COVID-19 Weekly Update - 03 March 2022 - The Security Centre

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COVID-19 Weekly Update - 03 March 2022 - The Security Centre
COVID-19 Weekly Update – 03 March 2022

COVID-19 Weekly Update
03 March 2022
COVID-19 Weekly Update - 03 March 2022 - The Security Centre
COVID-19 Weekly Update – 03 March 2022
Executive Summary
The global incidence of COVID-19 has fallen for one continuous month. This week’s cases decreased by sixteen
percent compared to last week, totalling a little over ten million new cases. The number of deaths has also fallen this
week, by ten percent, to around 60,000. Despite these global declines, the WHO’s Western Pacific region, which
includes Australia, China, Japan and Malaysia among others, reported a rise of thirty-two percent in weekly infections
when compared to last week.
This week Germany is the single country reporting the highest number of COVID-19 infections with 1.12 million, a
weekly decline of eight percent. Other nations reporting high case numbers include South Korea with 1.03 million
cases a rise of sixty-nine percent, and Russia with 920,000 a decline of twenty-six percent. Countries reporting
Omicron continues to dominate the pandemic, making up 99.5 percent of all sequences reported to GISAID in the
last thirty days. Delta sequencing made up 0.3 percent of all submissions. There were six submitted submissions of
the Alpha variant, whilst within this time period, no sequences of Beta, Gamma, Lamba, Mu, or other variations were
submitted.

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Notable Updates
Newly released data from officials at the New York State Department of Health shows that the Pfizer vaccine has
limited effectiveness in preventing infection in children aged between the years of five and eleven. The data appears
to show that whilst it was effective in preventing severe COVID-19 in this age bracket, its efficacy at preventing the
disease declined to as low as twelve percent, just six weeks after vaccination, from an initially percentage value of
sixty-eight. For children aged between twelve and seventeen, protection against the disease given by the Pfizer
vaccine fell from sixty-six percent to fifty-one percent. Both of these efficacies compare unfavourably to Pfizer
performance in adult populations. As a result, health officials in New York have stated that there is a need to seek
out alternative methods to protect children from COVID-19.
A pre-print medical study appears to officially de-bunk the claim that Africa suffered less from COVID-19 than
expected. Whilst the study acknowledges that the continent’s official case figures were much lower than the
international community were perhaps expecting, they point to fact that official case figures rely on countries having
expensive infrastructure to administer and track COVID-19 tests, something many African nations lack. As a result,
this study looked at blood samples from a statistically significant populations samples across the continent and
tracked the presence of anti-bodies. This showed that 65 percent of those involved in the study had immunity to
COVID-19, a far higher figure than researchers expected given the low levels of reported COVID-19 infections and
vaccination across the region. If this figure is extrapolated it would suggest that the continent has seen over 100 times
more infections than officially reported, a figure of around 800 million, as opposed to the officially reported infection
count of 8.2 million.
Researchers in Canada have published an as of yet un-peer reviewed paper, which claims that they have discovered
a case of deer to human transmission of a “highly divergent variant” of COVID-19. As a result of this they state that a
broader monitoring of wildlife is needed to prevent further wild animal human transmission and that better monitoring
is needed of the evolution of the virus in populations of animals known to be infected with it. Little research has been
done to fully establish the list of population species which COVID-19 can infect, however cats – domestic and “big”,
COVID-19 Weekly Update - 03 March 2022 - The Security Centre
COVID-19 Weekly Update – 03 March 2022
dogs, ferrets, otters, mink and now deer are all species which have been infected with COVID-19.

Daily Case and Death Graphs via Worldometer
COVID-19 Weekly Update – 03 March 2022

Select Country Updates
Pakistan                                                       percent, one of the highest globally, although reported
                                                               at least 22,000 cases on 2 March. Rapid public testing
According to health officials, the country in recent days
                                                               has only recently become widespread, as New Zealand
has seen its daily infection count drop to its lowest level
                                                               began to reopen borders to the fully vaccinated and
since 20 January. As of 28 February, the country was
                                                               ease restrictions on travel.
reporting 856 new infections.
                                                               Although pockets of protesters remain in the city, police
As a result of the decline infection rate the country’s
                                                               are likely anticipating that these will clear once the
National Command and Control Centre has stated that
                                                               majority of the disruption has been cleared. As New
they will be allowing the Pakistan-Australia test series
                                                               Zealand continues to ease COVID-19 restrictions, the
between 4 March and 5 April to take place in stadiums
                                                               incidence of anti-vaccine mandate protests will likely
operating at 100 percent of capacity. Alongside this,
                                                               fade even further.
restrictions in the cities of Gilgit, Muzaffarabad, and
Mardan have been lifted. These cities have had their           South Africa
restrictions removed as their daily positivity rate for
                                                               Findings from a recent, limited epidemiological study in
COVID-19 has dropped to be less than 10 percent for
                                                               South Africa have suggested that the country has moved
more than three days in a row.
                                                               into the ‘recovery’ phase in their battle against COVID-
Alongside the dropping of some internal curbs, in light of     19. South Africa was particularly affected by the Delta
the country’s improving COVID-19 situation the                 variant and was the first country to detect the Omicron
government has revised its border policy. People               variant, both of which subsequently drove waves of
travelling into Pakistan no longer need proof of a             infection and prompted national lockdowns across many
negative PCR test, as long as they can prove that they         developed nations.
are fully vaccinated with an approved vaccine.
                                                               The study found that in those over 50 years old, 70
Ireland                                                        percent of unvaccinated individuals were found to
                                                               possess COVID-19 antibodies in their immune systems
The country announced that it has discussed a four step
                                                               – with this number rising to 93 percent of those who had
plan for living with COVID-19. The first element will see
                                                               been vaccinated. Further, the infection fatality risk for
an assessment of the demands COVID-19 is likely to
                                                               COVID-19 was calculated at 0.57 percent which is
place on healthcare with the second phase seeing
                                                               markedly higher than the 0.019 percent calculated for
vaccination centres dismantled. The third phase is likely
                                                               pre-Covid seasonal flu.
to see vaccination schedules set up for those reaching
the age of 18, and the elderly who may need regular            The results indicate at least some degree of hybrid
boosters. The final phase of the plan looks at seeing          immunity emerging amongst the South African
emergency protocols put in place in case a new variant         population, which is theorised to provide greater
emerges.                                                       protection against infection and milder symptoms. As
                                                               such, epidemiologists have concluded that the country
This discussion of this plan for how to live with COVID-
                                                               has begun to enter the ‘recovery’ phase, similar to that
19 comes as the country continued to drop its
                                                               which is evident in countries that have eased their
restrictions kept in place throughout the pandemic. For
                                                               restrictions. Whilst further variants of concern cannot be
instance as of 28 February, the wearing of masks in
                                                               ruled out, the degree of immunity evident in South Africa
retail spaces and on public transport is no longer
                                                               will likely protect against severe infection and
mandatory, whilst close contact rules and social
                                                               overwhelming rates of hospitalisation.
distancing regulations have also been dropped apart
from in healthcare settings.                                   Hong Kong
New Zealand                                                    The Covid-19 fatality rate in Hong Kong is now amongst
                                                               the highest in developed nations following a recent
Police in Wellington have moved to break up the anti-
                                                               surge in deaths amongst the under-vaccinated elderly
vaccine mandate protests which have been ongoing
                                                               population. At least 600 care homes have reported
outside of government buildings in the city for the past
                                                               outbreaks of the virus, with over 3100 residents and
few weeks. Modelled on the trucker protests in Canada,
                                                               almost 1000 staff infected. On 2 March, 55,000 new
roads had been blocked off amid violent clashes
                                                               cases were announced country-wide.
between protestors and police. Vehicles and tents are
being removed from the area with multiple arrests              Data from Johns Hopkins University indicates that Hong
reported, following criticism of the Police Commissioner       Kong has averaged almost 8 deaths per million in the
of New Zealand for not taking action sooner.                   previous week, with 117 daily deaths reported on 1
                                                               March alone. According to Hong Kong Government
New Zealand has a vaccination rate of approximately 95
                                                               data, 91 percent of fatalities had not received both doses
COVID-19 Weekly Update – 03 March 2022
of an approved COVID-19 vaccine.                               fact that the country has always sought to provide free
                                                               advanced healthcare with a focus on preventative
Pressure on officials to control the recent wave of
                                                               treatments, to its citizens. In testament to its healthcare
infections in Hong Kong is mounting, with fatalities likely
                                                               system, Cuba has developed five successful COVID-19
to continue on their current trajectory without immediate
                                                               vaccines.
corrective measures being applied. Already, some
residents have begun to stockpile supplies in                  At the time of writing, 9.8 million of Cuba's 11.2 million
anticipation of renewed lockdowns. Some 75,000                 residents have been fully vaccinated against COVID-19
citizens currently reside in residential care facilities in    so far, whilst a further 5.9 million have received their
Hong Kong. These types of facilities are particularly          booster dose
susceptible to localised spreading of the virus,
                                                               Egypt
particularly given the comparatively low uptake of the
vaccine amongst Hong Kong’s elderly.                           Egypt has seen a decline of 40.4 percent in its COVID-
                                                               19 hospitalisation rate in the last two weeks, when
Cuba
                                                               compared to the first two weeks of February. Alongside
Cuba has this week now recorded five days in a row             this, the country has announced that the country’s week
without a death caused by COVID-19, this comes as the          infection rate has continued to drop from its pandemic
country logged a further 475 new infections 03 March.          high in January 2022.
International health experts state that the island’s           More than thirty million people across the country have
success in supressing COVID-19 infections comes from           now been vaccinated, whilst a further forty million have
its widespread vaccination coverage, and the fact that it      received at least one dose. Alongside this, one million
moved quickly in looking to vaccinate children and             have had their booster dose. In other vaccine news, the
younger citizens. As a result of this, Cuba did not see a      country is one in Africa which has been chosen to be a
traditional “Omicron peak” when the variant arrived on         production hub for mRNA vaccines.
the island. This success is likely to have bolstered by the
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