February 2019 - Greenvale AP

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February 2019 - Greenvale AP
February 2019
Food Trends
Through the eyes
of the shopper
February 2019 - Greenvale AP
Overview

                          Do you read foodie magazines, browse food related
                        websites and social media channels? If the answer
                      is yes then it won’t be long before you’ll come across
                    a new trend in food or a prediction to change our
                  eating habits. But how many of these predictions actually
                 manifest themselves into something that becomes part of
                our everyday repertoire and how many trends pass as a fad?

             With the help of over 400* UK shoppers, Greenvale explored
            2018 food trends alongside changes in grocery shopping
           and eating habits to find out just what might be next
          on our plates in 2019.

         And the aim of the research?...
        To discover just how potatoes may play a role in
       these new culinary times and remain “on trend”.

      As a business we want to ensure that we are
     able to react and respond to changing times.
    We want potatoes to succeed for all of our
    customers whilst delivering the needs of the
    modern shopper and consumer.

    Enjoy the read,

    Greenvale

                                     Data source: What’s Cooking Research Panel: December 2018.
2                                                                                                 3
February 2019 - Greenvale AP
Contents

    Reflecting on predicted 2018 food & drink trends  .  . 7
    The Rise of Meat Alternatives  .  .  .  .  .  .  .  .  .  .  .  .  .  .  .  .  .  .  .  .  .  . 8
    Sourcing & Ingredients .  .  .  .  .  .  .  .  .  .  .  .  .  .  .  .  .  .  .  .  .  .  .  .  .  .  .  .  . 9
    Health  .  .  .  .  .  .  .  .  .  .  .  .  .  .  .  .  .  .  .  .  .  .  .  .  .  .  .  .  .  .  .  .  .  .  .  .  .  .  .  .  .  .  .  . 10
    Drinks . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .  11
    The Rise of Technology  .  .  .  .  .  .  .  .  .  .  .  .  .  .  .  .  .  .  .  .  .  .  .  .  .  .  .  . 12
    Summary  .  .  .  .  .  .  .  .  .  .  .  .  .  .  .  .  .  .  .  .  .  .  .  .  .  .  .  .  .  .  .  .  .  .  .  .  .  .  .  .  . 12
    Potato Trends 2018 Market Dynamics  .  .  .  .  .  .  .  .  .  .  .  .  .  . 15
    Potato Trends 2018 Market Dynamics  .  .  .  .  .  .  .  .  .  .  .  .  .  .  . 16
    Potato trends . .  .  .  .  .  .  .  .  .  .  .  .  .  .  .  .  .  .  .  .  .  .  .  .  .  .  .  .  .  .  .  .  .  .  .  .  . 18
    2018 market dynamics  .  .  .  .  .  .  .  .  .  .  .  .  .  .  .  .  .  .  .  .  .  .  .  .  .  .  .  .  . 18
    Changes in… .  .  .  .  .  .  .  .  .  .  .  .  .  .  .  .  .  .  .  .  .  .  .  .  .  .  .  .  .  .  .  .  .  .  .  .  .  . 20
    The Changing Face of Grocery Shopping . .  .  .  .  .  .  .  .  .  .  . 21
    Online Shopping . .  .  .  .  .  .  .  .  .  .  .  .  .  .  .  .  .  .  .  .  .  .  .  .  .  .  .  .  .  .  .  .  .  . 23
    Eating Habits Changes over the past 12 months .  .  .  .  .  . 24
    Changing Cooking Habits  .  .  .  .  .  .  .  .  .  .  .  .  .  .  .  .  .  .  .  .  .  .  .  .  .  . 25
    What’s happening with potatoes? . .  .  .  .  .  .  .  .  .  .  .  .  .  .  .  .  .  . 26
    Opinions on the Fresh Potato Market? . .  .  .  .  .  .  .  .  .  .  .  .  .  . 28
    Category Predictions for 2019 .  .  .  .  .  .  .  .  .  .  .  .  .  .  .  .  .  .  .  .  .  . 29
    The Year Ahead for Food Trends  .  .  .  .  .  .  .  .  .  .  .  .  .  .  .  .  .  .  . 30

4                                                                                                                                                   5
February 2019 - Greenvale AP
Reflecting on predicted
                                    2018 food & drink trends

                                    2018 was predicted to be the year for challenger cuisines,
                                    additions to the likes of Indian, Mexican and Chinese dishes
                                    that adorn our repertoires on a regular basis. But how many
                                    people are now eating Hawaiian, South American or West
                                    African dishes?

                                                 Have predicted new meal cuisines
                                                     made an impact for you?

                                    100%                             100%                           100%

                                    90%                              90%                            90%

                                    80%                              80%                            80%

                                    70%                              70%                            70%

                                    60%                              60%                            60%

                                    50%                              50%                            50%

                                    40%                              40%                            40%

                                    30%                              30%                            30%

                                    20%                              20%                            20%

                                     10%                              10%

       So far
                                                                                                     10%

                                     0%                               0%                             0%

    none of the
    cuisines are                                      YES
                                           I have purchased/cooked
                                                                                    YES
                                                                            I have noticed a rise
                                                                                                                      YES
                                                                                                           I have purchased/cooked

     breaking                                                                   in popularity                  and noticed a rise
                                                                                                                 in popularity

      through                       100%                             100%                           100%

       quickly                      90%                              90%                            90%

                                    80%                              80%                            80%

                                    70%                              70%                            70%

                                    60%                              60%                            60%

                                    50%                              50%                            50%

                                    40%                              40%                            40%

                                    30%                              30%                            30%

                                    20%                              20%                            20%

                                     10%                              10%                            10%

                                     0%                               0%                             0%

    HAWAIIAN    SOUTH      WEST                      YES                            NO                            UNSURE
               AMERICAN   AFRICAN             I would like to try

    The cuisines are yet to make an impact on the eating habits of our consumers at a
    nationwide level. Restaurants offering these dishes are opening and are no doubt on
    the rise although they are mainly restricted to London and other major cities. Perhaps
    another year or two before the restaurant dishes are translated onto our plates at home?

6                                                                                                                                    7
February 2019 - Greenvale AP
The Rise of Meat                                                                                     Sourcing & Ingredients
                                   Alternatives

                         Current estimations state that there                                              So what else were we expected
                         are over 3.5 million vegetarians* in                                              to try in 2018?
                        the UK and according to the latest                                                                                                                                   No
                                                                                                           Well after the rise of “craft” and
                      research by the Vegan Society, there are
                                                                                                           “locally sourced” food and drinks
                     estimated to be around 540,000 vegans.
                                                                                                           (think craft butchery and craft
                   The UK market for meat-free foods was worth
                                                                                                           beer) butters were expected to
                 £572m in 2017**, up from £539m only two years earlier.
                                                                                                           make an impact, but did they?

    But what did our panel of researchers tell us?                                                         Craft butters were purchased
    Are they eating meat alternatives?                                                                     by only 5% of respondents
                                                                                                           with a further 10% noticing
    Yes…
               0%                                                        50%                        100%   a rise in popularity. 17% of                                    Did craft
                                                                                                                                            67% 17% 10% 5%        1%
                                                                                                           respondents would like to                                       make an
                          23%                     have been eating plant based proteins already            try craft butters.                                               impact?

                                                                                                                                                                  Uns
                                                                                                                                                                     ur
                                                                                                                                                             Ye

                                                                                                                                                                       e
                                                                                                                                                               s-
                       19%                have noticed a rise in popularity of meat free products
                                                                                                                                                                 ha

                                                                                                                                                                  I
                                                                                                                                                                    ve
                                                                                                                                                              s        pu

                                                                                                                                                             Ye
                                                                                                                                                                                                  ri

                                                                                                                                                                                                  ty
                                                                                                                                                                -I       rcha
                 10%            would like to try more meat free alternatives                                                                                      ha         sed this         ula
                                                                                                                                                                     ve                       p
                                                                                                                                                                        notic              po
                                                                                                                                                                              ed a rise in
                                                                                                                                                                    Iw
                                                                                                                                                                       ould                is
    The range of non meat foods available and media noise around the trend                                                                                                  like to try th
    continues to grow. We wanted
    to know if some of the
    less mainstream meat
    free products were       Only         of
                                                    No
                                                             3%                                            Hyper-local food, defined as grown,
    starting to make an       respondents                                                                  processed and consumed within a local
                            have eaten Heme                                                                community was expected to rise in
    impact too.
                                                  but a further
                                                                                                           popularity. 5% of our respondents claim to
    We asked “Have
    you heard of
                                                    12% have                                               participate in this trend whilst a further 11%,
                                                    heard of it                                            would like to try if products were available.
    Heme? It is an
    environmentally                                                                                        From further afield specialist ingredients
    sustainable                                                                                            were expected to enter the market and
    meat                                                                                                   one in particular the Timut pepper was
    alternative,                                                           Have you                        predicted to be a hit. It is a ‘spiky and
                                    71% 12% 12%         3%    2%
                                                                           heard of                        zesty’ pepper originating from Nepal, with
    that is plant
                                                                            Heme?
    based and                                                                                              a recommended use of sprinkling over a gin
                                                             Un
                                                        Yes

    used in                                                                                                and tonic, but was it a hit?
                                                               su

                                                                                                           For now only 2% of our
                                                                 re

    burgers. It
                                                            I      ha

    has the same                                                e                                          respondents have purchased
                                                                     v

                                                               ea
    appearance of                                          Ye     ten                                      the pepper with a further
                                                             sI       this
    a beef burger                                       Iw       ha                                        2% seeing the ingredient
                                                          ou       ve h                                    listed on menus in
    cooked rare.”                                            ld         eard of this
                                                                like                                       bars. Still work to do
                                                                     to try
                                                                            this                           with that one!

    *Source: Livekindly.co.uk. **Source: Mintel
8                                                                                                                                                                                                      9
February 2019 - Greenvale AP
Health                                                                                                       Drinks

                                                                                                                                                                                                                                    Watch out
                                                                                                                                                                                                                                      coffee,
                                                                                                                                                                                                                                    speciality
                              As reported by Public Health England (PHE), right now                             Two of the more popular trends from
                                                                                                                                                                                                                                       tea is
                             life expectancy in England is 79.6 years for men and                               2018 are drinks trends notably
                                                                                                                                                                                                                                     fighting
                            83.2 for women. The population is increasing and people                             specialist teas and “booze free”
                                                                                                                                                                                                                                       back!
                           are living longer. Society is changing and our health is                             beverages.
                          changing with it. PHE reports that overall the population is still
                       consuming too much saturated fat, added sugars and salt and                              64% of respondents have
                     not enough fruit, vegetables, oily fish and fibre.                                         purchased or noticed
                                                                                                                specialist teas with more
         Last year we were told to expect a rise of “Nootropics” defined as “health-                            mainstream tea brands

                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                n popularity
        conscious brain food” which includes turmeric, salmon, eggs and dandelion                               diversifying into this area. The                                                                Have you
                     greens but have these trends taken off? 11% of respondents                                 growth in popularity is also                                                                   purchased
                                                                                                                                                   31%            28% 17% 16%              7%      1%          or noticed
                                        purchase or eat this type of food and a                                 notably coming from young                                                                      specialist
                                            further 24% are aware of the term or                                people who are shunning the                                                                      teas?

                                                                                                                                                                                                Un

                                                                                                                                                                                                                                           ise i
                                               would like to try.                                               traditional cup of tea [Mintel].

                                                                                                                                                                                                  su

                                                                                                                                                                                                                                         ar
                                                                                                                                                                                                    re
                                                                                                                                                                                                     Iw
                                                                                                                The study found that fewer

                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                             rs
                                                                                                                                                                                                                                       ed

                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                         aile
                                                                                                                                                                                                       ld

                                                                                                                                                                                                       ou
                                                                                                                than one in six people aged 16                                                           lik

                                                                                                                                                                                                                                     ic
                                                                                                                                                                                                            et

                                                                                                                                                                                                                                   ot

                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                      ret
                                                                                                                                                                                                                o try                n
                                                                                                                to 34 drink five or more cups                                                                                     nd

                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                   in
                                                                                                                                                                                                         Ye                      a
                                                                                                                of standard black tea a day,                                                                s-I               ed
                                                                                                                                                                                                                  have purchas

                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                              ed
                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                            ic
                                                                                                                helping to contribute to a five per                                                     Yes

                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                          ot
                                                                                                                                                                                                             - I ha            d                               n
                                                                                                                                                                                                                   ve purchase                 e
                                                                                                                cent overall decline in tea sales.                                                                                           av
                                                                                                                                                                                                                            No             Ih
                                                                                                                                                                                                                                     s-
        We have also                                                                                                                                                                                                               Ye
        been expecting
        a rise of gut friendly food. This
        includes probiotics such as kimchi,
        miso and kefir and prebiotics such
                                                                                                                                                                     The drinks industry also appears to be winning
        as onions, garlic and other alliums.
                                                                                                                                                                     with booze free drinks with good awareness levels
        With the inclusion of onions and                                                                                                                             and 11% claiming to purchase non alcoholic drinks.
        garlic falling into this category
        it is already somewhat
        mainstream with 41% of                                                                                                                                                                                      Mocktails are surging
        respondents already                has there                                                                                                                                                                as alternatives for
        aware or purchasing.              been a rise                                                                                                                                                               mainstream soft drinks
                                                                                                                                                 noticed a

                                                                                                                                                                           popularity
                                                                                    4%   6%   17% 18% 18% 37%
                                             of gut                                                                                                rise or                                                          and as people look
                                               Yes -

                                            friendly                                                            47% 22% 11% 10% 8%    2%         purchased                                                          to reduce alcohol
                                             food?                                                                                                   non                                                            consumption. The number
                                                                                       e

          Expect
                                                                                     ur

                                                                                                                                                 alcoholic
                                                     I

                                                                                                                                                                                                               No
      more health                                                                                                                                                                                                   of adults drinking alcohol

                                                                                                                                     Un
                                                                                    e
                                                  ha

                                                                                   ns

                                                                                                                                                                          e in
                                                                                U                                                                 drinks?
                                                                                 lin

                                                                                                                                                                                                       ility
       trends to
                                                    ve

                                                                                                                                       su
                                                                                                                                                                                                                    is at its lowest level
                                                                               on

                                                     ur                            s/

                                                                                                                                                                       ris
                                                                                                                                         re
                                                           p

     feature in 2019

                                                                                                                                                                                                    lab
                                               Ye

                                                        ch                       es                                                                                                                                 since 2005, according

                                                                                                                                           Ye
                                                      -I

                                                                                                                                                                     ed
                                                           ase                  r                                                       -I
                                                 s

                                                               d and seen in p                                                                                        ic

                                                                                                                                             s

                                                                                                                                                                                                 vai
                                                    ha                                                                             w        ha
                                                                                                                                               ve                 n ot                                              to a survey released by
                                                       ve

                                                                                                                                 I

                                                                                                                                                                                               /a
                                                                                                                                    ou            purchased and
                                                          see                                                                                                                                                       the Office of National
                                                               n in press/online
                                                                                                                                       ld

                                                                                                                                                                                            ity
                                                                                                                              Y es         like

                                                                                                                                                                                          ar
                                                       Yes                                                                         -I           to tr                                                               Statistics in 2018. The

                                                                                                                                                                                        ul
                                                                                                                                      ha             y                            p
                                   N

                                                 Iw         - I ha              d                                                                                               po
                                                                   ve purchase                                                           ve
                                    o

                                                   ou                                                                                         purc                            n                                     future is looking good for
                                                      ld b                                                                                         hased                    ei
                                                           e inte              ing                                                                                    a  ris                                        this trend.
                                                                  rested in try                                                                    Yes - I have see
                                                                                                                                                                   n

        *Source: Livekindly.co.uk. **Source: Mintel
10                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                11
February 2019 - Greenvale AP
The Rise of Technology

                       Finally a trend that seems certain
                      to continue to capture the
                     imagination of the UK. 37%
                    of the population have
                  noticed a rise in popularity
                of technology linked to
             food preparation and cooking.
         Technology includes smart fridges
     that monitor food freshness and
     devices such as Alexa and Google
     Home which can be voice activated
     and used to create shopping lists are
     becoming more
     prevalent

                                    Summary

     The research and report captures just a
     snapshot of the predicted 2018 trends and
     shows that many are making their way into
     the lives of today’s shoppers. If they aren’t
     part of everyday life yet then many are
     making inroads.

     *Source: Livekindly.co.uk. **Source: Mintel
12                                                           13
February 2019 - Greenvale AP
Potato Trends
                                              2018 Market Dynamics

                                              Kantar Worldpanel data values the UK fresh potato
                                              retail market at £1bn. In the last year this value has
                                              decreased by 4% which was due to the level of
                                              deflation seen in the market place. The deflation
                                              was driven by the number of promotions seen in the
                                              first half of the year. As a result of cheaper potatoes,
                                              volume increased by 0.5%. In volume terms this
                                              added another 5,414 tonnes to the annual sale. The
                                              fresh retail potato market represents a staggering
                                              1.3m tonnes which is the largest produce volume
                                              category. Potato volume growth for the last year
                                              was ahead of produce, vegetables and fruit.

                                              Key shopper metrics:

                                         95.7

                                                                             oes
                                                                          tat
                                             %

                                                                        po
                                              of
                                                 he
                                                                        sh

                                                 t
                                                      po             fre
                                                        pula
                                                            tion buy

                                                                                   Th fr

                                                                                                           ar es
                                                                                       av

                                                                                                             as
                                                                                     e
                                                                                    es era                   h
                                                                                            g            u rc e
                                                                                      h                 p      y
                                                                                        po e shopper       sa
                                                       1.9
                                                                                          tato            e
                                                                                              es 26.8 tim
                                                        kg

                                      Th f

                                                                    tr kg
                                           a                    1.

                                        e

                                                                        9
                                       fr vera

                                                                      ip
                                          o
                                                              s
                                         es                 uy
                                           h p ge shopper b ping
                                              ota            p
                                                 toes per sho

     Data source: Kantar Worldpanel
14                                                                                                                 15
February 2019 - Greenvale AP
Potato Trends
                                 2018 Market Dynamics

                               Potato Sub Category Performance                    Tiering
                                                                                                                                                   dard 912,680
                                                                                                                                               Stan
                                                                                  Throughout grocery private
                            Maincrop                                              label tiers are growing with the
                   Volume has fallen with                                         premium market being up 9%
                 less promotions in the                                           and economy tier being up 5%.
                                                     4.1%
              market in the 2nd half of the                                       Produce sees very similar trends
                                                     YoY
           year due to supply.                                                    with economy and premium
     Trip volume has increased adding                                             outperforming standard. With
                                                                                  Potatoes premium tier has                                     Percentage
     £1.4m to the sub category.                                                                                                                   Potato
                                                     1.3%                         experienced the best volume         69%   18%   7%   6%
     Total market value £493m                                                     and spend gains, with new                                       Volume
                                                     YoY                                                                                         Sales by
                                                                                  shopper’s opting to purchase                                     Tier
     Total market volume 812k tonnes

                                                                                                                                   Pr
                                                                                  premium potatoes. Economy

                                                                                                                                    Br

                                                                                                                                     em
                                                                                  has also seen good volume                                   iu

                                                                                                                                      an
                                                                                                                                        ed       m
                                                                                                                                                   85,1

                                                                                                                                        d
                                                                                  and shopper growth with high                               85        43
                                                                                  deflation. Standard tiers have                               ,76
                                      Baking                                                                                                      5
                                                                                  experienced a volume decline.
                                       Baking is driving category volume                                                                       Eco
                                                                                  Branded has experienced a small                                 nomy 240,317
                                        growth through new shoppers and    4.1%   volume increase with an increase in
                                         an increase in trip volume.       YoY    purchase frequency but with shopper
                                         Total market value £238m                 losses.

                                         Total market volume 288k tonnes          Organics
                                                                           6%
                                                                           YoY    The total organic potato market has increased in volume
                                                                                  by 7% to 10,806 tonnes and up in value by 7.2% to
                                                                                  £12.4m in the last year. Prices have remained steady
                                                                                  with just a small increase by 0.2% to £1.15/kg. There has
                                                                                  been an increase in Organic shoppers with an uplift of
     New                                                                          11.7% in shopper penetration in the last year. Most of
                                                                                  the category growth has come from Asda, Aldi and
     Volume has grown slightly with
                                                                                  Waitrose. With Waitrose featuring promotions to
     new shoppers and an increase in                 2.1%                         increase shoppers and purchase frequency.
     trip volume. The lovely hot summer              YoY                          Whereas Asda and Aldi have increased
     helped drive sub category sales.
                                                                                  sales from a low base and expanded
     Total market value £279m                                                     their ranging whilst attracting
                                                                                  new shoppers.
     Total market volume 224k tonnes                 0.6%
                                                     YoY

     Data source: Kantar Worldpanel
16                                                                                                                                                                17
February 2019 - Greenvale AP
Potato trends
                                                          2018 market dynamics

                                                        Channels                                                                                                                                       Promotions
                               The Discounters continue to win in a climate of inflation.                                                                                                                                              Number of potato promotions
                              Shoppers are still visiting multiple retailers on the same day.                                                                                                                             0%                                                         50%                                      100%

                            19% of the time we visit a Big 4, we will visit a Discounter
                           on the same day. With potatoes there’s no surprise that                                                                                                                            2018                              201                                   82                                171
                        Discounters increased volume the most in the last year. It may
                    surprise you that Discounter deflation wasn’t too far behind the total
                                                                                                                                                                                                              2017                              245                                  108                                211
                market. Most of the growth has been from new store openings and an
              increase in shoppers. Online volume purchases increased too, aided by a
              growth in purchase frequency. Supermarkets managed to hold their own                                                                                                                            2016                              229                                  103                                219
              with no change in overall year on year volumes. Most of the volume decline
              has come from the Convenience channel.
                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                     Maincrop                    Baking                           New

                                                Percentage volume growth by channel
                                       -10%                      -5%                          0%                         5%                           10%
                                                                                                                                                                                                       There were a higher number of fresh potato promotions in the retail
                                                                              Supermarket
                                                                                                                                                                                                       market in 2017 vs 2018, the first half of 2018 featured the same amount of
                                                                                  -0.1%                                                                                                                promotions as the first 6 months in 2017. With supply easing this affected
                                                                                                                Online                                                                                 the number of promotions seen in the market place for the latter half of
                                                                                                                +2.5%                                                                                  2018. The most common promotions used are ‘save amount’ or ‘save %’
                                                                                                                              Discounter
                                                                                                                                                                                                       and represented 55% of promotions last year. This increased by 2% points
                                                                                                                                                                                                       from 2017.
                                                                                                                              +4.9%
                                        Convenience                                                                                                                                                    The number of premium tier and organic promotions increased last year as
                                              -7.9%                                                                                                                                                    you can see from this table:

                                                                                                                                                                                                                                       Number of potato promotions
              Retailer Performance                                                                                                                                                                                        0%                                                         50%                                      100%

              Tesco still holds the largest value                                                  highest value share gains in the                                                                           2018                              137                                                                     135
              and volume market share with                                                         last year. With an improved volume
              potatoes. In the last year Aldi has                                                  performance in the second half of
              experienced the highest volume                                                       this year they have increased their                                                                        2017                              133                                                                     70
              share gains. They have experienced                                                   shoppers, trip volume and purchase
              good shopper growth and have also                                                    frequency. Most of their growth
                                                                                                                                                                                                              2016                              121                                                                     78
              grown purchase frequency. Volume                                                     has been from Maincrop and New
              growth has been across all 3 sub                                                     potatoes.
              categories. Asda experienced the                                                                                                                                                                                                                Premium                      Organic

                                                                                    volume share of fresh potatoes

                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                   30       30
     Volume-Actual

                      Volume-Actual
      Retailer % of

                       Retailer % of

                                       25.6
                                            % 5.6%
                                              2                                                                                                                                                                                                                                             31    De3c18   Dec8
                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                  201      201
                                 26.6
                                      % 6.6%
                                        2                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                  Dec     Dec
                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                           2017    2017
                                                                     % 4.3%
                                                                 14.3   1                  12.9
                                                                                               % 2.9%
                                                                                                   1             12.9
                                                                                                                     % 2.9%
                                                         13.9
                                                             %
                                                                  13.9
                                                                      %                %         %                      1                                                                                             11.7% 11.7%
                                                                                  13.7      13.7        12.1%     12.1%                                                                     3.3%    3.3%          %        %
                                                                                                                                           4.3%    4.3%
                                                                                                                                                                   1.7%    1.7%                               10.7     10.7                   6.1%   6.1%             1.7%    1.7%
                                                                                                                                                            1.7%    1.7%             3.3%    3.3%                                      6.3%   6.3%             1.7%    1.7%
                                                                                                                                   4.5%     4.5%

                      Total Total                     Total Total             Total Total       Total Total     THE THE        Total Total                                        Total Total                                                               Total Total
                      TESCO TESCO                     ASDAASDA                SAINSBURY’S
                                                                                    SAINSBURY’S MORRISONS
                                                                                                      MORRISONS CO-OPERATIVE
                                                                                                                    CO-OPERATIVE
                                                                                                                               ICELAND
                                                                                                                                     ICELAND                                      WAITROSE
                                                                                                                                                                                        WAITROSE           ALDI ALDI                LIDL LIDL               MARKS MARKS
                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                    & SPENCER
                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                         & SPENCER

              Data source: Kantar Worldpanel                                                                                                                                                Data source: Brandview
18                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                   19
Changes in…                               The Changing Face
                                               of Grocery Shopping

                                               Whilst it is important to understand how UK shoppers are
                                               reacting and being influenced by food and drink trends it
                                               is also important to understand how shopping habits have
                                               changed too. We started by investigating how people are
                                               currently shopping.
                                               35% of respondents do a big
                                               shop once per week and a
                                               further 17% a big shop every
                                               couple of weeks. Approximately
                                               1/3rd of people top up shop
                                               during the week.
                                                                                                I bu
                                                                                                    yg
                                                                                                      ro

                                                                ce
                                                                  ries
                                                                       every day o
                                                                                                       How often

                                                                        I do a regul
                                                                                                                             7% 10% 17% 31% 35%
                                                                                                         do you

                                                                           I top up
                                                                                                         shop?

                                                                               I do

                                                                                                                         s
                                                                                    rf
                                                                                    ab

                                                                                                                       ay
                                                                                            rt

                                                                                     ar b
                                                                                     sho
                                                                                                               fd

                                                                                      o
                                                                                              he

                                                                                        ig
                                                                                        Id       next ouple o

                                                                                          p d kly
                                                                                          ig
                                                                                                                  in

                                                                                                                           g
                                                                                                      c

                                                                                           sh
                                                                                          o                     pp
                                                                                             on

                                                                                             we

                                                                                             op
                                                                                                              o

                                                                                              u
                                                                                     ab        line          h
                                                                                                    grocery s

                                                                                               rin s
                                                                                       ou

                                                                                                 e
                                                                                  th

                                                                                                  g
                                                                                          t o
                                                                              ho e w          nce
                                                                                                  every 2 week
                                                                                                                s
                                                                                p     ee
                                                                                         k

                                               We wanted to understand how these shopping habits
                                               have changed over the past 12 months. For the majority of
                                               shoppers habits have remained the same however there is a
                                               move to more frequent top up and online shopping. There is a
                                               double digit decline for the big weekly shop.

                                                                                   I do this more        I do this about     I don’t      I have
                                                                                       frequently              the same      do this   stopped
                                                                                           than 12         amount as 12                   doing
                                                                                     months ago             months ago                       this

                   I do a regular big weekly shop                                                7%                61%         21%          11%

                   I do a big shop about once every 2 weeks                                      7%                31%         56%          6%

                   I do a big shop roughly once a month                                          4%               22%          66%          8%

                   I top up shop during the week                                               24%                64%          10%          2%

                   I buy groceries every day or for the next couple of days                    10%                28%          56%          6%

                   I do more online grocery shopping than a year ago                            12%                31%         49%          8%

20                                                                                                                                                  21
Online Shopping

                     We wanted to find out which stores were more or less                                  Whilst many respondents are happy to shop around and look for
                     popular with shoppers versus 12 months ago and asked                                  bargains, we’ve also reported the rise of online grocery shopping.
                    our respondents to tell us where they had been visiting.
                  In line with Kantar data showing discounters gaining market                              Shopping for groceries online
                share, shoppers themselves also see that they are visiting stores                          Probably no surprises that Tesco has come out on top but despite
             in this sector more frequently too. 14% of respondents stated that                            only being able to deliver to some London and South East
         they were visiting Tesco more frequently but this was effectively                                 postcodes, Amazon Fresh is already making its presence felt in
     cancelled out by 15% that felt they were shopping less at the store.                                  the online grocery world.

                       I visit more   I visit less    I visit about   I rarely visit   I don’t visit                       Where have you shopped online for
                                                      the same as
                                                     amount as 12                                                           groceries in the past 12 months?
                                                      months ago                                                       0            50            100            150            200

       Aldi                  19%             6%              31%              17%            27%
                                                                                                              Tesco
       Lidl                  15%             9%              32%              16%            28%

       Tesco                 14%            15%              49%              13%              8%        Sainsbury’s

       Sainsbuy’s            13%            12%              41%              21%             13%
                                                                                                               Asda
       Co-Op                 10%           10%               32%             23%             25%

       Asda                  10%            15%              38%              16%             21%           Iceland

       Morrison’s            10%           10%               35%             22%             23%
                                                                                                          Morrisons
                                                                                                                                                          Amazon
       M&S                     8%          10%               36%             23%             22%
                                                                                                                                                         Fresh one
       Waitrose               6%             7%              24%              13%            49%
                                                                                                             Ocado                                        for the
                                                                                                                                                          others
                                                                                                                                                         to watch
                                                                                                       Amazon Fresh
                                                                                                                                                          closely
     No surprises why the changes are taking place, shoppers are savvy and
     looking for the best in terms of offers and prices.
                                                                                                           Waitrose

22                                                                                                                                                                                    23
Eating Habits Changes                                                 Changing Cooking Habits
                             over the past 12 months

                             As a nation we are increasingly                                       Consumer cooking trends have evolved, with convenience becoming of
                             being made aware that we should be                                    greater importance. According to IGD, time spent preparing evening meals
                             striving for a healthier diet. But are the                            has decreased from 60 minutes in 1980 to 30 minutes in 2016. Consumers
                             messages getting through? Well yes.                                   are leaning towards quick and easy, pre-prepared ingredients and meals
                             In the past 12 months our respondents                                 requiring less preparation time. Information from our own research told us:
                             have particularly focussed on reducing
                             their intakes of sugar, fat, carbohydrate                                      Time spent preparing and cooking
                             and processed foods.                                                               the main meal of the day
                                                                                                                      0%   5%   10%     15%   20%    25%   30%   35%   40%
                                                                                                                                                                             35%
                                                                                                                                                                              45%

                                                                                                                                                                        Spend up to
                                                                                                                                                                                    50%

                                        Strongly    Agree     Neither     Disagree   Strongly     Less than 10 mins
                                          Agree             Agree nor                Disagree
                                                                                                                                                                         35 minutes
                                                             Disagree                                                                                                   cooking the
                                                                                                       10 - 20 mins
                                                                                                                                                                         main meal
                                                                                                                                                                         of the day
     I eat less meat                        9%       19%        25%          27%        21%

                                                                                                       20 - 30 mins
     I have become Vegetarian               3%        3%        13%          26%        55%
                                                                                                                                                                             A further

                                                                                                                                                                             35%
     I have become Vegan                    2%        3%         11%         24%        61%
                                                                                                      30 - 40 mins

     I am a Pescatarian                     3%        4%        15%          23%        55%                                                                                Dedicate
                                                                                                      40 - 50 mins                                                      30-40 minutes
     I don’t consume dairy                  2%        3%        12%          26%        57%                                                                             of cooking &
                                                                                                                                                    The final

                                                                                                                                                    35%
                                                                                                                                                                         preparation
     I don’t eat gluten                     5%        4%        12%          25%        54%                                                                                  time
                                                                                                      50 - 60 mins

     I have reduced my sugar intake        14%      28%         24%          14%        20%                                                          Spending
                                                                                                                                                    more than
                                                                                                   more than 1 hour
     I have reduced my fat intake           8%      25%         25%          21%        20%                                                         40 minutes

     I have reduced my
                                            7%       17%        28%          22%        26%
     carbohydrate intake

                                                                                                  77%
                                                                                                                           38% of respondents are cooking multiple main
     I am eating less                                                                                                      meals to accommodate, children, school
                                           13%       27%        28%          16%        17%
     processed food
                                                                                                Of respondents             commitments and work commitments.
     Other please specify                   3%        5%        56%           11%       26%
                                                                                                enjoy cooking
                                                                                                   or enjoy                When it comes to that helping hand in
                                                                                                    cooking                the kitchen convenience products can be
                                                                                                  immensely                appealing to our consumers.

                                                                                                                                      At least once per week

                                                                                                           27%
                                                                                                          Spend more
                                                                                                                                      60% use prepared vegetables
                                                                                                         time cooking                 72% use a prepared carbohydrate
                                                                                                            at the
                                                                                                           weekends                   65% use a chilled or frozen potato product

24                                                                                                                                                                                        25
What’s happening
                                  with potatoes?

                               We asked our respondents about their fresh potato                          And frozen potato consumption?
                               eating habits over the past 12 months and whether they
                                                                                                          There have been some reported gains in consumption of frozen potatoes but these are
                              thought their consumption had changed.
                                                                                                          outweighed by the declines and a high number of respondents that don’t eat frozen
                    Approximately 2/3rd                       growth over a 52 week period for            potato products.
                  of respondents are                          the baking potato sector*. Whilst
               eating “about” the same                        respondents report some growth in            Frozen Potatoes                            I’ve been    I’ve been      I’ve    I don’t
                                                                                                                                                   eating more        eating   eaten     eat this
           amount of potatoes as they                         frequency of consumption across                                                                     about the      less
      were a year ago with double digit                       all formats, overall consumption                                                                         same
     growth being suggested for baking                        declines have outweighed the gains.          Baked                                           3%          26%       6%        66%
     potato consumption. This figure                          Much more work is still to be done
     is consistent with Kantar market                         in promoting fresh potatoes.                 Mashed                                          2%         20%        6%        72%
     data that is showing 6.0% volume
                                                                                                           Chips                                           5%          54%      18%        23%
       Fresh Potatoes                                       I’ve been    I’ve been      I’ve    I don’t
                                                         eating more        eating   eaten     eat this    Wedges                                          3%          36%      15%        47%
                                                                        about the      less
                                                                             same
                                                                                                           Roasts                                          4%          33%      12%         51%
       Baked                                                    10%          69%      15%          6%

       Mashed                                                    7%          67%      17%          9%

       Chips                                                     5%          54%      24%         17%

       Wedges                                                    3%          46%      21%        29%
                                                                                                                        The
       Roasts                                                    9%          66%      17%          8%
                                                                                                                     Overall
                                                                                                                     winner...
       Boiled or Steamed                                         9%          69%      12%         10%               It has got
                                                                                                                       to be
     Have there been major gains in the chilled prepared                                                           fresh baked
     potato sector?                                                                                                  potatoes
     Well the answer is no. Respondents are eating a small amount more of
     chilled prepared potatoes but the majority don’t buy into this sector at all.

       Chilled Prepared Potatoes                            I’ve been    I’ve been      I’ve    I don’t
                                                         eating more        eating   eaten     eat this
                                                                        about the      less
                                                                             same

       Baked                                                      1%         25%       8%        66%

       Mashed                                                    2%          22%      10%        66%

       Chips                                                     2%          26%      10%        62%

       Wedges                                                    2%          22%       9%        67%

       Roasts                                                    2%          21%       8%        69%

       Boiled or Steamed                                         2%          21%       8%        69%

     Data source: Kantar data 52 weeks ending 30.12.18
26
Opinions on the Fresh                                              Category Predictions
                  Potato Market?                                                     for 2019

              And in the next 12 months do                                           The Shopper
              respondents have an opinion on                                         Shopper confidence appears to be holding up
              developments that they would like                                      despite Brexit uncertainty. Our panel voted
              to see in the fresh potato sector?                                     confidently by 74% that they haven’t cut back on
                                                                                     their household spend in recent months. Shoppers
                                                                                     do however expect food prices to increase with 64%
                                                                                     showing concern over this. There will be an increased
                                                                                     focus on price ahead of quality. With less use of

      71%
                                                                                     promotional tactics there will be a need to create
                                                                                     a personalised and differentiated proposition to
      Potatoes                                                                       engage diverse shopper missions.
      packed in
     paper bags
                         59%
                         More loose
                                                                                     Potatoes and Retailers
                                                                                     Due to supply, volume sales will be under pressure
                          potatoes                                                   so there will be a small reduction in volume which
                                                                                     will be from maincrop. With new potatoes we are
                                                                                     hoping for another warm summer to match sales
                                                                                     seen in 2018. With baking potatoes we are currently

                                             48%
                                             New recipes
                                                                                     seeing strong volume growth which will start to ease
                                                                                     but sales will remain in growth by the end of the
                                                                                     year. Overall the volume prediction will be for a small

         32%
                                              and ideas                              reduction in volume not more than 1% with inflation
                                                                                     so this will drive value up by 1% to 2%.
       Mixed packs of
       fresh potatoes                                                                With consumers being more mindful of the
         e.g. baking,                                                                environment and ethically aware there will be
         main crop                                                                   further growth from organics of 5%. Premium
           & baby                                                                    sales growth will continue, as it presents a great
                                                                                     opportunity to drive incremental sales and
                                                                                     trade consumers up. Our prediction is for 3%
                                                                                     volume growth for this year.
                                                                                     Discounters will continue to increase
                                                                                     their market share through new

                                40%                                                  store openings. The convenience

           37%
                                                                                     and online channels offer a great
                                Quick cook
                                                                                     opportunity to expand ranges to
                                 formats
        Healthy recipe                                                               meet the changing needs of time
        kits featuring                                                               poor shoppers. Supermarkets
           potatoes                                                                  will continue to fight for volume
                                                                                     growth and may experience a
                                                                                     slight volume decrease of 0.5%.

                                                           Data source: IGD and Kantar Worldpanel
28                                                                                                                                             29
The Year Ahead
                                  for Food Trends

                                  As we move from 2018 to 2019, what are
                                  we being told to expect on our plates
                                  this year and do our shoppers like the
                                  sound of the next craze?
                                  Indulgent ice-creams took the top spot from 15
                                  predicted trends but potatoes featured joint 2nd and
                                  4th. Here’s to a successful 2019 for fresh potatoes.

                                                I will   I might try   I probably    I definitely       I’m not
                                           definitely                    won’t try     won’t try           that
                                                  try                                               interested

     1st   Indulgent Ice-cream desserts        24%            40%           10%            12%           14%

           West African food                    15%           35%           12%            23%           15%

     2nd   Hassleback potatoes                  19%           39%           20%             8%           20%

           Bitter Flavours                       6%            21%          26%           30%            17%

           Charred food                         10%           26%           16%           29%            20%

     4th   Loaded potato wedges                 13%           38%           14%            21%           14%

           Gold leaf desserts                    7%            21%          14%           36%            23%

           Clear foods and gels                  5%           18%           18%            32%           27%

           Chips and dipping sauces             13%           35%           12%           26%            14%

           Caviar                                7%            13%          14%           50%            15%

     2nd   New mushroom varieties              22%            36%             6%           23%           13%

           Octopus                               11%           15%          10%            51%           13%

           Seaweed                              15%            31%           9%           30%            15%

           Edible cocktails                      8%           25%            11%           37%           20%

           Peruvian food                        13%           34%             7%          30%            16%

30                                                                                                                31
BE INSPIRED
     watch our new potato inspiration video for 2019.
                Find out more by visiting:

greenvaleap           @greenvaleap             greenvaleap-ap

        www.greenvale.co.uk
              tracey.mattock@greenvale.co.uk
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