BREXIT BRIEF Brexit Brief Issue 96 - 22 October 2020 - The Institute of International and European Affairs
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BREXIT
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Brexit Brief Issue 96
22 October 2020
Tony Brown
Introduction
The Brief seeks to provide up-to-date information on the progress and content of the UK-EU
negotiations, and bring together relevant statements and policy positions from key players in
Ireland, the UK and the EU.
The Brief is part of a wider communications programme covering the work of the IIEA’s UK
Project Group – including commentaries, speeches, texts and event reports – which are
highlighted on the Institute’s website. (www.iiea.com)
Section One: State of Play of ‘more intensive negotiations, while calling
on the UK “to make the necessary moves to
Talks continue despite ‘no-deal’ make an agreement possible.” He asserted
warning by Prime Minister that the EU wanted “the continued ability to
control our legislative freedom, our fisheries,
The UK and EU chief negotiators – Lord David
in a way that is obviously unacceptable to an
Frost and Michel Barnier – announced an
independent country.”
agreement to continue discussions by zoom,
immediately after Downing Street assertions He concluded that the UK should prepare for
that ‘trade talks are over’ and press stories a no-deal situation, “with high hearts and
that Frost had abruptly withdrawn an invitation complete confidence.” A spokesman for the
for a Barnier visit to London. Prime Minister followed up by stating that the
trade talks were over.
Prime Minister Boris Johnson had responded
to the outcome of the European Council The Prime Minister’s remarks appeared
meeting on 15 October by claiming that the however to leave the door open to further
EU had adopted an uncompromising position talks. He spoke of the UK being ready to listen
by saying that they were not prepared to if the EU indicated “some fundamental change
change their position, and to move to a phase of approach.” In Brussels the UK approach
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was received with a measure of surprise. […] from the outset we were totally clear
EU officials argued that a workable deal was that we wanted nothing more complicated
closer than at any time, with progress on the than a Canada-style relationship, based
difficult issue of fisheries in talks between on friendship and free trade. To judge
Michel Barnier and the EU coastal states. And by the latest EU summit in Brussels that
it was argued that real progress has also been won’t work for our EU partners. They
achieved on the state aid issue and the level want the continued ability to control our
playing field guarantee. legislative freedom, our fisheries, in a
way that is obviously unacceptable to an
The scheduled zoom discussions between
independent country.
the chief negotiators will take place with
the realisation that time is running out and And since we have only ten weeks
that there are real obstacles ahead. Michel
until the end of the transition period on
Barnier is seen to face the difficult challenge
January 1, I have to make a judgment
of balancing the need to find acceptable
about the likely outcome and to get
compromises while satisfying the insistence
us all ready. And given that they have
of EU states that the UK must not be given
refused to negotiate seriously for much
competitive advantages. Further, the UK’s
of the last few months, and given that
Internal Market Bill continues to be a serious
this summit appears explicitly to rule out
problem with the European Union initiating
a Canada-style deal, I have concluded
infringement proceedings in respect of the
compliance with the terms of the Withdrawal that we should get ready for January 1
Agreement. with arrangements that are more like
Australia’s based on simple principles
References on the UK side to an ‘Australian- of global free trade. And we can do it,
style’ arrangement must be seen as relating because we always knew that there
to a simple ‘no-deal’ situation since there is no would be change on January 1 whatever
trade deal between Australia and the EU. type of relationship we had. And so now
is the time for our businesses to get
A Telegraph comment sums up the situation: ready, and for hauliers to get ready, and
“It suits everyone for negotiators to play it
for travellers to get ready.
even longer, while leaders indulge in a bit of
political theatre” while the Irish Times argues And of course we are willing to discuss the
that “beyond the rhetoric and the operatic practicalities with our friends where a lot
displays in Downing Street the two sides are of progress has already been made, by
closer on the substance than ever before and the way, on such issues as social security,
a deal remains the most likely outcome.” and aviation, nuclear cooperation and so
on. But for whatever reason it is clear
Prime Minister Boris Johnson
from the summit that after 45 years of
Statement, 16 October 2020
membership they are not willing – unless
Prime Minister Boris Johnson made the there is some fundamental change of
following Statement on Negotiations with the approach – to offer this country the same
European Union on 16 October 2020: terms as Canada. And so with high hearts
and complete confidence we will prepare
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to embrace the alternative. And we will the negotiating directives of 25 February
prosper mightily as an independent 2020, while respecting the previously
free trading nation, controlling our own agreed European Council guidelines,
borders, our fisheries, and setting our as well as statements and declarations,
own laws. notably those of 25 November 2018, in
particular as regards the level playing
European Council, 15 October 2020 field, governance and fisheries. Against
this background, the European Council
The European Council met on 15 October,
invites the Union’s chief negotiator to
and received Michel Barnier’s assessment of
continue negotiations in the coming
the progress to date in the negotiations. In
weeks, and calls on the UK to make the
advance, Taoiseach Michael Martin issued a
necessary moves to make an agreement
brief statement noting that Ireland and the EU
possible.
wanted a positive outcome, but that this could
not come at any price: As regards the Internal Market Bill tabled
by the UK government, the European
Any balanced agreement has to protect
Council recalls that the Withdrawal
the EU’s interests, including those of our
Agreement and its Protocols must be
fishing and coastal communities. I will
fully and timely implemented.
be arguing for an ambitious approach on
other matters, including the level playing The European Council calls upon
field, and will join my fellow Leaders in Member States, Union institutions and
insisting on the full implementation of all stakeholders to step up their work on
the Withdrawal Agreement including its preparedness and readiness at all levels
Protocols. Time is running out to ensure and for all outcomes, including that of no
that a deal can be in place before the end agreement, and invites the Commission,
of the year. I am urging the British side in particular, to give timely consideration
to engage meaningfully with the EU’s to unilateral and time-limited contingency
team to accelerate progress in the period measures that are in the EU’s interest.
ahead. The European Council will remain seized
of the matter.
The Council Conclusions contained the
following brief points on the topic of Brexit: Remarks by Key figures following
European Council, 15 October 2020
The European Council recalls that the
transition period will end on 31 December Speaking after the Council meeting, President
2020 and notes with concern that progress Charles Michael went into some detail about
on the key issues of interest to the Union the EU’s position, noting that EU leaders
is still not sufficient for an agreement remained united and determined to reach an
to be reached. The European Council agreement – though, again, that this could
reaffirms the Union’s determination to not be “at any cost”.
have as close as possible a partnership
with the United Kingdom on the basis of He noted the EU’s concern on the lack of
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progress on key issues, such as the level towards a deal, and for that we need
playing field, and also had the following to say progress. Progress on the question of the
with respect to the Withdrawal Agreement ‘level playing field’, on the question of
and Protocol on Ireland/Northern Ireland: governance, and also on the question of
“they must be fully implemented. Full stop. fisheries. There is therefore a lot of work,
And that’s also a question of international a lot of work for us to focus on.
credibility for the UK. In parallel, we will step
up our work, at all levels and for all outcomes, From tomorrow, I will be in discussions
including that of a no deal.” with my counterpart David Frost. As of
Monday, we will be in London for the
Michel Barnier, representing Commission week – and if necessary the weekend as
President, Ursula von der Leyen who was well – and the following week in Brussels.
self-isolating, addressed the Press Briefing This is in any case what I have proposed
following the European Council meeting on 15 to the British team, that we hold intensive
October, stating that his team would continue negotiations in the little time that we
intensive discussions over the coming weeks, have left in order to reach the agreement
and outlining that the EU remained steadfast we hope for by the end of October. Not
on some of the key issues for the negotiations: at any price, but the agreement that we
hope for and of course that Europe’s
Our positions have been crystal clear leaders hope for as well.
from day one of this negotiation. If you
want access to our market of 450 million The European Parliament President, David
people, there must be a level playing field. Sassoli, was also in attendance and restated
There must be free and fair competition. the “not at any cost” mantra:
It is clear from today’s meeting that there
is a very full unity between all Member Whilst the pace of the talks has picked
States. We will remain calm, united, up recently and the EU will continue to
determined. negotiate until the last possible moment,
I am concerned about the lack of clarity
There has been genuine, good progress from the UK side, as the end of the year
on a number of topics, as I explained at is fast approaching. An agreement is in
the European Council, and on which we the best interests of both sides, but, as I
see the prospect of agreement. We are have said before, this can never be at any
almost in a position to draw up and flesh cost. I hope that our UK friends use the
out this agreement. There are a number very narrow window of opportunity that
of topics over which there remain not remains to work constructively towards
only question marks, but also points of overcoming our differences.
difference. And there are three topics on
which the gap is too wide at present. In As regards the Withdrawal Agreement,
order for me to say now, at this moment, we fully expect the UK to uphold the
that there is a prospect of a deal, we rule of law and honour the commitments
need to change the outlook to head that were painstakingly negotiated and
ratified by both sides. Peace and stability
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on the island of Ireland and the Good President Charles Michel Visit to
Friday Agreement are at stake. Nothing Dublin, 8 October 2020
that jeopardises these achievements
can be accepted, and we have a shared The President of the European Council, Charles
interest in and commitment to avoiding a Michel, visited Dublin on 8 October 2020 for
hard border. We therefore urge the UK to talks with the Taoiseach, Micheál Martin.
honour its undertakings and, as a matter
of urgency, remove the controversial On the topic of Brexit, the Taoiseach expressed
provisions from the Internal Market Act. his hope that it would still be possible to find a
This would constitute a step towards means to bridge the “considerable gaps” that
restoring the trust which is fundamental remain between the EU and UK positions: “As
to our future relationship. EU leaders have stated repeatedly, we want
an agreement, but it cannot be at any price.
Prime Minister Johnson Call with The EU has also made it clear that the UK
Presidents Michel and von der Leyen, needs to demonstrate its commitment to full
14 October 2020 and faithful implementation of the Withdrawal
Agreement, including the Protocol on Ireland.
Prime Minister Boris Johnson spoke by phone Trust in this regard urgently needs to be
to the Presidents of the European Council and restored.”
European Commission on 14 October 2020,
ahead of the meeting of the European Council President Michel spoke to media following
on 15-16 October 2020. the meeting and had a “simple message2 to
deliver on the topic of Brexit: “The EU stands in
The UK Government subsequently issued full solidarity with Ireland and this is especially
a Statement: “The Prime Minister noted true when it comes to the full implementation
the desirability of a deal, but expressed his of the Withdrawal Agreement and the Protocol
disappointment that more progress had not on Ireland and Northern Ireland. This text
been made over the past two weeks. The has been negotiated for three years. Each
Prime Minister said that he looked forward to word, each comma has been debated for
hearing the outcome of the European Council hours and hours. It has been ratified by both
and would reflect before setting out the UK’s parties. There is simply no question on its
next steps in the light of his statement of 7 full implementation. This is a matter of law,
September.” a matter of trust. What’s at stake is what we
cherish most. The Good Friday Agreement,
Charles Michel tweeted: “We discussed the peace and stability of the island of Ireland
Brexit with Boris Johnson and Ursula von der and the integrity of the single market. This is
Leyen. On the eve of the European Council not only an Irish issue. This is a European one.
we pressed again for progress to be made
at the negotiation table: Level Playing Field, As in any such negotiation, he said, nothing is
Fisheries, Governance.” agreed until everything is agreed: “This is the
moment of truth and there is only one week
to go before the European Council on 15 and
16 October with also the occasion to discuss
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many other very important topics: the single Michel, spoke on 7 October 2020 to take stock
market, the digital agenda.” of negotiations on the future relationship
reach an agreement, underlining that a deal
Taoiseach in Dail Eireann, 7 October was better for both sides. He also underlined
2020 that, nevertheless, the UK was prepared to
end the transition period on Australia-style
The Taoiseach, Micheal Martin, reported to
terms if an agreement could not be found.
Dail Eireann on the outcome of the European
The Prime Minister reiterated that any deal
Council meeting on 1-2 October 2020. He
must reflect what the British people voted
noted that the meeting had followed a bilateral
for and that businesses and citizens needed
with President von der Leyen at which the two
certainty very soon on the terms of our
leaders shared an assessment on the state
future relationship.
of play in the negotiations and agreed that
the UK needs to engage seriously in order to President Michel tweeted: “Just talked to
bridge differences on important outstanding Boris Johnson. The EU prefers a deal, but not
issues, including fisheries, state aid and at any cost. Time for the UK to put its cards on
governance. They also discussed progress the table. European Council 15-16October.”
on the implementation of the withdrawal
agreement and, in particular, the protocol on The Prime Minister spoke with President
Ireland and Northern Ireland. Emmanuel Macron on 10 October 2020 and
with Chancellor Angela Merkel on 11 October
The meeting took place the same day as 2020. In these conversations, it was reported
the the European Commission launched by the UK side that he set out the latest state
infringement proceedings against the UK, as of play in the negotiations on the future
a result of its failure to withdraw elements of relationship between the UK and the EU: “He
its internal market Bill that are in breach of confirmed the UK’s commitment to exploring
commitments in the withdrawal agreement. every avenue to reach an agreement. He
The Taoiseach noted that, the coming weeks, underlined that a deal was better for both
the Commission would follow up in line with sides, but also that the UK was prepared to
its procedures and the UK will have the end the transition period on Australia-style
opportunity to respond: “For any deal on the terms if an agreement could not be found.”
future relationship to be possible, the UK will
have to work to restore the trust of all member Specialised Committee on Protocol:
states by implementing the withdrawal Meeting, 9 October 2020
agreement fully and in good faith.”
The European Union and the United Kingdom
Section Two: The Evolving held the third meeting of the Specialised
Debate Committee on issues related to the
Prime Minister Johnson Calls with EU implementation of the Protocol on Ireland and
Leaders Northern Ireland on 9 October 2020. An agreed
Statement was issued:
The UK Prime Minister, Boris Johnson and the
President of the European Council, Charles The EU and the UK took stock of the
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implementation work on both sides. Despite On 6 October 2020, the leaders of the main
intensified efforts by the UK to progress Christian Churches in Ireland – Roman
on the implementation of the Protocol, Catholic, Church of Ireland, Presbyterian,
significant gaps remain. Given that the Methodist, and the Irish Council of Churches
Protocol will be fully applicable in less than - issued a joint statement on Brexit. The
three months, the EU reiterated its serious statement devoted particular time to the Good
concerns on several issues including, in Friday Agreement, the need to preserve peace
particular, the crucial need to accelerate on the island of Ireland, and the importance of
work to ensure that border control posts are collaboration for the difficult times ahead:
operational by 1 January 2021 in Northern
As Church Leaders on the island of
Ireland, the importance to distinguish VAT
Ireland, we have welcomed the important
numbers for traders from Northern Ireland
commitment of both parties in the
from other taxable persons in the rest of
negotiations to the protection of the Good
the UK, as well as customs issues where Friday/Belfast Agreement in all its parts.
the UK still has work to do. It is our hope that the Agreement might
serve as a source of inspiration and a
The Commission called once again on the
foundation to build upon as we continue
UK to urgently intensify its preparations for to work through the Brexit process.
the full application of the Protocol. The EU
requested the UK to swiftly provide a detailed The Agreement is rightly regarded as
timeframe for the full implementation of all an act of significant global leadership in
these measures. peace and reconciliation, an achievement
that belongs not only to the people of
The parties also continued their discussions Northern Ireland, but to the British and
on the decisions the Joint Committee is to Irish people and Governments, with
take before 1 January 2021. This includes the support of the EU and friends in the
pressing decisions on: the important United States.
working arrangements to ensure that
At the heart of the Good Friday
the rights of EU representatives to be
Agreement is an acknowledgement of
present when UK authorities implement
our interdependence. The Covid-19
the Protocol are operational and effective,
pandemic has further heightened our
determining ‘goods not at risk’, agricultural
awareness of the need to manage
subsidies and tariff exemptions for fisheries
risk collaboratively, not only between
in Northern Ireland. […] Given the urgency Britain and Ireland, but on a European
of the situation, the Commission urged the and wider international level. There are
UK to agree to organise at least two further other major challenges on the horizon
Specialised Committee meetings in order to that are global in nature and will require
prepare and allow for the swift adoption of nations to coordinate their responses
all outstanding Joint Committee Decisions. and demonstrate a shared vision in their
leadership. Trade agreements cannot
Irish Churches Statement on Brexit, 6 be separated from this wider network of
October 2020 relations because they have vital social
and ethical dimensions.
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Economic Considerations statistics-and-brexit/
The 2021 Budget, announced on 13 October, Con Lucey. UK Agriculture and Food Policy
set aside €5.5 billion across two contingency Post Brexit: An Irish Perspective. https://
funds – a recovery fund of €3.4 billion and www.iiea.com/brexit/brexit-blog/uk-
a contingency fund of €2.1 billion – to deal agriculture-and-food-policy-post-brexit-an-
with uncertainties arising from Covid-19 and irish-perspective/
Brexit.
Section Three: Background
The ESRI has warned that a no-deal Brexit Material and Further Reading
with the imposition of tariffs would halve
economic growth next year. Growth would fall Background Material
from a predicted 6.3 per cent to closer to 3
per cent as a result of reduced merchandise GOV.UK PM Statement on negotiations with
trade with the UK, notably in the food and the EU: 16 October 2020. https://www.gov.
drink sector. uk/government/speeches/pm-statement-on-
brexit-negotiations-16-october-2020.
The Government is prepared to subsidise direct
ferry services to mainland Europe in the post- European Council Conclusions on EU-
Brexit trading environment, in anticipation UK relations, 15 October 2020. https://
of disruption of the UK land bridge. Rosslare w w w. c o n s i l i u m . e u r o p a . e u / e n / p r e s s /
Europort is reported to be in intensive talks press-releases/2020/10/15/european-
with shipping interests to provide a direct council-conclusions-on-eu-uk-relations-15-
ferry service to continental Europe. october-2020/
The consultants EY have reported that European Council Remarks by President
financial services firms in the UK have moved Charles Michel following the first working
some 7,500 employees and more that €1.3 session of the European Council, 15 October
trillion of assets to EU countries ahead of 2020. https://www.consilium.europa.eu/
Brexit. About 400 relocations were announced en/press/press-releases/2020/10/15/
in September, with Dublin, Luxembourg and remarks-by-president-charles-michel-
Frankfurt and the main destinations. following-the-first-working-session-of-the-
european-council
IIEA Papers
European Commission Opening
The IIEA has published three further papers
statement by Michel Barnier at the joint
of relevance to the evolving Brexit story:
press conference with President Michel
following the European Council meeting
Blair Horan. Brexit and the Implementation
of 15 October 2020. https://ec.europa.
of the Protocol on Ireland/Northern
eu/commission/presscorner/detail/en/
Ireland. https://www.iiea.com/wp-content/
STATEMENT_20_1933
uploads/2020/10/Blair-Horan-_-NI-Protocol-
Paper-Final.pdf
European Parliament Opening Remarks
Tom Ferris. The Latest Northern Ireland ports by European Parliament President Sassoli at
Traffic Statistics and Brexit. https://www.iiea. the European Council meeting, 15 October
com/brexit/northern-ireland-ports-traffic- 2020. https://europarl.europa.eu/the-
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president/en/newsroom/sassoli-at-euco-it- following the third meeting of the
is-up-to-you-to-unlock-these-negotiations Specialised Committee on Ireland and
Northern Ireland Protocol, 10 October 2020.
GOV.UK Readout of PM phone call with https://ec.europa.eu/info/publications/
European Commission President Ursula von press-statement-following-third-meeting-
der Leyen and European Council President specialised-committee-ireland-and-
Charles Michel, 14 October 2020. https:// northern-ireland-protocol_en
www.gov.uk/government/news/readout-of-
pm-phone-call-with-european-commission- GOV.UK PM call with President of the
p r e s i d e n t- u r s u l a -vo n - d e r- l e ye n -a n d - European Council Charles Michel: 7
european-council-president-charles-michel October 2020. https://www.gov.uk/
government/news/pm-call-with-president-
European Commission Invitation letter of-the-european-council-charles-michel-7-
by President Charles Michel to the members october-2020
of the European Council ahead of their
meeting on 15-16 October 2020, 13 October GOV.UK PM call with President Macron:
2020. https://www.consilium.europa.eu/ 10 October 2020. https://www.gov.uk/
en/press/press-releases/2020/10/13/ government/news/pm-call-with-president-
invitation-letter-by-president-charles- macron-10-october-2020.
michel-to-the-members-of-the-european-
council GOV.UK PM call with Chancellor Merkel
of Germany: 11 October 2020. https://
European Council Remarks by President www.gov.uk/government/news/pm-call-
Charles Michel at the joint press conference with-chancellor-merkel-of-germany-11-
with Taoiseach Micheal Martin, 8 October october-2020.
2020. https://www.consilium.europa.eu/
en/press/press-releases/2020/10/08/ Withdrawal Agreement Joint
remarks-by-president-charles-michel-at- Committee. Provisional Agenda for 4th
the-joint-press-conference-with-micheal- Ordinary Meeting. https://ec.europa.
martin-taoiseach-of-ireland eu/info/sites/info/files/brexit_files/info_
site/provisional_agenda_for_4th_wajc_
European Parliament Speech by Vice- meeting_-_19_october_2020.pdf
President Maros Sefcovic, European
Parliament,6 October 2020. https://www. Irish Times EU and British negotiators
ec.europa.eu/commission/presscorner/ agree to continue trade talks next week. IT,
detail/en/SPEECH_20_1832 17 October 2020. https://www.irishtimes.
com/news/world/uk/eu-and-british-
UK Conservative Party Prime Minister negotiators-agree-to-continue-trade-talks-
Boris Johnson speech to Party Conference, 6 next-week-1.4383245
October 2020. https://www.conservatives.
com/news/boris-johnson-read-the-prime- BBC Brexit: Trade talks with the EU are over,
ministers-keynote-speech-in-full says No 10. BBC, 17 October 2020. https://
www.bbc.com/news/uk-politics-545566897
European Commission Press statement
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Observer Experts claim Boris Johnson’s Irish Times Brussels confident post-Brexit
‘thin’ EU deal will cause major economic trade deal is increasingly likely. IT, 17 October
upset. Observer, 18 October 2020. https:// 2020. https://www.irishtimes.com/news/
w w w. t h e g u a r d i a n . c o m / p o l i t i c s / 2 0 2 0 / world/uk/brussels-confident-post-brexit-
oct/18/experts-claim-boris-johnsons-thin- trade-deal-is-increasingly-likely-1.4383290
eu-deal-will-cause-major-economic-upset
RTE European leaders gather for two-day
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politics-54566897
RTE Brexit negotiations set to continue despite
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Telegraph EU countries preparing for no-deal
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‘no deal’ gauntlet to EU. FT, 17 October 2020. October 2020. https://www.telegraph.co.uk/
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Irish Times Downing St accuses EU of
The Guardian The Guardian View on Brexit
ending trade talks by taking uncompromising
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commentisfree/2020/oct/14/the-guardian-
accuses-eu-of-ending-trade-talks-by-taking-
view-on-brexit-talks-not-too-lat-for-realism
uncompromising-position-1.4383277
Telegraph Brexit negotiations will continue
Telegraph For all the angry talk from both
beyond Boris Johnson’s October 15.
sides, a Brexit trade deal is coming down the
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track. Telegraph, 17 October 2020. https://
telegraph.co.uk/politics/2020/10/09/brexit-
www.telegraph.co.uk/politics/2020/10/16/
negotiations-will-continue-beyond-boris-
angry-talk-sides-deal-coming-track/
johnsons-october/
Irish Times Brexit: EU says UK needs to
compromise to break talks deadlock. IT, Politico Forget fake Brexit deadlines, Michel
16 October 2020. https://www.irishtimes. Barnier must retire in January. Politico, 8
com/news/world/europe/brexit-eu-says- October 2020. https://www.politico.eu/
uk-needs-to-compromise-to-break-talks- article/forget-fake-brexit-deadlines-michel-
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barnier-must-retire-in-january/
BBC Brexit: EU leaders call for UK trade talks
to continue. BBC, 16 October 2020. https:// The Guardian Is it decision day on Brexit
www.bbc.com/news/uk-politics-54557585 talks – and what is still to be resolved?
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Guardian, 15 October 2020. https://www. www.dfa.ie/news-and-media/press-
theguardian.com/politics/2020/oct/15/is-it- releases/press-release-archive/2020/october/
decision-day-on-brexit-talks-and-what-is- minister-coveney-opening-remarks-to-joint-
still-to-be-resolved committee-on-eu-affairs
Financial Times European businesses urge Department of Foreign Affairs Remarks
UK trade deal to avoid ‘brutal split’. FT, 15 by Minister Coveney to Joint Committee
October 2020. https://www.ft.com/content/ on the implementation of the Good Friday
e9706b10-b2d8-4911-9b91-350bc9f0996b Agreement, 15 October 2020. https://www.
dfa.ie/news-and-media/press-releases/press-
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news/2020/1006/1169711-brexit/
Tony Connelly Brexit talks: Glimmer
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