DOST-PROJECT NOAH El-Nino - AMF Lagmay
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DOST-PROJECT NOAH
El-Nino
AMF Lagmay
Consequences of El Niño • El Niño is a disruption of the ocean- atmosphere system in the Tropical Pacific having important consequences for weather and climate around the globe.
Sendong disaster Iligan UP NIGS team
DOST PROJECTS UNDER PROJECT NOAH
In response to President Aquino’s instructions
to put in place a responsive program for:
1) flood mitigation, specifically targeting a 6
hour flood early warning system for
communities along 18 major river systems;
2) enhancement of geohazard maps and;
3) enhancement of storm surge vulnerability
maps
the DOST is presenting the
Nationwide Operational Asessment of
Hazards
DEPARTMENT OF SCIENCE AND TECHNOLOGY
DOST PROGRAMS UNDER THE NOAH PROGRAM
Project NOAH
HydroMetDREAM-LIDARFloodNET
Hazard Information
Landslides Doppler System Storm Surge
Sensors Media and Development
Geohazards
Developmen
t
Coastal
Landslides
Doppler
Hazard
HydroMet Erosion
Information
Sensors
FloodNET
DREAM-LIDAR
and
and Geohazards
System
Storm
Media Surge
Development
Development
• The difference between weather and climate is a measure of time. Weather is what conditions of the atmosphere are over a short period of time, and climate is how the atmosphere "behaves" over relatively long periods of time. Source: http://www.nasa.gov/mission_pages/noaa-n/climate
PAGASA has been closely monitoring the oceanic and atmospheric conditions in the tropical Pacific that could lead to possible development of an El Niño. A majority of climate models indicate that El Niño may develop this year. El Niño is characterized by unusually warm ocean surface temperatures in the central and eastern equatorial Pacific (CEEP).
The sea surface temperature anomaly (SSTA) over the tropical Pacific remained to be El Niño Southern Oscillation (ENSO)- neutral during the past several months. The established threshold of SSTA for an El Niño phenomenon is 0.5°C or higher during a three-month period.
PAGASA has already noted significant increase in the SSTA from 0.2 to 0.4°C from April 21 to April 28, 2014. Because of this development and as climate models predict that this condition may persist for the next nine months, PAGASA is foreseeing the onset of El Niño in June which may peak during the last quarter of 2014 and may last up to the first quarter of 2015.
El Niño could affect the normal rainfall pattern in the country generally resulting in reduced rainfall. Different parts of the country may experience varying rainfall impacts. PAGASA will be furnishing monthly rainfall outlook for six months for the different parts of the country.
The country could still experience normal number of tropical cyclone this year. However, El Niño causes the behavior of tropical cyclones to become erratic, affecting its tracks and intensity. The tropical cyclone tracks are expected to shift northward and its intensity could become stronger.
Superimposed tracks of typhoons
15
that entered PAR from 1951-2013
PAR – Philippine Area of ResponsibilityPAGASA will continue to closely monitor the tropical Pacific and updates/advisories shall be issued as appropriate. Concerned agencies are advised to take precautionary measures to mitigate the potential impacts of this phenomenon. MARIO G. MONTEJOSecretary, DOST
HYDROMET SENSORS More than 1000 automated rain gauges (ARG), automated stream gauges (ASG) and automated weather stations (AWS)
HYDROMET SENSORS
Tropical Storm Gorio19
Cloud Trail Code: Radar Images for September 19, 2012 10:00 UTC to 13:00 UTC
3Cloud Trails from Accumulation
September 19, 2012 10:00 UTC to 13:00 UTC
3Longer eigenvector (major axis of approximate ellipse)
34-hour forecasted images (by advection)
3Radar images and forecast images
3Pinatubo
Balikabo
k
Natib
Marivele
sPinatubo
Natib
a y
a B
n il
Ma
Marivele
sSample satellite-
derived maps
• 8-day maps AA B
a. NDVI
b. LST
c. Soil Moisture
d. Precipitation
• Maps can also
be produced as
C D
10-day, monthly,
seasonal, and
annual
composites for
all parametersNew Technologies IBM Blue Gene supercomputer • Generate 7-day weather forecast at 3 kilometer resolution • Update the forecast every 3 hrs
1.5 km model versus satellite imagery
every 3 hours
Simulate
d
SatelliteExamples
Forecast volume of
Rainfall in millimeters
accumulated rainfall
over 24 hours per
watershed to give a
flood warning lead
time by at least a
day.Proposed Flood Advisory System
190mm rainfall in 24hrs 240mmExamples
129mm rainfall in 24hrs rainfall in
24hrs
Flood Flood Flood
Advisory Advisory Advisory
#1 #2 #3
33Examples
Storm surge
Storm surge height in cm
forecasts at least 2
days in advance;
Typhoon track,
strength, warnings,
days in advanceExamples Events planning; hydropower; transport planning; business planning; general weather
Examples Agricultural planning; reservoir control; energy; commerce; state planning, drought, etc.
Examples
12
10
Rainfall (mm)
8
6
4
2
0Examples
Rainfall
forecast with
millimeters
climate change
projections for
each
watershedUS NOAA’s Seamless Suites of
Products
Automated rainfall
now-casting (every
15 minutes) for up
to 4 hours ahead
-Project
Source: NOAA NCEP NOAH/Climate-XUS NOAA’s Seamless Suites of
Products
Hourly weather
forecast up to 7
days ahead
PAGASA, Proj.
Source: NOAA NCEP
NOAH-WISEUS NOAA’s Seamless Suites of
Products
Seasonal forecast (i.e.
daily: for up to 30 days
ahead and weekly: for 1- to
6- months ahead)
UK Unified Model
subscribed by DOST-
Source: NOAA NCEP
Project NOAHUS NOAA’s Seamless Suites of
Products
Interannual
and decadal
outlook
(PAGASA &
UK Unified
Models)
Source: NOAA NCEPUS NOAA’s Seamless Suites of
Products
Climate
projections
Now 25 km
downscaled to
8 km (PAGASA
& UK Unified
Source: NOAA NCEP
models)UK Met office
NOW
2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016LIDAR
LIDAR
AR Compostela Municipality Town Proper
AR Compostela Municipality Town Proper
nity scale maps, development planning, emergency p
53
Barangay level landslide hazard map
54
Department of Science and TechnologySuperimposed tracks of typhoons
57
that entered PAR from 1951-2013
PAR – Philippine Area of ResponsibilityUN
AVENUE
MALATE
58
Storm surge (1.8 m height Typhoon Pedring) - inundation map for ManilaA hundred years
from now, during
2010
2110
2060
high tide, large
parts of Navotas
will be 4 meters
underwater and
Manila under 2
meters of water.
Flood Depth
(m)
60DOST
Currently
PROJECT
available
NOAH
Landslide
LANDSLID
Hazard
E HAZARD
Map
MAP
for
Northern
LeyteIFSAR DIGITAL ELEVATION MODEL
SHALLOW LANDSLIDES
LANDSLIDE INVENTORIES
TRUCTURALLY CONTROLLED LANDSLIDES
BARANGAY BORDER
POSSIBLE LANDSLIDE EXTENTS
Landslide
Hazard Type Current map
Enhanced map
High 62.53%
28.34%
Moderate 10.54%
19.91%
Low 20.61%
4.22% 62
Department of Science and Technology
Safe 6.32%PHILIPPINE UNIVERSITIES’ SCIENCE OBSERVER
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