FRONT COVER - Tyne and Wear Fire and Rescue Service

 
FRONT COVER - Tyne and Wear Fire and Rescue Service
FRONT COVER
FRONT COVER - Tyne and Wear Fire and Rescue Service
Contents

Introduction ........................................................................... 3     Deprivation .......................................................................... 23
About Tyne and Wear ........................................................... 6                 Indices of Deprivation ........................................................ 23
Success in Reducing Risks ................................................. 7                     Unemployment .................................................................. 24
Population ............................................................................. 8        Worklessness .................................................................... 26
   A Growing and Ageing Population....................................... 9                       Health and Wellbeing ........................................................ 28
   Ethnicity............................................................................. 12      Alcohol Use ....................................................................... 29
   Main Language ................................................................. 12             Smoking............................................................................. 31
   Religion ............................................................................. 13      Drug Use ........................................................................... 33
Housing ............................................................................... 14        Mobility .............................................................................. 34
   Dwelling Stock ................................................................... 16          Obesity .............................................................................. 35
   Short Term Residence ...................................................... 17                 Mental Health .................................................................... 36
Growth and Development .................................................. 18                      Crime and Anti-social Behaviour ....................................... 37
   Domestic Properties .......................................................... 18           Road Traffic Collisions ....................................................... 41
   Non-Domestic Properties .................................................. 18               Environmental Risks ........................................................... 43
   Newcastle and Gateshead ................................................ 19                 Industrial Risks and Resilience ......................................... 48
   North Tyneside .................................................................. 20           COMAH Sites .................................................................... 48
   South Tyneside ................................................................. 21            Premises............................................................................ 48
   Sunderland ........................................................................ 22         Building Collapse ............................................................... 48
                                                                                               References ........................................................................... 49

 Community Risk Profile 2017 – 2020                                                                                                     Tyne and Wear Fire and Rescue Authority
                                                                                                                                                       Creating the Safest Community           2
FRONT COVER - Tyne and Wear Fire and Rescue Service
Introduction

This Community Risk Profile informs our Strategic Community            “Each Fire and Rescue Authority must produce an integrated risk
Safety Plan (SCSP) and Integrated Risk Management Plan                 management plan that identifies and assesses all foreseeable fire
(IRMP). It provides a comprehensive and forward looking                and rescue related risks that could affect its community, including
assessment of the risks in our community that will both impact         those of a cross border, multi authority or national nature. The plan
upon, and shape service delivery over the coming years.                must have regard to the community risk registers produced by
                                                                       Local Resilience Forums and any other local risk analyses as
This document is an overview assessment and analysis of                appropriate”.
community risk. It is underpinned by detailed data on incidents
and risks which are used in the targeting of our activities, both      The Community Risk Profile also takes account of information
strategically and day to day.                                          supplied by partners and external influences on our Service at the
                                                                       local and national level. It does not replicate the statutory, multi-
The Community Risk Profile and its underpinning data enable us         agency Community Risk Register managed by the Northumbria
to better understand the diverse nature of our community and           Local Resilience Forum.
identify, prioritise and plan for both current and foreseeable risk,
in accordance with the requirements of the Fire and Rescue
National Framework 2012, that states:

 Community Risk Profile 2017 – 2020                                                                 Tyne and Wear Fire and Rescue Authority
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FRONT COVER - Tyne and Wear Fire and Rescue Service
Managing Risk
We take a standard approach to understanding risk which is made         referenced with incident data to enable resources to be targeted
up of the likelihood that something could happen and the impact         for Prevention, Protection and Response.
it would have if it did happen. Our role as a fire and rescue service
is set out in legislation including the Fire and Rescue Services Act    It is important to note that community risk and incidents are not the
2004, the Civil Contingencies Act 2004, the Regulatory Reform           same thing. Community risk is inherent in the community and is
(Fire Safety) Order 2005 and the Fire and Rescue (Emergencies)          connected with the social factors in the population, including
                                                                        poverty / deprivation, age, health and lifestyle. Individuals at risk
(England) Order 2007.
                                                                        of harm from fire and other accidents are often also at risk of other
That role is essentially to mitigate the risk by:                       types of harm.

    reducing the likelihood that fires will happen (through the        We regard a fire or other incident where risk has not been
     Prevention and Protection activities that are part of our legal    mitigated we know both from our routine local analysis, and
     duty).                                                             national researchi that incidents are more likely to happen to some
                                                                        individuals and in some areas, than others.
    reducing the impact if incidents do happen. This is part of our
     duty to respond and provide resilience (extinguishing fires,       Our knowledge of the community includes historical and recent
     rescuing people in a variety of situations, and being able to      information about where incidents happen and to whom. We
     help the community if a major incident or disaster occurs). It
                                                                        routinely make use of data systems including Community Fire Risk
     also links to the Prevention and Protection duties through the
                                                                        Management Information System (CFRMIS) and demographic
     promotion of measures that make sure people get out if there
                                                                        profiling tools (e.g. MOSAIC), both of which provide information to
     is a fire, or prevent the ignition and the spread of fire
     (sprinklers, smoke alarms, fire doors, fire retardant materials    household / business level. Other systems record patterns and
     for vulnerable people and many others).                            frequency of incidents and allow us to model any proposed
                                                                        changes (e.g. Workload Modelling software).
When thinking about the likelihood of fire and other incidents, the
Community Risk Profile is important because it helps us to              This helps us to make the connections between the risk and the
understand the community. This understanding is cross                   incidents and to target the available resources at the greatest risk
                                                                        - whether this means the positioning of fire stations and

 Community Risk Profile 2017 – 2020                                                                  Tyne and Wear Fire and Rescue Authority
                                                                                                                  Creating the Safest Community   4
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appliances, or the targeting of our programmes of Home Safety
Checks (HSCs) or Risk Based Inspections (RBIP) of business
premises. Of course there will always be some fires and other
accidents and it is not possible to totally remove all risk of these.

Throughout this document we have set out some of the key risks.
Our approach to targeting these risks is also described. Policies
and procedures are in place dealing with the specifics of targeting
risk through Prevention (e.g. Home Safety Check targeting policy),
Protection (e.g. Risk Based Inspection Programme for fire safety)
and Response (e.g. Standard Operating Procedures and Pre-
Determined Attendances).

 Community Risk Profile 2017 – 2020                                     Tyne and Wear Fire and Rescue Authority
                                                                                     Creating the Safest Community   5
FRONT COVER - Tyne and Wear Fire and Rescue Service
About Tyne and Wear

Tyne and Wear is a densely populated metropolitan area with        Tyne and Wear has an international airport, two major cities,
1.104 million residents located in the North East of Englandii.    nearly 1.4 million m2 of retail floor space, five indoor shopping
Covering 538km2 it represents only 6% of the North East region’s   centres, three universities and a variety of specialist sporting
land, yet it is home to 43% of the region’s population with over   facilities hosting both domestic and international competitions and
500,000 households. The population is growing, ageing and          events. Tyne and Wear also has a number of high risk sites
changing, the impact of this is covered in more detail later.      registered under the Control of Major Accident Hazards (COMAH)
                                                                   regulations 1999.
Tyne and Wear consists of five local authority areas: Gateshead,
Newcastle, North Tyneside, South Tyneside and Sunderland. It       The industrial makeup of the area has changed from largely heavy
borders Northumberland County to the north and Durham County       industry to a more diverse economy including a number of major
to the south. Along with the other urban areas of Tees Valley,     enterprises such as the Nissan plant in Sunderland. The recession
these four county areas constitute the North East region of        has hit the North East harder than many areas and recovery is
England.                                                           slower.

Community Risk Profile 2017 – 2020                                                             Tyne and Wear Fire and Rescue Authority
                                                                                                            Creating the Safest Community   6
FRONT COVER - Tyne and Wear Fire and Rescue Service
Success in Reducing Risks

Our approach to managing risk has enabled Tyne and Wear Fire                       Percentage Change in Accidental Dwelling Fires
and Rescue Service (TWFRS), working with key partners, to drive                                  2009/10 - 2016/17
                                                                        20%
down risk and therefore reduce incidents, over a period of more than
8 years.                                                                10%

When we analyse our performance, we compare ourselves to the             0%

                                                                               Warwickshire
                                                                               Avon
                                                                               Durham
                                                                               Cleveland
                                                                               Lancashire
                                                                               Humberside
                                                                               Kent
                                                                               Isle Of Wight
                                                                               Cambridgeshire
                                                                               Merseyside
                                                                               Suffolk
                                                                               West Yorkshire
                                                                               Hampshire
                                                                               Derbyshire
                                                                               Tyne & Wear
                                                                               Royal Berkshire
                                                                               South Yorkshire
                                                                               Cornwall
                                                                               Northamptonshire
                                                                               Dorset
                                                                               Nottinghamshire
                                                                               Greater Manchester
                                                                               Bedfordshire
                                                                               Oxfordshire
                                                                               Greater London
                                                                               Devon & Somerset
                                                                               North Yorkshire
                                                                               Cheshire
                                                                               West Midlands
                                                                               Shropshire
                                                                               Hereford & Worcester
                                                                               Norfolk
                                                                               Leicestershire
                                                                               Staffordshire
                                                                               Buckinghamshire
                                                                               Lincolnshire
                                                                               Northumberland
                                                                               Hertfordshire
                                                                               East Sussex
                                                                               West Sussex
                                                                               Cumbria
                                                                               Essex
                                                                               Gloucestershire
                                                                               Isles Of Scilly
                                                                               Surrey
                                                                               Wiltshire
other Fire and Rescue Services (FRS) in our ‘family group’ as          -10%
categorised by Government. The group is more commonly referred
to as ‘the Mets’ and includes: Greater Manchester FRS, London          -20%

Fire Brigade, Merseyside FRS, South Yorkshire FRS, West                -30%
Yorkshire FRS and West Midlands FRS.
                                                                       -40%
The charts on this page illustrate how our risk based approach has
                                                                       -50%
helped reduce accidental fires in peoples’ homes and how the
number of all incidents has reduced across the Tyne and Wear area                All incidents attended by TWFRS 2009/10 - 2016/17
since 2009/10.
                                                                       20000
A full range of data on how we are performing is contained in our
Annual Report / Statement of Assurance.                                15000

                                                                       10000

                                                                        5000

                                                                           0
                                                                               2009/10 2010/11 2011/12 2012/13 2013/14 2014/15 2015/16 2016/17

                                                                                     Fires     False Alarms       Special Services        All Incidents

 Community Risk Profile 2017 – 2020                                                                   Tyne and Wear Fire and Rescue Authority
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Population

Population is a key risk factor for fire and rescue as reflected in the   Population Density (people per hectare)
current Government arrangements for funding fire and rescue
authorities (FRAs). Put simply, risk goes with people and the
number of people in an area is a key determinant of risk alongside
social factors in how the population is made up. As a Metropolitan
FRA covering five densely populated urban local authority areas,
population is a key consideration throughout our planning

Based on 2011 census data, the population of Tyne and Wear is
1.104 million with an average age of 40 years.

The relative density of Tyne and Wear’s population is shown in the
mapiii (circled area).

 Community Risk Profile 2017 – 2020                                                                 Tyne and Wear Fire and Rescue Authority
                                                                                                                 Creating the Safest Community   8
FRONT COVER - Tyne and Wear Fire and Rescue Service
The following chart shows the population of Tyne and Wear broken            In the decade between census 2001 and census 2011, the
down across the Local Authority areas:                                      population in Tyne and Wear showed an increase of 1.6% (17,300).

                    Local Authority Population, Census 2011                 The rate of population change in each constituent Local Authority
                                                                            was as follows:
300,000                       280,177                           275,506
                                                                                                                     Gateshead: +9,100 (+4.8%)
250,000
                                                                                                                     Newcastle: +12,900 (+4.8%)
              200,214                    200,801
200,000                                                                                                              North Tyneside: +9,200 (+4.8%)
150,000
                                                    148,127                                                          Sunderland: -9,300 (-3.3%)
                                                                                                                     South Tyneside: -4,600 (-3.0%)
100,000

 50,000                                                                                                                        Population by Local Authority Area and Age Group,
                                                                                                                                                 Census 2011
       0                                                                                                              90,000                                                               350,000
            Gateshead        Newcastle    North      South     Sunderland

                                                                               Population per age group by district

                                                                                                                                                                                                     Total population per age group
                                         Tyneside   Tyneside                                                          80,000
                                                                                                                                                                                           300,000
                                                                                                                      70,000
A Growing and Ageing Population                                                                                                                                                            250,000
                                                                                                                      60,000
                                                                                                                      50,000                                                               200,000
The age structure of the population within Tyne and Wear is set out
below:                                                                                                                40,000                                                               150,000

    0-14 years: 16.31%                                                                                               30,000
                                                                                                                                                                                           100,000
    15-24 years: 14.5%                                                                                               20,000
                                                                                                                                                                                           50,000
    25-44 years: 26.18%                                                                                              10,000
    45-64 years: 26.35%                                                                                                  0                                                                0
                                                                                                                                0-14   15-24   25-44    45-64       65-84       85+
    65-84 years: 14.53%
    85+ years: 2.13%                                                                                                      Gateshead            Newcastle                North Tyneside

Over 50% of the population are within the 25 to 64 age group and                                                           South Tyneside       Sunderland               Total per Age Group

those aged 65 and over make up over 16%.

 Community Risk Profile 2017 – 2020                                                                                                              Tyne and Wear Fire and Rescue Authority
                                                                                                                                                                Creating the Safest Community       9
FRONT COVER - Tyne and Wear Fire and Rescue Service
Regional projections indicate that this picture is set to change again                                 In terms of changes by age band, the projections for Tyne and Wear
by 2021 with Tyne and Wear’s total population rising to 1.160m, a                                      are as follows:
5.1% increase spread across all of the constituent local authorities.
This is lower than that in most other metropolitan areas (Greater                                      Under 25s: In 2021 the 0-14 age group is expected to remain at
Manchester 6.5%, West Midlands 7.6%, South Yorkshire 5.7%,                                             around 16% of the population total. The percentage share of the
                                                                                                       population relating to the 15-24 age group is expected to reduce
West Yorkshire 9.1%) other than Merseyside (0.8%).
                                                                                                       from 14.5% to 12.74%.
                 Total Population (000s): Tyne and Wear Authorities                                    25-44: The percentage share of the population in this group is
                        2001 - 2021 (projected), Census 2011
                                                                                                       expected to remain around 26%.
 350
                                        299

                                                                                                       45-64: The percentage share of the population in this group is

                                                                                     285

                                                                                                 284
                                  279

                                                                                           275
 300                                                                                                   expected to reduce from 26.4% to 24.8% by 2021.
                            266

 250                                                                                                   65 and over: The regional projectionsiv indicate that “the
                                                           216
                      207

                                                     201
                200

                                                                                                       percentage of the population aged 65 and over is projected to be
                                               192
          191

 200                                                                                                   one of the fastest growing among the regions”. The percentage
                                                                              154
                                                                 153
                                                                        148

                                                                                                       share of the population relating to the 65 and over age group is
 150
                                                                                                       expected to show an increase from 16.66% to 18.89% which is an
 100                                                                                                   increase of 19% from 2011 to 2021.

  50

   0
         Gateshead          Newcastle           North             South             Sunderland
                                               Tyneside          Tyneside

       2001 Population (000s)           2011 Population (000s)         2021 Population (000s)

 Community Risk Profile 2017 – 2020                                                                                                Tyne and Wear Fire and Rescue Authority
                                                                                                                                                Creating the Safest Community   10
There is a clear indication that Tyne and Wear like the country in                                 Accidental dwelling fire related fatalities
general, is encountering an ageing population. This is illustrated in                               by age group 01/04/2009 - 31/03/2017

the graph below which shows the percentage change in population                    10                                                                       9
based on mid-year population estimates from 2011v.                                  9
                                                                                    8
                                                                                    7                                                  6
                % Change in Population Estimates 2011 - 2021                        6
                               Census 2011                                          5
                                                                                    4
 45.0
                                                                                    3
 40.0                                                                               2                            1
 35.0                                                                               1        0
                                                                                    0
 30.0                                                                                       0-15               16-39                40-64                  65+
          23.6
 25.0                                        18.6   20.8
 20.0              22.7                                                                             Accidental dwelling fire related injuries
                           19.1                                          65+
 15.0     3.7                                              19.8   21.5
                                                                                                     by age group 01/04/2009 - 31/03/2017
                                      14.3   3.8    3.0                  16-64
 10.0
                            0.9                                          0-15     500
          12.6                               10.8   11.0                                                                                                   420
  5.0               7.9     7.3                                                   450
                                      6.0                  5.3    3.3
                                                                                                                387
  0.0                                                                             400                                                355
                   -0.7               -0.4                 -1.0                   350
                                                                  -1.7
 -5.0                                                                             300
                                                                                  250
                                                                                  200
                                                                                  150        94
                                                                                  100
                                                                                   50
                                                                                    0
Age is a risk factor for fire. The following charts show fire deaths                        0-15               16-39                40-64                  65+
and injuries in Tyne and Wear by age group. Our targeting and
delivery policies take account of this as described later in this                Since the largest percentage increase in population is in the 65 and
document. It is worth noting that our community is among the safest              over category, our policies, procedures and resource allocation will
in the country from fire deaths and injuriesvi.                                  need to be continually adapted to protect this vulnerable group.

 Community Risk Profile 2017 – 2020                                                                                   Tyne and Wear Fire and Rescue Authority
                                                                                                                                   Creating the Safest Community   11
Ethnicity                                                            Main Language

Comparison of the last two censuses show that the population of      In relation to language, the vast majority (95.9%) of residents aged
Tyne and Wear is becoming more ethnically diverse: in 2001 95.4%     3 or over use English as their main language. However, there are a
of the population declared themselves as White British whereas in    number of other languages spoken within Tyne and Wear which
2011 this figure was 91.5%.                                          largely correspond to the migration patterns experienced in each
                                                                     local area.
The breakdown of the population by local authority area is as
followsvii.                                                          The most commonly spoken languages as defined in the census
                                                                     2011 are shown belowviii.
                                           Black/   Mixed
                                Asian/   African/     and             Language                                   Speakers                       %
                   White White
 Council                         Asian Caribbean/ multiple   Other
                  British other
 Area                           British     Black   ethnic     (%)    English                                    1,021,903                95.9%
                      (%)   (%)
                                    (%)    British groups             Bengali                                        4,907                0.46%
                                               (%)     (%)
                                                                      All other Chinese
 Gateshead           94.1        2.2   1.9   0.5      0.8     0.5                                                       4,783             0.45%
                                                                      (exc: Mandarin, Cantonese)
 Newcastle           81.9        3.6   9.7   1.8      1.5     1.5
                                                                      Polish                                           3,715              0.35%
 North
                     95.1        1.5   1.9   0.4      0.9     0.2     Arabic                                           3,203              0.30%
 Tyneside
 South                                                                Urdu                                             2,111              0.20%
                     95.1        0.9   2.2   0.3      0.9     0.7     Persian/Farsi                                    1,776              0.17%
 Tyneside
 Sunderland          94.8        1.1   2.7   0.5      0.6     0.3     Panjabi                                          1,623              0.15%
                                                                      Tagalog/Filipino                                 1,237              0.12%
                                                                      French                                           1,231              0.12%
                                                                      All Other Languages                             19,642              1.84%

Community Risk Profile 2017 – 2020                                                                 Tyne and Wear Fire and Rescue Authority
                                                                                                                Creating the Safest Community   12
Religion
                                                                                      Religions of Tyne and Wear Residents, Census 2011
65% of the population across Tyne and Wear identified themselves
as Christian in the 2011 census. A further 24.9% stated that they
                                                                                               0%            20%        40%          60%           80%          100%
followed no religion, while 5.96% did not state a religious preference
on their census return.                                                           Christian                                                 65.00%

                                                                                 No religion                       24.90%
The religions followed by Tyne and Wear residents are shown on
the opposite chart.                                                      Religion not stated          5.96%

                                                                                    Muslim           2.50%

                                                                                     Hindu          0.45%

                                                                                    Jewish          0.35%

                                                                                   Buddhist         0.30%

                                                                                       Sikh         0.29%

                                                                             Other religions    0.24%

 Community Risk Profile 2017 – 2020                                                                                Tyne and Wear Fire and Rescue Authority
                                                                                                                                Creating the Safest Community   13
Housing

33.5% of homes within Tyne and Wear are one-person households,                  21.2% of all households within Tyne and Wear are aged 65 or over;
the majority of which fall into the ‘aged 50 and over’ category.                the percentage in Newcastle is somewhat lower than in other parts
                                                                                of Tyne and Wear.
When looking further into the composition of these households,
most are single females.                                                                       % of Households Aged 65 or over, 2011 Census

                  Male / Female split of one person households                   25
                                                                                                                                         22.8
                                                                                        21.9                              22.0                             21.6
 100%
                                                                                 20                     18.7
  90%
  80%
                                                                                 15
  70%
              67%             66%              70%        69%         70%
  60%
                                                                                 10
  50%
  40%
                                                                                  5
  30%
  20%
              33%             34%              30%        31%         30%         0
  10%                                                                                 Gateshead      Newcastle        North            South           Sunderland
  0%                                                                                                                 Tyneside         Tyneside
          Gateshead       Newcastle           North      South     Sunderland
                                                                                                        Local Authority          Tyne and Wear
                                             Tyneside   Tyneside

                                      Male     Female

40% of one-person households are aged 65 or over, 68% of which
are female.

Community Risk Profile 2017 – 2020                                                                                Tyne and Wear Fire and Rescue Authority
                                                                                                                                 Creating the Safest Community    14
It is expected that households in Tyne and Wear will increase by                     In terms of tenure, 41% of individuals rent their properties which is
14% by 2039ix and one-person households will continue to make up                     higher than the national average of 34.5%.
the greatest proportion.
                                                                                                                             Households by Tenure

                                                                                              Sunderland
                          Household Projections 2039

                                       9.6%                                               South Tyneside

                                                      34.6%                               North Tyneside
                             25.2%

                                                                                                Newcastle

                                6.3%

                                              24.3%                                            Gateshead

                                                                                                             0       20,000     40,000   60,000     80,000   100,000   120,000

     One person                                 Couple and no other adult                                                                  North        South
                                                                                                             Gateshead Newcastle                                   Sunderland
                                                                                                                                         Tyneside      Tyneside
     Couple and one or more other adult         Households with dependent children
                                                                                      Owned                      51,915       57,955      59,136        38,333         71,566
     Other                                                                            Shared Ownership            363          489          374           297           352
                                                                                      Social Rented              24,941       34,850      19,677        21,204         32,399
                                                                                      Private Rented             11,125       22,318      11,300         6,758         14,552
                                                                                      Living Rent Free *          810         1,541         808           575           889
                                                                                     * The owner is not asking for payment

Community Risk Profile 2017 – 2020                                                                                              Tyne and Wear Fire and Rescue Authority
                                                                                                                                             Creating the Safest Community      15
Dwelling Stock                                                                Household makeup, tenure and length of residence all have an
                                                                              influence on fire risk and is reflected in the incidents that occur. For
In April 2017 it was identified that Tyne and Wear is made up of              example, analysis of accidental dwelling fires for TWFRS during
512,100 dwellingsx. This is an increase of 2% (10,160) since 2011             2015/16 and 2016/17 indicates that such fires are more likely to
and is distributed as follows:                                                occur in rented accommodation (see following chart).

                          Local     Private        Other                                     Accidental Dwelling Fires by Ownership
                                                           Private
Council Area           Authority Registered       Public              Total                             2015/16 - 2016/17
                                                           Sector
                        Owned      Provider       Sector
                                                                                                                  2%
                                                                                                          7%                                    Housing
                                                                                                                                                Association
Tyne and Wear             78,370         59,590   1,400 372,740 512,100
                                                                                                                                                Other
  Gateshead               19,690          5,090     400    68,300    93,480                34%

  Newcastle               25,960          9,850   1,000    87,880 124,690                                                                       Owner
                                                                                                                       36%                      Occupied
  North
                          15,390          5,660       0    75,650    96,700
  Tyneside                                                                                                                                      Private
  South                                                                                                                                         Rented
                          17,340          4,760       0    49,020    71,120
  Tyneside
                                                                                                  21%                                           Social
  Sunderland                         0   34,240       0    91,880 126,110                                                                       Rented

Community Risk Profile 2017 – 2020                                                                             Tyne and Wear Fire and Rescue Authority
                                                                                                                             Creating the Safest Community    16
Short Term Residence

Population transience and short term residence are other
challenges we face in Tyne and Wear. The census only captures
short term residence where this relates to people born outside the
UK.

The census map opposite shows non-UK born residents per 10,000
usual residents for England and Wales broken down into local or
unitary authority districts. The numbers are particularly high in
Newcastle.

Another contributory factor in the transient population of the area is
the student population. Tyne and Wear has three universities – two
in Newcastle and one in Sunderland.

Student numbers for our universities were as follows in 2015/16xi.

 University                Postgraduate   Undergraduate      Total

 Newcastle                       6,070       17,720         23,790
 Northumbria                     4,750       22,415         27,165
 Sunderland                      2,425       10,575         13,000

It will be less likely that a Home Safety Check, along with the
accompanying fire safety in the home advice, will have taken place
in these types of premises.

 Community Risk Profile 2017 – 2020                                      Tyne and Wear Fire and Rescue Authority
                                                                                      Creating the Safest Community   17
Growth and Development

Along with population growth, the social and economic regeneration      Non-Domestic Properties
activities led by our local authority partners influence the changing
shape of the built environment and the makeup of different              New non-domestic premises are also imported automatically into
                                                                        CFRMIS. Depending on the use of the premises (and associated
communities over the years.
                                                                        risk) a fire safety visit will be scheduled for a point in the future in
Tyne and Wear FRS is informed of new properties (both domestic          accordance with the standard re-inspection frequencies held in
and non-domestic) when we receive gazetteer updates from                CFRMIS’s Inspection Frequency Officer Grade (IFOG) planner.
Ordnance Survey; however we also work with partners to identify
                                                                        The Fire Safety pending workload schedule is evaluated annually
forward plans to inform our own strategic planning.
                                                                        and premises audits are prioritised based on risk, premises type,
Domestic Properties                                                     previous compliance and fire trend data. Any non-domestic
                                                                        premises that have been demolished or that have ceased trading,
New premises are routinely added to CFRMIS through the                  will not form part of the Risk Based Inspection Programme.
gazetteer update and at the same time evaluated (as part of the
import process) to determine their MOSAIC classification type code.     In terms of forward planning the following pages set out some of the
Properties are then filtered into the relevant priority group for HSC   changes envisaged throughout Tyne and Wear based on our
or risk based inspection targeting in line with the current strategy.   planning strategy.

Similarly, any domestic premises that have been demolished will
have their building status amended accordingly in CFRMIS and will
cease to appear on any targeting reports.

 Community Risk Profile 2017 – 2020                                                                    Tyne and Wear Fire and Rescue Authority
                                                                                                                    Creating the Safest Community   18
Newcastle and Gateshead                                           Some key elements from the plan specific to Newcastle include:

Newcastle and Gateshead have been working together to produce           21,000 new homes to be built.
The Core Strategy and Urban Core Planxii will guide development         14,000 additional jobs created in areas such as offshore
in Newcastle and Gateshead through to 2030.                              engineering and life sciences.

The map below illustrates housing developments planned for the          Business expansion on sites such as: Science Central, East
two local authority areas.                                               Pilgrim Street, the Central Station and Stephenson Quarter,
                                                                         on the banks of the Tyne and at Newcastle International
                                                                         Airport.

                                                                  Some key elements from the plan specific to Gateshead include:
                                                                        11,000 new homes to be built.
                                                                        8,000 new jobs created.
                                                                        Regeneration of the area close to Dunston, Metrocentre and
                                                                         the River Derwent.
                                                                        District and local centres to be revitalised and strengthened;
                                                                         examples being Birtley, Blaydon and Felling.
                                                                        Development of Gateshead Quays and Baltic Business
                                                                         Quarter.

                                                                  The full plan can be found at: www.newcastle.gov.uk.

Community Risk Profile 2017 – 2020                                                              Tyne and Wear Fire and Rescue Authority
                                                                                                             Creating the Safest Community   19
North Tyneside                                                         The key elements of the plan include:

The map below is an extract from the North Tyneside Local Plan            Protect the Green Belt in North Tyneside
2017xiii showing potential development sites over the next 15 years.
                                                                          Provide new accessible open space – adding to the 25% of the
                                                                           borough that is already open space.

                                                                          Regenerate and redevelop brownfield sites and deliver
                                                                           appropriate development of sustainable greenfield land
                                                                           amounting to around seven per cent of the borough’s area – to
                                                                           support at least 12,700 new jobs and 23,000 more residents.

                                                                          Prioritise regeneration in Wallsend, North Shields, the coast
                                                                           and the North West.

                                                                          Ensure development considers the environmental, social and
                                                                           economic conditions of the area.

                                                                       The full plan can be found at: www.northtyneside.gov.uk

 Community Risk Profile 2017 – 2020                                                                Tyne and Wear Fire and Rescue Authority
                                                                                                                Creating the Safest Community   20
South Tyneside

The South Tyneside Local Development Frameworkxiv sets out a
number of proposals for the area including:

       Meeting the demand for up to 12,000 new homes over the next
        20 years working with a range of housing providers.
       Investing £180m in new and improved homes building on the
        success of 71 new affordable homes in Hebburn and UK’s
        biggest solar-powered social housing project at Sinclair
        Meadows in South Shields, securing economic growth by
        building on the borough’s reputation in marine, offshore and
        automotive industries to become a leading centre for advanced
        engineering and manufacturing. This will be supported by the
        ongoing partnership with Sunderland through the ‘City Deal’
        agreement to drive economic growth for the borough and
        region.
       Major new transport schemes such as Testo’s Grade               The full plan can be found at: www.southtyneside.gov.uk
        Separation, the extension of the Metro line and A185
        improvements.
       Development plans for Hebburn Town Centre, Jarrow and
        South Shields Town Centres and Waterfront.
       Regeneration plans are also to be developed for Boldon,
        Whitburn and Cleadon.

    Community Risk Profile 2017 – 2020                                                              Tyne and Wear Fire and Rescue Authority
                                                                                                                 Creating the Safest Community   21
Sunderland

Part of Sunderland’s Local Planxv is the Core Strategy and
Development Plan which is a long-term plan for development
across the city to 2033.   The full plan can be found at
www.sunderland.gov.uk.

Some key points from the plan include:

       13,824 new homes to be built across the city in various
        locations.

       An aim to provide an additional 10,337 new jobs.

       Regeneration of the city centre to provide extra retail and
        leisure facilities whilst limiting the number of hot food
        takeways.

       Ensure that the impact of the development on the city’s
        environment is limited.

       Produce an ‘Infrastructure Delivery Plan’ to set out the
        facilities required to deliver the proposed development .

In 2018, a new bridge crossing the River Wear will be opened which
is anticipated to provide a huge economic, social and community
impact.

 Community Risk Profile 2017 – 2020                                   Tyne and Wear Fire and Rescue Authority
                                                                                   Creating the Safest Community   22
Deprivation

As well as the overall makeup of the population, national researchxvi   Each of these domains has its own scores and ranks, allowing users
indicates that there is a correlation between deprivation in an area    to focus on specific aspects of deprivation. To allow consistency for
and fire risk. In particular, risk of accidental dwelling fires /       comparisons, the whole country was divided into areas containing
casualties arising from these and risk of deliberate (anti-social       a population of around 1,500 people. These areas are called Lower
behaviour) fires.                                                       Super Output Areas (LSOA).

Indices of Deprivation                                                  Based on average ranks, Tyne and Wear residents experience
                                                                        levels of deprivation among the highest in the country, as illustrated
The Office of National Statistics (ONS) produce Indices of              below.
Deprivation (IMD) every five years and was last updated in 2015xvii.
These provide a relative measure of deprivation at small area level       Regional Average Rank                                 Average IMD Rank
across England. Areas are ranked from least deprived to most              Tyne and Wear                 Most Deprived                              13184
deprived on seven different dimensions of deprivation and an
                                                                          North East                                                               13586
overall composite measure of multiple deprivation. The domains
are:                                                                      North West                                                               14040
                                                                          London                                                                   14065
            income deprivation
                                                                          West Midlands                                                            14576
            employment deprivation
                                                                          Yorkshire and The Humber                                                 14661
            health deprivation and disability
                                                                          East Midlands                                                            16887
            education, skills and training deprivation
                                                                          South West                                                               18073
            crime
                                                                          East of England                                                          18828
            barriers to housing and services                             South East                    Least Deprived                             20825
            living environment deprivation

 Community Risk Profile 2017 – 2020                                                                   Tyne and Wear Fire and Rescue Authority
                                                                                                                   Creating the Safest Community   23
Deprivation varies between and within local authority areas. Based       Deprivation by Lower Output Areas
on a ranking of average ranks, the Tyne and Wear local authority
areas are ranked as follows out of 326 local authority areas:
        Newcastle: 30th most deprived
        South Tyneside: 34th
        Sunderland: 42nd
        Gateshead: 78th
        North Tyneside: 120th
When assessed by population weighted average of the combined
ranks for the LSOAs in a local authority district; South Tyneside,
Sunderland and Gateshead are ranked 31st, 38th and 80th
respectively. Newcastle is 92nd and North Tyneside 138th.

The following map shows Tyne and Wear and ranks the LSOA on
a decile scale of 1 to 10 (most deprived to least deprived). The areas
of greatest deprivation have a tendency to be clustered in former
areas of heavy industry (e.g. along riverbanks or former coal mining
areas) and in city or town centres.

 Community Risk Profile 2017 – 2020                                                               Tyne and Wear Fire and Rescue Authority
                                                                                                               Creating the Safest Community   24
Unemployment

Level of employment is a key element in the makeup of deprivation
rankings. The North East of England (including Tyne and Wear) is
experiencing some of the highest unemployment figures in the
country.

The map on this page shows unemployment amongst those aged
16 and over with the inset showing Tyne and Wear in detail. All parts
of Tyne and Wear have a higher than average proportion of adult
unemployment as measured through receipt of out of work benefits.

A regional labour market review in September 2017 by ONSxviii
showed that although unemployment levels are decreasing, the
North East continues to have the highest rate of unemployment in
the country (6.0%) as well as the highest claimant count rate (4.1%).

Unemployment amongst 16-24 years olds also remains particularly
high. All parts of Tyne and Wear are experiencing levels higher
than the national average.

 Community Risk Profile 2017 – 2020                                     Tyne and Wear Fire and Rescue Authority
                                                                                     Creating the Safest Community   25
Worklessness                                                           In 2016, out of the 201 county / unitary authorities in Great Britain,
                                                                       the Tyne and Wear local authority areas are ranked as follows:
In recent years the percentage of workless households in England
has fallenxix. Although Tyne and Wear has seen a decrease, not all
                                                                             Newcastle – 11th
local authority areas within Tyne and Wear have followed this trend.
                                                                             South Tyneside – 26th
                                                                             Sunderland – 45th
                                       Workless Households
                                                                             Gateshead – 59th
Area                           2012    2013     2014   2015   2016
                                                                             North Tyneside – 132nd
                                (%)      (%)     (%)    (%)    (%)
England                        17.6     16.7    15.8   14.9   14.6
Tyne and Wear                  24.8     23.5    21.3   20.2   19.3     The North East region has the highest percentage of workless
  Gateshead                    24.8     23.1    18.9   16.7   18.5     households in the country at 20.1%.
  Newcastle                    25.4     26.7    22.5   23.6   23.0
  North                                                                19.3% of households in Tyne and Wear are workless. This is higher
                                22.3    20.5   16.0    14.3   13.6     than England as a whole which is 14.6%.
  Tyneside
  South
                                25.9    21.9   20.8    20.1   21.2
  Tyneside
  Sunderland                    25.6    23.5   26.0    23.6   19.1

 Community Risk Profile 2017 – 2020                                                                  Tyne and Wear Fire and Rescue Authority
                                                                                                                  Creating the Safest Community   26
The following table shows the economic activity of households in    In 2016, the reasons given for not working both nationally and in the
England.                                                            North East, are as follows:
                             Working        Mixed       Workless
  English                                                                                Reasons for Not Working 2016
                            Households    Households   Households
  Regions
                               (%)           (%)          (%)
                                                                       100%
  England                            57       29           15                               9.1                                6.7
  North East                         54       26           20           90%
                                                                                                                              10.4
  Tyne and Wear                      54       27           19                              13.3
                                                                        80%
   Gateshead                         56       26           19                                                                 16.7
                                                                        70%                16.9
   Newcastle                         52       25           23
   North                                                                60%                                                   15.4
   Tyneside                          60       27           14
                                                                                           16.8
   South                                                                50%
   Tyneside                          53       26           21                                                                 15.4
                                                                        40%
   Sunderland                        52       29           19                              13.7
  North West                         54       28           18           30%
  Yorkshire And
                                     57       27           17           20%
  The Humber                                                                               30.2
                                                                                                                              35.4
  East Midlands                      58       27           15           10%
  West Midlands                      53       31           16
                                                                         0%
  East of                                                                                England                          North East
                                     60       27           13
  England
                                                                                 Sick/disabled                 Unemployed
  London                             54       33           13
                                                                                 Retired early                 Looking after family / home
  South East                         59       29           12
                                                                                 Study                         Other
  South West                         59       28           13

Community Risk Profile 2017 – 2020                                                                 Tyne and Wear Fire and Rescue Authority
                                                                                                                Creating the Safest Community   27
Health and Wellbeing

The health and wellbeing of the community at large and sections of
the population within it, are also key elements of deprivation
rankings which impact on community risk; including risk of fire and
other harm.

Overall, across a range of public health indicators included in Public
Health England health profilesxx, health in Tyne and Wear is
significantly worse than the national average. These indicators
include:

    Adults smoking, smoking in pregnancy and smoking related
     deaths
    Obese children (Year 6)
    Increasing and higher risk drinking
    Hospital stays for alcohol related harm
    Drug misuse
    Male and female life expectancy
    Early deaths from heart disease and cancer
A number of these factors are also directly related to risk of fires,
deaths and injuries.

 Community Risk Profile 2017 – 2020                                      Tyne and Wear Fire and Rescue Authority
                                                                                      Creating the Safest Community   28
Alcohol Use                                                                                                  The rate of hospital admissions in Tyne and Wear for alcohol
                                                                                                             attributable conditions per 100,000 population (2015/16) is higher
Alcohol is very much a part of the culture of the North East and has                                         than the rest of Englandxxii.
been highlighted as a serious issue.
                                                                                                             The chart below outlines the number of admissions per 100,000 of
The table below shows some key facts relating to alcohol and how
                                                                                                             the Tyne and Wear population where the cause for admission is
our local authority areas compare to the national averagexxi.
                                                                                                             primarily, wholly or partly related to alcohol misuse.

In comparison to England                        Better       Similar      Worse                                         Alcohol Related Hospital Admissions per 100,000
                                                                                                                                      population 2015/16

                                                                                                                                                                                                               4,510
                                                                                                              5,000

                                                                                                Sunderland
                                                 Gateshead

                                                              Newcastle

                                                                          Tyneside

                                                                                     Tyneside
                                      England

                                                                                                              4,500

                                                                                                                               3,880

                                                                                                                                                                                                                                        3,800
                                                                                      South
                                                                           North

                                                                                                                                                       3,650

                                                                                                                                                                                    3,650
Indicator                Period                                                                               4,000

                                                                                                                                                                                                       3,270
                                                                                                              3,500

                                                                                                                       2,830

                                                                                                                                                                                                                                2,760
                                                                                                                                                                            2,720
                                                                                                                                               2,670
Alcohol-specific          2013 -                                                                              3,000
                                      11.5       17.8          15.8         17.5       18.7     21.1

                                                                                                                                                                                                                       2,250
mortality *                2015

                                                                                                                                                                                            1,970
                                                                                                                                       1,910

                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                1,910
Alcohol-related                                                                                               2,500

                                                                                                                                                                1,810
                            2015      46.1       57.1          55.0         57.0       47.4     68.5
mortality *
                                                                                                              2,000
Claimants of
benefits due to             2016 132.8          233.5        239.3        202.2      241.9 232.1              1,500
alcoholism *
Alcohol related                                                                                               1,000
                          2013 -
road traffic                          26.0       25.6          14.9         25.5       19.3     26.1
                           2015
accidents                                                                                                     500
Number of
premises licensed           2015                                                                                 0
                                        1.3           3.7          9.1        6.6        7.5       5.6                Gateshead                Newcastle                     North                     South                   Sunderland
to sell alcohol per           /16
                                                                                                                                                                            Tyneside                  Tyneside
square kilometre

(* per 100,000 population;  per 1,000 population)                                                                                                             All       Male               Female

 Community Risk Profile 2017 – 2020                                                                                                                                     Tyne and Wear Fire and Rescue Authority
                                                                                                                                                                                                Creating the Safest Community                      29
National historic statistics have shown that fire and rescue services
                                                                                         TWFRS Primary Fires where Drug or Alcohol
attend a large number of alcohol and drug related fires. This is borne                    Impairment is Suspected 2009/10 - 2016/17
out by the observations of Tyne and Wear firefighters attending          100
incidents.                                                                     89
                                                                          90
It is estimated that of the 14,744 primary fire incidents attended by     80                        75
TWFRS between 2009/10 and 2016/17, 4.6% were suspected of                                 72
                                                                                                              68
                                                                                                                                   72
                                                                          70
having drug or alcohol impairment as a contributory factor. Quite
                                                                                                                        58                    59
often the cause is due to people drinking alcohol and then falling        60
                                                                                                                                                         53
asleep whilst cooking or smoking.                                         50

The chart opposite shows the breakdown of these incidents.                40

                                                                          30
                                                                                    22         22                                       23
                                                                                                         20                  19
                                                                          20
                                                                                                                   13
                                                                                                                                                   9          9
                                                                          10

                                                                           0
                                                                               2009/10 2010/11 2011/12 2012/13 2013/14 2014/15 2015/16 2016/17

                                                                                                         Accidental     Deliberate

 Community Risk Profile 2017 – 2020                                                                           Tyne and Wear Fire and Rescue Authority
                                                                                                                             Creating the Safest Community    30
Smoking                                                                 Mortality rates attributable to smoking are shown in the following
                                                                        graph with the North East experiencing a higher rate per 100,000
Smoking also remains prevalent in the North East where 17.2% of         population then all other regions of England.
adults are smokersxxiii. Although smoking is on the decrease, it is
still a contributory factor in the health of the region.
                                                                                 Smoking attributable mortality per 100,000 population
                                                                                                  aged 35+ (2013-15)
The table below shows the estimated prevalence of smoking by
                                                                         400
local authority areaxxiv.                                                                 369.0
                                                                                                  342.9
                                                                         350
 Area                                 Estimate of current smokers (%)                                     323.9

 England                                           15.5                  300   283.5                                       285.4      280.9
                                                                                                                                                 260.4     254.3     249.4
     Gateshead                                     17.9                  250
                                                                                                                                                                             246.2

     Newcastle                                     17.6
                                                                         200
     North Tyneside                                16.4
                                                                         150
     South Tyneside                                18.5
     Sunderland                                    18.0                  100

                                                                          50

                                                                           0

                                                                                England

                                                                                                                                                           England
                                                                                          North

                                                                                                  North

                                                                                                                                                  London
                                                                                                                           Midlands

                                                                                                                                      Midlands
                                                                                                          Yorkshire and

                                                                                                                                                                     South

                                                                                                                                                                             South
                                                                                                  West

                                                                                                                                                                             West
                                                                                          East

                                                                                                                                                           East of

                                                                                                                                                                     East
                                                                                                           the Humber

                                                                                                                                       West
                                                                                                                             East
 Community Risk Profile 2017 – 2020                                                                                       Tyne and Wear Fire and Rescue Authority
                                                                                                                                            Creating the Safest Community      31
Smoking prevalence is a risk factor for fire. Over the eight years                Tyne and Wear has a relatively low incidence of fire deaths
between 2009/10 and 2016/17, 4.8% of primary fires were smoking                   compared to other metropolitan areas. However, smoking has been
related. The chart below shows the breakdown of these incidents                   a factor in a number of the fire deaths which have happened in
by district.                                                                      recent years.

                                                                                  Our partnership document “If only we’d known …” contains a
             Smoking Related Primary Fires in Tyne and Wear
                           2009/10 - 2016/17                                      number of case studies about fire deaths including the cases of
                                                                                  Elsie and Mark who were both heavy smokers. The document
 300
                                                                                  illustrates the extra assistance and advice TWFRS can give to
                                                                                  vulnerable individuals who smoke.
 250
                              96
 200

 150
                                                                         38

 100
              19              176           21
                                                           16
                                                                        114
  50
              79                            79             74

   0
         Gateshead        Newcastle     North            South       Sunderland
                                       Tyneside         Tyneside

                        Smoking materials        Cigarette lighter

Over the same period, 8.3% of accidental dwelling fires were
smoking related.

 Community Risk Profile 2017 – 2020                                                                          Tyne and Wear Fire and Rescue Authority
                                                                                                                          Creating the Safest Community   32
Drug Use                                                                 National Statistics show that in 2015/16, the North East region
                                                                         ranked second in the country for the number of hospital admissions
The most recent Crime Survey for England and Walesxxv indicates          per 100,000 population for drug usexxvi.
that drug use has fallen in England.

In 2016/17 the statistics show that:                                                                     Number of
                                                                                                        admissions
                                                                          Region                  Total                            Male Female
                                                                                                        per 100,000
   Around 1 in 12 (8.5%) adults aged 16 to 59 had taken a drug in
                                                                                                         population
    the last year. This is similar to 2015/16 but significantly lower
    than a decade ago.                                                    England                15,279                26          8,116          6,956
                                                                          North East               937                 36            532           405
   Around 1 in 25 (4.0%) adults aged 16 to 59 had taken a drug in        North West              3,133                44          1,683          1,450
    the last month, while one in 11 (9.0%) young adults aged 16 to        Yorkshire and the
    24 had done so.                                                                               1,644                31            895           749
                                                                          Humber
                                                                          East Midlands           1,268                27            693           574
   Around 1 in 5 (19.2%) young adults aged 16 to 24 had taken a
                                                                          West Midlands           1,524                27            835           689
    drug in the last year.
                                                                          East of England         1,319                22            673           646
   Around one-third (34.2%) of adults aged 16 to 59 had taken            London                  1,214                14            672           541
    drugs at some point during their lifetime.                            South East              2,049                23          1,031          1,018
                                                                          South West              1,549                29            748           801
Drug use is a risk factor in fire, although it is not considered to be
as prevalent a risk factor as smoking or alcohol use.

 Community Risk Profile 2017 – 2020                                                                  Tyne and Wear Fire and Rescue Authority
                                                                                                                  Creating the Safest Community    33
Mobility

The physical mobility of members of the community is anecdotally
a risk factor for fire and also for ability to raise the alarm or get to
safety should a fire occur, although incident analysis does not find
a significant statistical correlation between mobility and fire injuries
in Tyne and Wear.

Whilst Tyne and Wear has the lowest population of metropolitan fire
authority areas, census data 2011 shows that the percentage of
individuals in our population who have a long term illness or
disability is one of the highest. This is broken down into those
whose day to day activities are limited a lot, those whose activities
are limited a little and the sum of both.

When looking at the percentage of the population whose day to day
activities are limited a lot, Tyne and Wear is ranked 2nd highest of
the metropolitan areas. When looking at the percentage of the
population whose day to day activities are limited a little, Tyne and
Wear is ranked 1st.

The map on this page is based on census data and shows the
percentage of the population whose day to day activities are limited
by ward. Byker and Walker in Newcastle and Hendon, Redhill and
Hetton in Sunderland are the areas with the highest proportion of
individuals who describe themselves as having limited activity.

 Community Risk Profile 2017 – 2020                                        Tyne and Wear Fire and Rescue Authority
                                                                                        Creating the Safest Community   34
Obesity                                                                                   Hospital Admissions related to Obesity
                                                                                             per 100,000 population 2015/16
In 2015/16 the national level of hospital admissions related to
                                                                        70
obesity saw a 15% reduction on the peak in 2011/12, although this             62
is almost three times more than a decade agoxxvii.                      60

                                                                        50
                 Hospital Admissions Nationally related to Obesity
                                2005/06 - 2015/16                       40
 14,000                                                                 30           27       26

 12,000                                                                 20                            16
                                                                                                                 14      13        12        11
 10,000                                                                                                                                                 8
                                                                        10

  8,000                                                                  0

  6,000

  4,000

  2,000

       0

                                                                       Obesity is linked to a number of health issues as well as to mobility;
                                                                       although not representing a significant part of TWFRS’ operational
                            All persons   Male      Female             workload, the number of bariatric rescues has increased in recent
                                                                       years - this requires particular skills and training.
The North East has a higher level of obesity than any other area of
the country. This is shown in the following graph which illustrates
obesity related hospital admissions based on the patient’s region of
residence.

 Community Risk Profile 2017 – 2020                                                                        Tyne and Wear Fire and Rescue Authority
                                                                                                                        Creating the Safest Community       35
Mental Health

                                                                                                                                  Cumbria and North

                                                                                                                                                        NHS Newcastle &
                                                                                                                                   East NHS Region

                                                                                                                                                                                                        NHS Sunderland
                                                                                                                                                        Gateshead CCG

                                                                                                                                                                          Tyneside CCG

                                                                                                                                                                                         Tyneside CCG
                                                                                                                                                                                          NHS South
                                                                                                                                                                            NHS North
Public Health England publish local profiles associated with mental

                                                                                                                        England
                                                                                                          Period

                                                                                                                                                                                                             CCG
healthxxviii. Some of the indicators relating to Tyne and Wear are
                                                                       Indicator
shown opposite.

The table shows the figures for the North East Clinical
Commissioning Groups (CCGs) alongside the Cumbria and North            Long-term mental health
                                                                                                       2016/
                                                                       problems (GP Patient                            5.7          7.3                  9.2               6.3            9.0            7.7
East NHS region and the average for England as a whole.                Survey):  (aged 18+)            17
                                                                       Depression and anxiety
                                                                                                       2016/
Some noticeable indicators include depression and anxiety              prevalence (GP Patient
                                                                                                        17
                                                                                                                       13.7       16.5                  17.3              15.7           17.1           17.8
                                                                       Survey):  (aged 18+)
prevalence and the rates of hospital admissions as a result of self    Depression recorded
                                                                                                       2015/
harm; where the rate across all local CCGs is worse than the           prevalence (QOF):  (aged                       8.3          9.2                  8.1               8.2            9.9            8.9
                                                                       18+)                             16
national average.                                                      Depression recorded
                                                                                                       2015/
                                                                       incidence (QOF) - new                           1.4          1.6                  1.5               1.5            1.5            1.4
                                                                       diagnosis:  (aged 18+)          16
                                                                       Hospital admissions as a
                                                                                                       2014/
                                                                       result of self harm (aged 10-         398.8                    --               440.2 535.5 506.3 516.6
                                                                       24 years) *                      15
                                                                                                       2013-
                                                                       Suicide rate *                                  10.1           --                10.2              11.7           10.2           10.0
                                                                                                        15
                                                                       People on Care Programme        2016/
                                                                       Approach (CPA): * (aged          17   383.0 425.0 383.0 364.0                                                     289            256
                                                                       18+)                             Q4
                                                                       Stable and appropriate          2016/
                                                                       accommodation: % of people       17    58.4 68.5 50.5 48.2                                                        47.5           60.7
                                                                       on CPA (aged 18-69)              Q4

                                                                       In comparison to England                        Better                         Similar                Worse

                                                                      (* per 100,000 population;  % of respondents;  % of practice register)

 Community Risk Profile 2017 – 2020                                                                                Tyne and Wear Fire and Rescue Authority
                                                                                                                                     Creating the Safest Community                                      36
Wealth

Wealth is a key determinant of wellbeing.

The most recent Wealth and Assets Surveyxxix covers the period
from July 2012 to June 2014 and combines property wealth,
physical wealth, financial wealth and private pension wealth to
calculate overall household wealth.

The report shows that:

   The North East has the lowest median household total wealth
    with a value of £150,000, as shown in the map oppositexxx.

   The North East region has one of the lowest ownership rates of
    households who owned their own property and/or other property
    of some kind.

   Households in the North East had the lowest mean value of
    physical wealth.

   Households in the North East had the lowest median net
    financial wealth value.

   The North East have one of the lowest percentage rates of
    households with wealth in private pensions.

   Only 2% of households in the North East fall into the wealthiest
    10% of households in Great Britain. This is the lowest of all
    regions.

 Community Risk Profile 2017 – 2020                                    Tyne and Wear Fire and Rescue Authority
                                                                                    Creating the Safest Community   37
Crime and Anti-social Behaviour                                                                                      In terms of anti-social behaviour (ASB) the national trend is
                                                                                                                     downwardxxxiii, which is shown in the graph below. The graph also
The level of crime and anti-social behaviour in an area also features                                                illustrates that the North East and the Northumbria police area,
in the makeup of deprivation profiles and community risk.                                                            which includes Tyne and Wear, lags behind England as a whole.
Northumbria Police have produced a Police and Crime Plan for
2017 – 2021xxxi which sets out how they will work with local
                                                                                                                              Anti-social Behaviour Incidents per 1,000 population
authorities and community safety partnerships to improve crime in                                                                              2009/10 - 2016/17
the Northumbria area. The chart below shows the total of all                                                          120
recorded crime between 2009/10 and 2014/15 in our local authority
areasxxxii.                                                                                                           100

                      Total Recorded Crime 2009/10 - 2016/17                                                           80

 40000
                                              33,517

                                                                                                                       60
 35000
                                                                                                                       40
                                         26,860
                                        26,115

                                                                                                            25,018
 30000
                                     24,340
                                   22,890

                                  22,113

                                                                                                                       20
                                 21,124
                                 21,013

                                                                                                      20,568
 25000

                                                                                                     19,394
                                                                                                    18,921
                       17,804

                                                                                                  17,619
                                                                                                                        0
                                                                   16,133

                                                                                               15,090
                                                                                              14,673
 20000

                                                                                              14,247
                                                                                                                            2009/10 2010/11 2011/12 2012/13 2013/14 2014/15 2015/16 2016/17
                 12,769

                                                                                     12,543
               11,713
              10,638

                                                            10,454

 15000                                                                                                                                  Cleveland      Durham             Northumbria
                                                                                 9,662
            9,398
            9,276

                                                                                9,237
            9,192

                                                          8,851
           8,367

                                                         8,364

                                                         8,254

                                                                              7,878
                                                        7,791
                                                       7,634
                                                       7,291

                                                                             7,214
                                                                             7,088
                                                                            6,938
                                                                            6,569

                                                                                                                                        North East     ENGLAND
 10000

  5000

      0
            Gateshead             Newcastle              North                South           Sunderland
                                                        Tyneside             Tyneside

                                2009/10     2010/11        2011/12          2012/13
                                2013/14     2014/15        2015/16          2016/17

 Community Risk Profile 2017 – 2020                                                                                                                  Tyne and Wear Fire and Rescue Authority
                                                                                                                                                                  Creating the Safest Community   38
The map opposite gives further illustration to the issue of crime and
anti-social behaviour across England. It should be noted that these
are anti-social behaviour incidents reported to the police for each
Police Force area. There is no accurate overall measure of anti-
social behaviour across different organisations.

The table below shows the highest ranked Police Force areas and
Met FRSs.

 Police Force                               ASB per 1,000 pop
 Cleveland                                           76
 South Yorkshire *                                   56
 Lancashire                                          51
 Northamptonshire                                    45
 Greater Manchester *                                44
 Northumbria *                                       42
 Gloucestershire                                     41
 Derbyshire                                          40
 Merseyside *                                        39
 North Yorkshire                                     37
 West Mercia                                         36
 Bedfordshire                                        36
 Durham                                              35
 Metropolitan Police (London) *                      32
 West Yorkshire *                                    25
 West Midlands *                                     21
                                                                        * Met FRS area

 Community Risk Profile 2017 – 2020                                                      Tyne and Wear Fire and Rescue Authority
                                                                                                      Creating the Safest Community   39
This picture is also reflected in incidence of deliberate secondary                    Deliberate fires represent 73% of all fires in Tyne and Wear in
fires in Tyne and Wear. Despite reducing by 29% since 2009/10,                         2016/17 against a national average of 47% in the same yearxxxiv.
Tyne and Wear’s level of deliberate secondary fires per 10,000                         Although these fires tend to have a lower impact than other fire
population remains proportionately very high. The chart below                          types, the likelihood of them occurring is clearly a major element in
shows TWFRS in comparison with the other Mets.                                         the fire risk facing Tyne and Wear.

                                                    Deliberate Secondary Fires in Met FRSs per 10,000 population
60.00                                                                    2009/10 - 2016/17

50.00

40.00

30.00

20.00

10.00

 0.00
               2009/10                2010/11            2011/12           2012/13             2013/14          2014/15                2015/16                 2016/17

                   Greater London          Greater Manchester      Merseyside        South Yorkshire     Tyne & Wear          West Midlands           West Yorkshire

 Community Risk Profile 2017 – 2020                                                                                       Tyne and Wear Fire and Rescue Authority
                                                                                                                                       Creating the Safest Community     40
Road Traffic Collisions

Road traffic collisions (RTCs) account for the majority of the “special                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                               Of the 11,578 special service incidents during this five year period,
service” rescues undertaken by TWFRS, as indicated below.                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                             the top three incidents are:

                                                                                TWFRS Special Service Incidents                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                              1,750 (15%) RTCs
                                                                                      2012/13 - 2016/17                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                      1,573 (14%) no action (not false alarm)
                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                          
         1750

 2000                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                         1,067 (9%) flooding
                1573

 1800
 1600
                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                      In 2016, the number of reported road deaths from road traffic
 1400
                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                      collisions in Great Britain increased by 4% in comparison to 2015
                                              1067

                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                      and is the highest annual total since 2011xxxv. In Tyne and Wear
                                                         1019

 1200
                                                                                 984

                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                      there has been no change in the number of road deaths and is the
                                                                                                                  842

 1000
  800
                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                      lowest figure over the last five years.
                                                                                                                                 510
                                                                                                                                                         502
                                                                                                                                                                            502
                                                                                                                                                                                                           476
                                                                                                                                                                                                                                            444
                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                    413

  600                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                 The number of reported casualties in Great Britain in 2016
                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                      268
                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                          266
                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                       221

  400                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                 189
                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                      continues to see reductions. Tyne and Wear saw a 16% decrease
                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                             174
                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                              127
                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                93
                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                           93
                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                         61
  200                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                 when compared to 2015 and is the lowest figure for the county over

                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                    4
     0                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                the last five years.

                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                    Water provision
                                              Flooding
         RTC

                                                                                Medical Incident - Co-responder

                                                                                                                                                         Suicide/attempts
                                                                                                                                 Making Safe (not RTC)
                                                                                                                  Lift Release

                                                                                                                                                                            Animal assistance incidents

                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                    Removal of objects from people

                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                         Stand By
                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                      Evacuation (no fire)
                No action (not false alarm)

                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                           Advice Only
                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                     Medical Incident - First responder

                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                       Hazardous Materials incident
                                                                                                                                                                                                          Other rescue/release of persons
                                                                                                                                                                                                                                            Assist other agencies

                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                             Removal of people from objects
                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                              Rescue or evacuation from water
                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                          Spills and Leaks (not RTC)

                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                Other Transport incident
                                                         Effecting entry/exit

                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                      In 2016, England experienced a decrease of 2% in the number of
                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                      reported road traffic collisions. This downward trend is mirrored in
                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                      Tyne and Wear where there has been a decrease of 14%xxxvi.

 Community Risk Profile 2017 – 2020                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                 Tyne and Wear Fire and Rescue Authority
                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                 Creating the Safest Community   41
This chart shows the comparative number of reported collisions                         When comparing the total reported collisions and the number of
across the North East region.                                                          TWFRS incidents it is clear that TWFRS are not called upon to
                                                                                       assist at all road traffic collisions. The following chart shows RTC
                        Reported RTCs by Road Class and                                attendance by our Service over the last five years.
                           Local Authority Area 2016
  900

          19
  800                                                                                                    TWFRS Road Traffic Collisions Attended
          37
                                                                                                                  2012/13 - 2016/17
  700
                                                                                        450
         261           14                                                                        387
  600           78                                                                      400
                       41                                                                                                                     358
                                                                                                               332           331                               342
                                 2                                                      350
  500                           29
                243    224                                                              300
                                       6
  400                          189    37                                                250
                                             34
  300                                119                                                200
                                                                  1
         488                                 158
                                                     28    26    17     1               150
  200                                                      78          14
                       338                           105         83          4
                325                                                    73               100
                               293                                                9
                                     253                                     66
  100                                        177                                  43
                                                           149   141                     50
                                                     121               120
                                                                             80   68
     0                                                                                    0
                                                                                               2012/13        2013/14      2014/15         2015/16           2016/17

                             Minor   Principal     Trunk   Motorway

Community Risk Profile 2017 – 2020                                                                                      Tyne and Wear Fire and Rescue Authority
                                                                                                                                     Creating the Safest Community     42
Environmental Risks

Environmental challenges will continue to influence our operational                Along with partners in the Local Resilience Forum, the Service
response. Floods in particular are listed among the highest risk                   makes extensive use of risk data from the Environment Agency in
incidents in the Local Resilience Forum’s Community Risk                           developing plans and procedures. This data includes:
Registerxxxvii. TWFRS’s High Volume Pumping and Swift Water
Rescue assets are part of the regional mitigation for such incidents.                 Detailed river network
                                                                                      Flood alert areas
2012 being the wettest ever recorded in England, led to an increase                   Surface water flooding
of 75% in flood related incidents attended by TWFRS between April                     Surface water flooding from a 1 in 30 year event (similar to that
and September 2012 compared to the same period in 2011.                                experienced in 2012)
                                                                                      Surface water flooding from a 1 in 200 year event
The chart below shows the pattern of flood and other water related
incidents in recent years.                                                            Flood map (flooding from rivers and the sea)
                                                                                      Flood warning areas
                 TWFRS Flooding / Rescue from Water Incidents                         Groundwater vulnerability
                              2012/13 - 2016/17
                                                                                      Reservoir flooding
 350       319
 300
 250                                                       227
                           200                                          189
 200
 150                                        132

 100
                 37              29
  50                                              16             25           20

   0
           2012/13         2013/14          2014/15       2015/16       2016/17

                      Flooding        Rescue or evacuation from water

 Community Risk Profile 2017 – 2020                                                                              Tyne and Wear Fire and Rescue Authority
                                                                                                                              Creating the Safest Community   43
The Environment Agencyxxxviii considers that there is no coastal       The following maps show the surface water flooding scenarios
flood risk in Tyne and Wear and limited river flood risk is confined   within our local authority areas.
to particular areas as shown in the map below.
                                                                       Gateshead

 Community Risk Profile 2017 – 2020                                                              Tyne and Wear Fire and Rescue Authority
                                                                                                              Creating the Safest Community   44
Newcastle                            North Tyneside

Community Risk Profile 2017 – 2020                    Tyne and Wear Fire and Rescue Authority
                                                                   Creating the Safest Community   45
South Tyneside                       Sunderland

Community Risk Profile 2017 – 2020                Tyne and Wear Fire and Rescue Authority
                                                               Creating the Safest Community   46
UK climate projectionsxxxix estimate the impact of different carbon
emissions scenarios on temperature and precipitation over different
time periods. The levels of uncertainty in these projections are very
high however, it is estimated that for the North East in terms of
precipitation, the impact of a medium increase in carbon emissions
compared with the 1961-1990 baseline could be as shown in the
table below.

                                  Winter mean          Summer mean
 Decade                           precipitation         precipitation
                                (central estimate)   (central estimate)
 2020s                                +4%                   -6%
 2050s                                +11%                 -15%
 2080s                                +14%                 -18%

 Community Risk Profile 2017 – 2020                                       Tyne and Wear Fire and Rescue Authority
                                                                                       Creating the Safest Community   47
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