TRANSUNION VEHICLE PRICING INDEX Q1 2021
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TransUnion Vehicle Pricing Index Q1 2021
Executive Summary The used-to-new ratio remained consistent during 2020,
rising to 2.4 in Q1 2021 (from 2.3). In the used vehicle
The TransUnion SA Vehicle Pricing Index (VPI) measures market, 38% of sales are under two years old (in line with
year-on-year price increases for new and used vehicles 2019 trends). Financed demo models made up 6% of used
from a basket of passenger vehicles of the 15 top financed deals — indicating consumers are choosing older
manufacturers by volume. The index is created from vehicles as pressure on disposable income increases.
vehicle sales data collated from across the industry. According to the National Association of Automobile
Manufacturers of South Africa (NAAMSA), there’s a YoY
In Q1 2021, the VPI for new and used vehicle pricing decline of 6.8% in new passenger vehicle sales for Q1 2021
has risen to 8.8% and 3.7% (from 4% and 1.4% in (vs. Q1 2020).
Q1 2020, respectively).
There’s more movement in new and used car financing
The macroeconomic outlook has been challenging; in the following price brackets: below R200K, between
latest figures reveal -4% annualised GDP growth in R200K and R300K, and over R300K. During the past
Q1 2021 — an improvement on -6.2% in Q4 2020. quarter, financing shifted from under R200K into the
Since 2020, consumer confidence remained below zero as R200K-R300K bracket — suggesting growth in consumer
business confidence dropped from its highest level from purchasing power and their ability to purchase more
2020. Household debt to income rose dramatically from expensive vehicles. We expect the demand shift from new
2019 to 2020, adding significant pressure on consumers’ to used vehicles to continue in the upcoming months as
disposable incomes. The exchange rate has been vehicle prices rise in real terms. The export market has
fluctuating around R14.5, indicative of a stronger rand. remained resilient throughout the pandemic, seeing a
While this makes import goods cheaper, unstable demand 4% rise in total exports in Q1 2021 YoY.
makes it difficult for OEMs to accurately forecast supply.
Positive interest rate indicators and low inflation have
Total finance agreement volumes in the passenger pushed demand for quality used vehicles — not new
market increased marginally by 3% in Q1 2021 YoY. vehicles — straining supply and causing the used vehicle
New passenger finance deals decreased by 5%, pricing index to surpass inflation for the first time since
while used passenger vehicles rose by 7.4% YoY. Q3 2010. This trend will continue as demand for quality
used vehicles continues without stable supply.
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The South African automotive market will be adopting terms, with more consumers expected to re-enter the
right to repair laws to encourage competition and new vehicle market as right to repair becomes prevalent.
sustainability. After-market and value-added products Uncertain times lie ahead as rises in unemployment and
will be priced separately from new vehicles, ensuring more more lockdowns put even more pressure on disposable
transparency and providing more consumer options that income. As consumers deal with the impacts of negative
create opportunities for businesses. exchange and annualised GDP growth, debt-to-income
ratios and demand for used vehicles are increasing.
For the global automotive industry, it’s been another
challenging quarter in the wake of lockdown restrictions While this is a tough time for dealers, there are
and temporary closures. Because of limited supply, opportunities as total cost of ownership declines
the competitive used vehicle market has grown in real and future demand for after-market parts grows.
1. Q1 2021 VPI Results
Q1 Q1 Q4
New Price Index (Figure 1.1 and 1.2) 2021 2020 2020
New vehicle price increases are above inflation,
and we expect this to increase further in the
New
upcoming months.
VPI 8.8% 4.0% 9.6%
Used Price Index (Figure 1.1 and 1.2)
Used vehicle price increases have increased in Used
real terms for the first time since Q3 2010. VPI 3.7% 1.4% 2.9%
CPI 3.1% 4.6% 3.3%
Figure 1.1
Vehicle Pricing Index (VPI) and Consumer Price Index (CPI)
15%
10%
5%
0%
-5%
Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4 Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4 Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4 Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4 Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4 Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4 Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4 Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4 Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4 Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4 Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4 Q1
2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021
Index - New (Rate) Index - Used (Rate) CPI - Base = Jan 2000 (Rate)
Figure 1.2
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2. Q1 2021 Used-to-New Ratio
Q1 Q1 Q4
Used-to-New Ratio (Figure 1.3 to 1.5) 2021 2020 2020
The used-to-new ratio is based on finance deals
registered in the past quarter. The ratio indicates
finance houses are financing 2.41 used vehicles for New
vehicles 32,814 34,559 35,246
every 1 new vehicle, which is expected to increase
in the upcoming quarters.
NAAMSA NEW VEHICLES Used
vehicles 78,950 73,518 81,340
75,206 80,716 96,313 Ratio 2.41 2.13 2.31
Q1 2021 Q1 2020 Q4 2020
Figure 1.4
Figure 1.3
Used-to-New Ratio
3,50
3,00
2,50
2,00
1,50
1,00
Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4 Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4 Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4 Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4 Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4 Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4 Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4 Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4 Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4 Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4 Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4 Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4 Q1
2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021
Total
Figure 1.5
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3. Q1 2020 Vehicle Asset Finance Results
R300,000
Figure 1.6
Vehicle Asset Finance Bands
100%
90%
80%
70%
60%
50%
40%
30%
20%
10%
0%
Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4 Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4 Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4 Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4 Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4 Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4 Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4 Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4 Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4
2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020
>R200K >R200-300K >R300K
Figure 1.7
4 | © 2021 TransUnion LLC All Rights Reserved | 21-16978784. Q1 2021 Top Manufacturers by Sales Volume – Passenger
Manufacturers by Financed Sales Volumes (Figure 1.8 and 1.9)
Toyota and VW performed well in both areas, sharing the top two spots in used car sales,
while Hyundai and Suzuki enjoyed a strong quarter along with VW in new vehicle sales.
Used Passenger Vehicle Sales New Passenger Vehicle Sales
22%
21% 28%
39%
5%
17%
10%
26%
6%
7% 9% 10%
VOLKSWAGEN TOYOTA HYUNDAI MERCEDES-BENZ FORD OTHER VOLKSWAGEN TOYOTA SUZUKI HYUNDAI RENAULT OTHER
Figure 1.8 Figure 1.9
5. 2021 Q1 Top Manufacturers by Sales Volume - Light Commercial
Manufacturers by Financed Sales Volumes (Figure 1.10 and 1.11)
Toyota had an exceptional quarter on the new LCV finance market capturing 39% of total sales volume.
Ford and Toyota dominated the used market securing close to 60% of financed LCVs.
Used Light Commercial Vehicle Sales New Light Commercial Vehicle Sales
9% 2%
2%
9%
7% 32%
9% 39%
16%
16%
27% 32%
TOYOTA FORD NISSAN ISUZU VOLKSWAGEN OTHER TOYOTA FORD NISSAN ISUZU VOLKSWAGEN OTHER
Figure 1.10 Figure 1.11
5 | © 2021 TransUnion LLC All Rights Reserved | 21-1697878Contact us
TransUnion SA Vehicle Pricing Index queries can be directed to:
Michelle van Renen | SA_MkrtComms@transunion.com or +27 11 214 6000
Want to know more?
We can help you gain a more granular view of your operating environment with our Business Intelligence Reports.
With access to extensive data and predictive insights you can identify, segment and effectively target prospective
customers amid tough economic pressures.
For more information on our BI Reports contact: Kriben Reddy | Kriben.Reddy@transunion.com or on +27 11 214 6000
Sources: Figure 1.1 and 1.2 – Industry Sales Data, Figure 1.3 – NAAMSA, Figure 1.4 to 1.11 – New Financed Vehicle Sales Data
TransUnion Auto Information Solutions (TransUnion) obtains information for its analyses from sources, which it considers reliable, but TransUnion does not guarantee the
accuracy or completeness of its analyses or any information contained therein. TransUnion makes no warranties, expressed or implied, as to the results obtained by any
person or entity from use of its information and analyses, and makes no warranties or merchantability or fitness for a particular purpose. In no event shall TransUnion be
liable for indirect or incidental, special or consequential damages, regardless of whether such damages were foreseen or unforeseen. TransUnion shall be indemnified and
held harmless from any actions, claims, proceedings, or liabilities with respect to its information and analysis.
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