Global Analyst & Investor Day 2021 - January 5, 2021 - AKBANK | INVESTOR ...
←
→
Page content transcription
If your browser does not render page correctly, please read the page content below
Global Analyst & Investor Day 2021 January 5, 2021
Content
01 Operating Environment
02 2020 Wrap-up
03 2021 Guidance
04 Digital Transformation
05 Sustainability Approach
2
Turkish Economy: 2020 Overview & 2021 Outlook
GDP Growth Current Account Balance
(YoY, %) (USD, bn)
6.7 Recovery to accelerate in 2H21 Milder trend in 2H21
4.5 4.0
1.0
1.2
-11.0
-18.0
-27.5
-37.5
-9.9
1Q20 2Q20 3Q20 2020E 2021F 1Q20(1) 2Q20(1) 3Q20(1) 2020E 2021F
Inflation Policy Rate
(YoY, %) Decelerate after peak (1 Week Repo Rate) Gradual decline
in Apr’21 expected in 2H21
17% 18%
15% 15%
14% 12%
12% 8%
10% 5%
Jan’20 Apr’20 Jul’20 Oct’20 Jan’21 Apr’21 Jul’21 Oct’21 Dec’21 Jan’20 Apr’20 Jul’20 Oct’20 Jan’21 Apr’21 Jul’21 Oct’21 Dec’21
3 (1) 12-month cumulative
Economic activity heat map
Q1’20 Q2’20 Q3’20 October’20 November’20 December’20
Growth (yoy, %) 4.5 -9.9 6.7
Industrial Production (yoy, %) 5.7 -16.7 5.8 10.2
Manufacturing PMI 50.6 42.7 54.7 53.9 51.4 50.8
Electricty Consumption (yoy, %) 2.7 -12.5 3.8 5.0 5.7
White Goods Sale (yoy, %) 11.2 -1.2 33.1 30.0 19.5
Automotive Sales (yoy, %) 44.8 18.7 156.2 90.9 34.6
Home Sales (yoy, %) 33.0 13.8 49.2 -16.3 -18.7
Real Sector Confidence Index (s.a.) 103.9 75.2 103.4 109.7 107.4 110.4
Capacity Utilization Rate (s.a.) 76.2 63.5 72.7 74.9 75.3 75.4
Consumer Confidence Index (s.a.) 80.7 81.2 81.2 81.9 80.1 80.1
Services Sector Confidence Index (s.a.) 95.4 50.9 70.7 79.7 77.5 70.4
Retail Sector Confidence Index (s.a.) 103.2 80.2 94.3 95.0 95.0 87.6
Construction Sector Confidence Index (s.a.) 76.9 60.4 85.1 83.8 79.0 73.3
Unemployment Rate (s.a.) 13.1 14.0 12.7
Budget Balance (bn TRY) -29.6 -79.9 -31.1 -4.9 13.4
Current Account Balance (bn $) -9.0 -12.5 -9.3 -0.3
Export (yoy, %) -4.3 -26.2 -2.5 5.6 -1.0
Import (yoy, %) 10.3 -16.3 10.7 8.4 16.1
Foreign Tourist Arrivals (yoy, %) -22.1 -97.9 -73.0 -59.4 -61.9
Best Average Worst
4Sources: CBRT, Treasury, TURKSTAT, Akbank
01 Operating Environment
02 2020 Wrap-up
03 2021 Guidance
04 Digital Transformation
05 Sustainability Approach
5
2020: Financial strength & operational resilience remains intact
2020 Guidance 9M20 2020E vs. Guidance
9M20 RoE
11.6%
TL Loan Growth Low-twenties +20.8% when adj. for
TL 500 mn (2)
free
FX Loan Growth (in USD) Negative c. 10% -8.1% provisions
Leverage ~ 8x 8.2x
ROE Low-teens 10.5%
NIM (swap adj.) 4.2%- 4.5% 4.3% Slightly lower Due to increase in
funding costs
Net fees&com. growth Neg. high-single digit -4.3%
Opex growth Mid-teens 16.7%
Cost/ income (1) ≤34% 32.3%
NPL
01 Operating Environment
02 2020 Wrap-up
03 2021 Guidance
04 Digital Transformation
05 Sustainability Approach
72021 Outlook: Leveraging our strength while carrying out priorities
Superior CAR
Capital buffers 19.1%(1)
9M20
Low ‣ Solid growth
leverage
8.2x … to improve
9M20 ‣ Customer acquisition
profitability ‣ CoC normalization
CIR Excellently
Low
32.3%(2)
Cost base 9M20 positioned…
… to continue ‣ People & Culture
Outstanding building our ‣ Digitization & AI
talent future ‣ Sustainability
Cutting-edge
infrastructure
8
(1) As of 9M20 & w/o forbearances that will end by YE20 (Fixing MtM losses of securities & FX rate for RWA calculation to YE19)
(2) Excludes FX gain from long FX position related with stage 1&2 provisions & LYY hedge as well as insurance penalty of TL 71 mn & BRSA penalty of TL 117 mnRedeploying capital with sustainable profitability in focus
2021G
‣ TL Loans ~ 20% ‣ Customer acquisition
๏ Differentiation through innovation
๏ Consumer Low-twenties
๏ Business Mid-teens ๏ High caliber and mobile sales force
๏ Digital on-boarding to be a game changer
‣ FX Loans Flattish
๏ Omni-channel ML based analytical support
Loan Breakdown
(9M20, net, %)
‣ Consumer and SME driven TL loan growth
๏ Accelerated marketing efforts
Consumer incl. 38
Credit Cards
22 FX Loans ๏ Advanced analytical and digital capabilities
๏ Renewed micro-SME lending infrastructure
TL Business Banking 41
9Maintain disciplined funding mix & robust liquidity
LDR (1) (%) Wholesale Funding Maturity Profile in 2021
(USD mn)
9M20
137 138 143 FX liquidity
buffer: 2,694
98
USD 13.4 bn
91 93
1,025 929
51 54 50
489
251
2019 1H20 9M20 1Q21 2Q21 3Q21 4Q21 2021
(4)
Multilateral Securitisation Syndicated Loan Trade Finance
TL LDR LDR FX LDR
‣ Maintain disciplined LDR management ‣ Maintaining current levels of wholesale funding
๏ Total LDR at 93% vs sector’s Total LDR 103% (2) ๏ Roll over of both syndicated loans at ~ 100%
๏ No Eurobond redemption in 2021
‣ Focus remains on broadening deposit base
‣ Monitoring capital markets opportunistically
๏ Sticky & low cost consumer & SME deposits’ share in
TL Deposit at 75% (3) ‣ Increasing ESG-linked funding’s share from ~ 10% to
~30% from 2021 & beyond
(1) Bank-only. TL LDR includes domestic TL bond issuances and merchant payables MIS data
10 (2) Based on BRSA weekly data dated September 25, 2020
(3) Based on 9M20 MIS data
(4) Syndicated loans are as of October-end 2020Gradual margin recovery throughout the year
Quarterly Swap Adj. & CPI Normalized NIM (1) 2021G
(%)
Swap Adj. NIM
Margin improvement
to accelerate in 2H21
20- 30 bps
contraction
5.1 4.6 3.9
1Q20 2Q20 3Q20 4Q20 1Q21 2Q21 3Q21 4Q21
‣ NIM expected to bottom out in 1Q21
‣ Favorable positioning for asset repricing in 1H21
๏ Low maturity mismatch
๏ ~ 40% of TL loans & fixed rate TL securities to mature in 1H21
‣ Funding costs projected to ease in 2H21, inline with expected downward inflation trend
‣ Proactive positioning in CPI linkers to be margin supportive (CPI used in 2021 CPI linker valuation is 11%)
11 (1) MIS data., 2020 quarterly NIM calculation adjusted by Oct-Oct’20 CPI at 11.9%Fee income to be growth driven
Net Fees & Commissions
High-single
digit
High-teens 2021G
Net fees & comm. growth High-teens
2019 2020E 2021G
‣ Payment Systems Mid-teens
‣ Business & Consumer Loans Low-twenties
Fees & Commissions by product
(9M20,%)
‣ Wealth Management Mid-teens
Wealth Management
Bancassurance
14 ‣ Bancassurance High-teens
7 Money Transfers
Business Loans 27 6
5 Other
4
Consumer Loans
Payment Systems 37
12CIR to remain best-in-class
Opex
2021G
Mid-teens
Mid-teens Opex Growth Mid-teens
‣ HR expenses ~ CPI (1)
‣ Marketing expenses > avg. CPI
2019 2020E 2021G
๏ Inline w/ growth strategy
Opex Breakdown
(9M20,%) ‣ IT / Depreciation expenses > avg. CPI
Regulatory ๏ Currency depreciation
Depreciation & Maint.
11 IT ๏ Higher digitization within the bank
11
8
16 ‣ Regulatory > avg. CPI
Marketing 13
Other ๏ Inline w/ growth strategy
41
HR CIR ≤ 34%
13 (1) YE 2020 CPICoC to improve following prudent reserve build
Total Provision Build & Coverages Net CoC 2021G
provisions (including ccy impact, bps)
reached CoC
TL 17 bn
9M20
6.1%
< 200 bps
4.1% 250-300
317 < 200
294 271
201
1Q19 2Q19 3Q19 4Q19 1Q20 2Q20 3Q20 1Q20 2Q20 3Q20 9M20 2020E 2021G
Provision Build Gross Coverage %
‣ Proactive IFRS 9 implementation regardless of ‣ No provision reversals foreseen for the existing book
forbearances & payment deferrals in 2020
๏ Stage 2 & 3 coverages up by c. 6 pps & c. 7 pps ‣ NPL 2021 guidanceStrong ROE recovery in 2021
Low-teens Mid-teens
2020 2021
Loan growth with Solid NII Improving Low Lower CoC after Hedged LYY
risk & return in generation fees operating significant position
focus cost base provision build
Inline 10 bps CoC c. 180 bps
with improvement: negative ROE
growth c. 40 bps impact in 1H20
strategy ROE impact ahead of hedge
152021 Guidance: Leveraging our strength while carrying out priorities
2021G
TL Loan Growth ~ 20%
FX Loan Growth (in USD) Flattish
Leverage > 8x Medium-term Targets
ROE Mid-teens
✓ Achieve mid-to high-teens ROE
NIM (swap adj.) 20-30 bps contraction
✓ Committed to sustainable dividend distribution
Net fees&com. growth High-teens
✓ Maintain best-in-class CIR
Opex growth Mid-teens
Cost/ income (1) ≤34%
NPL (2)01 Operating Environment
02 2020 Wrap-up
03 2021 Guidance
04 Digital Transformation
05 Sustainability Approach
17A few of new prominent digital features launched during 2020
User-centered Smart Daily Banking
‣ New brand attitude and look & feel ‣ AI-based personalized financial insights One-Stop Shop for Wealth Management
‣ Lean experience, simplified language & new tone ‣ AI and need-based smart offers ‣ New investment dashboard
of voice ‣ Campaigns and offers from favorite ‣ Aggregated view of all assets
‣ Personalized communication area brands powered w/ AI
‣ Total portfolio and asset performance tracking
‣ Native promo and sales areas ‣ Akbank Assistant chatbot: First point of help ‣ New and enriched investment product rail
integrated into mobile
‣ Mobile youth proposition: Akbank FAV ‣ FX platform with customized currency prices
‣ Explore tab with search & help capabilities
‣ Turkey’s first digital-first credit card ‣ Crypto-currency menu integrated with prominent
‣ Proactive money transfer & payment suggestions crypto-platforms
‣ Add & rename “contacts” infrastructure
‣ Personalized small talk & info sharings
‣ Lean money transfer experience
‣ Ready for upcoming regulations: Digital Socialized Banking Experience in Money
‣ Akbank Mobile recognized with 3 key design awards: Onboarding, Single Factor login Transfers & Payments
๏ iF Design Best Mobile App Design
๏ A’Design Award & Competition ‣ Mobile payments with QR, NFC, OCR and barcode
๏ Red Dot Award in Brand & reading
Communication Design ‣ Nearby money transfers
‣ Money transfers and payments with QR
‣ Money transfers to contacts and groups
‣ Istanbulcard registration and top-up payments
1801 Operating Environment
02 2020 Wrap-up
03 2021 Guidance
04 Digital Transformation
05 Sustainability Approach
19ESG Strategy: Mitigate environmental footprint while increasing
positive impact
Sustainable Finance Ecosystems Management
Responsible Products & Services ‣ ‣ Digitalization
Impact Investing ‣ ‣ Financial Inclusion
To be the
leading bank
that drives
Turkey into the
future
People & Community Climate Change
Future of Work ‣ ‣ Operational Emissions
Diversity & Inclusion ‣ ‣ Portfolio Impact
Community Investment ‣ ‣ Portfolio Exposure
Integrated Governance Financial Performance
20Actionable targets for positive impact
SUSTAINABLE TL 200 bn TL 15 bn AuM ECOSYSTEMS Extend digital & innovative
FINANCE Sustainable loan Sustainable MANAGEMENT products & services
financing until investment funds
Supporting a more Enhancing
sustainable economy 2030 2030 businesses &
financial health
Increase sustainable financing Increase number of financially
secured by the bank until 2030 empowered people
Improve the Increase Social Become a carbon- Decrease impact
PEOPLE & effectiveness of
CLIMATE
Return on neutral bank of loan portfolio
COMMUNITY investment on our Investments for
CHANGE through eliminating
Mitigating operational
on climate
Empowering our people people community operational
and communities emission & portfolio change until
investments emissions until
impact 2025 2030
Enhance the effectiveness of Akbank Mitigate climate-related risks &
volunteerism in community investments impact on portfolio
21Check out our website!
Some of the new features:
22Investor Relations & Sustainability Team
Ebru Güvenir Institutional Investor Awards
Senior Vice President
ebru.guvenir@akbank.com
Best IR Program Best CEO
İlknur Kocaer, CFA Feride Doğan in Turkey for IR in Turkey
Investor Relations Vice President Sustainability Vice President for Large Cap for Large Cap
ilknur.kocaer@akbank.com 2020 2020
feride.dogan@akbank.com
Nazlı Çelem Gülçe Deniz
Manager Manager
Best IR
nazli.celem@akbank.com gulce.deniz@akbank.com Best CFO Professional
for IR in Turkey in Turkey
for Large Cap for Large Cap
Bilgi Aslankurt Burak Songül 2020 2020
Manager Manager
bilgi.aslankurt@akbank.com burak.songul@akbank.com
Address : Akbank Genel Müdürlüğü Sabancı Center 4. Levent 34330, İstanbul
Email : investor.relations@akbank.com
IR Website : https://www.akbankinvestorrelations.com/en/
23Disclaimer Statement
The information and opinions contained in this document have been compiled or arrived at by Akbank from
sources believed to be reliable and in good faith, but no representation or warranty, expressed or implied, is
made as to their accuracy, completeness or correctness. All opinions and estimates contained in this
document constitute the Company’s judgement as of the date of this document and are subject to change
without notice. The information contained in this document is published for the assistance of recipients, but
is not to be relied upon as authoritative or taken in substitution for the exercise of judgement by any
recipient. The Company does not accept any liability whatsoever for any direct or consequential loss arising
from any use of this document or its contents. This document may not be reproduced, distributed or
published for any purpose.
24You can also read
