INVESTORS RESPOND TO HOPES FOR IMMUNITY - BNY Mellon
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ACCESS A BROADER MARKET PERSPECTIVE
INVESTORS
RESPOND TO
HOPES FOR
IMMUNITY
BY DANIEL TENENGAUZERPROPRIETARY CUSTODIAL FLOWS SHOW THAT
INVESTORS ARE INCREASINGLY ATTRACTED TO
COUNTRIES WITH ROBUST IMMUNE RESPONSE
RATES. VACCINATING AT LEAST 0.33% OF THE
POPULATION DAILY HAS BECOME CRITICAL
TO ACHIEVING HERD IMMUNITY.
BY DANIEL TENENGAUZER
iverging vaccine rollouts how far, and how fast, vaccine distri- iFlow showed that back in late 2020
D are having an outsized
impac t on markets,
favoring countries inves-
tors were avoiding such as the U.S., U.K.
and Israel, while negatively impacting
bution efficacy can shape spending and
production. A return to normal in some
of the more efficient economies could
allow some policy normalization, lifting
yields to levels that are more attractive.
investors were eschewing U.S. gov-
ernment bonds in favor of China and
Eurozone fixed-income markets.
In the backdrop were hopes for sig-
nificant fiscal easing in the U.S., which
economies with comparatively slow Conversely, countries delivering one could result in higher inflation as house-
distribution. shot of the vaccine to less than 0.3% holds deploy savings accumulated
Instead of selling U.S. dollars and of their population each day will likely throughout lockdown, and expecta-
piling into international equities and underperform. tions of a switch in the decade-old pat-
currencies, investors temporarily For now, investors are keeping an tern known as U.S. “exceptionalism,”
increased their U.S. bond buying, eye on global coordination efforts. where the U.S. dollar, U.S. Treasury and
seeing that falling infection rates in the Although speedy progress may be U.S. equities outperformed the rest of
U.S. may deliver herd immunity sooner offset by new strains arriving from the world.
than predicted, possibly as soon as South Africa, Manaus in Brazil or New Fast forward to February 2021 and
April or May. York, with inoculation failing to last iFlow insights demonstrated a flip-
The U.K. begins a phased reopening longer than a few months, herd immu- flop, with marginal demand for U.S.
March 8, after daily new infection rates nity should be possible in the fourth bonds improving, particularly since
have fallen 90% since January. In Israel, quarter of this year in most economies. the second week of January all the way
where weekly new deaths dropped 61% up until the last week of February. A
in February, more than 60% of the pop- FLOWS FLIP-FLOPPED 70bp increase in 10-year Treasury bond
ulation has received at least one dose of SINCE U.S. ELECTION yields to as high as 1.6% so far in 2021
the Pfizer-BioNTech jab. Vaccine impact is already showing up briefly drew meaningful flows away
Investors’ recent about-face toward in asset flows. Following the U.S. pres- from Eurozone fixed-income markets
markets showing improved immuniza- idential elections, a proprietary data- back to the U.S. bond market.
tion amounts to a reconsideration of base from BNY Mellon Markets called At the same time, clouds are formingTRADING PLACES FIGURE 1
The allure of Eurozone bonds may not hold if the region’s vaccine pace slows
OUTFLOW INFLOW
UNITED STATES
ARGENTINA
HUNGARY
POLAND
RUSSIA
PHILIPPINES
CZECH REPUBLIC
COLOMBIA
UNITED ARAB EMIRATES
NORWAY
ROMANIA
DENMARK
JAPAN
HONG KONG
Fixed Income Average Scored Flow*
TURKEY
MALAYSIA
ISRAEL
BRAZIL
NEW ZEALAND
SOUTH AFRICA
EGYPT
INDONESIA
PERU
CHILE
MEXICO
SINGAPORE
SWITZERLAND
SOUTH KOREA
INDIA
THAILAND
AUSTRALIA
SWEDEN
UNITED KINGDOM
CHINA
CANADA
EUROZONE
-0.60 -0.40 -0.20 0 0.20 0.40 0.60 0.80
Standard Deviation December 1, 2020 - March 1, 2021
* Scored flow means average daily net buying or selling scored by the series standard deviation. SOURCE: BNY MELLONSpeed is a more critical element than vaccine type. Assuming immunity holds for six months, a country should vaccinate 60% of its population within 180 days to achieve inoculation. in the geopolitical outlook and denting bond managers, according to iFlow. about 15,000, rising back above 18,000 the attractiveness of international mar- Next, in figure 4 (see page 8), we more recently. The same could be said kets ranging from the Eurozone to Latin looked carefully at the patt erns in about France, where daily new cases America. Lackluster efforts to achieve demand for U.S. debt. While the fourth increased from 13,000 in early January global herd immunity could dent those quarter of last year was still about a to 21,600 more recently. While the economies. swing from U.S. bonds to international number of new cases collapsed in In the chart above (see figure 1), we ones, demand for the U.S. fixed-income Spain, the number of daily new deaths illustrate these trends with the help of market has since improved. In fact, spiked to the highest levels observed iFlow signals for global bond markets. iFlow data show a few weeks of mar- since the outbreak started a year ago. These include flows in and out of both ginal inflows into U.S. bonds between Moreover, with the exception of the sovereign and corporate debt mar- January and February 2021, although Chile, the vaccination pace in Latin kets we analyzed. We show flows in and there is a risk to this continuing if America has been extraordinarily out of bond markets across all coun- hopes for robust vaccine rollout in the slow. This could be the backdrop for tries covered by iFlow. Eurozone and China start to improve. a sharp turnaround in demand for Between early December 2020 and Scored flows turned negative for bonds within the region, as shown in early March 2021, scored flows (aver- Eurozone fixed-income markets in the figure 1 above. aged daily net buying, scored by the same period as they entered positive economy’s standard deviation over territory for U.S. bonds. VACCINATION PACE the period studied) were most neg- A key reason for the swing away DEFINES INVESTMENT ative in the U.S. but most positive in from Eurozone bonds in January Mu c h o f t h e m a rke t d ive r ge n c e China and the Eurozone. China, the and February this year is, in our can be explained by vaccination Eurozone and G10 commodity cur- opinion, the lackluster vaccination rollout efficiency and its impact on rencies such as Canada, Australia and progress there. hospitalizations and death rates. New Zealand hold the most appeal for New cases in Italy have been flat at Speed is a more critical element
CRITICAL CONDITION
New hospital admissions in the U.K. have been falling after two shots were administered
700,000 5,000
1ST SHOT
2ND SHOT 4,500
600,000
NEW ADMISSIONS
4,000
500,000
3,500
Number of Admissions
Number of Shots
400,000 3,000
2,500
300,000
2,000
200,000 1,500
1,000
100,000
500
0 0
20
20
20
20
20
1
1
1
1
1
1
1
1
1
1
1
1
7/
2/
7/
2/
7/
/2
/2
/2
/2
/2
/2
/2
/2
/2
/2
/2
/2
/0
/1
/1
/2
/2
01
06
11
16
21
26
31
05
10
15
20
25
12
12
12
12
12
1/
1/
1/
1/
1/
1/
1/
2/
2/
2/
2/
2/
SOURCE: NATIONAL HEALTH SERVICE
FIGURE 2
than vaccine type. Assuming immu- in Israel, 10,561 infections were doc- Even more encouragingly, for people
nity holds for six months, a country umented, of which 5,996 were symp- 80 years and older, the research found
should vaccinate 60% of its population tomatic COVID-19 illness, 369 required an overall 81% reduction of hospital
within 180 days to achieve inoculation. hospitalization, 229 were severe cases admissions by the fourth week in the
Countries able to vaccinate 0.33% of and 41 resulted in death. The study Scottish study. In short, in the U.K.
their population with one shot every took place from December 20, when and Israel, vaccines should already be
day can achieve a comfortable 60% Israel’s national vaccination drive was helping to reduce the COVID-19 burden
immunization rate. This estimate is launched, to February 1. It also coin- in national healthcare systems.
obtained by the simple ratio of 60 per- cided with Israel’s third and largest We focus on hospitalization rates (see
centage points over 182 days, or six wave of coronavirus infection and figure 2 above) and escalation for two
months (60 ÷ 182 = 0.33). illness. reasons. First, a meaningful reduction
One study, which has been peer Meanwhile, from December to of extreme outcomes may encourage
reviewed and published in the New mid-February, separate researchers skeptics to vaccinate. Second, the most
England Journal of Medicine, took analyzed a data set covering all of concerning worry over the past year
596,618 people who were newly vac- Scotland’s population. Of 5.4 million has been overwhelming healthcare
cinated in Israel and compared them people covered in the study, 1.1 mil- systems.
with unvaccinated controls. Two lion (or 20%) were vaccinated with the So far, the most encouraging data are
doses of the mRNA Pfizer-BioNTech first dose of either Pfizer-BioNTech or emerging out of the U.S., the U.K. and
vaccine reduced symptomatic cases AstraZeneca. Among the 8,000 people Israel, countries running the fastest
by 94%, hospitalizations by 87%, and hospitalized in Scotland in the period, vaccination pace. Since early January,
severe COVID-19 infection by 92%. less than 1% (or 58 people) came daily new cases in the U.S. declined
During a mean follow-up of 15 days from the vaccinated group. from as high as 250,000 to 70,000.A daily vaccination pace reaching
0.3% to 0.45% of the global population
should, in our opinion, support herd
immunity at some point in the fourth
quarter.
In the U.K., the number of new cases the pandemic, according to the study. into a milder illness.
dropped from 58,000 to 6,300. These findings highlight the chal- Assuming a six-month immunity
For Israel, the number of new cases lenges of fast and widespread deploy- window, a pace of delivering one shot
declined from 8,400 to 3,600 and, ment of a variety of vaccines across to 0.33% of the population each day
even though hospitalizations remain borders. This is perhaps the back- would achieve 60% immunity after six
high because of mutant strains of the drop of temporary reversals observed months (0.33 * 182 = 60%). The range
virus and people’s tolerance of social in iFlow back toward the U.S. bond of vaccination pace would be as fol-
distancing is waning, the country has market, found in our own iFlow data lows: 0.27% of the population getting
more than 55% vaccinated. At the discussed above. one shot daily to reach 50% immunity
current pace, the E.U. would take 10 within six months, or 0.41% of the pop-
months, at best, to get there. arlier estimates based on ulation vaccinated daily to reach 75%
SPEED REMAINS THE
PRIMARY RISK
More recently, worries about Variants
of Concern (VoCs) raised some alarm
E highly effective vaccines
held that within the immu-
nity window of six months,
50-60% of the population would have
to be vaccinated in order to create herd
immunity also within six months.
The current vaccination pace stands
at 1.1% of the population receiving daily
vaccines in Israel and 0.68% in the
UAE. For the U.K. it is also quite robust
bells that vaccines may not help achieve effects. At 70% vaccine effectiveness, at 0.58% (see figure 3 below) as it is in
herd immunity after all. A Harvard the threshold for herd immunity will the U.S. at 0.54%. Additional countries
University study, however, shows that rise to roughly 75%. at rates above 0.33% are Morocco, Chile
herd immunity might be achieved if According to the Harvard research, and Turkey.
vaccine rollout is fast enough. Even given high success ratios of the vac- In the Eurozone the pace remains
if vaccine effectiveness falls to 70% cines, a second-best outcome would sluggish, at 0.2% in Spain, 0.17% in
from 95%, the world still has a path to be the development of milder symp- Germany and 0.18% in France. Italy is
achieving herd immunity and ending toms — essentially turning COVID-19 even lower at 0.17%. Canada is at 0.15%.HOT SHOTS
The pace of daily vaccinations is robust in Israel, the U.S. and the U.K.
2.5
% of Population Vaccinated Daily (Weekly Rolling Average)
ISRAEL
UK
2.0
US
BRAZIL
EU
1.5
CHINA
INDIA
1.0
0.5
0
20
20
20
1
1
1
1
1
1
1
1
1
4/
1/
8/
/2
/2
/2
/2
/2
/2
/2
/2
/2
/1
/2
/2
04
11
18
25
01
08
15
22
01
12
12
12
1/
1/
1/
1/
2/
2/
2/
2/
3/
SOURCE: NATIONAL HEALTH DEPARTMENTS, OUR WORLD IN DATA
FIGURE 3
Even more disturbing, the largest and 1 and is now at 0.2%. Most of the lag- four-fold decrease in the risk of asymp-
most populous countries are regis- ging economies will likely double these tomatic infection amongst healthcare
tering very low vaccination strides: daily vaccination paces over the next workers who had been vaccinated for
Brazil is vaccinating only 0.11% daily, several weeks. 12 days or more (75% protection). The
with India and Indonesia at 0.03% and In the U.K., extending the gap level of asymptomatic infection halved
0.04%, respectively. between the first and second shot was in those vaccinated for less than 12
This global divergence is concerning crucial to helping a wider share of the days.
because inoculation may never reach population get at least partially inocu- We believe that such a convergence
the desired levels of 60-75% within the lated. Now Portugal is adopting a sim- in inoculation speed will be the har
critical six-month immunity window. A ilar approach. Some academic papers binger supporting similar patterns to
vicious circle may therefore evolve as now agree that as long as the health those observed toward the last few
more potent variants emerge. system obliges by a second shot admin- months of 2020. In other words, flows
The good news is that countries are istered within the immunity window, may seep back out of U.S. bonds into
improving their pacing and do become tail-risk outcomes of the disease are international markets as those econo
more efficient as a larger variety of unlikely. mies speed up.
jabs are approved and start mass pro- A study released in February by Nevertheless, bumps along the
duction. The U.K., for instance, began Cambridge University Hospitals NHS road will continue to reflect diverging
at 0.12% of its population vaccinated Foundation Trust (CUH) and the approaches from different countries’
daily as of December 14, reaching University of Cambridge analyzed vaccination policies. Many countries
0.58% now. Israel started at 0.09% on results from thousands of COVID-19 are opting to vaccinate different target
December 20, and now stands at 1%. tests carried out on a single dose of groups with essential workers being
The E.U. started at 0.01% on December Pfizer-BioNTech vaccine. It found a classified differently between China,FLIP-FLOP
Recent weeks have seen outflows from U.S. bonds dissipating as investors hoped for a reopening,
while inflows into Eurozone fixed income collapsed
2.0
US FIXED INCOME
1.5
EUROZONE FIXED INCOME
1.0
Percentage Change
0.5
0.0
-0.5
-1.0
-1.5
20
20
20
20
20
20
20
1
1
1
1
/2
/2
/2
/2
1/
6/
1/
5/
0/
5/
0/
14
29
13
28
/0
/1
/3
/1
/3
/1
/3
1/
1/
2/
2/
10
10
10
11
11
12
12
Indexed to October 1, 2020 SOURCE: BNY MELLON
FIGURE 4
the E.U. and the U.S., for instance. India despite its manufacturing prowess,
and China rollouts have been slow so there is a risk of supply shortages given
far, but their vaccine may prove to be the country’s commitment to overseas
more robust against VoCs than those in orders. On the other hand, Beijing may
the West. want to avoid the impression of pri-
The Serum Institute of India (SII) oritizing overseas commitments over
has obtained authorization to manu- domestic needs. Doing so would boost
facture the AstraZeneca Oxford vac- global recovery hopes but delay China’s
cine. It will supply the vaccine to the border reopenings.
Indian government but also to a large Such global efforts will be the
number of low and middle-income main indication of a global recovery,
countries. SII also has contracts in assuming a daily vaccination pace
place to manufacture Novovax, which reaching 0.3% to 0.45% of the global
is the world’s largest vaccine man- population in short order. This pace
ufacturer by number of doses pro- should, in our opinion, support herd
duced and sold globally, deploying immunity in the fourth quarter.
doses in approximately 170 countries iFlow will continue to track Daniel Tenengauzer is Head of Markets
around the globe. these developments quite closely. Strategy at BNY Mellon Markets.
China has belatedly acknowledged Ebbs and flows in global bond and Questions or Comments? Write to
the inadequate speed of its vaccina- equity markets are increasingly more Daniel.Tenengauzer@bnymellon.com
tion program and is now targeting 40% likely to mirror these very same or reach out to your usual
of its population by June. However, vaccination milestones. relationship manager.BNYMELLON.COM
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