COVID-19 Vaccine Briefing - Science based forecasts for the short- and long-term 29th June 2021 Prepared on behalf of The WTO
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COVID-19 Vaccine Briefing
Science based forecasts for the short- and long-term
29th June 2021
Prepared on behalf of The WTO
Private & Confidential | ©2021 Airfinity Ltd
About Airfinity
Airfinity is a life science analytics company. Working for some of the world’s largest pharma
companies, government agencies, corporates and investors, Airfinity has established itself as an
authoritative provider of predictive insights and accurate, independent information.
We have built the world’s leading COVID-19 science and market intelligence platform.
“Airfinity has been instrumental in our country’s COVID response”
- Head of Vaccine Task Force
AIRFINITY DATA IS USED BY MORE THAN 200 NEWSPAPERS, JOURNALS AND TV NETWORKS GLOBALLY
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Vaccine production has scaled up quickly
Observed vaccine deliveries to date
Based on produced and delivered doses, as of 28/06/2021
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Vaccine production now greater than 3.3 billion, showing current growth rate of more than a billion doses per month
Global cumulative vaccine production over the last month
Over 1 billion doses have been
produced in the last month
314 million doses
produced in the last week
Based on produced and delivered doses, as of 28/06/2021 Private & Confidential | ©2021 Airfinity Ltd 4
Vaccine production could exceed 11 billion in 2021, as more vaccines come through the pipeline
Vaccine production forecast split by candidate
Other vaccines include: (full list in appendix)
COVIran Barekat (Shifa Pharmed)
CoviVac (Chumakov Federal Scientific Center)
FINLAY-FR-2 (Finlay Vaccine Institute)
GRAd-COV2 (Reithera/LeukoCare/Univercells ) 11,856,354,000
INO-4800 (Inovio Pharma) Other
LUNAR-COV19 (Arcturus)
959,204,000
J&J
MVC-COV1901 (Medigen/Dynavax) 517,885,000
NasoVAX (Altimmune) 10,035,069,000 AstraZeneca
QazCovid-in (RI for Biological Safety Problems) Sinopharm
S-268019 (UMN Pharma)
2,137,408,000 Pfizer/BioNTech
SCB-2019 (Clover/Dynavax)
UB-612 (Covaxx) 8,481,562,000 CanSino
ZF2001 (Anhui Zhifei) Sinovac
Vaccine (Medicago/GSK) Bharat
Vaccine (Sanofi/GSK) 7,063,151,000 1,576,923,000
Moderna
EpiVacCorona (VECTOR)
VLA2001 (Dynavax/Valneva) Novavax
ZyCoV-D (Zydus Cadila) 5,824,622,000 Sputnik V
2,179,275,000
4,621,217,000
161,746,000
3,481,228,000
2,856,484,000
1,886,530,000
263,724,000
667,270,000 246,462,000
289,973,000
31/05/2021 30/06/2021 31/07/2021 31/08/2021 30/09/2021 31/10/2021 30/11/2021 31/12/2021
Forecasted on 28/06/2021
Private & Confidential | ©2021 Airfinity Ltd 5Global drug substance production sites for vaccines
Map of agreed production sites for COVID vaccines. Bubble sizes indicate volume
83 sites producing vaccine
drug substance
The map shows production sites where there is known quantities of drug substance. If fill/finish is at the same site as drug substance production, they are included here
Private & Confidential | ©2021 Airfinity LtdGlobally, there are many more CDMOs than in-house production facilities for COVID vaccines
Map of agreed production sites (including fill & finish) for COVID vaccines colour coded by in-house or contracted facilities
Private & Confidential | ©2021 Airfinity LtdMore production forecasted to come from own sites compared to contract production
Forecasted supply of vaccines split by contract or own sites
Production from own sites
Contract production
7,961,929,710
6,785,817,381
5,770,960,906
4,828,786,031
4,015,154,466
1,415,164,045 3,239,394,113
1,034,705,607 391,194,209 2,533,993,397 3,894,424,290
697,933,503 219,447,233 1,923,458,538 3,141,211,238
460,631,227
54,492,574
110,416,457 2,057,006,409 2,553,611,516
940,343,411 1,272,076,350 1,641,649,045
636,004,197
Jan-21 Feb-21 Mar-21 Apr-21 May-21 Jun-21 Jul-21 Aug-21 Sep-21 Oct-21 Nov-21 Dec-21
% production
at own sites 89% 86% 83% 78% 75% 73% 72% 71% 70% 69% 68% 67%
% contract
production 11% 14% 17% 22% 25% 27% 28% 29% 30% 31% 32% 33%
Forecasted on 28/06/2021
For facilities where known Private & Confidential | ©2021 Airfinity LtdThe USA headquarters many companies that produce
subcomponents
Some key subcomponents and materials for vaccine supply chains:
Equipment:
Different equipment are required for vaccine production, including
Bioreactor suppliers (HQ) Lipid suppliers (HQ) those required in manufacturing and storage: E.g. bioreactors and
fridges/freezers.
Japan UK Switzerland
Italy
8.7% 12.5% 12.5%
4.3%
UK
8.7% USA Germany Chemicals:
39.1% 12.5%
To produce vaccines, various chemicals are required. These include
Taiwan 4.3%
Canada 25.0% various buffers throughout the process, and other chemicals such as
8.7%
lipids which are important for the delivery of mRNA vaccines.
Switzerland
4.3% 37.5%
21.7%
Netherlands
Germany USA Consumables:
In addition to large laboratory equipment required to produce vaccines,
various items are required for the manufacturing, storage and
Glass Vials Suppliers (HQ) Syringes and needles suppliers (HQ) administering of vaccines.
India UK China
E.g. glass vials, syringes, needles.
14.3% USA 11.1% 11.1%
South Korea
28.6%
11.1%
Italy
14.3% Japan 22.2% Process:
Vaccines need to be packaged correctly for distribution. For mRNA
vaccines, assembly of the mRNA into lipid nanoparticles is essential.
14.3% Finally, all vaccines need to be filled into glass vials for distribution.
11.1% 33.3%
Germany 28.6%
Germany USA
Japan
These are preliminary numbers and Airfinity is conducting ongoing research.Airfinity forecasts have been realistic to observed production Comparison of Airfinity forecasts (made in early February) vs observed production up until the end of June Airfinity forecast generated in February 2021 Private & Confidential | ©2021 Airfinity Ltd 10
Contents
Macro Overview: Key changes this week 1
Production forecast overview
Appendix
Private & Confidential | ©2021 Airfinity Ltd 11Full list of vaccines included in supply and production models
Supply Production
CVnCoV (Curevac) VLA2001 (Valneva/Dynavax) CVnCoV (Curevac) AG0301-COVID19 (AnGes)
GRAd-COV2
Ad26COVS1 (J&J) Sputnik V (Gamaleya Research Institute) Ad26COVS1 (J&J) (Reithera/LeukoCare/Univercells )
mRNA-1273 (Moderna) EpiVacCorona (VECTOR) mRNA-1273 (Moderna) ZF2001 (Anhui Zhifei)
AZD1222 (University of AZD1222 (University of
Oxford/AstraZeneca) BBIBP-CorV (Beijing/Sinopharm) Oxford/AstraZeneca) VLA2001 (Valneva/Dynavax)
CoviVac (Chumakov Federal Scientific
BNT162b2 (Pfizer/BioNTech) Center) BNT162b2 (Pfizer/BioNTech) Sputnik V (Gamaleya Research Institute)
NVX-CoV2373 (Novavax) INO-4800 (Inovio Pharma) NVX-CoV2373 (Novavax) EpiVacCorona (VECTOR)
Vaccine (Medicago/GSK) MVC-COV1901 (Medigen/Dynavax) Vaccine (Medicago/GSK) BBIBP-CorV (Beijing/Sinopharm)
CoviVac (Chumakov Federal Scientific
SCB-2019 (Clover/Dynavax) UB-612 (Covaxx) SCB-2019 (Clover/Dynavax) Center)
Vaccine (Sanofi/GSK) Ad5-nCoV (CanSino) Vaccine (Sanofi/GSK) INO-4800 (Inovio Pharma)
QazCovid-in (RI for Biological Safety
CoronaVac (Sinovac) Problems) CoronaVac (Sinovac) MVC-COV1901 (Medigen/Dynavax)
IBIO-200 (iBio) COVAXIN (Bharat/ICMR/NIV) IBIO-200 (iBio) UB-612 (Covaxx)
LUNAR-COV19 (Arcturus) ZyCoV-D (Zydus Cadila) LUNAR-COV19 (Arcturus) Ad5-nCoV (CanSino)
mRNA vaccine (Tel Aviv University/Israel QazCovid-in (RI for Biological Safety
hAd5-Covid-19 (ImmunityBio/NantKwest) Institute for Biological Research) hAd5-Covid-19 (ImmunityBio/NantKwest) Problems)
NasoVAX (Altimmune) FINLAY-FR-2 (Finlay Vaccine Institute) NasoVAX (Altimmune) COVAXIN (Bharat/ICMR/NIV)
AG0301-COVID19 (AnGes) S-268019 (UMN Pharma) FINLAY-FR-2 (Finlay Vaccine Institute) ZyCoV-D (Zydus Cadila)
GRAd-COV2 mRNA vaccine (Tel Aviv University/Israel
(Reithera/LeukoCare/Univercells ) COVIran Barekat (Shifa Pharmed) S-268019 (UMN Pharma) Institute for Biological Research)
ZF2001 (Anhui Zhifei) COVIran Barekat (Shifa Pharmed)
Private & Confidential | ©2021 Airfinity Ltd 12MORE INFORMATION
Rasmus Bech Hansen, Co-founder and CEO
rasmus@airfinity.com
Mitesh Chainani, Enterprise Account Director
Private & Confidential | ©2021 Airfinity Ltd 13Disclaimer and Copyright Notice
Copyright notice
All intellectual property rights in this publication and the information published herein are the exclusive property of Airfinity
and may only be used under licence from Airfinity. Without limiting the foregoing, by accessing this publication you agree
that you will not copy or reproduce or recirculate or distribute or use any part of its contents in any form or for any purpose
whatsoever except under valid licence from Airfinity. Unauthorised distribution is strictly prohibited.
Disclaimer
The data and other information published herein are provided on an "as is basis". Airfinity makes no warranties, express or
implied, as to the accuracy, adequacy, timeliness, or completeness of the data or fitness for any particular purpose. Airfinity
shall not be liable for any loss, claims or damage arising from any party's reliance on the data and disclaim any and all
liability relating to or arising out of use of the data to the full extent permissible by law.
Private & Confidential | ©2021 Airfinity Ltd 14THE WORLD’S TRUSTED COVID-19 PLATFORM
Airfinity is a life science analytics company. Working with some of the world’s Airfinity’s COVID-19 data was seen by more
largest pharma companies, government agencies, corporates and investors, it than 2 billion people in 2020.
has established itself as an authoritative provider of new predictive insights
and accurate independent information.
Airfinity has built the world’s leading COVID-19 science and market “Airfinity has been instrumental in our
intelligence platform. country’s COVID response”
The company is headquartered in London and partners with organisations
Head of Government Vaccine Task Force
worldwide.
Private & Confidential | ©2021 Airfinity Ltd
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