available gross profit, processors 16 per cent and
  farmers four per cent; (page 43)                        There is no simple, single remedy for the problems
                                                          facing the Australian food and grocery industry.
• The high degree of concentration of the retail
   grocery market with Woolworths and Coles               However, it is clear that the market concentration
   identified as having a market share of around 80       of the Australian grocery retailing sector needs to
   per cent between them; (page 27)                       be addressed so that the market dominance of two
                                                          major companies can be reduced over time.
• The fact that Australia has a more stable retail
   growth pattern, less affected by the type of           One way of ameliorating the market power of the
   fluctuations that would be expected as a result of     major chains is the reintroduction of a prohibition
   greater price competition; (page 21)                   on anti-competitive price discrimination - a
                                                          circumstance where suppliers, willingly or unwillingly,
• The evidence of a ‘waterbed effect’ in prices          are obliged to sell product to one (or several)
   paid by independent retailers, of which the            customers at lower prices than are available to
   dairy industry is an example. This results in          other customers, discounts that are unrelated to
   suppliers being forced to charge higher prices         genuine discounts for economies of scale.
   to some customers for some products in order to
   compensate for lower prices being paid by the          However, the advantage gained by anti-
   major chains; private label milk prices offered by     competitive price discrimination at the point of
   the major chains have been offset by significant       supply cannot be recovered by other competitors,
   price increases for cheese, yoghurt and ice cream      even if they accept a lower profit margin. The result
   in the past few years; (page 43)                       is a heavy dampening of competition and, over
                                                          time, further market concentration.
• Growth in the lower quality private label market
   suggesting there is insufficient competitive           When the Trade Practices Act was passed by the
   pressure to maintain product quality (pages 16,        Parliament in 1974 it contained such a prohibition,
   46).                                                   the then section 49, but after a sustained campaign
                                                          by big business, it was repealed in 1995.
The expansion of the major chains’ private label
ranges in recent years has seen an increase in            Interestingly, the campaign by big business began
imported products from low-cost countries. As a           almost immediately after the Trade Practices Act
consequence, Australian primary producers and             1974 was passed and before any cases had been
manufacturers have lost domestic market share.            taken to court. The big business campaign was
                                                          reflected in the recommendations of the Swanson
This report highlights some of the problems which         Committee as early as 1976. The Blunt Committee
are evident in the market:                                repeated the recommendation in 1979. The
                                                          campaign continued until the Hilmer Committee’s
• Food consumption is growing faster than                recommendation of repeal was acted on in 1995.
   population                                             Yet the Trade Practices Commission did not take a
                                                          single case to court from 1974 to 1995.
• Food consumption is growing faster than food
   production                                             It is now extremely clear that the assumption by the
                                                          Hilmer Committee, echoing the Reid Committee
• Food imports are growing faster than food exports
                                                          and many others since - that a prohibition on anti-
• Grocery industry growth has outpaced both gross        competitive price discrimination was unnecessary
   domestic product and overall retail growth in the      because section 46 of the Trade Practices Act
   second half of this decade                             (dealing with misuse of market power) could be
                                                          used to address such conduct - was wrong and
• Grocery prices are growing faster than the             unsupported by any evidence whatsoever.
   consumer price index (and, because they
   constitute a significant part of the CPI, contribute   Again, since the repeal of section 49, the ACCC has
   to increasing the CPI itself).                         never used section 46 of the TPA to test allegations
                                                          of anti-competitive price discrimination in court.

6
NARGA - The challenge to feed a growing nation November 2010 - National Association of Retail ...
That is a matter of record. Yet many small businesses,     Governments need to acknowledge that the threats
particularly in the grocery sector, have also said         to the continued viability of the Australian food
publicly that they cannot buy product at wholesale         industry stem from the hyper-concentration of the
cheaper than the major supermarket chains ask for          retail sector and, as the inquiry reports listed earlier
the identical product at retail. That circumstance         indicate, there has been a long-term failure of the
has nothing to do with economies of scale.                 regulatory framework to address such issues.

We believe the reintroduction of a prohibition on          JOHN CUMMINGS
anti-competitive price discrimination is now critical.     Chairman

Australia and New Zealand are now the only two             National Association of Retail Grocers of Australia
OECD countries without such a prohibition, resulting       November 2010
in a situation where the major supermarket chains,
amongst other big corporations, are able to
demand pricing advantages which suppliers could
not deny them without risking the loss of one or
other of their two largest customers, potentially to
be replaced by imports.

However, without a regulator committed to active
monitoring of industry and application of the
legislation, black letter law is largely irrelevant. The
failure of regulatory commitment was noted as
early as the 1997 report of the Reid Committee and
is evident from the failure of the Trade Practices
Commission or the ACCC to take a single allegation
of anti-competitive price discrimination to court
since 1974, under either section 49 or section 46.

NARGA supports the recent observation by the
Australian Food and Grocery Council that a whole
of government response is needed to resolve the
issues now facing the food industry.

This would allow governments to engage with the
individual sectors in the supply chain, beginning
with the farming sectors which currently seem most
at risk. NARGA believes Australians need and want a
vibrant and secure farming sector.

Processors and manufacturers require continuous
reinvestment in their Australian facilities. Without
such reinvestment, Australian operations of
international companies are also likely to be at risk
and governments need to understand that and
create a climate of confidence for such investment.

Finally, governments need to understand that
the independent grocery retailing sector is the
major source of competition for the major chains.
Independent grocers offering a wide range of
formats and market specialisations are the best
defence for a competitive industry.

                                                                                                                  7
NARGA - The challenge to feed a growing nation November 2010 - National Association of Retail ...
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NARGA - The challenge to feed a growing nation November 2010 - National Association of Retail ...
1. Executive summary
The Australian food and grocery industry is at the                              Structurally, the “paddock to plate” value chain is
cross roads and is in need of a holistic review and                             showing clear trends of consolidation across the
response across the “paddock to plate” value-chain                              board: from farmers through processors through
to forge a path forward.                                                        to the concentrated retail end of the value chain.
                                                                                There is evidence of tension in regards to the
The trends over the last decade paint a picture that                            balance of power within the value chain between
puts the ability of the local industry to support local                         the producers, processors and retailers. The case
consumption in question. The three key trends that                              studies covering the dairy industry and the private
drive this are:                                                                 label category illustrate and expand on this, and
                                                                                the effects it may have on the local industry.
1. Food consumption is growing faster than
    population                                                                  The Dairy case study in particular demonstrates
                                                                                some of tensions in the value chain – where the
2. F ood consumption is growing faster than food
                                                                                drive by the concentrated supermarket sector to
   production (which is in decline)
                                                                                offer lower private label milk to consumers, has
3. Food imports are growing faster than food exports                            had negative effects on the viability of producers
                                                                                and has placed processors into a situation where
Primary production trends are on a decline in                                   “prices of branded products have sometimes been
volume terms overall. The growth of processed                                   increased to offset overall cost increase, both for
and manufactured goods for consumption lags                                     branded and private label products” 1
behind growing local needs. And, although the
retail sector is showing, in contrast, healthy growth,                          What does remain unresolved is the future direction
its key participants are increasingly meeting the                               of the industry as a whole in Australia. Its importance
production gap via imports.                                                     is undeniable. The trends are self-evident. The
                                                                                tension is documented.
There seems to be a paradox at play in the industry
– where Australia has a growing population                                      The way forward, if the current patterns hold true,
and growing per capita consumption, which is                                    indicates further dilution of local capacity at both
contrasted with a decrease in local supply of food                              primary and secondary level, and a corresponding
and grocery products.                                                           increased reliance on imports to meet the
                                                                                consumption-production gap at the retail level. The
The “paddock to plate” value of the food and                                    question remains whether this will be in the best long
grocery industry to Australia is significant. It is                             term interests for Australia, for Australian industry
estimated that it generates $209 billion in sales. This                         and for Australian consumers.
makes up more that 20 per cent of Australian GDP. It
employs around 910,000 Australians which is well in
excess of 411,000 workers linked to the grocery retail
portion of the value chain. It also contributed 11.5
per cent of the total value of Australian exports.

1. Report from the Senate Economics References Committee, “Milking it for all its’ worth”, May 2010.

                                                                                                                                      9
NARGA - The challenge to feed a growing nation November 2010 - National Association of Retail ...
10
2. Australian food sustainabity at
the crossroads
The current, wide-ranging debate that focuses on                             Food Consumption is growing faster than
sustainability of “big” vs. “small” Australia has a                          Population.
parallel in the local food industry. The trends over                         Whereas population in Australia has increased by 11
the last decade potentially signal the fact that we                          per cent over the last decade, our ‘per capita’ food
are facing a significant tension point in regards to                         consumption value and volumes increased by 58
long term sustainability of local food production                            per cent and 25 per cent respectively.
that is able to effectively satisfy our consumption
patterns.
                                                                             Food Consumption is growing faster than
There are three linked trends that, once extended                            Production.
into a forecast, point to this:                                              Although food production has increased by 21
                                                                             per cent in value terms since 2000, the volume
1. Food consumption is growing faster than                                  of food production at primary level has actually
    population                                                               decreased by 11 per cent since 2000. Both of these
                                                                             are well below the pace of growth of population or
2. F ood consumption is growing faster than food
                                                                             consumption.
   production (which is in decline)
                                                                             It is evident that the current trends, if allowed
3. Food imports are growing faster than food exports
                                                                             to continue unabated, may create significant
                                                                             challenges in regards to the feasibility of local
Fig 1. Australia - Food Supply and Demand Trends and                         industry effectively supporting the domestic
Outlook                                                                      demand, as well as creating a potential flow-on
                                                                             effect to increased reliance on food imports to
Index (base year 2000)
                                                                             bridge this gap.
350
                                                                             In fact, this trend of food imports growing faster than
                       Histroy        Trend forecast                         food exports is already evident in the data from the
300
                                                                             past decade. Food exports values have actually
                                                                             slowly eroded (-4 per cent) whilst food imports
250
                                                                             values have increased by 80 per cent in value
                                                                             between 2000 and now. This pattern is even more
200
                                                         3     2    1        evident with data that is volume based with the
150
                                                                             imports to exports index gap widening further.

                                                                             These tension points raise questions as to whether
100
                                                                             the Australian food industry is optimally positioned
                                                                             to face these challenges, in view of current changes
50
                                                                             and trends in regards to its structure. We will now
                                                                             look in more detail at these cumulative trends that
 0
  2000-01        2005-06         2010-11       2015-16             2020-21   create this tension point.

       Production $                Import $                  Population
       Consumption $               Export $

Sources: Australian Food Statistics Report 2008, Processed Food
manufacturing. Data have been indexed on year 2000 and linear
trendline have been applied.

                                                                                                                                  11
2.1 Australian population trends

Between 2000 and 2009, population in Australia           Fig 2. Australian population trend (2000-2009)
grew from 19.2 million to just over 22 million, an 11
                                                         Population
per cent increase.
                                                         23,000,000
Latest official ABS projections for population range
from 30 million to 40 million by 2050, depending
on the scenarios (low/high fertility, life expectancy,   22,000,000
overseas migration). This could represent a near
doubling of our current numbers.
                                                         21,000,000
This population increase and the future projections
need to be considered in relation to their effects on
our food consumption rates and patterns, as well as
how well the Australian food industry is poised and      20,000,000

structured to support them in the near future.

They also need to be considered holistically across      19,000,000
the “paddock to plate” value chain at production,
processing and retail components, and structure
and trends in the Australian food and grocery            18,000,000
industry.                                                              2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009

Let’s turn our attention first to the food consumption   Source: ABS table 3101.0 ‘Australian demographic Statistics’.

patterns.

                                                         Fig 3. Australia Projected Population in Millions
                                                         (2007 to 2051)
                                                         Population in million ('000)
                                                                                                           40,086.6 34,213.2 30,306.6
                                                         40,000

                                                         30,000

                                                         20,000

                                                         10,000

                                                         0
                                                                      2007        2011        2021         2031    2041      2051

                                                                      Series A                  Series B              Series C
                                                                  Series A: assumes           Series B: assumes    Series C: assumes low
                                                                  high levels of fertility,   medium levels of     levels of fertility,
                                                                  life expectancy,            fertility, life      life expectancy,
                                                                  overseas migration          expectancy,          overseas migration
                                                                  and interstate              overseas migration   and interstate
                                                                  migration flows             and interstate       migration flows
                                                                                              migration flows

                                                         Source: ABS catalogue 31010DO001_200909 Australian Demographic
                                                         Statistics, Sep 2009, Table 9 Projected resident population, states &
                                                         territories.

12
2.2 Australian food consumption trends

Our food consumption continues to rise at a pace                     Fig 4. Grocery Retail Turnover Trend (2000-2009)
that is outstripping the population and GDP growth
rates, thus creating pressure and additional demand                  Million (A$)

for local fresh and processed foodstuffs.                            100,000                                                               40.0%

Australians continue to consume more per capita                      90,000                                                                39.5%
and this is reflected in the growth of grocery retail                80,000
                                                                                                                                           39.0%
turnover figures - the best data proxy for our food
consumption - which have increased by 70 per cent                    70,000
                                                                                                                                           38.5%
since the year 2000. (Source: ABS catalogue 8501.0 ‘Retail Trade,    60,000
Australia’. Table 11. Retail Turnover, state by industry subgroup)                                                                         38.0%
                                                                     50,000
When we indexed consumption growth trends vs.                                                                                              37.5%
                                                                     40,000
population in the last decade, two key insights were
                                                                                                                                           37.0%
uncovered to support this trend:                                     30,000

                                                                     20,000                                                                36.5%
• Consumption volumes have grown 12 per cent
   faster than population in the same period of time                 10,000                                                                36.0%

•C
  onsumption values have grown 42 per cent faster                   0.0                                                                   35.5%

 than population in the same period of time                                     2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008
                                                                                 -01 -02 -03 -04 -05 -06 -07 -08 -09

Grocery retail has grown faster than GDP, reflecting
                                                                                    Grocery retail        Grocery % of total retail
the fact that the per capita demand for food is on
the rise, but also potentially linked to the diluting                Source: ABS catalogue 8501.0 ‘Retail Trade, Australia’. Table 11.
factor that grocery retailers are including more
categories in their portfolio to drive overall demand.
                                                                     Fig 5. Grocery Retail Share in GDP (2000-2009)

                                                                     Percentage

                                                                     9.0
                                                                                                                                           8.4
                                                                                                                                  7.9
                                                                     8.0                                                 7.6
                                                                                                                7.3
                                                                                       6.8     6.9     7.0
                                                                     7.0      6.6

                                                                     6.0

                                                                     5.0

                                                                     4.0

                                                                     3.0

                                                                     2.0

                                                                     1.0

                                                                     0.0
                                                                           2001       2002    2003    2004     2005     2006     2007     2008
                                                                            -02        -03     -04     -05      -06      -07      -08      -09

                                                                              Grocery as % of GDP          GDP % Growth

                                                                     Sources: ABS catalogue 8501.0 ‘Retail Trade, Australia’, table 11, Retail
                                                                     Turnover, state by industry subgroup. ABS catalogue 1350.0, Australian
                                                                     Economic Indicators, Aug 2009, table 13500DO001_200907.

                                                                                                                                                 13
2.3 Australian primary production trends

Food production volumes are linked to many factors      Fig 6. Australia agriculture food production trends
– ranging from weather patterns, through legislative    (2000-2008)
and regulatory initiatives to the effects of global                                                                         $ Millions
                                                        Kilo tonnes
trade and commodities demand patterns, as well
                                                        120,000                                                               40000
as local demand requirements. As such, isolating
any one of these as the overriding factor that drives                                                                         35000
                                                        100,000
the end volumes and values is an inexact science at
                                                                                                                              30000
best.
                                                        80,000
                                                                                                                              25000
What we are focusing on here are the overt facts
related to the observed end patterns in production      60,000                                                                20000
values and volumes and how they relate to the
                                                                                                                              15000
wider trends in the “paddock to plate” food industry    40,000
in Australia.                                                                                                                 10000
                                                        20,000
At top line summary, the Australian food production                                                                           5000
patterns in the last decade indicate:
                                                        0.0                                                                   0
                                                                   2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007
• Value rise of 21 per cent over that period in time                -01 -02 -03 -04 -05 -06 -07 -08

  olume decrease of 11 per cent over that period
•V                                                                    Agricultural food production (Volume)
 in time                                                               Agricultural food production (Value)

These trends lag behind population growth trends        Source: Australian Food Statistics Report 2008, Agricultural Food
and more importantly consumption volume trends          production by commodity.

for Australia. This means that Australian food export
revenues will be negatively impacted to allow
                                                        Fig 7. Australia - Agricultural Food Production
for diversion of local production to satisfy local
                                                        Volume Trends (2000-2008)
demand.
                                                         20%
                                                                                       16%
As indicated, these trends may also reflect drought
conditions and climate variability that have been        10%
                                                                                                               5.4% 6.2%
observed in Australia in recent years. [Drought is                                                    1.5%
already over in most places]. At a more detailed          0%
level we can see the patchy volume growth
patterns across some of the key commodities:            -10%
                                                                                                                           -12.5%

• Positive growth – Sugar cane                          -20%

•M
  arginal growth - Fisheries, livestock and            -30%
                                                                      -29%
 vegetables                                                                                  -33.1%
                                                        -40%
• Negative growth - Grain, oil seeds, fruits and milk
                                                        -50%
                                                                              -49.1%

                                                        -60%

                                                                  Grains                              Oil seeds

                                                                  Sugar cane and peanuts              Fruits

                                                                  Vegetables                          Livestock (production)

                                                                  Fisheries                           Milk (litre converted in kt)

                                                        Source: Australian Food Statistics Report 2008, Agricultural Food
                                                        production by commodity.

14
2.4 Australian processed food production trends

The trend of lagging behind consumption demand             Figs. 8 and 9. Processed Food Manufacturing
growth gets more pervasive when we shift our               (Index Value)
attention to the processed food sector in Australia.       Index (year base 2000)

Only two categories seem to be keeping up with             250
consumption growth rates in regards to production
rates. As such, the overall 37 per cent growth in
                                                           200
value between 2000 and 2009 for food production
is not high enough to sustain local consumption
growth rates. This signals the slowdown in the rate of     150
expansion of local manufacturing capacity as well as
the slowdown of production efficiency and product
innovation rates to keep up with local consumption         100
trends.

As such, local production may need to be supported          50
by further imports to close the gap with projected
consumption levels.
                                                               0
When we extend the current index patterns forward,                 2000-01 2001-02 2002-03 2003-04 2004-05 2005-06 2006-07

and use the consumption growth rate as the                     Meat  processing                        Seafood   processing
                                                           Source: Australian Food Statistics Report 2008, Processed Food
reference point, further detail emerges:                   manufacturing   (values
                                                               Dairy products      have been indexed Fruit
                                                                                processing              on year 2000).
                                                                                                             & veg processing
                                                                   Oil & fat processing                     Grain mill cereals processing
• Sugar & confectionary and bakery products are
                                                              Bakery products processing                    Sugar and confectionary
   the only two groups that are growing at a faster        Outlook
   rate than consumption                                           Other food processing                    Beverages
                                                           Index (year base 2000)
                                                                   Consumption
• Oil & fats manufacturing is declining not only          450
   in regards to keeping up with the growth of                                             Histroy     Trend forecast
                                                           400
   consumption but also in absolute terms
                                                           350
• The remaining commodities are not keeping up
                                                           300
   with the growth of consumption and will need to be
   supported by imports to satisfy local consumption       250
   growth.
                                                           200
These trends once again underline the apparent
                                                           150
divergence between local consumption growth rates
and the changing way that the industry is currently        100
poised to support it locally.
                                                           50

The last piece of the trends puzzle – the imports          0
vs exports trend - suggests that if these patterns                 2000           2005               2010           2015             2020
continue the solution to this divergence will not lie in
                                                                    Meat processing                         Seafood processing
increasing local capacity, but rather on increased
reliance on imports. The question remains whether                   Dairy products processing               Fruit & veg processing

this is the right solution for our market and industry.             Oil & fat processing                    Grain mill cereals processing
                                                                    Bakery products processing              Sugar and confectionary
                                                                    Other food processing                   Beverages
                                                                    Consumption growth baseline

                                                           Sources: Australian Food Statistics Report 2008, Processed Food
                                                           manufacturing. Data have been indexed on year 2000 and linear
                                                           trendline have been applied.

                                                                                                                                       15
2.5 Australian food exports and imports trends

Over the last decade – there has been a clear           Fig 10. Food Imports and Exports Trend
divergence in food exports and imports patterns:
                                                        Kilo tonnes                                                  $ (million)
• F ood Exports are in decline – decrease in value     35,000                                                        30,000
   (-4 per cent) and volume (-40 per cent) between
   2000 and 2009                                        30,000                                                        25,000

• F ood Imports are on the rise – increase in value
                                                        25,000
   (+80 per cent) and volume (+94 per cent)                                                                           20,000
   between 2000 and 2009
                                                        20,000
Further analysis reveals that the contribution of                                                                     15,000
food exports value to total Australian exports has      15,000
declined from 18 per cent in 2000 to 8 per cent in                                                                    10,000
2009 – this is a 55 per cent share decrease in one      10,000
decade.
                                                                                                                      5,000
                                                        5,000
As such, it is evident that the current trends and
projections for population growth and increasing
                                                        0                                                             0
consumption, combined with local food
                                                                 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007
production that is declining in volume terms have                 -01  -02  -03  -04  -05  -06  -07  -08
the effect of:
                                                                   Food imports (volume)           Food exports (volume)
• T ransferring some of the potential export volumes                 Food imports (value)         Food exports (value)
   to local consumption
                                                        Source: ABS catalogue 5368.0 International Trade in Goods and Services,
                                                        Australia, table 12a and 13a used for export & import value. ABS
• Increasing the import volumes to close the           unpublished catalogue used for import and export volume.
   consumption gap

In addition, current Australian currency strength is    Fig 11. Australia - Food Products Imports Trends
putting further pressure on local producers to stay
                                                        Kilo tonnes                                                  $ (million)
competitive with imported foods.
                                                        6,000                                                          10,000
Lastly, it suggests that overseas sourcing for food
                                                                                                                       9,000
products is increasingly used as a long term
                                                        5,000
alternative by the food processing and grocery                                                                         8,000
retail industry in order to maintain all year long
                                                                                                                       7,000
supply in the market and bridge the gap to              4,000
growing consumption.                                                                                                   6,000

                                                        3,000                                                          5,000

                                                                                                                       4,000
                                                        2,000
                                                                                                                       3,000

                                                                                                                       2,000
                                                        1,000
                                                                                                                       1,000

                                                        0                                                              0
                                                                 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007
                                                                  -01  -02  -03  -04  -05  -06  -07  -08

                                                                 Food imports (volume)        Food imports (value)

                                                        Source: ABS catalogue 5368.0 International Trade in Goods and Services,
                                                        Australia, table 13a used for imports value. ABS unpublished catalogue
                                                        used for imports volume.

16
2.6 Food industry sustainability dilemma

As demonstrated, the Australian market is displaying   • How important is the food industry to the
a number of trends that are putting pressure on the      Australian economy?
long term sustainability of the “paddock to plate”
food industry in this country.                         • What is the current size and structure of the
                                                          industry at primary, manufacturing and retail
We are facing a paradox where we have a                   level?
growing population and growing per capita food
consumption that is contrasted with decrease in        • What is the level of concentration and competition
local primary as well as processed food production        across the food chain ?
and exports, resulting in growing imports to bridge
                                                       • What are the current trends and issues faced by
the consumption gap. It seems that the local
                                                          the players in the food chain in Australia?
industry is not responding to the demand growth
signals of a market economy, in fact it seems to be    • Is concentration in the retail sector also resulting in
going in the opposite direction.                          concentration in other sectors of the food chain?
There are questions that come to mind as to what is
driving these patterns and why it is happening:

                                                                                                                17
18
3. Australian grocery industry -
context and structure
The grocery industry is the key channel for food                                  ‘Retail Trade, Australia’. Table 11). It has registered
distribution and consumption. It is the single biggest                            a 70 per cent growth in the last decade and forms
retail sector and makes up 39.6 per cent of total                                 8.4 per cent of the total Australian GDP, 27 per cent
retail turnover in 2008-2009 (ABS Catalogue 8501.0                                share growth in one decade.

Fig 12. Grocery Retail Turnover Trend (2000-2009)

Million (A$)
100,000                                                                                                                                           40.0%

90,000                                                                                                                                            39.5%
80,000                                                                                                                                            39.0%
70,000
                                                                                                                                                  38.5%
60,000
                                                                                                                                                  38.0%
50,000
                                                                                                                                                  37.5%
40,000
                                                                                                                                                  37.0%
30,000

20,000                                                                                                                                            36.5%

10,000                                                                                                                                            36.0%

0.0                                                                                                                                               35.5%
                    2000-01        2001-02       2002-03       2003-04       2004-05       2005-06        2006-07       2007-08        2008-09

                  Grocery retail             Grocery % of total retail

Source: ABS catalogue 8501.0 ‘Retail Trade, Australia’. Table 11.

Fig 13. Grocery Retail Growth (2000-2009)

Growth (%)
 10
  9
  8
  7
  6
  5
  4
  3
  2
  1
  0
      2000-01         2001-02           2002-03            2003-04           2004-05           2005-06           2006-07           2007-08        2008-09

            Grocery retail % growth                         GDP % growth                             Total retail % growth

Source: ABS catalogue 8501.0 ‘Retail Trade, Australia’. Table 11. Retail Turnover, state by industry subgroup. ABS catalogue 1350.0, Australian
Economic Indicators, Aug 2009, table 13500DO001_200907.

                                                                                                                                                       19
Thus, the importance of the grocery industry and          It has grown 62 per cent over the 2000-2009 period
channel has increased in the last decade and              (note that this is slightly slower than the food centric
its growth has outpaced that of both GDP and              grocery sector at 70 per cent growth in the same
the overall retail sector in the second half of the       period). It also registered $230 billion in turnover
decade.                                                   in 2008-2009 financial year. The retail sector as
                                                          a whole, now forms over 20 per cent of the total
Similar trends are observed in the wider retail sector,   Australian economy.
which similarly has outpaced the GDP growth in
Australia and is now a cornerstone of the Australian      Australian retail has a more stable growth pattern
economy.                                                  when compared to other countries. The patterns
                                                          are much less “peaky” than those of other countries,
                                                          such as France, Canada or Japan that oscillated
                                                          between growth and stagnation. This may be
                                                          indicative of reduced competition. However, the
                                                          retail industry provides a steady growth “engine
                                                          room” to the Australian economy and the other
                                                          related industries that depend on it.

20
Fig 14. Grocery Retail Share in GDP (2000-2009)                                   Fig 15. Retail Turnover Trend (2000-2009)
Percentage                                                                        Millions (A$)

9.0                                                                               250,000                                                                    25%
                                                                          8.4
                                                                  7.9
8.0                                                        7.6
                                                 7.3
                     6.8     6.9        7.0                                       200,000
7.0                                                                                                                                                          20%
            6.6

6.0
                                                                                  150,000                                                                    15%
5.0

4.0
                                                                                  100,000                                                                    10%
3.0

2.0                                                                               50,000                                                                     5%

1.0

0.0                                                                               0                                                                          0%
        2001        2002    2003       2004     2005       2006   2007    2008                 2001    2002    2003   2004   2005     2006    2007   2008
         -02         -03     -04        -05      -06        -07    -08     -09                 -02     -03     -04    -05    -06      -07     -08    -09

            Grocery as % of GDP              GDP % Growth                                        Retail turnover       Retail turnover as a % of GDP

Sources: ABS catalogue 8501.0 ‘Retail Trade, Australia’, table 11, Retail         Source: ABS catalogue 8501.0 ‘Retail Trade, Australia’. Table 11. Retail
Turnover, state by industry subgroup. ABS catalogue 1350.0, Australian            Turnover, state by industry subgroup.
Economic Indicators, Aug 2009, table 13500DO001_200907.

Fig 16. Retail Turnover Growth (2000-2009)                                        Fig 17. Retail Growth (per cent): Global Comparison

Growth (%)                                                                        Growth (%)
10                                                                                25

 9                                                                                20
 8
                                                                                  15
 7
                                                                                  10
 6

 5                                                                                5

 4
                                                                                  0
 3
                                                                                  -5
 2

 1                                                                                -10

 0                                                                                -15
     2001         2002     2003       2004      2005       2006    2007    2008         2001    2002       2003    2004      2005      2006     2007     2008
     -02          -03      -04        -05       -06        -07     -08     -09           -02     -03        -04     -05       -06       -07      -08      -09

        GDP growth                Retail industry growth                                       Australia              US            Canada           Germany
                                                                                               Australia GDP          UK            France           Japan
Source: ABS catalogue 8501.0 ‘Retail Trade, Australia’. Table 11. Retail
Turnover, state by industry subgroup. ABS catalogue 1350.0, Australian
Economic Indicators, Aug 2009, table 13500DO001_200907.                           Sources: ABS catalogue 8501.0 ‘Retail Trade, Australia’. Table 11. Retail
                                                                                  Turnover, state by industry subgroup. ABS catalogue 1350.0, Australian
                                                                                  Economic Indicators, Aug 2009, table 13500DO001_200907. Planet Retail.

                                                                                                                                                              21
3.1 An employment perspective on the retail, grocery
and food industries

The retail Industry is the single biggest employer                              The grocery component of this value chain has
in the Australian Economy – with over 1.5 million                               shown healthy employment trends between 2000-
Australians being part of the industry. The grocery                             2008:
sector on its own is in the top ten of the usual
industry classifications and employs 411,000 people.                            • Overall employment grew 33 per cent , from
                                                                                  300,000 to 411,000 people
An additional interesting perspective relates to
the combined workforce that works in the grocery                                • Full time employed grew 25 per cent- from 131,700
sector as well as the upstream manufacturing                                      to 164,000 people
and primary production sectors. These form the
                                                                                • Grocery increased its share of total retail
“paddock to plate” value chain, which employs
                                                                                  employment to 27 per cent
just over 912,000 Australians and ranks as the sixth
biggest employer of its own accord.                                             • Grocery increased its share of total employment to
                                                                                  five per cent.
This is the sector that is, as a whole, being affected
by the trends that we have observed in the first part                           As a side note - Woolworths and Coles, the two
of this report. These are the trends that are currently                         key retail grocery chains employ 53 per cent of the
indicating that its sustainability is at risk.                                  grocery workforce vs. their market share of 79 per
                                                                                cent.

Fig 18. Total Employment by industry in 2008

Persons employed ('000)

1,600
         1518

1,400

1,200

1,000
                                                912.3

800

600

                                                                                         411.5
400

200

0

        Retail     Manufacturing Construction       Education     Gov. admin.    Wholesale   Finance and   Agriculture,    Comm.        Electricity,
        trade                                                        and           trade       insurance   forestry and    services      gas and
                                                                   defence                                    fishing                     water
                                                                                                                                          supply
              Property      Health and      "Paddock         Accom,        Transport    Grocery    Personal and      Cultural        Mining
            and business    community        to Plate"      cafes and     and storage    retail    other services      and
              services        services                      restaurants                                        recreational services

Source: ABS catalogue 6105.0 ‘Australian Labour market Statistics’.

22
Fig 20. Grocery Retail Employment Growth (2000-2009) Fig 21. Grocery Retail Employment Profile (2008-09)

16%

14%

12%
                                                                                                           Coles
10%
                                                                                                        113,000, 27%
8%                                                                                                                                Other
                                                                                                                               191,500, 47%
6%

4%
                                                                                                          Woolworths
2%                                                                                                        107,000, 26%
0%

-2%

-4%
      2000     2001    2002       2003   2004      2005     2006     2007            Sources: Coles and Woolworths annual reports 2009, ABS catalogue
       -01      -02     -03        -04    -05       -06      -07      -08            6105.0 ‘Australian Labour market Statistics’ table 4. ‘other’ category
                                                                                     includes employed persons in independents supermarkets and
                                                                                     discounters, convenience & forecourts retailers, other specialized
             Grocery retail employment growth                                        grocery retailers.
             Total retail employment growth
             Total employment growth

Source: ABS catalogue 6105.0 ‘Australian Labour market Statistics’ table 4.

Fig 19. Grocery Retail Employment Trend

Persons ('000)

450                                                                                                                                                           30%

400
                                                                                                                                                              25%
350

300                                                                                                                                                           20%

250
                                                                                                                                                              15%
200

150                                                                                                                                                           10%

100
                                                                                                                                                              5%
50

0                                                                                                                                                             0%
             2000          2001            2002            2003               2004             2005            2006            2007             2008

         Grocery retailing total employed                  Total employed in grocery versus total employed in retail (%)
         Grocery retailing full time employed              Total employed in grocery versus total employed (%)

Source: ABS catalogue 6105.0 ‘Australian Labour market Statistics’ table 4.

                                                                                                                                                               23
3.2 Retail and grocery sectors
– cross industry perspectives

It is also relevant to provide some additional cross-     Fig 22. Employment Industry Comparison, 2008
industry perspective to the nature of the retail and      Employees ('000)
grocery sectors.                                          1,600        1518.0
                                                          1,400
Overall, retail is the largest employer in the            1,200                    1090.2         1085.3
Australian economy. Grocery as a sector of retail         1,000
employs more people than the mining industry.                 800
                                                              600
Taking the comparisons further than employment                                                                      411.5
                                                              400
and in the context of turnover figures, although                                                                                168.5
                                                              200
trailing the combined manufacturing sector, retail
                                                               0
has a turnover nearly twice that of the mining                          Retail Manufacturing Health               Grocery       Mining
sector.                                                                 trade                industry              retail
                                                                                               Industry
Lastly, with regard to the number of businesses, retail
has twice as many as the manufacturing sector –           Source: ABS catalogue 6105.0 ‘Australian Labour market
                                                          Statistics’ table 4.
signaling higher level of dispersal, although not to
the same degree as the construction sector (which
is populated by a large number of sole-trader             Fig 23. Industry Turnover Comparison 2008
type businesses) , reflecting the need for grocery
                                                          Turnover ($A billion)
retail outlets to service widely distributed local        450
communities.                                                        395.8
                                                          400
                                                          350
                                                          300
                                                          250                       230.6
                                                          200
                                                          150                                      120.9
                                                          100                                                       85.3
                                                                                                                                54.0
                                                          50
                                                          0
                                                              Manufacturing         Retail        Mining          Grocery       Health
                                                                                                                   retail
                                                                                            Industry

                                                          Source: ABS: 81550DO001_200708 Australian Industry, 2007 -08 (Additional
                                                          Data Cubes) Table 1

                                                          Fig 24. Industry Comparison: Number of Businesses
                                                          (2007)
                                                          No of businesses
                                                          350,000
                                                                       322,404
                                                          300,000
                                                          250,000
                                                                                 219,273
                                                          200,000
                                                          150,000
                                                                                             106,565       92,318
                                                          100,000
                                                          50,000                                                       31,560     7,205
                                                          0
                                                                    Construction Retail Manufacturing Health Grocery             Mining
                                                                                 trade                       retailing

                                                                                                       Industry

                                                          Sources: ABS Businesses by Industry Division 2003-2007 and catalogue
                                                          8165.0 counts of Australian businesses June 2003 to June 2007.

24
3.3 Grocery sector - size, shares and stores context

Looking at the trends across the key channels in the                           Fig 25. Turnover by Grocery Channel (2000-2009)
grocery sector provides additional perspective as
                                                                               Million (A$)
to the dynamics of the industry. There, the patterns
vary across the three key channels of: supermarkets,                           120,000
specialist grocery retailers and convenience and
                                                                               100,000
forecourt retailers2.
                                                                                80,000
Across these key channels in grocery, supermarkets                                                                                                                68%
                                                                                                                                          66.2%       67.4%
have been the key growth drivers for this sector, with                          60,000                                         $65.3
                                                                                                       64.9%       65.1%
their share of the sector rising from 63.5 per cent                                         63.5%

to 68 per cent (from $43 billion to $62billion in the                           40,000
                                                                                                                                                            23%      23%
period 2003 to 2009, a total of 43 per cent growth).                                             24.4%     23.3%       23.7%       23.7%        23.4%
                                                                                12,000
                                                                                                  12.1%     11.8%       11.2%       11%         10.4%        9.6%       9%
Smaller operators, such as specialist grocery retailers                              0
and convenience and forecourt retailers registered                                          2003         2004       2005        2006          2007      2008        2009
slower or patchy growth rates.
                                                                                                 Supermarkets

The convenience sector has in fact shrunk in                                                     Specialist grocery retailers
                                                                                                 Convenience & forecourts retailers
importance and registered negative growth in the
                                                                                                 Grocery retailing
last three years of the decade, coinciding with
the overall economic slowdown and increased                                    Source: Euromonitor International: Retailing in Australia 2009.
competitive pressures from other Grocery channels.
                                                                               Fig 26. Turnover Growth by Grocery Retail Channel
                                                                               (2000-2009)

                                                                               Million (A$)
                                                                               10%

                                                                               8%                                                               8.8%
                                                                                                                                                    6.8%
                                                                               6%    6.6%                                       6.7%
                                                                                                         5.7%           4.4%           5.4%                 5.6%

                                                                               4%          4.2% 4.3%               4.8% 4.6%                         5.1%         4.6%
                                                                                                            4%                         4.2%                          4.3%

                                                                               2%             1.5%                         2.0%

                                                                               0%                                                                       -1.6%       -1.5%

                                                                                         -0.5%                                          -0.2%
                                                                               -2%                         -0.9%

                                                                                     2003-04         2004-05       2005-06        2006-07       2007-09         2008-09

                                                                                         Supermarkets (% growth)
                                                                                         Specialist grocery retailers (% growth)
                                                                                         Convenience & forecourts retailers (% growth)
                                                                                         Total grocery retail turnover (% growth)

                                                                               Source: Euromonitor International: Retailing in Australia 2009.

2. “Supermarket outlet” indicates the ‘majors’ (Coles & Woolworths), and the ‘independents’ (IGA, Foodland, FoodWorks, Franklins and other bannered
stores and limited assortment stores such as Aldi and SPAR). According to Euromonitor, these are retail outlets selling groceries with a selling space of
between 400 and 2,500 square metres. ”Specialist grocery retailers” indicates the retail outlets specialising in the sale of mainly one category of food,
drinks stores and tobacconists and includes bakers (bread and flour confectionery), butchers (meat and meat products), fishmongers (fish and seafood),
greengrocers (fruit and vegetables), drinks stores (alcoholic and non-alcoholic drinks), tobacconists (tobacco products and smokers’ accessories),
cheesemongers, chocolatiers and other single food categories (Euromonitor). The convenience and forecourt retailers category is an aggregation of
convenience stores, independent small grocers and forecourt retailers (chained and independent). (Euromonitor).

                                                                                                                                                                          25
Market share statistics and trends across the
grocery channels and even within the key
supermarket channel, are hard to stabilize, due to
different methodologies and data coverage across                              Fig 27. Market Shares: Supermarkets (2009)
different sources. As such, the focus is on range of
market share as opposed to exact measures.                                                                                             Coles
                                                                                                                  0.03%
                                                                                                                     1.4%
Market share rankings in the supermarket sectors                                                     14.4%                             Woolworths
                                                                                                                       2.2%
are quite consistent, with Woolworths, Coles                                                                            3.7%
                                                                                                                                       IGA
and IGA being the order of the major players.
Combined market share of Woolworths and Coles
                                                                                                                                       FoodWorks
ranges between 77 and 80.4 per cent. Shares for                                        46.2%                 31.8%
IGA banners range from 11.3 per cent (various                                                                                          Franklins
publication and estimates from Metcash) to 14.4
per cent (Euromonitor).                                                                                                                Spar

The market share discussion in the supermarket                                                                                         Aldi
sector gives rise to the much-discussed level of
                                                                              Source: Euromonitor, retailing in Australia 2009.
industry concentration in this sector. Indeed,
Australia has the most concentrated supermarket
sectors in the world - whether one takes the top
two or top three or top five players into account in
the analysis.

Fig 28. 2009 Turnover by supermarkets players (incl. Liquor sales)

                              Turnover ($ billion)                       Cumul                                  Market share

                              incl.            excl.                     incl.         excl.                    incl. Liquor       excl. Liquor
                              Liquor           Liquor sales              Liquor        Liquor sales             sales              sales
                              sales                                      sales

Woolworths                    $32.8            $27.6                     $32.8         $27.6                    47.4 %             45.6 %

Coles                         $22.5            $20.1                     $55.3         $47.7                    32.7 %             33.2 %

IGA retail                    $8.2             $7.7                      $63.5         $55.4                    11.9 %             12.7 %

FoodWorks                     $1.7             $1.6                      $65.2         $57.0                    2.5 %              2.6 %

Franklins                     $0.9             $0.9                      $66.1         $57.9                    1.3 %              1.4 %

Aldi                          $2.3             $2.3                      $68.4         $60.2                    3.3 %              3.8 %

Spar                          $0.4             $0.4                      $68.8         $60.6                    0.6 %              0.7 %

Total                         $68.8            $60.6

Sources: Company reports 2009, Euromonitor and other publications.. Convenience & forecourts retailers and specialist grocery retailers are excluded.

Fig 29. Grocery retailing market shares – country comparison

Country                  Market share                                   Major players

                         Top 2           No 3,4,5       Top 5

Australia                79.6 %          18 %           97 %            Woolworths, Coles, IGA, Foodworks, Franklins

UK                       48 %            35.5 %         83.5 %          Tesco, Asda, Sainsbury, Morrissons, Co-op Group

USA                      20 %            22 %           42 %            Wallmart, Kroger, Target, Walgreens, Costco

Source: Euromonitor and Planet Retail.

26
There has been continual dialogue and debate as                               With regard to the number of stores across the key
to the impacts that such industry structure may have                          banners and groups, Woolworths, Coles and IGA
on the wider industry and the “paddock to plate”                              take the top three spots.
value chain. The facts that we are facing state that,
since the mid 1970’s, Coles and Woolworths have                               When the supermarkets are broken out of the total
consistently increased their market shares, going                             grocery numbers, IGA has around 25 per cent of
from a combined 35 per cent in 1975 to 79 per                                 store numbers, followed by Woolworths at 17 per cent
cent combined in 2009 and only recently levelling                             and Coles at 16 per cent. FoodWorks, ALDI, SPAR and
out. Australia has become the most concentrated                               Franklins complete the rankings for supermarkets.
grocery market in the world. When compared to
                                                                              Caution should be taken when comparing store
other countries, Australia is the only market where
                                                                              numbers, especially stores in a metropolitan area
two players have close to 80 per cent of the market.
                                                                              versus stores in regional Australia (IGA, FoodWorks).
We will now turn to provide additional context to                             Independents have 40 per cent of the grocery
the grocery sector in regards to the store numbers.                           stores in Australia overall with only 20 per cent of the
Across all the grocery retail stores, the single largest                      market, due to the fact that they serve many small
sector in regards to store numbers - with over 3000                           regional and rural communities, with stores smaller
stores is the “Other” category which relates to small                         than those operated by the big chains in major
independent grocery retailers, in the convenience &                           urban centres.
forecourt retailing sector.

Fig 31. Grocery Retail Number of Stores (2009)                                Fig 32. Supermarkets Store Numbers (2009)

                                                         Coles                                                                                Coles

                         1388                            Woolworths                                802                                        Woolworths
                        (16%)                                                                      17%
                                                         IGA
                                                                                      763                                                     IGA
         3033                                            FoodWorks                    16%                       1147
                                  1215                                                                                                        FoodWorks
        (35%)                                                                                                   25%
                                 (14%)                   Franklins
                                                                                                                                              Franklins
                                                                                      844
                                                         Spar
                                                                                      18%
                             1278                                                                                                             Spar
                                                         Aldi                                             710
                            (15%)
                                                                                                          15%
                                                                                                                                              Aldi
                                                         7 Eleven
 250
(3%)                                                                                                                                          Others
       476                                               NightOwl
      (5%)                       410
          55             89                                                                                 85
                                (5%)                     Caltex
               231 88 (1%)                                                                                  2%
        (0.1%)                                                                                       89
               (3%) (1%)                                 BP                                 231
             198                                                                                     2%
                                                                                            5%
            (2%)                                         Others

Source: Euromonitor, Retailing in Australia 2009. Companises annual           Source: Euromonitor, Retailing in Australia, 2009, companies annual
reports 2009 olso includes Bi-Lo and Coles Express. IGA includes IGA          reports 2009.
Express. Spar includes Spar Express.

Fig 30. Growth in Market Share of Woolworths & Coles (1975-2009)
90%

80%

70%

60%                                                                                                                                                   46.2%
                                                                                                                       44%         45%        46%
50%                                                                                                      42%
                                                                                            35%
40%                                                                    29%      32%
                                                 26%       28%
                                         20%
30%                        20%
        16%      18%
20%
                                                                                                         33%           34%        34.5%       34%     33.4%
                                                                                26%         26%
10%     18%      18%       20%           22%     24%       22%         24%

  0%
       1975      1978      1981        1984     1987       1990        1993    1996         1999         2005          2006        2007      2008         2009

              Coles          Woolworths                                                                                      Source: AC Nielsen, Euromonitor.

                                                                                                                                                              27
28
4. Australian food and grocery
industry & "paddock to plate"
context and structure
The impact of the food industry stretches beyond         Fig 33. Grocery Retail Departments Turnover ($ million)
the retail end of the value chain and encompasses        2008
the “paddock to plate” eco-system of businesses
that grow, process, reprocess and then sell the food
in Australia and beyond. We will look at the structure                         $9,955.6,
and the components of this eco-system more                      $20,382.4,       11%
                                                                   23%
closely in this part of the report.                                                                         Fresh foods

We will start, however, by delving a bit deeper first                                $23,045.4,             Processed
                                                                                        26%                 packaged foods
into the make up of the retail side of the food story,
to provide additional detail as to the nature of the                                                        Other non foods
                                                                  $35,938.8,
mix of goods and the role of food categories at the                  40%                                    manufactured
                                                                                                            goods
end of the value chain. In the following pages, we
set out the turnover of each grocery category and
                                                                                                            Tobacco
the value added at each step in the supply chain.
Taken together, they account for a large part of the     Sources: consolidated data from various sources: Euromonitor Data, ABS,
                                                         and other official statistics from industry associations.
Australian economy.

They also reflect the purchasing choices of
Australian supermarket customers on a daily and
weekly basis.

When we look a typical breakdown of total grocery
figures across the key departments - fresh foods,
processed and packaged foods, other non-
foods and manufactured goods and tobacco
- it becomes apparent that food still is the major
component of the total value of goods sold through
this channel – making up 66 per cent of the total.

                                                                                                                              29
Processed packaged goods (40 per cent) and                                       Fig 35. Grocery Retail Departments Turnover ($ million)
fresh foods (26 per cent) - that is food-based                                   by Grocery Channel (2008)
departments - are the two biggest contributors to
                                                                                  $ million
overall sales value. In terms of categories, drinks and
confectionary (16.6 per cent), general merchandise                                40,000
(11.7 per cent) and tobacco (11.1 per cent) are the                               35,000                               8%
top three key value categories. [Fig. 34]                                                                             11%
                                                                                  30,000
It can also be observed that the goods have                                       25,000
different sales patterns across channels, reflecting                              20,000           18%
shoppers’ preferences and shopping occasions and                                                    8%                              31%
                                                                                  15,000                              81%            2%
missions:
                                                                                                                                                    22%
                                                                                  10,000           74%
• Supermarkets dominate the processed packaged                                                                                     68%             26%
                                                                                  5,000
   goods and non foods areas                                                                                                                        53%
                                                                                  0
                                                                                               Fresh foods      Processed  Other non              Tobacco
• Specialist grocery retailers are still key for fresh                                                         packaged     foods
   foods                                                                                                           food   manufactured
                                                                                                                             goods

• Convenience and forecourt retailers play a key                                                Supermarkets           Convenience & forecourts retailers
   part for tobacco. [Fig 35]
                                                                                                 Specialists grocery retailers

                                                                                  Sources: consolidated data from various sources: Euromonitor Data, ABS,
                                                                                  and other official statistics from industry associations.

Fig 34. Grocery Retail Departments Turnover ($ million) 2008

Drinks & confectionary                                                                                                                    16.6%

General merchandise & other                                                                                   11.7%

Tobacco                                                                                               11.1%

Dry grocery                                                                                      10.3%

Health, beauty & personal care                                                          9.0%

Fresh meat/poultry/fish                                                            8.4%

Bakery products                                                                  8.0%

Dairy                                                                          7.5%

Fresh vegetables                                                               5.2%

Frozen foods                                                         4.4%

Fresh fruits                                                         4.2%

Household products                                       2.2%

Chilled processed foods                      0.9%

Eggs                                       0.5%

                                     0%             2%          4%          8%             10%           12%           14%        16%         18%

                                                                       Share of grocery turnover (%)

Sources: consolidated data from various sources: Euromonitor Data, ABS, and other official statistics from industry associations.

30
Looking at the break down of the figure further          Fig 36. Fresh Foods Categories
we can profile the relative importance of specific       Turnover ($ million) 2008
categories within each of the departments:

• Within fresh foods – fresh meat/poultry/fish is the
   key component (33 per cent), followed by dairy
                                                                   $6,701            $4,620
   (29 per cent) and fresh vegetables (20 per cent).               (29%)             (20%)
   [Fig 36]
                                                                                                                     Fresh vegetables
                                                                                          $3,780
• For processed packaged goods – drinks and                                                                         Fresh fruits
                                                                                          (16%)
   confectionary makes up 41 per cent of the
                                                                                                                     Eggs
   value, followed by dry grocery (26 per cent) and                    $7,500
   packaged bakery (20 per cent). [Fig. 37]                            (33%)                                         Fresh meat/
                                                                                                                     poultry/fish
                                                                                                 $445
• For non foods – general merchandise dominates                                                 (2%)                Dairy
   at 51 per cent followed by Health and Beauty at
   39 per cent. [Fig. 38]                                Sources: consolidated data from various sources: Euromonitor Data,
                                                         ABS, IBIS (fruit & vegetable retailing in Australia 2009 and ‘meat, fish &
                                                         poultry retailing in Australia’) and other official statistics from industry
                                                         associations.

                                                         Fig 37. Processed Packaged Foods Categories Turnover
                                                         ($ Million) 2008

                                                                            $7,133
                                                                             (20%)
                                                                                                                 Chilled processed
                                                                                                                 foods
                                                              $9,224
                                                               (26%)                                             Frozen foods
                                                                                       $14,871
                                                                                        (41%)
                                                                                                                 Dry grocery

                                                                     $3,948                                      Bakery products
                                                                      (11%)
                                                                                                                 Drinks &
                                                                                                                 confectionary

                                                                            $763
                                                                            (2%)

                                                         Sources: consolidated data from various sources: Euromonitor Data, ABS,
                                                         and other official statistics from industry associations.

                                                         Fig 38. Non Food Manufactured Goods Categories
                                                         Turnover ($ Million) 2008

                                                                                 $1,946
                                                                                 (10%)

                                                                                                                     Household
                                                                                                                     products

                                                               $10,420                 $8,017                        Health,
                                                                (51%)                  (39%)                         beauty
                                                                                                                     & personal
                                                                                                                     care

                                                                                                                     General
                                                                                                                     merchandise
                                                                                                                     & other

                                                         Sources: consolidated data from various sources: Euromonitor Data, ABS,
                                                         and other official statistics from industry associations.

                                                                                                                                        31
The data and analysis presented above profiles            Fig 39. Employment across the Chain in 2008
the Australian retail end of the “paddock to plate”
grocery industry value chain, one that is much            450,000
                                                                                                                     411,500
bigger and wider in regard to its impact on the           400,000
Australian economy than grocery retail on its own.                        290,850
                                                          350,000

The contribution of the value-add component to            300,000
                                                                                                209,920
the economy, across the primary, manufacturing            250,000
and retail steps in the value chain, is worth $126        200,000
billion – 61 per cent of the total turn-over value.
                                                          150,000
These figures make the grocery “paddock to plate”
value chain eco-system a mission critical part of the     100,000
Australian economy.                                       50,000

                                                          0
As hinted in the section where we explored the
                                                                          Produce                Make                   Sell
employment profiles of the key industries in Australia
– the “paddock to plate” grocery value chain                           Employment across the chain in 2008
employs more than 912,000 Australians, which is
                                                          Source: ABS catalogue 6105.0 ‘Australian Labour market statistics’ table 4.
well in excess of the 411,000 that are employed
by the retail portion of the value chain. Overall,
the grocery ”paddock to plate” value chain is             Fig 40. Number of Businesses (2007)
worth approximately $209 billion to the Australian
economy in turn-over - close to 20 per cent of the        200,000
total economy. It is made up of more than 218,000         180,000         179,493
businesses. It contributed around $25 billion in export
                                                          160,000
income to the Australian economy in 2008 – 11.5 per
                                                          140,000
cent of total exports for Australia.
                                                          120,000

                                                          100,000

                                                          80,000

                                                          60,000
                                                                                                                     31,560
                                                          40,000

                                                          20,000
                                                                                              7,035
                                                          0
                                                                         Produce             Make              Sell (Grocery retail)

                                                                        Number of businesses (2007)

                                                          Source: ABS catalogue 8165.0 counts of Australian businesses June 2003
                                                          to June 2007.

                                                          Fig 41. Exports & Imports overview 2008 (A$ billion)

                                                                            Exports               Imports
                                                                            $25.64                 $18.74
                                                                             58%                    42%

                                                          Source: ABARE, Australian Food Statistics 2008.

32
At the same time, the current trends of lowered             Fig 42. Australia - "Paddock to Plate" value chain
production put into question the industry’s ability         values in $ Billion
to continue to generate added value to Australian
                                                            $ billion
GDP, and the feasibility of effectively addressing
current consumption demands from Australian                 250
consumers.
                                                                    209
Looking at the values for the grocery "paddock to           200
plate" value chain across its key product categories
provides additional insights into the structure of this
                                                            150
industry in Australia:
                                                                            126
                                                                                                      104
• Fresh categories make up 25 per cent of total
                                                            100
   value chain value at $52 billion, and contribute
   $30 billion in value-add creation for the value                                    52                    58            53   39
   chain. This is a ratio of 57 per cent for value add      50
                                                                                            30
   component to the overall value.
                                                            0
• Processed packaged foods make up 50 per cent                   Grocery total       Fresh          Processed        Non-food
  of total value chain value and represent the                                      categories       packaged        manufactured
  largest component of the grocery value chain                                                    foods categories    categories
  with $104 billion. Processed packaged goods
                                                                        Value chain value         Value add value
  contribute with $58 billion in value-add creation
  for the value chain. This is a ratio of 56 per cent for
                                                            Sources: ABS, ABARE, Euromonitor (retailing in Australia, Packaged Foods
  the value added component to the overall value.           Australia, soft drinks Australia, chilled processed foods Australia Pet
                                                            food/care Australia, cosmetics & toiletries Australia, households care
• Non food categories make up 25 per cent of total         Australia, consumer health Australia), Industry associations, Australian
                                                            Food Statistics Report 2008, AFGC state of the industry report 2009, IBIS
  value chain with $53 billion, and with $39 billion        (supermarkets and other grocery stores in Australia).
  in value-add. This is a ratio of 73 per cent for the
  value add component to the overall value – the
  highest ratio across the three areas.                     Fig 43. Australia - "Paddock to Plate - Comparative
                                                            Rates of Value add components

                                                            80%
                                                                                                                           73%

                                                                          61%
                                                            60%
                                                                                            57%             56%

                                                            40%

                                                            20%

                                                            0
                                                                        Grocery          Fresh         Processed      Non-food
                                                                         total         categories      packaged      manufactured
                                                                                                         foods        categories
                                                                                                       categories

                                                            Sources: ABS, ABARE, Euromonitor (retailing in Australia, Packaged Foods
                                                            Australia, soft drinks Australia, chilled processed foods Australia Pet
                                                            food/care Australia, cosmetics & toiletries Australia, households care
                                                            Australia, consumer health Australia), Industry associations, Australian
                                                            Food Statistics Report 2008, AFGC state of the industry report 2009, IBIS
                                                            (supermarkets and other grocery stores in Australia).

                                                                                                                                    33
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