DSHR Strategy Evaluation Project - Labour Market Context and Future Prospects in Ontario's Developmental Services Sector - Labour Market Analysis

 
DSHR Strategy
Evaluation Project
  Labour Market Context and
  Future Prospects in Ontario’s
  Developmental Services Sector

                                  Queen’s University
                                  Employment Relations
                                  Programs

                                  Richard P. Chaykowski
                                  138 Union St.
                                  Kingston, ON K7L 3N6
Richard P. Chaykowski, Professor, Employment Relations Programs, Faculty
of Arts and Science, and Professor, Faculty of Law (cross-appointed), Queen’s
University.

This report is part of the Queen’s University DSHR Strategy Evaluation Project,
funded by the Ontario Ministry of Community and Social Services. The
conclusions in this report are solely the responsibility of the author, and do
not necessarily reflect the views of Ontario Ministry of Community and Social
Services or the Government of Ontario.

Labour market analysis of the developmental services sector
Table of Contents
> Introduction...................................................................................................................... 1

> Labour Market Analysis.................................................................................................. 2

> Labour Supply, Human Capital Development, and the Development of a
Professional Qualified Workforce.................................................................................... 13

> Ensuring Labour Supply and Quality of Care in Social and Community Services
through Human Capital Development........................................................................... 19

> References........................................................................................................................ 25

Table of Figures
FIGURE 1: Gender characteristics of key comparators, 2010....................................... 2

FIGURE 2: Workforce employment status, key comparators, 2010............................ 3

FIGURE 3: Average annual income, social and community services workers and
key comparators, 2010......................................................................................................... 4

FIGURE 4: Average hourly wage offered and paid (full-time) Ontario 2016............. 5

FIGURE 5: Unemployment rates among key comparators .......................................... 6

FIGURE 6: Average lowest / highest full-time wages paid, Ontario 2016.................. 9

FIGURE 7: Employment growth rates, 2007 (base year) to 2016............................... 10

TABLE 1: Projected employment growth rates and job openings,
social and community service workers and key comparators, 2017 - 2021............... 10

TABLE 2: Social and community services workers, Employment by education,
2016...................................................................................................................................... 14

TABLE 3: College DSW Enrollment by College, Ontario, 2013 - 2016..................... 15

TABLE 4: PANEL A. Distribution of DSPs by highest level of education
attainment, by employment status.................................................................................. 18

TABLE 4: PANEL B. Distribution of DSPs by employment status, by highest level
of educational attainment................................................................................................. 18

Labour market analysis of the developmental services sector
> Introduction
This report is intended to inform stakeholders about the labour market
context for social and community services workers, possible strategies to
enhance the human capital investment and development, and the growth of a
professionalized, qualified workforce.

The focus of the analysis is on workers classified as “social and community
service workers.” The report uses the National Occupational Classification
(NOC) system which corresponds to National and Provincial level data
published by Statistics Canada. It is important to note that the classification for
“social and community service workers,” includes a broader set of occupations
than direct support professionals in the developmental services sector.

For purposes of the labour market profile, two key comparator groups include
“nurse aides, orderlies and patient service associates”, and “elementary and
secondary school assistants.” Although there are a variety of potential criteria
for deciding relevant comparator groups, these two groups were chosen based
upon the observation that social and community services workers often seek
employment in these “allied” occupations.1 For this reason, the social and
community service workers are compared to these two groups in this labour
market analysis.2

In the first main section, the Labour Market, the report provides an overview
of the labour force and labour market related to social and community
service work in Ontario. The subsequent section identifies key pressures on
labour demand and wages in the occupation, provides a profile of the current
education and training levels of employees in the social and community service
occupation, and identifies significant systemic challenges regarding achieving
the goal of enhancing skill qualifications in the social and community service
occupation.

The final section focuses on a strategies to ensure high quality of care in social
and community services through human capital development, while ensuring
adequate labour supply; specifically, delineating the public interest and policy
considerations in strengthening the Developmental Service Worker (DSW)
trade through enhanced occupational credentialing or licensing, in order to
achieve improved labour market outcomes.

Labour market analysis of the developmental services sector                           1
> Labour Market Analysis
This section provides an overview of the main characteristics of the labour force
and key labour market indicators (outcomes) related to social and community
service workers in Ontario.

PAY AND EMPLOYMENT CHARACTERISTICS

In 2016, the “social and community service” occupation in Ontario had a labour
force size of about 53,470 workers. This compares to a labour force of 86,530
for the “nurse aides, orderlies and patient service associates” occupation, and
44,855 in the “elementary and secondary school assistants” occupation.3

The profile of Ontario social and community service workers intersects
significantly with several important characteristics of broader segments of the
Ontario workforce and features of the labour market, including relatively low
pay, nonstandard employment, and contingent work.4

PREDOMINANTLY FEMALE

As shown in Figure 1, social and community service workers are 78% female;
this is not quite as high as the proportion female in the nurse aides, orderlies
and patient services occupation (at 88%), or teacher assistants occupation (at
91%), but all three occupations are overwhelmingly female-dominated.

FIGURE 1: Gender characteristics of key comparators, 2010

          12%                           22%                            9%
          Male                          Male                           Male

                  88%                            78%                           91%
                 Female                         Female                        Female

Nurse aides, orderlies and       Social and community         Elementary and secondary
patient service associates          service workers            school teacher assistants

Labour market analysis of the developmental services sector                                2
EMPLOYED MOSTLY IN FULL-TIME POSITIONS,
ALTHOUGH THE PROPORTION PART-TIME IS VERY SIGNIFICANT.

The majority of social and community service workers (58%) are engaged in
paid employment and employed full-time; although, part-time employment
is a significant feature of the occupation (at 42%). This profile of full/part-
time employment is similar to the nurse aides, orderlies and patient services
occupation (at 51% part-time), but is in stark contrast to the especially high
proportion of part-time employees (at 87% part-time) in the teacher assistants
occupation.

FIGURE 2: Workforce employment status, key comparators, 2010

                                                                            13%
                                                                          Full-time
                                    42%
      51%       49%               Part-time
    Part-time Full-time                         58%                 87%
                                              Full-time           Part-time

  Nurse aides, orderlies and     Social and community         Elementary and secondary
  patient service associates        service workers            school teacher assistants

IN RELATIVELY LOW-PAY POSITIONS

All three occupations are relatively low income; compared, for example, to the
average annual income across all occupations in the labour market (see Figure
3). However, income, as a measure of “pay” can mask important differences
in other factors that determine earnings, particularly, hours of work.5
Consequently, the prevalence of part-time work in an occupation would be
expected to be a major factor affecting overall average earnings (hence income).

Labour market analysis of the developmental services sector                                3
FIGURE 3: Average annual income, social and community services workers and key comparators, 2010

$80000

$70000
                $62,201
$60000

$50000                                                        $46,021
                                        $38,130                                       $36,456
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In the case of social and community service workers, average income is affected
(relative to average income across occupations) by the fact that there is a high
incidence of part-time employment.

Controlling for hours of work (i.e., for the high proportion of part-time
employees) by considering just full-time workers, in 2016 social and community
service workers were paid an average hourly wage of $26.10 as compared to the
all-occupation average of $28.45 (refer to Figure 4); the average wage of social
and community service workers was, however, higher than the average wage
in the nurse aides, orderlies and patient services occupation and in the teacher
assistants occupation, respectively.

Labour market analysis of the developmental services sector                                        4
FIGURE 4: Average hourly wage offered and paid (full-time) Ontario 2016

$30                $28.45
                                                                     $26.10
$25
                                                                                                 $21.75
       $20.40                                $20.50
$20                                $18.10                   $18.50                     $18.40
                                                                                                            Average full-time wage paid

$15

$10                                                                                                         Average wage offered

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UNEMPLOYMENT AND VACANCY RATES

UNEMPLOYMENT RATES

The national unemployment rate among social and community service
workers was approximately 4.0% in 2016. This rate was similar to the
national unemployment rate in the nurse aides, orderlies and patient services
occupation (at 3.4%), and teacher assistants occupation (at 3.3%).6 Therefore,
social and community service employees work in an occupation that may be
characterized as having a relatively low unemployment rate, as compared to
the key comparator occupations – and much lower than the overall national
unemployment rate of roughly 7%.7

Labour market analysis of the developmental services sector                                                                           5
FIGURE 5: Unemployment rates among key comparators

5%
                    3.9%                              4.2%
4%
                                                                            3.1%
3%

2%

1%

0%
      Nurse aides, orderlies and          Social and community   Elementary and secondary
      patient service associates             service workers      school teacher assistants

 (Source: Statistics Canada, 2011 Household Survey)

In Ontario, the unemployment rate in the social and community service
occupation was 3.7% – which is lower than the national unemployment rate in
the social and community service occupation (at 4.0%), and therefore well below
of the overall national unemployment rate across all occupations (at roughly
7%).8

VACANCY RATES

Nationally, in the fourth quarter of 2016 the ratio of job vacancies to the labour
force size in the social and community service occupation was at about 2.6%
– as compared to the overall vacancy rate in the labour force of roughly 2%.9
Therefore, there appears to be a relatively high vacancy rate in the social and
community service occupation—30 percent higher than the overall vacancy
rate.

In contrast, the ratio of job vacancies to the labour force size in the nurse aides,
orderlies and patient services occupation, at 2.2%, was much closer to the overall
rate in the labour force of about 2%; and, perhaps as expected given industry
trends in employment in teaching and related professions, the vacancy rate
in the teacher assistants occupation (at 0.7%) was substantially lower than the
overall national average.

LABOUR MARKETS AND WAGE OFFERS

Since the educational requirements are broadly comparable across the three
comparator occupations, all else being equal, wage offers may be expected to be
similar as well. In general, in labour markets (or in a specific occupation) where

Labour market analysis of the developmental services sector                                   6
the demand for labour exceeds supply, (e.g., characterized by relatively low
unemployment rates and high vacancy rates) initial wage offers may be “bid up”
as employers seek to attract workers.

There are a number of factors that could affect relative demand and supply of
workers in the social and community service occupation. These factors result in
different wage offers and, therefore, differences in relative wages across the three
comparator occupations. In turn, differences in wages would be one factor that
affects the relative attractiveness of the occupations.

Excess demand for labour could be primarily the result of increases in the
demand for labour in an occupation (e.g., in developmental services because
of an increase in demand for support services), or constraints in the supply
of labour that creates (or exacerbates any existing) excess labour demand
conditions; or both. For example, there could be supply constraints in an
occupation because there are enrollment limits in formal education programs,
or apprenticeship programs.

We have no “summary measures” of whether or not there are excess demand
(or supply) conditions in the social and community service occupation; nor do
have direct summary measures of the relative importance of any supply-side or
demand-side pressures. However, we have measures of two relevant indicators of
labour market conditions, including unemployment rates and job vacancies:

ƒƒ The unemployment rate, although somewhat higher than the unemployment
   rate in the nurse aides, orderlies and patient services occupation, and the
   teacher assistants occupations, it is considerably below the national average;
   and,

ƒƒ The vacancy-to-labour-force-size ratio is higher than the national
   average, and higher than in the nurse aides, orderlies and patient services
   occupation, and the teacher assistants occupations.

The overall low unemployment rate in the social and community service
occupation is consistent with a relatively tight labour market; in addition the
relatively higher vacancy ratio, in the context of low unemployment rates,
suggests that there is no excess supply of labour, as employers continue to have
vacancies that are higher than in the comparator occupations.

While the differences in these indicators are not pronounced – so that these
results should be interpreted with a high degree of caution – the indicators are

Labour market analysis of the developmental services sector                            7
consistent with a relatively tight labour market in the social and community
service occupation; to the extent that this is the case, then (all else being equal)
this would be expected to place some upward pressure on actual wage offers in
the social and community service occupation.

Across the social and community service, the nurse aides, orderlies and
patient services occupation, and the teacher assistants occupations, the average
offered wage was very similar – in the range of about $18.10 to $18.50. While
the observed average wage paid (for full-time employees) was higher than the
offered wage in all three occupations, the difference in actual versus offered
wage – at roughly $7.60 – was greatest in the social and community service
occupation (refer to Figure 4). This is consistent with the offered wage being “bid
up” over time.

FIGURE 6: Average lowest / highest full-time wages paid, Ontario 2016

 $35
                             $31.95

 $30
                                                                        $27.00
                  $25.80
                                                  $25.20
 $25
                                        $21.90                $22.50                      $22.00

 $20
                                                                                 $17.70

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 Source: Statistics Canada, Table 285-0051 - Job Vacancy and Wage Survey (JVWS)

Another indicator of the relative wage is the wage range across occupations; this
is the average lowest wage paid versus the average highest wage paid. This wage
range is provided for the social and community service occupation, and its key
comparators, in Figure 6.

Although the average hourly wage offered in all three occupations was in the
range of $18.10 to $18.50 (Figure 4), the data available from Statistics Canada

Labour market analysis of the developmental services sector                                        8
shows a higher range in the social and community service occupation.

ƒƒ The average lowest hourly wage paid in the social and community service
   occupation was highest (at $22.50); and,

ƒƒ The average highest hourly wage paid in the social and community service
   occupation was also highest (at $27.00).

Taken together, these results are consistent with there being a relatively tight
labour market in the social and community service occupation.

RECENT EMPLOYMENT GROWTH TRENDS, AND JOB OPENING AND EMPLOYMENT
PROJECTIONS10

The patterns of employment growth rates for the social and community service
occupations, the nurse aides, orderlies and patient services occupation, and the
teacher assistants occupations, have been volatile over the past decade (refer to
Figure 7; base year for employment changes is 2007). Despite the considerable
variation in employment growth from year-to-year,11

ƒƒ The long term trends in employment in the social and community
   service occupation, and in the nurse aides, orderlies and patient services
   occupation, displayed long term growth;

ƒƒ Overall growth in the nurse aides, orderlies and patient services occupation
   exceeded that in the social and community service occupation by roughly
   20%.

ƒƒ In marked contrast, in the past decade, employment growth in the teacher
   assistants occupation was generally negative.

Labour market analysis of the developmental services sector                         9
FIGURE 7: Employment growth rates, 2007 (base year) to 2016

  50%
                                                                                                    Elementary and secondary
  40%                                                                                               school teacher assistants

  30%                                                                                               Social and community
                                                                                                    service workers
  20%
                                                                                                    Nurse aides, orderlies and
                                                                                                    patient service associates
  10%

   0%

 -10%

 -20%
        2007    2008     2009    2010    2011    2012    2013   2014     2015     2016
 -30%

The growth in employment in the social and community service occupation
over the past decade is consistent with projected trends in employment in the
occupation.12 Specifically, across the three occupations, projected employment
growth over the next five years is in the range of 5 - 12% (refer to Table 1):

ƒƒ 11.1-12% in the nurse aides, orderlies and patient services occupation;
ƒƒ 10.1-11% in the social and community service occupation; and,
ƒƒ 5.1-6% in teacher assistants occupation.

TABLE 1: Projected employment growth rates and job openings,
social and community service workers and key comparators, 2017 - 2021

                                                                EMPLOYMENT               JOB OPENINGS
                                                                GROWTH RATE

Nurse aides, orderlies, and patient service associates          11.1% - 12%              >20,000

Social and community service workers                            10.1% - 11%              10,001 - 15,000

Elementary and secondary school teacher assistants              5.1% - 6%                7,000 - 8,000
 Source: Canadian Occupational Projection system, Employment and Social Development Canada

The strong projected employment growth in the social and community service
occupation is consistent with the high expected growth of 12.1-13% in the
(more aggregated) occupational category of “paraprofessional occupations”;13
and consistent with the expected increased labour market demand in the even

Labour market analysis of the developmental services sector                                                                      10
broader allied health and wellness service industries; it is also aligned with the
increasing importance and trends in underlying factors (e.g., aging population)
that affect the demand for such services.

ROLE OF UNIONS

In the broader developmental services sector in Ontario, unions have generally
organized workers by transfer payment agency. The two major unions in the
occupation are OPSEU and CUPE. While there is no reliable data regarding the
extent of unionization (i.e., union density) in the developmental services sector,
in the broader health and social services sector (under which this occupation
falls), available estimates place the percent organized at about 47%; and
roughly 80% or greater in sub-sectors such as long-term care and child welfare
agencies.14

One of the most important and sizable impacts of unions in the labour market
is on wages. Empirical research studies consistently find a positive union-
nonunion wage differential. In Canada, over time and across industries, this
union wage advantage has been estimated to be in the range of about 10%.15
However, the magnitude of union impacts on wages has also been found to vary
across time, and industries.

There is no empirical research evidence on whether or not the unions have been
able to deliver a positive union-nonunion wage differential in the developmental
services (DS) sector in Ontario. In particular, one would expect the DS labour
market to be characterized by a high wage elasticity of demand for labour; that
is, wage increases would tend to be associated with relatively large employment
reductions. In the DS sector, this would mean that increases in wages would
induce employers to cut back on employment, in order to operate within their
budgets; hence, cut back on the provision of services. In turn, this would be
expected to operate to restrain union wage demands, especially where job
security is a major issue.

These effects would mitigate the overall impact of unions on relative wages in
the developmental services sector. Therefore, one would expect union impacts
on wages in this sector, if present, to be modest.

Labour market analysis of the developmental services sector                          11
KEY LABOUR MARKET CHARACTERISTICS

These labour force characteristics and trends in the social and community
service occupation in Ontario suggest:

1.   Overall, workers in the occupation can be characterized as receiving
     relatively low pay, with a high proportion employment in nonstandard /
     contingent work arrangements (including primarily part-time; but also
     some multiple job-holding). These features are, broadly, characteristic
     of the types of labour market outcomes that were identified as
     concerning in the 2017 Ontario Changing Workplace Review.

2. The demand for workers is relatively robust, and likely to remain so.

     This state of labour demand is consistent with the strong employment
     growth over the past decade, together with conditions in which average
     wages paid have exceeded wage offers, which is consistent with wages
     being bid up to attract workers; and the vacancy ratio is consistent
     with this as well.16 The projections of continued employment growth
     suggest that these labour demand conditions would be expected to
     continue, all else being equal.

3. While the relatively low unemployment rate and high vacancy rate may
     appear somewhat contradictory, the fact that social and community
     service workers are attracted to jobs in related occupations is
     consistent (all else being equal) with:

     ƒƒ There being relatively high labour demand in the nurse aides, orderlies and
          patient services occupation, and the teacher assistants occupation; both of
          which have low unemployment rates and relatively low vacancy rates.

     ƒƒ Employees leaving the social and community service occupation, which
          would tend, on the margin, to put upward pressure on vacancy rates.

     ƒƒ The observed relatively low unemployment rate in the social and
          community service occupation, which is consistent with labour demand
          pressures.

Taken together, these outcomes are consistent with a tight labour market and
potential for future pressures on labour supply in the social and community
service occupation in Ontario.

Labour market analysis of the developmental services sector                             12
> Labour Supply, Human
Capital Development, and the
Development of a Professional
Qualified Workforce
PRESSURES ON LABOUR DEMAND AND WAGES

The existing and projected labour market conditions for social and community
service workers are consistent with there being a complex interplay between
conditions of low wages, nonstandard employment, and pressures to enhance
labour supply in the presence of relatively strong employment growth. One
key issue is whether or not wages of social and community service workers are
sufficient to attract the required labour supply, especially with the projections of
continued strong employment growth in the occupation.

If the relative demand for labour in the social and community service
occupation is high, then wages may be bid up over time as employers attempt
to attract labour. In this case, higher wages would be expected to attract some
workers away from the nurse aides, orderlies and patient services occupation,
or the teacher assistants occupation; or operate to attract workers into the
occupation as they first enter the labour market. Regardless of the source of
entrants in to the occupation, there will be pressure to ensure that workers in
the occupation have the necessary levels of training and educational attainment
for two mutually reinforcing reasons:

ƒƒ First, it is in the public interest to ensure that a minimum quality of care
   services is provided by workers in the occupation; in turn, achieving this
   requires a level of consistency in the level of skills and education required of
   care workers.

ƒƒ Second, all else being equal, as wages are bid up, and if wages are
   maintained at a higher level, there will be a wedge between average labour
   productivity in the occupation and average wages; and the magnitude of the
   wedge would be expected to increase as the average wage increases.

Labour market analysis of the developmental services sector                            13
ƒƒ If the objective is to maintain higher wages in order to attract labour into
   the occupation then, in the long run, productivity would need to increase in
   order to reduce the magnitude (or eliminate) this wedge; that is, in the long
   run, higher wages need to be supported by higher productivity. In industries
   in which the product is services and in which the primary input in the
   production process is labour (versus capital, such as machinery), increases in
   labour productivity depend directly upon enhancing the productive capacity
   (i.e., the skills and education) of workers.

Both of these considerations underscore the importance of maintaining
relatively high educational credentials of the workforce. Enhancing skills and
education operates to support the wage increases necessary to attract workers
into the occupation, reduce turnover among those workers already working in
the occupation, and support increased productivity; which operates, in turn, to
support higher wages long term.

CURRENT EDUCATION AND TRAINING PROFILE OF EMPLOYEES IN THE SOCIAL
AND COMMUNITY SERVICE OCCUPATION

In 2016, in Ontario, 10.7% of social and community service workers had a high
school diploma as their highest level of educational attainment, while 2.3% had
no certificate, diploma or degree of any type (refer to Table 2). On the other
hand, 37.6% had some form of university certificate, diploma or degree at the
bachelor’s level or above – but these credentials, although high, would not be
expected to include education /training programs specifically aimed at the
social and community service occupation.

Labour market analysis of the developmental services sector                         14
TABLE 2: Social and community services workers, Employment by education, 2016

                                                                      TOTAL LABOUR FORCE    EMPLOYED    UNEMPLOYED

                                                                       NUMBER     PERCENT     NUMBER        NUMBER

                                                              TOTAL     53,470                 51,475         1,995

 EDUCATIONAL ATTAINMENT

 NO CERTIFICATE, DIPLOMA OR DEGREE                                       1,230      2.3%        1,145           90

 SECONDARY (HIGH) SCHOOL OR EQUIVALENT                                    5,735    10.7%        5,290          445

 APPRENTICESHIP OR TRADES CERTIFICATE OR DIPLOMA                           850      1.6%         830            20

 COLLEGE, CEGEP OR OTHER NON-UNIVERSITY CERTIFICATE                     23,880     44.7%       23,095          785

 UNIVERSITY DEGREE AT BACHELOR LEVEL OR ABOVE                           20,115      37.6%      19,490          620

 CERTIFICATE OF APPRENTICESHIP OR QUALIFICATION                            280      0.5%         275            10

Currently, in Ontario, the main approach to enhancing the education and skills
of social and community service workers is through either the Developmental
Services Worker (DSW) trade program, or through certificate/diploma
programs in Colleges.17

ƒƒ In 2016, 44.7% of workers in the social and community service occupation
   had a college, or other non-university certificate or diploma – although this
   figure does not capture whether or not the person holds a DSW certificate/
   diploma specifically.

ƒƒ While data are not available to ascertain what proportion of these diploma-
   holders are graduates of College DSW programs, in the period from 2012-13
   to 2015-16, the fourteen Colleges with major DSW programs typically had,
   altogether, approximately 1300 students enrolled per year.18 (Refer to Table
   3.)

ƒƒ In marked contrast, in 2016, only 1.6% of social and community service
   workers had an apprenticeship or trades certificate or diploma; and only
   0.5% had either a Certificate of Apprenticeship or of Qualification.19

Labour market analysis of the developmental services sector                                                       15
TABLE 3: College DSW Enrollment by College, Ontario, 2013 - 2016

                                                   2012-2013       2013-2014     2014-2015   2015-2016

 ALGONQUIN                                                221           232           229         221

 CAMBRIAN                                                     65         54            53          67

 CENTENNIAL                                                   60         61            61          58

 CONFEDERATION                                                58         63            59          89

 DURHAM                                                       68         90           100          93

 FANSHAWE                                                 299           284           256         245

 GEORGIAN                                                     85         85            87          78

 HUMBER                                                   104            89            93          88

 LACITE                                                       61         82            93          88

 LAMBTON                                                      35         50            41          30

 LOYALIST                                                     85         75            77          74

 NORTHERN                                                     24         22            15

 SIR SANFORD FLEMING                                                     34            59          43

 ST. CLAIR                                                113           118           104          82

 TOTAL                                                  1,278          1,339         1,327      1,240

Taken together, the supply of individuals trained for the social and community
service occupation is overwhelmingly provided by the (professionally
unregulated) college diploma/certificate programs.

SYSTEMIC CHALLENGES REGARDING SKILL QUALIFICATIONS IN THE SOCIAL AND
COMMUNITY SERVICE OCCUPATION

In practice, there are several systemic problems currently associated with
the existing qualifications/requirements regime for work in the social and
community service occupation:

1.   People with a DSW certification do leave for employment in competing
     occupations that may have higher pay levels;20 consequently,
     problem of weak labour supply in this sector would be expected to
     be further aggravated when the demand for labour (that DSWs can

Labour market analysis of the developmental services sector                                          16
fulfill) increases in complementary labour markets/industries such
     as education and health. Low wages in the social and community
     service occupation are an ongoing problem that can impact retention,
     the returns to human capital investment (i.e., investment in obtaining
     a diploma or enrolling in an Apprenticeship program), as well as the
     overall attractiveness of the occupation.

     As noted by one DSW survey respondent:

     “…hourly wages, for instance the Ontario minimum wage is increasing
     to $14/hr in 2018 and then $15/hr in 2019, so cost of living is increasing
     and our rate of pay is the same- part time pay is $18.75. My problem is
     we will now see many people questioning if attending school is even
     worth it when all you get is $3 more. People in restaurants who receives
     tips could possibly make more hourly. In other words, while working in
     this field we will be forced to live beyond our means because we are not
     making enough money to support the rising cost of the country.”21
     (* emphasis added)

2. While the principal credential for working in the social and community
     service occupation in Ontario is the DSW diploma, the overall
     prevalence of the DSW diploma remains limited. The 2017 agency-
     based workforce survey data indicate that 30% of developmental
     service professionals hold a DSW diploma (refer to Table 4, Panel A);
     and, this level of diploma-holding is in the context where, in 2016, 44.7%
     of workers in the social and community service occupation had a
     college, or other non-university certificate or diploma.

3. While some agencies may require a DSW, there is no empirical evidence
     to suggest that a DSW diploma is systematically associated with full-
     time work, or even required with any consistency across employers; in
     fact, the 2017 agency-based workforce survey data indicate that (refer
     to Table 4, Panels A and B):

     ƒƒ Among those working regular full-time, 33.3% had a DSW diploma, as
          compared to 26.2% of regular part-time workers; and,

     ƒƒ Among those with a DSW diploma, 61.4% worked regular full-time
          whereas 30.5% were regular part-time employees.

4. The stature and respect of the DSW occupation may be at risk because
     of poor labour market outcomes (i.e., low wages; high turnover)

Labour market analysis of the developmental services sector                       17
and because of the perception that there are no definite education
     requirements in terms of either standards, or the relevancy of the
     training or education, to the delivery of (high quality) developmental
     services in the occupation. As one 2017 DSW survey respondent
     observed:

     “There are few opportunities for a full time position. I also think that
     people are being hired without proper education. A DSW diploma is the
     best possible education and people with diplomas that are unrelated
     should not be hired. Some people are hired with educations such as
     Police Foundations which does not relate to what we do as DSW’s. The
     turnover rate is high because people are walking into the job without
     fully understanding the work we do. It makes the current staff’s job
     more difficult because the training is much more intense when a person
     doesn’t have a background in this field.”22 (* emphasis added)

TABLE 4: PANEL A. Distribution of DSPs by highest level of education attainment, by employment status

                                                                          EDUCATION

                                 HIGH                                                    OTHER
                                                             SOME           DSW                         UNIVERSITY   ADVANCED
 EMPLOYMENT STATUS              SCHOOL         TRADE                                    COLLEGE                                 TOTAL
                                                            COLLEGE       DIPLOMA                       GRADUATE      DEGREE
                               GRADUATE                                                 DIPLOMA

                COUNT              35            15            98           403            375             248          36      1,210
 REGULAR
 FULL-TIME
                % OF DSP          2.9%          1.2%          8.1%         33.3%          31.0%           20.5%        3.0%     100.0%

                COUNT              31            15            71           200            264             154          27       762
 REGULAR
 PART-TIME
                % OF DSP          4.1%          2.0%          9.3%         26.2%          34.6%           20.2%        3.5%     100.0%

 CASUAL/        COUNT              13             7            16            53             83             58           10       240
 RELIEF
 PART-TIME      % OF DSP          5.4%          2.9%          6.7%         22.1%          34.6%           24.2%        4.2%     100.0%

                COUNT              79            37           185           656            722             460          73      2,212
 TOTAL
                % OF DSP          3.6%          1.7%          8.4%         29.7%          32.6%           20.8%        3.3%     100.0%

Labour market analysis of the developmental services sector                                                                              18
TABLE 4: PANEL B. Distribution of DSPs by employment status, by highest level of educational attainment

                                                                          EDUCATION

                                 HIGH                                                    OTHER
                                                             SOME           DSW                       UNIVERSITY   ADVANCED
 EMPLOYMENT STATUS              SCHOOL         TRADE                                    COLLEGE                               TOTAL
                                                            COLLEGE       DIPLOMA                     GRADUATE      DEGREE
                               GRADUATE                                                 DIPLOMA

                COUNT              35            15            98            403           375             248        36      1,210
 REGULAR
 FULL-TIME
                % OF DSP         44.3%         40.5%         53.0%         61.4%          51.9%           53.9%     49.3%     54.7%

                COUNT              31            15            71           200            264             154        27       762
 REGULAR
 PART-TIME
                % OF DSP         39.2%         40.5%         38.4%         30.5%          36.6%           33.5%     37.0%     34.4%

 CASUAL/        COUNT              13             7            16            53             83              58        10       240
 RELIEF
 PART-TIME      % OF DSP         16.5%         18.9%          8.6%          8.1%          11.5%           12.6%     13.7%     10.8%

                COUNT              79            37           185            656           722             460        73      2,212
 TOTAL
                % OF DSP         100.0%        100.0%       100.0%        100.0%         100.0%           100.0%    100.0%    100.0%

> Ensuring Labour Supply and
Quality of Care in Social and
Community Services through
Human Capital Development
Enhancing the human capital of workers in the social and community service
occupation in Ontario supports two mutually consistent outcomes including:
achieving high standards of care that meet the public interest; and, enhancing
the productivity of social and community service workers.

Government has a direct, if not somewhat complex, interest in enhancing
productivity through human capital development, which:

Labour market analysis of the developmental services sector                                                                           19
ƒƒ Supports higher wages. Higher wages, in turn, would operate to maintain,
   or increase, labour supply; this would support government objectives with
   respect to meeting increases in the demand for care services.

ƒƒ Functions to increase efficiency in the production of services by increasing
   labour productivity; this aligns with government economic objectives, as
   direct (or indirect) funder of the services.

Government also has a direct interest in meeting the high quality of care
objective. The goal of building a professional, qualified workforce, ensuring
that there is an adequate supply of workers, and supporting human capital
investments in the social and community service occupation, is consistent with
the goal of achieving high standards of care.

Currently, human capital investments (including education and training) in
the Ontario DS sector are supported through the College Diploma programs
and the DSW trades program. One basic ongoing problem is that the supply of
graduates from the existing College programs (the primary source of workers
with DSW education) appears to be inadequate. Simply trying to increase
College program capacity may not resolve the excess demand problem because
of what appears to be chronically high rates of exit from the DS occupation
to “adjacent” occupations -- and where wage differentials also appear to be
exacerbating labour force development challenges.

Another fundamental and widely understood systemic problem regarding the
provision of many services is that the quality of the services provided may be
difficult for the consumer to assess.23 This information asymmetry creates
uncertainty between the service provider and the consumer of the services.24
Consumers therefore rely upon credentials as an indicator of the minimum
quality of services provided; in turn, consumers need to be able to rely upon
the quality of the (professional) credential. The need ensure that a minimum
quality level of services is consistently provided is a fundamental rationale for
professional licensing of trades, such as the DSW.

Certification of a profession or trade only certifies that a person carrying out the
work of a trade has the skill level necessary for the certification (standard); in
contrast licensure requires that the person meet definite government standards
as a condition of performing the work of a trade. Licensure makes the practice
of the work of a trade illegal without a specified license (granted by the
government, or a professional College established by legislation to govern the
trade).

Labour market analysis of the developmental services sector                            20
Importantly, licensing has been found to have several significant labour market
effects including:

1.   Positive returns to apprenticeship training.25

2. Higher competency.26

3. Greater levels of human capital investments.27

4. Greater wages and earnings.28

These outcomes directly support the objectives of building a professional,
qualified workforce. Licensure also operates to resolve the information
asymmetry problem in the sector, and ensure that minimum standards of care
are provided.

However, in so doing, the effect of licensure is to restrict the scope of practice
and services of the trade, which would operate to negatively affect labour
supply.29 Counterbalancing this effect are higher earnings and increased
stature of the profession, which would tend to attract entrants to the occupation;
in addition, there is also a potential role for government to support and
encourage entrants into the trade in order to enhance labour supply.

Currently, in Ontario, the DSW trade is regulated by the Ontario College of
Trades, under the Ontario College of Trades and Apprenticeship Act, 2009. The
DSW trade program primarily centers on a formal apprenticeship program
which provides individuals with certification:

          “… Certificate of Apprenticeship. Upon meeting the College’s
          registration requirements, the individual may apply to become certified
          and registered as a journeyperson in the trade.”

In addition, DSW tradespersons may undertake formal training at the College
level:30

          “Those who complete the apprenticeship are encouraged to continue
          their studies to obtain a Developmental Services Worker Diploma from
          an Ontario College of Applied Arts and Technology which may include
          completing general education courses, a practicum and residency.”

Critically, the DSW is designated as a voluntary trade in Ontario, which means
that licensure in order to practice the trade is not required (i.e., certification and
College membership are not legally required in order to practice the trade).31

Labour market analysis of the developmental services sector                              21
Therefore, despite a tradesperson being required to be a member of the College
of Trades during the formal Apprenticeship Program period, once certified,
there is no regulatory requirement with respect to holding a DSW designation
as a condition of employment.

Based upon the results of a comprehensive analysis, regarding the prospects
and potential outcomes of a program for professional credentialing for
direct support workers, the New York Office for People with Developmental
Disabilities concluded that:

          “Credentialing is an important tool to … (a) update knowledge and
          skills needed to achieve quality, affordable support; (b) attract applicants
          by increasing society’s awareness of direct support as an entry to human
          services work, and services; and (c) create a bridge to higher education
          and wages for the low wage LTSS workforce.”32

In fact, in New York State, among the final recommendations of the final Report
of the New York Office for People with Developmental Disabilities were to:33

1.   “Make a long-term structural commitment to a statewide DSP
     credentialing program and strengthening the DSP workforce. …

2. Create a state statutory requirement for OPWDD to offer a statewide
     voluntary credential with incentives for participation through salary
     increases for targeted enrollments. ...

3. Implement and publicly fund the NY DSP credential program beginning
     FY 16/17.”

The goal, therefore, is to significantly strengthen the state DSP credentialing
program in order to achieve the outcomes of high minimum standards of care,
increased human capital development, and development of a professional,
qualified workforce in the social and community service occupation. In
Ontario, a similar strategy of strengthening the DSW Trades Program could
be considered, as an element of a strategy to enhance DS human resource and
labour market outcomes.

Labour market analysis of the developmental services sector                              22
> Endnotes
1       In part, this movement of workers out of the social and community service occupation into these other
        occupations occurs because of such factors as: the care and/or support roles that they perform in these
        occupations are similar; the skill and educational requirements are, at a general level, similar; and wage
        differentials and the prospects for employment may favour these other occupations.

2       These three occupational groups correspond to the four-digit codes in the 2011 National Occupational
        Classification system (the 2016 definitions are the same):

        4212 Social and community service workers
        Social and community service workers administer and implement a variety of social assistance programs
        and community services, and assist clients to deal with personal and social problems. They are employed
        by social service and government agencies, mental health agencies, group homes, shelters, substance abuse
        centres, school boards, correctional facilities and other establishments.

        3413 Nurse aides, orderlies and patient service associates
        Nurse aides, orderlies and patient service associates assist nurses, hospital staff and physicians in the basic
        care of patients. They are employed in hospitals, nursing homes, assisted care facilities for the elderly and
        other health care establishments.

        4413 Elementary and secondary school teacher assistants
        Elementary and secondary school teacher assistants support students, and assist teachers and counsellors
        with teaching and non-instructional tasks. They assist in areas of personal care, teaching and behaviour
        management under the supervision of teachers or other child care professionals. They are employed in
        public and private elementary, secondary and special needs schools and treatment centres.

3       Source: Statistics Canada - 2016 Census. Catalogue Number 98-400-X2016295.

4       Refer to the 2017 Ontario Changing Workplace Review for a detailed description and assessment of the
        implications of these characteristics.

5       It is important to distinguish the economic definitions of hourly wage rate (pay per hour), earnings (which
        is derived from labour market work (and is a function of hourly wages and hours of work), and income
        (which includes total earnings plus other sources of income such as government transfers).

6       Source: 2016 Census; Statistics Canada. Table 285-0003 - Job Vacancy and Wage Survey (JVWS).

7       Source: Statistics Canada. 2017. Annual Review of the Labour Market, 2016. Catalogue no. 75-004-M –
        2017001. Accessed at: http://www.statcan.gc.ca/pub/75-004-m/75-004-m2017001-eng.htm.

        This is broadly consistent over time. For example, in 2010, the unemployment rate among social and
        community service workers in Ontario was at the low level of approximately 4.2% (based upon estimates
        from Statistics Canada’s 2011 National Household Survey).

Labour market analysis of the developmental services sector                                                           23
8       Source: Statistics Canada - 2016 Census. Catalogue Number 98-400-
        X2016295.

9       Sources: Statistics Canada. Table 285-0003 - Job Vacancy and Wage Survey
        (JVWS); and Statistics Canada 2016 Census. Catalogue Number 98-400-
        X2016295.

10      Sources: Employment growth rates are based upon Source: Statistics
        Canada’s Labour Force Survey. Projections are based upon estimates from
        the Canadian Occupational Projection System, Employment and Social
        Development Canada.

        The share of job openings due to new employment is defined as: “Percentage
        of forecast job openings due to higher expected employment (net change in
        employment level).”

        The share of jobs is defined as: “Percentage of forecasted job openings due to
        retirement, death, and emigration.”

11      In Figures __ and ___, the base year for employment is 2007; and trend lines
        are logarithmic.

12      I note that the caveat to these results is that projections are, by necessity,
        subject to a variety of assumptions that may not prove valid.

13      This corresponds to National Occupational Classification code 421
        (Paraprofessional occupations).

14      See: Chaykowski and Hickey (2014).

15      See: Renaud (1997; 1998).

16      One other factor likely to have some impact on wages in the occupation is
        unions; however, there is no empirical research available that would permit
        an assessment of the magnitude of any union effects.

17      Currently, in Ontario, approximately 19 Colleges offer a program
        leading to a Developmental Services Worker or allied Special Needs
        worker certificate or diploma. [Source: https://www.ontariocolleges.
        ca/en/programs/education-community-and-social-services/
        developmental-services-worker-special-needs]

18      Source: Ontario. Advanced Education and Skills Development. Accessed at:
        https://www.ontario.ca/data/college-enrolment

        Enrolment data for DSW programs in Colleges of applied arts and
        technology in Ontario show some variation, from year to year. Note that this

Labour market analysis of the developmental services sector                              24
total excludes enrolments in DSW programs with less than 10 students.

        Some programs (e.g., Fanshawe College) offer “fast-track” and “accelerated”
        programs, which enable students to complete the DSW program in 12
        months or less. Therefore, without annual program graduation data, it is not
        possible to determine, with certainty, the maximum number of graduates
        potentially entering the occupation, every year. Assuming every student was
        enrolled for two years provides a lower bound of roughly 650 students per
        year.

19      These Census data results are broadly consistent with the results from the DS
        Survey regarding educational attainment of DSWs (refer to Table 4).

20      See the Agency-based workforce survey results from Hickey (2018).

21      Source: Hickey (2018).

22      Source: Hickey (2018).

23      It may also be difficult for the government, even as an arms-length funder of
        health or care services, to determine whether the quality of services provided
        meets its own minimum standards of care.

24      See: Akerlof (1970: 500).

25      Sources: Gunderson and Krashinsky (2015); Gunderson and Krashinsky
        (2016); Laporte and Mueller (2012: 23); and Boothby and Drewes (2006).

26      Source: Kleiner and Kreuger (2010: 684).

27      Sources: Forth et al (2011: 7); Kleiner (2000: 191); Larkin (2016: 223).

28      Sources: Koumenta et al (2014: 21); Gittleman and Kleiner (2016:142); Kleiner
        and Kreuger (2013: 179); Kleiner and Kreuger (2010); Gittleman and Kleiner
        (2016).

29      Source: Graddy (1991:26).

30      Source: Ontario College of Trades. Developmental Services Worker.
        Accessed at: http://www.collegeoftrades.ca/wp-content/uploads/TFS_DSW_
        June2015.pdf.pdf

31      In Ontario, this corresponds to the DSW not being classified as a compulsory
        trade. See: Ontario College of Trades. “Trades in Ontario.” Accessed at:
        http://www.collegeoftrades.ca/trades-in-ontario

32      (OPWDD: 2016: 6)

33      (OPWDD: 2016: 14)

Labour market analysis of the developmental services sector                              25
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Labour market analysis of the developmental services sector                      26
Kleiner, M. and A. Kreuger. 2010. “The Prevalence and Effects of Occupational
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New York Office for People with Developmental Disabilities (OPWDD). 2016.
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–225.

Labour market analysis of the developmental services sector                      27
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