Die neue geldpolitische Strategie der Europäischen Zentralbank - Prof. Dr. Isabel Schnabel, Mitglied des Direktoriums der Europäischen Zentralbank
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Die neue geldpolitische Strategie der Europäischen Zentralbank Prof. Dr. Isabel Schnabel, Mitglied des Direktoriums der Europäischen Zentralbank Berlin, 26. August 2021
Weltweiter
Rubric Rückgang des realen Gleichgewichtszinses
Schätzungen des Gleichgewichtszinses in den Schätzungen des Gleichgewichtszinses im Euroraum
Vereinigten Staaten (in % p. a.) (in % p. a.)
Range of estimates Median of estimates Range of all natural rate estimates Range of smoother estimates
6 6
4 4
2 2
0 0
-2 -2
-4 -4
1999 2001 2003 2005 2007 2009 2011 2013 2015 2017 2019 1999 2001 2003 2005 2007 2009 2011 2013 2015 2017 2019
Sources: Holston, Laubach, Williams (2017); Fiorentini, Galesi, Pérez-Quirós, Sentana (2018). Sources: WGEM Report “The natural rate of interest: estimates, drivers, and challenges to monetary policy”, OP, No 217; Ajevskis
Note: Ranges span point estimates to reflect filter and parameter uncertainty. (2018); Brand, Goy, Lemke (2020); Brand, Mazelis (2019); Fiorentini, Galesi, Pérez-Quirós, Sentana (2018); Geiger and Schupp
Latest observation: 2019 Q4. (2018); Holston, Laubach, Williams (2017); Jarocinski (2017); Johannsen and Mertens (forthcoming).
Notes: Ranges span point estimates across models to reflect model uncertainty and no other source of r* uncertainty. The dark
shaded area highlights smoother r* estimates that are statistically less affected by cyclical movements in the real rate of interest.
Latest observation: 2019 Q4.
2
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Rubric Rückgang der Inflation im Euroraum
HVPI-Gesamtinflation HVPI ohne Energie und Nahrungsmittel
(Veränderung gegen Vorjahr in %) (Veränderung gegen Vorjahr in %)
HICP Average 1970-1998 HICPX Average 1970-1998
Average 1999-2008 Average 2009-2021 Average 1999-2008 Average 2009-2021
5
20
4
15
3 2.8%
10
6.3% 2 1.6%
5 1.1%
2.2% 1
1.2%
0
0
-5 -1
1970 1975 1980 1985 1990 1995 2000 2005 2010 2015 2020 1991 1995 1999 2003 2007 2011 2015 2019
Sources: Eurostat and ECB calculations. Sources: Eurostat and ECB calculations.
Latest observation: July 2021. Note: HICPX refers to HICP excluding energy and food.
Latest observation: July 2021.
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3Wohnimmobilienpreise
Rubric steigen schneller als Verbraucherpreise
HVPI und Preise für Wohneigentum
(Veränderung gegen Vorjahr in %)
HICP Residential property prices
10
8
6
4
2
0
-2
-4
-6
1999 2004 2009 2014 2019
Source: ECB, Eurostat.
Latest observations: July 2021 for HICP and 2021 Q1 for ECB residential property
price index.
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4Wahrgenommene
Rubric Asymmetrie könnte Inflationserwartungen dämpfen
Umfrage- und marktbasierte Maße für
Längerfristige makroökonomische Effekte: Inflationserwartungen
Symmetrie um 1,9% im Vergleich mit Asymmetrie (Veränderung gegen Vorjahr in %)
(Veränderung gegen Vorjahr in % und Abweichung in %) 5y ahead SPF mean 1y4y ILS
3.0
2.5
2.0
1.5
1.0
0.5
0.0
2006 2008 2010 2012 2014 2016 2018 2020
Sources: Cecioni, Grasso and Pisani (2020). Sources: Bloomberg, Refinitiv, and ECB calculations.
Notes: Results based on stochastic simulations imposing the lower bound on nominal interest rates. Notes: The 1y4y ILS refers to the inflation-linked swap curve. Survey expectations from
Absent the lower bound, average inflation would be equal to the target and the output gap would be the Survey of Professional Forecasters (SPF) refer to the mean of the reported probability
zero. The long-run level of the real rate is assumed to be 0.5%. It is assumed that the central bank distributions for year-on-year expectations 5 years ahead.
abstains from using non-standard measures. Latest observation: 2021 Q3 (SPF), July 2021 (market data).
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5Wichtigere
Rubric Rolle für Finanzstabilitätsrisiken im neuen Analyserahmen
Monetary Policy
Decisions
Instrument choice Proportionality
Policy Deliberations Stance and design assessment
Economic Analysis Monetary and Financial Analysis
Macro-financial linkages Transmission
Analytical inputs
Real and nominal developments Enhanced financial stability analysis
Analysis over short, medium and longer-term horizons, covering central scenarios and risks
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6Spürbare
Rubric Zunahme physischer Klimarisiken
Versicherungsschäden durch Katastrophen Zahl relevanter Schadenereignisse durch
weltweit (linke Skala: Mrd USD im Jahr 2020; rechte Skala: in %) Naturkatastrophen weltweit
(linke Skala: Zahl der Ereignisse; rechte Skala: in %)
Man-made disasters
Climatological events
Weather-related catastrophes Hydrological events
Earthquake/tsunami Meteorological events
% weather-related losses - 5-year moving average Geophysical events
160 100 % climate-related events - 5-year moving average
900 95
140 90
800 94
80
120 700 93
70
100 92
60 600
91
80 50 500
90
40 400
60 89
30 300
40 88
20 200 87
20 10 100 86
0 0 0 85
1975 1980 1985 1990 1995 2000 2005 2010 2015 2020 1985 1990 1995 2000 2005 2010 2015
Source: Swiss Re Institute and ECB calculations. Source: Munich Re NatCatService and ECB calculations.
Latest observation: June 2020. Latest observation: December 2019.
Notes: Climatological events: drought and wildfire. Geophysical events: earthquake, tsunami,
volcanic activity. Hydrological events: floods. Meteorological events: all types of storms.
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7Verzerrungen
Rubric zugunsten emissionsintensiver Sektoren im Unternehmensanleiheportfolio
„Marktportfolio“ vs. EZB-Bestände vs. Emissionsintensität der Sektoren
(Marktanteile)
Emission ECB holdings Market portfolio
Automobile
Agriculture
Dirty
Manufacturing
Utilities
Transportation
Other
Manufacturing
Services
0 0.1 0.2 0.3 0.4 0.5 0.6 0.7
Source: Papoutsi, Piazzesi, Schneider (2021). Data sources: ECB (SHS & CSDB), Eurostat, Orbis.
Notes: Market shares measured as capital income by sector. Emission intensity measured by Scope 1 air emissions by sector. “Dirty Manufacturing” = oil & coke, chemicals, basic metals, nonmetallic minerals.
Other Manufacturing = food, beverages, tobacco, textiles, leather, wood, paper, pharmaceuticals, electronics, electrical equipment, machinery, furniture, construction, and other manufacturing.
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8Rubric
Vielen Dank für Ihre
Aufmerksamkeit!
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