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COVID-19 UK Economic Update - For more information on the potential business impact of COVID-19, please visit www.pwc.co.uk/covid19
COVID-19

UK Economic Update
For more information on the potential business impact of COVID-19, please visit www.pwc.co.uk/covid19

                    13 May 2020
COVID-19 UK Economic Update - For more information on the potential business impact of COVID-19, please visit www.pwc.co.uk/covid19
Summary
This week’s edition provides an update on our latest economic data, including the final results from wave 3 of the ONS Business
Impact of Coronavirus Survey and highlights from the Bank of England’s Monetary Policy Report (May 2020). We also present some
new analysis on the ‘return to work’ strategy, and what a phased approach to lifting sector restrictions could look like. Our COVID-19
scenarios for the UK economy remain unchanged for the time being. Our COVID-19 scenarios for the UK economy remain
unchanged for the time being. They envisage a decline in GDP in 2020 of around 5% to 10% followed by a more gradual recovery in
2021. More recent survey data points to a steeper economic decline, towards the lower end of this range.
•    Strategy for easing the lockdown has been announced: The government has signalled a modest relaxation to social distancing rules to apply from 13 May, allowing people to
     leave their homes multiple times per day, and for employees who cannot work from home to return to work following social distancing rules and avoiding public transport where
     possible. Other measures will stay in place however, meaning restaurants and public venues will remain closed until at least 1 July.
•    Our analysis shows the manufacturing and construction sectors could be prioritised as part of the “return to work” strategy, on the basis these sectors are associated
     with a relatively low infection risk, and there could also be a material economic uplift from increasing business activity through supply chain effects. This finding appears to be
     consistent with the UK Government’s announcement encouraging workers that cannot work from home to travel to work from 13 May, for example in sectors such as
     manufacturing, construction, distribution and logistics, and scientific research. However, these factors should be considered alongside other factors, such as access to personal
     protective equipment and regional considerations.
•    Ongoing economic uncertainty continues to put pressure on business turnover and investment: According to the Bank of England (BoE)’s Decision Maker Panel (DMP)
     Survey, businesses expect their sales to be around 45% lower than normal in 2020 Q2 and business investment 50% lower relative to a pre-COVID baseline. This is consistent
     with the results from an ONS business survey carried out between 6-19 April that showed 58% of businesses that were still in operation had seen their turnover decrease from
     pre-crisis levels. Of this group, around two-fifths of businesses experienced a decline in turnover in excess of 50%.
•    Business demand for credit will likely increase as firms seek additional liquidity to address cash-flow shortages. According to the BoE’s DMP survey, around two-thirds of
     businesses reported an increase in demand for credit in Q2, but around 10% of businesses thought they would not be able to get additional credit. There are signs financial
     conditions have tightened, but this is somewhat mitigated by the credit and loan guarantee schemes put in place by the BoE and Treasury. The BoE also decided last week to
     maintain the current stance of monetary policy, with the Bank Rate remaining at 0.1% and a continuation of the £200bn government bond purchasing programme, which will likely
     contribute to easing the pressure on credit conditions.
•    We have not made any changes this week to our illustrative COVID-19 scenarios for the UK economy for the time being, which make differing assumptions on the speed
     and extent of the easing of the lockdown over the coming months. Our estimates for GDP growth in 2020 range from around -5% to -10%. More recent survey data points to a
     steeper economic decline towards the lower end of this range. This should then be followed by a gradual recovery in 2021, although the level of GDP may still be around 1.5% to
     4% below pre-crisis trends by the end of next year.

UK Economic Update                                                                                                                                                               13 May 2020
PwC                                                                                                                                                                                        2
COVID-19 UK Economic Update - For more information on the potential business impact of COVID-19, please visit www.pwc.co.uk/covid19
Contents

1. This week’s data                             4
2. UK GDP scenarios                             13
3. UK public finance scenarios                  19
4. UK sector impacts                            24
5. The workforce                                29
6. Returning to work: A sector-based approach   34
Annex – methodological details                  37

UK Economic Update                                   13 May 2020
PwC                                                            3
COVID-19 UK Economic Update - For more information on the potential business impact of COVID-19, please visit www.pwc.co.uk/covid19
This week’s data
COVID-19 UK Economic Update - For more information on the potential business impact of COVID-19, please visit www.pwc.co.uk/covid19
The UK has announced a phased lockdown exit strategy
On 11 May, the Government published the strategy for lifting lockdown measures in England, and signalled a modest
relaxation to social distancing rules from 13 May, to allow people to leave their homes multiple times per day, and for
employees that cannot work from home to return to work following social distancing rules and avoiding public transport where
possible. Other measures will stay in place, meaning restaurants and public venues will remain closed until at least 1 July.

 Policy measure                                                   When?               Description
                                                                                      Industries where employees cannot work from home such as manufacturing, construction, logistics and
                Return to work for industries that
                                                                 13 May               distribution will be able to return to work, but will have to abide by social distancing rules and avoid public
                can’t work from home
                                                                                      transport where possible. Other workers should continue to work from home if they can.
                People will be allowed to exercise
                                                                 13 May               People are allowed to exercise more frequently, without limits on the number of times per day.
                more often
                People will be able to meet other
                                                                 13 May               People will be allowed to meet people from different households in parks so long as they stay two metres apart.
                people in parks
                Return to school for vulnerable                                       Local authorities and schools have urged more vulnerable children and children of key workers to return to
                                                                 13 May
                children & those of key workers.                                      school. There is a large societal benefit for the return of these children to school.
                14-day quarantine for travellers on                                   Apart from arrivals from the Republic of Ireland and France, individuals arriving into the UK will be required to
                                                                 31 May
                international arrivals                                                self-isolate for 14 days at a private residence, and provide an address when they arrive at the border.
                                                                 No earlier
                Return to school for some children                                    Primary schools in England to start reopening in stages, beginning with Reception, Year 1 and Year 6 classes.
                                                                 than 1 June
                                                                 No earlier           Some businesses (most likely retailers and non-food businesses) will be allowed to reopen, but will have to abide
                Phased reopening of some shops
                                                                 than 1 June          by social distancing measures to prevent further virus spread.

                Planned reopening of restaurants,                No earlier           Conditional on appropriate scientific evidence that it is safe to ease the lockdown, hospitality and leisure
                pubs & other public places                       than 1 July          businesses will reopen while enforcing social distancing rules.
Source: UK Government - Our plan to rebuild: The UK Government’s COVID-19 recovery strategy, 11 May 2020

UK Economic Update                                                                                                                                                                                      13 May 2020
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COVID-19 UK Economic Update - For more information on the potential business impact of COVID-19, please visit www.pwc.co.uk/covid19
Comparison of 2020 Q1 GDP growth figures
China saw a significant decline in economic activity as a result of the lockdown starting in late January. However, even for
countries that implemented widespread social distancing measures only in March, the measures represented an almost
unprecedented shock to economic activity, ranging from -4.7% to -5.8% in Italy, Spain and France. Overall Eurozone GDP is
estimated to have fallen by 3.8% in Q1 of 2020, the sharpest drop since records were first compiled in 1995. The US
economy shrank by around nearly 5%, its largest decline since the financial crisis.

GDP growth in Q1 2020 (% change compared to previous quarter – non-annualised)
           China                    France                    Spain                   US     Italy   Eurozone

                                                                                                      -3.8%

                                                                                     -4.8%   -4.7%
                                                              -5.2%
                                     -5.8%

           -9.8%

Source: US Bureau of Economic Analysis, China National Statistics Bureau, Eurostat
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UK business activity falls sharply in April, particularly in services
The final result for the purchasing managers’ index (PMI) data for April shows the COVID-19 outbreak has had a significant
impact on UK business activity. For services in particular, the PMI signalled the fastest ever decline in business activity due to
the lockdown. The manufacturing sector was also hit, but less severely compared to services activity (although the
manufacturing output index alone fell by more to 16.6, with the headline index being distorted by delivery time effects).

                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                    April 2020
Purchasing Managers’ Indices of business activity
                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                    Services: 12.3
 70                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                 Manufacturing: 32.9

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Source: IHS Markit / CIPS

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Uncertainty about UK and global growth has impacted investment
The uncertainty about the outlook for the UK and global economy has had a significant impact on business investment.
According to the Bank of England (BoE) Decision Maker Panel (DMP) Survey, businesses expect their sales to be around
45% lower than normal in 2020 Q2 and business investment 50% lower relative to a pre-COVID baseline. Sectors directly
affected by the lockdown (such as hotels and restaurants) or where it is difficult for employees to work from home, such as
real estate and construction, are expected to be worst hit.

Average expected impact of COVID-19 on business investment & sales in 2020 Q2
         Accom & Food                                                                                                                 Investment   Sales
            Real Estate
           Construction
    Wholesale & Retail
   Transport & Storage
                 Health
         Manufacturing
        Other Services
  Finance & Insurance
         Info & Comms
       Prof & Scientific
      Admin & Support
      Other Production
                     Total
                         0%         10%          20%       30%        40%         50%          60%      70%        80%   90%   100%
                                                    Decline in investment / sales relative to pre-COVID baseline

Source: Bank of England Monthly Decision Maker Panel (DMP) data - April 2020

UK Economic Update                                                                                                                                         13 May 2020
PwC                                                                                                                                                                  8
UK business turnover continues to come under severe pressure
The final results from wave 3 of the ONS’s Business Impact of Coronavirus Survey carried out between 6-19 April showed
58% of businesses that were still in operation had seen their turnover decrease from pre-crisis levels. Of this group, around
two-fifths of businesses experienced a decline in turnover in excess of 50%.
The preliminary results from this survey were previously reported in our 6 May update. These figures have been revised following final data revisions made by the ONS.

Financial performance, percentage of all responding businesses continuing to trade, UK, 6-19 April
   Turnover increased

                             Turnover Increased by more than 50%      0.6%

                        Turnover Increased between 20% and 50%        1.0%

                                 Turnover Increased by up to 20%       1.7%

                         Turnover Affected but within normal range       2.5%

                                 Financial performance unaffected                                                  29.8%
   Turnover decreased

                                Turnover Decreased by up to 20%                           13.7%

                        Turnover Decreased between 20% and 50%                                      20.4%

                            Turnover Decreased by more than 50%                                         23.4%

                                                         Not Sure                 6.9%

                                                                 0%          5%     10%   15%     20%   25%     30%        35%     40%
Source: ONS - Business Impact of Coronavirus Survey

UK Economic Update                                                                                                                                                       13 May 2020
PwC                                                                                                                                                                                9
Demand for credit by businesses is expected to increase in Q2
Business demand for credit has increased as firms seek additional liquidity to address cash-flow shortages. According to the
Bank of England’s DMP survey, around two-thirds of businesses reported an increase in demand for credit in Q2, but around
10% thought they would not be able to get additional credit. This appears consistent with the recent tightening of global
financial conditions (see chart on right), however the availability of credit is being supported by a range of financing facilities.
UK Finance data shows around £5bn has been lent to SMEs as part of the Coronavirus Business Interruption Loan Scheme.

Expected impact of COVID-19 on firm’s demand for credit in                                                   Global financial conditions index
2020 Q2, % of respondents

                                                                                                                                                        7

                                                                                                             Difference from average (no. of standard
         More credit                                                                                                                                    6

                                                                                                                                                        5

                               Expect credit to be available          Expect credit to be unavailable                                                   4

                                                                                                                            deviations)
                                                                                                                                                        3
No material impact
                                                                                                                                                        2

                                                                                                                                                        1

                                                                                                                                                        0
         Less credit
                                                                                                                                                        -1

                                                                                                                                                        -2

                      0%      10%      20%      30%      40%      50%         60%   70%   80%   90%   100%
Source: Bank of England – BankStats tables, Monetary Policy Report May 2020

UK Economic Update                                                                                                                                           13 May 2020
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Net consumer credit lending has declined
The introduction of social distancing measures have restricted consumer spending, thus reducing demand for consumer
credit. Data from the Bank of England shows net consumer credit lending volumes declined sharply in March as repayments
exceeded gross new lending. The temporary suspension of property transactions and the increase in demand for mortgage
payment holidays, coupled with uncertainty on house prices have reduced the availability of mortgage products.

Net consumer credit lending (seasonally adjusted)
    3,000     £ billions                                                  Credit card lending     Other lending   Total

    2,000

    1,000

          0

   -1,000

   -2,000

   -3,000

   -4,000
                     2016                                   2017                                2018                      2019   2020
Source: Bank of England – BankStats tables, excludes dealership car finance

UK Economic Update                                                                                                                      13 May 2020
PwC                                                                                                                                              11
Many UK businesses have applied for government support
The Coronavirus Job Retention Scheme (JRS) which went live on 20 April, has been the most popular COVID-19 government
support scheme so far with over 6 million workers furloughed. 67% of businesses that are continuing to trade or who have
temporarily paused or ceased trading, have applied to the JRS. Government-backed business loan schemes have been
much slower to take off, though lending is gradually picking up in response to reforms of these schemes.

% of businesses either continuing to trade or who have temporarily paused or ceased
trading, broken down by government support, UK, 6-19 April 2020

                             Coronavirus Job Retention Scheme                                                   67.2%

                                          Deferring VAT payments                                        56.4%

                                             Business rates holiday                             27.4%

                                      HMRC Time To Pay scheme                            22.3%

                We have not applied for any of these initiatives                        20.7%

  Government-funded small business grant or loan schemes                        11.2%

                                   Accredited finance agreements               9.9%

Source: ONS - Business Impact of Coronavirus Survey
Note: *Bars will not sum to 100% as businesses could select multiple schemes
UK Economic Update                                                                                                      13 May 2020
PwC                                                                                                                              12
UK GDP scenarios
Potential COVID-19 scenarios to inform crisis planning
Our illustrative COVID-19 scenarios reflect a range of likely outcomes following the UK government’s proposed phased
approach to lifting the lockdown restrictions that are currently in place. Both of these scenarios assume a continuation of some
elements of the lockdown over the coming months, but for varied periods and at varying levels of intensity. The subsequent
trajectory of the disease is dependent on the success of the implementation of these NPIs, whether they need to be re-
imposed, and the introduction of other NPIs or pharmaceutical interventions at a later date (i.e. treatment drugs or vaccines).
                     SMOOTH EXIT                                                                                                                  BUMPY EXIT
            1        Gradual lifting of NPIs does not result in a significant second peak                                                2        Lifting of NPIs results in a second peak in cases, requiring NPIs to
                     of disease. Cases continue to occur at a lower level.                                                                        be reintroduced to bring cases back to a lower level.
                                                                                         Assume vaccine                                                                                                   Assume vaccine
New cases per week

                                                                                                                             New cases per week
                                                                                         available – June                                                                                                 available – June
                                                                                         2021                                                                                                             2021

 2020                                            2021                                        2022                              2020                                            2021                                         2022
Assumptions*:                                                                                                                Assumptions*:
• Following an initial peak in April 2020, successful implementation of NPIs including testing,                              • Following an initial peak in April 2020, successful implementation of NPIs including testing,
  contact tracing, quarantine and physical distancing results in the effective reproduction rate                                contact tracing, quarantine and physical distancing results in the effective reproduction rate
  remaining at or below one, and therefore the number of cases reducing to a lower level.                                       remaining at or below one, and therefore the number of cases reducing to a lower level.
• NPIs are lifted in a gradual, phased way from late May 2020 onwards.                                                       • NPIs are lifted in a gradual, phased way from late May 2020 onwards. However, this has the
• Significant testing and contact tracing will be necessary to track and control outbreaks as pre-                              effect of increasing the reproduction number to above one, causing a further peak in cases.
  symptomatic and mild cases prevent complete containment of the virus until a vaccine                                          NPIs may be introduced and reversed in a cyclical way to control subsequent outbreaks.
  becomes available.                                                                                                         • Significant testing and contact tracing will be necessary to track and control outbreaks as pre-
                                                                                                                                symptomatic and mild cases prevent complete containment of the virus until a vaccine
Timeframe:                                                                                                                      becomes available.
• Peak: April 2020                                                                                                           Timeframe:
• Total duration: 12 to 18 months (until a vaccine is available).                                                            • Peak: April 2020 (with second smaller peak later in 2020)
                                                                                                                             • Total duration: 12 to 18 months (until a vaccine is available).
Note: *Our scenarios assume the UK moves to a comprehensive free trade agreement with the EU on 1 January 2021, but there are still uncertainties surrounding this assumption.
UK Economic Update                                                                                                                                                                                                     13 May 2020
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COVID-19 economic impact transmission channels
For our alternative scenarios, we modelled five main transmission channels through which COVID-19 could impact the UK
economy (the first four negative, with an offsetting positive effect from monetary and fiscal policy reactions). Other reinforcing
and mitigating impacts are possible, so this is not an exhaustive list.

              1. Supply                   2. Labour                   3. Uncertainty                4. Sector                     5. Policy
              chain                       supply                      impacts                       partial or full               reactions
              disruption                  reduction                                                 lockdowns

 • Major disruption              • Social distancing         • Consumers defer major       • Significant periods of      • Extensive working
   reduces demand                  measures see non-           purchase decisions and        travel disruption,            capital / cashflow
   throughout the supply           essential workers           defer discretionary           closures of most retail       support to businesses
   chain, affecting                working from home for       spend.                        outlets (except grocery       through tax / payment
   suppliers. Businesses           an extended period, or                                    and pharmacy), leisure;       holidays, grants and
   scale back production or        workers staying at home   • Significantly reduced         hospitality; sports and       loan guarantees.
   adapt supply chains to          to care for children or     levels of business and        entertainment venues.
   alternative sources.            other dependents.           consumer confidence                                       • Fiscal support for
                                                               results in a sharp and      • Other non-essential           healthcare service.
 • Significant proportion of     • Focus on maintaining        sustained downturn in         sectors may see full or
   the workforce becomes           workforce in essential      business investment.          partial lockdowns due to    • Looser monetary policy
   unavailable for work and        roles only.                                               practical difficulties in     stance through interest
   production facilities can’t                               • Investment focuses on         operating with adequate       rate cuts combined with
   maintain output of basic                                    infrastructure and            social distancing.            additional quantitative
   materials and unfinished                                    facilities to counter the                                   easing (QE) and other
   goods.                                                      pandemic and                                                measures to boost
                                                               investment in digital                                       credit flows to business.
                                                               ways of working (or new
                                                               delivery models).
UK Economic Update                                                                                                                           13 May 2020
PwC                                                                                                                                                   15
Illustrative scenarios for short-term impact on UK GDP
Our COVID-19 economic scenarios to reflect a range of likely outcomes on the lifting of lockdown restrictions that are
currently in place. Our estimates for GDP growth in 2020 range from around -5% to -10%.

Our analysis suggests that UK GDP growth could range between around -5%
and -10% in 2020, given we expected growth of around 1% before COVID-19
and the estimated impacts of the outbreak in the table below, which are from
around -6% to -11% in the first year. Figures below are only illustrative of broad         First year UK GDP impact across COVID-19 scenarios
orders of magnitude and should not be taken as forecasts or predictions. See the                  Smooth exit               Bumpy exit
technical annex for more detail on assumptions.                                       0                                                   Supply chain

                                                                                      -2                                                  Labour supply
 Year one impact (%) on UK GDP                           Scenarios
 relative to baseline without COVID-19                                                                                                    Uncertainty- consumer
                                         Smooth exit            Bumpy exit            -4                                                  expenditure
 1. Supply chain                             -0.7                    -1.2                                                                 Uncertainty- investment
                                                                                      -6
 2. Labour supply                            -2.1                    -2.4                                                                 Sector lockdowns
 3a. Uncertainty – consumer                                                           -8
                                                                                                                                         Net position after monetary
 expenditure                                 -1.3                    -2.6                                                                and fiscal response
                                                                                     -10
 3b. Uncertainty – business
 investment                                  -1.3                    -2.3            -12
                                          Fiscal: 2.1           Fiscal: 2.1                                                               Government
 4. Policy response
                                         Monetary: 1.0         Monetary: 1.3         -14                                                  support schemes
                                                                                                                                          prevent far worse
 5. Sector partial lockdowns                 -3.6                    -6.0
                                                                                     -16 % impact on 2020 GDP relative to                 outcomes
 Overall UK economic impact                  -5.9                    -11.1               baseline without COVID-19

UK Economic Update                                                                                                                                         13 May 2020
PwC                                                                                                                                                                 16
UK GDP will drop sharply in Q2 2020, but should recover later
It is clear the COVID-19 crisis will lead to a sharp fall in GDP in Q2 2020, perhaps by around 12% to 16% - much larger than
any quarter during the 2008-09 financial crisis. This is driven by the unprecedented nature of the lockdown, as well as lower
consumer spending and business investment due to more standard confidence and income effects. There should then be a
recovery as and when the lockdown eases, although the pace of this remains highly uncertain. We estimate in our two
scenarios that output could be back to around 1.5% to 4% below its pre-crisis trend by the end of 2021 (see chart).

UK GDP index (Q4 2019 = 100), quarterly levels in each scenario                                                                                               Commentary
                                     105                                                                                                    ●   In the ‘Smooth exit’ and ‘Bumpy exit’
                                                                                                                                                scenarios, GDP could contract between 12%
                                                                                                                                                and 16% quarter-on-quarter in Q2 2020.
   UK Real GDP Index (Q4 2019:100)

                                     100                                                                                                    ●   This compares to a contraction of around 2.1%
                                                                                                                                                in Q4 2008 at the height of the global financial
                                                                                                                                                crisis, or a 2.7% quarter-on-quarter decline at
                                     95                                                                                                         the peak of the 1974 recession.
                                                                                                                                            ●   We assume output would then recover
                                                                                                                              Smooth exit       relatively quickly at first as lockdowns are
                                     90                                                                                       Bumpy exit        eased, followed by a more gradual pace of
                                                                                                                              Baseline          recovery as economic life slowly returns to
                                                                                                                                                normal. The recovery is longer under the
                                     85                                                                                                         ‘Bumpy exit’ scenario due to larger scarring
                                                                                                                                                effects and the temporary re-imposition of
                                                                                                                                                social distancing measures in this case.
                                     80                                                                                                     ●   The pace of the recovery remains highly
                                           2019   2019   2019   2019   2020   2020 2020    2020   2021   2021   2021   2021                     uncertain, but we assume this involves the
                                            Q1     Q2     Q3     Q4     Q1     Q2     Q3    Q4     Q1     Q2     Q3     Q4
                                                                                                                                                level of GDP returning to only around 1.5% to
                                                                                Quarter
Source: ONS, PwC analysis                                                                                                                       4% below pre-crisis trend levels by the end of
                                                                                                                                                2021. But other outcomes are clearly possible
UK Economic Update                                                                                                                                                                        13 May 2020
PwC
                                                                                                                                                if the crisis lasts for longer.                    17
PwC’s economic growth scenarios compared to other analyses
Our GDP growth scenarios for 2020 are less negative than the recent illustrative projections by the OBR predicting a 13% fall
in 2020. The OBR assumes a very sharp 35% drop in Q2 2020. Similarly, the Bank of England’s most recent forecasts for the
UK assume a quarterly decline of over 20%, with growth in 2020 averaging at -14%. Both the latest IMF forecast for the UK
and consensus forecasts as surveyed by the Treasury in April are more comparable with our ‘Smooth exit’ scenario, but are
more optimistic in comparison to our ‘Bumpy exit’ scenario.

Comparison of 2020 GDP projections and scenarios                                                                                                       Commentary
                                                                                                                                      ●   The Office for Budget Responsibility (OBR)
                                                                        -4.8%                         PwC - 'Smooth exit' scenario        published illustrative projections on the impacts
                                                                                                                                          of COVID-19 on UK economic output on 14
                                                                                                                                          April. They estimate that 2020 Q2 GDP could
                                                                -5.8%                                 Consensus forecasts* (16 Apr)       fall by as much as 35% compared to the
                                                                                                                                          previous quarter and by around 13% in 2020
                                                           -6.5%                                      IMF (14 Apr)                        as a whole despite a strong recovery later in
                                                                                                                                          the year.
                                                                                                                                      ●   Similarly, the Bank of England anticipates a
                                 -10.0%                                                               PwC - 'Bumpy exit' scenario         significant decline in Q2, followed by a material
                                                                                                                                          pick up in activity later in 2020 that continues
                                                                                                                                          into 2021, when the economy recovers to its
              -12.8%                                                                                  OBR (14 Apr)
                                                                                                                                          pre-COVID level in the second half of 2021.
                                                                                                                                      ●   IMF and consensus forecasts project more
      -14.0%                                                                                          Bank of England (7 May)             moderate falls in GDP in 2020, but also some
                                                                                                                                          longer term scarring effects as we do. But all
                                                                                                                                          such projections are subject to large
*HMT comparison of independent forecasts (April 2020) – average of new forecasts made in last month
Source: PwC, OBR, IMF, HMT, BoE
                                                                                                                                          uncertainties and can only be illustrative at
                                                                                                                                          present.
UK Economic Update                                                                                                                                                                13 May 2020
PwC                                                                                                                                                                                        18
UK public finance
scenarios
Direct cost of fiscal measures to combat COVID-19
We have revised our estimates of the impact of fiscal measures on public finances in line with our revised COVID-19 scenarios.
The Treasury, working closely with the Bank of England, has responded to the COVID-19 crisis with direct fiscal support
measures totalling around £75bn to £110bn in 2020/21 in our two scenarios. But many measures are temporary so costs should
be much lower at only around £20bn to £30bn in 2021/22, assuming the crisis ends next year as assumed in both scenarios. The
assumptions behind this and other fiscal analyses in this section are described further in the annex at the end of this report.

Estimated cost of direct fiscal support measures in alternative scenarios (£bn)                                                             Commentary
                         120                                                                                               ●   Our previous fiscal analysis (first published on
                                                                                                                               15 April based on modelling the previous
                                                                                                                               week) assumed a direct fiscal support of
                         100                                                                                                   around £60bn to £80bn in our two scenarios.

                                                                                                                           ●   We have revised the estimated cost of the
  Estimated cost (£bn)

                         80
                                                                                     Other measures                            fiscal stimulus package upwards to account for
                                                                                                                               the higher cost likely to be associated with the
                         60                                                          Job retention and self-employment         Coronavirus Job Retention Scheme in light of
                                                                                     support                                   more recent data on business take-up, as well
                                                                                     Benefit increases                         as estimated cost of newly announced policies
                         40                                                                                                    over the past two weeks. Note that this
                                                                                     Other Budget 2020 Covid-19 measures       analysis has not been updated to reflect the
                         20
                                                                                                                               extension of the Coronavirus Job Retention
                                                                                     NHS emergency fund                        Scheme until October 2020.

                          0
                               2020/21         2021/22      2020/21        2021/22
                                     Smooth exit                  Bumpy exit

Source: PwC estimates based on data from OBR, Treasury and IFS

UK Economic Update                                                                                                                                                     13 May 2020
PwC                                                                                                                                                                             20
The budget deficit will rise sharply in 2020/21, but should then fall back
Our revisions to the cost of the fiscal support package as well as our new lower economic growth scenarios imply a sharp rise
in the budget deficit in 2020/21 to around £210-315bn, or around 10% to 15% of GDP, as compared to 10% in 2009/10 after
the financial crisis. But we expect much of this rise will reverse in 2021/22, with the deficit coming down to around 4.5% to 7%
of GDP. This would still be above the 3% of GDP ceiling implied by current fiscal rules, so some longer term fiscal tightening
may be needed after full recovery has been achieved. But that is a matter to decide after the crisis.

Annual budget deficit (£bn)                                                                          Annual budget deficit (as % of GDP)
 350                                                                                                  18%
                                         315
                                                                                                      16%                                  15.4%
 300
                                                                                                      14%
 250
                                         212                                                          12%
                                                                                                                                            9.8%                             'Bumpy exit' scenario
 200                                                                      'Bumpy exit' scenario       10%
                                                                 163
                                                                          'Smooth exit' scenario       8%                                                         7.1%       'Smooth exit' scenario
 150
                                                                 112
                                                                          Pre-crisis baseline (OBR     6%                                                         4.7%
                                                                          forecast)
                                                                                                                                                                             Fiscal rule ceiling = 3%
 100                                                                                                                                                                         GDP
                                                                                                       4%
                                                                                                                                                                             Pre-crisis baseline
  50                                                                 67
             49                          55                                                            2%                                                             2.8%   (OBR forecast)
                                                                                                                   2.2%                    2.4%

    0                                                                                                  0%
              2019/20                 2020/21                 2021/22                                               2019/20               2020/21               2021/22

Source: OBR for pre-crisis baseline, PwC for alternative scenarios                                   Source: OBR for pre-crisis baseline, PwC alternative scenarios

UK Economic Update                                                                                                                                                                         13 May 2020
PwC                                                                                                                                                                                                 21
Impact on public debt to GDP ratios in alternative scenarios
In our ‘Smooth exit’ scenario, public debt might stabilise at around 80% of GDP in 2021/22, so in this case there should be no
major threat to longer term fiscal sustainability. But the debt profile looks less sustainable in a ‘Bumpy exit’ scenario as that
may be associated with a larger permanent loss of GDP and, hence, of tax revenues. In that less favourable case, there may
be a need for future tax rises or renewed spending restraint in the longer term, but only once we are well passed the end of
the current crisis. Bank of England action means there is no problem with the government borrowing more for now.
Public sector net debt, excluding contribution from Bank of England schemes (% GDP)                                                   Commentary
 95%                                                                                                                ●   Our estimates of the debt-to-GDP ratio have
                                                                                                                        been revised from our previous 15 April update
                                                                                                                        to match our new budget deficit and GDP
                                                                      89%
 90%                                                                                                                    scenarios. We also exclude the impact on debt
                                                                                                                        of the Bank of England’s schemes (such as the
                                                         85%                                                            Term Funding Scheme), which provides a
 85%                                                                           'Bumpy exit' scenario                    better indication of underlying trends in the
                                                                      81%                                               debt to GDP ratio.
                                                         79%
 80%                                                                           'Smooth exit' scenario               ●   The government clearly needs to borrow much
                                                                                                                        more in the short term to help soften the
 75%                                                                                                                    economic blow from the crisis. So the debt-to-
                       72%                               72%          72%      Pre-crisis baseline (OBR forecast)       GDP ratios will rise, particularly in a ‘Bumpy
                                                                                                                        exit’ scenario. Recent successful gilt auctions
 70%                                                                                                                    show the markets are happy to buy significant
                                                                                                                        additional amounts of UK government debt at
                                                                                                                        current record low yields.
 65%
                                                                                                                    ●   This reflects the fact the Bank of England has
 60%                                                                                                                    pledged to buy at least an extra £190bn (c.8%
                     2019/20                           2020/21       2021/22                                            GDP) of gilts, and more if needed, which offers
                                                                                                                        considerable support to the market. In the
Source: OBR for pre-crisis baseline, PwC for alternative scenarios                                                      short term, the government can also call on
                                                                                                                        temporary cash flow financing through
UK Economic Update
                                                                                                                        expanding its ‘overdraft’ at the Bank of 13 May 2020
PwC                                                                                                                     England.                                          22
OBR anticipates a larger budget deficit than during the financial crisis
According to an illustrative reference scenario published by the OBR on 14 April, COVID-19 could cause the largest single-
year deficit in public sector net borrowing since the Second World War, rising to nearly 14% of GDP in 2020-21. Our revised
estimates of the budget deficit in alternative scenarios (10-15% of GDP) are now broadly in line with the OBR’s analysis, but
we do not expect as sharp a fall in the deficit in 2021/22 as we assume some longer term scarring effects on the economy.

OBR public sector net borrowing: reference scenario versus Budget forecast (% GDP)                                                                         Commentary
                                         Outturn         Budget 2020 forecast           Reference scenario                               ●   The OBR’s illustrative scenario suggests that
                   30                                                                                                                        compared to their 2020 Budget forecast of
                              WWI / Spanish
                                                          WWII                                                                               £55bn, there could be a £218bn increase in net
                              flu                                                                                                            borrowing, bringing the total to £273bn in
                   25                                                                                                                        2020-21. This reflects the cost of various
                                                                                                                                             schemes which the government have
                   20                                                                                                                        introduced as well as the impact of the
                                                                                                                                             lockdown on the economy and so on tax
  Percent of GDP

                                                                                                          Financial crisis
                                                                                                                                             revenues and benefit spending.
                   15
                                                                                                                                         ●   This means that COVID-19 could have the
                                                                                                                                             largest impact on public borrowing since the
                   10                                                                                                                        Second World War: the OBR estimates that
                                                                                                                                             the deficit could reach 14% of GDP in 2020-21.
                    5                                                                                                                    ●   The budget deficit is projected to fall quickly in
                                                                                                                                             2021-22 as lockdown measures are lifted and
                    0                                                                                                                        the economy recovers. But the OBR
                                                                                                                                             assumptions, while very negative for Q2 2020,
                                                                                                                                             appear rather optimistic in the medium term.
                   -5
           1908                                                                                                              2019 2024
            -09                                                                                                               -20 -25
                                                                                                                                         ●   The OBR also estimates that every additional
Source: ONS, Nomis: DWP; Stat Xplore; Work and Pensions Select Committee hearing, Resolution Foundation                                      month spent in lockdown could add add £35bn
                                                                                                                                             to £45bn to the deficit (which is similar to our
UK Economic Update
                                                                                                                                             own estimates).                           13 May 2020
PwC                                                                                                                                                                                             23
UK sector impacts
We use an input-output approach to assess sector impacts
We use UK input-output (I-O) tables to model the sectoral economic impact of COVID-19 through three main channels: the
direct impact on gross value added (GVA)* due to sector lockdowns and labour supply disruption; the supply chain spend
impact (indirect impacts through the supply chain); and the employee spend impact (induced impacts as a result of lower
household incomes and so lower consumer spending).

                                                                                                                                                      A simplified representation of the relation between Covid19’s
The relationship between the three levels of economic                                                                                                 A simplified representation
                                                                                                                                                          direct impact           of thethrough
                                                                                                                                                                        and its impacts  relation the
                                                                                                                                                                                                  between  COVID-19’s
                                                                                                                                                                                                      supply chain
contribution                                                                                                                                          direct impact and its impacts through the supply chain

                                                                                                                                                                                               £xm
                                                       The image part with relationship ID rId7 was not found in the file.

                                      1   Direct
                                                                                                                                                                                      Initial demand shock
                                             Employment
                                          Gross Value added                                                                              Employee
                      Supplier
                                          Wages        Profit                                                                           spending of                £xm                         £xm                            £xm
                     expenditure
                                                                                                                                          wages
                                                                                                                                                               (construction                (financial                    (distribution
                                                                                                                                                                contractor)             services provider)             network provider)

            2 Indirect                                                                               3 Induced
              Supply chain spend                                                                       Employee spend
                     Employment                                                                                                  Employment                         £xm                        £xm                            £xm
                Gross Value added                                                                                            Gross Value added                  Suppliers to         Suppliers to the financial   Suppliers to the distribution
                                                                                                                                                           construction contractor      services provider             network provider
                Wages        Profit                                                                                          Wages        Profit

                                                                                                                                                                                     Extended supply chain

      *Note: GVA is broadly the sectoral version of GDP

UK Economic Update                                                                                                                                                                                                                         13 May 2020
PwC                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                 25
Our estimates show biggest impacts for food service, hotels and transport
Our sectoral analysis shows that the industries likely to experience the greatest short term economic impact are food service
(e.g. restaurants and pubs), hotels, leisure and transport. In our ‘Smooth exit’ scenario, we estimate reductions of around
14% to 20% in annual 2020 GVA in these sectors relative to a baseline without COVID-19. In our ‘Bumpy exit’ scenario, these
sectors could suffer a negative impact on GVA of around 26% to 37% in 2020. There would be some offsetting gain in
healthcare and other public sector activity levels, but not enough to prevent a significant negative impact on total UK GDP.

Range of estimated GVA impact by sector – ‘Smooth exit’ vs ‘Bumpy exit’, % impact on
2020 GVA relative to baseline without COVID-19                                                                                          Commentary
                        Food service      -20% to -37%                                                                 ●   Our sector scenario impacts have been
                               Hotels         -18% to -34%                                         % impact on 2020        revised in line with our changes to our GDP
                     Leisure and arts                -15% to -28%                                    GVA relative to       scenarios as described in Section 2 above.
                           Transport                   -14% to -26%                                 baseline without
                        Construction                       -12% to -22%                                    COVID-19    ●   The I-0 approach helps identify points of most
                                                                                                                           negative impact, including supply chain effects.
                          Real estate                           -10% to -18%
               Retail and wholesale                                -9% to -17%                                         ●   These impacts stem largely from demand-side
                       Manufacturing                                -9% to -16%                                            effects, and we assume that the economy re-
                            Logistics                                      -6% to -11%                                     allocates labour to where it is needed (e.g.to
                         UK average                                        -6% to -11%                                     food retail away from non-food retail).
 Professional and technical services                                          -5% to -9%
              Finance and insurance                                              -4% to -7%                            ●   Our analysis also implicitly assumes that policy
          Information and Telecoms                                               -4% to -7%                                action is sufficient to prevent a very large wave
                              Utilities                                             -3% to -5%                             of corporate insolvencies (though there are
                           Education                                                  -2% to -3%                           bound to be some in practice).
              Public Admin, Defence                                                                 2% to 3%
              Health and social care                                                                   3% to 6%

                                              Bumpy exit    Smooth exit
Source: PwC Economics analysis, ONS

UK Economic Update                                                                                                                                                 13 May 2020
PwC                                                                                                                                                                         26
COVID-19 sector impacts vs 2009 financial crisis
The potential scale of the annual GDP impact under even our ‘Smooth exit’ scenario could be larger than the experience of
2009 due to the global financial crisis, with the impact of COVID-19 being significantly larger for locked-down sectors. During
the financial crisis, by contrast, businesses were still able to maintain some cash flow to support operations. However, the
scale of government support has also been much greater this time around, which mitigates some of the difference. In our
Bumpy exit scenario, the larger impacts in 2020 vs 2009 would be further increased.

Sectoral GDP impacts in the smooth exit scenario in 2020 vs actual 2009 annual impacts
                        Food service
                               Hotels
                     Leisure and arts
                           Transport
                        Construction
                          Real estate
               Retail and wholesale
                       Manufacturing
                            Logistics
                         UK average
 Professional and technical services
              Finance and insurance
          Information and Telecoms
                              Utilities
                           Education
              Public Admin, Defence
              Health and social care
                                      -25%    -20%          -15%         -10%   -5%   0%   5%

                                             COVID-19 Smooth exit   2009 GFC

Source: PwC Economics analysis, ONS

UK Economic Update                                                                                                        13 May 2020
PwC                                                                                                                                27
Businesses’ trading status by sector
A business survey conducted by the ONS from 6-19 April showed that around 23% of businesses had temporarily closed or
paused trading. More businesses have ceased or paused trading than have continued trading in the accommodation and food
services, and the arts, entertainment and recreation sectors. At the other end of the spectrum, nearly all professional services
businesses were continuing to trade during this time period, as well as the information and communication sector.

Trading status, all responding businesses, broken down by industry, UK, 6-19 April 2020

                                                                                                                                                                                                      Continuing to trade
Professional Scientific And Technical Activities
                                                                                                                                                                                                      Has temporarily closed or paused trading
                 Information And Communication
      Human Health And Social Work Activities
  Administrative And Support Service Activities
                 Transportation And Storage
              Water Supply Sewerage Waste
       Management And Remediation Activities
                                  Education
                                        Manufacturing
                                All Industries*
             Wholesale And Retail Trade; Repair
             Of Motor Vehicles And Motorcycles
                                   Construction
              Arts Entertainment And Recreation
  Accommodation And Food Service Activities
                                                         0%           10%          20%          30%          40%          50%           60%          70%          80%          90%          100%
Source: ONS - Business Impact of Coronavirus Survey
Note: *Some sectors haven’t been included due to their low response rate, but are included for ‘All industries’. Bars will not sum to 100% as those businesses that have permanently ceased trading (less than 1%) are not included in the graph.
UK Economic Update                                                                                                                                                                                                                           13 May 2020
PwC                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                   28
The workforce
Home working productivity comparison by income group
Our latest PwC Research survey (16-19 April) asked a representative sample of around 600 currently employed UK workers
whether the nature of their work allowed them to work from home. In aggregate, around 60% of workers are able to work from
home, but this was not evenly distributed across income levels. While 70% of high income earners (>£50k) could work from
home, only around 40% of low income earners (
COVID-19 impacts on employment status by UK region
Our survey (conducted 16-19 April) also shows workers in the North East of England were most likely to have become
unemployed or furloughed compared to other UK regions, followed by the South East and Wales. In comparison, just 17% of
respondents living in London were furloughed, but London also has a relatively high proportion of workers where their hours
have been reduced. Our survey cannot, however, pick up the considerable variation likely to have been seen within regions.
This will require targeted support for local areas that are particularly reliant on hard-hit sectors such as tourism.

Impact on employment status due to COVID-19, by UK regions, 16-19 April 2020

 100%
  90%
  80%
  70%
  60%                                                                                                                                   I have become employed
  50%                                                                                                                                   I am still working my usual hours
  40%                                                                                                                                   I am still employed, but on reduced hours

  30%                                                                                                                                   I have been furloughed (but remain employed)
                                                                                                                                        I have become unemployed
  20%
  10%
    0%
          North East South East   Wales     East      West      South   Northern   East of   Yorkshire   London   Scotland North West
                                          Midlands   Midlands   West     Ireland   England    and the
                                                                                             Humber
Source: PwC Research

UK Economic Update                                                                                                                                                            13 May 2020
PwC                                                                                                                                                                                    31
Universal credit claims remain high, but new claims have slowed
Between 16 March and 28 April, the Department for Work and Pensions (DWP) received a total of 2.4 million individual claims
to Universal Credit. The weekly number of new claims now appears to be in decline since peaking at the end of March,
possibly due to the support measures announced by the government (notably the Job Retention Scheme). However, there is
still likely to be a large rise in unemployment over the next few months, as reflected in recent projections by the OBR and
other forecasters.
Weekly new claims* to Jobseeker’s Allowance and Universal Credit: GB
700k
                                                                                                                                                       633k
600k
                                                                                                                                    533k
500k
                                                                                                                                                                           400k
400k
                                                                                                                                                                 +955%
300k                                                                                                                                         +789%
                                                                                                                                                                                              245k               242k
                                                                                                                                                                                     +567%                                        191k
200k
                                                                                                                 112k                                                                                  +308%              +303%
                                     82k               +78%                                                                                                                                                                                +218%
100k                                                                        60k                75k
                  46k                                                                                  +26%                +87%

    0k
                Feb ‘08            Feb ‘09                              March ‘19         10 Mar ‘20          17 Mar ‘20         24 Mar ‘20         31 Mar ‘20           7 Apr ‘20         14 Apr ‘20         21 Apr ‘20      28 Apr ‘20
                      Jobseeker’s Allowance                                                                                                                  Universal Credit
Source: ONS, Nomis: DWP; Stat Xplore; Work and Pensions Select Committee hearing, Resolution Foundation
Note: JSA figures have been adjusted to weekly. JSA and UC figures are not directly comparable.
*Our claim figures are reflective of the declarations made to UC as reported by DWP. There are methodological differences that may cause this claim figure to be higher than what will be presented in official statistics.

UK Economic Update                                                                                                                                                                                                                         13 May 2020
PwC                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                 32
Furloughed workers by industry
According to a business survey by the ONS conducted between 6-19 April, 28% of the UK workforce have been furloughed
by their employers, of which the accommodation and food services and arts and entertainment industries saw the highest
proportions, with 73% and 70% respectively furloughed. Other services sectors less affected by the lockdown or able to cope
with home-working have seen far fewer employees furloughed.

% of workforce furloughed by industry (businesses either temporarily closed or paused
trading or continuing to trade, UK, 6-19 April 2020

    Accommodation And Food Service Activities

              Arts Entertainment And Recreation

                                       Construction

                      Transportation And Storage

   Administrative And Support Service Activities

                                     Manufacturing

                                    All Industries*
        Wholesale and Retail Trade; Repair Of Motor
                         Vehicles And Motorcycles
       Water Supply, Sewerage, Waste Management
                        and Remediation Activities
 Professional Scientific And Technical Activities

                 Information And Communication

       Human Health And Social Work Activities

                                          Education

                                                    0%            10%            20%            30%            40%            50%           60%            70%            80%            90%     100%
Source: ONS - Business Impact of Coronavirus Survey
Note: *Some sectors haven’t been included due to their low response rate, but are included in ‘All industries’. The bars will not sum to 100% because of the apportionment by employment size.
UK Economic Update                                                                                                                                                                                      13 May 2020
PwC                                                                                                                                                                                                              33
Returning to work: A
sector-based
approach
Our Return to Work Index assesses the risks and benefits of returning to work
The Government’s strategy for lifting lockdown measures in England encouraged workers that cannot work from home to
travel to work from 13 May, for example in sectors such as manufacturing, construction, distribution and logistics, and
scientific research - while abiding by social distancing rules and avoiding public transport where possible. To support an
assessment of how this approach could be implemented, we developed a Return to Work Index using a range of economic
and risk indicators to quantify each sector’s economic contribution and the health risk from returning employees to work.
                                    Questions to answer                                                                   Methodology

                                 PwC Return to Work Index

                     Economic                                 Risk

                                                                                                       Normalise
                                                                                                                  1                     2
                                                                                                                                        Calculate
                                                                                                                                        economic score
                                                                                          Indicators are standardised                   Economic score is
                                                                                            using the z-score method,
                                                                                              based on the mean and
                                                                                                                          Calculating   combination of sector GVA,
                                                                                                                                        productivity and Covid-19
                                                                                          standard deviation of the 62     the PwC      economic impact. This is
                                                                                                     sectors to enable
        •    GVA: The higher the
                                           • Commute: The higher the share of
                                                                                                         comparability     Return to    scaled such that the score of
                                                                                                                                        top sector = 50.
                                             workers not using public transport, the
             economic impact of                                                                                           Work Index
                                                                                                                  3                     4
                                             lower the risk of transmitting COVID-
             relaxing the restrictions
                                             19, and the higher the index score.
             of a sector, the higher the
             index score. Higher           • Workplace sparsity: Sectors with           Calculate risk scores                           Scale the index
             productivity sectors            lower levels of face to face interaction      Two risk scores from public                  Scores are combined to
             produce higher economic         with workers and customers have a              commuting independence                      values between 0 and 100.
             benefit for the same level      lower chance of COVID-19                    and workplace sparsity. Both
             of risk.                        transmission. The higher the sparsity,           are scaled such that the
                                             the higher the risk index score.             score of the top sector = 25.

UK Economic Update                                                                                                                                               13 May 2020
PwC                                                                                                                                                                       35
Sectors that could be prioritised for the return to work strategy
Our analysis shows that the manufacturing and construction sectors could be prioritised as part of the “return to work”
strategy, on the basis that these sectors are associated with a relatively low infection risk, and there could also be a material
economic uplift from increasing business activity through supply chain effects. However, these factors should be considered
alongside other factors, such as access to personal protective equipment and regional considerations. For example, different
parts of the country may have varying levels of transport use, vulnerable populations and available healthcare capacity.

 PwC Return to Work Index: Economic factors vs. Risk factors                                                                                             Commentary
                                       Lower economic impact -                                  Higher economic impact
                                             Lower risk                                               - Lower risk
                                      Agriculture
                                                                                                                                        ●   Our analysis shows construction and
                                                               Processing
                                                               of raw                                                                       manufacturing could be prioritised for return to
                                                               materials                           Manufacturing                            work based on the potential economic uplift
                                                                                                                                            from returning to work, as well as benefitting
                                                                  Renting/leasing                                                           an extensive supply chain.
                                                                   Insurance
                                                                                                                         Construction
                                                                                                                                        ●   However, a sector-based approach to lifting
                                                                                                                                            the lockdown should be considered alongside
                                                                                                                                            a range of other factors, for example, regional
                                                                                       Real estate
                                                                                                                                            differences in work environments, reliance on
                                                                                Food /beverage                                              public transport, as well as business access to
                                                                                services                                                    personal protective equipment for workers.
                                                      Creative arts,
                                                      entertainment
                                        Information       Motion Air
                                                                                    Water                                               ●   For example, Londoners are relatively more
                                                                                    transport
                                        services          picture transport                                                                 dependent on public transport to get to work
                                                                                                                                            compared to workers in other regions.
                                        Lower economic impact -                                 Higher economic impact                      However, London also has a relatively high
                                              Higher risk                                            - Higher risk                          concentration of financial and professional
                                                                                                                                            services activity that can also be carried out
                                                                                                                                            remotely.
Source: PwC Economics analysis, ONS

UK Economic Update                                                                                                                                                                  13 May 2020
PwC                                                                                                                                                                                          36
Annex – methodological
details
UK GDP/GVA scenarios – technical notes and key assumptions

•      Annual vs quarterly: this report focuses on estimated impacts on annual                    •   Uncertainty - business investment: We use our previous modelling work to
       GDP/GVA in 2020, but these are based on a quarterly model where output falls                   determine the relationship between UK GDP and business investment. The
       sharply in Q2 2020 and then recovers at varying rates in different scenarios later             modelling quantified the economic impact of a risk premium shock to total
       in the year and in 2021 (see chart on p.14). We assume that the UK moves to a                  investment and UK GDP using a Computable General Equilibrium modelling
       comprehensive free trade agreement with the EU on 1 January 2021.                              approach. We apply this relationship to a drop in the business investment portion
                                                                                                      of total investment to estimate the impact on GDP. The shock to business
•      Supply chain assumptions are taken from an academic paper by Luo and Tsang                     investment was informed by benchmarking to other periods of historic stress and
       (2020) who estimate the indirect economic impact to the: a) domestic and b)                    adjusted for its duration.
       global economy due to the Chinese supply chain disruption as a reference point.
       We adjust this to reflect the different composition of the UK economy (either due to       •   Policy response - fiscal: We divide the additional amount the UK government
       the manufacturing/services mix or openness to trade compared to the global                     plans to spend to combat COVID-19 into: a) day-to-day spending; b) additional
       average). Finally, we also incorporate any potential adaptation effects for longer             spending brought forward; and c) negative tax receipts (i.e. cut in taxes). Each of
       lasting scenarios from businesses which switch to alternative suppliers,                       these spending categories is associated with a fiscal multiplier between 0.6 and 1
       dampening this effect.                                                                         which we obtain from the Office for Budget Responsibility (OBR). We do not
                                                                                                      explicitly model the impact of government loan guarantees, though these will help
•      Labour supply impacts are assessed in five categories covering workers that                    to limit downside risks to the economy relative to our two scenarios.
       are: a) self isolating; b) infected and not ill; c) infected and ill; d) caring for
       dependants; e) not affected by the disease. We assume the first four segments of           •   Policy response - monetary: We estimate the sensitivity of UK real GDP growth
       the workforce lose between 75-100% of their working hours during absence and                   to changes in monetary policy using Andy Haldane's speech on the impact of
       calculate the total number of hours worked lost. We combine this analysis with our             monetary policy during the global financial crisis. We assume the monetary policy
       calculation of the additional GDP produced per hour of work estimated by UK                    space available to the Bank of England is consistent with the Governor's
       GDP and the average number of hours worked by an employee in the UK in a                       statement that "We have effectively 200 to 250 basis points of space".
       week. In this analysis, we don't take into account the productivity improvements
       that could potentially result from adjusting to lower staff levels, or the potential for   •   Sector lockdown: We use ONS data for the UK's sector and sub-sector outputs.
       continued home working by those with only mild symptoms.                                       We assume that output in certain “locked-down” sectors will be depressed for
                                                                                                      varying periods of time in the two scenarios. This may include periods of partial
•      Uncertainty - consumer expenditure: We benchmark the shock to household                        lockdown. We do not attempt to model any possible regional or demographic
       expenditure with reference to historical crises and period of economic stress. To              variations in lockdowns.
       derive the economic impact we adjust the expenditure shock based on its duration
       and the relative importance of household expenditure to total GDP.
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Public finances scenarios – our approach and key assumptions
Below we set out further details of the methodology used to develop the public finance scenarios in the report:

•      Our baseline was the Budget 2020 forecast by the OBR, which was                  −    Other measures including business rates holiday for some sectors
       completed in mid-to-late February 2020 and so included little impact                  and potential realised government losses on loan guarantees – the
       from COVID-19 in the UK, both for the economy and the public finances.                latter are hard to quantify but we assume a low loss rate in 2020/21
       The later OBR forecast on 14 April was included as a comparator in                    that builds up over time.
       some slides.
                                                                                        −    Due to lack of data we do not include the potential impact of tax
•      We first estimated the direct cost of the various fiscal stimulus measures            deferrals or any offset from possible government spending savings.
       announced by the government in the Budget on 10 March and
                                                                                    •   We then considered which of these costs might persist in 2021/22 – in
       subsequently up to 23 April 2020. This totalled around £75bn to £110bn
                                                                                        general, most are temporary measures but some may continue so we
       in 2020/21, including:
                                                                                        estimated the second year cost at around £20bn to £30bn in our two
       −      Additional emergency NHS funding in the Budget and later                  scenarios.
       −      Other Budget 2020 measures, which we costed using OBR                 •   We then added in an estimate of how far the budget deficit might rise in
              estimates                                                                 our alternative economic scenarios, based on a standard Treasury rule
       −      Increases in Universal Credit and other benefit, estimated to cost        of thumb on the relationship between GDP growth and the deficit. This
                                                                                        gave an indirect cost estimate of around £80bn to £150bn in 2020/21 in
              £7bn in 2020/21 by Treasury
                                                                                        our two scenarios, falling to around £22bn to £66bn in 2021/22 as the
       −      The job retention scheme for employees is hard to cost with any           economy recovered at different speeds in the two scenarios in 2021.
              certainty, but we estimate its cost at around £18-30bn based on a
              take-up of around seven million and an average pay-out of around      •   We then combined these direct and indirect cost estimates with the OBR
              £1,200 per month, for varying periods in different scenarios (and         baseline forecasts to get estimates of the potential budget deficits in
              allowing for offsets from higher income tax and NIC payments).            2020/21 and 2021/22 in our two scenarios, which in turn provided the
                                                                                        basis for estimates of how the public debt stock would evolve. We
       −      The self-employment support scheme, where we use an IFS cost              excluded Bank of England schemes from public debt estimates since
              estimate of around £9bn, or £15bn in our bumpy exit scenario.             these tend to distort underlying trends in the debt/GDP ratio.

UK Economic Update                                                                                                                                          13 May 2020
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PwC Research survey of employment and home working, April 2020
Below we set out further details of the methodology for our home-working survey, issued as part of our weekly Quantibus
survey.
                                                                                            research projects.
•      An online survey of 1,000 individuals (representative of the UK population
       aged 18 and over) was conducted by the PwC Research team from 16-19              •   To support our return to work analysis, we asked two additional questions:
       April 2020 to understand some of the impacts of COVID-19.                            - “Before the COVID-19 situation arose, how many other workers were you
•      One of the questions on the survey was about how the employment status of            typically physically close to each day (i.e. within a distance of 2 metres)?”
       workers had changed since the lockdown began in late March. The results for          - “Before the COVID-19 situation arose, how many customers were you
       this question were only analysed for around 650 of the total sample who were         typically physically close to each day (i.e. within a distance of 2 metres)?”
       in employment now or at some point in the last 12 months (i.e. excluding         •   Based on the survey results, we calculate an overall score for each sector that
       retired people, full-time students not working, the long-term sick and disabled,     accounts for both worker and customer proximity in the workplace i.e.
       those caring full-time for family members and the long-term unemployed).             ‘workplace sparsity’. These scores feed through to our PwC ‘Return to the
•      A second question on how many of those still working could work from home,           Workplace’ Index as a ‘Risk factor’, holding a 25% weighting.
       and if so what was the impact on their productivity, was only reported for •         In an earlier UK Economic Update, we published results of a survey in late
       around 600 people who remained employed at the time of the survey (i.e,              March on the proportion of UK workers who felt they could work from home.
       excluding those becoming unemployed or inactive since the lockdown began).           Overall, this was true for around half of workers, but this was just 32% for
                                                                                            those earnings less than £20,000 per year and around 70% for those earning
•      Respondents were asked to fill in basic demographic information, what sectors
                                                                                            over £50,000 per year. This reflected both the nature of these jobs and the fact
       they worked in and their income levels. The sample was selected to include
                                                                                            that lower paid workers were more prevalent in lockdown sectors such as non-
       individuals from across the UK on a statistically representative basis.
                                                                                            essential retail, hospitality and leisure. The April survey included updates on
       Participants were taken from a panel that PwC Research uses for regular
                                                                                            these results as well as indications of productivity impacts from home working.
       weekly omnibus surveys on a wide range of topics as an input to market

UK Economic Update                                                                                                                                                  13 May 2020
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Return to Work Index methodology
Below we set out further details of the methodology for our Return to Work Index. We consider the key variables to assess
economic and risk factors for all industry sectors, which are the normalised, weighted and aggregated into an index score.

  Economic Factor(s)                                                 Weight    Factor     Rationale

 GVA: Economic impact of returning to work                                               • The opening up of businesses and the return of employees to work increases business
 (Sector share of total GVA* Sector productivity*GVA impact of                              activity in that sector.
 removing current restrictions).                                      50%     Positive   • Higher productivity sectors produce higher economic benefit for the same level of risk.
 Source: ONS, PwC analysis                                                               • The higher the economic impact of relaxing the restrictions of a sector, the higher the
                                                                                            index score.

  Risk Factor(s)
 Independence from public transport: Share of                                            • Some workers are reliant on public transport to get to work.
 workforce travelling to work through methods other                                      • The higher the share of workers not using public transport the lower the risk of
 than public transport                                                25%     Positive      transmitting COVID-19 and the higher the index score for the sector.
 We calculate a notional index value for each sector based on a
 regional weighted average of the percentage of people who do
 not use public transport as their ‘usual method of travel to work
 (bus, coach, railway train, underground etc.)
 Source: ONS, PwC analysis

 Workplace sparsity                                                                      • Sectors with higher work sparsity will have lower levels of face to face interaction with
                                                                                            workers and customers, lowering the chance of COVID-19 transmission.
 We calculate a notional index value for each sector based on a
 data from our latest PwC Research Survey on the typical level of
                                                                      25%     Positive   • The higher the workplace sparsity for a sector, the higher the risk index score.
 face to face interaction with workers and customers pre-COVID-
 19
 Source: PwC Research Survey, PwC analysis
UK Economic Update                                                                                                                                                            13 May 2020
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