Energy in Japan -A Brighter Tomorrow?- Hisanori Nei Professor, National Graduate Institute For Policy Studies, Japan - National Association of ...

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Energy in Japan -A Brighter Tomorrow?- Hisanori Nei Professor, National Graduate Institute For Policy Studies, Japan - National Association of ...
Energy in Japan
 -A Brighter Tomorrow?-

                               Hisanori Nei

                                  Professor,
                 National Graduate Institute
                   For Policy Studies, Japan

                               2015.2.17 JASP
Energy in Japan -A Brighter Tomorrow?- Hisanori Nei Professor, National Graduate Institute For Policy Studies, Japan - National Association of ...
1.The Accident of Fukushima Daiichi
2.Change of Nuclear Regulatory System
3. Energy In Japan
4.Electricity System Reform
5.Nuclear
6.Conclusion
Energy in Japan -A Brighter Tomorrow?- Hisanori Nei Professor, National Graduate Institute For Policy Studies, Japan - National Association of ...
1,The Accident at Fukushima Dai-ichi NPS

• The accident at Fukushima Dai-ichi NPS was caused by long
  lasting complete power loss due to common cause failure
  (CCF) of electrical equipment following tsunami, and
  insufficient provision against severe accident.
• It is rated at INES Level 7, and people where lived in the
  specific area including those within 20 km radius from the
  site are still not able to return home.

            The moment when tsunami attacked Fukushima Dai-ichi NPS (source: TEPCO)
                                                                                      3
Energy in Japan -A Brighter Tomorrow?- Hisanori Nei Professor, National Graduate Institute For Policy Studies, Japan - National Association of ...
Assumed Height and Actual Height of                                               〔Onagawa NPS〕             Not flooded
                                                                                                                           Actual
                                                                                                                                          Assumed         (unit: m)
 Tsunami in Each NPS                                                                                      Sea Water        height of
                                                                                                                                          height of
                                                                                       Building           Pump             tsunami
                                                                                                                                          tsunami
                                                                                                                              13
                                                                                        Site
                                                                                        Level 14.8                                           13.6
                                                                                                                                                      Point of normal
                                                                                                                                    3.5               water level
         震度       5 境界線
         The boundary of the                                       女川原子力
         seismic intensity of 5                                    Onagawa NPS                                                                         Sea water Level
                                                                      発電所 〔Fukushima Dai-ichi NPS〕                          Destructive flood          In front of NPS
                                                                                                     D/G on a basement submerged.

                                                                                                                            13

                                                                           震央
                                                                           Epicenter
                                                                                                  10                                          6.1
                                                                                                                                 4                    Onahama
                                                                                                                                                      Port
                                                            福島第一
                                                            Fukushima              〔Fukushima Dai-ni NPS〕                 Sea water pumps flooded. Damage of
                                                            Dai-ichi NPS                                                  buildings were slight.
                                                             発電所
                                                           福島第二
                                                           Fukushima                                                            9
                                                           Dai-ni NPS
                                                              発電所
                                                                                                  12
                                                                                                                                             5.2
                                                         東海第二                                                                    4                    Onahama
                                                         Tokai Dai-ni                                                                                 Port
                                                           発電所
                                                         NPS
                                                                                   〔Tokai Dai-ni NPS〕          Sea water pumps did not flood due
                                                                                                               to breakwater wall
                                                                                                        breakwater wall

                                            JMA 1st report during the
                                                                                                                                       4.6
Seismic                                            気象庁(第1報)
                                            main shock                                             8                                         5.7
intensity         5- 5+ 6- 6+                                                                                                       3.3
 Reference: JMA “Tohoku District-Off the Pacific Coast Earthquake in 2011(1st                                                                        Tokyo Bay
                                                                                                                                                                         4
   Report),” http;//www.jma.go.jp/jma/index.html, partially modified by JNES
Energy in Japan -A Brighter Tomorrow?- Hisanori Nei Professor, National Graduate Institute For Policy Studies, Japan - National Association of ...
Progression of Accident (Outline of Accident Progression Common to Units 1-3)

       Automatic reactor shutdown due to
       earthquake, loss of off-site power supply                                    Soaking depletion of battery, depletion of compressed
                                                                                    air, etc.
                    Dependency on emergency power was                                           Many on-site works were necessary due to difficulty of
                    inevitable.                                                                 measurement / control / communication.

       ●Emergency diesel generator started up and                                   Shutdown of core cooling system
        power supply was secured.
       ●Reactor was cooled by core cooling system.                                              Unit 1 has lost its function at an early phase. Due to
                                                                                                this reason, there was only short time to address the
                    Start-up / Shutdown operations for IC・RCIC                                  situation.
                    were going on.                                                  Fuels were exposed and melt down while cooling was
                                                                                    not conducted.
       Most of electric systems including emergency
       diesel generators and switchboards were                                                  Serious degradation of confinement led to the release
       unavailable due to tsunami.                                                              of radioactive materials into environment.
   (Only one of emergency air cooling DGs in Unit 6 maintained its function)
                                                                                    Water injection from fire protection system (Alternative
                    Cooling sea water pumps installed along the                     water injection)
                    coast were also unavailable. (Loss of ultimate
                    heat sink)                                                                   The exposure time of fuels is considered to be prolonged
                                                                                                 due to insufficient reactor depressurization (reactor
                                                                                                 depressurization operation for containment, reactor
                                                                                                 containment depressurization [vent]) to the pressure
       Station Blackout                                                                          lower than the fire extinguishing pump head.

     (On March 13, Unit 5 received power supply from Unit 6 on emergency basis. )
                                                                                    Hydrogen generated through zirconium – water reaction.
                  Motor operated pumps etc. were unavailable.                       Explosions that seemed to be hydrogen explosion occurred
                  (Emergency cooling was carried out by
                  emergency condenser IC in Unit 1, reactor                         in reactor buildings at Units 1, 3 and 4. (Pressure in the
                  core isolation cooling system [RCIC] in Unit 2,                   pressure suppression chamber in Unit 2 dropped
                  and RCIC and high pressure core injection                         simultaneously with the Unit 4 explosion.)
                  system HPCI in Unit 3.)
                                                                                                 The explosions deteriorated work performance in
                                                                                                  the surrounding areas.
                                                                                                 Water leakage from containments / buildings were
                                                                                                  observed.
                                                                                                                                                            5
Energy in Japan -A Brighter Tomorrow?- Hisanori Nei Professor, National Graduate Institute For Policy Studies, Japan - National Association of ...
Max. Acceleration Values Observed in Reactor Buildings of each Unit

                                              Record                    Max. response
     Loc. of seismometer                                              acceleration to the
       (bottom floor of                 Max. acceleration            design basis ground
         reactor bld.)                       (Gal※2)                  motion Ss (Gal※2)
                                      NS        EW        UD         NS        EW    UD
                       Unit 1        460※1     447※1     258※1       487       489   412
                       Unit 2        348※1     550※1     302※1       441       438   420
  Fukushima            Unit 3        322※1     507※1     231※1       449       441   429
   Dai-ichi            Unit 4        281※1     319※1     200※1       447       445   422
                       Unit 5        311※1     548※1     256※1       452       452   427
                       Unit 6        298※1     444※1      244        445       448   415
※1:Each recording was interrupted at around 130-150(s) from recording start time
※2:1Gal=0.01m/s2 , 981Gal=1G

                                                                                            6
Energy in Japan -A Brighter Tomorrow?- Hisanori Nei Professor, National Graduate Institute For Policy Studies, Japan - National Association of ...
Impact of Tsunami on On-site Power Supply and Cooling Systems

                       Unit 1                Unit 2               Unit 3                 Unit 4                Unit 5               Unit 6

                                                                                                                                     △
                                              ×                                           ×                                   6A: R/B basement
  Emergency             ×                     2A                    ×                     4A                    ×              6B: DG building
   Diesel             1A, 1B            (T/B basement)            3A, 3B            (T/B basement)            5A, 5B                 1F
  Generator       (T/B basement)              2B              (T/B basement)              4B              (T/B basement)           (Usable)
                                      (Common pool 1F)                             (Common pool 1F)                              HPCS: R/B
                                                                                                                                  basement
 high-voltage                                                       ×                                           ×
                         ×                   ×                                            ×                                           △
    switch                                                    T/B basement,                               T/B basement,
                       T/B 1F         T/B basement, etc.                          T/B basement, etc.                           R/B 2F basement
    boards                                                         etc.                                        etc.
                                                                    ×                                                                △
 Power center            ×                    △                                           △                     △
                                                              T/B basement,                                                   R/B 2F basement,
    (note)           T/B 1F etc.          T/B 1F etc.                                 T/B 1F, etc.          T/B 2F, etc.
                                                                   etc.                                                             etc.
                         ×                                         ○                                           ○                     ○
  DC power                                   ×                                           ×
                   C/B basement,                              T/B mezzanine                               T/B mezzanine         T/B mezzanine
  (battery)                           C/B basement, etc.                          C/B basement, etc.
                        etc.                                    basement                                    basement              basement
  Emergency              △
                                                                    △
     core           However, IC               △
                                                              (RCIC and HPC                -                     -                     -
    cooling           required           (RCIC usable)
                                                                 usable)
  equipment          inspection

×: Unusable due to flooding or water damage △: Partially unusable ○: Usable T/B: Turbine building C/B: Control building R/B: Reactor building
(Note) Air circuit breaker (ACB), guard relay and peripheral equipment stored in a compact manner using a motive power panel that uses low-voltage
circuits within the plant

                                                                                                                                                     7
Energy in Japan -A Brighter Tomorrow?- Hisanori Nei Professor, National Graduate Institute For Policy Studies, Japan - National Association of ...
Impact on Loss of Function of Confinement Systems

• Radioactive material leakage presumably occurred when the
  pressure of the PCV was increased before the venting because the
  radioactive dose had increased after increasing of the pressure of
  the PCV of the Unit 1. Possible location of leakage was top flange,
  penetration of the containment vessel and/or equipment hatches.
• It is highly possible that the leakages were caused by deterioration
  of the organic sealing as a result of high temperatures by thermal
  radiation directly from the pressure vessel.
• When venting was conducted, the standby gas treatment systems
  (SGTS) was not properly isolated, thus hydrogen gas back flew into
  the reactor building. (in particular, Unit 4)

                                                                         8
Energy in Japan -A Brighter Tomorrow?- Hisanori Nei Professor, National Graduate Institute For Policy Studies, Japan - National Association of ...
Technical Knowledge acquired from the Accident

In order to address root causes in a practical manner, we
has closely investigated accident in the areas of:
  – External power supply systems
  – On-site power supply systems
  – Cooling systems
  – Confinement systems
  – Communication, instrumentation and control systems,
    and emergency response arrangements

                                                            9
Energy in Japan -A Brighter Tomorrow?- Hisanori Nei Professor, National Graduate Institute For Policy Studies, Japan - National Association of ...
NRC Members coming to Japan at the time of the Accident
2.Change of Nuclear Regulatory System
Reform of Nuclear Regulatory Organization
/Independence
  Separate the functions for nuclear regulation and nuclear promotion
  Establish the Nuclear Regulation Authority(NRA) as an independent commission body

Amendments to the Nuclear Regulation Act
/New regulation on severe accidents
/Regulation based on the state-of-the art information (backfiting)
/40-years operational limit for NPPs (exceptional less-than-20 years extension)

New Regulatory Requirement                       Principle of Regulation
/Strengthening of Design Basis                   /Place emphasis of Defense-in-Depth
/Severe Accident Measures                        /Eliminate common cause failure
/Enhanced Measures for Earthquake/Tsunami        /Protective measures against extreme
                                                 natural hazards
Strengthening of Design Basis

/Comprehensive consideration of natural hazards including volcano, tornado and
forest fire in addition to earthquake and tsunami, etc
/Reinforcement of fire protection measures

/Enhanced reliability of SSCs important to safety (e.g. Redundancy of piping)

/Reinforcement of off-site power supply (connection to different
substations through multiple lines)

/Protection of systems for Ultimate Heat Sink
Strengthen Requirement of Counter Measures for Severe Accident (SA)

 Prevention of Core Damage (ATWS, Loss of RCF・RDF・RCF・UHF etc.)

 Prevention of Containment Failure (CV spray, Filtered venting etc.)

 Prevention of hydrogen explosion at reactor building etc.

 Cooling at SFP

 Prevention of fuel damages during shutdown

 Emergency Response Center
Enhanced Measures for Earthquake/Tsunami
Tsunami
More Stringent                 /Define “Design Basis Tsunami” – Exceeds the
Standards on Tsunami           largest in the historical records

Enlarged Application of        /SSCs for Tsunami protective measures such
Higher Seismic Resistance      as Tsunami Gate are classified as Class S
                               equivalent to RPV etc.
Earthquake
                               /Active faults with activities later than the Late Pleistocene
More Stringent Criteria        be considered for seismic design
for active faults              /Active in the Middle Pleistocene be investigated if needed

More Precise methods to        /3D observation of geological structure on the site
define seismic ground motion
                                Class S buildings should not be constructed on the
Displacement and Deformation    exposure of active faults
3.Energy in Japan

After the Great East Japan Earthquake and the TEPCO’s Fukushima nuclear accident,
the circumstance of energy in Japan has changed drastically as follows:
/No NPS operation・・・288Gkwh(2010) Lost
/LNG import increase・・・73.3Mt(2010)            85.9Mt(2011),90.1Mt(2013)
/Energy Consumption Down・・15.0EJ(2010)            14.5EJ(2011),14.2(2013)
/Electricity Tariff Increase 20 to 30%
/Increase Fuel Cost・・・3.6Trillion Yen (30 billion US$)/year (2013)
LNG is major energy source cover the loss of NPS

Mt                           LNG Import by Country (Japan)                           Mt   Long Term     Import 2011     Import 2010
     90.0
                                                                             UAE                  4.3             5.6                  5.1
     80.0
                                                                             Burnei               6.0             6.2                  5.9
     70.0

     60.0                                                                    Malaysia            15.4            15.1                 14.6
     50.0                                                                    Indonesia            5.8             7.9                 12.9
     40.0                                                                    Quatar               6.0            14.3                  7.7
     30.0
                                                                             Oman                 3.0             4.2                  2.7
     20.0
                                                                             Australia           13.3            13.6                 13.2
     10.0
                                                                             Russia               4.9             7.8                  6.0
      0.0
            70 72 74 76 78 80 82 84 86 88 90 92 94 96 98 00 02 04 06 08 10
                                                                             U.S.A                                0.2                  0.6
               US                 Burnei             UAE
               Indonesia          Malaysia           Australia               Others                               9.0                  1.5
               Quatar             Oman               Equatorial Guinea
                                                                             Total               58.8            83.2                 70.6
               Russia             Others
Diversification of Energy Supply after Oil Crisis mainly by Nuclear
               Primary Energy Supply in Japan
25000
    PJ
                                                                          Primary Energy Supply in Japan
                                                              100%

20000                                                         90%

                                                              80%

                                                              70%
15000

                                                              60%

                                                              50%
10000
                                                              40%

                                                              30%

 5000
                                                              20%

                                                              10%

    0                                                          0%
                                                                 2009          2010            2011              2012       2013

                                                                        Coal     Oil   Gas   Renewable   Hydro    Nuclear
             Coal   Oil   Gas   Renewable   Hydro   Nuclear
Increase Nuclear Energy Supply for last 4 Decades
                     Primary Energy Supply in Japan
                                                                                                  Primary Energy Supply in Japan
                                                                              100%
350
                                                                              90%

300                                                                           80%

                                                                              70%
250
                                                                              60%
200
                                                                              50%

150                                                                           40%

                                                                              30%
100
                                                                              20%
50
                                                                              10%

 0                                                                             0%
      1972 1975 1977 1980 1982 1986 1989 1990 1992 1996 1999 2000 2005           1972 1975 1977 1980 1982 1986 1989 1990 1992 1996 1999 2000 2005

                                                                                     Oil   Coal   Natural Gas   Nuclear   Hydro   Geothermal   Renewable
       Oil    Coal   Natural Gas   Nuclear   Hydro   Geothermal   Renewable
After Fukushima, Energy Figure in Japan goes back to almost 4 decades ago
PRIMARY ENERGY SUPPLY IN 1990              PRIMARY ENERGY SUPPLY IN 2010
         Nuclear                                     Nuclear
                                 Coal                  11%
     Hydro 9%                                                                     Coal
                                 17%             Hydro
       4%                                                                         23%
Renewable                                         3%
                                           Renewable
   3%                                         4%
  Gas
  11%
                                              Gas
                                              19%

                            Oil                                                Oil
                           56%                                                40%

PRIMARY ENERGY SUPPLY IN 2012               PRIMARY ENERGY SUPPLY IN 2013
                                                                 Nuclear
     Renewable Hydro Nuclear                         Renewable Hydro
                3%     1%                                       3% 1%
        4%                          Coal                4%
                                                                                     Coal
                                    23%                                              25%

  Gas                                          Gas
  25%                                          24%

                           Oil                                              Oil
                          44%                                              43%
Maintain High Energy Efficiency
                                                 Energy Efficiency
           0.9                                                                                                                                                                                Energy Efficiency Trend
           0.8                                                                                                                                                       1.600
           0.7                                                                                                                                                       1.400

           0.6                                                                                                                                                       1.200
toe/kUS$

                                                                                                                                                                     1.000

                                                                                                                                                          toe/kUS$
           0.5
                                                                                                                                                                     0.800
           0.4
                                                                                                                                                                     0.600
           0.3
                                                                                                                                                                     0.400
           0.2
                                                                                                                                                                     0.200
           0.1                                                                                                                                                       0.000

                                                                                                                                                                                    1990
                                                                                                                                                                                    1991
                                                                                                                                                                                    1992
                                                                                                                                                                                    1993
                                                                                                                                                                                    1994
                                                                                                                                                                                    1995
                                                                                                                                                                                    1996
                                                                                                                                                                                    1997
                                                                                                                                                                                    1998
                                                                                                                                                                                    1999
                                                                                                                                                                                    2000
                                                                                                                                                                                    2001
                                                                                                                                                                                    2002
                                                                                                                                                                                    2003
                                                                                                                                                                                    2004
                                                                                                                                                                                    2005
                                                                                                                                                                                    2006
                                                                                                                                                                                    2007
                                                                                                                                                                                    2008
                                                                                                                                                                                    2009
                                                                                                                                                                                    2010
                                                                                                                                                                                    2011
            0

                                                                                                                                                                                 Japan      World        OECD     Russia            China          India

                 Souce:IEA                                                                                                                                                                          Energy Efficiency Trend
                                                                                                                                                                                0.300
                    EJ                                  Energy Demand & GDP                                                                  TYen
                                                                                                                                                                                0.250
                   18.00                                                                                                                        600
                   16.00                                                                                                                                                        0.200

                                                                                                                                                                     toe/kUS$
                                                                                                                                                500
                   14.00
                                                                                                                                                                                0.150
                   12.00                                                                                                                        400
                   10.00                                                                                                                                                        0.100
                                                                                                                                                300
                    8.00
                                                                                                                                                                                0.050
                    6.00                                                                                                                        200
                    4.00                                                                                                                                                        0.000
                                                                                                                                                100

                                                                                                                                                                                         1990
                                                                                                                                                                                         1991
                                                                                                                                                                                         1992
                                                                                                                                                                                         1993
                                                                                                                                                                                         1994
                                                                                                                                                                                         1995
                                                                                                                                                                                         1996
                                                                                                                                                                                         1997
                                                                                                                                                                                         1998
                                                                                                                                                                                         1999
                                                                                                                                                                                         2000
                                                                                                                                                                                         2001
                                                                                                                                                                                         2002
                                                                                                                                                                                         2003
                                                                                                                                                                                         2004
                                                                                                                                                                                         2005
                                                                                                                                                                                         2006
                                                                                                                                                                                         2007
                                                                                                                                                                                         2008
                                                                                                                                                                                         2009
                                                                                                                                                                                         2010
                                                                                                                                                                                         2011
                    2.00
                    0.00                                                                                                                        0
                                                                                                                                                                                    Japan   US        Germany   UK         France           EU27       OECD
                            1965
                                   1968
                                          1971
                                                 1974
                                                        1977
                                                               1980
                                                                      1983
                                                                             1986
                                                                                    1989
                                                                                            1992
                                                                                                   1995
                                                                                                          1998
                                                                                                                 2001
                                                                                                                        2004
                                                                                                                               2007
                                                                                                                                      2010

                           Industry                     Residencial                        Business                     Transport                   GDP
Decline of Coal consumption in 2011,2012 links with Total energy demand.
                        Changes of Power Supply Sources in Japan

                                                                        NaturalGas

                                                                       Coal

                                                                       OIl

                                                                      Hydro
                                                                   Nuclear
                                                                       Renewable
4.History of Electricity System Reform in Japan
 No competition in the electricity market before 1995.
 10 vertically integrated GEUs(General Electricity Utilities) dominated and controlled the market

1995
・Open the IPP (Independent Power Producer) market
2000
・Introduce partial retail competition (>2000kw)
・Accounting separation of Transmission/Distribution sector
2005
・Expand retail competition(>50kw)
・Establish the whole sale power exchange(JEPX)
(2008)
・Modify the rule of wheeling rates
Current electricity system
・Partial liberalization : retail competition for over 50kw        Negative aspects of regional monopoly were revealed
customers                                                         by 3.11
・Retail players : 10 big GEUs(vertically integrated, regional     1.Lack of system to transmit electricity beyond
monopoly), PPS, etc                                               regions.
・Situation is…                                                    2.Little competition and strong price control
   ・Share of non-GEU power producer and supplier : 3.6%           3. Limit in digesting the change in energy mix (cf.
   ・0.6% of the total retail market sales is transacted at JEPX   renewables)
Decision on Electricity System Reform in 2013

・The Cabinet decided to execute the Policy on Electricity System Reform on April 2, 2013

Objectives:
/Securing the stable supply
/Suppressing electricity rates to the maximum extent possible
/Expanding choices for consumers and business opportunities

Process:
A bold reform will be steadily carried out step by step focusing on the 3 agendas:
/Cross-regional Coordination of Transmission Operators(by 2015)
/Full Retail Competition in around 2016 (regulated tariff expired by 2020)
/Unbundle the transmission/distribution sector by 2020
5.Nuclear Power Plants in Japan                      Tomari

                                                                                                   BWR
                                                                                Higashidori
                                                                                                   PWR
                                   Tsuruga
                                             Kashiwazaki-Kariwa
                                                                                                   NRA
                         Mihama                                                 Onagawa
         Takahama                                                                                  40years
                                                  Shika
                                                                               Fukushima-Daiichi   Decom.
        Ooi

                                                                               Fukushima-Daini
                             Shimane

                                                                            Tokai-Daini
         Genkai

                                                                  Hamaoka
                                                    Ikata
                    Sendai
Sendai2

                                                                                                                                                                                                                           Kashiwazaki
                                                                                                                                            Hamaoka2
                                                                                                                                                                                                                           kariwa1

                                                                                                                                                                                                                           Fukushima-
                                                                                                  Takahama1            Mihama3              Tokai-Daini Ooi2                                                    Sendai1                         Hamaoka3
                                                                                                                                                                                                                           Daini3

                                                                                                  Fukuhima-           Fukushima-            Fukushima- Fukushima-                           Fukushima-                                          Fukushima-
                                               Mihama1                                                      Takahama2                                                                                           Onagawa1 Takahama4                                  Tomari1
                                                                                                  Daiichi2            daiichi3              Daiichi4 Daiichi6                               Daini1                                              Daini4

                                                             Fukushima-                                                                     Fukushima-                                                          Fukushima-
  Tokai                                        Tsuruga1                 Mihama2                   Shimane1 Genkai1     Hamaoka1 Ikata1                 Ooi1                  Genkai2        Ikata2                         Takahama3            Tsuruga2            Shimane2
                                                             Daiichi1                                                                       Daiichi5                                                            Daini2

    1966           1967   1968          1969        1970         1971        1972        1973         1974      1975       1976      1977       1978           1979   1980        1981           1982    1983       1984        1985     1986       1987     1988       1989
      48             47     46            45          44           43          42          41           40        39         38        37         36             35     34          33             32      31         30          29       28         27       26         25

                                 Hamaoka4

                                 Kashiwazaki
                                             Ikata3
                                 kariwa3

Kashiwazaki                                    Kashiwazaki
            Ooi3                 Shika1                                             Genkai4                                                                                  Higashidori1
kariwa2                                        kariwa4

Kashiwazaki                                                             Kashiwazaki Kashiwazaki
            Tomari2              Ooi4          Genkai3       Onagawa2                                                                       Onagawa3                         Hamaoka5 Shika2                               Tomari3
kariwa5                                                                 kariwa6     kariwa7

    1990           1991   1992          1993        1994         1995        1996        1997         1998      1999       2000      2001       2002           2003   2004        2005           2006    2007       2008        2009     2010       2011     2012       2013
      24             23     22            21          20           19          18          17           16        15         14        13         12             11     10           9              8       7          6           5        4          3        2          1
Process of Resuming Nuclear Power Plant in Japan

             Reactor Installation           Construction              Tech-Spec         Construction
NRA
             Permission                     Approval                  Approval          Inspection

             Submit         Permit            Submit       Approve   Submit Approve         Approve

Licensee       Assessment of Change         Change of Construction     Change of        Operation
               in Reactor Installation      Plan                       Tech-Spec

                            Request      Approval

Local                      Safety Agreement
Government                 with Licensee
Poll for Nuclear                                (Necessity of NPS)
100%   1.8             1.2                          1.8                        1.3    1.3
                       2.4                          2.6
       3.8
                       4.6                          1.5
       3.4                                                                     13.1   13.7
90%
                                                   16.7
                      19.9
80%    23.1                                                                    12.1   10.9

70%

                                                   28.3
60%
                      31.4                                                     35.9   38.1
       30.3
50%

40%

30%
                                                                               22
                                                   49.1                               23.4
20%                   40.5
       37.7

10%
                                                                               15.7
                                                                                      12.6

 0%
       2007           Yes
                       2008 Probably Yes   Yes or NO2010Probably No   No   Others
                                                                               2011   2012
Nuclear Capacity
NPS total Capacity at the Accident 48.96Mkw              48.96
Fukushima-Daiich 4.696Mkw Decommission Process           44.264
                                                         39.864
Fukushima-Daini 4.4Mkw Too Difficult to resume
Tsuruga Unit2 1.16Mkw Fault line Issue                   38.704
5 first generation NPS difficult to fit 40years rule     36.488 Max
(Tsuruga1, Mihama 1,2, Shimane1, Genkai1) 2.216Mkw
Twenty NPS submit TA report to NRA 20.10Mkw
                                                 Hamaoka Longer Construction 1.137Mkw
Sendai Unit1, 2 Approved by NRA 1.78Mkw
                                                 Simane, Onagawa,Ikata Midst of the Review 2.535Mkw
Takahama Unit3, 4 Just Approved 1.74Mkw
Ikata Unit 3   Close to finish soon   0.89Mkw    Kashiwazakikariwa, Tokai Daini Difficulty to get
Ooi Unit3,4    Close to finish soon   2.36Mkw    agreement with Local Government                3.812Mkw

Genkai Unit 3,4 Close to finish soon 2.36Mkw
Tomari,Higashidori,Shika Fault line issue 4.375Mkw
Not Submit Yet NPSs 18Unit 16.388Mkw

  Onagawa 1,3             1.349Mkw            Fault Issue only

  Kashiwazakikariwa 1-5 5.5Mkw                Unit2-4 never operated since 2007

  Hamaoka 3,5             2.48Mkw              Longer Construction

  Takahama 1,2            1.652Mkw              Challenge 40years Qualify

  Mihama3, Ooi 1,2         3.176Mkw             Consider 40years challenge
  Shika1, Ikata 1,2 Genkai 2   2.231Mkw         40 years challenge soon , Already changed RV

New Plant

  Shimane Unit3       1.373Mkw      93.6%complete

  Ohma               1.383Mkw      37.6%complete    Submit to NRA
NPR Total Capacity in Japan                                                                                                     Utilization Rate of NPS in Japan
10kMW
                                                                                                                                       80
         6000
                                                                                                                                       70
         5000
                                                                                                                                       60
         4000
                                                                                                                                       50
         3000
                                                                                                                                       40
         2000
                                                                                                                                       30
         1000
                                                                                                                                       20
           0
                                                                                                                                       10
                1966
                       1969
                              1972
                                     1975
                                            1978
                                                   1981
                                                          1984
                                                                 1987
                                                                        1990
                                                                               1993
                                                                                      1996
                                                                                             1999
                                                                                                    2002
                                                                                                           2005
                                                                                                                  2008
                                                                                                                         2011
                                                                                                                                2014
                                                                                                                                        0
                                              GCR         BWR           PWR                                                                     2003   2004   2005    2006   2007   2008   2009   2010   2011   2012

                       NPS Capacity under 40years Rule                                                                                                               Capacity 40 year Challenge Case
                           for Submited NPSs Only                                                                                      4000

  2000                                                                                                                                 3500
  1800
                                                                                                                                       3000
  1600
  1400                                                                                                                                 2500
  1200
                                                                                                                                       2000
  1000
   800                                                                                                                                 1500
   600
                                                                                                                                       1000
   400
   200                                                                                                                                 500
     0
                                                                                                                                            0
          2014
          2015
          2016
          2017
          2018
          2019
          2020
          2021
          2022
          2023
          2024
          2025
          2026
          2027
          2028
          2029
          2030
          2031
          2032
          2033
          2034
          2035
          2036
          2037

                                                                                                                                                2014
                                                                                                                                                2015
                                                                                                                                                2016
                                                                                                                                                2017
                                                                                                                                                2018
                                                                                                                                                2019
                                                                                                                                                2020
                                                                                                                                                2021
                                                                                                                                                2022
                                                                                                                                                2023
                                                                                                                                                2024
                                                                                                                                                2025
                                                                                                                                                2026
                                                                                                                                                2027
                                                                                                                                                2028
                                                                                                                                                2029
                                                                                                                                                2030
                                                                                                                                                2031
                                                                                                                                                2032
                                                                                                                                                2033
                                                                                                                                                2034
                                                                                                                                                2035
                                                                                                                                                2036
                                                                                                                                                2037
Conclusion
[Issues to be discussed]
/How many NPS resume
/ Appropriate Size and Level of Tariff in FIT for Renewable
/How to improve energy efficiency
/Power System Reform
/Gas System Reform
/Global Warming Issues related with the Usage of Coal
/Political Turmoil in MENA
0
                                                                                                                                                   40
                                                                                                                                                          60
                                                                                                                                                                  80
                                                                                                                                                                           100
                                                                                                                                                                                                140
                                                                                                                                                                                                                            160

                                                                                                                                           20
                                                                                                                                                                                       120
                                                                                                                      Apr-1983

               32500
               33500
               34000
               34500
               35000
               35500
               36000
               36500
               37500

               33000
               37000
                                                                                                                      Aug-1984
                                                                                                                      Dec-1985
                                                                                                                      Apr-1987
                                                                                                                      Aug-1988
                                                                                                                      Dec-1989
                                                                                                                      Apr-1991
                                                                                                                      Aug-1992

        2009
                                                                                                                      Dec-1993

OPEC
                                                                                                                      Apr-1995
                                                                                                                      Aug-1996
                                                                                                                      Dec-1997

        2010
                                                                                                                                                                                                                                     WTI

                                                                                                                      Apr-1999

Iran
                                                                                                                      Aug-2000
                                                                                                                      Dec-2001

        2011
                                                                                                                      Apr-2003

Iraq
                                                                                                                      Aug-2004
                                                                                 Political Turmoin in MENA            Dec-2005
                                                                                                                      Apr-2007

        2012
                                                                                                                      Aug-2008

Libya
                                                                                                                      Dec-2009
                                                                                                                      Apr-2011
                                                                                                                      Aug-2012

        2013
                                                                                                                      Dec-2013

               0
                   500
                         1000
                                1500
                                       2000
                                              2500
                                                     3000
                                                            3500
                                                                   4000
                                                                          4500
                                                                                                                               0
                                                                                                                                   20
                                                                                                                                                  60
                                                                                                                                                        80
                                                                                                                                                                100
                                                                                                                                                                         120
                                                                                                                                                                                 140
                                                                                                                                                                                        160

                                                                                                                                           40

                                                                                                                     1997.11
                                                                                                                     1998.07
                                                                                                                     1999.03
                                                                                                                     1999.11
                                                                                                                     2000.07
                                                                                                                     2001.03
                                                                                                                     2001.11
                                                                                                                     2002.07
                                                                                                             Dubai

                                                                                                                     2003.03
                                                                                                                     2003.11
                                                                                                                     2004.07
                                                                                                                     2005.03
                                                                                                                     2005.11
                                                                                                             Brent

                                                                                                                     2006.07
                                                                                                                     2007.03
                                                                                                                     2007.11
                                                                                                                     2008.07
                                                                                                             WTI

                                                                                                                     2009.03
                                                                                                                     2009.11
                                                                                                                     2010.07
                                                                                                                     2011.03
                                                                                                                                                                                                 Crude Oil Price & Import by China

                                                                                                             China

                                                                                                                     2011.11
                                                                                                                     2012.07
                                                                                                                     2013.03
                                                                                                                     2013.11
                                                                                                                               0
                                                                                                                                    5000
                                                                                                                                                10000
                                                                                                                                                        15000
                                                                                                                                                                               25000
                                                                                                                                                                                        30000

                                                                                                                                                                 20000
2003/5~8
Order of the Administrator of the Coalition Provisional Authority
De-Baathification of Iraqi Society
May 16, 2003
On April 16, 2003 the Coalition Provisional Authority disestablished the Baath Party of Iraq. This order implements that declaration by
eliminating the party’s structures and removing its leadership from positions of authority and responsibility in Iraqi society. By this means, the
Coalition Provisional Authority will ensure that representative government in Iraq is not threatened by Baathist elements returning to power
and that those in positions of authority in the future are acceptable to the people of Iraq.
Full members of the Baath Party holding the ranks of ‘Udw Qutriyya (Regional Command Member), ‘Udw Far‘ (Branch Member), ‘Udw Shu’bah
(Section Member), and ‘Udw Firqah (Group Member) (together, “Senior Party Members”) are hereby removed from their positions and
banned from future employment in the public sector. These Senior Party Members shall be evaluated for criminal conduct or threat to the
security of the Coalition. Those suspected of criminal conduct shall be investigated and, if deemed a threat to security or a flight risk, detained
or placed under house arrest.
Individuals holding positions in the top three layers of management in every national government ministry, affiliated corporations and other
government institutions (e.g., universities and hospitals) shall be interviewed for possible affiliation with the Baath Party, and subject to
investigation for criminal conduct and risk to security. Any such persons determined to be full members of the Baath Party shall be removed
from their employment. This includes those holding the more junior ranks of ‘Udw (
rse information. the same manner upon ppropriate, detained, interned placed under house arrest,Member) and ‘Udw ‘Amil (Active Member), as well as
those determined to be Senior Party Members.

Displays in government buildings or public spaces of the image or likeness of Saddam Hussein or other readily identifiable members of the
former regime or of symbols of the Baath Party or the former regime are hereby prohibited.
Rewards shall be made available for information leading to the capture of senior members of the Baath party and individuals complicit in the
crimes of the former regime.
The Administrator of the Coalition Provisional Authority or his designees may grant exceptions to the above guidance on a case-by-case basis.
By order of:
L. Paul Bremer, III
Administrator, Coalition Provisional Authority
________________________
CPA
      • Military Civil
      • Cooperation with Iraqi Officials
      • Too many personal changes
Cooperation with Executives

  2003 at Bagdad   2013 at Tokyo

                                   2015 at Tokyo
6.Conclusion(Cont.)

/Japanese Government has not determined the quantitative target of
energy supply by sources yet.
/It will be published after the Unified Local Election in the spring of 2015.
/The share of nuclear would be put between 15 to 25 % of power supply .
/It could be possible to achieve but it takes at least 4 to 5 years.
/It reduce tentative demand for LNG to some extent but the loss of power
demand would be compensate by increase demand in the field of
cogeneration.
/LNG should compete with Coal by any means.
/FIT system for renewable energy will be redesigned soon and electricity
market reform will be conducted by 2020.
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