INDUSTRIAL MARKET OVERVIEW - 2021 | CZECH REPUBLIC - WIKIBANKS

Page created by Jay Lyons
 
CONTINUE READING
INDUSTRIAL MARKET OVERVIEW - 2021 | CZECH REPUBLIC - WIKIBANKS
2021 | Czech Republic

Industrial
Market
Overview
INDUSTRIAL MARKET OVERVIEW - 2021 | CZECH REPUBLIC - WIKIBANKS
2

                                                      Macroeconomic overview
                              Q1 |Czech Republic
Research & Forecast Report | Colliers International

                                                                                                 The Czech Republic remained                               consumer spending is also
                                                                                                 in a state of emergency during                            expected to lead the recovery,
                                                                                                 the entire first quarter of 2021.                         thanks to the accumulated
                                                                                                 This condition was ended in                               savings      amongst      the
                                                                                                 mid-April and lasted a total of                           population.
                                                                                                 189 days. Despite some
                                                                                                 progress of distributing the                              What could be surprising,
                                                                                                 vaccine to the population, it is                          despite reported closures of
                                                                                                 still quite slow in comparison                            hundreds of restaurants and
                                                                                                 with other countries in Europe.                           even several retail brands and
                                                                                                 As the count of new confirmed                             chains,     is     that      the
                                                                                                 cases of COVID decreases, the                             unemployment        rate     has
                                                                                                 whole country looks forward to                            remained at similar levels
                                                                                                 loosening the measures. There                             recorded last year, reaching
                                                                                                 is however a long road back to                            4.2% at the end of March 2021.
                                                                                                 normality and the government,                             This represents approximately
                                                                                                 both current and future (which                            307,000 jobless individuals in
                                                                                                 will be elected in autumn),                               the country. This rate is
                                                                                                 must avoid the mistakes made                              expected to remain for some
                                                                                                 last year.                                                time during 2021 and even
                                                                                                                                                           decrease further forward in
                                                                                                 As we could expect, the                                   2022, once the economy can
                                                                                                 prolonged state of emergency                              operate without limitations.
                                                                                                 affected the forecasts for GDP.
                                                                                                 In general, we are still                                  One big question mark still
                                                                                                 expecting a rebound in H2                                 hangs over inflation. There
                                                                                                 2021     from     the    current                          were several scenarios warning
                                                                                                 slowdown and through 2022.                                about the inevitability of
                                                                                                 According        to       Oxford                          increasing consumer prices
                                                                                                 Economics, the        forecasted                          however, many economists
                                                                                                 growth for this year is 3.3%.                             and institutions are now
                                                                                                 Industry and exports are still                            forecasting a much more
                                                                                                 the main economic engines,                                conservative outlook for Czech
                                                                                                 even with several bottlenecks                             Republic, ranging from 2.0% to
                                                                                                 in supply chains that can limit                           2.5% in 2021.
                                                                                                 their outputs. By the time
                                                                                                 shops       re-open,      strong

                                                      Gross domestic product                      8,0
                                                      (%)
                                                                                                  6,0

                                                                                                  4,0

                                                                                                  2,0

                                                                                                  0,0

                                                                                                 -2,0

                                                                                                 -4,0

                                                                                                 -6,0

                                                                                                 -8,0
                                                                                                                                                            2018

                                                                                                                                                                                 2021
                                                                                                          2011

                                                                                                                 2012

                                                                                                                        2013

                                                                                                                               2014

                                                                                                                                      2015

                                                                                                                                             2016

                                                                                                                                                    2017

                                                                                                                                                                   2019

                                                                                                                                                                          2020

                                                                                                                                                                                        2022

                                                                                                                                                                                               2023

                                                                                                                                                                                                      2024

                                                                                                           Czech Republic                                  Czech Republic predictions
                                                                                                           Eurozone                                        Eurozone predictions
                                                      Sources: Colliers International, Oxford Economics
3

                                                                                                       Research & Forecast Report | Colliers International
                                                                                                       Q1 |Czech Republic
Czech industrial market
Top 3 Transactions               Tenant           Property          Size (sqm)     Transaction
of Q1 2021
                                                  Panattoni Park
                                 Tchibo                             73,100         Renegotiation
                                                  Cheb
                                 Wistron
                                                  CTPark Brno       65,300         Renegotiation
                                 InfoComm
                                 Damco Czech      P3 Hradec
Sources: Industrial Research                                        41,600         Renegotiation
Forum, Colliers International    Republic         Králové

                                Supply and Vacancy                 reached     329,100     sq    m.
                                                                   Availability of larger space
                                With 68,000 sq m of newly          remains quite limited, with only
                                completed warehouse space in       8 properties offering existing
                                Q1 2021, the total stock in the    space in excess of 10,000 sq m.
                                Czech Republic now stands at       Combined      with    the    low
                                9.17 million sq m. The newly       average vacancy rate, it creates
                                completed space comprises 5        an ideal market environment
                                new buildings across the           for build-to-suit developments.
                                country, with 41% of the space     Thanks to the limited supply of
                                being delivered to the Pilsen      land and lengthy permitting
                                region. The second highest         processes,     landlords     will
                                supply of space was in the         remain in a strong negotiating
                                Moravia-Silesia         region,    position.
                                receiving 37% of completed
                                space, followed by the Greater     Demand
                                Prague (19%) and Liberec
                                regions (2%).                      Gross take-up in Q1 2021
                                                                   reached a new all-time high of
                                By the end of Q1 2021, vacancy     765,600 sq m, registering a
                                stood at just 3.6%, which is 61    44% increase on the previous
                                bps lower than in Q4 2021. The     quarter, and an incredible
                                total volume of available space    147% increase YoY.
4        Q1 |Czech Republic
Research & Forecast Report | Colliers International

                                                      Industrial stock and                                         Occupied Stock              Vacant Stock
                                                      vacancy in regions
                                                      (sq m thousands)
                                                                                         Greater Prague

                                                                                                  Plzeň

                                                                                         South Moravia

                                                                                         Moravia-Silesia

                                                                                       Central Bohemia

                                                                                        Ústí nad Labem

                                                                                      Rest of the regions

                                                                                                                   500
                                                                                                            0

                                                                                                                                               2 000
                                                                                                                            1 000

                                                                                                                                    1 500

                                                                                                                                                          2 500

                                                                                                                                                                    3 000

                                                                                                                                                                            3 500
                                                      Sources: Industrial Research
                                                      Forum, Colliers International

                                                      Annual supply
                                                                                                    Q1        Q2       Q3     Q4      f Q2             f Q3       f Q4
                                                      (sq m thousands)
                                                                                           800

                                                                                           700

                                                                                           600

                                                                                           500

                                                                                           400

                                                                                           300

                                                                                           200

                                                                                           100

                                                                                             -
                                                      Sources: Industrial Research                  2016        2017        2018        2019            2020         2021
                                                      Forum, Colliers International

                                                      Annual take-up                                       Net Take-Up                       Renegotiations
                                                      (sq m thousands)
                                                                                         1 750

                                                                                         1 500

                                                                                         1 250

                                                                                         1 000

                                                                                           750

                                                                                           500

                                                                                           250

                                                                                             0
                                                      Sources: Industrial Research                 2016         2017        2018            2019          2020        2021 Q1
                                                      Forum, Colliers International
5

Key market figures

                                                                                            Research & Forecast Report | Colliers International
                                                                                            Q1 |Czech Republic
            Stock (sq m)                                 Vacancy Rate

            9.17 mln                                     3.6%

            Q1 Gross Demand (sq m)                       Prime Rent

            765,600                                      €4.50 - 4.85

           Q1 Supply (sq m)                              Under Construction (sq m)

           68,500                                        557,500

                     This record take-up is a result     of €4.00 - €4.35 per sq m per
                     of realized demand that was         month.       The      previously
                     pent-up, in previous quarters,      common incentives of one
                     by the pandemic. This growth        month rent free per year of
                     in demand confirms a robust         lease is no longer the standard
                     and growing industrial &            and developers now provide
                     logistics market. Net take-up       incentives based on location,
                     reached 299,400 sq m, which is      lease size, lease length and
                     a 10% decrease QoQ and a            most importantly, the tenant
                     185% increase YoY. The share        profile and covenant.
                     of renegotiations on total gross
                     take-up for Q1 2021 was 61%         Outlook
                     and we expect this share to
                     become the norm as the              Approximately 557,500 sq m of
                     growth of the market is not as      warehouse space was under
                     rapid as in previous years. The     construction at the end of Q1
                     trends in the property market       2021. The level of pre-leased
                     together          with       the    space under construction is
                     unemployment rate of around         78%, which is in line with our
                     4.2%,     create     a   market     expectations. Due to the
                     environment where companies         continued situation with low
                     prefer to stay in current           vacancy, we do not expect this
                     premises     and     renegotiate,   trend to change as developers
                     rather than facing the issues of    are less willing and under less
                     moving to another location and      pressure to speculate with new
                     hiring new staff.                   developments. In Q2 2021, we
                                                         expect 293,400 sq m of space
                                                         to be delivered to the market, a
                     Rents                               continuous increase in size of
                                                         new space entering the market.
                     Prime industrial rents in           This trend proves that the
                     Prague and Brno stand in the        Czech Republic is still one of
                     range of €4.50 - €4.85 per sq       the      most       sought-after
                     m, per month. Other highly          countries within Europe for the
                     sought-after regions such as        development of new industrial
                     Ostrava, Plzeň and Ústí nad         and logistics properties.
                     Labem have rents in the range
For more information

Industrial Agency                                                          Research & Forecasting

Harry Bannatyne                                                            Josef Stanko
+420 602 490 217                                                           +420 728 175 024
harry.bannatyne@colliers.com                                               josef.stanko@colliers.com

Managing Partner

Tewfik Sabongui
+420 777 150 669
tewfik.sabongui@colliers.com

This report gives information based primarily on Colliers International data, which
may be helpful in anticipating trends in the property sector. However, no warranty is      Na Příkopě 859/22
                                                                                           Slovanský dům B/C
given as to the accuracy of, and no liability for negligence is accepted in relation to,
the forecasts, figures or conclusions contained in this report and they must not be
relied on for investment or any other purposes. This report does not constitute and
must not be treated as investment or valuation advice or an offer to buy or sell           110 00 Praha 1
property. ( May 2021 ) © 2021 Colliers International.
Colliers International is the licensed trading name of Colliers International Property
Advisers UK LLP which is a limited liability partnership registered in England and
Wales with registered number OC385143. Our registered office is at 50 George
Street, London W1U 7GA.
You can also read