ECONOMIC & INVESTMENT OUTLOOK 2021 - BNP Paribas Fortis
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ECONOMIC & INVESTMENT OUTLOOK 2021 KOEN DE LEUS & PHILIPPE GIJSELS BRUSSELS, 04/12/2020
#BNPPFOUTLOOK
AGENDA
01 Setting the scene
02 Game changer
03 Continued monetary & fiscal support
04 Solving the debt problem
05 Post-Corona World
06 Belgium
2
CHAPTER 1 #BNPPFOUTLOOK
SETTING THE SCENE
Economic & Investment Outlook 2021 3
MOBILITY AND INFECTIONS: -10% / -20% IS SPEED LIMIT
Belgium: Google mobility versus confirmed cases, 2020 Spain: Google mobility versus confirmed cases, 2020
100000 10 120000 10
90000 0 110000 0
80000 100000 -10
-10 90000
Number
Number
70000 -20 80000 -20
60000 70000 -30
-30
50000 60000 -40
-40
40000 50000 -50
-50 40000
30000 -60
-60 30000
20000 20000 -70
10000 -70 -80
10000
0 -80 0 -90
Feb Mar Apr May Jun Jul Aug Sep Oct Feb Mar Apr May Jun Jul Aug Sep Oct
Germany: Google mobility versus confirmed cases, 2020 France: Google mobility versus confirmed cases, 2020
100000 10 300000 10
90000 0
0 250000
80000 -10
Number
Number
70000 -10
200000 -20
60000 -20 -30
50000 150000
-30 -40
40000
100000 -50
30000 -40
20000 -60
-50 50000
10000 -70
0 -60 0 -80
Feb Mar Apr May Jun Jul Aug Sep Oct Feb Mar Apr May Jun Jul Aug Sep Oct
Mobility, Length of Stay, (Retail & Recreation + Transit Stations + Workplaces)/3, mean(The Whole Country, 7), The Whole Country, rhs
Coronavirus Disease (COVID19) Pandemic, Confirmed Cases, Aggregate, lhs
Sources: BNP Paribas Fortis, Macrobond
Economic & Investment Outlook 2021 4
MOBILITY AND INFECTIONS: PREDICTING GDP REAL TIME?
GDP decline and mobility
105%
Real quarterly GDP vs Q4 2019
100%
95%
90% Belgium Q1
85%
80%
Belgium Q2
75%
Q1 Q2
70%
0 -10 -20 -30 -40 -50 -60
Reduction in mobility versus normal situation (average of 4 indicators)
Sources: BNP Paribas Fortis, Eurostat, Google
Economic & Investment Outlook 2021 5
MOBILITY AS AN INDICATOR
Mobility as real-time measure of GDP decline
98%
96%
94%
92%
90%
88%
86%
84%
82%
80%
78%
01/01/2020 01/04/2020 01/07/2020 01/10/2020
National Bank of Belgium (NBB) Mobility model
Sources: BNP Paribas Fortis, Eurostat, Google
Economic & Investment Outlook 2021 6
DOUBLE DIP: NOW INEVITABLE
Developed markets:
GDP level (Q4 2019 = 100, sa)
105
Forecast
100
95
90
85
Q4 ‘19 Q2 ‘20 Q4 ‘20 Q2 ‘21 Q4 ‘21 Q2 ‘22 Q4 ‘22
Eurozone United States Japan
Sources: National statistical offices, BNP Paribas forecast (dashed lines)
Economic & Investment Outlook 2021 7
CHAPTER 2 #BNPPFOUTLOOK
GAME CHANGER
Economic & Investment Outlook 2021 8
MARKETS SURGE AS
#BNPPFOUTLOOK
PFIZER VACCINE PREVENTS
95% OF COVID CASES!
Economic & Investment Outlook 2021 9
A GOLDEN AGE
#BNPPFOUTLOOK
OF BIOTECH
Economic & Investment Outlook 2021 10SERENDEPITY AND LONGEVITY
Nasdaq Biotech Index
4000
3000
2000
1000
400
0
-200
2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020
Source: Bloomberg
Economic & Investment Outlook 2021 11BETTER VACCINE: FEWER PEOPLE NEED TO GET IT
100%
90%
% of population to be vaccinated
80%
70%
60%
50%
40%
30%
20%
10%
0%
30% 40% 50% 60% 70% 80% 90%
Vaccine effectivity
Various measures
Economic & Investment Outlook 2021 12BUT THIS IS WHERE WE WERE EARLY 2020
100%
90%
% of population to be vaccinated
80%
70%
60%
50%
40%
30%
20%
10%
0%
30% 40% 50% 60% 70% 80% 90%
Vaccine effectivity
Various measures No limits
Economic & Investment Outlook 2021 13EFFICIENCY VACCINE AND HERD IMMUNITY:
SOME PR STILL TO BE DONE
% planning to get vaccinated within 3 months of vaccine being
released (October data)
80%
60%
40%
20%
0%
35-44
55-64
35-44
35-44
35-44
35-44
18-24
18-24
25-34
45-54
18-24
25-34
45-54
55-64
18-24
25-34
45-54
55-64
18-24
25-34
35-44
45-54
55-64
18-24
25-34
45-54
55-64
18-24
25-34
45-54
55-64
25-34
35-44
45-54
55-64
65+
65+
65+
65+
65+
65+
65+
France Germany Italy Spain United Kingdom USA Belgium
Sources: dbDig Survey, Sciensano
Economic & Investment Outlook 2021 14REASONABLE MEASURES: 90% EFF = 60%+ VACC !
100% Gatherings limited to
1000 people or less
90%
% of population to be vaccinated
80% Gatherings limited to
100 people or less
70%
Gatherings limited to
60% 10 people or less
50%
Some businesses
40% closed
30% Most nonessential
businesses closed
20%
10% Schools and universities
closed
0%
30% 40% 50% 60% 70% 80% 90% -25% 0% 25% 50% 75 % 100%
Vaccine effectivity
Average reduction in Rt, in Ends
the context of our data Transmission
Various measures No limits Ban 10+ gathering
Economic & Investment Outlook 2021 15#BNPPFOUTLOOK Economic & Investment Outlook 2021 16
LIGHT AT THE END OF THE TUNNEL?
WHILE LOGISTICAL DIFFICULTIES, A VACCINE Belgium:
WOULD HAVE POSITIVE IMPLICATIONS FOR THE Google mobility versus financial situation next 12m
10 3
ECONOMY THROUGH VARIOUS CHANNELS: 0 2
-10 1
▪ Sentiment effect
-20 0
▪ Confidence holds up in spite of 2nd wave?
Percent
-30 -1
▪ Market impact -40 -2
▪ Reduced need for lockdown after vaccine roll-out … but -50 -3
short term maybe more stringent measures + most -60 -4
vulnerable might restrict themselves more. -70 -5
-80 -6
▪ More positif vaccine results will boost confidence further, Feb Mar Apr May Jun Jul Aug Sep Oct
negative will be discarded. 2020
Consumer Surveys, DG ECFIN, Consumer Confidence, Financial Situation Over Next 12 Months
Mobility, Length of Stay, (Retail & Recreation+Transit Stations +Workplaces)/3
Sources: BNP Paribas Fortis, Macrobond
Economic & Investment Outlook 2021 17CHAPTER 3 #BNPPFOUTLOOK
CONTINUED MONETARY & FISCAL SUPPORT
Economic & Investment Outlook 2021 18PREMATURE WITHDRAWAL OF DISCRETIONARY SUPPORT – BIS ?
Big policy support in First Wave
40 15
FISCAL SUPPORT MONETARY SUPPORT
35
10
30
Percent of GDP
25 5
20
0
15
-5
10
5 -10
ESP
BRA
USA
AUS
FRA
GBR
CHN
KOR
TUR
RUS
SAU
MEX
CAN
DEU
JPN
ZAF
ITA
IND
IDN
0
DM EM DM EM
Guarantees etc. Budgetary Private QE SOV QE Non-discretionary Discretionary Employment loss
Source: BIS estimates
Economic & Investment Outlook 2021 19RISK OF SCARRING
#BNPPFOUTLOOK
Economic & Investment Outlook 2021 20RISK OF SCARRING
K-RECOVERY LONG TERM SCARRING
Services versus industrial Weak demand undermines
supply potential
Rich versus ‘poor’ /
more indebted countries Capital spending
and productivity
Educational attainment / skilled
Young versus old Long-term
unemployment
Economic & Investment Outlook 2021 21RISK OF SCARRING
Rise of the zombies before COVID LONG TERM SCARRING
20 Weak demand undermines
supply potential
Percent of companies
15 Capital spending
and productivity
10
Long-term
unemployment
5
Zombification
0
85 87 89 91 93 95 97 99 01 03 05 07 09 11 13 15 17
Global US
Source: BIS estimates, listed companies only
Economic & Investment Outlook 2021 22RISK OF SCARRING
LONG TERM SCARRING
OECD corporates running at a loss Weak demand undermines
supply potential
5,0
Distribution of
4,5
OECD corporates Capital spending
4,0 and productivity
3,5
POST-COVID PRE-COVID
3,0 Long-term
2,5 unemployment
2,0
1,5 Zombification
1,0
0,5
Business
failures/credit
0,0
0 0,25 0,5 0,75 1 1,25 1,5 1,75 2 deterioration
Unprofitable Profitable
Source: BIS estimates
Economic & Investment Outlook 2021 23CONTINUED ‘SMART’ SUPPORT NECESSARY
END ASAP HEALTH SUPPORT household and ENSURE DURABLE PREPARE POST-
CRISES: invest testing, firms (targeted) RECOVERY PANDEMIC WORLD
contact tracing, prepare roll- ▪ Reforms ▪ Promote investment /
out vaccine, ... hiring expanding sectors
▪ Invest in education,
technology ▪ Training opportunities
(government, digital unemployed
divide), green ....
▪ Productivity increasing
investments
Economic & Investment Outlook 2021 24CHAPTER 4 #BNPPFOUTLOOK
SOLVING THE DEBT PROBLEM
Economic & Investment Outlook 2021 25THE DEBT PROBLEM:
WILL IT JEOPARDISE MONETARY DOMINANCE?
General government gross debt (% of GDP)
210
180
150
120
90
60
30
0
2000 2002 2004 2006 2008 2010 2012 2014 2016 2018 2020
Euro area United States Advanced economies
Source: European Commission Economic Forecast Spring 2020 and IMF. Dashed lines are projections.
Economic & Investment Outlook 2021 26THE DEBT PROBLEM:
WILL IT JEOPARDISE MONETARY DOMINANCE?
General government gross debt (% of GDP)
210 210
180 180
150 150
120 120
90 90
60 60
30 30
0 0
2000 2002 2004 2006 2008 2010 2012 2014 2016 2018 2020 2000 2002 2004 2006 2008 2010 2012 2014 2016 2018 2020
Euro area United States Advanced economies Greece Italy Portugal Spain France
Source: European Commission Economic Forecast Spring 2020 and IMF. Dashed lines are projections. Source: European Commission Economic Forecast Spring 2020. Dashed lines are projections.
Economic & Investment Outlook 2021 27SOLVING THE DEBT PROBLEM: THE ORTHODOX WAY
RUN PRIMARY SURPLUSES, INTRODUCE STRUCTURAL
REFORMS AND HOPE EASY MONETARY POLICY CAN
SUPPORT THE BUDGETARY ADJUSTMENT
Economic & Investment Outlook 2021 28SOLVING THE DEBT PROBLEM: THE ORTHODOX WAY
Gross Domestic Product, Total,
RUN PRIMARY SURPLUSES, INTRODUCE Current Prices, % YoY, 5-year moving average
STRUCTURAL REFORMS AND HOPE EASY %
MONETARY POLICY CAN SUPPORT THE 12
11
BUDGETARY ADJUSTMENT 10
9
Result 8
7
▪ Weakest economic expansion in modern history 6
▪ Increased inequality + populism 5
4
▪ Undershooting of inflation targets 3
2
▪ Yields slumped to 700-year lows (= evidence wrong
1
policy mix) 0
1955 1960 1965 1970 1975 1980 1985 1990 1995 2000 2005 2010 2015 2020
Euro Area, Calendar Adjusted, Market Prices, EUR [c.o.p. 1year, m.a. 5 years]
United states, AR, USD [c.o.p. 1 year, m.a. 5 years]
Economic & Investment Outlook 2021 29SOLVING THE DEBT PROBLEM: THE UNORTHODOX WAY
Run primary surpluses, Default on the debt either
introduce structural reforms directly in the form of write-
and hope easy monetary policy downs, or indirectly via
can support the budgetary unanticipated inflation and
adjustment financial repression
Economic & Investment Outlook 2021 30100%
150%
200%
250%
300%
50%
t-1
t
t+1
t+2
t+3
t+4
t+5
t+6
t+7
t+8
t+9
t+10
t+11
t+12
t+13
t+14
t+15
t+16
t+17
t+18
t+19
t+20
t+21
t+22
t+23
t+24
t+25
t+26
Debt/gdp, r=1%; g=3%
t+27
t+28
t+29
t+30
t+31
t+32
t+33
t+34
t+35
t+36
t+37
SOLVING THE DEBT PROBLEM: R – G IS KEY
t+38
t+39
t+40
t+41
t+42
Debt/gdp, r=3%; g=1%
t+43
t+44
t+45
t+46
t+47
t+48
t+49
t+50
t+51
t+52
t+53
t+54
t+55
Debt to gdp dynamics at yearly 5% deficit: r must be < g to stabilise debt
t+56
t+57
t+58
t+59
Economic & Investment Outlook 2021
t+60
31SOLVING THE DEBT PROBLEM: R – G IS KEY
Euro area interest-growth differential (percentage)
10
5
0
-5
-10
-15
-20
1955 1975 1995 2015
Note: Long-term interest rate on government debt minus nominal GDP growth. The grey band represents the minimum and maximum values among DE, FR, IT and ES.
Source: European Commission’s AMECO database and Jorda et al. (2017), “Macrofinancial History and the New Business Cycle Facts”, in NBER Macroeconomics Annual 2016, Vol. 31, edited by Martin
Eichenbaum and Jonathan A. Parker. Chicago: University of Chicago Press.
Economic & Investment Outlook 2021 32SOLVING THE DEBT PROBLEM: THE ORTHODOX VERSUS
UNORTHODOX WAY
How they financed the wars DEFAULT ON THE DEBT EITHER DIRECTLY IN THE
FORM OF WRITE-DOWNS, OR INDIRECTLY VIA
Share of debt reduction, percent
80
UNANTICIPATED INFLATION AND FINANCIAL
60 REPRESSION
40 Situation 1945-70: supply shock
20 ▪ Post-war rebuilding + reintegrate military
▪ Productivity boost wartime tech
0 ▪ Baby boom
-20 Only occasional bouts of inflation
(mixed approach) (mainly repression)
Yield caps only briefly necessary
-40 WW1, 1921-29 WW2, 1945-75
Capital markets closed
Primary r-g Stock/flow
Banking sector regulated
Source: Eichengreen et al (2019)
Economic & Investment Outlook 2021 33FROM UNORTHODOX TO RADICAL:
MODERN MONETARY THEORY
Fiscal policy takes responsibility for Fiscal takes responsibility for debt
full employment and price stability sustainability
Monetary policy takes responsibility for Consensus approach
price stability and full employment (macroeconomy on track towards equilibrium)
Monetary policy takes responsibility for Functional finance approach
debt sustainability (macroeconomy on track towards equilibrium)
Economic & Investment Outlook 2021 34THE MAGIC MONEY TREE
Economic & Investment Outlook 2021 35A DANGEROUS GAP
Economic & Investment Outlook 2021 36THE GAP BETWEEN THE ECONOMY AND THE MARKET
An unprecedented wave of liquidity…
Global central bank securities purchases, 12m rolling, $tn
6.0
EM
5.0 Other
Total
purchases ECB
4.0
BOJ
3.0
2.0
Fed
1.0
0.0
-1.0
06 08 10 12 14 16 18 20
Source: National central banks, Citi Research. Projections based & CB announcements.
Economic & Investment Outlook 2021 37AND A NEW WILD CARD
Economic & Investment Outlook 2021 38A REAL ASSETS WORLD
2000
1500
1000
500
2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020
Source: Bloomberg
Economic & Investment Outlook 2021 39POST-CORONA WORLD – LISTED REAL ESTATE
RESIDENTIAL REAL ESTATE – OUR FAVORITE SEGMENT
HOME HOME
as an office as a classroom
HOME HOME
as a social place as a gym
Economic & Investment Outlook 2021 40EURUSD
1.6000
1.5000
1.4000
1.3000
1.2000
1.1000
1.0000
0.9000
0.8000
2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020
Source: Bloomberg
Economic & Investment Outlook 2021 41CHAPTER 5 #BNPPFOUTLOOK
POST CORONA WORLD (VALUE GROWTH)
Economic & Investment Outlook 2021 42E-commerce transactions with retailes
(rebased at week 8)
-
0.20
0.40
0.60
0.80
1.00
1.20
1.40
1.60
1.80
17-Feb
Source: BNP Paribas Fortis
24-Feb
02-Mar
09-Mar
16-Mar
23-Mar
30-Mar
06-Apr
13-Apr
20-Apr
27-Apr
04-May
11-May
Domestic
18-May
25-May
01-Jun
Abroad
08-Jun
E-COMMERCE HELPS... SOMEWHAT
15-Jun
22-Jun
29-Jun
06-Jul
13-Jul
20-Jul
E-commerce by location of retailer
27-Jul
Share domestic (rhs)
03-Aug
10-Aug
17-Aug
24-Aug
31-Aug
07-Sep
14-Sep
21-Sep
0.0%
5.0%
10.0%
15.0%
20.0%
25.0%
30.0%
35.0%
40.0%
45.0%
E-commerce with domestic retailers
Economic & Investment Outlook 2021
(% of total)
43LONG TERM TRENDS AND REAL ASSETS
Economic & Investment Outlook 2021 44IS THERE A TECH BUBBLE?
180
160
140
USD
120
100
80
60
01/20 02/20 03/20 04/20 05/20 06/20 07/20 08/20 09/20
US Big Tech 5 S&P 500 ex. US Big Tech 5 Stoxx Europe 600
Source: Datastream, Kepler Cheuvreux
Economic & Investment Outlook 2021 45A BARBELL OF TECH AND GROWTH
Value versus growth
1,2000
1,1000
1,0000
0,9000
0,8000
0,7000
0,6000
0,5000
1995 1996 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020
Source: Bloomberg
Economic & Investment Outlook 2021 46ENERGY
Oil: Production cuts, demand slowly recovers
Green: Accelerating
120
100
80
USD
60
40
20
Sep
Sep
Sep
Sep
Sep
Sep
Sep
Sep
Sep
Sep
Dec
Dec
Dec
Dec
Dec
Dec
Dec
Dec
Dec
Dec
Dec
Mar
Mar
Mar
Mar
Mar
Mar
Mar
Mar
Mar
Mar
Jun
Jun
Jun
Jun
Jun
Jun
Jun
Jun
Jun
Jun
2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020
Source: Bloomberg
Economic & Investment Outlook 2021 47COMMODITY PRICES
Off the lows, but following the stock markets with some delay
CRB CMDT Index
410
400
390
USD
380
370
360
350
Sep Dec Mar Jun
2019 2020
Source: Bloomberg
Economic & Investment Outlook 2021 48IS THERE A TECH BUBBLE?
180
160
140
USD
120
100
80
60
01/20 02/20 03/20 04/20 05/20 06/20 07/20 08/20 09/20
US Big Tech 5 S&P 500 ex. US Big Tech 5 Stoxx Europe 600
Source: Datastream, Kepler Cheuvreux
Economic & Investment Outlook 2021 49WHEN WILL EMERGING MARKETS OUTPERFORM?
Emerging markets versus mature markets
0,0400
0,0350
0,0300
0,0250
0,0200
0,0150
Source: Bloomberg
Economic & Investment Outlook 2021 50TO (HARD) BREXIT OR NOT TO (HARD) BREXIT…
EURGBP
Brexit is back! Year end target of 0.87, but short term swings not unlikely
0,94000
0,92000
0,90000
0,88000
0,86000
0,84000
Dec Mar Jun Sep
2019 2020
Source: Bloomberg
Economic & Investment Outlook 2021 51US ELECTIONS
Swing States …. Where the elections really take place
Who won in
State Biden Trump 2016?
Arizona 48.2% 44.8% Trump by 3.6%
Florida 47.8% 46.7% Trump by 1.2% MN NH
WI
Georgia 45.2% 46.5% Trump by 5.2% MI
Iowa 46.0% 46.0% Trump by 9.5% IA PA
Michigan 49.2% 44.0% Trump by 0.2% NV
OH
Minnesota 50.4% 41.0% Clinton by 1.5%
VA
Nevada 49.0% 43.7% Clinton by 2.4%
New Hampshire 48.0% 42.5% Clinton by 0.4% NC
North Carolina 47.0% 46.2% Trump by 3.7% AZ
Ohio 49.0% 45.7% Trump by 8.2%
GA
Pennsylvania 49.6% 43.9% Trump by 0.7%
Texas 44.6% 48.2% Trump by 9.1% TX
Virginia 51.3% 40.3% Clinton by 5.4% FL
Wilsconsin 49.8% 44.3% Trump by 0.8%
Source: Real Clear Politics
Economic & Investment Outlook 2021 52US ELECTIONS
WA
12 ME
MT ND 4
3 3
OR MN VTNH
7 ID 10 WI NY 3 4
SD
4
3 10 MI 29
WY
3
16
IA PA MA: 11
NE 6 20
NV 5 OH RI: 4
6 IL IN
18
UT 20 11 WV CT: 7
CA 6 CO 5 VA
9 KS MO 13 NJ: 14
55 6 KY
10 8 DE: 3
NC
TN 15 MD: 10
AZ OK 11
NM SC DC: 3
7 AR
11 5 6 9
AL GA
MS 16
9
6
TX LA
38 8
FL
29
Source: CNN
Economic & Investment Outlook 2021 53DEMOGRAPHICS FAVORING THE DEMOCRATS
DEMOCRATIC GAINS
Democratic Sen. Kyrsten Sinema
performed better than Hillary Clinton
in all but two Arizona countries in her
2018 victory.
Change in Democratic vote share
between 2016 presidential and
2018 Senate elections
-5 -2.5 0 +2,5 +5 +7.5
ppts
Economic & Investment Outlook 2021 54JPY
5000
10000
15000
20000
25000
30000
35000
40000
Source: Bloomberg
1981
1982
1983
1984
1985
1986
1987
1988
1989
1990
VALUE IN JAPAN?
1991
1992
1993
1994
1995
1996
1997
1998
1999
2000
2001
2002
2003
2004
Nikkei 225
2005
2006
2007
2008
2009
2010
2011
2012
2013
2014
2015
2016
2017
2018
2019
2020
Economic & Investment Outlook 2021
55CHAPTER 6 #BNPPFOUTLOOK
BELGIUM
Economic & Investment Outlook 2021 56OUTLOOK
Components of Back at Q4
2019 2020(1) 2021(2)
growth 2019
Total GDP 1,7 -7,2 3,8 Q4 2022
Private consumption 1,5 -8,1 7,4 Q3 2021
Public consumption 1,7 -1,6 4,1 Q3 2020
Fixed investment 3,4 -12,2 4,7 > 2022
Exports 1,0 -5,3 12,8 Q4 2021
Imports 0,8 -5,8 13,9 Q4 2021
(1) Estimate
(2) Forecast
Economic & Investment Outlook 2021 57IMPACT OF THE COVID-19 CRISIS AND SUPPORT MEASURES
(9-GRID RESULTS)
Crisis
Segment 7 Segment 8 Segment 9 resistant
3+4
2,0% 3,5% 67,3%
Impact of economy in
discontinuity
Segment 4 Segment 5 Segment 6
2
0,2% 0,3% 3,9%
Segment 1 Segment 2 Segment 3
0+1
2,7% 3,8% 16,2% Not Crisis
resistant
Extremely Healthy
unhealthy Situation before, economy in continuity companies
Sources: Graydon
Economic & Investment Outlook 2021 58IMPACT OF THE COVID-19 CRISIS AND SUPPORT MEASURES
(9-GRID RESULTS) Employees Injection need
Crisis
Segment 7 Segment 8 Segment 9 resistant
3+4
89.251 45.450 2.372.483
Impact of economy in
discontinuity
Segment 4 Segment 5 Segment 6
2
3.393 774 Million 4.688 346 Million 99.573 7 Billion
Segment 1 Segment 2 Segment 3
0+1
32.426 2 Billion 39.894 2 Billion 308.065 68 Billion Not Crisis
resistant
Extremely Healthy
Unhealthy Situation before, economy in continuity companies
Sources: Graydon
Economic & Investment Outlook 2021 59TEMPORARY UNEMPLOYMENT
% unemployment rate & temporary
unemployment
25%
Unemployment
20% 2020 2021 2022
rate
15%
Full year 5,1% 6,2% 7,1%
10%
Q1 5,0% 5,2% 7,4%
5%
Q2 5,0% 5,6% 7,2%
0%
2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021 Q3 5,1% 6,5% 7,0%
Unemployment rate
Temporary unemployment Q4 5,0% 7,3% 6,8%
Unemployment rate - fcst
Source: NBB, RVA, BNP Paribas Fortis
Economic & Investment Outlook 2021 60REAL TIME – FIRST LOCKDOWN
Incomining payments as proxy for revenues
Estimated turnover losses in first lockdown
(weekly moving average, seasonalised and
140
rebased at start of lockdown)
120
100
80
60
40
20
0
0 5 10 15 20 25 30 35 40 45
Days since start of first lockdown (18/03/2020)
Construction Vehicule Sales & Maintenance Unweighted average of 4 sectors
Bars & Restaurants Retail, excluding vehicules
Source: BNP Paribas Fortis
Economic & Investment Outlook 2021 61REAL TIME – SECOND LOCKDOWN
Incomining payments as proxy for revenues
Estimated turnover losses in second lockdown
(weekly moving average, seasonalised and
140
rebased at start of lockdown)
120
100
80
60
40
20
0
0 5 10 15 20
Days since start of second lockdown (03/11/2020)
Construction Vehicule Sales & Maintenance Average LD1
Bars & Restaurants Retail, excluding vehicules Average LD2
Source: BNP Paribas Fortis
Economic & Investment Outlook 2021 62BELGIUM: GDP OUTLOOK
Belgium: GDP outlook
110
(real, Rebased: Q4 2019 = 100)
105
100
Quarterly GDP
95
90
85
80
10/2019 01/2020 04/2020 07/2020 10/2020 01/2021 04/2021 07/2021 10/2021
BNPPF Latest CONSENSUS TREND Q4 2019 level
Source: BNP Paribas Fortis, NBB, Focus-Economics
Economic & Investment Outlook 2021 63BREXIT COSTS
Even a deal will be a shock
Total additional tariff-equivalent burden on goods
exports under different scenarios
20%
15%
10%
5%
0%
No deal FTA only “Transition-lite”
Customs compliance Tariffs Non-tariffs barriers
Sources: European Commission, University of Sussex, various academic sources
Economic & Investment Outlook 2021 64IT’S ALREADY HAPPENING
Exports Belgium to the UK
(in value, 12 month moving average)
9,0 15
10
8,5
5
8,0
0
7,5
-5
7,0
-10
Brexit referendum
6,5 23 June 2016 -15
2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020
As a % of total Belgian exports, lhs Year-on-year change in %, rhs
Source: NBB
Economic & Investment Outlook 2021 65PROSPECTS
GDP growth (YoY%) 2020 2021 2022
World -4,0 5,6 4,0
USA -3,6 3,7 3,2
China 2,0 8,6 5,3
Eurozone -7,5 5,6 3,9
Belgium -7,2 3,8 3,8
EURUSD (eoy) 1,19 1,25 1,30
Eurozone ECB -0,5% -0,5% -0,5%
Fed funds target 1,75% 0,1% 0,1%
German Bunds 10Y -0,55% -0,20% 0,10%
Brent oil (USD, eoy) 44 59
Source: BNP Paribas Fortis
Economic & Investment Outlook 2021 66PRESS OFFICE VALÉRY HALLOY HILDE JUNIUS PAMELA RENDERS valery.halloy@bnpparibasfortis.com hilde.junius@bnpparibasfortis.com pamela.renders@bnpparibasfortis.com +32 (0)475 78 80 97 +32 (0)478 88 29 60 +32 (0)477 39 99 79 HANS MARIËN JEROEN PETRUS hans.marien@bnpparibasfortis.com jeroen.petrus@bnpparibasfortis.com +32 (0)475 74 72 86 +32 (0)498 32 14 94
MESSAGE IMPORTANT
La division Private Banking de BNP Paribas Fortis sa, dont le siège social est établi 3 Montagne du Parc à 1000 Bruxelles, RPM Bruxelles, TVA BE 0403.199.702 ("BNP Paribas Fortis Private Banking")*, est
responsable de la production et de la distribution de ce document. Ce document est une communication marketing et ne vous est uniquement fourni dans le cadre d’un service d’investissement spécifique. Il
ne constitue pas un prospectus au sens de la législation relative aux offres publiques et/ou à l’admission d’instruments financiers à la négociation sur un marché. Il ne constitue pas de conseil en
investissement et ne peut être considéré comme une recherche en investissement. Il n’a dès lors pas été élaboré conformément aux dispositions relatives à la promotion de l’indépendance de la recherche en
investissements. Par conséquence, BNP Paribas Fortis Private Banking n'est soumise à aucune interdiction relative à l’exécution de transactions avant la diffusion de ce document.
Toute information relative à des investissements est à tout moment susceptible de modification(s) sans aucune notification. Les informations sur des performances passées, des performances passées
simulées ou des prévisions ne sont pas un indicateur fiable des résultats futures. BNP Paribas Fortis Private Banking a pris toutes les mesures raisonnables afin de garantir l'exactitude, le caractère clair et
non-trompeur des informations contenues dans ce document lors de sa rédaction. Ni BNP Paribas Fortis Private Banking, ni aucune des sociétés qui lui sont liées, ni aucun de ses administrateurs,
collaborateurs ou employés ne pourront être tenus responsables de toute information incorrecte, incomplète ou absente, ou des éventuels dommages directs ou indirects, pertes, frais, réclamations,
indemnisations ou autres dépenses qui résulteraient de l'utilisation de ce document ou d’une décision prise sur la base de ce document, sauf en cas de dol ou de faute lourde.
Une décision ne peut, par conséquence, être prise sur la seule base de ce document et ne devrait être considérée qu'après une analyse profonde de votre portefeuille ainsi qu'après avoir obtenu toutes les
informations et tous les conseils nécessaires de professionnels du secteur financier (experts fiscaux y compris).
BNP Paribas Fortis a établi une politique afin de prévenir et d'éviter les conflits d'intérêts. Les investissements personnels effectués par les personnes qui participent à la rédaction de ce document sont
généralement soumis à un contrôle. De plus, il est interdit d'investir dans des instruments financiers ou des émetteurs pour lesquels ils rapportent. Ces personnes ont reçu des instructions spécifiques au cas
où ils disposent d'information privilégiée.
(*) BNP Paribas Fortis sa est soumise en qualité d'établissement de crédit de droit belge au contrôle prudentiel de la Banque Nationale de Belgique ainsi qu'au contrôle de l'Autorité des services et marchés
financiers (FSMA) en matière de protection des investisseurs et des consommateurs. BNP Paribas Fortis sa est inscrite comme agent d'assurances sous le n° FSMA 25879 A et agit en qualité d'intermédiaire
d'AG Insurance SA.
Conflits d'intérêts
Il peut exister des conflits d'intérêts dans le chef de BNP Paribas Fortis sa et ses sociétés liées à la date de rédaction du présent document. Des règles de comportement et procédures internes, spécifiques,
sont élaborées à cet effet. Ces codes de conduite et les mentions des conflits d'intérêts éventuels dans le chef de BNP Paribas Fortis sa et ses sociétés liées sont disponibles sur
http://disclosures.bnpparibasfortis.com et, en ce qui concerne le groupe BNP Paribas, sur https://wealthmanagement.bnpparibas/fr/conflict-of-interest.html. Vous pouvez également obtenir cette information via
votre personne de contact.
Engagement des analystes
Les personnes nommément désignées comme les auteurs des textes relatifs aux actions individuelles présentées certifient que:
1. toutes les opinions exprimées dans le rapport de recherche reflètent précisément les opinions personnelles des auteurs concernant les instruments financiers et les émetteurs concernés; et
2. aucune partie de leur rémunération n’a été, n’est ou ne sera, directement ou indirecte ment, liée aux recommandations ou aux opinions spécifiques exprimées dans le rapport de recherche.
68BELANGRIJK BERICHT
De divisie Private Banking van BNP Paribas Fortis nv, met maatschappelijke zetel gevestigd te Warandeberg 3, 1000 Brussel, RPR Brussel, BTW BE 0403.199.702 (“BNP Paribas Fortis Private Banking”)*, is
verantwoordelijk voor het opstellen en verspreiden van dit document. Dit document is een marketing communicatie en wordt U uitsluitend verstrekt in het kader van een specifieke beleggingsdienst. Dit
document vormt geen prospectus als bedoeld in de op het aanbieden of toelaten tot de handel van financiële instrumenten toepasselijke regels en bevat geen beleggingsadvies en kan niet worden opgevat als
onderzoek op beleggingsgebied. De informatie in dit document is niet verkregen conform de wettelijke en reglementaire vereisten die het uitbrengen van objectief en onafhankelijk onderzoek op
beleggingsgebied beoogt te waarborgen en BNP Paribas Fortis Private Banking is dan ook niet onderworpen is aan het verbod tot handelen voorafgaand aan de verspreiding van dit document.
Informatie betreffende beleggingen kan op ieder ogenblik onderhevig zijn aan wijzigingen zonder verdere notificatie. Informatie met betrekking tot resultaten behaald in het verleden, gesimuleerde resultaten uit
het verleden en voorspellingen kunnen, onder geen beding, opgevat worden als een betrouwbare indicator van toekomstige resultaten. Hoewel BNP Paribas Fortis Private Banking redelijke maatregelen heeft
genomen om ervoor te zorgen dat de informatie opgenomen in dit document juist, duidelijk en niet misleidend is, aanvaardt noch BNP Paribas Fortis Private Banking, noch de aan haar gelieerde
vennootschappen, directeuren, adviseurs of werknemers, enige aansprakelijkheid voor enige onjuiste, onvolledige of ontbrekende informatie of voor enige directe of indirecte schade, verliezen, kosten,
vorderingen, aansprakelijkheden of andere uitgaven die op enigerlei wijze voortvloeien uit het gebruik van of het zich beroepen op de in dit document vermelde informatie, tenzij in geval van opzet of grote
nalatigheid. Een beslissing om te beleggen dient niet uitsluitend te worden gebaseerd op dit document en dient slechts te worden genomen na een zorgvuldige analyse van uw portefeuille alsmede na het
inwinnen van alle nodige informatie en/of adviezen van professionele adviseurs (met inbegrip van fiscale adviseurs).
BNP Paribas Fortis heeft een beleid vastgelegd teneinde belangenconflicten te voorkomen en te vermijden. Persoonlijke beleggingstransacties van personen betrokken bij de redactie van dit document in het
algemeen zijn onderworpen aan monitoring. Verder geldt specifiek het verbod om in financiële instrumenten of emittenten te beleggen waarover zij rapporteren. Deze personen ontvingen specifieke instructies
voor het geval dat ze over voorkennis beschikken.
(*) BNP Paribas Fortis nv staat als kredietinstelling naar Belgisch recht onder het prudentieel toezicht van de Nationale Bank van België en de controle inzake beleggers- en consumentenbescherming van de
Autoriteit van Financiële Diensten en Markten (FSMA). BNP Paribas Fortis nv is ingeschreven als verzekeringsagent onder FSMA nr. 25879 A en treedt op als tussenpersoon van AG Insurance NV.
Belangenconflicten
Belangenconflicten kunnen bestaan in hoofde van BNP Paribas Fortis nv en de met haar verbonden vennootschappen op datum van het opstellen van dit document. In dit verband werden bijzondere
gedragsregels en interne procedures uitgewerkt. Deze gedragcodes en de bekendmakingen in verband met mogelijke belangenconflicten in hoofde van BNP Paribas Fortis nv en de met haar verbonden
vennootschappen zijn beschikbaar op http://disclosures.bnpparibasfortis.com en, wat de BNP Paribas Group betreft, op https://wealthmanagement.bnpparibas/en/conflict-of-interest.html. U kan deze informatie
eveneens bekomen via uw contactpersoon.
Certificering van de analist
De personen die vermeld staan als auteurs van de teksten waar individuele aandelen worden besproken, bevestigen dat:
1. alle opinies die vermeld zijn in deze teksten een nauwkeurige weergave vormen van de persoonlijke opinie van de auteurs over het onderwerp financiële instrumenten en emittenten; en
2. geen enkel deel van hun bezoldiging rechtstreeks of onrechtstreeks verband hield, houdt of zal houden met de specifieke aanbevelingen of opinies die in deze teksten worden gegeven.
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