China's role in COVID-19 - Diplomat Magazine
←
→
Page content transcription
If your browser does not render page correctly, please read the page content below
FEN HAMPSON’S FORECAST ON THE WORLD ECONOMY
SUMMER 20 | JUL–SEPT
China’s role in COVID-19
INTERNATIONAL MEDIA REPORTS AND CHINA’S OFFICIAL RESPONSES
PLUS
IRAN’S NEW HARD
WAR STANCE
AND
SAVING THE
WORLD’S SEEDS
Robert Rotberg: A report on Africa’s pandemic performance
Q & A with Canada’s chief science adviser
How to staycation this summer
ESTABLISHED 1989 CDN $9.95
Books on life in Putin’s Russia and on Donald Trump
PM 40957514
AFTER INAUGURATION | DI SPATC H E S diplomat and international canada 1
#
1 in Ottawa *
N T
RO
RF
TE
WA
WINDING WAY - $3,750,000 ROCKCLIFFE PARK - $3,490,000 DUNROBIN SHORES - $3,200,000
N T
RO
RF
TE
WA
ROCKCLIFFE PARK - CALL FOR PRICE ROCKCLIFFE PARK - $2,390,000 MANOTICK - $2,350,000
L D L D
SO SO
ROCKCLIFFE PARK - EXCLUSIVE ROTHWELL HEIGHTS - $1,950,000 ROCKCLIFFE PARK - $1,550,000
CENTRETOWN - $1,450,000 BYWARD MARKET - $950,000 BYWARD MARKET - $649,000 OR $3,200/M
Discover what working with Ottawa’s best can do for you!
613.744.6697
2 Charles Sezlik, Dominique Laframboise, Sara Adam Sales Reps. and Trystan Andrews, Broker.
* CHARLES SEZLIK - #1 ROYAL LEPAGE REALTOR IN EASTERN ONTARIO, 43 +/- OFFICES, 1150 +/- REALTORS, BASED ON GROSS CLOSED COMMISSIONS 2016, 2017, 2018, 2019.
.
One of the best Hilton hotels in North America, and
the ultimate five-star hotel in the greater Gatineau-Ottawa region.
• 349 guest rooms including 37 suites • Spa, fitness centre, indoor & outdoor pools
• Four restaurants and bars • Complimentary outdoor parking
• Cigar lounge and nightclub • Complimentary Wi-Fi
819-790-6444 • 1-866-488-7888 • info@hiltonlacleamy.com • lacleamy.hilton.com
3
The World in Canada
Volume 31, Number 3
PUBLISHER
Table of
Donna Jacobs
CONTENTS
PUBLISHER IN MEMORIAM
Neil Reynolds
EDITOR
Jennifer Campbell
ART DIRECTOR
Paul Cavanaugh DIPLOMATICA|
BOOKS COLUMNIST Cartoons from around the world . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 8
Christina Spencer Fen Hampson: COVID-19 will depress global economy . . . . . . . . . . . . 14
Questions Asked: Chief science adviser on COVID-19 . . . . . . . . . . . . . 18
FOOD COLUMNIST
Margaret Dickenson Notes from the Field: War Child's virus response in Uganda . . . . . . . 22
Trade Winds: Cuba, Japan and Malaysia . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 24
STAFF PHOTOGRAPHER
Ülle Baum
Diplomatic Agenda: Switzerland’s effective COVID response . . . . . . 28
CONTRIBUTING WRITERS
Tristan Bragaglia-Murdock
Josefina De La Caridad Vidal Ferreiro DISPATCHES|
Fen Hampson
Yasuhisa Kawamura
China's COVID response
Patrick Langston What the media has reported and what China has stated . . . . . . . . . . 30
Fatima Meite
Salome Meyer
Laura Neilson Bonikowsky Iran's pivot to a "hard war" stance . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 38
Robert I. Rotberg Seed conservation: How the world prepares for the worst . . . . . . . . . 46
Joe Varner Africa: The continent fares well in curbing COVID . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 56
Nikki Whaites
Canada's lost Security Council bid could be a blessing . . . . . . . . . . . . . 59
CONTRIBUTING PHOTOGRAPHERS Estonia's e-government system worked well in pandemic . . . . . . . . . . 60
Mike Beedell
Larry Dickenson
Margaret Dickenson
Ashley Fraser
James Park DELIGHTS|
Books: On life in Putin's Russia and Trump's "stable genius" . . . . . . . 64
BUSINESS MANAGEMENT Entertaining: The tastes of summer with steak and shortcake . . . . . . . 71
Jessie Reynolds O’Neil
Wine: Why biodiversity matters . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 76
WEBMASTER Envoys’ album . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 80
Gilles Laberge, www.redrocket.ca
Photo finish: A walrus shows his tusks . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 96
DISTRIBUTION
DIGNITARIES|
Pierre Pagé and Peixian Han
OFFICE LIAISON New arrivals in the diplomatic corps . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 78
Sharleen Tattersfield
ADVERTISING INQUIRIES
Contact Donna Jacobs, donnajacobs@gmail.com,
DIPLOMATIC LISTINGS . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 86
(613) 794-7654.
DIPLOMAT & INTERNATIONAL CANADA DESTINATIONS|
SUBMISSIONS: Diplomat & International Canada Patrick Langston on summer adventures around Ottawa . . . . . . . . . . 90
welcomes submissions. Contact Jennifer Campbell
editor@diplomatonline.com or (613) 291-2901.
ADDRESS: P.O Box 1173, Station B
Ottawa, Ont., Canada K1P 5R2 COVER PHOTO: REPUBLIC OF KOREA
Phone: (613) 794-7654
E-mail: info@diplomatonline.com
www.diplomatonline.com ALL RIGHTS RESERVED. The publisher assumes no responsibility for unsolicited material.
No part of this magazine may be reproduced in any form without written permissionfrom the publisher. © 2007
Published by Sparrow House ISSN 1190-8343 Publication Mail # 40957514. Return undeliverable Canadian copies to: Diplomat Magazine, P.O.
Enterprises Inc.
Box 1173, Station B, Ottawa, ON K1P 5R2
THE VIEWS EXPRESSED IN THE ARTICLES ARE THOSE OF THE AUTHORS.
4 SUMMER 2020 | JUL-AUG-SEPT
AFTER INAUGURATION |DI PLOM AT I CA
New from
University of Toronto Press
“Presents an
engaging
overview of 215
“Should be read by anyone who cares
years of federal
Canadian
about how journalism and democracy
intersect.”
– Tony Burman, The Toronto Star
party history that
is chronologically
organized and
easy to follow.”
David McGrane,
University of Saskatchewan
@utpress | utorontopress.com
diplomat and international canada 5
D I P L O M AT I C A| EDITOR’S NOTE
Canadian team that successfully garnered
a UN Security Council seat in 1999, says CONTRIBUTORS
losing the seat in 2020 may actually work
out for Canada. Laura Neilson Bonikowsky
Finally, my story on e-government in
Estonia also touches on COVID-19. When
the virus struck, tiny Estonia was fine be-
Jennifer cause most of its government services —
Campbell
save marrying, divorcing and selling real
estate — have been done online for years.
COVID-19 still dominates School curriculums are online, its health-
care documents are online as is each resi-
C
OVID-19 continues to consume dent’s digital identity. Indeed, Estonia was
us and affect all aspects of our the first country in the world that held Laura Neilson Bonikowsky currently
lives — from our home life to our digital elections — back in 2007. It's some- writes and gardens in Alberta. She
economic well-being. As such, the virus is thing presumptive American Democratic earned her master’s in English at the
also dominant in our July issue. We start nominee Joe Biden might want to look University of Alberta, then took her
our coverage with a story on China. Ac- into before November. Poland actually put passion for writing and learning to
cusations have been hurled at the country off an election because of COVID, some- The Canadian Encyclopedia, where she
where COVID-19 first surfaced. Defence thing Estonians wouldn’t have to do. ultimately became the associate edi-
expert Joe Varner takes journalistic ac- Up front, columnist Fen Hampson tor. After 12 years with that publica-
counts of five different acccusations and examines the effect the virus will have tion, she took the leap into freelance
presents them, along with the official on the global economy. He writes that work, writing for diverse audiences
word from Chinese authorities. there's no question China’s leadership and valiantly pursuing perfect syn-
Iran was a hotspot for COVID-19 in the failed in getting information to the rest tax. She has been a proud contributor
early days, but we take a look at the coun- of the world, thereby finding itself at the to Diplomat since 2005.
try's seeming new approach to dealing root of a global pandemic. And he admits
with its enemies. As Varner writes, Iran’s some investors are moving on, but he still Joe Varner
regime has moved from a soft- to a hard- thinks China will remain a global trade
war stance and made the U.S. its enemy and investment hub simply because of its
No. 1. Varner also examines the military size and continuing economic heft.
capacities of Iran versus the U.S. Up front, we also have my interview
Also in our Dispatches section, Laura with Mona Nemer, Canada's chief science
Neilson Bonikowsky brings us an interest- adviser and the woman Prime Minister
ing story on seed storage. This was a story Justin Trudeau goes to first when he
she proposed before COVID-19 struck, but needs advice on matters of science. She
it seems ever more relatable now that the explains that Canada is doing its part to
world is in what often seems like an apoc- wrestle the virus. Joe Varner is a consultant on defence,
alyptic reality. There are seed vaults all In Delights, columnist Christina Spen- diplomacy, strategic intelligence,
over the world and Neilson Bonikowsky cer writes about books on life in Putin’s military operations and is author of
offers a look some of them, perhaps none Russia and one of the latest on Donald Canada’s Asia-Pacific Security Di-
more interesting than the Svalbard Global Trump. Food columnist Margaret Dick- lemma. He served as director of pol-
Seed Vault, which is built into a mountain, enson offers four fun summer recipes, icy to Peter MacKay from 2008 to
an archipelago between mainland Norway including one for tempura-battered mush- 2014, when he was minister of na-
and the North Pole. rooms st uffed wit h escargots. Wine tional defence, minister of justice and
Moving over to Africa, columnist Rob- columnist Tristan Bragaglia-Murdock attorney general. Varner also served
ert I. Rotberg writes about how Africa has weighs in on wines that are sustainably as a faculty member with the Ameri-
largely evaded COVID-19 — or is at least packaged, while Patrick Langston offers can Military University from 2001 to
doing much better than its other continen- up some fun COVID-friendly travel op- 2009 and again from 2015 to 2019,
tal counterparts. Rotberg notes that strong tions for summer jaunts near Ottawa. specializing in teaching homeland
lockdown measures probably curbed the A note about format: This issue is on- security and intelligence studies. He
spread and hopes that Africa has finally line only as most offices remain closed. is a research fellow of the Conference
drawn the lucky straw. of Defence Associations Institute and
D a v i d K i l g o u r, w h o w a s o n t h e Jennifer Campbell is editor of Diplomat. Inter-University Seminar on Armed
Forces and Society.
U P F R ON T
In our cover story on the role China played in the
spread of COVID-19, defence consultant Joe Varner
took five subject areas and researched the inter-
national media's coverage of them, as well as the
Chinese government's official statements. Varner's
coverage begins on page 31.
6 SUMMER 2020 | JUL-AUG-SEPT
D I P L O M AT I C A| CARTOONS
Political commentary from around the world
COVID-19 and restrooms, by Dave Granlund, U.S., PoliticalCartoons.com
Outbreak Management Team, by Arend van Dam, Masks: a miracle cure, by Dave Whamond, Canada,
PoliticalCartoons.com PoliticalCartoons.com
8 SUMMER 2020 | JUL-AUG-SEPTCARTOONS |DI PLO M AT I CA Demonizing China, by Luojie, China Daily, China China attacks India, by Paresh Nath, U.T. Independent, India China on U.K. and Hong Kong, by Paresh Nath, UAE Chinese bull riding, by Bart van Leeuwen, PoliticalCartoons.com Deflecting responsibility, by Luojie, China Daily, China diplomat and international canada 9
D I P L O M AT I C A| CARTOONS COURTESY OF CAGLECARTOONS.COM U.S. troops to leave Germany, by Patrick Chappatte, NZZ am As of July, Germany chairs the EU, by Jos Collignon, De Sonntag, Switzerland Volkskrant, The Netherlands Office of the Near Future? by Jeff Koterba, Omaha World Unhappy hour pandemic drink specials, by John Cole, The Herald, U.S. Scranton Times-Tribune, Pennsylvania, U.S. EU imposed travel ban on U.S., by Dave Whamond, Canada, Opening up, by Dave Whamond, Canada, PoliticalCartoons.com PoliticalCartoons.com 10 SUMMER 2020 | JUL-AUG-SEPT
CARTOONS |DI PLO M AT I CA Good luck, by David Fitzsimmons, The Arizona Star, Tucson, U.S. Putin bounty on GIs, by Dave Granlund, PoliticalCartoons.com Red Light, by Arcadio Esquivel, La Prensa, Panama diplomat and international canada 11
D I P L O M AT I C A| CARTOONS Minneapolis murder, by Steve Sack, The Minneapolis Star-Tribune, U.S. Macron-Merkel recovery fund, by Rainer Hachfeld, Germany, Back to School, by Dave Whamond, PoliticalCartoons.com, Canada PoliticalCartoons.com 12 SUMMER 2020 | JUL-AUG-SEPT
CARTOONS |DI PLO M AT I CA
Too Much Covid Testing, by Rick McKee, CagleCartoons.com
Mask mandate, by Bruce Plante, Tulsa World, U.S. EU Corona fund not for free, by Tom Janssen, The Netherlands
Vaccine hopes, by Steve Sack, The Minneapolis Star-Tribune, U.S. European Central Bank and German Court, by Tom Janssen, The
Netherlands
diplomat and international canada 13D I P L O M AT I C A| THE GLOBAL ECONOMY
COVID will dampen our economic future
Fen
Hampson
A
s the coronavirus took its toxic
flight around the globe and the
health crisis in many countries
— developed and developing alike —
deepened, many pundits forecast that
globalization was finally lurching to an
ignominious end. “Davos Man will need
rebranding,” one commentator cheekily
observed in Forbes business magazine,
arguing that the crisis was forcing many
companies to reshore their overseas man-
ufacturing operations. “New data shows
U.S. companies are definitely leaving
China,” blared another headline, under-
scoring mounting investor concerns about
sourcing supply chains in China, where
the pandemic originated. COVID-19 caused airlines to grind service to a halt. Its effects on the global economy will be vast.
“The coronavirus crisis has highlighted
the downsides of extensive international
integration while fanning fears of foreign- The lesson is that globalization is fragile, their Scandinavian neighbours. Sweden’s
ers and providing legitimacy for national despite or even because of its benefits.” chief epidemiologist, Anders Tegnell, the
restrictions on global trade and flows of There is, of course, a grain of truth to chief architect of the country’s response,
people,” observed Philippe Legrain in these predictions. Some investors, who smugly asserted that Sweden’s sophisti-
Foreign Policy magazine. “All sorts of busi- championed the virtues — and reaped the cated and socially complaisant population
nesses have suddenly realized the risks of spoils — of doing business in China, are would voluntarily adopt social distancing
relying on complex global supply chains pulling up their grubstakes and catching policies. When Sweden’s COVID death
that are specific not just to China — but the last flight home, while others are shift- rates soared in early June, reaching one
to particular places such as Wuhan, the ing their operations to other low-wage of the highest levels in the world on a per
epicentre of the pandemic,” and “Chinese Asia-Pacific economies such as Vietnam, capita basis, even he was forced to finally
people — and now Italians, Iranians, Ko- the Philippines or Mexico. admit that more should have been done to
reans, and others — have become widely There can be no doubt that China’s curb the spread of the virus.
seen as vectors of disease.” leadership has not acquitted itself well
Henry Farrell and Abraham Newman during this crisis. Whether the fault ulti- China market remains crucial
offered an equally Stygian prognosis in mately lies with Beijing or senior officials Nevertheless, despite all the rhetoric about
Foreign Affairs: “As critical supply chains in Hubei province or the former mayor of restructuring global supply chains to re-
break down, and nations hoard medi- Wuhan (or all three), their concealment of duce dependence on China — especially
cal supplies and rush to limit travel, the the truth meant that precious time to alert for products such as personal protective
crisis is forcing a major re-evaluation of the rest of the world and take proactive, equipment for medical workers, testing
the interconnected global economy,” they preventive measures to nip the pandemic equipment and drugs that have been
write. Furthermore, “[n]ot only has glo- in the bud, was lost. However, Western deemed critical to dealing with the pan-
balization allowed for the rapid spread leaders themselves also share the blame demic — and also shunning business with
DAVID MARK FROM PIXABAY
of contagious disease, but it has fostered for dithering or downplaying the gravity the Chinese firm Huawei for 5G networks
deep interdependence between firms and of the situation and not restricting travel because of cybersecurity concerns, China
nations that makes them more vulnerable (especially to and from China). Though will remain a crucial market for global
to unexpected shocks. Now, firms and none was as reckless as Sweden, normally trade and investment because of its sheer
nations alike are discovering just how vul- a paragon of prudence and good sense, size and economic heft. It is just too im-
nerable they are. But the lesson of the new whose leaders stumbled badly when they portant and significant to abruptly yank
coronavirus is not that globalization failed. refused to adopt quarantine measures like out of global supply chains.
14 SUMMER 2020 | JUL-AUG-SEPTTHE GLOBAL ECONOMY |DI PLO M AT I CA
In truth, China’s manufacturing know- wards and there is armed confrontation. ments don’t mark the end of globalization,
how, relative currency stability and do- Rising trade tensions are also an important but the onset of a new phase of “dis-
mestic market for goods and services part of the global economic equation — criminatory globalization.” Phase 1 of the
dwarf those of other emerging economies, not just COVID-19 and its aftermath. agreement between the U.S. and China,
including India, Brazil and Mexico. As signed on Jan. 16, 2020, includes formal
Forbes’ writer Kenneth Rapoza under- pledges to tighten rules on intellectual
scores, China also has much lower cor- property protection, pirated goods and
porate tax rates than its competitors, a A P O S T-C O V I D W O R L D the theft of commercial property, to avoid
cheaper wage structure than Brazil or currency manipulation and open China’s
Mexico, and a highly diversified manu- MAY L E AD T O A MO DE S T financial services sector to U.S. companies.
facturing sector. Whatever you need can More important, the pact commits China
be produced more quickly and cheaply in REST R UC T UR I NG O F S O ME to buy an additional US$200 billion in
China than just about anywhere else. The American goods over the next two years,
cost of moving goods within China and
GLO B AL VAL UE C HAI NS including US$40 billion to US$50 billion
overseas is also much lower than other AS GO V E R NME NT S AND in agricultural products such as soybeans,
countries because of its state-of-the art canola, fresh and frozen pork, beef, wheat,
ports and transportation system. On the CO MPANI E S R E GUL AT E corn, barley and a range of machinery, all
corruption index, China is also viewed as on preferential terms unavailable to pro-
a better place to do business than Brazil, SO UR C E S O F S UP P LY, ducers such as Canada.
Mexico, Vietnam or the Philippines, where A post-COVID world may lead to a
stifling regulations and outdated infra- E S P E C I AL LY F O R GO O DS modest restructuring of some global value
structure pose additional obstacles. chains as governments and companies
Nobody likes the current policies of DE E ME D C R I T I C AL T O regulate sources of supply, especially for
the Chinese regime vis-à-vis Hong Kong, goods deemed critical to the health of
[C I T I Z E NS ' HE ALT H. ]
Taiwan or its own ethnic minorities, es- their citizenry or to strategic sectors of
pecially the Uighurs and Tibetan people, the economy (but they will cost more,
who have suffered years of repression and which is the price of greater security). But
massive human rights abuses. The increas- However, the risks of escalating China- COVID-19’s biggest impact will be on
ingly aggressive actions of China, which U.S. trade wars to the global economy economic growth and prosperity. The U.S.
are no longer confined to the South China have been accompanied by the reverse Congressional Budget Office predicts that
Sea, are a major source of global instabil- risks of a nascent “trade truce” as China the effects of the coronavirus pandemic on
ity. All bets are off if tensions between the and the U.S. try to patch their rift with the U.S. economy alone will be felt for at
U.S. and China spiral uncontrollably up- new “managed” trade deals. These agree- least a decade, reducing economic growth
WHITE HOUSE
U.S. President Donald Trump meets with members of the banking industry to discuss the effects COVID-19 has had.
diplomat and international canada 15D I P L O M AT I C A| THE GLOBAL ECONOMY
Grocery store shelves, such as these at EsseLunga in Bergamo, Italy, were cleared out early in the pandemic as people hoarded staples.
by almost US$8 trillion and output by 3 future, neither of which is good. In the little recovery in employment by 2021. In
per cent. Consumer spending — the main OECD’s “double-hit scenario,” where the second scenario where a second wave
driver of U.S. economic growth — has there is a second wave of infections in of infections is avoided, global economic
been ravaged by job losses that are the 2020, which triggers a return to lockdown, activity will shrink by 6 per cent and
biggest the U.S. has experienced since the world economic output will fall by 7.6 unemployment levels will rise to 9.2 per
Great Depression of the 1930s, leaving per cent in 2020, before climbing back 2.8 cent, nearly double what they were before
more than 40 million unemployed. per cent in 2021. Under this scenario, the the crisis hit (5.4 per cent). Although liv-
Job losses in the Eurozone have been unemployment rate in OECD countries ing standards in this latter scenario will
equally staggering. By the end of April, will double to nearly to 10 per cent with fall less sharply than in the first scenario,
they had reached 7 per cent of the total by year’s end 2021, OECD countries will
labour force and are projected to rise to 12 have lost roughly five years’ equivalent of
per cent or higher as job-subsidy schemes income growth.
expire and the number of bankruptcies Not everyone is so gloomy. Stephen
(especially for small businesses) balloon. Poloz, the outgoing governor of the Bank
What is even more disturbing is that of Canada, sounded a rare note of cheery
youth are bearing the brunt of the pain. optimism at his final press conference
The unemployment rate for the under-25 in late May — no doubt elevated by the
age bracket in Europe has skyrocketed prospect of his own impending return to
to nearly 16 per cent and is projected to a lucrative life in the private sector. He
NICK.MON / ADAM SCOTTI/PRIME MINISTER’S OFFICE
grow, even under the best economic recov- opined that the Canadian economy would
ery scenario. likely rebound fairly quickly after the
In Canada, unemployment levels rose worst of the crisis was over — Canada’s
steadily as many businesses shuttered total economic output declined by 15 per
or were forced to close permanently. At cent (which translates into an 8.2-per-cent
the height of the pandemic, Canada’s job reduction in GDP) in the first quarter of
losses spiked at 13 per cent or roughly the year — because growth would be trig-
three million people. gered by a new wave of Schumpeterian-
style innovation as firms and employees
Gloomy and optimistic 2021 forecasts adapt to their new circumstances (includ-
The Paris-based Organisation for Eco- Prime Minister Justin Trudeau gave daily press ing working from home.)
nomic Co-operation and Development briefings between March 13 and the end of In his seminal treatise, The Great Trans-
(OECD) has offered two scenarios for the June. He scaled them back in July. formation, Austrian economist Joseph
16 SUMMER 2020 | JUL-AUG-SEPTTHE GLOBAL ECONOMY |DI PLO M AT I CA
Schumpeter described a “process of indus- history and included $1 trillion of forgiv-
trial mutation that incessantly revolution- able loans to small businesses and direct
izes the economic structure from within, payments to low- and middle-income
incessantly destroying the old one, inces- families. That figure will likely double
santly creating a new one.” Is COVID-19 as trillions more are handed over to state
one of those creative-destructive transfor- and local governments and major corpora-
mative moments as businesses and society tions, which teeter on the verge of bank-
adapt to a stay-at-home, online work cul- ruptcy. The U.S. federal government’s
ture? Maybe. But really, who knows? public debt, which was forecast to rise to
One of the biggest drags on Canada’s 100 per cent of total U.S. GDP in 2030, is
post-crisis fortunes as well as those of now expected to be 28 per cent greater
other economies will be fiscal as govern- by then. It’s not going to be pretty when
ments foist higher taxes and cut spending those bills come due.
to service the vast debt on the mountains Economists who have studied the rela-
of cash that they have been shovelling out tionship between the persistent accumula-
in the form of subsidies, business loans tion of public debt over prolonged periods
and all kinds of sundry emergency pay- and economic growth find that the mar-
ments during the pandemic. riage is ultimately an unhappy one. Un-
The International Monetary Fund constrained spending binges invariably
predicts that Canada’s debt burden post- lead to lower levels of economic activity
Public health officials administer temperature
COVID-19 will rise to 40 per cent of GDP by “crowding out” the possibilities for
checks at an airport in Bologna, Italy.
in 2020 on a national accounts basis. But private investment because of rising inter-
as Canadian economist Jack Mintz points est rates, reduced liquidity, higher taxes
out, the debt burden will actually be con- benefits, all of which have taken a COVID and greater uncertainty. That is the painful
siderably higher if you include govern- hit. Put it all together and Canada has a future we now confront.
ment employee pension plan liabilities debt burden of $3.2 trillion or roughly 166
and unfunded liabilities such as old age per cent of GDP — four times higher than Fen Hampson is Chancellor’s Professor
security, guaranteed income supplements, what the IMF calculates it to be. at Carleton University. His latest book
age-related tax credits, seniors’ drug plans, The U.S. government’s $2.3-trillion (with Derek H. Burney) is Braver Canada:
long-term care facilities and health-care stimulus package was the largest in U.S. Shaping our Destiny in a Precarious World.
Posted?
Follow me on social media:
I KN W
corporate & INternational
Moves
DIPARTIMENTO PROTEZIONE CIVILE FROM ITALIA
TeresaWhitmoreHomes.com
613.837.0000 Teresa@TeresaWhitmoreHomes.com
TERESA WHITMORE DIPLO AD_FEB20.indd 1 20-02-19 10:20 PM
diplomat and international canada 17D I P L O M AT I C A| QUESTIONS A SKED
Mona Nemer: Canada’s chief science adviser
COVID-19: ‘There was no reason
to think [Canada would] be spared
in a major way’
Mona Nemer is the chief science adviser that will support certain measures. Early
to Prime Minister Justin Trudeau, as well on, the committee identified socio-eco-
as to the minister of science and cabinet.
nomic hardship, as well as stress increase,
She’s charged with ensuring that science
possible increases in domestic violence,
factors into policy decisions and that
government science is available to the issues with homeless people, and so on.
public. Prior to taking on this role in At times, we provided specific advice
2017, after Canada had been without a and other times, we just made sure there
chief science adviser since 2008, she was a were no blind spots.
professor and vice-president of research at
the University of Ottawa and director of DM: What is your best guess for when
the school’s Molecular Genetics and Cardiac we’ll be able to start fully socializing
Regeneration Laboratory. She has a PhD in again?
chemistry from McGill University and did
MN: Oh, I don’t dare guess anything.
post-doctoral training in molecular biology
There have been criteria that have been
at the Institut de Recherche Clinique de
Montréal and Columbia University. A leader developed and accepted by various gov-
in molecular cardiology, she has discovered ernments and countries as well in terms
several genes essential for normal heart of when you ease measures. It has to do
development and function. She sat down with the situation of the epidemic itself
with Diplomat’s editor, Jennifer Campbell, — decreasing the number of cases and
to talk about COVID-19. ideally [seeing] very few new cases —
the capacity of the health-care system as
Diplomat magazine: When did you first well to cope with any eruption in COVID
start talking to the prime minister about cases, while it’s caring for non-COVID
COVID and what was your initial advice? patients as well. Unfortunately, people
Mona Nemer: Well, when things were are still getting sick from other diseases.
happening in China, towards the end The third [criteria] is the ability to test
of January, beginning of February, we and trace. That is really essential because
started talking about being prepared for this is how we’re going to be able to
[this] emerging virus, and more broadly, maintain a lid on another rapid propa-
on the science and research front. As gation. But I don’t think we’re going
soon as the government set up a special overnight from one to the other. You have
COVID-19 cabinet committee, I set up to ease measures and then look at the
the experts’ group of multidisciplinary outcome. And as for the outcome, we’re
scientists to advise us on the very fast- not going to see it for two to four weeks
progressing science of COVID. [In the — which is why most governments are
group], there are epidemiologists, math- doing that first easing and then waiting
ematicians who do modelling, psycholo- two to four weeks. That’s how long it’ll
gists, risk people as well as virology and take to see the effects in the community.
infectious disease clinicians — so it’s re-
ally multidisciplinary. DM: What is your best guess for when
we’ll be able to travel domestically and
DM: Did you expect it to develop to the internationally?
point of lockdown? MN: I think that’s another level of com-
MN: I was hoping that we wouldn’t need plexity. It’s one thing to go back to work
to do this, but realistically, just seeing and for businesses to open. And, as
what was happening in other countries, you’ve been hearing, there are a num-
there was no reason to think that we’d be ber of measures that need to be put in
spared in a major way. place — be it at stores or at workplaces.
When you start talking about commer-
DM: Do you advise on COVID relief cial travel — whether trains, planes or
measures or do you stick to the scientific airports — then you get into another new
questions? complexity because you have to watch
JAMES PARK
MN: We’ve advised on a number of the for what’s happening in each country in
issues — it’s the science and the evidence terms of the infection, but you also want
18 SUMMER 2020 | JUL-AUG-SEPTQUESTIONS A SKED |DI PLOM AT I CA
“You have to ease measures and then look at the “Vaccine development is [difficult.] It’s not an “I think we’re doing our share. Many people are
outcome.” exact science.” working very hard.”
to protect those who work in those set- siderable investments because vaccine Saturdays and Sundays. It’s tough. I’m
tings and you also want to make sure that development is very pricey. It is totally grateful to all of them. I think we’re do-
you’re not causing any new epidemics unprecedented. ing our share. Many people are working
because you’re importing cases that are DM: Are you seeing any that seem promis- very hard.
not controlled. You have the control of ing yet?
the travellers, but you also have the con- MN: It’s too early to say. There have been DM: Are you in touch with your counter-
trol of the environment. some that have been tested in animals part in China as well?
or in vitro. Phase 1 and 2 are for safety MN: In China, they don’t have a chief
DM: How optimistic are you that a vac- so that is hopeful, but even if it’s safe, science adviser. They have a minister
cine will be found? it doesn’t guarantee necessarily that it’s of science and technology, but in terms
MN: I think we’re all trying to be opti- effective, and [then there’s] the level of of science and research, I think the col-
mistic. Vaccine development is [difficult]. effectiveness and how many times do laboration has extended to all countries,
It’s not an exact science. The immunity is you need booster shots and stuff like that. including to China and, as you know,
different for different viruses and [there On the scale of pessimistic to optimistic, one of the first vaccines that has received
are different methods for the ways] that I think the developments so far are en- Health Canada approval for early-phase
we’re trying to vaccinate. Sometimes you couraging. testing is a collaborative vaccine between
luck out and sometimes you don’t. In the China and Canada. I’m actually hop-
case of HIV, we’ve been looking for a vac- DM: Do you consult with international ing that this unfortunate health crisis,
cine for what — 20-some years, at least. counterparts? which is reminding us that we’re all in it
In other cases, you manage to have a vac- MN: Absolutely. We’ve been having together, [raises awareness that] these sci-
cine [for Ebola, for example.] weekly meetings among 12 of the science ence and international collaborations are
There are over 100 vaccine develop- advisers or their equivalents. And, of critical. If we still have hotspots in one
ments, so statistically we should be able course, we have a number of bilaterals, part of the world, we’re all at the same
to have a few — a handful or more. I think depending on the issues to be discussed. sort of risk of reigniting it. I think we all
the question is once you have safe and I’m in regular touch with my counter- need to work together.
effective vaccines, it’s the next step of the parts in the U.S., U.K., France.
production — to do mass vaccination. DM: Do you see this unfortunate crisis as
So there are a multitude of scientific and DM: How many hours are you working improving that communication?
research and development challenges, but these days? MN: Scientists have always worked in-
I think the mobilization for vaccine devel- MN: All days look the same. I don’t know ternationally and the reason things are
opment is unprecedented and hopefully it any more when the weekend is. I laugh happening fast on the international front
will pan out. when people send me emails Monday with respect to research is because these
morning saying they hope I’ve had some networks and these collaborations have
DM: The way it’s happening is unprec- time to chill this weekend. Guess what? existed and have taken place in terms
edented? No, I haven’t! I’ve worked very hard all of other research initiatives. I think they
MN: It is absolutely unprecedented. You my life, but I can tell you, it’s nothing have accelerated and I think that one of
have all the major pharmaceuticals work- like the intensity we’re going through the great things about how we’re man-
JAMES PARK
ing with governments across the globe and I’m putting my entire team through aging the research output in the present
to develop and test. The private sector, this. Many of them were on task force situation is through open science and
but also governments, are putting in con- calls over, say, the Easter weekend and on because everybody is basically publishing
diplomat and international canada 19D I P L O M AT I C A| QUESTIONS ASKED
The virus had different strains. In B.C., where this closed playground is located, the strain came from China.
right away and putting out their research from the sequence. If it’s a virus that was DM: Have any Canadian scientists been
data and results, putting it up for scrutiny, manipulated, you’d expect certain signa- allowed to enter Wuhan labs to work
but also inviting collaboration so people tures and you don’t see them. Then, the with Chinese scientists, especially as the
know who’s doing what and I think it has frequency of mutation of the virus is also virus mutates?
facilitated a lot of interactions in addition consistent with what would be expected MN: I’m not aware of that since the begin-
to making available the latest results for from a normal biologic virus. ning of the pandemic, [but] I’m not aware
decision-making, to use as they man- of the activities of all Canadian researchers.
age the crisis. It’s been a very interesting DM: We do see the odd article that dis-
dynamic between research and policy agrees with that. DM: How is the virus mutating?
decisions and co-ordination of national MN: Yes, unfortunately, that’s the other MN: There are variables happening. They
and international [research] in many thing. There’s a lot of misinformation in are, so far, inconsequential in terms of the
areas. You asked about travel — Canada this pandemic because things are going proteins that are produced by the virus
can decide what we’re going to do in our very fast and there’s a lot of anxiety as and its activity, but that, of course, could
airports, but we need to coordinate with well. It’s why it’s very important for sci- change with time.
others because our planes will land there entists to be speaking up and engaging
and their people will land at our [airports] in a meaningful dialogue with the public. DM: Is it correct that there are several
so we have to work together and it needs We all need to do it in our respective strains (NY strain from Europe and Span-
to be grounded in science. countries because misinformation [is] like ish strain to the West Coast?) Which pre-
a virus. It may start somewhere, but it dominate in Canada?
DM: With which countries is Canada part- travels the planet. MN: They’re called variants rather than
nering on a vaccine — you mentioned strains; strains is a little bit different. It’s
China, but are there others? DM: What is your response to the con- actually very different in different parts
MN: We have ongoing talks with the U.K. troversial assertion that COVID-19 is a of the country. In Quebec, most of the
and we’re starting some with France. blend of genes such as SARS and HIV? cases are actually traced back to the U.S.
We’re open for business and we’re happy MN: HIV is a completely different type of and Europe. The first cases of COVID-19
to collaborate with whomever. Of course, virus. It’s a DNA virus, it’s not an RNA infections in British Columbia came from
there are things that are ongoing as well virus and SARS, of course, is the closest China, however overall, the primary
with the U.S. relative [to COVID-19]. That’s why it’s source of infections in B.C. has been
PREMEDITATED CHAOS
called SARS COV-2. And then the previ- shown to have come from Europe, East-
DM: Did the complete genetic karyotyp- ous SARS is SARS COV-1. They’re very ern Canada and Washington state. I’m
ing support or refute purely natural ori- related. Again, it’s very frequent in the not certain about Ontario.
gins of the virus? animal world to have very related genes
MN: It supports it. There’s no evidence and proteins. DM: Do you expect a vaccine in 2020?
20 SUMMER 2020 | JUL-AUG-SEPTQUESTIONS ASKED |DI PLOM AT I CA
MN: The question isn’t whether we
find a vaccine, it’s at what stage is it? If
we’re extremely lucky, and we acceler-
ate things, we may be able to start Phase
3 trials in 2020. That would be really
pushing it. I think when people ask if
we’re going to have a vaccine, we may
well have a vaccine, but it may be totally
ineffective. We might have a vaccine and
then realize that upon infection, it kills
people. There have been vaccines that are
toxic in that, instead of blocking, they can
compound the effect of infection. Are we
going to have a vaccine that immunizes
us against COVID? Everybody says if
we’re fortunate, it’s 12 to 18 months,
which means another year.
DM: What if we don’t find a vaccine?
NM: We have to qualify what never find-
ing one means. Never finding one means
our body doesn’t produce antibodies. It
could also produce antibodies that disap-
pear very quickly or that don’t protect
us enough. It’s all these different quali-
fiers that need to [be studied]. Some of
the hopeful news that has come out in The U.S. Centers for Disease Control certified this COVID test kit. Several countries are working on
terms of the immunological response to tests that will yield results more quickly.
the virus actually bodes well for natural
immunity for sure, and for being able to you’re being sociable again. Wear a mask MN: Chief science advisers and ministers
have an effective vaccine. We have some in public places where physical distanc- of science from G7 countries have orga-
encouraging signs as we start under- ing cannot be maintained. nized workshops (on microplastics, for
standing better the immune response to example) and I have been meeting regu-
the virus. DM: Are there fast tests on the near ho- larly with my international counterparts
rizon, such as urine tests, to detect the since the onset of this pandemic, but
DM: What is your assessment of a second virus? there is no formal organization. Among
and ongoing series of “waves” as little- MN: There are already a number of point- the G7 countries, only Canada, the U.K.
by-little Canada returns to normal work, of-care tests available that provide results and [although not entirely analogous] the
school and business operations. China very quickly, some in the 15- to 30-minute U.S. have a chief science adviser position.
reportedly is experiencing this. range. With many more tests in develop- There are also several international
MN: My educated guess is we’re going ment, it will be important to ensure that networks and events that convene science
to have further waves. Whether they’re they are reliably sensitive and specific be- advisers, such as the Global Forum of
waves or eruptions, we’ll be challenged fore we use them to inform public health National Advisory Councils, the Carnegie
to [curtail] them. As long as there are measures. meeting and the STS [Science and Tech-
people who are infected, the possibility nology in Society] Forum, with the most
of this spreading again is there. Remem- DM: Can a person be re-infected after active being INGSA [the International Net-
ber, initially we had only a few cases in recovery? Is antibody protection short- work of Government Science Advisers.]
Canada. This is why it’s just so important lived or is it ineffective against mutated
to have really high capacity for testing, to COVID-19 viruses? DM: What do you think of the WHO’s
trace the contact, manage the people. It is MN: It is still too early to tell. These are performance during COVID?
possible to maintain things under control, the types of questions that the research MN: It is important to have an orga-
so we don’t have to go back in lockdown, co-ordinated by the COVID-19 immunity nization like the WHO to lead global
but we have to expect that there will be task force will try to answer. Currently, health surveillance and help co-ordi-
new hotspots or eruptions in certain set- evidence from animal studies suggests nate international response to a pan-
U.S. CENTERS FOR DISEASE CONTROL
tings and [figure out how] to minimize that most recovered individuals would demic. In the months ahead, there will
them. Maintaining some of the physical have some level of immunity against the be evaluations of national and interna-
distancing is important. But the hygiene COVID-19 virus, but we don’t know how tional organizations to look for improve-
infection control is really the important long-lasting or how robust that immunity ments before a future pandemic occurs.
thing individually and at the level of is.
institutions and workplaces. Wash your DM: Do you get involved in questions
hands, [follow] sneezing etiquette, avoid DM: Is there a formal organization of such as whether Taiwan should be al-
getting too close to too many people. chief science advisers of the G7 nations, lowed observer status at the WHO?
Minimizing close contact is feasible when for example? MN: No, I am not involved. D
diplomat and international canada 21D I P L O M AT I C A| NOTES FROM THE FIELD
COVID-19 changes everything for War Child
By Nikki Whaites
Education is still closed in Uganda. This overcrowded “classroom” shows the problem with reopening schools.
T
he COVID-19 pandemic represents training has been postponed due to social- customers. This could be through internet
an existential threat to countries distancing rules. And our community sales, home delivery and contactless pick-
already responding to the conse- engagement work, which relied on large up. This will be done remotely to limit
quences of war and conflict. In particular, group meetings, is on hold. contact and abide by social-distancing
displaced people and host communities However, our team has found innova- rules.
all over the world are at heightened risk tive solutions to keep children learning Refugee children have had their edu-
as the virus continues to spread. Uganda, and youth-led businesses afloat. Rather cation repeatedly interrupted and the
for example, hosts more than 1.4 million than closing down ALP, War Child, COVID-19 lockdown is yet another ma-
refugees, making it the largest refugee- which has its headquarters in Toronto, jor blow. There’s a need for innovative
hosting country in Africa and the third- has adapted it to an at-home learning solutions. War Child will be distributing
largest in the world. A serious outbreak model, so children do not fall further be- home-learning materials to 18,000 children
of COVID-19 would be devastating in this hind while schools are closed. It has also and is working with other educational
context. developed ways to mentor and advise organizations to collect and adapt existing
Our staff at War Child tell us that the youth-led enterprises remotely, to help radio education materials that align with
atmosphere in the refugee settlements them adapt their business models to be the curriculum. These will be broadcast on
is tense. Many who used to go back and responsive to the needs of their commu- local and national radio stations.
forth to neighbouring South Sudan are nities in the face of the crisis. And they War Child is also working with the Na-
now cut off. News of the death rates in have found contactless means of bringing tional Curriculum Development Centre to
the rest of the world is terrifying for those information on the crisis to refugee com- explore ways existing curriculum materi-
forced to live in cramped conditions. munities. als could be digitized and translated into a
As with all countries, Uganda is taking To raise awareness and help people radio-based format.
firm measures to help prevent the fur- reduce the spread of the virus, our team The situation is fluid and War Child
ther spread of the disease. This includes uses public service announcements on will need to be flexible as it tracks the
closing all schools and higher education radio, printed materials, billboard post- pandemic’s progress. This is a worrying
establishments until further notice, clos- ers and SMS and WhatsApp messaging time for its staff in the field, and its team
ing all non-essential businesses, restricting to deliver advice to more than 800,000 is taking every precaution to ensure the
movement and preventing gatherings of people. The team will also be establishing safety of frontline workers. But for the
more than five people. As necessary as 120 community handwashing stations and children and families War Child serves,
these actions are, they are having a terrible distributing hygiene kits containing soap, COVID-19 is potentially a disaster on top
impact on children’s education and on facemasks and sanitizer, to 12,000 vulner- of the existing catastrophe of war and
family livelihoods. able households. displacement. We must all do everything
With the imposition of this lockdown, War Child is also working with com- we can to keep the virus from spreading in
War Child’s programs for refugees could munity members to identify small local these fragile communities. If we are truly
WAR CHILD CANADA
not continue as they had operated previ- businesses in need of support and provide in this together, we need a global response
ously. Our accelerated learning programs them micro-loans of up to $500. In addi- to this pandemic.
(ALP), which allow children to quickly tion, it will provide these business own-
catch up on missed education, cannot ers with advice and support to identify Nikki Whaites is director of international
now function in classrooms. Our youth alternative approaches to reaching their development at War Child Canada.
22 SUMMER 2020 | JUL-AUG-SEPTGOOD DEEDS |DI PLOM AT I CA
Europeans do a good turn during COVID lockdown
I
n an effort to highlight their unity
and solidarity with European values,
several of the embassies from EU
member states, along with the EU delega-
tion, volunteered for Food for Thought on
Europe Day.
“Europe Day is on May 9,” Brice de
Schietere said in a statement about the
event. “It had to be different this year
in the current context and we wanted to
highlight unity and solidarity as strong
European values. We discussed this with
the ambassadors of the EU member states
and agreed that we should express this
solidarity through local engagement in
support of communities in need.”
Food for Thought, which receives sup-
port from the Community Foundation
of Ottawa, is a not-for-profit corporation
that feeds people, encourages community
spirit and ensures people are connected
by internet and phone.
Part of the organization’s mission is
to run a coffee shop out of a community
centre on Caldwell Avenue in the Car-
lington neighbourhood of Ottawa.
“We have coffee and food — waffles
and smoothies,” said Sylvain de Mar-
Caridad Vicen Enguita, assistant to the EU ambassador, helps package meals for Food for Thought as
part of the embassy's unique way to celebrate Europe Day.
hours. They all close at 4 p.m., but most Thought is a positive result of COVID
of the [Food for Thought’s clients] go to and one that will continue even after the
school or work. Also, the evenings are café can reopen.
crime-recruitment time for youths. That’s “There’s a huge number of people
when we open.” in Ottawa who are falling through the
When COVID hit, the coffee shop, cracks,” de Margerie says, adding that he
which also offers phone and internet sees them regularly at the café. “A food
services to clients, had to close. Instead hamper doesn’t help because they don’t
of just abandoning its mission, Food have pots and pans. They can’t cook be-
for Thought pivoted. For the first two cause they don’t have a kitchen.”
months of the pandemic, it moved its vol- Diplomats from EU countries felt it
unteers into Joe Thottungal’s Thali res- was an ideal choice for them to mark Eu-
taurant on O’Connor Street in downtown rope Day in unusual times.
Ottawa. Thottungal, an award-winning “It is important to stress the fantastic
Despite a fire at his east-end Coconut Lagoon chef who is well known for his big heart, job done by the volunteers in the field,”
restaurant, Joe Thottungal, above, has been opened up his restaurant to the group, de Schietere writes. “We are very proud
offering Thali, his downtown restaurant, as a ran the kitchen and, with the help of of our partners and the many generous
community and chef volunteers, cooked people who all deserve credit.”
PRESANTHA DASSA
place to produce meals for Food for Thought.
1,500 meals a day. The chef from the Ger- To mark Nelson Mandela Day in July,
gerie, managing director of Food for man Embassy took part, as did several diplomats from the South African High
Thought. “It’s quite a hard neighbour- diplomats from EU missions. Commission also volunteered their time
hood and all social services carry banking The new meal focus of Food for at Thali with Food for Thought. D
diplomat and international canada 23D I P L O M AT I C A| TRADE WINDS
Cuba: An open door to investment and trade
By Josefina De La Caridad Vidal
Ferreiro
S
ince the beginning of the 1960s,
Cuba’s economy has been slowed
down by the economic blockade im-
posed by the U.S. government, which, due
to its extraterritorial scope, affects not only
the functioning of Cuba itself, but also
its foreign relations. As such, the Cuban
economy and its links with the outside
world have operated and continue to oper-
ate in a highly complex environment, fac-
ing enormous difficulties and obstacles.
Cuba is the largest island in the Carib-
bean so our government policy prioritizes
research and technological innovation
and basic infrastructure throughout the
country, with communication networks,
railroads, highways, airports and ports The most modern port is located in the Mariel Special Development Zone, west of Havana, which is
that allow deep-sea vessels to dock. The destined to become the main entry and exit door for Cuban foreign trade.
most modern of ports is located in the
Mariel Special Development Zone, west Canada is the second-largest investor coal from native woody plants, bagged
of Havana, which is destined to become on the island. Over the decades, Canadian and free of dirt and dust; hot chilis, high
the main entry and exit door for Cuban companies have shared the risks and ben- in vitamins A and C; avocados, mangoes,
foreign trade. efits of participating in the development pineapples, Persian limes and sweet pota-
Cuba maintains diplomatic and con- of strategic sectors such as mining, energy, toes, all fresh; and curcuma in dry powder
sular relations with 187 countries. It is a agri-business and tourism. form and without the direct intervention
member of numerous international and Cuba has natural, political, legal and of solar rays.
regional organizations that have allowed social advantages, including an incentive For further information on the potential
it to sign multiple multilateral agree- regulatory framework and a broad busi- for trade and investment opportunities
ments, as well as bilateral agreements ness portfolio, which make the country an in Cuba, we invite you to visit the official
on economic co-operation. It maintains attractive and safe destination for Cana- pages of the Ministry of Trade and For-
commercial relations with more than 160 dian trade and foreign investment. eign Investment (www.mincex.gob.cu/
countries — among them Canada, which When it comes to foreign investment, index.php/portal) and the Centre for the
has had a significant historical presence in Cuba currently offers a portfolio with 460 Promotion of Foreign Trade and Foreign
HTTP://WWW.ZEDMARIEL.COM/EN/BAY
the Cuban economy. projects in such sectors as energy and oil, Investment (http://www.procuba.cu/
Trade between Canada and Cuba agri-business, mining, renewable sources en). You can also contact the embassy in
exceeded $1.4 million. Canada is Cuba’s of energy, light and heavy industries, Ottawa, Canada (misiones.minrex.gob.cu/
fourth-largest commercial partner and the and biopharmaceuticals. In these sectors, en/canada).
primary market for Cuban goods exports, Canada is an innovative leader and one of
which primarily include nickel, tobacco, the main investors on the island. Josefina De La Caridad Vidal Ferreiro
rum and sea products. Other goods, such Trade-wise, Cuba offers several agri- is the ambassador of Cuba to Canada.
as coffee, fruit and vegetables have been food products it could export to Canada. Phone her at (613) 563-0136 or email to
added to this list in recent years. These include honey; black vegetable char- embacuba@embacubacanada.net
24 SUMMER 2020 | JUL-AUG-SEPTTRADE WINDS |DI PLO M AT I CA
Japan and Canada should amp up trade
By Yasuhisa Kawamura
J
apan and Canada have a longstand-
ing friendly relationship and share LNG Canada, a $40-billion project, represents Canada’s largest and most promising investment
universal values such as freedom, project, and Japan has made substantial investment in it.
democracy, human rights and the rule of
law. We are confident that Japan could be Japanese brands. ergy. LNG Canada, a $40-billion project
the best bridge-builder between Canada Despite these encouraging highlights, that is expected to start exporting LNG
and the Indo-Pacific region. Last year, overall exports and investment shares in the mid 2020s, represents Canada’s
Japan and Canada celebrated the 90th an- continue to be unremarkable. Japan’s largest and most promising investment
niversary of diplomatic relations between share of total exports to Canada amounted project, and Japan has made substantial
our two countries. As ambassador of Ja- to two per cent in 2018, while Canada’s investment in it. In the field of innovation,
pan in Canada, I have the luxury of doing share of total exports to Japan was one per Canada has human resources and hubs
my utmost to further develop the already cent that year. FDI stock tends to follow for the world’s most advanced artificial
excellent relations as we move towards the same trend. intelligence, including deep-learning.
the centennial anniversary. Given that there is still so much poten- Increased co-operation could also be pos-
For the past several months, our joint tial, I strongly believe we can further de- sible through the promotion of a better
efforts to combat the COVID-19 pandemic velop our bilateral relations. We are now business environment and enhanced ex-
have been our first priority. While we partners in the CPTPP, which establishes change of trade missions and networking
forged ahead with the largest stimulus high standards in trade and investment among businesses, including small- and
packages and took rigorous measures to in the Asia-Pacific. If we take advantage medium-sized enterprises.
mitigate its economic and social impacts, of these commonalities, they can form a The CPTPP is a model of what we can
Japan and Canada must co-operate in foundation for the next phase of our eco- achieve when Japan and Canada work
order to ensure the flow of vital medical nomic relationship. together. Under the CPTPP, exports of Ca-
supplies and work together to minimize The question is, how can we capitalize nadian beef and pork to Japan and exports
disruptions to trade and global supply on this huge potential and successfully of Japanese steel products and automobile
chains. It is encouraging that as G7 and navigate our bilateral relationship to the parts to Canada have increased. However,
G20 partners, we are leading the discus- next chapter? The answer to this lies in many areas remain unexploited, including
sion on these issues. identifying the priority areas for bilateral the export of Japan’s agricultural prod-
Two-way trade and investment has co-operation and committing to them. ucts, such as wagyu beef, sake, whisky,
increased over the past decade. Between For instance, the two countries could co- fishery products and green tea to member
2010 and 2019, Japan’s exports to Canada operate towards the realization of a free countries, including Canada.
increased from approximately $10.6 billion and open Indo-Pacific. Furthermore, as The CPTPP is a high-level, 21st-Century
to $12.58 billion, while Canada’s exports free-trading nations, it is of utmost im- agreement that makes global trade and
to Japan increased from an estimated portance for us to promote and protect investment freer, fairer and more transpar-
$12.45 billion to $16.75 billion. Over the a rules-based trading environment from ent. Japan and Canada, as the two largest
similar period, the FDI stock from Japan the rising tide of protectionism. To this economies among the original members,
to Canada increased from $12.7 billion in end, Japan and Canada could enhance co- continue to collaborate with one another
2010 to $28.9 billion in 2018. In addition, operation in support of WTO reform, and to promote the utilization of this multilat-
there are some notable interdependent in ensuring that the rules implemented eral economic framework to increase trade
relationships with respect to specific prod- under the CPTPP are properly maintained and investment in the Indo-Pacific region.
ucts. For instance, canola, lumber and coal and expanded.
LNG CANADA
make up a large share of Canada’s exports We could further co-operate in the Yasuhisa Kawamura is Japan’s ambas-
to Japan. Conversely, about half of the energy sector, with a focus on LNG and sador to Canada. Reach him at infocul@
automobiles manufactured in Canada are the development and export of clean en- ot.mofa.go.jp or (613) 241-8541.
diplomat and international canada 25You can also read
