In search of lost optimism. A year of PPK - Llorente & Cuenca
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SPECIAL REPORT
In search of lost
optimism.
A year of PPK
Madrid, July 2017
Barcelona • Bogota • Buenos Aires • Havana • Lima • Lisbon • Madrid • Mexico City • Miami • New York City • Panama City • Quito • Rio de Janeiro • Sao Paulo
Santiago • Santo Domingo • Washington, DC
IN SEARCH OF LOST OPTIMISM.
A YEAR OF PPK
1. INTRODUCTION
One year and one day after he started his term,
1. INTRODUCTION
LLORENTE & CUENCA Peru reflects on The Dreams of President
2. A YEAR OF PPK
Kuczynski1. At that time, two potential scenarios were discerned
3. OPTIMISTIC START
for how the country could evolve. On the one hand, possible
4. IMPASSE IN THE peaceful political coexistence between the PPK and Keiko Fujimori
CONSTITUTIONAL DESIGN
that would assure stable governing conditions and sustainable
5. CLOUDS ON THE HORIZON
economic growth and, on the other, a state of permanent conflict
6. ECONOMY UNDER POLITICAL between the legislative and executive powers that would cast its
PRESSURE
shadow over political stability and private investment.
7. RECOVERING OPTIMISM
8. IN SEARCH OF LOST OPTIMISM
Today, one year after analyzing these two possibilities, we know
AUTHORS that the difficulties in managing to create harmonious coexistence
between a government without parliamentary support and an
opposition with legislative majority is one of the reasons for the
growing censure that Pedro Pablo Kuczynski has been suffering.
The LLORENTE & CUENCA Latinamerica Public Affairs team
has prepared an assessment that not only analyses the main
factors that have caused the political turbulence that Peru has
experienced, but also considers a new outlook for his second year
of mandate. This analysis sets out the main milestones that have
shaped this first year of the PPK government, and that marks
the course for what could happen in the next, an analysis that is
essential for understanding what is actually taking place in Peru.
1
Developing Ideas The Peruvian economy, a success story by José Carlos Antón
http://www.developing-ideas.com/2016/10/17/peruvian-economy-a-success-story/#.
WXcCbojyiUk
2
IN SEARCH OF LOST OPTIMISM.
A YEAR OF PPK
2. A YEAR OF PPK 3. OPTIMISTIC START
President Pedro Pablo At the end of an intense
Kuczynski’s first year was electoral campaign whose
intense. The optimism at outcome was uncertain until
the start of his term, due the very last week, with PPK
to generating positive winning by fewer than 50,000
expectations in the business votes over Keiko Fujimori,
sector, slowly started to there were quite positive
fade away as the economy expectations both from citizens
underwent a deterioration and private investors.
“The optimism [...] triggered by strong political
slowly started to pressure. However, only days In the business sector, because
into the second year of the PPK this was the first time in
fade away as the
administration, the possibility decades that the second
economy underwent a of better understanding presidential round was
deterioration triggered between his government contended by two candidates
by strong political and the opposition, led by who both looked favorably
Keiko Fujimori, who controls on private investment, and
pressure” the Congress, opens up the because the composition of
prospect of a recovery of the new Congress made one
optimism due to the eventuality think that there would also
of a better business climate in be a friendly stance toward
Peru. In light of recent months promoting private enterprise.
though, this optimism will
remain cautious, as this five- But the election results in 2016
year political term will never be entailed another novelty for the
free from complexities. Peruvian institutional system.
It was the first time in many
President Kuczynski with Fernando Zavala, minister of Economy and Finance, years that a single opposition
during his swearing-in ceremony party–the Popular Force–
gained a crushing majority in
the Congress that would let it
control the legislative process
and closely supervise and
monitor the government via
the instruments established by
the Constitution.
These factors all made it clear
that the main challenge in
the 2016-2021 term of office
would not be economic, given
the similar outlooks of the
main parties represented
in Congress, but essentially
Source: https://www.flickr.com/photos/presidenciaperu/35450345156/in/album-72157682468470094/
3
IN SEARCH OF LOST OPTIMISM.
A YEAR OF PPK
political: How to articulate 4. IMPASSE IN THE
harmonious coexistence CONSTITUTIONAL DESIGN
between a weak government
like the PPK, due to its scant The underlying cause of
parliamentary representation, this impasse is a problem in
“The Fujimori opposition, and a solid opposition like that the design of Peru’s political
due to having a huge led by Keiko Fujimori, in light system, which was analyzed
of its overwhelming majority in well by electoral affairs analyst
Congressional majority, legislative power. Fernando Tuesta2, who observed:
can censure ministers ‘Peru is the only country in
as often as it likes, Thus at the outset of PPK's the region in which –being
something that would government in July 2016 presidential– mechanisms are
one could outline two basic embedded that are typical of
be uncommon in a scenarios for how the country parliamentary systems inherited
parliamentary system” would evolve. from Europe, creating a hybrid
that has negative effects on
On the one hand, the optimistic Peruvian politics.’
scenario, which would entail
the establishment of basic He adds: ‘In parliamentary
political agreement between systems, the government is
PPK and Keiko Fujimori that— elected in parliament by a
without ever becoming a stable majority of a party or coalition
and permanent alliance— of parties. While it does
would let propitious conditions exercise a function of political
for governance be established, control, the government can
helping to set in motion the govern and the parliament
implementation of pending can supervise its work. There
reforms to promote economic cannot be a government with
growth and improve quality of a majority parliamentary
life in areas including the job opposition’.
market, the pension system and
decentralization. Thus, in a situation like the one
Peru is going through today,
On the other hand, the the Fujimori opposition, due to
pessimistic scenario, consisting having a huge Congressional
of growing stand-offs between majority, can censure ministers
the government and the as often as it likes, something
opposition that could place that would be uncommon in a
governability at risk due to parliamentary system in which
the creation of an institutional if the government lost majority,
impasse. This could cause the the prime minister would be
mandate to lose due to the directly censured and the
permanent duel between those elections moved forward.
seeking presidential vacancy
and those wanting to dissolve
the Congress.
2
El Comercio, Cernsorship in a poorly designed building by Fernando Truesta.
http://elcomercio.pe/politica/censura-edificio-mal-disenado-fernando-tuesta-427718
4
IN SEARCH OF LOST OPTIMISM.
A YEAR OF PPK
5. CLOUDS ON THE Other menacing factors have
HORIZON included the accusations of
corruption of politicians and
At the start of his mandate, officials from the Operation Car
the opposition expressed wash (Lava Jato) case in Brazil,
support critical to the PPK which led to an international
administration, including a arrest warrant being issued
record and nearly unanimous for former President Alejandro
investiture vote by Congress of Toledo; along with other
the ministerial cabinet led by denunciations, ex-President
Fernando Zavala–as required Ollanta Humala and his wife
by the Constitution–as well as Nadine Heredia have been
“The growing clashes granting legislative powers to ordered preventative detention
the government. for 18 months; and this could
between the government also affect ex-President Alan
and the opposition were Nonetheless and one year later, García and former candidate
not the only source of the great difficulty is apparent Keiko Fujimori for having
in establishing elementary allegedly received illegal
complications for the harmony between the PPK election contributions from the
country’s institutions government and the Congress company Odebrecht.
and economic endeavors” dominated by Keiko Fujimori’s
party. This has frequently seen There was also the strong
them taking the negative road impact of the coastal El Niño,
of discord described above, with landslides and flooding
darkening political stability and causing severe damages to the
the business environment. national infrastructures and
family estate, especially in the
This was the consequence north of the country.
of the opposition outlining
a complicated and often Finally, there was the
aggressive relationship with lamentable action of the
the government, which was Republic’s comptroller
clearly expressed in the censure general Edgar Alarcón, whose
at the end of 2016 of minister of performance damaged the
Education Jaime Saavedra. economic process. Its apex
was the recording of private
The growing clashes between conversations he held with
the government and the ministers, which were later
opposition were not the only leaked to the media in the
source of complications for context of the debate on the
the country’s institutions and Chinchero Airport project in
economic endeavors. Cusco.
5IN SEARCH OF LOST OPTIMISM.
A YEAR OF PPK
As a consequence of To start, public opinion approval
the political turbulence on President Kuczynski’s
surrounding this project, performance dropped, according
and in the midst of heavy to Ipsos, from 63 percent in
parliamentary pressure, the September 2016 to 34 percent
minister of Transport and in June 20173, while disapproval
Communications Martín leaped from 17 percent in
Vizcarra stepped down –who is September 2016 to 58 percent in
also first vice-president– as well July 2017.
as minister of Economy and
Finance Alfredo Thorne. The consequences of the
political stalemate between
The broadcasting of the government and opposition,
“Public opinion approval aforesaid conversations also along with natural disasters,
on President Kuczynski’s put Congress’s attention on Operation Car wash and the
performance dropped the President of the Council of comptroller general’s actions
[...] from 63 percent in Ministers, Fernando Zavala. In have all led to virtual paralysis
the end, the comptroller was in public sector investment
September 2016 to 34 dismissed by the Congress of and spending decisions, and an
percent in June 2017” the Republic. unstable political panorama
that has damaged investment
decisions in the private sector,
6. ECONOMY UNDER all of which has resulted
POLITICAL PRESSURE in lower economic growth
and worsening business
The evolution of the economy expectations.
and business climate in the
country were among the The Economy and Finance
main factors affected by Ministry once again in July
rising political tensions in the reduced GDP growth forecasts
first year of government of for 2017, now standing at 2.8
President Kuczynski. percent, a considerable drop
compared to forecasts at the
beginning of the year.
Figure 1: Evolution of President Kuczynsky's approval rate
As a consequence of the
65%
negative effect of the political
70 61% 62%
60
59% 59%
53% 53%
57% arena on the economic
50
48%
41%
panorama, the expectations
38%
40 31%
45% 35% of both people and companies
30 24%
17%
24%
have been severely damaged.
20 14% Approval rate
10 Disapproval rate
0
July August September October November December January February March
3
El Comercio: Low approval rate for
2016 2017
PPK reached 34 percent, according to
Ipsos Peru. http://elcomercio.pe/politica/
Source: Datum
aprobacion-ppk-baja-34-julio-ipsos-
peru-442560
6IN SEARCH OF LOST OPTIMISM.
A YEAR OF PPK
On one hand, according to the prosperity generated by
the Datum poll in July 20174, high mineral prices and the
70 percent of Peruvians boost from industry and the
believe that the economy is services sector that occurred
worsening, the highest rate yet during the construction of
during PPK's government. The the mining megaprojects.
prevailing sentiment in public Today, there is not only no
opinion is that the economy investment in new mining
has come to a standstill, and projects or in production
that possibilities of finding jobs infrastructure, but this absence
continue to reduce. is being reproduced in the
discouragement and paralysis
On the other hand, investment of literally thousands of
prospects have also weakened, endeavors of all sizes, in which
“Acceptance that the which has been building up the true invigoration of the
Peruvian economic for several years now. The economy rests.’
situation is breaking down president of the Peruvian
is assumed not only by Institute of Economics (IPE), Acceptance that the Peruvian
Roberto Abusada, points economic situation is breaking
the political opposition out with great concern the down is assumed not only by
but also by President economic trajectory of the last the political opposition but
Kuczynski himself” four years5: also by President Kuczynski
himself, who just pointed out
‘Thus, private and public self-critically that ‘I thought I
investment started the long and could do more in my first year
inevitable process of collapse of office.’6
due to misrule. All of these
misfortunes were masked by ‘We were going to grow
by four or four and a half
Chief of State supervising the temporary relocation plan for families from percent, yet we are at three
Quebrada San Ildefonso percent. Operation Car wash
has eaten up one point and
the coastal El Niño another
4
Diario Gestión: A year of PPK's
government, 70 percent of the people
feels the economy is at a standstill. http://
gestion.pe/economia/ano-inicio-gobierno-
ppk-70-siente-que-economia-se-esta-
enfriando-2194737
5
Diario El Comercio: Of dialogues and
bridges by Roberto Abusada.
http://elcomercio.pe/opinion/columnistas/
dialogos-puentes-roberto-abusada-441219
6
Diario La República: The government
must seek justice and that the economy
does not collapse José Ugaz.
http://elcomercio.pe/opinion/columnistas/
Source: https://www.flickr.com/photos/presidenciaperu/34100417275/in/album-72157680128636142/ dialogos-puentes-roberto-abusada-441219
7IN SEARCH OF LOST OPTIMISM.
A YEAR OF PPK
half a point. This is what the 7. RECOVERING OPTIMISM
people feel. Of course, nobody
foresaw that Car wash would Peru’s political and economic
be as disastrous as it was. scenario and prospects suffered
It was one thing in Brazil great setbacks during the
and then it landed here and first year of governance of
the accusations commenced President Kuczynski. However
against former presidents and paradoxically, at the onset
and companies and this has of year two, some events have
depleted trust. We had to cancel occurred that come together
extremely large contracts: to create a cautious possibility
the southern gas pipeline, that a turning point may be on
“Relations between the the motorway to Chosica, the way.
president and Congress Chavimochic 3. Other projects
could change from the that have nothing to do with The first and most important
open battle seen during Operation Carwash, like the was the meeting held in
Metro Line 2 and the airport the first fortnight of July
the first year to a time of (Chinchero), also had problems. between President Kuczynski
greater cooperation” If the natural disasters are and opposition leader Keiko
added, the result is that we’ve Fujimori, which led to forecasts
undoubtedly had a bad year.’ that relations between the
president and Congress could
President PPK also change from the open battle
acknowledges that optimism seen during the first year to
was too high7: a time of greater cooperation
without loss of typical tensions
‘I think we were too optimistic inherent in democracies during
and took too long to realize the second year.
the full extent of the issues
we inherited from the past This meeting was the second
government, which were not they have had since elections in
clear when you interviewed June 2016 and, unlike the first,
me last time. Who knew that which had no positive outcome,
in the past five years over 80 this time some results are
thousand additional officials taking place that would have
had been hired to the central seemed impossible to attain
government? This has been only weeks earlier.
revealed along the way and
has curbed the government’s To start, after Kuczynski and
effectiveness.' Fujimori met, both stated
that the Congress would
7
Diario El Comercio: Of dialogues and bridges by Roberto Abusada.
http://elcomercio.pe/opinion/columnistas/dialogos-puentes-roberto-abusada-441219
8IN SEARCH OF LOST OPTIMISM.
A YEAR OF PPK
review its blocking of several Another sign that government-
legislative decrees issued opposition relations are
by the government on the improving is that in the last
“This improved advancement of concession fortnight the aggressiveness
processes. of the opposition parliament
understanding between legislators toward the
government and The Fujimori majority Congress Ministerial Cabinet has
opposition will continue also approved the government’s reduced, while government
proposal to replace the former statements towards Fujimorism
hinges however on the
comptroller general –who have also been more moderate.
debate on [...] the pardon was dismissed due to serious
of former President breaches of conduct– leading The possibility that this
Alberto Fujimori” to the appointment of Nelson improved understanding
Shack, a solvency expert who between government and
can contribute to the quality opposition will continue hinges
of the control system without however on the hottest topic in
damaging ongoing investments Peruvian politics: the debate on
in Peru, the total opposite of the pardon of former President
what had been occurring in the Alberto Fujimori.
past.
This issue has been handled by
In this regard, we should point the government and opposition,
out that another weakness but also by Fujimorism, due
in Kuczynski’s first year of to the existence of extremely
term was the fight against divergent points of view on
corruption. this issue in the heart of the
Fujimori family.
‘The bottom line is not positive,
as the president never had this On the one hand, it would be
topic on his agenda (…) and I complex for President PPK
think he has paid the price: to grant a pardon to Fujimori
Not having been prepared for due to the nature of the crimes
something that was so clear, for which he was convicted,
which is that Peru is suffering as presidential pardon cannot
from structural, systemic be bestowed when there are
and generalized corruption, crimes for the abuse of human
which should be one of the rights. There are however
main urgent priorities of any those who believe that the
government,’ commented José president does not have any
Ugaz Sánchez Moreno, chair of constitutional impediment to
International Transparency and granting pardon. Based on this
former ad hoc anti-corruption argument the head of state is
attorney8. considering the possibility of
issuing ‘medical pardon.’
8
Diario La República: The government must seek justice and that the economy does
not collapse José Ugaz. http://larepublica.pe/impresa/politica/893652-el-gobierno-debe-
buscar-que-no-haya-impunidad-y-que-la-economia-no-colapse
9IN SEARCH OF LOST OPTIMISM.
A YEAR OF PPK
But the topic of pardoning as economist Gianfranco
former President Fujimori is Castagnola, executive president
also leading to a growing and of Apoyo Consultoría, who
open confrontation between his bases this claim on three
two children who are involved factors. The first is the
in politics and speculation on aforementioned dialogue
the possibility that the Popular between President Kuczynski
Force parliamentary legislators and Keiko Fujimori.
will divide between those
who follow Keiko and those The second factor that endorses
supporting Kenji. optimistic forecasts is related
to ‘the loosening of public
Apart from this, it is true that spending as the only tool that
after decided open antagonism could reverse the stagnation
between the government and in the production sector in the
the Fujimori opposition in very short term.’ According to
Congress in the last 12 months, Castagnola, one of the main
“Many believe that there the doors are slowly and mistakes in the economic policy
hesitantly opening for a less during the first year was a
may be space for ‘cautious unstable scenario than the one counterproductive adjustment
optimism’9 on prospects experienced in the past year. to public spending in the last
of economic growth in the quarter of 2016.
next 18 months” In this regard, many believe
that there may be space The third factor to nourish
for ‘cautious optimism’9 on optimism is the commissioning
prospects of economic growth of public-private partnerships
in the next 18 months, such planned by the new minister of
Transport and Communications
Chief of State, PPK, supervising the Quebrada San Idelfonso área, in Trujillo Bruno Giuffra, along with the
region, presiding the agreement for the construction of dams and water redefinition of the role of the
diversion to Moche river general comptroller of the
republic that the new holder of
this post will assume.
Castagnola concludes that,
if these conditions concur,
one could think of 7 percent
growth in private investment
–after four years of falls– and 4
percent for the GDP in 2018.
9
Diario El Comercio: Is there room for
optimism? http://elcomercio.pe/opinion/
columnistas/hay-espacio-optimismo-
gianfranco-castagnola-443053
Source: https://www.flickr.com/photos/presidenciaperu/34100417275/in/album-72157680128636142/
10IN SEARCH OF LOST OPTIMISM.
A YEAR OF PPK
8. IN SEARCH OF LOST The scene is complex, but there
OPTIMISM are reasons for reviving the
optimism felt at the beginning
Forty years ago, Pedro Pablo of PPK's government one year
Kuczynski wrote a book that ago, which was lost along the
was published by Pricenton road due to the convergence of
University and entitled a set of political factors that
"In order for this Democracy under Economic damaged the economy.
improvement to take Pressure, in which he described
place, this must be the what happened in the first At least this is what President
government of President Pedro Pablo Kuczynski believes,
term in which politics Fernando Belaunde Terry who after acknowledging that
manages to organize (1963-1968), in which he was the his first year in office ‘was
the economy and not secretary general of the Central undoubtedly bad,’ partly due to
the reverse, as has Reserve Bank. ‘our mistake in underestimating
what could happen,’ he now
been Peru’s pattern in This government ended before thinks that the second year can
recent decades". its time due to a military coup be much better.
d’état that remained in power
for 12 years. However, in order for this
improvement to take place,
Now history has erected this must be the term in which
Kuczynski not as a writer but politics manages to organize
as the president of a nation the economy and not the
in which he must direct an reverse, as has been Peru’s
economy under political pattern in recent decades.
pressure, and the result need
not be the same. In this regard, during the next
12 months, the government
of President Kuczynski will
continue to seek lost optimism.
11IN SEARCH OF LOST OPTIMISM.
A YEAR OF PPK
Autores
Luisa García is partner and COO for Latin America of
LLORENTE & CUENCA. Expert on management of regional
accounts and strategic consulting, Luisa is partner and Chief
Operating Officer for Latin America of
LLORENTE & CUENCA, president of the Chamber of
Commerce of Spain in Peru and the chapter chair of the
Peruvian chapter of the Young Presidents’ Organization
(YPO). She is also member of the Advisory Board of Action Aid and of
the advisory committees of Enseña Perú (Teach Peru) and the Asociación
para el Progreso de la Dirección (Association for Management Progress)
in Peru. Luisa was considered one of the 50 more influent Latin American
businesswomen by the magazine Latin Business Chronicle in 2013 and
was recognized as the Businesswoman of the Year in Latin America,
Businesswoman of the Year in the field of Corporate Services and Woman
of the Year in the Communication World at the Stevie Awards for Women
in Business.
lgarcia@llorenteycuenca.com
Luis Miguel Peña is Partner andG eneralManager at
LLORENTE & CUENCA Perú. Peña had been Prior to
his position in Perú, Peña had beenresponsiblefor thef
Litigation andOrganizations andP eople areas for more than
6 years. He has 15 years of experience in communication
consulting in the development of strategic communication
plans in different areas, particularly in crisis projects and
judicial procedures for clients from different sectors, including food and
beverage, tourism, consumer goods, technology, financial services and
public institutions, among others. Peña has worked in litigations related
to different fields of law (criminal, procedural, commercial and tax law),
and in 2008 and 2009 he and his team won an International Stevie Award
and a European Excellence Award.
lmpena@llorenteycuenca.com
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Santo Domingo Sao Paulo
Iban Campo Marco Antonio Sabino
Managing Director Partner and Brazil Chairman
icampo@llorenteycuenca.com masabino@llorenteycuenca.com
Av. Abraham Lincoln 1069 Juan Carlos Gozzer
Torre Ejecutiva Sonora, planta 7 Managing Director
Tel. +1 809 6161975 jcgozzer@llorenteycuenca.com
Rua Oscar Freire, 379, Cj 111,
Cerqueira César SP - 01426-001
Tel. +55 11 3060 3390Developing Ideas by LLORENTE & CUENCA is a hub for ideas, analysis and trends. It is a product of the changing macroeconomic and social environment we live in, in which communication keeps moving forward at a fast pace. Developing Ideas is a combination of global partnerships and knowledge exchange that identifies, defines and communicates new information paradigms from an independent perspective. Developing Ideas is a constant flow of ideas, foreseeing new times for information and management. Because reality is neither black nor white, Developing Ideas exists. www.developing-ideas.com www.uno-magazine.com AMO is the leading global partnership of corporate and financial communications consultancies. Our best-in-class approach brings together local-market leaders with unrivalled knowledge of stakeholder perceptions, financial markets and cross-border transactions in the key financial centers of Europe, Asia and the Americas. Providing sophisticated communications counsel for reputation management, M&A and capital market transactions, media relations, investor relations and corporate crises, our partner firms have established relationships with many S&P 500, FTSE 100, SMI, CAC 40, IBEX 35 and DAX 30 companies. www.amo-global.com
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