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Future of Europe Observer
Vol. 8 No. 3 November 2020
In this joint special issue of the Post Pandemic Prospects in the Euro-Mediterranean
ZEI-MEDAC Future of Europe
Observer, Master Fellows “Class
Region
of 2020“ and scholars from the
Mediterranean Academy of Di-
plomatic Studies (MEDAC) in
T he Covid-19 pandemic
is the most adverse
peacetime shock to the global
across the Mediterranean
area. Economic downturn
will give rise to instability
Malta and from the Center for economy in over a century. everywhere but especially in
European Integration Studies The economic consequences of the developing states of both
(ZEI) in Germany write about this evolving crisis will impact North Africa and sub-Sahara
the impacts of the Covid-19 negatively both developed Africa. Mismanagement
Pandemic in the Euro-Mediter- and developing countries for of the pandemic will lead
ranean region, displaying the la- years to come. In the past to further uprisings in the
test product of the longstanding decade the Mediterranean decade ahead that could result
cooperation between both insti- has witnessed its fair share in shifts to either stronger
tutions. of upheaval as a result of democracies, or even more
the Arab Spring revolutions likely, militant autocracies.
which saw different degrees In Europe, northern European
Contents of political and economic states and southern European
turbulence play out in Tunisia, states also face a solidarity
Egypt, and Libya and outright challenge that is essential to
I. Socio-Economic Impacts........1 conflict in Syria and Libya. address successfully if the
After a decade of continuous EU is to remain a relevant
II. Mask Diplomacy & Risks to transition, the Covid-19 player in global and regional
the Rule of Law..............................8 pandemic has unleashed relations. At a regional level
even more uncertainty and Euro-Mediterranean relations
instability across the MENA risk being overwhelmed by
III. Post-Pandemic Conflicts = region. The severe economic the emergence of a permanent
Pre-Pandemic Conflicts?..........14 contraction in sectors that north-south geopolitical fault-
most Mediterranean countries line. The temptation to erect a
are dependent upon such as cordon sanitaire between the
tourism will have a multiplier EU and the southern shore of
effect across all areas of the the Mediterranean must be
economy. The resultant loss avoided at all costs. Just as the
of jobs, investment, and the EU needs to avoid a north-
downturn in future economic south divide from emerging
prospects will put more between its own members it
pressure on governments must also ensure that a north-
to deliver support to their south divide does not emerge
respective citizens or suffer across the Mediterranean.
Future of Europe Observer civil societal upheaval on a Only robust political and
accompany the debate on governance scale not witnessed to date. economic leadership at a
and regulation in the European Union.
Authors are ZEI Scholars, Master of The Covid-19 crisis will Euro-Mediterranean level
European Studies Fellows and Alumni. thus accentuate further that seeks to implement
the disparities that exist a strategic plan of action
engaging all Mediterranean
I. Socio-Economic Impacts
states and countering forces of paralysis will therefore become imperative for almost all
and fragmentation will be able to assist of the southern Mediterranean states to develop
in mitigating the numerous sources of their respective “hinterland,” the Sahara. Egypt
instability across the Mediterranean region. and Algeria have already started to move in this
Of course much will depend on the length and direction. This means creating jobs, schools,
severity of the pandemic. Will the economic hospitals, and above all housing for tens of
downturn be a profound one that has a millions of people every year, away from the
multiplier effect for more than a generation present urban centres, towards more attractive
or be equivalent to a sabbatical from regular living conditions. While this is a huge challenge
economic cycles? If the health crisis leads to the post Covid-19 moment of generating
less development in the decade ahead across employment provides an opportunity when
the MENA region, this could lead to a collapse such an immense undertaking should take place.
of current systems of governance and the The EU should therefore discuss with its
emergence of more failed states. Such a scenario Mediterranean partners a long-term strategy
of increased instability would give rise to a for settling some 100 million people away from
regional setting where a tidal wave of economic the present urban centers, as Brazil, Nigeria,
migrants will seek to cross the Mediterranean and most recently China have done. Such a
towards Europe in an effort to escape from program should become the biggest public-
the impoverished post Covid-19 reality. private investment and employment program
While turning back the clocks is obviously not ever undertaken in the Mediterranean.
an option what strategy is required to ensure It should provide for the most advanced
that Mediterranean states land on their feet post technology of “desert living,” climate-adapted
pandemic? It is apparent that all Mediterranean housing, solar energy, and road and rail
states will face common challenges in post- connections. It could give a tremendous boost
Covid-19 times as a result of the international to a modern Mediterranean culture of living
economic downturn that impacts all sectors and technology by drawing on experiences in
including the very important sector of tourism. the south-west of the US, Dubai, and Brazil.
In order to arrive at a viable regional agenda The EU would also learn from this experience.
for recovery it is essential that political and It would have to finance part of the blueprints
economic leadership maps out a sustainable and the advanced technology to be applied.
development program that makes the The success of coordinating post pandemic
Mediterranean a more attractive foreign direct Euro-Mediterranean relations will be
investment location than hitherto the case. determined by the extent to which interaction
Managing the ramifications of the historic between these two adjacent regions of the
Covid-19 crisis in an effective manner demands Mediterranean contributes to an improvement
that a Euro-Mediterranean summit be called to in the standard of living of all peoples. A
address challenges in a collective and coherent more integrated engagement should focus
manner. This international initiative will on immediately enhancing Euro-Arab R&D
be tasked with addressing issues pertaining in the field of innovation, especially when it
to education, health care, and tourism and comes to renewable and alternative energy.
focus on launching a common Mediterranean Second, the EU needs to give a boost to
infrastructure development plan that generates education. There will not be sustainable
tens of thousands of jobs in all countries. development without improved training and
More specifically the Euro-Mediterranean technology. This is the Mediterranean’s weakest
Recovery Plan should address a number point and their largest disadvantage in the
of strategic objectives. First, it should help international markets. The EU should therefore
southern Mediterranean governments move commit the bulk of the future ENP funding to
their citizens away from the overcrowded education, training, and technology. It should:
coastal belt. By 2035, living conditions along the - Help, in particular Egypt and Morocco to
coasts will become increasingly unbearable. It provide 100 per cent of children with primary
2 Future of Europe Observer Vol. 8 No. 3 November 2020
education with modern curricula; institution, the Mediterranean Academy of
- Massively finance teacher training; Diplomatic Studies (MEDAC) where over 800
- Encourage the MED countries to establish graduates from across the Mediterranean and
“Arab Erasmus and Bologna programs” of beyond have been trained in the last 30 years.
student exchanges and quality improvements Between 1996 and 2012, MEDAC together with
of their universities; the European Commission and the Maltese
Ministry of Foreign Affairs was also responsible
- Encourage European public research for coordinating the Euro-Mediterranean
institutions to twin with their Mediterranean Information and Training Seminars. The Malta
counterparts and thereby help them raise their Seminars were an official confidence building
performance; mechanism of the Barcelona Process where
- Engage in a meaningful program of more than 1,500 diplomats had the opportunity
scholarships for PhD students in computer to interact. The time has come to re-launch such
technology, science, and engineering. a Euro-Mediterranean diplomatic training
Strengthening such practical policy dialogue program and to emulate this exercise in Euro-
mechanisms is essential in the ENP (2020-2030) Mediterranean diplomacy in other areas such as
perspective if one is serious about integrating that of justice and home affairs so that a future
the Mediterranean partners close into the fabric generation of professionals from other sectors
of European society. also have the chance to share a similar experience
The Euro-Mediterranean Recovery Plan must Third, the Euro-Mediterranean Recovery
also make available a substantial scholarship Plan should give a boost to renewable energy.
scheme for university students from Euro- The Mediterranean requires more expertise in
Mediterranean partner countries and increase modern technology. This is one area in which
mobility grants for higher education staff. the Mediterranean can become world leaders.
Education is a sector where much more needs Few countries on earth offer so many favorable
to be done. The European Commission together opportunities for the major three or four most
with its member states needs to trigger both promising technologies for producing renewable
public and private stakeholders to work hand in energy at competitive costs. Mediterranean
hand with a long-term perspective to attract a states have ample sunshine throughout most
larger number of Arab students to their shores. of the year and 10,000 km of coastlines with
This will of course require an updating of good to excellent wind and wave conditions,
procedures for visas, making them more user- especially on the Atlantic and Red Sea coasts.
friendly for such a category of professionals. Why not marry these natural advantages
Future Euro-Med programs need to ensure that with the EU’s rich experience in the design
people-to-people interaction is at the forefront, and use of renewable energies and engage
especially young people as the Anna Lindh in a comprehensive and long-term EU-
Foundation Young Mediterranean Programme Mediterranean development effort in a post
has been championing. It is essential that a Covid-19 recovery program? Both sides
much larger number of students from the Arab would immensely benefit from such joint
world are given the opportunity to study in undertaking, which would have to involve
the EU. The Bologna process must be made public and private research institutions,
functional to them. The same goes for joint EU- solar companies, utilities, and developers.
Arab research projects. The EU must introduce The EU would benefit in the following domains:
a package of programs that seeks to tap into the - It would open a new big market for large-scale
wealth of intelligence in the Euro-Med region application of its technologies in its immediate
via scholarships, seminars, and other initiatives. neighborhood under ideal conditions.
When it comes to diplomatic training, Malta - It would be able to diversify its energy supply
has already established itself as a regional from fossil to renewable by importing “clean”
center of excellence in the Mediterranean electricity from Egypt, Libya, Algeria, and
through its educational and training Morocco, all of which dispose of ample fields for
Vol. 8 No. 3 November 2020 Future of Europe Observer 3
I. Socio-Economic Impacts
installing large solar fields (both PV and solar- List of References
thermal) to be connected to the European-
Mediterranean grid under construction. Jung, Alexander: “The Beginning of De-Globalization”,
The Mediterranean would benefit in four ways: Der Spiegal , May 5, 2020.
- By making its energy supply sustainable Nye Jr, Joseph S..: “No, the Coronavirus will not change
beyond the times when fossil sources will reach the Global Order”, Foreign Policy, April 16, 2020.
depletion. Bastin et al, Jean Francois: “Understanding climate
- By cooperating more closely with European change from a global analysis of city analgoues”, Plos
research institutes in the development of more One, July 10, 2019.
sophisticated research facilities. Harari, Yuval Noah: “The World After Coronavirus”,
- By getting involved in the manufacturing Financial Times, March 20, 2020.
and installation of solar/wind/wave facilities,
jointly with European partners. Lesser, Ian: “A coronavirus Marshall Plan alone won’t be
nearly enough”, Euobserver, April 1, 2020.
- If Israel were to be involved, by creating
peaceful research and commercial links with Carafano, James Jay and Brzezinski, Ian: “We need a US-
Israel. European Recovery Program”, The Hill, April 13, 2020.
What needs to be done to make this dream
become a reality? First, the European OECD Economic Outlook, June 2020.
renewable energy industry has to realize the
long-term opportunities of teaming up with Global Economic Prospects, World Bank, 2020.
Mediterranean partners. Second the European
Commission has to back such a cooperative Wolf, Martin: “The EU rises to meet the Covid-19 crisis”,
Financial Times, June 3, 2020, p. 17.
approach by offering adequate political and
financial support. It should play the catalyst United Nations, (2019), World Population Prospects 2019:
role in bringing the two sides together. This
is a long-term venture, but the post Covid-19 ZEI Discussion Paper C 258/2020
job creation moment offers a context within
which such an endeavour should be launched. In this paper, ZEI Alumni from the region,
representing a wide range of emerging leaders, express
The longer-term objective of an enhanced their frustration, but even more their expectation:
political dialogue between the EU and the The new EU leadership must complete the unfinished
Mediterranean world should be to foster agenda of EU enlargement in the next few years
a more conducive political and economic should the EU not be blamed for loosing the youth of
environment within which a cooperative the Western Balkans.
security dialogue takes shape. The Covid-19
crisis has forced everyone to reflect seriously on
what type of sustainable well-being modality
of development is necessary in a world of eight
billion people. The Euro-Mediterranean area
must devise its own regional post Covid-19
security strategy if it is to emerge stronger in the
new world reorder of the twenty first century.
Prof. Stephen Calleya Ph.D.(Warw.) is
a ZEI Senior Fellow and Director of the
Mediterranean Academy of Diplomatic Studies
(MEDAC), University of Malta.
4 Future of Europe Observer Vol. 8 No. 3 November 2020
What is to be Done to Reactivate the outbreak of the pandemic, the damage induced
Economy on Both Sides of the Med? by Covid-19 can be observed more tangibly in
Italy’s agricultural economic sector. Coldiretti,
T he ongoing Covid-19 pandemic continues
to threaten the economies, health, and so-
cieties of countries worldwide. For the Mediter-
Italy’s largest agricultural association, has said
that 27 per cent of the labor required to harvest
Italy’s seasonal crops was covered by a seasonal
ranean region, the fight against the pandemic foreign workforce and thus the imposed mobi-
has proved to be an especially challenging one. lity restrictions endanger the state’s production
This is true for both the Southern and Eastern rate. This may cause a dangerous domino effect,
shores of the Mediterranean, where the batt- as Italy is a key player in the Global Value Chain.
le has been fought with a limited amount of
economic support as well as limited access to The economic impact on the Southern and Eas-
healthcare. In March and April, the Northern tern regions of the Mediterranean was even
region of the Mediterranean experienced the more significant due to other pre-existing fac-
second largest outbreak of the disease, before tors, namely the socio-political conflicts and
any aid measures were established by the Eu- the lack of strong economies. On the surface,
ropean Union. This article will first provide an if one looks at the cases of Lebanon, Algeria, or
overview of the economic impact of the Coro- Jordan, it can be observed that these states have
navirus in the Northern, Eastern and Southern gradually restarted their economic activity from
regions of the Mediterranean. To conclude, May onwards. In the case of Jordan, all restric-
this piece will discuss the possible prescrip- tions have been lifted. The reason for this has
tions that could remedy the damage incur- not been the eradication of the virus though. It
red on the economies of the Mediterranean. is because in middle-income countries that also
have very high youth unemployment rates, such
Covid-19 has had a significant impact on all as Algeria, whose under-30 age group comprises
parts of the Mediterranean. In Italy and Spain, 70 per cent of the total population, 25 per cent
the Coronavirus exposed a glaring weakness of of whom are unemployed (Bouandel 2020), can-
the existing European economic system when it not afford to keep their economies shut for an
comes to dealing with emergencies. The system extended period of time. Despite the reopening
in question is the Just-In-Time (JIT) inventory of economies, the United Nations Economic
system (Caroline Banton 2020), which sees a and Social Commission for Western Asia (ESC-
producer, in this case a state, order an amount WA) has estimated that Arab countries could
of raw material that matches production sche- stand to lose 1.7 million jobs this year as well
dules. This meant that when states began impo- as a 42 billion dollar loss in the region’s GDP.
sing various restrictions in the hope of mitiga-
ting the virus, the chemical and medical equip- It is now evident that the economic impact
ment manufacturers were unable to match the has been significant across all parts of the Me-
hike in demand (Constantin Tsakas 2020). diterranean. It is thus important to analyze
primarily the possible remedies that could re-
Northern Mediterranean countries have also activate the economies of the region and the
experienced economic troubles because of the responses that governments have made in the
unpreparedness of their healthcare system and form of aid packages to help economies recover.
their large debts. In the case of Northern Italy,
where the healthcare system received 8.84 per Rebooting Mediterranean economies must
cent of GDP in 2017, the exponential rate of in- account for climate change. This is a cru-
fections and thus the rising demand for intensi- cial point as the Mediterranean basin is wit-
ve-care beds led to a system collapse (Sara Ronco ness to a 20 per cent higher rate of warming
2020). Furthermore, Covid-19 hit Italy at a time than the global average. The link between se-
when the Debt/GDP ratio stood high, specifi- cond economic policy and climate change can
cally at 134.8 per cent in 2018 (Eurostat 2020). now serve as an opportunity for economies
Prometeia predicts that this rate will grow to to be restructured in such a way that mitiga-
150 per cent by the end of 2020. Even though tes environmental pollution and thus avoid
a steady trend of economic improvement could potential future crises (Nasser Kamel 2020).
be observed in Italy in the lead-up years to the The path to recovery is two-fold: the short-
Vol. 8 No. 3 November 2020 Future of Europe Observer 5
I. Socio-Economic Impacts
term and the long-term measures. The short- The Covid-19 Pandemic and the Water
term consists of solidarity funds that govern-
ments should use to aid companies that have Sector in the Mediterranean
been impacted by Covid-19. At the end of the
pandemic, it would also be wise for govern-
ments to establish a financial aid plan for
W ater supply in the Mediterranean has
remained a point of high concern and
contention throughout recent decades. The
small businesses (Constantin Tsakas 2020) gi- ongoing Covid-19 pandemic however has ex-
ven the fact that a large portion of the Medi- acerbated the situation, renewing the urgency
terranean receives its income from this SME for a more collective approach to be adopted
sector. In the long-term, states must unveil re- by the concerned states and the creation of ef-
construction plans with realistic funding esti- fective policies which go beyond policy papers.
mates that account for all the aforementioned
factors that have plagued the Mediterranean. Analyzing why exactly water is such an im-
portant resource for the Mediterranean may
The responsibility for this lies in large part with at first seem unnecessary, considering the ba-
central banks, which must play the their crisis- sic fact that it is the essence of life all over the
mitigating role. This is already being done to a planet. However, further research shows how
large extent, for example in Tunisia, whose cen- truly particular to the region some aspects are.
tral bank has already injected 9.9 billion dinars The Mediterranean region is currently experi-
to aid its banks’ quantifiable liquidity. However, encing an average warming rate which is 20 per
it is not only central banks that have to play cent greater than the rest of the world (“Medi-
their social role – private banks must priori- terranean Countries Share Water Emergency
tize their social responsibility through means and Recovery Plans to Tackle the Aftermath of
such as loan postponements/furlough and rela- COVID-19 - Union for The Mediterranean –
xing their requirements for private businesses UfM”, 2020) meaning also that the region is fa-
to take out loans. Such measures would allow cing the mounting repercussions of global war-
for a win-win situation, where the private bank ming more than any other area in the world.
helps its society at no expense to its own busi- Amongst these are effects directly threatening
ness. Lastly, repayment schemes and debt relief the already limited and unevenly-distributed
plans must be considered for the poorer states water resources of the region, such as “reduc-
in the region, of which there is a considerab- tions in average annual precipitation, increa-
le amount. Development Finance Institutions sed variability in the frequency and intensi-
(DFIs) will have to be consulted and adhered ty of precipitation events, increased average
to, to ensure recovery a plan being successful. temperatures that result in higher evaporation
from dams and reservoirs, and increased ur-
Ultimately, the path to recovery will be com- ban and irrigation water demands.” (Ferragina
plex and needs to rely on cooperation as the 2009). As highlighted at the 2011 Bonn Con-
simple but key principle across the Mediterra- ference, water security is one of three main
nean. Regional projects must continue to de- pillars, along with food and energy security,
velop and furthermore bring together actors which are all deeply interrelated (Hoff 2011).
from the EU to realize a full recovery. Coope- Thus, with a threatened water supply, the Me-
ration strategies regarding healthcare, tou- diterranean region is risking problems in other
rism, governance, renewable energies, trade, linked essential sectors and at a disadvantage
fiscal measures, and technological develop- in the process of building a green economy
ment must be enacted for economic growth to (Hoff 2011). Notwithstanding the natural set-
come about. What better time could there be backs, various Mediterranean states have been
for acting on a long held intent than during a and still are building stronger and more diver-
pandemic when all parties need it the most? sified economies. As the number and dimensi-
Dmytro Nikitin is a MEDAC Master Fellow on of industries increased, so did the demand
“Class of 2020“. for water. Amongst the most popular sectors
are in fact productive industries such as agri-
culture and manufacturing, tourism also de-
pends on an ample and reliable water supply.
6 Future of Europe Observer Vol. 8 No. 3 November 2020
As a result, 3 out of 4 jobs in the Mediterranean vid-19 virus were discovered in wastewater
region are water-dependent (“Mediterranean treatment plants. This uncertainty is especially
countries share water emergency and recove- damaging for various crucial Mediterranean in-
ry plans to tackle the aftermath of COVID-19” dustries which rely on considerable amounts of
- Union for the Mediterranean - UfM 2020). treated water to sustain their activities, such as
agriculture (“World Environment Day 2020, A
Globally, the Covid-19 pandemic has been a Time to Think the Way Forward”, UfM 2020).
great equalizer. Engulfing the whole world in a
matter of few weeks, it has brought countries of As the saying goes, “one does not know the value
all kind – big or small, coastal or landlocked - of the water till the well runs dry”, and indeed the
on a common platform. Paradoxically however, direct effects of the pandemic on the Mediter-
whilst highlighting vulnerability and thus the ranean water supply have also helped push this
need for a more collective and collaborative plan long-standing issue further up political agendas.
of action on all common issues- the pandemic Although there has long been knowledge of the
has also made already-present socio-demogra- limited availability and uneven distribution of
phic divisions become even more pronounced. water resources in the Mediterranean, this new
In the midst of the pandemic, perhaps very few and unexpected shared obstacle is currently
of the people living on the Northern and Wes- serving as a source of renewed vigor for collec-
tern shores of the Mediterranean worried about tive initiatives to better manage the water sector
water supply. National and social concerns in in the Mediterranean region. The Union for the
these areas were instead much more focused Mediterranean (UfM) in particular has been on
on the availability of specialized treatments and the forefront of leading such initiatives, building
equipment to combat this novel virus. On the on its “Water Agenda”- a proof of its recogniti-
other hand, due to a naturally-occurring imba- on of water management as a crucial issue, glo-
lance of natural water sources in Mediterrane- bally, but also especially for the Mediterranean.
an Southern and Eastern states, Tunisia, Libya, Right at the beginning of June, a meeting with
Egypt, Lebanon, Jordan and Syria were already more than 100 participants from 21 different
experiencing water scarcity at differing levels, countries representing more than 30 regional
before the pandemic, and are thus more pro- expert organizations met, which reaffirmed the
ne to water shortages during the health emer- need for collaboration and reminded the par-
gency as demand for water grew. Indeed, over ticipants to “maintain a focus on meeting the
24 million people in the Mediterranean Arab Sustainable Development Goals (SDGs) and
countries do not have access to soap and wa- not jeopardise the progress made over the last
ter to wash their hands as recommended by the decades” in their efforts to rebound from the
general guidelines (ESCWA, “Moving towards impacts of this pandemic (“Ufm Water Agen-
Water Security in the Arab Region”, 2019). da: Looking For Responses To The COVID-19
Other countries have also experienced such Crisis And Challenges”, UfM 2020). Malta will
shortages, such as Turkey, whilst various coun- soon be hosting the 4th Mediterranean Water
tries have had to reroute substantial amounts of Forum, which is to serve as preparation for
water to combat this emergency (“World Envi- the 9th World Water Forum in Dakar in 2021.
ronment Day 2020, A Time to Think the Way
Forward”, UfM 2020). In this way, the Mediter- The ongoing pandemic should be viewed as
ranean can be regarded as a microcosm of the an ideal opportunity to re-examine, from their
world, where different sociodemographic stan- foundations upwards, the way our economies
dings contributed to different levels of efficacy and societies work. In this process, water se-
in tackling this global health emergency. Such curity should take prominence. Through both
shortages are also especially threatening as wa- national and trans-border dialogue and nego-
ter is an essential resource for development, tiation, as exemplified in the mentioned initia-
and thus its absence contributes to wider “so- tives, new ideas on how a better paradigm is to
cial and territorial imbalances in the Mediter- be built can be conceived and shared. The es-
ranean” (Scoullos and Ferragina 2010). Apart sential goal is to ensure the provision of water
from water scarcity, the safety of water has also as a basic commodity for everyone around the
been put into question after traces of the Co- Mediterranean shores and not only as a luxu-
ry to be enjoyed by those well-positioned. This
Vol. 8 No. 3 November 2020 Future of Europe Observer 7
II. Mask Diplomacy and Risks to the Rule of Law
would enable social progress through “poverty The Perception of China in the
eradication, peacekeeping, progress in human Mediterranean during Covid-19: The
development, gender equity, and the safegu-
arding of public health” (Ferragina 2010). Of cases of Italy and Greece
course this change also necessitates the sup-
port of private and government funds (Nikol
2020) to benefit from and spur new scientific
C ovid-19 brought the world to a standstill. It
also affected the world order, as the rising
power China got an opportunity to improve its
and technological solutions (Ferragina 2010). image by helping vulnerable countries in need
Moreover, a principal change that needs to take of medical assistance to cope with the pande-
place is indeed within the minds of us all- in mic. While the US President Donald Trump
recognizing that we all have the power to con- was busy accusing China of being responsib-
tribute, with even the smallest of our everyday le for the spread of the pandemic and calling
actions, in lessening water wastage and encou- Covid-19 the “Chinese Virus”, China was busy
raging its better use and a more even distribu- building its image and strengthening its rela-
tion around the Mediterranean and beyond. tions with countries hit hard by the virus. Chi-
Paradoxically, whilst demanding isola- na, on the one hand, adopted a more assertive
tion, the Covid-19 pandemic has also in mode in its neighborhood while, on the other
many ways served as a wake-up call to re- hand, it showed friendliness to countries in dif-
mind us that we do not live in isolation. Each ferent parts of the world including EU mem-
choice we as individuals or our governments ber states through its health diplomacy. This
as our representatives make, is intimately article analyzes China’s perception in the Me-
linked to our planet and humanity’s welfare. diterranean during the Covid-19 pandemic
and focuses on the cases of Italy and Greece.
Amy Briffa is a MEDAC Master Fellow “Class of 2020“.
Two Sides of China during the Pandemic:
List of references
Mask Diplomacy and Wolf Warrior
Ferragina, Eugenia: “The Water Issue in the Mediterranean”
in „Environmental and Sustainable Development in the
Diplomacy
Mediterranean”, IEMed 2010.
During the Covid-19 pandemic, China experts
Hoff, Holger: “Bonn2011 Conference- The Water, Energy
and Food Security Nexus Solutions for the Green Economy could observe two sides of China’s diplomacy.
16th to 18th of November 2011- Conference Synopsis”, http://
www.emwis.org/thematicdirs/events/2011/11/bonn-2011-
Mask diplomacy was the term given to China’s
water-energy-and-food-security-nexus-solutions-green- diplomatic efforts to improve its image as a re-
economy. sponsible global leader. In March, the epicenter
Union for the Mediterranean: “World Environment Day
2020, time to think the way forward”, 5 June 2020, UfM
of the pandemic shifted from China to the rest
Secretariat, https://ufmsecretariat.org/world-environment- of the world, particularly to the US and Euro-
day-2020/. pe. In order to show a friendly side, China star-
Union for the Mediterranean: “Mediterranean countries ted its mask diplomacy by providing medical
share water emergency and recovery plans to tackle the
aftermath of COVID-19”, 6th of May 2020, UfM Secretariat, supplies along with sending its medical teams
https://ufmsecretariat.org/mediterranean-countries- to countries, including Italy, fighting the Co-
share-water-emergency-and-recovery-plans-to-tackle-the-
aftermath-of-covid-19/. vid-19. Contrary to this, China has also been
Union for the Mediterranean: “UfM Water Agenda: looking very aggressive during this pandemic. The as-
for responses to COVID-19 crisis and challenges in the sertiveness has been dubbed as ‘Wolf Warrior
Mediterranean region”, 9th to the 10th of June 2020, UfM
Secretariat, https://ufmsecretariat.org/ufm-water-agenda- Diplomacy’ where Chinese officials directly hit
responses-covid-19/. back using social media platforms at any cri-
Nicol, Alan: “The Pandemic Is Laying Bare A Global Water ticism against the ruling Communist party of
Crisis”, Foreign Policy, 12th of May 2020, Accessed on:
https://foreignpolicy.com/2020/05/12/coronavirus-pandemic- China or the state itself. There have been many
global-water-crisis/.
targets ranging from media to political targets
Scoullos, Michael, and Eugenia, Ferragina: “Environmental of China’s Wolf Warrior Diplomacy. Beijing’s
And Sustainable Development In The Mediterranean-
10 Papers For Barcelona 2010”, https://www.iemed.org/ ambassador to Stockholm assertively said, “We
observatori/arees-danalisi/arxius-adjunts/10-papers-
for-barcelona-2010/8-environmental-and-sustainable- treat our friends with fine wine, but for our
development-in-the-mediterranean/10papers8.pdf. enemies we have shotguns.” (The Economist, Fe-
8 Future of Europe Observer Vol. 8 No. 3 November 2020ZEI Europe Dialogue with then EU Commissioner Christos Stylianides
First-hand insights on current EU politics: ZEI had the great pleasure of welcoming then EU Commissioner
Christos Stylianides from Cyprus on 11 October 2019. Our Master Fellows, resident and visiting researchers as
well as alumni used this unique opportunity to discuss pressing global issues such as the EU‘s role in mitigating
the humanitarian consequences of the Syrian Civil War and the Union‘s disease control initiatives. After deli-
vering a passionate speech on the need for multilateralism, the Commissioner furthermore provided ZEI with
valuable background knowledge on how the European Commission‘s external policies actually work. To learn
more about the field of humanitarian aid and crisis management, have a look at Commissioner Stylianides‘s ZEI
Discussion Paper, which is available online: https://tinyurl.com/yywzr3xn
bruary 20, 2020) This sums up a shift in China’s aggressive stances by China’s ministry of For-
diplomacy towards assertiveness. Simultane- eign Affairs. He said, “It is the pervasiveness of
ously, China has not left any stone unturned to an attitude that does not purvey the will to crea-
improve its image as a responsible global lea- te partnerships, but the will to tell people what
der and mask diplomacy is part of such efforts. to do,” rather than any single act responsible for
the breakdown of relations. In part for fear of
Changing Perception of EU-China Relations retribution, European officials are traditionally
This was supposed to be the year of Europe-Chi- less willing to openly criticize China. Never-
na diplomacy with a series of high-level sum- theless, politicians in Brussels, Paris and Berlin
mits concluding with President Xi Jinping’s visit have expressed concerns over transparency in
to Germany. Europeans are cautious of of a da- China’s narrative of Covid-19, leading towards
maging rift with China. There has been moun- a deeper anger with potentially wide-ranging
ting anger over the behavior of China during consequences. EU member states are already
the Covid-19 pandemic as observed during the working on policies to lessen dependence on
diplomatic talks. As a result, just when China China along with keeping a check on potential
had an opportunity to demonstrate global lea- predatory Chinese investments, measures that
dership, as it tried through its mask diplomacy, could hurt EU-China trade worth approximate-
its pandemic crisis management eroded trust. ly 750 billion dollar in 2019 (Crawford & Mar-
Reinhard Bütikofer, a German Green Party la- tin, 2020). Thus, EU-China relations are not at
wmaker, who chairs the European Parliament’s their best currently. In contrast and despite con-
delegation for relations with China, said that cerns expressed by the EU politicians, China’s
China has lost Europe over recent months. He perception in the Mediterranean, particularly
alluded to concerns over China’s management in Greece and Italy, remains generally positive.
of the truth in the early stages of the pandemic The Perception of China in Italy
and to the hard line propaganda highlighting
the Chinese Communist party’s rule over de- Bilateral relations between Italy and China en-
mocracy. He also cited concerns over extremely tered into a new phase when Italy became the
Vol. 8 No. 3 November 2020 Future of Europe Observer 9II. Mask Diplomacy and Risks to the Rule of Law
first G7 country to join China’s Belt and Road negative image in Europe, which is based on
Initiative (BRI) after signing a Memorandum of the fact that the outbreak originated in China,
Understanding (MoU) in March, 2019. Italy’s China is propping up its soft-power through
joining of the BRI brought in high expecta- health diplomacy. Secondly, China’s better re-
tions along with critique and support, in terms lations with Italy will provide it an opportunity
of cultural, economic and financial fallout. In to regain momentum for BRI-linked projects
August 2019, the political landscape in Italy which are yet to be fully developed. For ex-
was completely redefined after a crisis hit Nort- ample, the port of Genoa and Trieste could be
hern League/Five Star Movement coalition was crucial for China’s Maritime Silk Road, while
leading the Italian government. By the rap- China’s Digital Silk Road will get a new impe-
prochement with Beijing, the relationship bet- tus by introducing 5G in Italy (Russo, 2020).
ween Rome and Brussels and generally Rome’s Therefore, Italy holds a strong significance for
friendship with Washington were put under China’s geoeconomics in the European Uni-
stress. Despite the fact that these factors cons- on. Italy’s friendliness towards China will pro-
tituted a well-known challenge, their relevance vide China with an impetus to leave its foot-
and complexity were more apparent after the steps in the Mediterranean as well as in the EU.
outbreak of Covid-19 pandemic (Russo, 2020). Perception of China in Greece
According to China Mediterranean website , a Diplomatic relations between Greece and Chi-
University of Torino research platform promo- na date back to the 1970s. However, since 2006,
ted by Torino World Affairs Institute, , Italy was relations between the two have upgraded to
probably the only country in Southern Europe a Strategic Partnership, aspiring to maintain
where Chinese “Mask Diplomacy” proved to mutually beneficial and multi-level coopera-
be effective despite accusations against China’s tion (Greece MOFA). Moreover, Greece is the
conduct as being cynical. In a recent poll car- latest country to be part of China’s “16+1” co-
ried out by the SWG polling company, China operation making it “17+1”, which China views
is ranked first by the Italians as the friendliest as a ‘win-win’ situation for all countries parti-
country. Between 2019 and 2020, positive opi- cipating in the initiative and also for the EU.
nion grew by 42 per cent (from 12 percentage However, opposing voices consider it China’s
points to 52 percentage points). Furthermo- divide and rule strategy that will only bene-
re, according to poll results, 36 per cent of the fit China at the cost of the European Union.
correspondents believe that in the future, Ita-
ly should align with China while 30 per cent The Covid-19 pandemic has cemented the Chi-
of correspondents favor a close relationship
with the US. To some extent, credit for such
public support in favor of China should be gi- Mediterranean Academy of Diplomatic Studies
(MEDAC)
ven to the media reports during President Xi
Jinping’s visit to Italy in 2019 and also to the
fact that more media coverage was given to
the Chinese medical aid than American aid.
The perception of China among the ruling par- Towards
ty of Italy is positive. However, the Democratic A Post Pandemic
Party of Italy is apprehensive towards China’s Euro-Mediterranean
Strategy
mask diplomacy and considers it as China’s
gimmick to divide the west. Senator Alessan-
dro Alfieri argues that the geopolitical focus of
Italy should remain with the European Union
and the Atlantic Alliance. Many of Alfieri’s col-
leagues in Italy’s Democratic Party believe that Edited by Professor Stephen Calleya
China has two main goals to achieve in its re- Med Agenda
MEDAC Publications in Mediterranean IR and Diplomacy
lations with Italy. Firstly, in order to counter its
10 Future of Europe Observer Vol. 8 No. 3 November 2020na-Greece relationship. The Greek government List of references
immediately expressed its sympathy after the
outbreak of pandemic in Wuhan, China. The
Greeks were more concerned to defeat the pan- China’s Coronavirus Diplomacy Has Finally
demic at home rather than engaging in a blame Pushed Europe Too Far.” Japan Times,
game. In a similar context, Sino-Greek coopera- April 23, 2020. https://www.japantimes.
tion has remained positive as criticism of Chi- co.jp/news/2020/04/22/asia-pacific/politics-
na only appeared in the international section of diplomacy-asia-pacific/china-coronavirus-
the news. China also provided medical aid to diplomacy-europe/.
Greece when the pandemic arrived there. Du- Crawford, Alan, and Peter Martin. “China‘s
ring that time, Chinese Ambassador to Greece, Coronavirus Diplomacy Has Finally Pushed
Zhang Qiyue, wrote an op-ed titled, “The Single Europe Too Far .” The Nation Thailand, April
Soul of Empathy in our Bodies” in which the 23, 2020. https://www.nationthailand.com/
ambassador eulogized China-Greek relations news/30386584?utm_source=homepage&utm_
(Tzogopoulos, 2020). Moreover, perception of medium=internal_referral.
China among the Greeks is generally positive. Greece MOFA. “China.” Hellenic Republic
According to China Mediterranean website, a Ministry of Foreign Affairs , 2020. https://www.
University of Torino research platform promo- mfa.gr/en/blog/greece-bilateral-relations/china/.
ted by Torino World Affairs Institute, 43 per
cent of poll correspondents put China among Russo, Federica. “How Covid-19 Could Reshape
the winners of the current situation. Moreover, the Italy-China Relationship.” Asia Power
despite the decrease in President Xi’s popula- Watch, May 1, 2020. https://asiapowerwatch.
rity by 16 per cent to 37 per cent, he still re- com/how-covid-19-could-reshape-the-italy-
mains more popular than US President Donald china-relationship/.
Trump and German Chancellor Angela Mer- The Economist. “How Sweden Copes with Chinese
kel. These trends delineate positive perceptions Bullying.” The Economist , February 20, 2020.
of China despite the polls showing that 44 per https://www.economist.com/europe/2020/02/20/
cent of the Greeks believe that China is respon- how-sweden-copes-with-chinese-bullying.
sible for the Covid-19 spread, which is slightly “The Mediterranean Region Looks at China.”
more than the 39 per cent who do not consi- China Mediterranean , April 2020. https://www.
der it a man-made virus. Thus, China holds chinamed.it/observer/april-2020-2021.
a strong influence in Greece despite strong
opposing voices across the Atlantic alliance. Tzogopoulos, George N. “Greece External
Relations Briefing: Greece and China during the
Conclusion COVID-19 Pandemic.” China-CEE Institute 28,
The perception of China in Italy and Greece is no. 4 (2020).
generally positive. For China, its health diplo- “When Italians Prefer China to the US (and
macy bears fruitful results in the Mediterranean. the EU).” Formiche.net, April 21, 2020. https://
Positive relations with Italy and Greece provide formiche.net/2020/04/italiani-preferiscono-
China with strong ties within the European Uni- cina-usa-ue/.
on. Despite President Trump’s rhetoric against
China, the perception of China has not been af-
fected much across the world. China’s diploma-
tic efforts, dubbed mask diplomacy, bore fruits
for its positive image particularly in Italy and
Greece, which will help China promote its BRI
within the region. However, the pandemic is not
yet over and it is yet to be observed how Chi-
na will be perceived in a post-Covid-19 world.
Muhammad Murad is a ZEI Master Fellow
“Class of 2020”.
Vol. 8 No. 3 November 2020 Future of Europe Observer 11II. Mask Diplomacy and Risks to the Rule of Law
The Democratic Toll of Strong Anti- Civil protection: The rule of law or emergency
Pandemic Measures: The Case of clause
Montenegro Among the first critics of the government’s
actions were accusations, made by the
S ince the outbreak of the Covid-19 pandemic,
we have witnessed different emergency
concepts and unprecedented efforts of countries
opposition that the government was abusing
the situation to act without democratic checks
and balances. At the center of debate was
to contain the spread and to revive their the absence of parliamentary sessions in the
economies. One of the emerging phenomena first weeks of the pandemic, as well as the
was the restoration of strong governments in establishment of the national coordination
the century of liberalism. Even without an in- body for containing the spread of virus
depth analysis we can observe the side effects (NKT), which was considered to have been
have led to even greater disruption of the legacy created unconstitutionally, as there was no
of liberalism: The respect of fundamental rights consultation of the parliament. The second
and the rule of law. In the second quarter point of dispute was the exclusive right to put
of the year 2020 the epicenter of pandemic in place a range of measures and post-corona
moved towards the Mediterranean and recently development strategies that was delegated to
more precisely to Balkans, the same concerns this body, with no procedure of ratification
occurred in these countries. or parliamentary agreement as required, but
The case of Montenegro, a small-size country rather a communication through reports of so
in the Mediterranean that is also a candidate far accomplished results. The additional doubts
country to European Union, could serve as were related to the composition of this body, it
a good example of how some government was said to be political as only pro government
responses and emergency concepts were and politically eligible experts were involved,
problematized and criticized as inappropriate followed by criticism of NKT statements that
and unnecessary amongst the democratic were seen as having political content, targeting
population. The question of sacrificing opposition parties and influencing other
democracy for the sake of public health and institutions and branches of power, thus going
for the purpose of absolute supremacy in beyond the scope of the envisaged duties. The
controlling every aspect of peoples’ lives, arose exclusive right of assessing necessary measures
as dominant. and using the financial funds during the whole
period also stayed with the NKT, which on
During the first two months of the pandemic in the other hand offered periodical reports on
Montenegro, the government seemed to follow spending and donations to public. The cases for
the path of the Western European countries by the assessment of its legality and legitimacy at
closing borders, putting restrictions on social the moment are still before the Constitutional
gatherings and distancing rules, in some cases Court. Nevertheless, the government would
even further precautions like prohibiting inter- have had the right to take full control over
city transportation and introducing periodical the situation, if it had declared a state of
curfews. The fears of people, due to a poorly emergency, which was not the case due to a lack
evaluated health care system, ranking the of constitutionally required conditions.
country among the lowest in the Europe, the Respect of fundamental rights: Freedom
government managed to compensate with a of speech and right to privacy during the
firm and immediate response that managed to pandemic
slow down the expansion of virus for a certain
period of time. However, some government As many measures were necessarily restricting
moves have been severely criticized by NGOs fundamental rights to some extent, the possible
working on democracy development and abuse and unjustified limitation of the same,
monitoring of the protection of human rights can be assessed based on the statement on the
and the rule of law. processing of personal data in the context of
the Covid-19 outbreak of the European Union,
published on the 19th of March 2020. Many
NGOs in Montenegro used the statement and
prescribed tests of proportionality, necessity
12 Future of Europe Observer Vol. 8 No. 3 November 2020and appropriateness of measures to accuse been hit the hardest and will require the longest
the government of an actual abuse. The recovery period. In the case of Montenegro the
most frequently discussed measure was the estimated drop in GDP of nearly 9 per cent in
publication of names and addresses of people 2020, the country will need a period of 2-3 years
that returned from abroad and were forced to rebound to the pre-pandemic GDP level.
to be self-isolated for 14 days (later extended Due to solidarity of many countries and
to 28 days) with the explanation of societal especially the European Union, a large amount
surveillance of disobedient neighbors. Here, of money and equipment was donated,
numerous fundamental human rights (right but also due to huge loans from the IMF
on privacy and protection of family life …..) (emergency loan worth 83.7 million dollar
were violated and the violation was praised under the IMF’s Rapid Financing Instrument)
by the government. It was also considered the government was able to meet the loss in
to be supportive of more worrying acts that tourism revenue and a necessary increase
occurred, like a leaking of the list of infected in government’s expenditures to fight the
people, exposing them to many threats, along pandemic. Nevertheless, further recovery still
with a creation of an app that could detect depends on very unpredictable indicators, such
the distance of those people that were on as: The rate of new infections, the relaxation of
the mentioned lists. These subsequent acts containment measures in countries where the
were criticized but the publication of the majority of tourists come from, the medical
initial list was still praised as necessary and advancement of treatments, and the dent to
efficient by the government. Furthermore, disposable incomes globally.
the inconsistency of the penalties for people
that broke the measures, brought concerns of The situation remains unpredictable and many
inproportionate and selective enforcement. concerns have not been properly resolved
Together with apprehending people for by the Constitutional Court of Montenegro,
spreading misinformation and imprisoning it is unforeseeable how the developments of
them, these actions were condemned by NGOs pandemic and new future elections would
and foreign embassies, as disproportionate and affect a future government’s actions and further
a threat to freedom of speech, thus spreading implications on democracy and human rights.
people‘s fear of sharing their opinion in public What stays, as a concrete concern, is a lack of
and criticizing of the government. The number critical thinking and the low level of democratic
of cases and such responses by the government awareness of people that could result in further
and of state prosecutors, still represent a major violations of human rights.
concern among human rights observers in Milena Perosevic is a ZEI Master Fellow “Class
Montenegro. of 2020”.
As soon as the number of infected hit zero, List of references
after two months, many of these actions
became irrelevant and an assessment of their Kajosevic, Samir: Montenegro Govt Accused of Flouting
implications for democracy was unnecessary Constitution Amid Crisis, Balkan Insight, 31st of March
for the general population. Controversial 2020, https://balkaninsight.com/2020/03/31/montenegro-
measures and rigid rules were rather accepted govt-accused-of-flouting-constitution-amid-crisis/.
and unconditionally supported by majority. Human Rights Action: Report: Monitoring Freedom of Ex-
This also puts a doubt on the quality of political pression & the Right to Privacy during COVID-19 Outbreak,
culture and human rights protection awareness 19th of July 2020, https://www.hraction.org/2020/07/19/
of a society as a whole. Though the justification monitoring-freedom-of-expression-right-to-privacy-during-
covid-19-outbreak/?lang=en.
came along with results, the measures actually Mooi, Yen Nian: Combating the Impact of COVID-19 in
proved to be unsustainable, as the economy Montenegro, International Monetary Fund, 2nd of July
hit the bottom and every economic analysis 2020, https://www.imf.org/en/News/Articles/2020/07/02/
showed the dramatic consequences due to a na070220-combating-the-impact-of-covid-19-in-monteneg-
collapse of tourism (accounting for about a ro.
fifth of the whole economy) and the fact that Uljarević, Daliborka; Milaš, Tamara; Nikočević, Damir:
necessary reopening of borders led to a return Crna Gora Ikorona: Stanje nacije u prvih šest sedmica, Cen-
of the virus. As estimated by the IMF, tourism- tre for Civic Education (CGO), April 2020, http://media.cgo-
dependent countries like Montenegro, have cce.org/2020/04/Crna-Gora-i-korona.pdf.
Vol. 8 No. 3 November 2020 Future of Europe Observer 13III. Post-Pandemic Conflicts = Pre-Pandemic Conflicts?
Implications of Covid-19 on Security (especially in Egypt and Algeria), although
Sector Reform: Perspectives from the some progress has been registered in Tunisia
and possibly to some extent in Morocco.
MENA region
The fact that most MENA countries securitized
I t is evident that the health emergency has
been securitized across the globe (see for
example Krasna 2020)). Consequently, as
their response to the pandemic and relied
heavily on the security sector will further affect
the SSR agenda in the region. This dependence
Trenkov-Wermuth argues, “(t)he coronavirus on the security sector has not always resulted
pandemic will have long-lasting repercussions in proportional responses, and in some cases
for governance, justice, and security” (Trenkov- granted special powers to the state security
Wermuth 2020). The question about what providers. To give an example, in Egypt, the
impact such developments have on security health emergency has been used by the regime
sector reform (SSR) in the MENA region will to put into place legislative amendments,
be raised in this essay. which will give additional sweeping powers
This essay applies a “whole of society” to President Abd al-Fattah al-Sisi and security
approach to Security Sector Reform (SSR), agencies, without a time-horizon for their
which includes state security providers and withdrawal.
state justice providers; non-state security MENA countries quickly enacted
providers and non-state justice providers; extraordinary legal measures and declarations
oversight and management bodies as well of states of emergencies. MENA states have
as public and civil society oversight bodies had a long history of using and abusing such
(Bryden / Chappui 2016, 6). However, it focuses measures. Algeria was under emergency rules
on state security providers and civil society for some 20 years, and Egypt for even longer
actors and in particular their empowerment (Human Rights Watch 2020). Even Tunisia has
(or disempowerment). A broad understanding been under a state of emergency since 2015,
of the security sector leads towards a broad following a terrorist attack.
understanding of SSR as the process through
which a society seeks to review and/or enhance Civil society actors such as civil society
the effectiveness and the accountability of its organizations, but also protest movements
security and justice providers. ZEI-MEDAC Workshops
An analysis put forward by the Geneva The cooperation between ZEI and MEDAC dates
Centre for the Democratic Control of Armed back to the origins of both institutions in the late
Forces (DCAF) on the pandemic responses of 1990s. Since 2010, ZEI and MEDAC hold annual
66 countries concludes that the less a political workshops in Bonn on the most burning issues of the
culture is open to civilian participation in Mediterranean agenda including as asylum, economic
decision-making and accountability, the more and security policies. The workshops bring together
likely it is to allow for indefinite emergencies ZEI Master Fellows with young diplomats studying at
and disproportionate securitization with MEDAC.
military personnel assuming control of the
decision-making process. (DCAF 2020, 17)
Ultimately, these findings imply that states that
have problems in the realm of SSR are likely to
exacerbate those with the type of response that
they assume to the pandemic situation. This
is certainly also the case in the MENA region
where the hope of advancing SSR measures
ignited by the Arab Spring events in 2011 has
largely given way to disillusionment. Since
the Arab Spring events, SSR efforts have been
undermined by conflict (especially in Syria
and Libya) and resurgence of military rule
14 Future of Europe Observer Vol. 8 No. 3 November 2020You can also read
