Kompendium 5.0 Regulation Section

 
Kompendium 5.0 Regulation Section
Kompendium 5.0
Regulation Section
Kompendium 5.0 Regulation Section
Paris Climate Agreement: Immediate change of direction
Global emissions in gigatons CO2eq
200

180                        Business as usual szenario
                           Today's climate policy
160
                           Today's climate protection pledges
140                        Consistent with the 2° target

120                        Consistent with the 1.5° target
                           Historical
100

 80

 60

 40

 20

   0
       1990
       1992
       1994
       1996
       1998
       2000
       2002
       2004
       2006
       2008
       2010
       2012
       2014
       2016
       2018
       2020
       2022
       2024
       2026
       2028
       2030
       2032
       2034
       2036
       2038
       2040
       2042
       2044
       2046
       2048
       2050
       2052
       2054
       2056
       2058
       2060
       2062
       2064
       2066
       2068
       2070
       2072
       2074
       2076
       2078
       2080
       2082
       2084
       2086
       2088
       2090
       2092
       2094
       2096
       2098
       2100
Source: Climate Action Tracker Project, September 2019

                                                                Regulation   2
Burdensharing: Different sector goals
 Required reduction performance compared to 2005 in percent

                  ETS*               EU-GHG-target         Non-ETS               +
                 sector               (Basis: 2005)         sector
                                                                                 ► Green Deal: Significant
                -21%                    -12%               -10%
                                                                                   tightening of targets
 2020
                                                                                   planned for 2030:
                                                                                     ► Commission: -55%
 2030          -43%                      -40% -34%         -30%                      ► Parlament: -65%
                                                                                 ► The Non-ETS sector should
 Green                                                                             save twice as much in 10
 Deal           TBA                    -55% (?)            TBA                     years after 2020 as in 15
 2030                                                                              years before.
How?      Emission trading                            Inclusion of mandatory
                                                        national targets.        ► The effort per ton of CO2
          Establishment of a
           market stabilization                        Supporting measures,       safed will increase
           reserve                                      for example emission       significantly.
          Avoidance of relocation                      standards
           effects

                                                                                                        Regulation   3
Apart from the amount of emissions: The EU is moving ahead
undeterred
Long term goals of the EU in percent – base year 1990
                                                                                                   +
                                        -20%
Reduction of greenhouse                -21%
emissions
                -40%                                                                                   ► The Commision expects the
                                                                                                         2020 climate targets to be
                                                                                      20%                largely achieved.
Market share of renewables                                                             21%
on grosss final energy consumption                                                                     ► Although the rest of the world
                                                                                             27%         has not yet followed suit, the
                                                                                                         EU plans to tighten ist targets
Efficiency target - reduction
                                                                                                         significantly after 2020.
                                        -20%
of energy consumption per                      -17%
unit of GDP
                                -27%

                                        Target 2020   Forecast 2020   Proposal 2030

Sources: BMWi, UBA, AGEB

                                                                                                                              Regulation   4
WLTP: A new test requires a new limit value setting
WLTP – illustration of an average car trip worldwide
                                      Low                                            Middle                                       High                                  Extra high
                   140                                    The WLTP
                                                   should apply globally.
                   120                          Through the implementation
                                                 of the WLTP the test costs
                                                 of the manufacturers were
                   100                                 intended to be
Velocity in km/h

                                                           reduced.
                   80

                   60

                   40

                   20

                    0
                         0              200                400                600               800               1000               1200               1400               1600               1800
                                                                                           Time in seconds

+                   ► A test cycle should enable a legally compliant comparability.
                    ► Today there are different cycles. EU and China use the NEFZ, the USA and Japan have their own tests.
                    ► The informations on the emissions of a car depend heaviliy on the test cycle; they cannot be simply converted.
                    ► In the WLTP, the tests give higher values ​than in the previous measurement cycle, they are not comparable.
                    ► But: the WLTP will ‘only‘ be a test. It enables comparability under standardized conditions, thus represents an approximation of global driving behavior, but does not determine
                      a value that can be achieved under all circumstances.
Sources: EU, UN

                                                                                                                                                                                     Regulation      5
RDE Tests: Large spread even with maximum standardization
Limits of standardization with the RDE consumption measurement
    1 Measuring technology                                         Expected spread of the results: 8 gCO2/km
• Standardized PEMS system per vehicle (similiar within the organization performing the measurement)
• Calibration of the PEMS system by comparison with test bench measurements.
• But: The achievable measurement inaccuracy with current technology is ± 2,5 percent

    2 Environment & driver                                     Expected
                       Ein einzelner Wert kann nur einen Mittelwert      spread of the results : 10 gCO2/km
                                                                    darstellen.
•     Defined environmental conditions (moderate temperature, good weather, maximum light wind)
•     Trained drivers, who orientate themselves on the gearshift point display and create reproducible journeys
•     But: Even minor deviations, e. g. in wind and driving style, lead to visible scatter.

    3 Route                                                        Expected spread of the results : 12 gCO2/km
•     Trips on a reference route with the same trip time and direction.
•     No fixed time windows but adaptation to comparable traffic volumes on the reference route
•     But: Traffic density, average speed and start / stop proportions are not reproducible.

 4 Vecicle                                                     Expected spread of the results : 6 gCO2/km
• Comparable vehicles in terms of run-in condition, superstructures, tire pressure, etc.
• Comparable vehicle use: payload, electrical consumers, window opening or driving mode.
• But: Reactions to environmental conditions (e. g. temperature) influence consumption.

                                                                                                                  Regulation   6
Better regulations: Emission limits for vehicles do not go far enough
To reduce emissions, users and the state must also be involved
                                                                Integrated approach: Include all areas in regulation

                                                                              Total emission in tons =
                                                            Consumption in liters* Emission factor in CO2/liter * Mileage

    Car industry                                              State                                                    Car driver

        Optimization combustion engine                                Infrastructure condition                                     Driving distance (how
        Alternative fuels                                             Construction sites management                                 much?)
        Lightweight construction                                      Promotion of low-emission drives                             Driving style (how?)
        Electrification of the powertrain                              and fuels                                                    Vehicle selection (with
        Use of digitization (avoidance of parking search              Stock renewal                                                 what?)
         traffic)

+
           ► Vehicle limits regulate only the emission potential.
           ► Real emissions are determined just as much by user behavior and the infrastructure.

                                                                                                                                                                Regulation   7
Limit values only affect new cars
Inventory is not part of regulation

In the EU, a good 15.3 million new    In total, around 255 million passenger
cars were registered per year in                 cars are registered in the EU.
2019.

Sources: ACEA, 2020; VDA ,2020

                                                                      Regulation   8
Fewer new registrations in the eastern member states
                 Volume ratio of new registrations to vehicle
Country          inventory in 2018
Luxembourg                                                 12,7%                                       Share of new registrations
Belgium                                                     9,4%
Denmark                                                     8,4%                                                 < 2,5 percent

United Kingdom                                              7,5%
                                                                                                                  > 2.5 percent
Germany                                                     7,3%
Sweden                                                      7,3%                                                   > 5 percent
Austria                                                     6,9%
                                                                                                                   ≥ 7,5 percent
France                                                      6,8%
Slovenia                                                    6,4%
Ireland                                                     5,8%
Spain                                                       5,5%
Netherlands                                                 5,2%
Italy                                                       4,9%
Czech Republic                                              4,5%
Portugal                                                    4,3%
Slovakia                                                    4,2%
Hungary                                                     3,8%
Croatia                                                     3,6%
Finland                                                     3,5%
Estonia                                                     3,4%
Latvia                                                      2,4%
Cyprus                                                      2,4%
Poland                                                      2,3%
Lithuania                                                   2,3%
Romania                                                     2,0%
Bulgaria                                                    1,2%
                                                                   Sources: Eurostat 2020, ACEA 2019
Malta, Greece                                               N.N.

                                                                                                               Regulation          9
European Burden Sharing in the Transport Sector
Reduction targets of the EU-15 countries for the period 2005 to 2030

                                                                                        Netherlands
             Luxemburg

                           Schweden

                                                          Germany
                                      Denmark

                                                                                                                                                        Portugal
                                                                                                                    Belgium
                                                Finland

                                                                                                                                                                         Greece
                                                                                                         Austria

                                                                                                                                      Ireland
                                                                    France

                                                                                                                                                Spain
                                                                                                                              Italy
                                                                               UK
    5
    0
   -5
 -10
 -15
 -20
 -25
 -30
 -35
 -40

                                                                         Reduction Target             Status 2017

Source: EU Kommission; EEA (V23)

                                                                                                                                                                   Regulation     10
The strictest CO2 target values for passenger cars apply in the EU
In g CO2/km according to New European Driving Cycle (NEDC)
                                               Actual values 2002 – 2018                                                               Target values 2020 – 2030
   230
   210                     213                                                                                     135
             205
   190      187                                                                                                    130
   170      172                                                                                                    120

   150                                                                                                             115

   130                                                                                                                          125

   110                                                                                                                          117
                                                                                                                                                                99
                                                                                                                                      95              105       93
    90
                                                                                                                                                                81
    70                                                                                                                                                                 74
                                                                                                                                                                       59
    50
           2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018                       2020 2021 2022 2023 2024 2025 2030
                                             US       EU       Japan       China*

+          ► The EU limit is expected to remain the strictest in the world until 2030.
           ► In the USA, passenger cars account for only about one third of new registrations, the emission value of the light trucks in 2017 was 208.2 g/km, the planned
             limit value for 2025 was 140 g/km (EU LNfz 2017: 156 g/km; 2025: 125 g/km)
           ► In 2018, the EU Commission decided to reduce the limit by 15 percent between 2021 and 2025 and to set a minus of 37.5 percent by 2030.
           ► Under the Green Deal, European targets for 2025 and 2030 are expected to be further tightened.
*Without diesel vehicles
Source: ICCT, 2020

                                                                                                                                                               Regulation   11
In 2019 it looked like the 2021 taget values were far away
Data for manufacturers with over 200,000 new registrations in the EU28

    Calculation of the target value in gCO2/km until 2019                  Calculation of the target value in gCO2/km from 2020
          X=130 gCO2/km +0.0457*(Ø New car mass in kg – 1,392.4kg)               X=95 gCO2/km +0,0333*(Ø New car mass in kg – 1,392.4kg)

 170

 120

   70

   20

  -30

                                                      Emissions 2019   Target Value 2021   Way to go

Source: EEA, 2020

                                                                                                                                  Regulation   12
Emissions from new cars down sharply
                              Average CO2 emissions of new cars 2019
                                                                                                      CO2 Emissionen
Country                       in g per km
                                                                                                          < 100 g per km
            Netherlands                        98.43                              Higher emissions
                Portugal                      105.32                                 in the East.
                                                                                  Four EU countries       < 110 g per km
                    Malta                     109.42                                 below 110.
               Denmark                        111.89                               One below 100          < 120 g pro km
                  Greece                      113.75
                                                                                                          < 130 g per km
                   France                     113.98
                  Irleand                     115.32                                                      ≥ 130 g per km
                  Croatia                     115.60
                      Italy                   119.27
                  Finland                     119.40
                    Spain                     119.72
                 Belgium                      121.32
                Slovenia                      121.52
            Netherlands                       123.71
                     EU 28                    122.39
                Romania                       124.34
                 Sweden                       125.48
                  Austria                     126.84
                  Cyprus                      127.69
                        UK                    127.95
          Czech Republic                      128.65
                 Bulgaria                     130.10
                 Slovakia                     131.22
                Hungary                       131.84
               Lithuania                      131.97
                    Latvia                    131.98
               Germany                        133.00
                  Poland                      133.46
                                                                       Sources: EEA, 2020
            Luxembourg                        137.57

                                                                                                            Regulation     13
Pooling: Three cross-group associations to date
Existing brand pools in the passenger car sector

   Pool 14                        Pool 13   Pool 12    Pool 11      Pool 10     Pool 9     Pool 8
     VW                           Toyota      Land-     Suzuki      Renault     Peugeot   Mitsubishi
    Skoda                         Mazda      Rover      Suzuki       Dacia       Opel       Corp.
     Audi                                    Jaguar    Thailand     Atovaz      Citroen   Mitsubishi
     Seat                                               Suzuki       Alpine                Europe
   Porsche                                             Magyar                             Mitsubishi
   Bugatti                                              Suzuki                            Thailand
                                                        Maruti

    Pool 7                         Pool 6    Pool 5      Pool 4       Pool 3    Pool 2     Pool 1
  Kia Corp.                       Hyundai    Honda        Ford          FCA     Daimler     BMW
     Kia                           Czech     Motor       Werke       FCA USA     AMG       BMW M
  Slovakia                        Hyundai   Honda UK   Ford India       Alfa-               Rolls-
                                   Assan     Honda        Ford        Romeo                 Royce
                                  Hyundai    Turkiye     Motor         Tesla
                                   Motor                 Volvo      (ab 2019)
                                                       (ab 2020)      Honda
                                                        Polestar       (from
Source: EEA, 2020; Automobilwoche 2020                   (from         2020)
                                                         2020)

                                                                                          Regulation   14
Light commercial vehicles also move into focus
Emissions of new registrations in g CO2/km according to New European Driving Cycle
                                                               Actual values 2009 – 2018                                                                           Target values 2020 – 2030

                                                                                                                                                      250   166            135                    140          103
 250

 200                                                                                                                                                  200

 150                                                                                                                                                  150

 100                                                                                                                                                  100

   50                                                                                                                                                  50

                                                                                                                                                                                   2023
                                                                                                                                                            2020

                                                                                                                                                                   2021

                                                                                                                                                                           2022

                                                                                                                                                                                           2024

                                                                                                                                                                                                   2025

                                                                                                                                                                                                               2030
                                                       2006

                                                                                              2011

                                                                                                                                 2016
          2000

                 2001

                           2002

                                  2003

                                         2004

                                                2005

                                                                2007

                                                                        2008

                                                                                2009

                                                                                       2010

                                                                                                     2012

                                                                                                            2013

                                                                                                                   2014

                                                                                                                          2015

                                                                                                                                        2017

                                                                                                                                               2018
                                                              USA      EU      Japan     China
*Without diesel vehicles
Source: ICCT, 2020

                                                                                                                                                                                                  Regulation          15
LNfz: In 2018, all manufacturers undercut their emissions target
Data for manufacturers with over 50,000 new registrations in the EU28
                                                                    Opel
               Daimler   Ford Werke   Volkswagen   Nissan        Automobile      Renault         FCA Italy       Peugeot   Citroen
 210

 160

 110

   60

   10

  -40

                                  Emissions 2018   Target 2018       Difference to the target of the year 2018

Source: EEA, 2020

                                                                                                                           Regulation   16
RED II: Renewable Energy Directive sets targets for 2030
RED II shifts transportation targets to advanced biofuels and includes PtX
  14%
                                             Target for 2030
                                                                                    +
                                                                                        ► RED II (Renewable Energy Directive) is to be transposed into national
  12%
                                                                                          law by mid-2021.
                              3,4%
  10%                                                                                   ► Target: 32% of energy consumption of electricity, heat, transport
                                                                                          should be renewable in 2030.
                                                               1,7%
   8%                                                                                   ► Transport target: nominal quota of 14% renewable energy sources in
                              3,5%
                                                                                          transport energy consumption.
                                                               1,8%
   6%                                                                                   ► Advanced biofuels and biofuels from residues can count double
                                                                                          toward the nominal quota.
   4%                                                                                   ► Electricity in road transport can be credited 4 times, in rail transport
                               6%                               6%                        1.5 times.
   2%                                                                                   ► Food-based biofuels should not be expanded and should not exceed a
                                                                                          7% share in any country.
   0%
                                                                                        ► PtX can be credited if 70% emission reduction is achieved.
                             nominal                            real
                                                                                        ► Calculation method to be available by 01/22.

           Conventional biofuels       Advanced biofuels   Biofuels from residues       ► With the French electricity mix, 70% is already achieved today.
Source: Öko-Institut, 2019

                                                                                                                                                        Regulation   17
Those who emit a lot of CO2 also pay a lot
Taxation of fuels within the EU in euro cents per liter - Status: 22.02.21
                                        0                 30          60              90        120                      0   30          60                90              120

                                Italy                                                                   Netherlands                                                        111,6
                                                                                         86,8
                            Belgium                                                     84,5
                                                                                                              Finland                                                 102,0
                              France                                                   83,6                   Greece                                                 100,9
                             Finland                                                 78,8                        Italy                                              100,2
                            Sweden                                                  78,0                     Sweden                                               95,6
                       Netherlands                                                  76,9                    Portugal                                             95,0
                           Portugal                                                76,5                    Denmark                                               94,0
                             Ireland                                               75,6                        France                                           93,6
                          Denmark                                              70,4                        Germany                                            88,8
                          Germany                                             67,7                            Ireland                                        87,5
                           Slovenia                                           67,2                           Belgium                                       83,5
                             Greece                        Diesel             66,8                            Estonia        Gasoline                   78,3
                             Croatia                                         65,8                             Croatia                                  77,0
                               Malta                                         65,7                           Slovakia                                  75,9
                               Latvia                                      62,5                                 Malta                                 75,4
                           Hungary                                        59,7                                  Latvia                               73,7
                             Cyprus                                       59,5                                  Spain                             69,3
                             Austria                                      59,4                        Czech Republic                              68,8
                           Slovakia                                      58,7                                 Austria                             68,4
                               Spain                                     57,9                              Lithuania                             66,9
                     Czech Republic                                     57,0                            Luxembourg                              65,0
                             Estonia                                    56,8                                Slovenia                           64,4
                          Lithuania                                     56,4                                  Cyprus                          61,7
                             Poland                                   53,2                                  Hungary                          59,9
                       Luxembourg                                    52,0                                     Poland                       57,6
                           Romania                                   51,5                                   Romania                      54,6
                            Bulgaria                                48,9                                     Bulgaria                   52,2
Source: EU Kommission DG Transport, Weekly Oil Bulletin

                                                                                                                                                                  Regulation       18
Guiding Instrument for Energy and Industry: The ETS (Cap and Trade)
Cap - The state specifies a reduction
Volume of certificates in the European Emissions Trading Scheme (ETS) in millions of tons

           Cap                    Cap                                           Cap
                                                                                3. Trading period           Reduction rate until 2020
           1. Trading period      2. Trading period                                                                                                     Reduction rate
2400                                                                                                                -1.74%
                                                                                                                                                             after
2200                                                                                                                                                        2020
                                                                                                                                                            -2.2%
2000
                                                                                -21%
1800
                                                                                                                                                      Target
1600                                                                                                                                                   2030
1400

1200

1000
           2005                2008     2009     2010      2011      2012      2013     2014        2015   2016    2017      2018       2019   2020   2030

+         ► Precisely: the emission target of -21 percent is safely achieved by the falling cap.
          ► Allocation: initially 20 percent auction, to increase to 60 percent by 2020.
          ► Flexibel: Which trading participant provides the savings is not mandated.
Sources: EU, DIW

                                                                                                                                                             Regulation   19
Guiding Instrument for Energy and Industry: The ETS (Cap and Trade)
Trade - Emissions trading ensures efficient distribution of reduction burdens
Fall 1:                                                        Fall 2:
Emission restriction                                           Emissions trading – Certificate price at 30 euros per ton
Past           Permitted    Reduction    Total                 Past          Permitted Certificates Reduction      Made    Reduction      Trade      Trade         Total
emissions      future       costs /ton   expendi-              emissions     future    received in costs /ton      Reducti costs          In tons    in Euro       expenditure
in tons        emissions                 ture                  in tons       emissions tons                        on                                              after trade
               in tons                                                       in tons                               in tons

                                                     Plant 1
      5,000         4,500           20     10,000                    5,000                  4,500         20        1,000        20,000                                        5,000
                                                                               Total
                                                                                                                                             500        15,000
                                                     Plant 2                   9,000
      5,000         4,500           50     25,000                    5,000                  4,500         50           0              0                                       15,000

     10,000         9,000                  35,000    Total         10,000       9,000       9,000                   1,000        20,000       500      15,000                 20,000

+
            ► In the example, plant 1 makes the entire reduction, but is reimbursed three quarters of the costs through emissions trading. In the example, both plants save
              several thousand euros compared to an emissions restriction.
            ► The concrete distribution of the reduction burdens results from the certificate price and the respective reduction costs.
            ► Participants with high abatement costs co-finance the reduction performance of others.

                                                                                                                                                                 Regulation     20
Emissions trading in road transport: Is it possible?
One step toward an integrated approach would be to include road transport in emissions trading. Fuel consumption can be
precisely converted into emissions. Heavy trucks cannot be integrated into the existing limit value system - no problem with
emissions trading. The question remains as to who should hold the certificates:

                        Upstream – Service station operator                                                 Midstream – Car manufacturer

  For each liter sold, the corresponding certificates must be purchased.            When a new car is sold, a quantity of certificates must be purchased that
   1L gasoline = 2.3 kg CO2                                                        corresponds to the expected emissions of the vehicle during its lifetime.
   1L diesel = 2.6 kg CO2                                                          At 130 g CO2/km and 200,000 km: Certificates for 26 tons

   + Technically very easy to implement                                              +   Few financially strong demanders
   + Few financially strong demanders
   + Actual emissions are limited.                                                       Inaccurate - A theoretical quantity is purchased.
                                                                                     –
                                                                                         The manufacturer only determines the emission potential, not the real
                                                                                         emissions.
  – Only indirectly affects the actual polluter of the emissions. The link to the    –   He only has an indirect influence on the real emissions.
    motorist is the price signal, as with a mineral oil tax.

                                                                                                                                                        Regulation   21
Emissions trading: a sensible addition
The inclusion of road transport in emissions trading can offer advantages
ETS gas station
Talerstraße 111, 12345 Entenhausen
Gas station no. : 000000000xyz
                                                                     +
StNr. Station : 13/456/xyzxyz
StNr. Society: 01 234 56789
Document number 1234/005/00001 03.03.2021 9:22                           Simple: The necessary certificate quantity per tank filling is easy to
Card payment                                                              calculate. The necessary purchase can be handled with the fuel bill.
                                                                         Favorable for the driver: At a certificate price of € 30 targeted by
*Super gasoline                                     65.13 EUR A #*        the EU for 2020, the liter of gasoline would cost 7 cents more.
*Zp 03                 43.45 l               1.499 EUR/l #*
                                                                         Favorable for society: The avoidance costs of road traffic per ton
                                                                          are well over € 30. Emissions would be avoided where it is
*EU-ETS Emission allowances            3,04 EUR #* C*                     cheaper.
* 43.45l x 2.33 kg CO2/l = 101.24 kg CO2
                                                                         However, since transport would buy massive amounts of
* x 30.00 EUR/Authorization for 1,000 kg CO2
                                                                          certificates, other sectors would have to reduce significantly more.
Gesamtbetrag                     68,17 EUR                                A sense of proportion is needed to prevent the other sectors from
                                                                          being overburdened.
Typ    Netto      VAT       Brutto                                       Therefore: Emissions trading is a sensible addition to the current
A:     19.00%     54.73       10.40          65.13
                                                                          limits.
C:     0.00%       3.04        0.00          3.04

Thank you for visiting – have a good trip!

                                                                                                                                      Regulation   22
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