Evaluation 102: How Evaluations Impact 2019 Energy Efficiency Planning - Mark A. Kravatz
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Evaluation 102:
How Evaluations Impact
2019 Energy Efficiency Planning
Mark A. Kravatz Carrie A. Gill, Ph.D.
EERMC Consultant Team Office of Energy Resources
kravatz@optenergy.com Carrie.Gill@energy.ri.gov
The Evaluation Team
Rhode Island Evaluation Team Independent Evaluation
Oversight Team Companies
Rachel Henschel Mark Kravatz Carrie Gill
Evaluation and Policy Lead C-team Evaluation Lead OER Evaluation Lead
National Grid Optimal Energy OER
Ralph Prahl
Romilee Emerick Nationally-recognized evaluation expert
National Grid Prahl Consulting
Erin Crafts Glenn Reed
National Grid Energy Futures Group
Dave Jacobson
Consultant for National Grid George Lawrence
Jacobson Energy Research Optimal Energy
Stefan Nagy
Courtney Lane
Kevin Rose Plus other subject matter experts as needed
2018 Planned Evaluations
52 studies total
16 RI Studies + Leveraging Results from 36 MA Studies
15 C&I Studies 22 Res/Income-Eligible 15 Cross-Cutting
$2.3M budget
2% total budget
$27.5M value
from leveraging 37 Impact Evaluations 4 Process 11 Market
MA studies
Continuous Oversight
RI Evaluation Team
reviews every single line
of Consultant Team’s
evaluation tracking
spreadsheet
at least
once per month
Evaluation Process
RI Evaluation Team RI Evaluation Team and RI Evaluation Team
identifies Independent Evaluator reviews interim
evaluation needs refine scope of work deliverables and
and workplan provides feedback
RI Evaluation Team Findings
RI Evaluation Team RI Evaluation Team
develops research incorporated into
provides input on reviews final
question and Energy Efficiency
all instruments reports
scope for RFP Annual Plan and
Benefit-Cost Model
Final RI reports filed
with PUC and posted
on EERMC’s website
National Grid Independent Evaluator
Independent
issues RFP incorporates feedback,
Evaluator
and selects collects data, conducts
incorporates
evaluator analysis, provides
feedback
interim deliverables
Evaluation Process
RI Evaluation Team
reviews interim
deliverables and
provides feedback
Findings
RI Evaluation Team
incorporated into
reviews final
Energy Efficiency
reports
Annual Plan and
Benefit-Cost Model
Final RI reports filed
with PUC and posted
on EERMC’s website
Independent
Evaluator
incorporates
feedback
Intersection of Evaluations and Planning
RI Evaluation Team Independent
RI Evaluation Team
reviews interim Evaluator
reviews final
deliverables and incorporates
reports for RI
provides feedback feedback
evaluations
Intersection of Evaluations and Planning
1st DRAFT
RI Evaluation Team ANNUAL PLAN
RI Evaluation Team FINAL DRAFT
comprehensive based on all
develops tool to ANNUAL PLAN
review of all MA available up to date Technical Reference based on revised
track impacted
studies to evaluations Manual (TRM)
measures TRM and BC Model
understand which updated & Benefit-
relate to RI Cost (BC) Model re-
run with updated
values
June Aug Oct
RI Evaluation Team Independent
RI Evaluation Team RI Evaluation Team Annual Plan,
reviews interim Evaluator
reviews final reviews final revised TRM filed
deliverables and incorporates
reports for RI results for relevant with PUC
provides feedback feedback
evaluations MA evaluations
Where do all the values come from?
Working
Backwards…
EERMC’s Cost-Effectiveness Report
Benefit-Cost (BC) Ratio: Invest if benefits are larger than costsBenefit-Cost (BC) Model: Aggregate Inputs Values aggregated from measure-level parameters
TRM: Custom HVAC Measure-level parameters are documented in TRM
TRM: Custom HVAC Measure-level parameters are documented in TRM
Evaluations
TRM is compilation of
studies vetted by RI
Evaluation TeamEvaluations Inform Plans
BC Model
Benefits
CostsWhat’s Happening Now?
Monitoring 99 RI + MA Studies
Will be
Adopting
Status (In- completed in Adopting Impact
Impact Factor
Sector Programs Study names Fuel(s) Type State progress or time for 2019 Notes Factor in 2019? Notes Resolved (Y/N)
in 2019?
Complete) Plan? (Y/N/TBD)
(Y/N/TBD)
(Y/N/TBD)
Residential Program Studies
Res All RI 2018 RASS and Schematic Floorplan Elec/Gas Market RI In-progress Yes No No numeric impacts to adopt. No Y
Res 1 - MA Residential Electric Load Shape and Baseline Study (Cooling and Heating
Res All Elec Loadshape MA Complete Yes Yes Will adopt updated MA loadshapes in 2019 planningYes Y
Season report)
Res HEHE RES 18 - Gas Condensing Boilers Losses and Savings Potential Gas Impact MA Complete Yes No No numeric impacts to adopt. No Y
Res HEHE RES 19 - DHW/Boiler/Furnace Incremental Costs Study Gas Incremental Cost MA Complete Yes Yes Will adopt study results to update costs Yes Y
Res IES SF RI Income Eligible Impact Evaluation Elec/Gas Impact RI In-progress Yes Yes Will adopt study results to update gross savings impacts
Yes for IES program in 2019 Plan. Draft in July and final report
Y in Aug. Likely
Res IES SF/IES MF RES 38 Income Eligible Process Evaluation Elec/Gas Process MA In-progress Yes No No numeric impacts to adopt. No Y
Res MF RES 44 Multi-Family Program Impact and Net-to-Gross Evaluation Elec/Gas Impact MA Complete Yes TBD Will look into current NTG No A bit complicated, but I'm OK with this. N
Res MF RES 42 MF Program Research Elec/Gas Process MA In-progress Yes No No numeric impacts to adopt. Final report in July No (No, it was process) Y
Res MF RES 43 Census of MA Multi-Family and Condo Properties Elec/Gas Market MA In-progress Yes No No numeric impacts to adopt. No Y
Res HVAC RES 29 MA Ductless Mini-Split Heat Pump Survey Elec Process MA Complete Yes TBD The study provided an updated EFLH used as the basisYesfor estimating heatings savings from mini-splits. We needN to confirm wh
Res HVAC RES 28 Ductless Mini-Split Heat Pump Incremental Cost Study Elec Incremental Cost MA Complete Yes Yes Will adopt study results to update costs Yes Y
Res HVAC RES 36 MA Heating and Cooling Early Retirement Net-to-Gross (NTG) Elec/Gas Impact MA In-progress Yes Yes Yes Y
Res HVAC Res HVAC Regular Replacement NTG study Elec Impact MA In-progress Yes Yes Yes Y
Res HEHE RES 17 - Connected Thermostats and Technology Literature Review Elec/Gas Market MA Complete Yes No No numeric impacts to adopt. No Y
Res HER Behavior 1 - Assessment of Behavior and Combined WiFi-T-Stat Program: Phase 1 Elec/Gas Impact/Process MA In-progress Yes No No numeric impacts to adopt. No Y
Behavior 2 - Understanding the Role of Weather on Air Conditioning Use Behavior and
Res Mulitple Elec Behavior MA In-progress Yes No No numeric impacts to adopt. No Y
Demand Response Program Participation
Res EW RI EnergyWise/HVAC HEAT Loan Assessment Elec/Gas Market RI In-progress Yes No No numeric impacts to adopt. No Y
Res HES Res 40 Moderate Income Market Characterization Survey Findings Elec/Gas Market MA Complete Yes No No numeric impacts to adopt. No Y
Res HES Res 35 Home Energy Services Process Evaluation Elec/Gas Process MA Complete Yes No No numeric impacts to adopt. No Y
Res HES RLPNC 18-5 HES Ltg NTG and EUL Elec Impact MA In-progress Yes TBD RI will review the final report when available TBD To form opinion I need to know a bit more aboutN how RI does
Res HES RLPNC 34 HES Impact Evaluation Elec/Gas Impact MA In-progress Yes TBD RI conducts own evaluation of EW due to differencesTBD in programI've
delivery.
got theRIsame
will review
take asthe
NGRID
report
as of
and
now
consider
N lessons learne
Res Res Lighting RI Lighting Onsite Saturation and NTG Elec Impact RI In-progress Yes Yes This study is assessing similarity in lighting market inYes
RI compared Could
to MAbebased
a bit messy
on dataintegrating
collected this
on-site/program
and MA Yres ltg
data
NTGinresult
RI an
Res Res Lighting RLPNC 17-9 On-Site Lighting Inventories and Optional Consumer Surveys Elec Impact/Market MA Complete Yes Yes Informs NTG/MAM Consensus that will be leveragedYes or directly used depending on the RI on site lighting study Y
Res Res Lighting RLPNC 17-11 LED NTG Consensus Process Elec Impact MA Complete Yes Yes Will be considered in the RI Lighting study Yes Y
Res Res Lighting RLPNC 17-6 2019-2021 Planning and 2017 Annual Report Market Adoption Models Elec Market MA Complete Yes Yes Will be used to update delta watts and EUL for 2019 planning
Yes Y
Res Res Lighting RLPNC 17-12 Lighting Decision Making Elec Market MA Complete Yes Yes Informs NTG/MAM Consensus that will be leveragedYes Y
Res Res Lighting 2017-18 Residential Lighting Market Assessment Study Elec Market MA Complete Yes Yes Informs NTG/MAM Consensus that will be leveragedYes Y
Res Res Lighting RLPNC 16-6 Web Scraping Results June 2016 – November 2017 Elec Impact MA Complete Yes Yes Informs NTG/MAM Consensus that will be leveragedYes Y
Res Res Lighting RLPNC 16-5/17-10 Sales Data Analysis and Modeling Elec Impact/Market MA Complete Yes Yes Informs NTG/MAM Consensus that will be leveragedYes Y
Res Res Lighting RLPNC 16-2 Lighting Supplier Interview and Store Manager Surveys Elec Impact/Market MA Complete Yes Yes Informs NTG/MAM Consensus that will be leveragedYes Y
Findings from relevant studies will be incorporated into planningWhat’s Happening Now?
Tracking Tool for Updating Parameters
El ectri c
Progra m El ectri c
Fuel Sector Progra m Type Mea s ure Ca tegory Mea s ure Type Mea s ure Sub Type kWh
Yea r kWh
s ourceID
Affecting Study Label Comments
RI-17-XX-AESCost updates entire Value table
RI-18_RX-LISF 2018 El ectri c Res i dentia l Pres cri ptive Appl i a nces Dehumi di fi ers Dehumi di fi er 239 S152
RI-18_RX-LISF 2018 El ectri c Res i dentia l Pres cri ptive Appl i a nces Freezers Freezer 484 S52
RI-18_RX-LISF 2018 El ectri c Res i dentia l Pres cri ptive Appl i a nces Recycl i ng Refri gera tor Recycl i ng 1180 S52
RI-18_RX-LISF 2018 El ectri c Res i dentia l Pres cri ptive Appl i a nces Refri gera tors Refri gera tor 384 S52
RI-18_RX-LISF 2018 El ectri c Res i dentia l Pres cri ptive Bui l di ng Shel l Ins ul a tion & Ai r s ea l i ng Wea theri za tion 1616 S52
RI-18_RX-LISF 2018 El ectri c Res i dentia l Pres cri ptive Bui l di ng Shel l Ins ul a tion & Ai r s ea l i ng Wea theri za tion 377 S52
RI-18_RX-LISF 2018 El ectri c Res i dentia l Pres cri ptive HVAC Cool i ng Wi ndow AC 100 S76
RI-18_RX-LISF 2018 El ectri c Res i dentia l Pres cri ptive HVAC Hea ting Effi ci ent Hea ting 132 S52
RI-18_RX-LISF 2018 El ectri c Res i dentia l Pres cri ptive Li ghting Interi or LED Screw Ba s e 38.7 S113
RI-18_RX-LISF 2018 El ectri c Res i dentia l Pres cri ptive Pl ug Loa d Sma rt Stri ps Sma rt Stri p
RI-18_RX-LISF 2018 El ectri c Res i dentia l Pres cri ptive Wa ter Hea ting Fl ow Control Fl ow Control Mea s ures
A sense for scale and detail…
(Other
Annual Annual Annual (Other
Energy Impacts ) Gros s Gas Non- Non- ImpFactor
InDemand BC Model Meas ure Hours Savings Electric Gas Heat Gas Heat Gas DHW Gas DHW Gas Other Gas Other Propane Propane Fos s il Fos s il Fos s il meas ure Impacts ) Winter Winter Off- Summer Summer Water / Water / Annual $ One time $ Gros s Gros s Gros s Net Pres criptiv KW kWh Percent Other One time One Time NEI
Program Meas ure Meas ure BCR Bas eline Savings Savings Hours Savings Program Electric Electric Electric kW Electric kW Gas Heat Gas DHW Gas Other Oi l MMBtu Oi l MMBtu Propane Refs . & meas ure meas ure ISR SPF RRe RRe RR s p RR wp RR wp kW CF s p CFwp Loads hap Water: Sewer: Annual $ One time $ NTG Meas ure Incentive FCM Look Illus trativ Evaluation heat Annual Per Annual Per Annual Per One time coincidenc s Las t Impact
Fuel Sector Program Type Meas ure Category Meas ure Type Meas ure Sub Type Program Program Meas ure Status Des criptio Unit Hours s ource equation kWh kW Factor Electric kW MMBtu MMBtu MMBtu MMBtu MMBtu MMBtu Oi l MMBtu MMBtu MMBtu Fuel (Type: Fuel (Type: Fuel (Type: life ISR ISR note SPF SPF note RRe Gas RRe note RR s p RR s p note RR wp kW Winter CF s p CF s p note CF wp CFwp note Peak Peak Peak Off-Peak Sewer Sewer Annual $ s ourceID / One time $ s ourceID / FR Sop Sonp NTG NTG note Meas ure Meas ure Meas ure meas ure Incentive e s avings Adjus tmen Adjus tmen Peak Savings Per MWh Per Therm Realizatio
Year Name 1 Name 2 Activity Des cript principle method SourceID Calc label Type kWh kWh note s ourceID note MMBtu MMBtu MMBtu s ourceID note MMBtu table(s ) life life note s ourceID s ourceID Electric s ourceID s ourceID s ourceID note Summer s ourceID s ourceID e note gallons gallons note note s ourceID TRC Unit Up e Savings approach Savings MWh NEI Therm NEI Oi l NEI Per Oi l NEI e demand Update vers ion
Name Name n note s ource s ourceID s ourceID note s ourceID note s ourceID note s ourceID note NG) Fuel Oi l) Propane) s ourceID Realizatio Energy % Energy % Energy % Energy % SourceID note des cript des cript TRC TRC unit TRC note benefit ($) (kW) t Factor t Factor Energy Factor NEI NEI n Rate
notes Realizatio s ourceID Factor factor Date
n Rate
Affecting Study Label Comments n Rate
RI-17-XX-AESCost updates entire Value table
RI-18_RX-LISF 2018 Electric Res idential Pres criptive Appliances Dehumidifiers Dehumidifier B03a Single Dehumidifier
Family
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EQ1 239 S152 0.041 S152 0 0 0 12 1.00 N56 1.00 N57 1 N19 1.000 N19 1 N19 0.85 S10 0 S28 0.02 0.03 0.59 0.36 0 0 3.22 S133 N68 2.39 S133 N68 0 0 0 1 N32 $ 50 per meas ure $ 50 per meas ure
B03a Single Family
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We are aware of which evaluations will impact planningWhat’s Happening Now?
Completing RI studies
Communicating insights from studies to program
implementers
Planning and budgeting for 2019 studies
Organizational tools and ongoing communication help the team know which
studies are needed in 20193 Key Things to Remember
1. The evaluation process is rigorous and there is adequate accountability and oversight.
2. Evaluations tell us about causal impacts of EE programs, which will effect how much of which
measures are included in future EE programs and how those programs are delivered.
3. Leveraging MA studies saves lots of money but timing is a logistical challenge during planning
process.
GOAL: Explain how evaluations inform program planning to peers and networks.
INVITATION: Ask about specific measures when you review the Annual Plan!
• Which measures changed the most between 2018 and 2019? Why?
• Were any of these changes surprising?
• Has delivery of measures changed? How?
• Which measures should we monitor for future programs?You can also read
