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GLOBAL METRO MONITOR 2018
MAX BOUCHET, SIFAN LIU, and JOSEPH PARILLA with NADER KABBANI
JUNE 2018
GLOBAL METRO MONITOR 2018
EXECUTIVE SUMMARY
M
ore than half the world’s population now lives in urban areas and
the 300 largest metropolitan economies in the world account for
nearly half of all global output. The concentration of economic
growth and prosperity in large metro areas defines the modern
global economy, creating both opportunities and challenges in an era in which
national political, economic, and societal trends are increasingly influenced by sub-
national dynamics. This report, which analyzes employment and GDP per capita
growth of 300 large metro areas (with a special feature on cities in the Middle East
and North Africa), finds the following:
►► Relative to the world, large metropolitan ►► Within world regions, a subset of
economies concentrated and accelerated high-performing metro areas is
economic growth between 2014 and 2016. disproportionately accountable for
Between 2014 and 2016, the 300 largest employment and GDP per capita growth.
metro areas accounted for 36 percent of Between 2014 and 2016, just over half of the
global employment growth and 67 percent world’s 300 largest metropolitan economies
of global GDP growth, rates that well were “pockets of growth,” outpacing their
exceed their 2016 share of each indicator. regions in both indicators. Reflecting its
Emerging economy metro areas continued to historic urban economic growth, China led
disproportionately drive growth, accounting this category with 73 percent of its largest
for 80 percent of the 60 best-performing metro areas, followed by Emerging Asia-
metropolitan areas. Pacific (65 percent) and the Middle East and
Africa (56 percent).
►► Global trends mask notable variation in
the performance of large metropolitan This report reaffirms the economic power of
economies across world regions. Between large cities in the global economy, but also
2014 and 2016, metro areas in China and reveals significant variation in urban economic
Emerging Asia-Pacific nations experienced growth across the world. While many large cities
the fastest GDP per capita growth while are pulling away from their surrounding regions,
Middle Eastern and African metro areas others are struggling. With so much economic
exhibited the fastest employment growth. activity centered in these 300 metro areas, their
By contrast, Latin American metro areas individual and collective progress will continue
experienced the slowest GDP per capita and to shape global economic, political, and societal
employment growth. Relative to the rest trends.
of their regions, large metro areas have G LOBA L
experienced faster employment growth since ME T RO
2000 but slower GDP per capita growth. MONI TOR
201 8
1
B R OOK IN GS
MET R OP OLI TA N
P OL I CY
P R OGRA M
2
INTRODUCTION
W
►►“ elcome to the place age,” The Economist wrote in a 2017 cover
story.1 The coinage sought to capture how the diverging economic
fortunes of large cities and their surrounding hinterlands
contributed to increased populism and the political divisions that
led to the election of U.S. President Donald Trump and Britain’s departure from the
European Union, a.k.a. Brexit.
These shock political events awoke leaders in Today, more than half of the world’s population
advanced economies to not only the pace of lives in cities and metro areas and, together,
national growth, but also where that growth is the world’s 300 largest metropolitan economies
occurring within nations and larger regions. U.S. account for nearly half of all global output.
and UK events led the headlines, but a place- Understanding the economic trajectory of these
focused lens is perhaps even more relevant to large metropolitan economies offers additional
emerging markets. The incredible migration insights into the sources of growth that national
of workers from rural areas to cities remains a or regional assessments tend to obscure. This
crucial trend in many middle-income nations, report analyzes the economic performance
with the emergence of a significant network of of the world’s 300 largest metropolitan areas
large metro economies in Asia, the Middle East, using two indicators: employment and GDP per
and Africa. In most instances, the urban-rural capita. Of course, cities well beyond this sample
differences in access to economic opportunity power global economic growth, and these
are even starker in these rising nations than in are by no means the only metrics that should
their Western counterparts. guide economic policymakers. For instance, the
distribution of economic growth across societies
Together, globalization and urbanization have and the effects of growth on the environment
ushered in the place age, and a growing body are also important considerations, albeit outside
of scholarship has documented the associated the scope of this report. That noted, the two
dichotomies. Positively, urbanization has helped key metrics in the Global Metro Monitor reflect
lift the productive potential and standards of the importance that policymakers and the
living of billions of workers, with major cities public attach to achieving rising incomes and
continuing to be engines of economic growth, standards of living (GDP per capita), as well as
opportunity, and upward mobility. Negatively, the generating widespread labor market opportunity
distribution of those opportunities within and (employment).3
between cities remains uneven. On the latter,
the modern marketplace’s demand for scale, Finally, this analysis does not attempt
connectivity, and concentration favors large to measure which metro areas are most
metropolises while acting to the detriment of competitive, wealthy, or livable, as incredible
smaller cities and rural areas and their residents. differences in wealth and prosperity exist within
Richard Florida has summarized these twin the sample. Rather, it aims to capture how
challenges as “the new urban crisis,” in which large metro areas are responding to continued
the unevenness of modern economic growth changes in the world economy and, amid G LOBA L
creates an inevitable political backlash, or what concerns about rising place-based disparities, ME T RO
Andrés Rodríguez-Pose calls “the revenge of how large metro areas are growing relative to MONI TOR
places that don’t matter.”2 their surrounding nations and regions. 201 8
3
D ATA A N D M E T H O D S
T
his update of the Global Metro Monitor largely follows the methodology
used in previous editions. Therefore, this section focuses primarily on
changes introduced in this year’s report. (For more details on data and
methods, see Appendix B).
Much like previous versions, the 2018 Global power parity rates (PPP) rates. For trend
Metro Monitor employs a few key variables analysis, it uses real GDP data at 2009 prices
to assess the economic performance of and expressed in U.S. dollars.
metropolitan areas: gross domestic product
(GDP), employment, and population from 2000 The report focuses on metropolitan performance
to 2016. To analyze economic circumstances on two key economic indicators: GDP per
in the current year (2016), this study employs capita and employment. In previous years, the
nominal GDP data in U.S. dollars at purchasing report measured economic performance simply
KEY TERMS USED IN THE GLOBAL METRO MONITOR:
►► Gross domestic product (GDP): the ►► GDP per capita: the GDP divided by the
sum of the market value of goods and population. It does not equal personal or
services produced in an economy, such as a household income and does not reflect
metropolitan area, a country, or the world. the distribution of income, but proxies the
GDP provides an objective measurement average standard of living of an area.
for growth across cities but does not
reflect how inclusive or environmentally ►► Employment: the number of people who
sustainable that growth is. Real GDP is performed any work at all in the reference
the inflation-adjusted value of the goods period, for pay or in-kind, or who were
and services produced by an economy. By temporarily absent from a job for such
neutralizing price changes, real GDP allows reasons as illness, maternity or parental
comparisons across time. leave, holiday, training, or industrial
dispute.
►► Purchasing power parity (PPP) rate: the
rate at which the currency of one country ►► Population: the number of residents of a
would have to be converted into that of metropolitan area or country.
another to purchase the same amount of
B R OOK IN GS goods and services in each country. GDP
MET R OP OLI TA N based on PPP rates allows comparison
P OL I CY across countries.
P R OGRA M
4
through the annualized growth rate of real GDP trends at the regional scale, we divide regions
per capita and the annualized growth rate of into two segments: large metro areas and the
employment. This version of the Global Metro “rest of region,” which include other cities as
Monitor complements those variables with two well as rural areas.
additional metrics: the overall net change in
real GDP per capita and the overall net change The metropolitan areas analyzed in this report
in employment. These four indicators—which differ from the previous version of the Global
together approximate both rate of growth Metro Monitor. Metropolitan areas within the top
and the magnitude of change in labor market 300 in China (55 new entrants), the Middle East
opportunity and living standards—are combined and Africa (10), and the rest of emerging Asia-
into an economic performance index by which Pacific (8) have all increased, whereas metro
the 300 metro areas are ranked over the long areas in North America, Western Europe and
term (2000–2016) and short term (2014–2016) Advanced Asia-Pacific have lost 64 slots in total.
(see Appendix B). These changes are due to the continued rapid
growth in emerging market metro areas, which
This study defines a metropolitan area as pushed the size of their economies past many
an economic region including one or more slower growing metro areas in Europe and the
cities and their surrounding areas, all linked United States. The dramatic increase in Chinese
by economic and commuting ties. This year’s metro areas also reflects an improvement in how
sample is comprised of the 300 largest that nation’s economic output is calculated on a
metropolitan economies in the world, based on purchasing power parity basis (PPP), which was
the size of their economies in 2016 at PPP rates. previously understating Chinese GDP relative to
Throughout the report, we refer to this sample the rest of the world.
as “large metropolitan areas.” When examining
TA B L E 1
The distribution of the 300 largest metro areas shifted from Western Europe
and North America to China between 2012 and 2016
300 largest metropolitan economies in the world, by region, 2012 and 2016
Change
Region 2012 2016
in number
Advanced Asia-Pacific 33 25 -8
Eastern Europe and Central Asia 14 13 -1
Emerging Asia-Pacific (excluding China) 12 20 +8
China 48 103 +55
Latin America 22 14 -8
Middle East and Africa 15 25 +10
North America 88 57 -31
Western Europe 68 43 -25 G LOBA L
Total 300 300 ME T RO
MONI TOR
201 8
Source: Global Metro Monitor 2015 and Global Metro Monitor 2018
5
To interpret metropolitan economic ►► Emerging Asia-Pacific: 20 metro areas in
performance, this report classifies metropolitan lower-income south and southeast Asian
areas by their respective countries’ income nations (Bangladesh, India, Indonesia,
levels and world region.4 The 300 metropolitan Malaysia, Philippines, Thailand, and Vietnam)
areas are classified as “advanced” and
“emerging” based on their primary country’s ►► Latin America: 14 metro areas in Argentina,
2016 gross national income (GNI) per capita. Brazil, Chile, Colombia, Dominican Republic,
Using the World Bank’s 2016 list of economies, Mexico, and Peru
“advanced” status is equivalent to “high-
income” level, or GNI per capita in excess of ►► Eastern Europe and Central Asia: 13 metro
$12,236. “Emerging” metro areas are located areas in Azerbaijan, Czech Republic, Hungary,
in countries with GNI per capita below that Kazakhstan, Poland, Romania, Russia, Turkey,
level.5 Of the 300 metropolitan areas in this and Ukraine
study’s sample, 160 are in emerging economies
countries and 140 are in advanced economies.6 ►► Middle East and Africa: 20 metro areas
in the countries from the Middle East and
Based on World Bank and International North Africa (Algeria, Egypt, Iran, Iraq, Israel,
Monetary Fund (IMF) definitions, this study Kuwait, Morocco, Oman, Pakistan, Qatar,
identifies seven world regions in which the Saudi Arabia, and the United Arab Emirates)
sampled metropolitan areas lie: and five metro areas in sub-Saharan African
nations (Angola, Nigeria, and South Africa)
►► Western Europe: 43 metro areas in countries
that were members of the European Union ►► We treated China and its 103 metro areas
before the 2004 enlargement (EU-15), plus as a separate category from the Emerging
Norway and Switzerland Asia-Pacific region, due to the distinct
performance of China’s large metro areas.
►► North America: 51 U.S. and six Canadian
metro areas
►► Advanced Asia-Pacific: 25 metro areas
in higher-income Asia-Pacific economies
(Australia, Hong Kong, Japan, Macau, New
Zealand, Singapore, South Korea, and Taiwan)
B R OOK IN GS
MET R OP OLI TA N
P OL I CY
P R OGRA M
6
FINDINGS
A . Relative to the world, large metropolitan economies
concentrated and accelerated economic growth between 2014 and
2016.
Economic activity and growth between 2014 and large metro areas, outpacing the world by 0.7
2016 remained disproportionately concentrated percentage points. These trends persisted even
in the world’s major metropolitan areas. In as large metro areas increased their population
2016, the 300 largest metropolitan areas at a lower rate, a growth pattern which resulted
accounted for a little under one-fourth of the in much higher levels of GDP growth on a per
world’s workforce but generated nearly one- person basis as well (2.2 percent in the largest
half of the world’s production (Figure 1). The metro areas versus 1.5 percent globally).
economic power of large metropolitan areas
derives from the productive environments they As in past years of this report, development
offer firms. The density and connectedness of status signals where growth has been most
urban areas lower transportation costs and robust over the past two years. Metropolitan
provide businesses the shared pools of labor, economies in emerging countries gravitated
infrastructure, and knowledge they need to toward the top of the economic performance
remain productive. These forces together index (Figure 4). Emerging economies accounted
enhance job creation and economic growth.7 for 80 percent of the 60 best-performing
These advantages exceed the costs associated metropolitan areas. Large metro areas in China
with large, dense cities—such as higher rents or and Emerging Asia-Pacific overwhelmingly
greater traffic congestion—and thus firms and dominate the upper ranks (Table 2). Not all
industries continue to concentrate in them. emerging market metro areas performed well,
however. The bottom quintile of metro areas—
These dynamics mean that large metro areas those that exhibited slower growth—included
not only contain disproportionate amounts of many Latin American metro areas, especially
economic activity but power recent economic Brazil’s big cities.
growth as well. Between 2014 and 2016, the 300
largest metro areas accounted for 36 percent Urban economies in advanced countries had
of global employment growth and 67 percent of more mixed performance. At or near the top of
global GDP growth, rates that well exceed their the league tables were Dublin, San Jose, and San
2016 share of each indicator (Figure 2). Large Francisco. Oddities in the statistical accounting
metro areas accounted for nearly twice the of gross domestic product partly account for
share of GDP growth as employment growth, Dublin’s nearly unheard of GDP per capita
signaling their incredibly high relative levels of growth. Many global companies legally reside
productivity in these places. in Dublin for tax purposes, but do not actually
produce there. Some of these companies
By definition, then, large metro economies increased the amount of contract manufacturing
expanded at a faster pace during this period they conducted abroad, but statistically that is
than the global economy as a whole. Between reflected in the local and national accounting of
2014 and 2016, GDP growth in large urban GDP as an export.8 G LOBA L
areas averaged 3.3 percent per year, exceeding ME T RO
the global average of 2.6 percent (Figure 3). MONI TOR
Annual employment growth was also faster in 201 8
7
Meanwhile, tremendous growth in the tech American metro areas specialized in oil and
sector propelled San Jose and San Francisco— gas experienced particularly slow growth, as
the two anchors for Silicon Valley—into the top commodity prices declined between 2014 and
four of the economic performance index. At 2016, including Calgary, Edmonton, Houston, and
the other end of the spectrum, several North Oklahoma City.
FIGURE 1
Large metro areas generated nearly half of the world’s production
300 largest metropolitan areas’ share of world total, 2016
60.0%
49.1%
50.0%
40.0%
30.0%
23.3% 24.1%
20.0%
10.0%
0.0%
Nominal GDP Employment Population
Source: Brookings analysis of Oxford Economics data
FIGURE 2
Large metro areas are powering economic growth
300 largest metropolitan areas’ share of world total, 2014-2016
80.0%
70.0% 66.9%
60.0%
50.0%
40.0% 36.1%
30.0%
21.9%
20.0%
10.0%
B R OOK IN GS
MET R OP OLI TA N 0.0%
P OL I CY Real GDP growth Employment growth Population growth
P R OGRA M
Source: Brookings analysis of Oxford Economics data
8FIGURE 3
Large metro areas expanded at a faster pace than the global economy
Compound annual growth rate, 2014–2016
3.5% 3.3%
3.0%
2.6%
2.5% 2.2%
1.9%
2.0%
1.5%
1.5% 1.2%
1.0% 1.1%
1.0%
0.5%
0.0%
Real GDP GDP per capita Employment Population
300 largest metro areas World
Source: Brookings analysis of Oxford Economics data
FIGURE 4
Large metro areas in emerging economies outperformed those in advanced
economies
Distribution by economic performance quintiles, 2014–2016
Highest
performing 48 12
quintile
Second 37 23
Third 32 28
Fourth 16 44
Lowest
performing 27 33
quintile
G LOBA L
ME T RO
Emerging economy (n = 160) Advanced economy (n = 140)
MONI TOR
201 8
Source: Brookings analysis of Oxford Economics data
9TA B L E 2
Large metro areas in China and Emerging Asia-Pacific dominate the list of
fastest growing economies from 2014 to 2016
Highest performers on economic performance index, 300 largest metropolitan economies,
2014–2016
Employment, ‘14–’16 GDP per capita, ‘14–’16
Rank Rank
Metro Country Growth Change Growth Change ‘00–'16
'14–’16
Rate (thousands) Rate (thousands)
1 Dublin Ireland 2.5% 41.6 21.2% 37.9 3
2 San Jose United States 3.4% 69.3 7.5% 16.2 15
3 Chengdu China 5.9% 860.7 7.2% 1.2 12
4 San Francisco United States 3.8% 166.6 4.1% 6.8 133
5 Beijing China 2.8% 659.1 6.3% 1.6 7
6 Delhi India 4.7% 621.0 6.6% 0.5 75
7 Manila Philippines 5.7% 543.7 5.5% 0.7 127
8 Fuzhou China 6.0% 315.1 7.8% 1.5 38
9 Tianjin China 2.5% 436.1 7.6% 2.2 5
10 Xiamen China 5.4% 317.3 7.1% 1.7 13
11 Wuhan China 4.5% 382.2 6.9% 1.7 42
12 Istanbul Turkey 4.4% 459.0 3.9% 1.6 78
13 Chongqing China 1.3% 458.1 9.8% 1.3 111
14 Hyderabad India 5.4% 343.5 8.7% 0.3 84
15 Wenzhou China 5.2% 344.9 7.1% 0.9 24
16 Los Angeles United States 2.5% 291.8 3.1% 4.0 130
17 Suzhou China 2.1% 295.1 7.5% 2.7 2
18 Hanoi Vietnam 4.8% 367.8 7.4% 0.4 83
19 Surat India 5.9% 271.8 7.9% 0.5 44
20 Hangzhou China 2.9% 302.5 7.5% 2.0 4
21 Erdos China 3.5% 35.2 7.2% 4.2 14
22 Changzhou China 3.6% 186.3 8.4% 2.3 17
23 Mumbai India 2.9% 470.8 6.9% 0.5 74
24 Yancheng China 5.0% 180.9 9.0% 1.3 46
25 Dhaka Bangladesh 4.8% 407.0 5.2% 0.2 77
26 Zhenjiang China 3.9% 99.3 8.4% 2.4 25
27 Urumqi China 4.6% 145.3 8.6% 1.5 50
28 Jakarta Indonesia 2.0% 532.5 4.4% 0.5 33
29 Taizhou (Jiangsu) China 3.7% 153.4 8.9% 1.7 28
B R OOK IN GS
30 Wuhu China 4.7% 89.5 8.5% 1.9 51
MET R OP OLI TA N
P OL I CY
Source: Brookings analysis of Oxford Economics data
P R OGRA M
10TA B L E 2 (continued)
Large metro areas in other emerging regions–Latin America, Central Asia and
Africa–exhibited some of the slowest growth
Lowest performers on economic performance index, 300 largest metropolitan economies,
2014–2016
Employment, ‘14–’16 GDP per capita, ‘14–’16
Rank Rank
Metro Country Growth Change Growth Change ‘00–'16
‘14–'16
Rate (thousands) Rate (thousands)
271 Ottawa Canada 0.8% 11.3 0.3% 0.2 244
272 Doha Qatar 1.8% 23.5 -0.3% -0.3 48
273 Taipei Taiwan 0.6% 40.5 0.1% 0.0 172
274 Basel-Mulhouse Switzerland 0.8% 10.9 0.1% 0.1 268
275 Oklahoma City United States 0.7% 8.9 -0.1% -0.1 236
276 Hannover Germany 1.0% 13.9 -0.3% -0.3 257
277 Perth Australia 0.2% 4.0 0.0% 0.0 49
278 Shenyang China 0.0% -0.2 -0.2% 0.0 131
279 Luanda Angola 3.2% 89.4 -6.9% -0.8 100
280 Almaty Kazakhstan 0.7% 11.0 -1.0% -0.4 105
281 Oslo Norway 0.4% 6.2 -0.3% -0.5 150
282 Johannesburg South Africa 0.6% 23.8 -1.9% -0.4 203
283 Baku Azerbaijan 0.5% 14.1 -1.7% -0.4 125
284 Cape Town South Africa 0.1% 2.5 -1.5% -0.2 254
285 Dubai UAE -0.8% -42.4 0.2% 0.1 295
286 Milwaukee United States 1.1% 18.1 -1.3% -1.5 260
287 Moscow Russia 0.6% 87.3 -2.9% -1.5 107
288 Kiev Ukraine -0.3% -9.4 -2.2% -0.4 195
289 Rio De Janeiro Brazil -0.3% -28.8 -2.4% -0.6 208
290 Dalian China -2.3% -165.4 1.3% 0.4 63
291 Houston United States 1.0% 59.2 -2.1% -2.8 204
292 Porto Alegre Brazil -0.9% -36.8 -3.7% -0.9 253
293 Lima Peru -2.3% -242.4 1.1% 0.2 155
294 Brasilia Brazil -1.1% -47.5 -3.2% -1.3 186
295 Belo Horizonte Brazil -2.1% -100.6 -5.6% -1.2 228
296 Curitiba Brazil -3.9% -143.2 -6.1% -1.6 266
297 Edmonton Canada 1.4% 20.9 -5.9% -7.5 179
298 Sao Paulo Brazil -2.0% -412.4 -5.8% -1.9 120
299 Calgary Canada 0.3% 4.6 -5.3% -7.4 226
300 Macau Macau 0.3% 2.5 -14.1% -17.5 21 G LOBA L
ME T RO
Source: Brookings analysis of Oxford Economics data MONI TOR
201 8
11B . Global trends mask notable variation in the performance of
large metropolitan economies across world regions.
The previous finding revealed that, as a system, and middle-income levels in those cities, faster
the 300 largest metro areas continue to growth is somewhat expected, as it is easier
disproportionately drive economic growth. But to achieve rapid growth from a lower income
this assessment alone misses notable regional starting point. However, that trend is not
variation in how large cities are performing. universally applicable across low and middle-
Figure 5 examines the average annual income regions. In other emerging regions,
employment and GDP per capita change in large GDP per capita growth ranges from a stagnant
metro areas in each region. 0.7 percent growth rate in the Middle East and
Africa to a 1.3 percent decline in Latin America.
From this vantage point, several trends in the
geography of urban growth between 2014 and Employment growth among large metro areas
2016 come into sharper relief. First, large metro offers a different region-by-region pattern.
areas in China and the Emerging Asia-Pacific Employment growth rates were highest in
region have achieved extremely rapid GDP large metro areas in the Middle East and Africa
per capita growth by global standards, with (3.3 percent), Emerging Asia-Pacific excluding
a compound annual growth rate at 7 percent China (2.8 percent), and North America (2.3
and 4.9 percent, respectively. Given the lower percent). In China, employment expanded much
FIGURE 5
Large metro areas’ economic performance varies by world region
Compound annual growth rate, 2014–2016
GDP per capita Employment
8.0%
7.0%
7.0%
6.0%
4.9%
5.0%
4.0%
3.3%
2.8%
3.0%
2.3%
2.0% 2.1%
2.0% 1.5% 1.6% 1.4%
1.2% 1.1% 1.2%
1.0% 0.7%
0.0%
-0.2%
-1.0%
-1.3%
-2.0%
Advanced Eastern Emerging Latin America Middle East North America Western China
B R OOK IN GS
Asia-Pacific Europe and Asia-Pacific, (n = 14) and Africa (n = 57) Europe (n = 103)
MET R OP OLI TA N (n = 25) Central Asia excluding (n = 25) (n = 43)
(n = 13) China
P OL I CY (n = 20)
P R OGRA M
Source: Brookings analysis of Oxford Economics data
12slower than GDP per capita, and Latin America region, sometimes dramatically so. In China,
registered negative growth in both indicators. for instance, the pattern is particularly striking.
Large Chinese metro areas experienced an 88.1
A regional perspective also reveals how large percent growth in employment while the rest
metro areas perform compared to the rest of of the country lost 11.5 percent of its workers,
their regions, which consist of mid-sized and exemplifying the robust growth in the nation’s
smaller cities plus rural areas. This necessarily large metro areas and the significant workforce
requires a longer time horizon—2000 to 2016—to migration from rural areas and smaller towns
examine how the economic growth trajectories to large metro areas. The gap in employment
of large metro areas and the rest of their regions growth in Advanced Asia-Pacific, Eastern
are diverging, converging, or holding steady. Europe and Central Asia, and the Middle East
and Africa is similar, but not as stark. In Eastern
During this period, large metro areas’ Europe and Central Asia, large metro areas
employment growth has been stronger in every expanded employment even as the rest of
FIGURE 6
Large metro areas’ employment growth has been stronger in every region
Employment growth, 2000–2016 (Index, 2000=100)
Advanced Asia-Pacific China Eastern Europe and Central Asia
175 130
110
150 120
110
100 125
100
100
90 90
2000 2005 2010 2015 2000 2005 2010 2015 2000 2005 2010 2015
Emerging Asia-Pacific Latin America Middle East and Africa
140
180
130
140
160
120
140
120
110
120
100
100
100
90
2000 2005 2010 2015 2000 2005 2010 2015 2000 2005 2010 2015
North America Western Europe
115
110
110
105 105
100 100 Type
95
Large metro areas
95
G LOBA L
Rest of the region
90 90
ME T RO
2000 2005 2010 2015 2000 2005 2010 2015
MONI TOR
year
201 8
Source: Brookings analysis of Oxford Economics data
13FIGURE 7
Large metro areas did not register faster GDP per capita growth than rural
areas and smaller metro areas in most regions
GDP per capita growth, 2000–2016 (Index, 2000=100)
Advanced Asia-Pacific China Eastern Europe and Central Asia
180
500
120 160
400
140
110 300
120
200
100
100
100
2000 2005 2010 2015 2000 2005 2010 2015 2000 2005 2010 2015
Emerging Asia-Pacific Latin America Middle East and Africa
130 140
180 130
120
150 120
110
110
120
100 100
90
2000 2005 2010 2015 2000 2005 2010 2015 2000 2005 2010 2015
North America Western Europe
115
110
110
105
105 Type
100 100 Large metro areas
Rest of the region
95 95
2000 2005 2010 2015 2000 2005 2010 2015
year
Source: Brookings analysis of Oxford Economics data
the region stagnated. In Western Europe and Western Europe outpaced the rest of the region,
North America, large metro areas tracked their although the percentage gain since 2000 is the
surrounding regions more closely in the lead up second smallest among its global counterparts
to the financial crisis, but then diverged in the (13.8 percent).
post-recession period.
China is once again a remarkable outlier. Large
GDP per capita growth trends by region look metro areas experienced four times the level
different from trends in employment. Between of GDP per capita growth than the rest of the
B R OOK IN GS 2000 and 2016, in most regions the 300 largest country (which grew at a solid 42.8 percent
MET R OP OLI TA N metro areas did not register faster GDP per between 2000 and 2016). Incredibly, it appears
P OL I CY capita growth than rural areas and smaller that the performance of large Chinese metro
P R OGRA M metro areas (Figure 7). Large metro areas in areas is responsible for the earlier finding that
14the 300 largest metro economies are expanding in large metro areas has either trailed or tracked
GDP per capita at a faster rate than the world as their surrounding nations and regions during the
a whole. 2000 to 2016 period.
These charts show clearly that China’s That noted, on average, the populations of large
urbanization and growth patterns—rapid metro areas are still much wealthier than their
employment and rapid GDP per capita growth— surrounding areas across all regions (Figure 8).
are unlike any other region in the world. By The GDP per capita gap between large metro
comparison, large metro areas in the Middle areas and their surrounding regions remains the
East and Africa appear to be experiencing largest in emerging markets, not in advanced
rising employment but without rapid growth in economies where the political backlash to
living standards. Economists have labeled this economic divergence has been most significant.
recent trend “urbanization without growth,” a On average, GDP per capita is roughly 40
dynamic that occurs when poverty and weaker percent higher in large metro areas in Western
local governance constrain large cities’ capacity Europe and the United States. That gap is not
to address the negative externalities (e.g. insignificant, but it pales in comparison to GDP
congestion, pollution) emanating from growth.9 per capita percentage differences in China
(484.5 percent higher), Middle East and Africa
These findings also provide additional nuance to (206.7 percent higher), Emerging Asia-Pacific
“large city vs. regional hinterland” divergence. excluding China (200.1 percent higher), and
In every region, large metro areas are expanding Eastern Europe and Central Asia (141.3 percent
employment at a faster rate than their higher).
surrounding regions, but GDP per capita growth
FIGURE 8
People in large metro areas are wealthier across all regions
Percentage difference between GDP per capita in 300 largest metro areas and the
rest of their respective region, 2016
484.5%
200.1% 206.7%
141.3%
64.6%
40.7% 46.3%
8.5%
Advanced Western North Latin Eastern Emerging Middle East China
Asia-Pacific Europe America America Europe and Asia-Pacific and Africa G LOBA L
Central Asia (excluding ME T RO
China)
MONI TOR
201 8
Source: Brookings analysis of Oxford Economics data
15C . Within world regions, a subset of high-performing metro areas
is disproportionately accountable for employment and GDP per
capita growth.
Large metro areas are not only experiencing In the short-term, between 2014 and 2016,
differing economic trajectories across regions, 51 percent of the 300 largest metro areas
but within regions as well. A subset of high- registered higher growth rates than their region
performing metro areas are disproportionately in both indicators (Figure 9). A majority of metro
driving growth and not all large metro areas in China, Eastern Europe and Central Asia,
economies are performing well. Over 2014 Emerging Asia-Pacific, and Middle East and
and 2016, a clear majority of metro areas Africa were pockets of growth, whereas most
outperformed their respective regional metro areas in Advanced Asia-Pacific, North
economies. Two-thirds (202) of the metropolitan America and Western Europe underperformed
areas exceeded the employment growth of their compared to their respective regions on at least
region. In the same period, over 60 percent (192) one of the two indicators.
of the metro areas registered higher GDP per
capita growth than their region. Between 2000 and 2016, slightly more metro
areas (53 percent) were pockets of growth,
Within each world region, “pockets of growth” driven by the better long-term performance of
exist, a subset of cities that exceed their region metro areas in Advanced Asia-Pacific, Western
in both employment and GDP per capita growth. Europe, and China. Notably, in North America
FIGURE 9
The majority of the large metro areas exceeded the growth rates of their
region
Percentage of large metro areas that outperformed their region in both GDP per capita and
employment growth
100%
88%
90%
80% 73%
70% 65%
60%
60% 56% 54% 56%
53% 51%
50% 46% 46%
42%
40% 36%
29%
30%
20% 21%
20% 16% 16%
10%
0%
Advanced Eastern Emerging Latin Middle North Western China World
Asia-Pacific Europe and Asia-Pacific, America East and America Europe (n = 103) (n = 300)
(n = 25) Central Asia excluding (n = 14) Africa (n = 57) (n = 43)
(n = 13) China (n = 25)
B R OOK IN GS (n = 20)
MET R OP OLI TA N
P OL I CY 2000 – 2016 2014 – 2016
P R OGRA M
Source: Brookings analysis of Oxford Economics data
16and the Middle East and Africa, large metro billion in 2016.11 As a free port, Macau also
areas were much more likely to be pockets of relies on regional trade, which declined by 4.5
growth in the short-term than in the long-term, percent in 201512 and 14.6 percent in 2016.13
whereas in Advanced Asia-Pacific and Western
Europe the reverse pattern holds. ►► China: In this version of the Global Metro
Monitor, no country has more representation
Yet, even within the set of metro areas that than China, where the 103 metro areas in
are pockets of growth, there is variation. A this study continue to propel growth. Within
smaller subset of metro economies in each China, the 21 Chinese metro areas that
region—defined as those in the top quintile landed in the top fifth of the distribution
of the economic performance index within in terms of economic performance were
each region—are powering GDP per capita and located in the central industrial basin or the
employment growth. highly urbanized coastal regions. Most large
metro areas exceeded the country’s low
This section examines how metro areas employment growth (0.2 percent) and 10 of
performed within their regions between 2014 these metro areas expanded employment
and 2016, revealing significant variation in the at more than four percentage points faster
sample: than the country. Eight metro areas grew
their GDP per capita by more than two
►► Advanced Asia-Pacific: While the Advanced percentage points above the country’s
Asia–Pacific region sustained stable annual already high GDP per capita growth (6.3
growth in employment (1 percent) and GDP percent). Though not in the top quintile of
per capita (1.3 percent), the performance of performance, Zunyi and Guiyang had the
its largest metro areas remained unequal. nation’s highest GDP per capita growth (11.1
Auckland had the region’s best performance, and 10.2 percent, respectively). These two
expanding employment by 4.7 percent and cities benefited from a preferential status
GDP per capita by 3.2 percent. In Australia, in China’s economic planning with large
Melbourne and Sydney exceeded the investments in infrastructure and industrial
overall region’s employment growth and development. The south and northeastern
registered average GDP per capita growth, regions concentrated the lowest performing
whereas Perth’s growth stalled in both cities. In particular, four metro areas in the
employment and GDP per capita, partly Pearl River Delta had negative employment
due to the underperformance of the mining growth: Zhongshan (-0.6 percent), Zhuhai
industry. Tokyo performed well compared to (-1.2 percent), Foshan (-1.7 percent), and
the region, in contrast to the slow growth Jiangmen (-2.5 percent).
occurring in most Japanese metropolitan
areas. Seoul-Incheon registered the second ►► Emerging Asia-Pacific: The Emerging Asia-
fastest GDP per capita growth in the region Pacific nations, outside of China, also housed
(2.8 percent) and second largest increase some of the fastest-growing metro areas
in employment (320,000). Macau, which we in the world. Together, large metro areas
treat separately from China, experienced in this region averaged 2.8 percent annual
the worst economic performance in the employment growth (above the region’s 1.6
Advanced Asia-Pacific region. Heavily reliant percent) and 4.9 percent annual GDP per
on gambling tourism from mainland China, capita growth (below the region’s 5.1 percent).
its economic growth came to a halt in 2014 Strong performers in India included Delhi and G LOBA L
after the Chinese government’s crackdown Hyderabad, with Delhi achieving the largest ME T RO
on corruption and graft.10 Gambling revenues employment increase in the region (621,000) MONI TOR
dropped from $44.7 billion in 2013 to $27.7 and Hyderabad boasting the fastest GDP per 201 8
17FIGURE 10
The economic performance of individual metropolitan areas varies
Performance on economic index, 300 largest metros, 2014—2016
Seattle
Salt Lake City Chicago
New York
San Francisco Nashville Washington
San Jose Las Vegas Raleigh
Los Angeles Dallas Atlanta
Austin
Miami
Guadalajara
Mexico City Santo Domingo
Nominal GDP (Billions $, PPP rates),
2016
500
1,000
1,500
Economic performance index
Top 20% performers by region Sao Paulo
All others
Seattle
Nominal GDP(Blns $, PPP rates), 2016
Boston 500
Salt Lake City New York
Philadelphia 1,000
San Francisco Washington
San Jose 1,500
Las Vegas Raleigh
Los Angeles Phoenix Atlanta
Dallas
San Diego Economic performance index (Regional
Austin
Houston All others
Miami
Top 20 %
Guadalajara
Mexico City Santo Domingo
B R OOK IN GS
MET R OP OLI TA N
P OL I CY
P R OGRA M
Source: Brookings analysis of Oxford Economics data
18F I G U R E 1 0 (continued)
Stockholm
Moscow
Amsterdam-Rotterdam
Dublin
Warsaw
London Eindhoven-Den Bosch
Stuttgart Cologne-Düsseldorf
Paris
Bucharest Urumqi
Barcelona Istanbul Beijing
Madrid Tianjin
Valencia Seoul-Incheon
Tokyo
Cairo Chongqing Osaka-Kobe
Delhi N
Abu Dhabi
Mecca Hanoi
Jeddah Hyderabad
Bangkok Manila
E
Jakarta
Pretoria
Auckland
Sydney
Melbourne
Stockholm
Nominal GDP(Blns
Erdos $, PPP rates), 2016
Beijing
Dublin Tianjin
500
Amsterdam-Rotterdam Seoul-Incheon
Warsaw 1,000
London Eindhoven-Den Bosch Tokyo
Brussels 1,500 Zhengzhou Osaka-Kobe
Frankfurt Luoyang Bunan-Ulsan
Paris Yancheng Kitakyushu-Fukuoka
Stuttgart Zhenjiang
Munich Vienna-Bratislava Chengdu Changzhou Shanghai
colour Wuhan
Hangzhou Ningbo
#1a9850
Chongqing Wenzhou G LOBA L
Milan Changsha
#f46d43 ME T RO
Fuzhou Taipei MONI TOR
Xiamen
Guangzhou 201 8
Rome Zhaoqing Shenzhen
Barcelona
Hanoi Hong Kong
Madrid
19
Valenciacapita growth rate (8.7 percent). In Southeast ►► North America’s large metro areas
Asia, Manila and Hanoi were also in the top expanded employment by 2.3 percent and
quintile of performance. Besides Jakarta’s GDP per capita by 1.5 percent annually, above
average performance, most major metro the regional averages of 1.8 percent and
areas in Indonesia (Medan, Semarang, and 1.3 percent, respectively. West Coast metro
Surabaya) underperformed the region as a areas continued their strong performance.
whole, with employment growth rates lagging No metro area expanded its GDP per capita
more than 1 percentage point below the faster than San Jose (7.5 percent). Among
region’s average. the top quintile of metro performance in
North America, every metro area experienced
►► While Eastern Europe and Central Asia employment growth of at least 2.5 percent
registered one of the slowest employment and eleven of the highest performers
(0.2 percent) and GDP per capita growth increased GDP per capita by more than two
(1.1 percent), large metro areas collectively percent. Aside from Toronto and Vancouver,
outperformed the region. But this masks Canadian metro areas struggled compared
differences between Eastern Europe and to their U.S. peers. Edmonton and Calgary
Central Asia. In Eastern Europe, Istanbul had experienced low employment growth and
the highest economic performance in the a sharp decline in GDP per capita over the
region, adding an additional 460,000 jobs period, due in part to low commodity prices.
and expanding GDP per capita by 3.9 percent.
Bucharest and Warsaw exceeded the region’s ►► Western Europe: Out of the 43 large metro
employment and GDP per capita growth areas in Western Europe, 24 had lower
by three percentage points. In contrast, growth in employment compared to the
Kiev (Ukraine), Baku (Azerbaijan), Almaty region’s 1.2 percent growth and 31 had lower
(Kazakhstan), Moscow, and Saint Petersburg GDP per capita growth compared to the
(Russia) in Central Asia exhibited slower region’s 1.4 percent growth. Dublin exceeded
employment growth and a decrease in GDP Western Europe’s GDP per capita by nearly
per capita. 20 percentage points.14 London registered an
increase of 364,000 employees, the largest
►► Latin America had the weakest economic overall job gain in the region, while Stockholm
performance across all regions with an recorded the second largest increase in GDP
annual decrease in employment (-0.5 per capita ($3,800). Eindhoven-Den Bosch,
percent) and GDP per capita (-1.3 percent). Amsterdam-Rotterdamtwo major industry
Large metro areas in the region experienced hubs in Northern Europerecorded robust
declines as well in both indicators, in growth in GDP per capita as well. Metro
particular Brazilian cities such as Brasilia, areas in the southern portion of Western
Belo Horizonte, Curitiba and São Paulo. A Europe varied in their performance. Madrid,
subset of Latin American metro areas did Barcelona, Valencia and Lisbon exceeded
counter regional trends. Mexico City and regional growth, while Marseille, Venice,
Guadalajara led metropolitan growth in the Rome, Milan, Naples, Florence, and Athens
region, with 3 percent GDP per capita growth lagged regional averages.
each and a combined addition of 366,000
jobs. Santo Domingo achieved the fastest ►► Middle East and Africa registered 2.2
increase in GDP per capita in the region (5.7 percent employment annual growth and 0.8
B R OOK IN GS percent) raising living standards by $1,200 percent GDP per capita annual growth from
MET R OP OLI TA N from 2014 to 2016. 2014 to 2016. With the exception of Pretoria,
P OL I CY
P R OGRA M
20which recorded the highest regional growth
in employment (7.6 percent) and robust
GDP per capita growth (3.5 percent), major
African cities underperformed compared with
their Middle Eastern peers. Johannesburg
and Cape Town registered negative GDP
per capita growth and limited employment
growth. GDP per capita decreased by 3.4
percent in Lagos and by nearly 7 percent in
Luanda. See below for more details on the
50 metropolitan areas in the Middle East
and North Africa that we profile in a special
feature.
G LOBA L
ME T RO
MONI TOR
201 8
21S P E C I A L F E AT U R E
METRO MENA: EXAMINING ECONOMIC PERFORMANCE IN
T H E M I D D L E E A S T A N D N O R T H A F R I C A’ S L A R G E S T C I T I E S
The Middle East and North Africa (MENA) region Today, many MENA countries face a combination
grew considerably over the past half a century, of difficult economic conditions and uncertain
driven by high population growth rates and an political transitions. Oil-producing countries
accumulation of wealth generated, directly and are struggling to deal with low oil and natural
indirectly, from oil. While the region achieved gas prices, which also indirectly affect MENA
notable advances in human development, it countries that rely on remittances and
fell short in creating economic opportunities, development assistance. In Libya, Syria, and
especially for women and youth.15 For over a Yemen, armed conflict has devastated the lives
quarter century, the MENA region has had the and livelihoods of people and refugees from
highest youth unemployment rates and the these countries have taxed the infrastructure
lowest female labor force participation rates in and services of neighboring countries. Until
the world.16 recently, in Egypt, Tunisia, and Bahrain, political
transitions have taken precedence over
In addition, for decades now, the MENA region economic reform. Saudi Arabia is undergoing an
has also been an epicenter of conflict and ambitious, multifaceted transition that involves
instability, from the long-standing Israeli- political, social, and economic dimensions.
Palestinian conflict, to successive wars in Iraq,
to ongoing civil wars in Libya, Syria, and Yemen. Within this context of economic and political
MENA is the birthplace of al-Qaida and the uncertainty, this special feature examines the
Islamic State (ISIS) and currently has the highest contribution of 50 of the MENA region’s large
population share of refugees in the world.17 As metropolitan areas to the region’s employment
B R OOK IN GS such, the MENA region continues to command and GDP per capita growth. Data limitations
MET R OP OLI TA N the attention of the world to a far greater prevent us from covering all large urban areas in
P OL I CY degree than its 6 percent population share the region.18 The countries covered in this special
P R OGRA M might otherwise warrant. feature differ from those of the Middle East and
22Africa region presented in the main report. They compared to other regions. This was the case for
include the Middle Eastern countries of Bahrain, nearly all MENA countries (Figure 12). However,
Iraq, Iran, Israel, Jordan, Kuwait, Lebanon, Oman, there were significant differences across
the Occupied Palestinian Territories, Qatar, Saudi countries.
Arabia, Syria, the United Arab Emirates (UAE),
and Yemen and the North African countries of In the Gulf States of Bahrain, Kuwait, Qatar, and
Algeria, Egypt, Libya, Morocco, and Tunisia. the UAE, GDP per capita in large metropolitan
areas was roughly equal to that in other areas of
A . Large metropolitan areas in the country. The near parity of income per capita
MENA account for over half of in the Gulf States may reflect their small size
the region’s economic activity. or the fact that oil and natural gas extraction is
typically located outside metro areas.
The 50 large metropolitan areas included in
this special feature contributed substantially to In Iran, Yemen, Tunisia, Oman, and Egypt, GDP
economic activity and output. As a whole, these per capita in large metro areas was more than
metropolitan areas accounted for 28 percent twice as high as in other areas of the country.19
of the region’s population and 32 percent of its It is interesting to note that these five countries
employed workforce but generated just over half were among those that experienced social and G LOBA L
(50 percent) of the region’s economic output in economic unrest during the past decade. Thus, ME T RO
2016 (Figure 11). This is similar to the catalytic while metropolitan areas can help generate MONI TOR
economic role played by the 300 largest higher levels of income per capita, large 201 8
metropolitan areas worldwide (Figure 1). differences may point to structural inequalities
that policymakers should address. SPECIAL
It follows that GDP per capita in the MENA F E AT U R E :
region was higher in large metropolitan areas as METRO MENA
23FIGURE 11
Large metro areas generated half of the MENA region’s production
Large metro areas’ share of MENA totals, 2016
60.0%
50.5%
50.0%
40.0%
32.1%
30.0% 27.6%
20.0%
10.0%
0.0%
Nominal GDP Employment Population
Source: Brookings analysis of Oxford Economics data
FIGURE 12
GDP per capita was higher in large metro areas as compared to the rest of
their country across nearly all MENA countries, with large regional variations
Percentage difference of GDP per capita between large metro areas and the rest of their
country, 2016
195.6%
181.8%
178.3% 180.8%
156.6%
86.9% 87.4%
77.2% 77.9% 79.7%
55.6% 60.9%
25.7%
- 3.3% 1.3% 2.5% 5.6%
E
n
r
t
a
ya
l
ria
co
n
an
q
n
en
a
an
pt
ae
ta
ai
bi
isi
UA
ai
no
Ira
Ira
y
Lib
oc
rd
Om
w
ge
m
Qa
Isr
hr
ra
n
Eg
ba
Ku
Ye
Tu
Jo
or
B R OOK IN GS
iA
Al
Ba
Le
M
ud
MET R OP OLI TA N
Sa
P OL I CY
P R OGRA M
Source: Brookings analysis of Oxford Economics data
24Finally, in Saudi Arabia, GDP per capita in large the national average. In terms of GDP per capita,
metro areas was 26 percent higher than in other 23 metropolitan areas experienced growth rates
areas of the country. In Libya, Israel, Algeria, that were higher than the national average,
Morocco, Lebanon, Jordan, and Iraq, GDP per while 27 experienced growth rates that were less
capita in large metro areas was between 50 and than the national average.
90 percent higher than in other areas of the
country. In these countries, the gap between These averages also mask notable differences
GDP per capita in metro and other areas was across metropolitan areas. In terms of
close to regional and global averages, reflecting employment, Abu Dhabi’s growth rate was 3.4
the enhanced productivity benefits of metro percentage points higher than UAE’s national
areas. We note, however, that data for Iraq and average of 0.7 percent, followed by Jeddah
Libya only include the capital cities of Baghdad and Mecca, which were 2.8 and 2.3 percentage
and Tripoli. Including other large metro areas points higher than Saudi Arabia’s national
such as Basra (Iraq) and Benghazi (Libya) would average of 3.1 percent, respectively. The findings
likely increase the observed difference in GDP for Jeddah and Mecca likely reflect massive
per capita between metro and other areas of construction and infrastructure investments
Iraq and Libya. taking place in the greater combined Jeddah-
Mecca metropolitan area.
B . Between 2014 and 2016,
metropolitan areas in MENA In Egypt, employment growth was significantly
contributed slightly more lower than national rates in Suez, which was 3
to economic growth in their percentage points lower than Egypt’s national
countries than other areas. average of 2.3 percent. Similarly, Doha’s
employment growth was 2.2 percentage points
Economic growth in the MENA region lower than Qatar’s national average of 4
between 2014 and 2016 was fairly evenly percent. In the case of Doha, lower employment
distributed across metro areas and other areas. growth may reflect infrastructure projects taking
Employment growth rates across metro areas place outside the capital in the lead up to the
was 3.4 percent between 2014 and 2016, slightly 2022 World Cup, including the construction of an
higher than the 3.1 percent employment growth entirely new city, Lusail, to the north of Doha.
in MENA as a whole (Figure 13). Similarly, GDP In terms of GDP per capita, relatively strong
per capita grew by 1.5 percent across metro performers included Port Said, whose growth
areas, slightly higher than the 1.4 percent growth rate was 3.3 percentage points higher than
in GDP per capita across the region. While Egypt’s (2.3 percent). In Jeddah and Mecca,
metro areas contributed disproportionately to growth in GDP per capita was, respectively,
economic growth, this contribution was less than 2.5 and 2.8 percentage points higher than
that of the 300 largest metro areas’ contribution Saudi Arabia’s 0.6 percent. In Agadir, GDP per
to worldwide growth (Figure 3). capita growth was 2.6 percentage points higher
than Morocco’s 1.4 percent. Agadir had solid
Some metropolitan areas experienced growth employment growth, reflecting the emergence
in employment and GDP per capita that was of the area as a prime tourist destination and G LOBA L
higher than national averages while others leader in renewable energy. ME T RO
lagged behind. Of the 50 metropolitan areas MONI TOR
covered in the report, slightly more than half Growth in GDP per capita was significantly 201 8
(26) experienced employment growth rates lower than the national average in Suez, which
that were higher than their national average was 4.7 percentage points lower than Egypt’s SPECIAL
between 2014 and 2016 while 24 experienced 2.3 percent, followed by Manama, which was F E AT U R E :
employment growth rates that were lower than 2.4 percentage points lower than Bahrain’s 3.7 METRO MENA
25FIGURE 13
Large metro areas in MENA grew at a slightly faster pace than the region
FIGURE 13
Compound annual growth rate, 2014–2016
4.0%
3.5% 3.4% 3.4%
3.5%
3.1%
3.0%
2.5%
1.9% 1.9%
2.0%
1.5%
1.5%
1.4%
1.0%
0.5%
0.0%
Real GDP GDP per capita Employment Population
MENA largest metro areas MENA region
Source: Brookings analysis of Oxford Economics data
percent. The finding that Suez (at the south growth of 4.1 percent compared to the average
end of the Suez Canal) is lagging in terms in the UAE of 0.7 percent and growth in GDP per
of employment and GDP per capita growth capita of 3.2 percent compared to the national
suggests that efforts to expand the Suez Canal average of 2.3 percent. The finding suggests
has yet to ripple through the regional economy. that Abu Dhabi, which has the largest sovereign
At the same time, Port Said (at the north end wealth fund in the region and the second largest
of the Canal) is leading, possibly due to the in the world after Norway, was not as aggressive
development of the large Zohr gas field project. as other oil-producing states in cutting back on
public employment and finances in the face of
C . Over both the short term lower oil prices.
(2014 to 2016) and long term
(2000 to 2016), about one- Other pockets of growth included four of
third of metropolitan areas in six metropolitan areas in Egypt, three of
MENA expanded employment four metropolitan areas in Saudi Arabia, two
and GDP per capita at a faster metropolitan areas in Israel, and one metropolitan
clip than their respective area in each of Algeria, Morocco, and Tunisia.
nations. Agadir was the only pocket of growth in Morocco
(out of seven Moroccan metropolitan areas
Some of the large metropolitan areas covered included in the analysis). Notably, none of the 12
in this section stood out as “pockets of growth,” metropolitan areas covered in Iran were pockets
meaning that they exceeded national averages in of growth during the 2014 and 2016 period.
B R OOK IN GS terms of both employment growth and growth of
MET R OP OLI TA N GDP per capita. In total, 13 of the 50 metropolitan Taking a longer time horizon, covering the period
P OL I CY areas were pockets of growth. One key standout from 2000 to 2016, we find that 34 metropolitan
P R OGRA M was Abu Dhabi, which experienced employment areas experienced employment growth rates and
2626 experienced growth rates in GDP per capita It is interesting to note that nearly half the short-
higher than the national average. As a result, term pockets of growth also performed similarly
nearly one-third of MENA’s large metropolitan in the longer term, indicating that they have
areas (15) were pockets of growth between been consistently driving their countries’ growth.
2000 and 2016. These included seven (out of 12) These include Algiers, Al-Mansura (Egypt), Tel
metropolitan areas in Iran, two in Algeria, two in Aviv, Agadir, Jeddah, and Tunis. These pockets
Tunisia, one in Israel, and one in each of Morocco of growth have been consistently surpassing
and Saudi Arabia. national figures and contributing positively to
their country’s economies.
FIGURE 14
About one-third of large metro areas in MENA are expanding employment and
GDP per capita faster than their respective nations
Performance status, 50 of the largest metro areas in the MENA region, 2014—2016
Tabriz
Algiers Tunis Orumiyeh Rasht
Oran Tel Aviv
Constantine
Sousse
Port Said Beirut Kermanshah Qom
Tehran Mashhad Growth Status
Sfax Tripoli Al-Mansura Haifa Baghdad Esfahan All others
Amman
Growth Status Alexandria Ahvaz
Pockets of growth
Mahalla el-Kubra Suez Kuwait City Kerman
All others Cairo Shiraz Zahedan
Tanger Manama
Pockets of growth Medina Doha Sharjah Nominal GDP(Blns
Meknès Riyadh Abu Dhabi Dubai
Rabat Jeddah Muscat 100
Fès
Mecca 200
Casablanca Nominal GDP(Blns $, PPP rates), 2016
300
Marrakech 100 Sana’a’
400
200 Aden
Agadir 300
400
Nominal GDP (Billions Growth status
$, PPP rates), 2016
Pockets of growth
100 All others
200
300
400
G LOBA L
ME T RO
Source: Brookings analysis of Oxford Economics data
MONI TOR
201 8
SPECIAL
F E AT U R E :
METRO MENA
27B R OOK IN GS
MET R OP OLI TA N
P OL I CY
P R OGRA M
28CONCLUSION
T
his report reaffirms the economic power of large cities in the global
economy. In 2016, the 300 largest metropolitan economies accounted
for under one-quarter of the world’s labor pool but nearly half of global
output. These large metro areas continued to be critical sources of
economic opportunity between 2014 and 2016, accounting for disproportionate
shares of global job and GDP growth.
These statistics partly reflect trends occurring their surrounding hinterlands. While this report
in particular world regions, both emerging and is not definitive on this account, it does reveal
advanced. Most prominently, China’s dramatic mixed evidence that regional inequalities are
urbanization has resulted in more than one-third growing in these advanced economies. Rather,
of the world’s 300 largest metropolitan areas the largest disparities in GDP per capita between
now calling that country home, underscoring that cities and their adjacent regions continue to be
the world’s urban growth story cannot be told in emerging markets, largely due to the low living
without a deliberate focus on China. standards offered outside of the biggest cities.
This report also took a unique look at large For local leaders, the “place age” demands
metropolitan economies in the Middle East and an understanding of metropolitan economic
North Africa, a region that urgently must address advantages and weaknesses in a regional and
twin challenges related to security and economic global context, with an ardent focus on policies
opportunity. Currently, large metro areas in MENA that will improve wages and incomes. For national
are neither leading on economic growth nor leaders, the place age demands a greater focus
holding the region back; that will need to shift to on sub-national economic trends, as those seem
improve both opportunity and regional security. to be increasingly important in shaping national
and international policy and politics. Our hope is
In North America and Europe, there is a newfound that this report provides insights for both sets of
focus on the disparities between large cities and policymakers.
G LOBA L
ME T RO
MONI TOR
201 8
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