Enabling Australia's Digital Future: cyber security trends and implications DIGITAL PRODUCTIVITY AND SERVICES - csiro

 
Enabling Australia's Digital Future: cyber security trends and implications DIGITAL PRODUCTIVITY AND SERVICES - csiro
DIGITAL PRODUCTIVITY AND SERVICES
www.csiro.au

Enabling Australia’s
Digital Future:
cyber security trends and implications
Enabling Australia's Digital Future: cyber security trends and implications DIGITAL PRODUCTIVITY AND SERVICES - csiro
ACKNOWLEDGEMENTS

                                            CSIRO would like to acknowledge Defence Science and Technology Organisation
                                            (DSTO) for the original concept and broad approach of describing the future
                                            cyber landscape in terms of cyber dependency, threat and vulnerability within
                                            a context of “increasing dependence on an increasingly vulnerable cyber
                                            domain”. We also acknowledge DSTO for contributing their cyber security
                                            expertise and methodology, as well as for their input into developing the
                                            technology-use framework used to analyse sectoral technology dependence.
AUTHORS                                     CSIRO engaged with both Commonwealth and State Departments and
Sandra Arico (CSIRO Futures)                Industry stakeholders particularly relevant to the Government and
Vivek Srinivasan (CSIRO Futures)            Commercial Services sector, Health Services and Energy Sector whilst
                                            preparing this report and we would like to thank each of them for their
                                            valuable input. Some of those Departments and Organisations included:
                                            • NSW Department of Finance and Services
COPYRIGHT AND DISCLAIMER
                                            • Australia Post
© 2014 CSIRO. To the extent
                                            • National E-Health Transition Authority (NEHTA)
permitted by law, all rights
are reserved and no part of                 • Jemena
this publication covered by                 Lastly, CSIRO would also like to acknowledge the support of the Digital
copyright may be reproduced                 Productivity and Services Flagship members Ian Oppermann, Jay Guo, Sarah
or copied in any form or by                 Dods, Geof Heydon and Helen Sargent, as well as assistance and insights provided
any means except with the                   by CSIRO’s Computational Informatics staff John Colton, John Zic, Surya Nepal,
written permission of CSIRO.                Dimitrios Georgakopoulos, David Hansen, and Mark Paterson (Energy Flagship).

B    Enabling Australia’s Digital Future: cyber security trends and implications
Enabling Australia's Digital Future: cyber security trends and implications DIGITAL PRODUCTIVITY AND SERVICES - csiro
Contents

Executive Summary        3   Increased technology            Cyber security threats:        An increasingly
                             dependence: our                 a familiar yet evolving        vulnerable environment 28
Introduction             4   digital future             9    landscape                 23   A changing paradigm        29
Objectives and scope     4   Customer technology-use         Understanding cyber            Implications of a breach   29
Approach                 4   trends                  12      threats                   24
                                                                                            Scenario analysis          30
The Australian context   5   Provider technology-use         Threat actors             24
                             trends                     15   Evolving threat                Enabling Australia’s
A changing landscape     6                                                                  digital future: key
                             Customer-Provider               landscape                 26
Healthcare               7   technology-use trends      19                                  considerations             35
                                                             Implications going
Energy (Electricity)     7   Implications for ICT            forward                   27   People                     36
Government               8   support infrastructure     21                                  Process                    37
                             A complex digital future   22                                  Technology                 38
                                                                                            Conclusion                 38

                                                                                            References                 39

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Enabling Australia's Digital Future: cyber security trends and implications DIGITAL PRODUCTIVITY AND SERVICES - csiro
2   Enabling Australia’s Digital Future: cyber security trends and implications
Enabling Australia's Digital Future: cyber security trends and implications DIGITAL PRODUCTIVITY AND SERVICES - csiro
Executive Summary
Australia’s digital future is set to transform the nation. Our transition towards a more
digital economy will drive economic progress, improve social wellbeing, and open up new
opportunities for innovation and increased competitiveness on the global stage.

Continued technological advancement         Advancements in technology may be            Taking this direction requires a change
and rapid adoption are central to our       contributing to these evolving security      in perspective, recognising that cyber
progress, as new developments spur          challenges, but they are also a key          security is not solely a technology
more innovative business models,            part of the solution. Developments in        challenge. It is also a cultural challenge,
products and services, which are            data analytics and machine learning          and one that extends beyond traditional
crucial in responding to key national       are allowing us to better understand         information security practices. Alongside
and sectoral challenges - such as rising    network anomalies and harness big data.      investment in new cyber security tools
healthcare costs, increasing household      Progress in cryptography techniques are      and technologies that can keep pace
electricity prices and Government           helping to better secure information.        with evolving threat challenges, our
pressures to do more with less. As          And sophisticated risk management            nation’s future strategies require a
technology and digital solutions            modelling tools are allowing leaders to      commitment to improving cyber security
continue to play a key role in driving      make more informed cyber decisions.          skills, awareness and education, as
the economy and society forward, they                                                    well as an imperative to evolve cyber
                                            Whilst progress has been made
become increasingly embedded into                                                        security perceptions to understand
                                            towards improving and advancing
business operations, across key service                                                  the central role this capability has
                                            cyber security solutions, we are at
offerings and into our personal lives.                                                   in enabling our digital future.
                                            risk of becoming complacent. Amidst
Australia’s future is digital, hyper-       an environment of continuous, rapid          Successfully navigating the road ahead
connected and critically dependent          change, with increasing levels of            will require a whole-of-nation effort,
on technology, making strong cyber          complexity and uncertainty, we cannot        harnessing the full range of resources
security capability crucial to navigating   afford to rely solely on past and present    available across our economy. Alongside
the associated risks and opportunities      solutions. Ensuring Australia’s digital      existing national and defence-related
ahead. Our increased dependence on          success into the future will require         strategies, the research community
technology, combined with the evolving      bold cyber security leadership and           in partnership with industry and
complexity and sophistication of cyber      further investment now. It will require      Government have a vital role to play,
security threats, together increase our     ongoing science and technology               through applying innovation and
level of vulnerability – at a national,     research that can identify emerging          cutting-edge technology to the people,
organisational and individual level.        cyber security challenges and develop        process and technology solutions
                                            practical solutions. And it will require a   needed going forward. Through
                                            cultural shift, extending cyber security     the integration of knowledge, ideas
                                            responsibility out to every organisation,    and resources, we can ensure strong
                                            every government, and every individual.      cyber security capability is at the core
                                                                                         of a digitally-enabled Australia.

                                                                                         Dr Ian Oppermann
                                                                                         Director, Digital Productivity
                                                                                         and Services Flagship, CSIRO

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Enabling Australia's Digital Future: cyber security trends and implications DIGITAL PRODUCTIVITY AND SERVICES - csiro
Introduction

Australia’s transition to a digital
economy is opening up new and exciting
                                                       Objectives and scope                                • A changing landscape. Focusing on
                                                                                                              three key representative sectors –
opportunities for innovation and global                The objectives of this report are to:                  healthcare, energy and government
competitiveness. It is driving change                                                                         – this section provides an overview
across key sectors such as healthcare,                 • increase general awareness                           of broad economic and social
energy and government and facilitating                   and understanding of digital                         trends, which are driving change
greater levels of social and economic                    trends and implications for                          and leading to increased digitisation
prosperity. However, these new                           cyber security in Australia;                         and technology use nationally;
opportunities are also driving a greater               • provide a broad overview of                       • Increased technology dependence:
dependence on technology – which                         the current and future cyber                         our digital future. Looking at emerging
is constantly evolving, increasing in                    security needs and challenges                        technology trends, this section analyses
complexity and continuously exposed                      on a national level;                                 how technology usage and dependence
to a sophisticated landscape of cyber                                                                         is changing across each of the sectors.
                                                       • present key considerations and
threats. This challenge is compounded                    strategic questions to serve as input                A technology-use framework is
when you consider the blurring lines                     for forward planning and investment                  adopted, which considers various
between people, organisations,                           considerations into the future.                      usage trends across sectoral providers
processes, services and technologies                                                                          (organisations) and customers
                                                       A time frame of approximately
that require seamless interaction and                                                                         (consumers), and broader technology
                                                       ten years (to 2025) has been
trust across the cyber ecosystem.                                                                             trends related to underlying ICT
                                                       considered in analysing trends and
As a result, our national progress is                  presenting future scenarios.                           support infrastructure;
directly tied to our ability to minimise                                                                   • Cyber security threats: a familiar
                                                       Key considerations and strategic
risk exposure without limiting                                                                                yet evolving landscape. Considering
                                                       questions for cyber security have been
progress – making cyber security a                                                                            the cyber security threats landscape,
                                                       posed in the broad areas of people,
capability of crucial importance.                                                                             this section explores various types
                                                       process and technology. Specific
                                                                                                              of threats, different threat actors and
                                                       recommendations have not been
                                                                                                              their motivations, as well as how
                                                       included in this report, as they will be
                                                                                                              the landscape overall is evolving in
                                                       the subject of further collaborative effort
                                                                                                              complexity and sophistication;
                                                       in partnership with industry, government
                                                       and the research community. The                     • An increasingly vulnerable
                                                       questions posed are intended as                        environment. Combining increased
                                                       input into these further discussions                   technology dependence and
                                                       and strategic planning activities.                     connectivity, alongside a more
                                                                                                              sophisticated and complex threat
                                                                                                              landscape, this section examines
                                                       Approach                                               the implications on our level of
                                                                                                              cyber security vulnerability.*
                                                       Like any complex system, cyber space
                                                                                                              Considered from a broad, national
                                                       is made up of many interrelated
                                                                                                              perspective, potential exploitation
                                                       parts, which can be examined to
                                                                                                              of vulnerabilities is explored
                                                       help us better understand the overall
                                                                                                              using three future scenarios
                                                       system – and in this case, to help
                                                                                                              across each of the key sectors;
                                                       us gain a clearer understanding
                                                       of our cyber security needs and
                                                       challenges going forward. Figure 1.0
                                                       highlights this approach, reflected
                                                       in the report structure as follows:

*This methodology of technology dependency overlaid with threats to understand vulnerabilities has been adapted from collaborations with DSTO,
 as well as from other cyber security methodologies.(1),(2),(3) Traditionally, vulnerability assessments are conducted at a very technical level within
 organisations. For this paper we have adopted the methodology to look broadly at vulnerabilities across national sectors.

4      Enabling Australia’s Digital Future: cyber security trends and implications
Enabling Australia's Digital Future: cyber security trends and implications DIGITAL PRODUCTIVITY AND SERVICES - csiro
• Enabling Australia’s digital future:
  key considerations. Bringing
                                         The Australian context                       • The Australian Bureau of
                                                                                        Statistics Personal Fraud Survey
  together the dependency, threat and    A common question raised in response           indicated that over the 12 month
  vulnerability analyses, this section   to cyber security is whether threats           period from 2010-11(8):
  looks at the broad implications for    and breaches are happening here in             – An estimated 1.2 million
  Australia’s current and future cyber   Australia. Much of the cyber security            Australians aged 15 years and
  security, outlining key strategic      data and cases reported point to other           over were victim to at least one
  questions for consideration in         countries around the world, which can            incident of personal fraud
  enabling Australia’s digital future.   lead to a misconception that this is not       – Australians lost $1.4 billion as
                                         an issue to be taken seriously on our            a result of personal fraud
FIGURE 1.0 – APPROACH SUMMARY            own soil. It is not possible to present
                                                                                        – An estimated 44,700 Australians
                                         a complete picture of cyber security
                                                                                          were victims of identity theft
                                         threats and breaches due to many
 Broad social and economic trends        cases going unreported or being of a           – Approximately 6.4 million
                                         classified nature and therefore unable           Australians were exposed to a scam
 DRIVING                                 to be publicly shared. However, publicly
                                         available information provides enough
 Increased use of and                    data to illustrate the reality of the            ASIO building plans stolen
 dependence on technology                challenge we are facing here in Australia:
                                                                                          It has been reported the
 INCREASING EXPOSURE TO                  • Whilst many instances of cybercrime            Australian Security Intelligence
                                           go unreported, non-government                  Organisation (ASIO) building
 More complex and                          estimates put the cost of cybercrime           security and communication
 sophisticated cyber threats               in Australia as high as $2 billion             systems blueprints were stolen in
                                           annually.(4) Defence estimates that            a major cyber attack in 2013.(9)
 LEADING TO                                in 2012, 5.4 million Australians
                                           were victims of cyber crime.(5)
 Increased levels of cyber               • According to antivirus vendor
 security vulnerability                    Trend Micro, Australian computers               Assuming deceased identities
                                           experienced 17,692,567 malware                  An unlawful foreign national
 HEIGHTENING                               infections in 2008. Australia                   falsely assumed the identity of
                                           reported the fifth highest level                four deceased individuals, with
 Impacts of cyber breaches                 of infections worldwide.(6)                     almost $76,000 of false benefit
 (explored through future scenarios)     • CERT Australia, the national computer           claims made.(10)
                                           emergency response team and the
 PROVIDING THE IMPERATIVE FOR              single point of contact for cyber
                                           security issues affecting major             This is just a snapshot of data
 Collaborative, targeted action            Australian businesses, reported             highlighting the reality that cyber
 and investment in cyber security          close to 7,300 incidents in 2012.           security challenges are not confined
 solutions – across people,                The following year, incidents               to a just handful of nations – every
 process and technology                    increased, with approximately               country is affected and every country
                                           8,500 reported by mid-August.(7)            has a role to play in enabling better
                                                                                       national and global cyber security.

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Enabling Australia's Digital Future: cyber security trends and implications DIGITAL PRODUCTIVITY AND SERVICES - csiro
A changing landscape
Understanding Australia’s
cyber security needs and
challenges is a complex task,
considering technology use
and digital connectivity cut
across all sectors, organisations
and individuals, in multiple
ways and to varying degrees.
In considering this complex system,
we have focused on a subset of
sectors to help us understand the
broader national picture and the
common trends and patterns evolving
across all dimensions. The three
sectors are healthcare (focussing on
health services), energy (focussing on
electricity) and government (focussing
on government services), all of which
are considered critical to Australia’s
sustained economic prosperity and
social wellbeing, and whose services
impact the wider population.

The following section presents an
overview of the broad economic and
social trends across these sectors,
which are driving change and leading
to increased digitisation and use of
technology. These trends serve as a
backdrop to the detailed technology
dependency analysis that follows.

6    Enabling Australia’s Digital Future: cyber security trends and implications
Enabling Australia's Digital Future: cyber security trends and implications DIGITAL PRODUCTIVITY AND SERVICES - csiro
Healthcare                                                                                  Energy (Electricity)

  SECTOR SUMMARY                              • More people are using health services,        SECTOR SUMMARY
                                                driving healthcare costs up
  The healthcare sector is in the midst                                                       The electricity grid is modernising
                                                exponentially. More Australians (young
  of a turbulent transformation.                                                              towards a smart grid, improving
                                                and old) are increasingly visiting
  As the population ages and                                                                  visibility, reliability, monitoring
                                                doctors, having a higher number of
  lifestyle-related illness continues                                                         and control of the electricity
                                                tests and operations and taking more
  to rise, increasing pressure will be                                                        network. In addition to enabling
                                                prescription medication.(17) These
  placed on the healthcare system,                                                            a greater use of emerging
                                                conditions are resulting in higher
  with costs expected to grow to                                                              technologies (such as renewables),
                                                healthcare costs per person and
  unsustainable proportions. This                                                             modernisation will help to reduce
                                                increased health expenditure across the
  creates an increasingly challenging                                                         operating costs, particularly
                                                system, with government health
  environment in which healthcare                                                             those related to servicing peak
                                                spending in Australia estimated to grow
  providers will need to operate,                                                             demands, which account for a large
                                                from 4% of GDP in 2009-10 to 7.1% in
  with several implications for the                                                           portion of Australia’s electricity
                                                2049-50.(14) Unchecked, healthcare
  health services industry. Demand                                                            expenditure. This will in turn help
                                                expenditure could consume as much as
  for health services will continue                                                           to control electricity price rises
                                                40% of Australian taxes by 2043.(18)
  to grow, as will expenditure,                                                               and consumer bill ‘price shocks’.
  driving changes in the nature and           • Demands on health services workers
  delivery of care, as well as creating         are changing. By 2050, the demand
  new models for care outside of                for aged care staff will quadruple
                                                due to an ageing population.(19)
                                                                                            Key trends:
  existing traditional institutions.
                                                An increased number of aged and             • Household electricity prices are
                                                chronically ill patients will also likely     increasing. Household electricity
                                                increase the need for longer-term             prices increased by 70% between
Key trends:                                     care, requiring a greater breadth             2007 and 2012,(22) resulting in a ‘price
• Australia’s population is ageing.             of skills to allow workers to be              shock’ to Australian consumers. Whilst
  Between 2012 and 2060 the number              more effective with these patients.(20)       there are a number of reasons for
  of people aged over 75 years                  The result will be greater competition        this increase, a large portion was as a
  will grow by approximately four               for healthcare workers.                       result of network costs (such as major
  million people, an increase roughly         • Delivery of care is changing, from            electricity network upgrades),(23) which
  equivalent to the current population          institutions to independence.                 are forecast to increase. The current
  of Sydney.(11) This is in part due to         There will be an increased drive              five year cycle for transmission and
  advancements in science, technology           away from institutional care and              distribution networks, for example, will
  and healthcare, which are enabling            towards alternative community and             see an increase in investment of 16%
  people to live longer. In 1901, the           independent care options, with                and 60% (real terms) respectively.(24)
  average life expectancy in Australia          advances in technology enabling             • Servicing peak demand is expected to
  was just 47 years;(12) by 2025, it            this transition.(21) Additionally,            remain a key cost driver. To ensure
  will increase to over 80 years.(13)           in comparison to previous                     reliability of services and electricity
• Lifestyle-related illness and                 generations, Australia’s elders               generation, network capacity is
  chronic disease are on the rise.              will be better educated and more              designed to accommodate the highest
  Non-communicable diseases such                tech-savvy, with improved financial           amount of electricity consumption
  as cardiovascular disease, cancer,            resources, more purchasing power,             (peak demand) at any point in time.
  respiratory disease and diabetes, will        and higher expectations.(13)                  This peak demand is often driven by
  account for almost 69% of total deaths                                                      extremes in weather, such as a heat
  in 2030 (up from 59% in 2002).(14)                                                          wave or cold snap. By its nature, peak
  The World Health Organisation is                                                            demand occurs infrequently, yet still
  calling this an ‘invisible epidemic’.(15)                                                   requires a large proportion of
  The Australian Institute of Health and                                                      investment. For example, in New South
  Welfare note that from 2003-2033,                                                           Wales, peak demand events occurring
  treatment costs for diabetes alone                                                          for less than 40 hours per year (or
  will increase by as much as 436% to                                                         less than 1% of the time) account for
  $8.6 billion.(16)                                                                           around 25% of retail electricity bills.(22)
                                                                                              Whilst future rates of peak demand are
                                                                                              uncertain, limiting its growth is

                                                                                                                                        7
Enabling Australia's Digital Future: cyber security trends and implications DIGITAL PRODUCTIVITY AND SERVICES - csiro
projected to save 2 c/kWh each year on
    the costs of electricity distribution
                                                             Government                              • Governments face increasing
                                                                                                       pressure to do more with less.
    between 2020 and 2050.(23)                                                                         As demand for government services
• The use of renewable power                                                                           increases and budgets tighten,
                                                          SECTOR SUMMARY                               pressure will continue to be placed
    generation is growing. There is
    growing societal pressure to reduce                   Government departments and                   on governments to ‘do more with
    the electricity sector’s greenhouse gas               agencies are digitising processes,           less’. Virtually all governments are
    emissions, which in Australia is the                  systems and services in the face of          reducing staff levels, often without
    single largest source of emissions.(23)               greater consumer expectations,               any real reduction in service levels.(29)
    This is resulting in a significant push               tightening budgets and increasingly          Governments that can adapt and move
    for renewable energy sources such as                  complex operating environments.              to shared models of services, labour
    wind, solar, hydro and geothermal.                    This transition to a more                    and resources through increasingly
    By 2049-50, it is expected that                       connected, digital government or             networked and digitised approaches,
    approximately 51% of Australia’s                      ‘e-government’, is occurring at both         will have the ability to remain lean but
    electricity generation will be from                   state and federal levels and includes        still deliver on their mission.(29) In line
    renewable sources (up from 13% in                     an increase in online services,              with this, the Department of Finance
    2012-13) with a large percentage coming               coordinated whole-of-government              estimates that their co-ordinated,
    from wind (21%) and solar (16%).(25)                  strategies (such as consolidated ICT         whole-of government approach to
                                                          infrastructure), as well as improved         data centres will avoid $1 billion in
• The grid is moving towards two-way                                                                   costs over the next 10-15 years.(30)
                                                          collaboration and information
    management and control. Australia’s
                                                          sharing across government and              • Digitised services can help to cut
    electricity grid largely operates with
                                                          with businesses and citizens.                costs and increase productivity.
    systems, processes and technologies
    that are designed to manage energy                                                                 Globally, successful e-government
    flow in a single direction – from large                                                            projects have reduced transaction
    generators to customers. However,                    Key trends:                                   costs and processing times, and
    improvements in technology (including                                                              increased government revenues.(29)
                                                        • Consumer preferences are changing.           In Australia, the introduction of the
    renewable technology) supported                       Consumers are increasingly choosing
    by changes in policy, are enabling                                                                 Department of Immigration and
                                                          to interact via online channels and will
    electricity to be generated at or close                                                            Citizenship’s ‘SkillSelect’ system in
                                                          expect that governments are agile and
    to the point of consumption. This                                                                  2012 has seen a 200% increase in
                                                          keep pace with private sector digital
    allows surplus power to be fed back                                                                online skilled migrant applications
                                                          maturity. In 2012, Australians showed
    into the distribution network.(22) This                                                            and a 20-30% reduction in referrals
                                                          a strong preference for the use of
    concept, known as distributed (or                                                                  to exception processing at Sydney
                                                          e-government service channels over
    on-site) generation, creates two-way                                                               Airport through the Border Risk
                                                          other means of interaction, with two
    energy flows, which must be carefully                                                              Identification System.(28) Digitised
                                                          thirds of people using e-government
    monitored to ensure reliability.                                                                   services can also assist governments
                                                          for their most recent contact.(27) By
                                                                                                       to contribute to productivity gains
• New developments are leading to                         2020, four out of five Australians will
                                                                                                       across the economy, through
    a smarter grid. Requirements to                       choose to engage with Government
                                                                                                       unlocking value in shared data.(31)
    manage peak demand, decrease                          through the internet or other types of
    carbon emissions and facilitate on-site               online service.(28) However, in order      • Governments are operating in an
    generation are driving a modernised,                  to satisfy consumer expectations             increasingly complex environment.
    ‘smarter’ electricity grid, allowing                  into the future, governments will            The issues faced by the public sector
    greater visibility, reliability, monitoring           need to recognise the importance             are increasingly multi-dimensional in
    and control of the network. This                      of convenience in interactions and           nature and require more collaborative
    modernisation (which includes the                     the need to meet or exceed private           effort between governments,
    roll-out of smart meters) is not unique               sector service standards.(27)                departments, agencies and public and
    to Australia. USA, Canada, Europe,                                                                 private communities to innovate and
    Great Britain, Ireland, Japan and                                                                  develop more sophisticated solutions.
                                                                                                       (29) A key theme from the 2012 OECD
    Korea for example, all have regions
    with smart grid and smart meter                                                                    E-Leaders meeting(32) acknowledged
    projects deployed or underway.(26)                                                                 this, stating that governments need to
                                                                                                       take steps to defragment as they are
                                                                                                       historically structured to solve domain-
                                                                                                       specific problems. ICT and better
                                                                                                       information flow across boundaries
                                                                                                       were seen as key enablers of improved
                                                                                                       collaboration and co-ordination.

8       Enabling Australia’s Digital Future: cyber security trends and implications
Increased technology dependence:
our digital future   The world is undergoing a digital transformation,
                     driven by rapid technological innovation and
                     uptake. Technology is becoming increasingly
                     embedded into our personal lives, the way we
                     do business and the way we govern our nation.
                     This is transforming Australia into a truly digital
                     and highly competitive economy, with cyber
                     security capability central to our success.

                                                                      9
To understand our future cyber
                                                                                               FIGURE 2.0 – TECHNOLOGY-USE FRAMEWORK
security needs, it is important to
gain an appreciation of our future
technology dependence. Given the pace
                                                                                               CUSTOMER                       PROVIDER
of technology change, it is impossible
                                                                                               (Citizen or Business)          (Healthcare and Energy
to predict exactly how technology
                                                                                                                              providers; Government
usage will evolve over the next decade.
                                                                                                                              Departments and Agencies)
However, signs of our digital future are
                                                        Processes supported by software that
                                                          runs on ICT support infrastructure
already here. Pockets of our economy

                                                                                                                                                                          TECHNOLOGY USERS
                                                                                               Customer only                  Provider only
that are more progressive, as well as                                                          How will customers use         How will providers use
specific technologies that are highly                                                          technology in the future?      technology in the future?
advanced and ahead of the curve, give
us insight into how the nation could be                                                        Customer-to-customer           Provider-to-provider
transformed if adoption was widespread.                                                        How will customers use         How will providers use
                                                                                               technology to change the       technology to change the
In exploring some of these                                                                     way they interact with         way they interact with
developments, this section focuses on                                                          each other in the future?      each other in the future?
emerging technology usage trends across
the key sectors of healthcare, energy
                                                                                               Customer-to-Provider and Provider-to-Customer
(electricity) and government, providing
                                                                                               How will customers and providers use technology to change
a snapshot of our digital future.
                                                                                               the way they interact with each other in the future?
Adopting a technology-use framework
(Figure 2.0), we consider emerging                                                             ICT Support Infrastructure

                                                                                                                                                                          TECHNOLOGY ENABLERS
technology usage trends across sectoral
providers (organisations) and customers                                                        • Networks (such as fixed (LAN), wireless
                                                                                                 (Wi-Fi), mobile (2G, 3G, 4G), cloud etc.)
(consumers), and how these and broader
technology trends are impacting                                                                • End-points (such as PCs, laptops, tablets, Smartphones,
underlying ICT support infrastructure.                                                           smart meters, supervisory controls, sensors, wearable
Customers and providers are considered                                                           devices etc.)
to be the primary technology users, with                                                       • Data storage (such as storage on secure servers,
underlying ICT support infrastructure                                                            caching on mobile devices etc.)
components presented as the enablers
                                                                                               • Processing (such as processing in servers (private or
to that usage (i.e. the systems, networks,                                                       cloud), and at client-end (such as hand held devices))
processes and devices that allow us to
use and interface with technology).
The technology-use framework presents
a simplified picture of what is in reality
a complex ecosystem of non-linear,
dynamic processes, platforms and
interactions. It is not intended as a
                                                                                               Across each of the sectors, providers and customers are considered to be:
comprehensive model, acknowledging
that the lines between all dimensions
of users and technology enablers are                                                                           CUSTOMERS                     PROVIDERS
becoming increasingly blurred and
interconnected. The trends explored                                                            Healthcare      Citizens and recipients       Public and private
are also not intended to be exhaustive,                                                                        of health services            hospitals, GPs,
but provide an evidence-based                                                                                                                allied health, etc
indication of how the sectors and our
                                                                                               Energy          Citizens and businesses       Electricity generators,
nation are digitally evolving. Figure 3.0
                                                                                               (Electricity)   that are recipients of        distributors and retailers
provides a high level summary of these
                                                                                                               electricity services
trends, which are explored in detail
in the next section. This provides us                                                          Government All citizens and                   All government
with the foundation to explore cyber                                                                      businesses                         departments and agencies
security implications going forward.

10    Enabling Australia’s Digital Future: cyber security trends and implications
FIGURE 3.0 – TECHNOLOGY DEPENDENCY TREND SUMMARY

             CUSTOMER                            PROVIDER                                                       CUSTOMER-PROVIDER
             TECHNOLOGY-USE TRENDS               TECHNOLOGY-USE TRENDS                                          TECHNOLOGY-USETRENDS

             SUMMARY: The future customer        SUMMARY: The future provider will be data                      SUMMARY: The future customer-
             will be increasingly empowered,     driven, breaking down existing barriers to share               provider relationship will open
             with greater choice, a louder       information, skills, knowledge and infrastructure,             up unprecedented levels of
             voice and a stronger connection     within and outside of their organisation.                      communication, personalisation
             to local and global communities.                                                                   and collaborative engagement,
                                                                                                                improving service delivery and creating
                                                                                                                new opportunities for growth.

             Customer only                       Provider only                                                  Customer-to-Provider/
             • Shifting from provider-           • Rapidly evolving service delivery by                         Provider-to-Customer
               centric to patient-centric          transitioning to a more digital environment                  • Relationship between customers
             • Customers more actively           • Enabled by electronic health records,                          and healthcare providers will
               involved in own care                cloud computing and mobility, and a new                        continue to evolve and deepen
             • Enabled by personal health          generation of diagnostic technologies                        • Greater personalisation and
               records, personal monitoring                                                                       more frequent interactions
                                                 Provider-to-Provider
HEALTH

               devices and mobile applications                                                                  • Increased opportunity for
                                                 • Shifting from silos to a connected
                                                                                                                  preventative care and outreach
             Customer-to-Customer                  health services ecosystem
                                                                                                                  through new remote care
             • Relationship expanding to         • Integrating of data, knowledge and expertise                   and consultation models
               encompass patient, family         • Enabling improved diagnosis, treatment,
               and the community                   patient mobility, access to care and
             • Increasingly empowered              scientific research opportunities
               and connected patients
             • Enabled largely by social media
               and community websites

             Customer only                       Provider only                                                  Customer-to-Provider/
             • Shifting from reactive            • Step change in decision-making and load                      Provider-to-Customer
               and consumption-based               forecasting by combining real-time smart meter               • Evolving relationship between
               to more engaged and                 data and advanced analytics and modelling                      customers and providers as smart
               proactive customers               • Greater application of advancements                            meters improve communication
             • Generating own energy and           in remote monitoring, distributed                              and real-time monitoring
               monitoring consumption              generation and storage technologies                          • Greater information
             • Enabled by real-time data                                                                          sharing, improved demand
                                                 Provider-to-Provider
                                                                                                                  management and personalised
ENERGY

               from smart meters and apps
               connected to appliances,          • Provider-to-provider relationship transforming,                energy pricing schemes
               buildings and homes                 integrating data and information through use
                                                                                                                • Incorporation of personal electricity
                                                   of smart meters
                                                                                                                  generation back into the grid
             Customer-to-Customer                • Enabling smarter electricity grid, increased
             • Interacting in new ways             grid efficiencies and greater control
               and influencing electricity         and reliability of electricity
               developments e.g. new
               consumer electricity
               sharing models
             • Enabled by social media and
               energy technology advances

             Customer-to-Customer                Provider only                                                  Customer-to-Provider/
             • Rise of ‘e-democracy’             • Digitising operations to reduce costs and increase           Provider-to-Customer
               leading to more policy              flexibility e.g. leveraging cloud services, analytics, etc   • Interactions increasingly
               debate and discussion             • Improving processes and employee flexibility                   moving online
GOVERNMENT

             • Faster, larger scale                through teleworking and mobility technologies                • Enabling improved communication,
               conversations happening                                                                            greater control (self-management),
               outside of government             Provider-to-Provider
                                                                                                                  increased information accessibility,
               channels – presents               • Greater sharing of data and services,                          more efficient transactions
               opportunities and challenges        infrastructure consolidation and whole-                        and lower cost to serve
             • Enabled by social media             of-gov. technology roadmaps
                                                                                                                • Leading to improved experience,
               and online collaboration          • Greater integration, process efficiencies, reduced             especially when dealing
                                                   duplication, improved decision-making and a                    with multiple departments
                                                   better view of operations and national needs                   and/or agencies

                                                                                                                                                          11
Customer technology-use trends
The future customer will be increasingly empowered, with greater choice, a louder
voice and a stronger connection to local and global communities.

       Healthcare                                       • Growth in the use and sophistication
                                                          of smart phones and mobile
                                                                                                  • Online health platforms are using
                                                                                                    innovative approaches to connect
                                                          applications (apps) is empowering         consumers to one another in a
                                                          individuals with unprecedented            more personalised way, as well
     CUSTOMER ONLY                                        control of their personal health. In      as improving the information on
     The focus in health services is                      2012, one in five US smart phone          offer. Online patient community
     shifting from being provider-centric                 owners had at least one health app        PatientsLikeMe engages with and
     to patient-centric, with customers                   and 31% used their phones to look         empowers individuals through
     taking a more active role in their                   up medical information.(38) By 2016,      knowledge and peer support,
     own care through the use of                          as many as 142 million downloads          connecting those with similar medical
     personal health records, personal                    of mobile health and fitness apps is      conditions and allowing for tracking
     monitoring devices and mobile                        anticipated.(39)                          and sharing of personal experiences.
     applications. This shift is expected                                                           Launched in 2004, PatientsLikeMe
     to play a pivotal role in creating                                                             now has over 200,000 patients on the
                                                          CUSTOMER-TO-CUSTOMER                      platform and tracks 1,800 diseases.(42)
     a proactive and preventative
     health culture in Australia.                         Through the use of social media,        • Consumers are increasingly being
                                                          the healthcare relationship is            given more power and a stronger
                                                          expanding beyond the traditional          voice through social media.
Early indicators:                                         patient-doctor relationship to            Independent site Patient Opinion(43)
                                                          include a new customer-to-customer        allows patients to share feedback
• Australian Government’s personally                      relationship, encompassing the            on experiences with health service
     controlled electronic health record                  patient, their family and the             providers, helping others to make
     (PCEHR) is enabling individuals to                   community. These relationships            decisions about their own care, as
     own and control their own personal                   will result in increasingly               well as driving improvements within
     health record, as well as share it.                  empowered and connected                   the healthcare system. Significantly,
     PCEHR provides significant value                     individuals, moving care away             high volumes of feedback have been
     to those with chronic illness and                    from being a solitary experience.         experienced from hard-to-reach
     disabilities, caregivers for the elderly
                                                                                                    groups such as the elderly, disabled
     and parents with small children.(33)
                                                                                                    and homeless, which Patient Opinion
     By 2013/14, PCEHRs are expected to
                                                        Early indicators:                           CEO attributes to people wanting
     reach 1.5 million registrations.(34)
                                                                                                    “their voice to count for something,
• The market for wearable health                        • One third of Americans have gone          especially vulnerable people… this is
     and fitness devices (such as wrist                   online to better understand theirs
                                                                                                    because they normally don’t know
     watches, chest and arm bands) is                     or another’s medical condition, with
                                                                                                    how to get their voice heard.”(44)
     growing rapidly and estimated to                     26% in 2012 having read about or
     reach 170 million devices in 2017, up                watched someone else’s experience
     from 21 million in 2011.(35) This new                with health or medical issues, and
     generation of wearable devices have                  16% having tried to find others who
     the ability to monitor and wirelessly                share similar health concerns.(40)
     transmit health data on blood                      • Health content and community
     pressure, heart sounds and electrical                websites are continuing to spring up,
     activity, body and skin temperature,                 offering up-to-date, often expert-
     respiration, oxygen saturation and                   checked information and advice to
     blood glucose.(36) Advancements will                 consumers on medical conditions.
     continue, evidenced by radical new                   Medical website WebMD has grown
     innovations, such as the smart contact               in popularity exponentially, with an
     lens for Glaucoma detection.(37)                     estimated 80 million unique visitors
                                                          per month (as of March 2014),(41)
                                                          providing knowledge, as well as
                                                          hundreds of discussion communities,
                                                          where members and experts can share
                                                          and respond to health questions.

12      Enabling Australia’s Digital Future: cyber security trends and implications
Energy                                 • At-home (on-site) electricity
                                             generation is expected to increase as
                                                                                     Early indicators:
                                             technology costs fall and electricity   • Although currently a minor segment
                                             bills continue to rise. Between 2008      of the car market, electric vehicles
  CUSTOMER ONLY                              and 2012, the total estimated install     are attracting the attention of
                                             capacity of rooftop solar systems         state governments, due to growing
  The focus is shifting from a reactive,
                                             increased from 23MW to 1,450MW;           consumer awareness, goals to improve
  consumption-based model, to one
                                             based on a moderate growth scenario,      air quality, economic benefits and
  where customers (citizens and
                                             the Australian Energy Market Operator     energy infrastructure needs (such
  businesses) are more engaged
                                             (AEMO) estimate that capacity             as re-fuelling stations).(52),(53) Unlike
  and proactively monitoring their
                                             will hit approximately 12,000MW           traditional combustion engine
  energy consumption, through
                                             by 2031.(50) New business models          vehicles, which require refuelling at
  real-time data from smart meters
                                             may increase uptake (such as solar        specialised, infrastructure-intensive
  and applications connected to
                                             leasing schemes found in the US(51)).     locations (i.e. petrol stations),
  appliances, as well as through the
                                             However, the growth rate of solar         electric refuelling can occur almost
  generation of their own energy
                                             rooftop systems (or similar on-site       anywhere, opening the door to new
  (such as the use of renewable
                                             generation methods) will be highly        customer-to-customer electricity
  energy sources).
                                             dependent on Government policy.           sharing models. This is already
                                                                                       happening amongst citizens and
                                                                                       businesses, such as the US City of San
Early indicators:                            CUSTOMER-TO-CUSTOMER                      Francisco, which operates electric
• Energy monitoring, automation and          Advances in technology are                vehicle charging stations in city-
  control for non-residential buildings      enabling customers (citizens and          owned parking facilities, including
  are expected to increase. This will        businesses) to interact in new ways,      the San Francisco International
  be particularly important for heating,     with the potential to influence           Airport.(54) In 2013, the major retailer
  ventilation and air-conditioning           developments in the electricity           Kroger also announced plans to
  (HVAC), which are estimated to             sector. The growth in use of              offer charging stations at a number
  consume 9% of Australia’s electricity      electric vehicles for example, is         of locations.(42) With the electric
  and create over 55% of peak demand         opening the door to new consumer          vehicle market expected to grow to
  in CBD buildings.(45) The value of         electricity sharing models; whilst        5-7% market share of total car sales
  smart meter data to monitor and            increasing use of social media            by 2020(55), electricity sharing in the
  control electricity consumption will       is enabling communities to                consumer market could also increase,
  grow as building energy efficiency         form around common issues of              which has the potential to cause
  standards rise to include six,             concern with a louder voice.              significant shifts in the electricity
  seven and eight star ratings.(46)                                                    sector (for example, through changes
                                                                                       in electricity load requirements(56)).
• Increasing sensitivity to electricity
  price rises is leading to a greater
  adoption of in-home energy
  management devices and
  applications, wirelessly connected
  to data from smart meters. The
  sophistication of energy management
  will increase as homes become
  connected with smart devices
  (machine-to-machine), such as
  the smart fridge, television and
  thermostat.(47) This will allow
  consumers to monitor, control and
  optimise consumption across their
  entire household.(48) In future, this
  may lead to ‘set and forget’ home
  monitoring approaches, allowing
  consumers to completely automate
  electricity consumption-monitoring
  based on their personalised needs.(49)

                                                                                                                              13
• Web-based platforms have the
     potential to strengthen the voice of
                                                             Government
     communities and mobilise change
     around common issues of concern and
     importance. An example in the energy
                                                          CUSTOMER-TO-CUSTOMER
     sector is the debate about smart                     Social media and online
     meter safety. Whilst energy providers                collaboration are enabling a new
     and state government departments                     form of ‘e-democracy’, leading to
     have provided assurances that smart                  unprecedented levels of citizen-
     metering devices are being installed                 to-citizen policy debate and
     safely and meet health and safety                    discussion. As a result, public
     standards,(57),(58) online platforms have            opinion and discourse is occurring
     been used to enable anti-smart meter                 at a faster rate and on a larger
     campaigns. A number of community                     scale outside of government
     websites have sprung up to influence                 channels, posing both challenges
     the banning of smart meters(59) and                  and opportunities for the sector.
     cases of physical meter damage have
     also been investigated by police.(60)
     Whilst smart meter rollout is still                Early indicators:
     continuing in Australia and around
     the world, such groups have the                    • Web-based communication is fast           • Online collaboration to enable
     potential to stall progress, as a strong             evolving to create new opportunities        large-scale change is extending
     community voice demands a response.                  and challenges. The widespread use          beyond the citizen, to include
     As social media and online channels                  of the internet as a communication          businesses with some serious power.
     grow in use and influence, customers                 channel has changed the way we              A large-scale example of this was the
     will continue to demand greater                      disseminate, access and process             2012 co-ordinated online protests
     transparency, access to information                  information, presenting significant         against two proposed laws in the US
     and a voice in decision-making,                      opportunities for greater openness,         Congress – the Stop Online Piracy Act
     requiring electricity sector businesses              transparency and accountability.(61)        (SOPA) and the Protect IP Act (PIPA).
     to engage more closely with the                      Online communication is not new,            Protests were based on concerns that
     community, as well as consider                       but with an increasing number of            measures in these acts would harm
     cultural change elements in the rollout              people connected to the web and             the free distribution of information
     of any new large-scale technologies.                 collaborative platforms constantly          and lead to censorship if abused.(63)
                                                          evolving, citizens from all corners         Several influential websites, such as
                                                          of the world are being empowered            the English Wikipedia, considered
                                                          to discuss key issues, share ideas and      temporarily closing their content in
                                                          effect real change on unprecedented         protest; other sites such as Google,
                                                          levels (such as GetUp!(57) and              Mozilla and Flickr featured protests
                                                          WikiLeaks(58)). However, the anonymity      against the acts; and some shut
                                                          and reach that the web enables can          down completely. It is estimated that
                                                          pose new risks, particularly if             115,000 websites joined the internet
                                                          information is inaccurate, falsified or     protest,(64) which then extended
                                                          misleading.(62) This will require the       offline and was reported globally.
                                                          continued adaptation of policy and          The impact of these collaborative
                                                          regulatory frameworks to reflect            protests was the shelving of the
                                                          and respond to online developments.         piracy bills and ceasing of further
                                                          Despite challenges and risks,               voting and progress.(65) The New York
                                                          citizen-led online communication,           Times called this a “political coming
                                                          including via social media platforms,       of age from the tech industry”.(66)
                                                          will continue to play a key role
                                                          outside of formal government
                                                          communication channels.

14      Enabling Australia’s Digital Future: cyber security trends and implications
Provider technology-use trends
The future provider will be data driven, breaking down existing barriers to share information,
skills, knowledge and infrastructure, within and outside of their organisation.

Healthcare                                • Investment in cloud computing will
                                            increase over the next decade in
                                                                                       Early indicators:
                                            order to drive provider efficiencies       • At a provider level, Australia’s
                                            across IT operations. By 2018, as many       PCEHRs have experienced positive
  PROVIDER ONLY                             as 19,000 hospitals across Asia Pacific      traction, growing from 3,039
                                            will adopt cloud solutions.(69) By 2023,     organisations registered to 4,502
  Providers are rapidly evolving
                                            pay-as-you-go clinical software is also      between May and July 2013. While an
  service delivery through
                                            expected to be used via the cloud            estimate of 53% of General Practices
  transitioning to a more digital
                                            across a number of providers, allowing       (GPs) are currently registered in
  environment, enhanced by
                                            compatibility and interoperability           Australia,(34) greater opportunities
  electronic health records, cloud
                                            of systems from finance to clinical          are possible if adoption increases
  computing and mobility, and a
                                            departments.(69)                             across all providers (such as
  new generation of diagnostic
                                                                                         pharmacies, aged care facilities and
  technologies.                           • Adoption of new and emerging                 hospitals), such as in countries like
                                            diagnostic technologies will reduce
                                                                                         New Zealand, Denmark and Sweden,
                                            testing costs, improve patient
                                                                                         who are further along in provider
Early indicators:                           experience and deliver greater
                                                                                         adoption rates(72). Australia can look
                                            outcomes. The high growth point-
• Digitisation of providers extends                                                      to these international experiences
                                            of-care-testing market, expected to
  beyond adoption of electronic health                                                   for lessons; however progress will
                                            reach over $9 billion by 2019,(70) is
  records and paperless environments.                                                    be highly dependent on sector and
                                            creating a new generation of portable,
  Most providers have begun investing                                                    government policy decisions.
                                            non-invasive, bedside diagnostic
  in the re-architecture of technology                                                 • Video conferencing, analytics and
                                            devices, which provide accurate
  systems, applications and processes.                                                   cloud-based services are enabling
                                            monitoring and results within minutes
  For example, a number of Australian                                                    providers to integrate and leverage
                                            and allow faster physician decision
  hospitals have increased investment                                                    services from specialist providers.
                                            and action times. Phillips and Google
  in wireless technologies to enable                                                     For example, through telemonitoring
                                            are also demonstrating innovative
  care from ambulances to rooms,(67) as                                                  technologies,(73) an experienced
                                            progress through their “Google Glass”
  well as integration of biomedical and                                                  professional can supervise, train and
                                            technology, which will in future
  environmental machine-to-machine                                                       assist a fellow practitioner on medical
                                            allow clinicians to gain hands-free,
  sensors and mobility investments                                                       procedures remotely. In future, this
                                            voice-controlled access to critical
  allowing data to be displayed, stored                                                  may extend to telesurgery, where
                                            information while operating or mobile
  and transferred between central                                                        surgical procedures are conducted
                                            through the hospital – enabling faster
  nursing stations to a physician’s                                                      remotely via a robotic surgical system;
                                            analysis, diagnosis and response.(71)
  tablet or handheld device(68).                                                         such as the pioneering laparoscopic
                                                                                         cholecystectomy successfully
                                            PROVIDER-TO-PROVIDER                         conducted on a patient in 2001 in
                                            Integration of data, knowledge               France.(74) Although feasible, there
                                            and expertise across providers               are still challenges present, such as
                                            (underpinned by the rise of                  network latency and equipment cost.
                                            electronic health records) is
                                            transforming healthcare from siloed
                                            operations to a truly connected
                                            ecosystem of health services. This
                                            will enable improved diagnosis and
                                            treatment, greater patient mobility,
                                            increased access to care and greater
                                            scientific research opportunities.

                                                                                                                                  15
• In combination with real-time
     analytics, health providers will have
                                                             Energy                                  • Providers are facing an explosion of
                                                                                                       data generated by smart meters,
     the ability to make new scientific                                                                which are measuring electricity usage
     discoveries. Hood and Flores predict                                                              in 30 minute intervals (compared to
     the discovery and advancement of
                                                          PROVIDER ONLY                                the historic monthly meter readings).
     health research will shift from being                Energy providers have used                   Across Victoria, this equates to over
     communicated primarily through                       technology for decades to improve            17,000 meter reads per year for
     articles and journals to being                       operations, such as using control            each of the 2.5 million smart meters
     “integrated through digital networks                 systems to drive greater efficiencies        installed across the state.(79) As the
     and heterogeneous databases that                     in energy management. However,               smart grid expands to include smart
     capture data from every clinical                     new technology advancements,                 devices in homes, businesses and
     encounter”.(75) This may improve                     combined with access to real-time            operations, the amount of data
     the efficiency and success of drug                   data via smart meters and data               collected will grow exponentially,
     development and research processes,                  analytics, are enabling a step change        making new developments in big
     which have been estimated to cost                    in operational efficiencies, decision        data analytics of crucial importance
     over $1 billion and take between 10-15               making and load forecasting.                 to the efficiency and effectiveness
     years on average to eventuate.(37)                                                                of the grid going forward.
     A pioneering example of this is the                                                             • Smart meter data combined with
     2013 White House sponsored initiative              Early indicators:                              analytics will increasingly enable
     on open science, “Champions of                                                                    invaluable insight into provider
     Change”. Open scientific data and                  • In addition to improving back-office         operations and customer usage and
     publications from thirteen leading                   functions via applying new IT service
                                                                                                       behaviour. Frost and Sullivan present
     people and organisations is being                    models (such as cloud computing),
                                                                                                       the journey of data-driven utilities
     used to “accelerate progress and                     providers are increasingly adopting
                                                                                                       in Europe evolving from simple
     improve our world”,(76) including an                 and applying emerging technologies
                                                                                                       reporting tools in 2013-15 towards
     initiative publishing 400 trillion data              to significantly improve operational
                                                                                                       advanced analytics and forecasting
     points on disease in partnership with                efficiencies. This ranges from
                                                                                                       by 2020-25.(80) This journey will
     a children’s hospital.                               improvements in maintenance and
                                                                                                       enable opportunities in areas such
                                                          remote monitoring, to the use of
                                                                                                       as cost and process optimisation,
                                                          distributed generation and micro
                                                                                                       load forecasting, customer insight,
                                                          grids (small, self-contained electricity
                                                                                                       new pricing models and data-driven
                                                          networks), which ease the burden of
                                                                                                       decision making. As an example, the
                                                          transmission and distribution to remote
                                                                                                       US utility company Oklahoma Gas and
                                                          Australian communities.(77) With
                                                                                                       Electric (OG&E), which services nearly
                                                          the expectation that energy storage
                                                                                                       800,000 customers, is leveraging
                                                          costs will decline by 50% by 2030,(23)
                                                                                                       analytics and high performance
                                                          providers will also be able to ensure
                                                                                                       database technology to forecast
                                                          higher levels of network reliability,
                                                                                                       energy demand and understand an
                                                          whilst at the same time reducing
                                                                                                       individual customer’s consumption
                                                          costs through deferred or decreased
                                                                                                       data in hours instead of days –
                                                          infrastructure investment.(78)
                                                                                                       processing over 30,000 records per
                                                                                                       customer per year (up from 12 records
                                                                                                       per customer per year).(81) OG&E has
                                                                                                       also experimented with using its
                                                                                                       data to offer variable peak pricing
                                                                                                       programs and time-of-use programs
                                                                                                       that help customers understand
                                                                                                       energy saving opportunities.

16      Enabling Australia’s Digital Future: cyber security trends and implications
PROVIDER-TO-PROVIDER
                                           • The integration of renewable energy
                                             sources will drive increased data
                                                                                          Government
  Integration of data and information        sharing among providers, enabling
  through the use of smart meters is         improved monitoring, forecasting
                                             and reliability. Operations can be
                                                                                         PROVIDER ONLY
  set to transform the provider-to-
  provider relationship and enable           significantly impacted by variability       In addition to improving processes
  a smarter electricity grid. This will      in wind and solar energy output,            and allowing greater mobility of
  help to increase efficiencies across       which is highly dependent on                employees, individual government
  the grid and allow for greater             local weather conditions.(83) With          departments and agencies are
  control and reliability of electricity     Australian wind generation expected         digitising operations – eliminating
  (particularly in the management            to rise from over 2,500MW in 2013 to        paper processes, leveraging
  of electricity generated by                approximately 11,500MW in 2020,(84)         cloud services and developing
  renewable energy sources).                 providers (particularly distributors        analytics capabilities – to reduce
                                             and generators) will need to share          costs and increase flexibility.
                                             a significant amount of data and
                                             information to closely monitor and
Early indicators:                            control any fluctuations in generation.   Early indicators:
• Australia is heading towards a             This will include using forecasting
  more integrated, efficient, smarter        algorithms to combine current             • The use of cloud computing in
  electricity grid, made up of smart         and historic load, with weather             Government is on the rise. The US
  meters, automated energy control           and geographic data to create               Federal Government cloud computing
  and management systems, and                new forecasts.(85) If not managed           market alone is expected to reach $10
  process and policy change. This will       adequately, power issues could result,      billion in annual value by 2018.(87) This
  help to transform siloed generation,       such as voltage spikes, which can           is reflective of the implementation
  distribution and retail activities         impact reliability and safety.(56)          of the US Government’s “Cloud First”
  into a truly integrated system that is                                                 policy, adopted in 2011, with improved
                                           • The combination of smart meter
  digital, two-way, self-monitoring and                                                  efficiency, agility and innovation
                                             infrastructure and renewable energy
  self-healing, adaptive and, among                                                      as the major drivers.(88) European
                                             sources across the grid will result
  other things, facilitates distributed                                                  Governments are also moving to
                                             in unprecedented levels of data
  generation and greater customer                                                        cloud solutions to boost business and
                                             communication across the grid
  choice.(82) In the long term, this                                                     achieve cost savings and efficiency
                                             and a significant reliance on data
  smart grid may expand to become                                                        improvements.(89) Australia has set
                                             communication networks. Using
  Australia-wide, encompassing                                                           its own goals for transitioning to
                                             the Victorian smart meter example
  all current state energy grids.(22)                                                    the cloud, releasing the Australian
                                             from earlier, the state would be
  However, integration will require                                                      Government Cloud Computing
                                             conducting over 42.5 billion meter
  greater smart meter penetration,                                                       Policy in 2013, stating: The Australian
                                             reads per year (17,000 reads per year
  which today is highly dependent on                                                     Government will be a leader in the
                                             x 2.5 million smart meters).(79) In
  state-based policy and direction.                                                      use of cloud services to achieve
                                             the US, the Massachusetts Institute
                                                                                         greater efficiency, generate greater
                                             of Technology (MIT), predicted that
                                                                                         value from ICT investment, deliver
                                             “over the next 20 years, the growth
                                                                                         better services and support a more
                                             in percentage terms of data flowing
                                                                                         flexible workforce.(90)
                                             through grid communications
                                             networks will far exceed the growth
                                             of electricity flowing through the
                                             grid”.(86) They went on to highlight
                                             that future advances such as the use
                                             of renewables and the requirement
                                             for real-time control would depend
                                             on both the data collection and
                                             communications network.

                                                                                                                                17
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