Can 5G save Australia from the NBN catastrophe? - Huawei ...
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Can 5G save Australia from the NBN catastrophe?
5G will be the main enabler of the 4th Industrial Revolution
Mobile Industry's Contribution to GDP Will
Increase Year by Year 5G will drive 5.3% GDP growth in 15 years
$ billion，% GDP 2018
Agriculture & Mining
4.8%
4.8%
4.8%
4.7% Professional&
4.6% Financial Services 6%
4.6% $2810
$2710 ICT & Trade
$2480 $2600 14%
$2370 29%
$2270
5.3%
$570 $590 5G Contribution 16%
$540 $560 by 2034
Public Services
$500 $520
$1140 $1190 $1230 $1270 $1310 $1360
35%
2018 2019 2020 2021 2022 2023
Manufacturing & Utilities
Mobile Indirect Related Industry GDP Contribution
Source：GSMA Intelligence，Feb,2019
Source：GSMA Intelligence，2019年2月
What are the actual Network
REQUIREMENTS
CLOUD
AR/VR
CLOUD
GAMING
CLOUD
PC
all H.264 codec based
3
NBN project – The technology flaw
Corporate Plan 2019 – 2022
Committed Peak Wholesale DL speeds [1]:
50 Mb/s to 90% of fixed-line network*
25 Mb/s to all premises (buildings)
• P3 2018 (MN Mb/s): Telstra (98), Optus (93), VHA (86)
• Fixed/Mobile Speed Ratio = 30 (ideal**), 0.25 (actual)
20dB
Goal by 2020:
8 mn homes and businesses connected by 2020
• 25 mn people in 2019 12+ mn households (58%) by 2036
*) The NBN was originally set to be delivered via Fibre to the Premises (FTTP) technology to 93% of all
premises, however this would be later changed to FTTN/C with copper and HFC with coaxial cables
**) Huawei single-wavelength 50G PON (50/25 Gb/s) for 5G (10Gb/s/cell) and Cloud
Gaming, PC, AR/VR (>100Mb/s – 1Gb/s,
NBN project – The business model flaw
Invested $51* billion [1] and achieved [2]:
a) ~1 million of its fixed-broadband end-user premises get less than 50Mbps [3]
b) ~200,000 fibre-to-the-node (FTTN) services aren’t hitting minimum peak speeds of 25Mbps [4]
*) Much higher due to Telstra overhead of $100 bn in long-term lease payments
B2B2B2C = $151 billion! What could You
have actually built
Telstra for that $151 bn?
$
nbn™
$
RSP
$
U
Overbooking!
RSP = Retail Service Providers (iinet, Telstra, Optus, etc.)
U = Consumer or enterprise customer (end-user)
NBN Project – The mixed-technology flaw, e.g. FWN
Spent ~ $4 billion on FWN (Distance Tx – Premise up to 14 km) [5,6]:
a) ~ 280,000 activated end-users (@ ~$10,000 / household) [7]
b) 6 Mb/s (of expected up to 50 Mb/s) to many end-user premises at peak-time [8]
Feedback:
- In some cases, better experience with ADSL before we decided to spend $51 billion on the NBN
- Backhaul congestion between NBN’s Fixed Wireless towers and its Transit Network
Tx Premise
The shorter wavelengths of mmWave is not an option!
The figures show the difference
• Restricted distance at which mmWaves can 100Mb/s in “splat” (propagation) between
28 GHz (mmWave) and 3.4
propagate time- and cost-intensive endeavor GHz (sub-6) deployments on
the same pole height in a
requiring a massive infrastructure build-out (cost) [11] relatively flat part of Los
Angeles (blue represents
• Easily blocked by obstacles like walls, foliage, and 100Mbps speed, red represents
1Gbps speed)
the human body itself No ways to maintaining
1Gb/s
connectivity across a broader area in Australia 100Mb/s
Using a database of utility poles in the United States, a study indicated that it
would require approximately 13 million pole-mounted base stations and $400B
dollars in CAPEX to deliver 100 Mb/s edge rate at 28GHz to 72% of the U.S.
population, and up to 1Gb/s to approximately 55% of the U.S. population [11]
1Gb/s
26 GHz challenges = 28 GHz challenges!
Examples of negative effects on Australia
1. ‘Digital divide’ denying access to revolutionary technology: from Cloud PC, Gaming, AR/VR,
streaming services, to Tele-healthcare, education and Industry 4.0
2. Prevented multiple industries to capitalise on an ever-increasing field of digital
technologies, e.g. emerging Australian gaming market ($100 million/year)
3. Many technology companies moving overseas to meet the demand of
increasing expectations that the Australian government cannot meet domestically
4. The rest of the world continues to pioneer new technologies and modes for
the coming digital era that Australia cannot adapt with
5. One thing is for sure: The Fourth-Industrial Revolution is here, and
unless Australia adapts to the ever-increasing global demands that digital
disruption is predicted to bring to the world, we may find ourselves
losing our position (3rd) as one of the world’s leaders in innovation!
Link
Questions
• How did this happen?
• What could have been done differently?
• Has anyone been held accountable for it?
• Can 5G save Australia from the NBN
catastrophe? Or will it be another NBN disaster?
• Why is that matter to Huawei being banned from
NBN (08/2012) and 5G (08/2018)?
Way forward – Example for outer-suburban and regional areas /
• NBN Co cannot do this whole thing by itself:
a) No more money
b) 1Gb/s currently priced > $350/month [11]
• New ways for outer-suburban and regional areas, where
the FWN and FTTN don’t meet requirements:
• More of Mobile Black Spot Program: Government’s $380 mn
$760 million, delivering 1,000+ new base stations across Australia
• New PPP involving state and local governments, mobile network
operators (Optus, Telstra and Vodafone), businesses and local
communities [10]Huawei 5G Paves the Way to Large Scale Commercialization
50+ 150,000+
Commercial Contracts Shipments
Europe 28
Asia Pacific 6
11
M-MIMO
Middle East
Americas 4 Africa
1 OthersLeading in 5G Research & Standardization Contribution
16000+ Contributions of 5G No.1 in Essential Patents Declaration in 5G
16000+ 3GPP 5G NR Contributions Intel
Sharp
4%
CATT OPPO
3% 3%
InterDigital
1%
others
1%
5%
Huawei
ZTE
8% 20%
Qualcomm
10% Nokia
All contributions 12%
9m
Samsung
10% LGE
print as A4 Ericsson 12%
11%
Source: ETSI
From 2015Q1-2018Q4
More than 2,570 patents!Sunrise Overwhelming 5G Commercial Promotions
https://www.huawei.com/en/press-events/news/2019/4/huawei-sunrise-5g-fwa-pioneer-users-switzerland
“Full Service Competitiveness” with 5G FWA
99 % 30 Mbps 45 %
FBB Coverage Lowest FBB Speed Copper Based FBB
152
1. Switzerland is one of the most advanced FBB market cities/villages
2. Almost half of the FBB is copper based, difficult to replace with with 5G by
fiber, hence speed upgrade is bottleneck the end of
March 2019
5G Air Fiber for 70% of non-fiber covered areas Device:
TV
Internet TV Phone
5G CPE2.0
Remaining 70%: 5G Air Fiber FTTH planned FTTH
Huawei Xiaomi Oppo
covered Mate 20 X Mi Mix 3 RenoBT/EE Launched 5G in 6 Cities, Leading in 5G UK Market https://www.t3.com/news/ee-5g-network-launches-today-prices-starts-from-pound32-a-month • 5G services to mobile customers in six cities: London, Birmingham, Manchester, Cardiff, Edinburgh, and Belfast • EE plans to roll out service to 10 more cities in the area by the end of 2019. (More than 100 new sites to 5G every month.) • 5G services as a NSA deployment on top of its 4G network offering access to both networks with “unprecedented” download speeds • Band n78 with download speeds of 150 Mbps for most customers. (Some customers may see up to 1 Gbps speeds.) • 5G-capable smartphones from OnePlus, Oppo and LG to customer • 5G access costs customers £54 ($68) per month for 10 GB of data, or £74 ($94) per month for 120 GB • Phase 2 in 2022, with 5G core network, and Phase 3 slated for 2023, with URLLC, network slicing and multigigabit-per-second speeds Link
Huawei 5G Innovation: 3-Best & 2-Leading
5G technology and product maturity
Massive MIMO 64/32TRx UL/DL Decoupling Cloud Native Core 10Gbps MW
10 years 95% shipment share 200W+200MHz 73% Enhancement（BT& EE） 60% NFV 1st SBA Prototype
Best 5G commercial readiness & performance
Pre-commercial First IoDT Voice call
30 Operators 10 big Cities
Best 5G end-to-end partner
Core Transport RAN Device
Peak Throughput
5G Network in Dense
Urban
Outdoor Everywhere
2Gbps Throughput Indoor Experience
15Two ways for Low Cost Rural Coverage – The Huawei RuralStar*/Lite
RuralStar/Lite Site, Centralized Coverage
Macro Site, Wider Coverage
RuralStar
Lite Site
Small Village
Village Country Side/Rural
Village
A: Improve Macro Sites Efficiency, Expand Coverage
B: RuralStar/Lite Site for Accurate Coverage of Village or Road, Low Cost and Fast Deployment
*) RuralStar Solution Won GSMA 2018
‘Best Mobile Innovation for Emerging Markets’ AwardHuawei the wins the most at MWC: 6 Awards
Best Mobile Technology Best Mobile Innovation for Best Mobile Operator Service for
Breakthrough Automotive Consumers
- Huawei 5G RAN Innovation - Huawei for C-V2X Solution - Sunrise & Huawei HD/UHD Video Service
over 5G FWA
Best Smartphone Best New Connected Mobile Device @ Best Mobile Innovation for Smart Cities
- Huawei Mate 20 Pro MWC2019 - Gaoqing Government & Huawei for Adding “Smart”
- Huawei Mate X to “Happy”Conclusions 1. Huawei is celebrating its 15th year of business in Australia and we are committed to care deeply about the future of this country 2. Makes no sense for Australia to continue to exclude the world’s leading 5G technology provider, when we could deliver what Australians so badly need 3. Huawei has been the vendor of choice to 5G launches from both EE in the UK and Vodafone in Spain – with plenty more to come in due course: 5G is ON! 4. We need to forget mmWave, Satellites and adopt a different approach to delivering universal high-speed broadband* and doing nothing is not an option! *) Cyber Security can be handled and shall be managed, regardless Link
Thank you!
References http://huaweihub.com.au/david-soldani-talks-5g-in-australia/ [1] Page 38 - NBN Corporate Plan https://www.nbnco.com.au/content/dam/nbnco2/2018/documents/media-centre/corporate-plan-report-2019-2022.pdf [2] IT News report on Senate Estimates answer https://www.itnews.com.au/news/nbn-co-reveals-uneven-spread-of-50mbps-capable-premises-520166 [3] Report in IT News https://www.itnews.com.au/news/nbn-co-reveals-183000-fttn-users-dont-get-over-25mbps-523378 [4] The Monthly https://www.themonthly.com.au/issue/2017/april/1490965200/paddy-manning/network-error [5] NBN Media Release details additional $800 million investment in Fixed Wireless https://www.nbnco.com.au/content/dam/nbnco2/2018/documents/media-centre/media-release-fixed-wireless-plus.pdf [6] Page 64 - NBN Corporate Plan https://www.nbnco.com.au/content/dam/nbnco2/2018/documents/media-centre/corporate-plan-report-2019-2022.pdf [7] $4 billion total investment divided by 282,000 activated Fixed Wireless end-user premises [8] IT News report based on NBN Senate submission. https://www.itnews.com.au/news/nbn-co-has-under-500-congested-fixed-wireless-cells-488914 [9] IT News report based on NBN Senate submission https://www.itnews.com.au/news/nbn-cos-wireless-congestion-likely-worse-than-reported-523601 [10] https://spirit.com.au/horsham/ [11] Report in The Australian https://www.theaustralian.com.au/business/technology/one-gigabitpersecond-nbn-connections-find-few-takers/news-story/3d183cfe641662a07d957ecad9ef113c [12] https://media.defense.gov/2019/Apr/03/2002109302/-1/-1/0/DIB_5G_STUDY_04.03.19.PDF
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