Scenari macroeconomici e finanziari 2020 - Giorgio di Giorgio | Vice Rettore, Università LUISS Roma - Deloitte
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Scenari macroeconomici e finanziari 2020 Giorgio di Giorgio | Vice Rettore, Università LUISS Roma
Agenda
1 – Il quadro congiunturale. Rallentamento verso recessione.
2 – Liquidita’ e rischi finanziari
3 – Le difficolta’ in Europa
4 – L’Italia e i nostri problemi strutturali: una agenda ”vecchia”, sempre attuale
2
Forecasts revised downward mostly everywhere
3
The medium term macro environment
Growth acceleration of emerging countries (with respect to developed ones) begins in the years 2000. In
the same period inflation rates converge (in part).
Real GDP growth
'80s '90s '00-'07 '08-'18 '19 estim '20 estim
World Economy 3.2 3.1 4.5 3.4 3.5 3.6
Developed countries 3.1 2.8 2.7 1.4 2.0 1.7
Emerging countries 3.2 3.6 6.6 5.0 4.5 4.9
Consumer inflation
'80s '90s '00-'07 '08-'18 '19 estim '20 estim
World Economy 15.8 20.2 4.2 3.7 3.8 3.6
Developed countries 6.5 2.9 2.1 1.6 1.7 2.0
Emerging countries 36.6 55.4 6.8 5.6 5.1 4.6
10
Real GDP grow th (source IMF) Consumer inf lation (source IMF)
8 115
emerging countries
6 95
4 75
2 55
developed countries
0 emerging countries 35
developed countries
-2 15
-4 -5
80 85 90 95 00 05 10 15 20 25 80 85 90 95 00 05 10 15 20 25
Source: IMF
4Who drives global growth
Emerging countries produce almost 60% of global GDP (in 2000 their share was 43%) and represent some
70% of global annual growth.
% 65
Distribution of World GDP
(GDP measured at PPP, source IMF)
60
57%
59%
55
developed countries
50
emerging countries 45
41%
43% 40
35
90 92 94 96 98 00 02 04 06 08 10 12 14 16 18 20
5L’orologio del ciclo nei maggiori paesi (dati terzo trimestre 2019)
628 novembre 2019|Prof. Giorgio Di Giorgio
Risks evident in the world trade fall….
728 novembre 2019|Prof. Giorgio Di Giorgio
….in a reduction of dinamism in China
8Monetary policy challenges
In a world of no inflation to be fought, central banks are again in an expansionary mood
The Fed stopped its normalization path by reducing rates and stopping the downward
adjustment of its balance sheet
The ECB is re activating the bazooka
A fiscal role for monetary policy?
What else in the Eurozone?
9Liquidity and the risks of a new financial crisis
Abundant liquidity keeps being the model
Negative interest rates even for long maturities in gov bonds
Very Low risk adjusted returns in private debt
High indebtness of firms and governments (less worrying for
households)
Asset inflation: high valuations in equity and bond markets
fragility and risks!!!
However: Banks much more capitalized, leverage of brokerage
firms much lower than in 2007, profit conditions of firms still pretty
sound
10German industrial production slowing down, despite many
favourable conditions
135
130
125
120
115
110
Indice 2002=100
105
100
95
90
85
80
75
'02 '03 '04 '05 '06 '07 '08 '09 '10 '11 '12 '13 '14 '15 '16 '17 '18
Italia Francia Spagna Germania 100
1128 novembre 2019|Prof. Giorgio Di Giorgio
….and in further damage provoked by a hard Brexit or no deal
12EU Parliament more fragmented than ever: a large coalition needed
1328 novembre 2019|Prof. Giorgio Di Giorgio
Focus Italy: Italy is the weak link in the Eurozone
GDP Pro-capite 1992-2018: Italy, UK vs major countries
(100 = 31/12/1992)
250
225
200
175
150
125
100
75
92 94 96 98 00 02 04 06 08 10 12 14 16 18
USA United Kingdom Italy Germany France 100
Source: GaveKal, Bloomberg, Profilo Investment Advisory | 14 |28 novembre 2019|Prof. Giorgio Di Giorgio
Long period GDP per capita dynamics
Italy Euro Area USA France Germany UK Spain Japan
1951-60 5,4 4,3 1,8 3,7 7,1 2,3 3,5 7,6
1961-70 4,9 3,7 3,0 4,4 3,5 2,2 6,3 8,9
1971-80 3,1 2,4 2,2 2,7 2,7 1,8 2,4 3,3
1981-90 2,2 1,8 2,4 2,0 2,0 2,8 2,6 4,0
1991-00 1,6 1,5 2,2 1,7 1,6 2,2 2,5 1,0
2001-10 -0,1 0,5 0,8 0,6 1,1 1,0 0,8 0,6
2011-18 -0,1 0,7 1,5 0,8 1,5 1,2 1,1 1,2
1528 novembre 2019|Prof. Giorgio Di Giorgio
Italy: Our Structural Problems
Low productivity
Low competitivity
Fiscal fragility: High public debt-gdp ratio nothwistanding sound fiscal flows
Banking fragility: unprofitable banks, consolidation needed
Inefficient labor and goods markets
High unemployment and low participation in the South, among women and the young
Excessive weight of SMEs, and of micro-firms among the latter
Excessive burocracy, inefficient and costly PA
Service sectors highly regulated and protected
Inadequate infrastructures (material and immaterial)
High costs of politics and too many (and inefficiently coordinated) decision levels
Lack of Assesment-Evaluation-Intervention procedures in public spending
Too many laws, rare enforcement
Slow and inefficient Justice
High taxes on families and firms
Costly and inefficient local public services
Quite Low Social expenditure (excluding pensions) 1628 novembre 2019|Prof. Giorgio Di Giorgio
Long history of (shy) attempts for structural reforms
Change is necessary
All governments have failed, for different reasons
From macro to micro policies, based on right Incentives to agents behavior
Comprehensive fiscal reform needed
Recomposition of public expenditure needed (more infrastructure and human capital,
less subsidies, reduced purchases for the PA, proper dealing with health, ageing and
migration)
Environmental interventions needed (Justice, burocracy..)
Redistribution policies?
Return to dynamism is the true challenge
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