Large buyer Coordinated demand visibility update
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Large buyer Coordinated demand visibility update 18 April 2018 AMDS Meeting Geneva, Switzerland
Global Fund, PEPFAR and Government of South Africa are working
together to improve the consolidated demand outlook
What we will do What we will not do together
Coordinated approach and messages Long-term agreements with manufacturers
Synergistic strategies Selection of suppliers and demand allocation
Direct engagement with suppliers & supplier Execution of purchase orders
visits (sometimes)
We will not manage actual supplier
Align on key supplier performance metrics performance jointly
Sharing of synthesized market intelligence Managing overall supplier performance
and general supplier performance (Price, lead-time, delivery etc.)
Sharing information (without providing
confidential / sensitive information)
Providing improved demand visibility
1Increased dialogue between buyers & sellers over the last 18 months
Update @ April 2018
June 2014 Nov. 2016 March 2017 Aug 2017 Nov 2017 April 2018
Review and
Joint Global Large ARV 4 month update: web update Annual forum – update adjust cycle
Fund/ PEPFAR 2016Buyers and @ AMDS Cape Town @ AMDS as needed
Supplier Sellers Forum -
Conference Geneva
4th update all posted @ https://www.theglobalfund.org/en/sourcing-management/health-products/antiretrovirals/
Other actions being adopted by buyers and sellers
A number of procurement channels considering performance metrics, Framework contracts and
moving away from frequent spot tenders
Big funders/buyers committed to further strengthen partnership and improve on demand
management
2 Improve certainty on the time dimension; reduced volatility (smoothen demand)
Aligned messages to programs on the benefits of better planning; incentivize good planning
Demand & Expand scope and discuss forecasts/deviations to improve “trust in the forecast”
order
Streamline administrative process and reduce bottlenecks to reduce inventory & write-offs
management
Stronger coordination amongst funders and buyers
Improved and more timely demand planning at the country level
Stable buyer/seller partnership and volume certainty to enable sustainable investment and to optimize
Process & process development, API sourcing, and production
product Early and continuous engagement especially on new products (buyer, seller, & programs)
lifecycle Optimize and harmonize product and packaging specifications
Clear pathways for new products and new suppliers
Buyers to align on performance metrics
Incentivize continuous improvement
Performance
Articulate the cost of poor performance and encourage procurement channels to consider factors beyond
price especially performance
3Large ARV Buyers and Sellers Forum November 2017
Breakout Sessions notes: Value for Money
Topics discussed
Sourcing/ Supplier ▪ Reduce packaging and markings while linking with regulations
Management ▪ Bring services closer to customers to reduces freight cost and allow for smaller batch sizes
▪ Deliver large orders in smaller consignments
Demand Management ▪ Demand planning should be a 2-way communication
▪ Execute volume commitments
Enable continuous production through smoother more regular orders
Leverage technology to use bar-coding
Implement packaging efficiencies to reduce shipping costs
Process & product
Harmonize labelling requirements by aligning global, regional and national approaches
lifecycle Encourage swifter regulatory approvals to implement manufacturing and supply efficiencies
Alignment of regulatory processes to be able to while bringing more countries into regional harmonization efforts
Reduce pill size through process technologies and new molecules
Invest in local packaging
Supply chain
Freight optimization
optimization Ship bulk drugs to country and execute filling and labeling in country
For manufacturers it is all about lead time
Improve forecasting Big buyers do the forecasts
Single standard or put in barcodes that can be accessed in country (and link to reporting mechanism).
Optimize packaging & Inserts can be printed locally or made directly available to patient via their cell phone
labeling Remove inserts and remove cartons (and standardize)
Doing away with the cartons – low hanging fruitLarge ARV Buyers and Sellers Forum November 2017
Breakout Sessions notes: Value for Money (2)
Topics discussed
Sourcing closer to For a local manufacturing level – capex is an issue. The length of tender or finding innovative finance mechanisms or an
demand operational model that can spread the burden of this risk
In a large country – placing larger orders is a struggle – instead deliver it in monthly/quarterly batches; formulate the order to
Optimize storage
be delivered in batches
Leverage technology: bar coding and automatic ordering
Leverage cell phone technology for pharmacovigilance
Better leverage regional warehouses
Other Redefine shelf life requirements to not hamper longer shelf life products and emergency deliveries.
• suppliers recommend using months of until expiry instead of a percentage of RSL.
Multi-month packs
Establish market early warning system for suppliersLarge ARV Buyers and Sellers Forum November 2017
Breakout Sessions notes: Demand Management
Topics discussed
Information needed Need also more disaggregated demand information including company specific allocations from more buyers
Demand visibility should be shared for the next level up in the supply chain (e.g. FPP to provide visibility to API etc.)
Accuracy +/- 20% in forecasts is manageable
Substantive uncertainty of demand with order late or not visible/predictable creates significant peaks and troughs in demand
Manufacturing inefficiency where unutilized capacity and stop/start takes time to restart/respond - or may be allocated to
Impacts of poor other products
demand Respond to poor demand management by holding inventory – so works in terms of responsiveness for buyers – even though
not at an insignificant cost of capital and expiry risk (especially with high remaining shelf life requirements)
Challenges compounded up the supply chain and longer lead-times for sourcing of APIs and Key Starting Materials (KSM)Global Fund, PEPFAR, Republic of South Africa Demand Management April 2018 Update April 2018 Geneva, Switzerland
Consolidated demand forecast is derived in 5 simple steps
1 Gather order information from across top ~10 countries for top 10
products
2 Translate order dates to the dates when order is placed towards
the supplier, adjusting for shipment lead times if necessary
3 Consolidate the information from The Global Fund, PEPFAR and
The Government of South Africa
4 Triangulate the data with the general population information and
historical order patterns
5 Prepare a product-specific quarterly forecast breakdown and share it
with supplier and countries for their feedback
8Caveats and limitations to the current version of the visibility data
Conservative estimates based on currently confirmed orders
Prepared based on data currently available to The Global Fund, Government of
South Africa and PEPFAR
Preliminary estimates for the discussion – and not final purchase commitments
May not yet fully capture lead times between order placement at manufacturer
and in-country delivery
Fifth joint consolidated procurement forecast
9AS OF 12 APRIL 2018
Consolidated Demand Forecast Outlook
Overall ARV Demand Outlook
Q2 2018-Q3 2019, Number of packs, million Bold font – non-PPM countries Regular font – PPM countries
▪ Malawi ▪ Kenya ▪ TLE/TEE ▪ TL
PEPFAR ▪ Tanzania ▪ Mozambique ▪ LZN (adult) ▪ LZ (adult)
Republic of South Africa ▪ Zimbabwe ▪ Nigeria ▪ LZN (pediatric) ▪ EFV 600
The Global Fund ▪ Ethiopia ▪ Uganda ▪ Lpv/r (adult) ▪ NVP 200
▪ Zambia ▪ Cote d'Ivoire ▪ ATV/r ▪ TLD
▪ DTG 50mg
45 44 45
44
10 7 11 9 33
29
13 13 6
14 14
9
12 13 13 13 15
9
22 24 14
20 21
12
6
Q2 2018 Q3 2018 Q4 2018 Q1 2019 Q2 2019 Q3 2019
NOTE: Dates used are vendor INCO fulfillment dates. For the ease of analysis we excluded South Africa from The Global Fund funding. For South Africa, TEE is a predominant first-line instead of TLE.
DISCLAIMER: This is an initial version of the forecast, and may contain inaccuracies – please refer to caveats and data limitations on page 10. These slides contain a conservative estimate for demand management between the
three programs. As such, there may be future volumes not yet financially committed or confirmed. 10
SOURCE: PEPFAR, Government of South Africa, The Global FundAS OF 12 APRIL 2018
TLE 600, TLE 400, and TEE – Consolidated Demand Forecast Outlook
Overall ARV Demand Outlook
Q2 2018-Q3 2019, Number of packs, million Bold font – non-PPM countries Regular font – PPM countries
▪ Malawi ▪ Kenya
PEPFAR
▪ Tanzania ▪ Mozambique
Republic of South Africa ▪ Zimbabwe ▪ Nigeria
The Global Fund ▪ Ethiopia ▪ Uganda
▪ Zambia ▪ Cote d'Ivoire
28 25
24 22
5 1 1 0.2
10 11 13
11 11 11
12 13 13 13 9 0.3
0.5
13 13 7 3
12 11
4 10
Q2 2018 Q3 2018 Q4 2018 Q1 2019 Q2 2019 Q3 2019
NOTE: Dates used are vendor INCO fulfillment dates. For the ease of analysis we excluded South Africa from The Global Fund funding. For South Africa, TEE is a predominant first-line instead of TLE.
DISCLAIMER: This is an initial version of the forecast, and may contain inaccuracies – please refer to caveats and data limitations on page 10. These slides contain a conservative estimate for demand management between the
three programs. As such, there may be future volumes not yet financially committed or confirmed. 11
SOURCE: PEPFAR, Government of South Africa, The Global FundAS OF 12 APRIL 2018
TLD – Consolidated Demand Forecast Outlook
Overall ARV Demand Outlook
Q2 2018-Q3 2019, Number of packs, million Bold font – non-PPM countries Regular font – PPM countries
PEPFAR ▪ Malawi ▪ Kenya
Republic of South Africa ▪ Tanzania ▪ Mozambique
The Global Fund ▪ Zimbabwe ▪ Nigeria
▪ Ethiopia ▪ Uganda
▪ Zambia ▪ Cote d'Ivoire
13 14
10 10 5
8 8
6
12 13 4 13 8 13 8 9
3 - 9
- 4 - 5
3 -
2 2
- -
Q2 2018 Q3 2018 Q4 2018 Q1 2019 Q2 2019 Q3 2019
NOTE: Dates used are vendor INCO fulfillment dates. For the ease of analysis we excluded South Africa from The Global Fund funding. For South Africa, TEE is a predominant first-line instead of TLE.
DISCLAIMER: This is an initial version of the forecast, and may contain inaccuracies – please refer to caveats and data limitations on page 10. These slides contain a conservative estimate for demand management between the
three programs. As such, there may be future volumes not yet financially committed or confirmed. 12
SOURCE: PEPFAR, Government of South Africa, The Global FundAS OF 12 APRIL 2018
DTG 50mg – Consolidated Demand Forecast Outlook
Overall ARV Demand Outlook
Q2 2018-Q3 2019, Number of packs, thousands Bold font – non-PPM countries Regular font – PPM countries
PEPFAR ▪ Malawi ▪ Kenya
Republic of South Africa ▪ Tanzania ▪ Mozambique
▪ Zimbabwe ▪ Nigeria
The Global Fund
▪ Ethiopia ▪ Uganda
▪ Zambia ▪ Cote d'Ivoire
652
612
21
22
454 192
399 350
388
156 71
12372 13 - 13 219 13 - 9
112 398
243 - 275 281
- 107
82
Q2 2018 Q3 2018 Q4 2018 Q1 2019 Q2 2019 Q3 2019
NOTE: Dates used are vendor INCO fulfillment dates. For the ease of analysis we excluded South Africa from The Global Fund funding. For South Africa, TEE is a predominant first-line instead of TLE.
DISCLAIMER: This is an initial version of the forecast, and may contain inaccuracies – please refer to caveats and data limitations on page 10. These slides contain a conservative estimate for demand management between the
three programs. As such, there may be future volumes not yet financially committed or confirmed. 13
SOURCE: PEPFAR, Government of South Africa, The Global FundAS OF 12 APRIL 2018
LZN (Adult) – Consolidated Demand Forecast Outlook
Overall ARV Demand Outlook
Q2 2018-Q3 2019, Number of packs, thousands Bold font – non-PPM countries Regular font – PPM countries
▪ Malawi ▪ Kenya
PEPFAR ▪ Tanzania ▪ Mozambique
▪ Zimbabwe ▪ Nigeria
The Global Fund ▪ Ethiopia ▪ Uganda
▪ Zambia ▪ Cote d'Ivoire
2,043
1,919
175 -
1,467 1,517
-
217
1,868
12 13 13 13 1,919 9 696
1,517 - 550
1,250 -
696 550
Q2 2018 Q3 2018 Q4 2018 Q1 2019 Q2 2019 Q3 2019
NOTE: Dates used are vendor INCO fulfillment dates. For the ease of analysis we excluded South Africa from The Global Fund funding. For South Africa, TEE is a predominant first-line instead of TLE.
DISCLAIMER: This is an initial version of the forecast, and may contain inaccuracies – please refer to caveats and data limitations on page 10. These slides contain a conservative estimate for demand management between the
three programs. As such, there may be future volumes not yet financially committed or confirmed. 14
SOURCE: PEPFAR, Government of South Africa, The Global FundAS OF 12 APRIL 2018
LZN (Pediatric) – Consolidated Demand Forecast Outlook
Overall ARV Demand Outlook
Q2 2018-Q3 2019, Number of packs, thousands Bold font – non-PPM countries Regular font – PPM countries
▪ Malawi ▪ Kenya
▪ Tanzania ▪ Mozambique
PEPFAR
▪ Zimbabwe ▪ Nigeria
The Global Fund ▪ Ethiopia ▪ Uganda
▪ Zambia ▪ Cote d'Ivoire
2,267
348
1,638
1,027 388
759 716
12172 13 13 13 1,919 9 582
1,250 31 20
32
855 728 696 550
Q2 2018 Q3 2018 Q4 2018 Q1 2019 Q2 2019 Q3 2019
NOTE: Dates used are vendor INCO fulfillment dates. For the ease of analysis we excluded South Africa from The Global Fund funding. For South Africa, TEE is a predominant first-line instead of TLE.
DISCLAIMER: This is an initial version of the forecast, and may contain inaccuracies – please refer to caveats and data limitations on page 10. These slides contain a conservative estimate for demand management between the
three programs. As such, there may be future volumes not yet financially committed or confirmed. 15
SOURCE: PEPFAR, Government of South Africa, The Global FundAS OF 12 APRIL 2018
LPV/r (adult) – Consolidated Demand Forecast Outlook
Overall ARV Demand Outlook
Q2 2018-Q3 2019, Number of packs, thousands Bold font – non-PPM countries Regular font – PPM countries
▪ Malawi ▪ Kenya
PEPFAR ▪ Tanzania ▪ Mozambique
Republic of South Africa ▪ Zimbabwe ▪ Nigeria
▪ Ethiopia ▪ Uganda
The Global Fund ▪ Zambia ▪ Cote d'Ivoire
1,421
1,211 1,264
1,046 1,008 1,071
158 461
399 39 24 40
737
12 13 13 788 13 839 9 876 894
687
369
125 172 168 108 137
Q2 2018 Q3 2018 Q4 2018 Q1 2019 Q2 2019 Q3 2019
NOTE: Dates used are vendor INCO fulfillment dates. For the ease of analysis we excluded South Africa from The Global Fund funding. For South Africa, TEE is a predominant first-line instead of TLE.
DISCLAIMER: This is an initial version of the forecast, and may contain inaccuracies – please refer to caveats and data limitations on page 10. These slides contain a conservative estimate for demand management between the
three programs. As such, there may be future volumes not yet financially committed or confirmed. 16
SOURCE: PEPFAR, Government of South Africa, The Global FundAS OF 12 APRIL 2018
ATV/r – Consolidated Demand Forecast Outlook
Overall ARV Demand Outlook
Q2 2018-Q3 2019, Number of packs, thousands Bold font – non-PPM countries Regular font – PPM countries
▪ Malawi ▪ Kenya
PEPFAR ▪ Tanzania ▪ Mozambique
▪ Zimbabwe ▪ Nigeria
The Global Fund ▪ Ethiopia ▪ Uganda
▪ Zambia ▪ Cote d'Ivoire
774
199 622 614
201 493
289 338
12 13 13 13 42 266
575 9
421 104
325 295 44 227
60
Q2 2018 Q3 2018 Q4 2018 Q1 2019 Q2 2019 Q3 2019
NOTE: Dates used are vendor INCO fulfillment dates. For the ease of analysis we excluded South Africa from The Global Fund funding. For South Africa, TEE is a predominant first-line instead of TLE.
DISCLAIMER: This is an initial version of the forecast, and may contain inaccuracies – please refer to caveats and data limitations on page 10. These slides contain a conservative estimate for demand management between the
three programs. As such, there may be future volumes not yet financially committed or confirmed. 17
SOURCE: PEPFAR, Government of South Africa, The Global FundAS OF 12 APRIL 2018
TL and TE – Consolidated Demand Forecast Outlook
Overall ARV Demand Outlook
Q2 2018-Q3 2019, Number of packs, thousands Bold font – non-PPM countries Regular font – PPM countries
▪ Malawi ▪ Kenya
PEPFAR ▪ Tanzania ▪ Mozambique
Republic of South Africa ▪ Zimbabwe ▪ Nigeria
The Global Fund ▪ Ethiopia ▪ Uganda
▪ Zambia ▪ Cote d'Ivoire
2,018
1,848 255
1,428 1,587 469 518
298 486
513
505
12 13509 13 13 435 344
9
1,245 49
866 50
625 592 256 173
130 121
Q2 2018 Q3 2018 Q4 2018 Q1 2019 Q2 2019 Q3 2019
NOTE: Dates used are vendor INCO fulfillment dates. For the ease of analysis we excluded South Africa from The Global Fund funding. For South Africa, TEE is a predominant first-line instead of TLE.
DISCLAIMER: This is an initial version of the forecast, and may contain inaccuracies – please refer to caveats and data limitations on page 10. These slides contain a conservative estimate for demand management between the
three programs. As such, there may be future volumes not yet financially committed or confirmed. 18
SOURCE: PEPFAR, Government of South Africa, The Global FundAS OF 12 APRIL 2018
LZ (adult) – Consolidated Demand Forecast Outlook
Overall ARV Demand Outlook
Q2 2018-Q3 2019, Number of packs, thousands Bold font – non-PPM countries Regular font – PPM countries
PEPFAR ▪ Malawi ▪ Kenya
Republic of South Africa ▪ Tanzania ▪ Mozambique
The Global Fund ▪ Zimbabwe ▪ Nigeria
▪ Ethiopia ▪ Uganda
▪ Zambia ▪ Cote d'Ivoire
1,664
1,425 1,457
168
13
142 307 1,054
276 894
23 808 869
338 18
12 131,189 13 13 128
9
1,007 369 822
693 575
311 54
Q2 2018 Q3 2018 Q4 2018 Q1 2019 Q2 2019 Q3 2019
NOTE: Dates used are vendor INCO fulfillment dates. For the ease of analysis we excluded South Africa from The Global Fund funding. For South Africa, TEE is a predominant first-line instead of TLE.
DISCLAIMER: This is an initial version of the forecast, and may contain inaccuracies – please refer to caveats and data limitations on page 10. These slides contain a conservative estimate for demand management between the
three programs. As such, there may be future volumes not yet financially committed or confirmed. 19
SOURCE: PEPFAR, Government of South Africa, The Global FundAS OF 12 APRIL 2018
EFV 600 – Consolidated Demand Forecast Outlook
Overall ARV Demand Outlook
Q2 2018-Q3 2019, Number of packs, thousands Bold font – non-PPM countries Regular font – PPM countries
▪ Malawi ▪ Kenya
▪ Tanzania ▪ Mozambique
PEPFAR ▪ Zimbabwe ▪ Nigeria
Republic of South Africa ▪ Ethiopia ▪ Uganda
The Global Fund ▪ Zambia ▪ Cote d'Ivoire
1,878
1,787
103
1,338
1,254
832 844
98 155
12 13 13 13 9
806 819 652
931 411
955 576
350 364 371
76 40
Q2 2018 Q3 2018 Q4 2018 Q1 2019 Q2 2019 Q3 2019
NOTE: Dates used are vendor INCO fulfillment dates. For the ease of analysis we excluded South Africa from The Global Fund funding. For South Africa, TEE is a predominant first-line instead of TLE.
DISCLAIMER: This is an initial version of the forecast, and may contain inaccuracies – please refer to caveats and data limitations on page 10. These slides contain a conservative estimate for demand management between the
three programs. As such, there may be future volumes not yet financially committed or confirmed. 20
SOURCE: PEPFAR, Government of South Africa, The Global FundAS OF 12 APRIL 2018
NVP 200 – Consolidated Demand Forecast Outlook
Overall ARV Demand Outlook
Q2 2018-Q3 2019, Number of packs, thousands Bold font – non-PPM countries Regular font – PPM countries
PEPFAR ▪ Malawi ▪ Kenya
Republic of South Africa ▪ Tanzania ▪ Mozambique
The Global Fund ▪ Zimbabwe ▪ Nigeria
▪ Ethiopia ▪ Uganda
▪ Zambia ▪ Cote d'Ivoire
634
689
- 0.2
140
429 152
50 323
114
12 -
13127 13534 13 252
482 9 164 -
265 - 176
196 164
- 76
Q2 2018 Q3 2018 Q4 2018 Q1 2019 Q2 2019 Q3 2019
NOTE: Dates used are vendor INCO fulfillment dates. For the ease of analysis we excluded South Africa from The Global Fund funding. For South Africa, TEE is a predominant first-line instead of TLE.
DISCLAIMER: This is an initial version of the forecast, and may contain inaccuracies – please refer to caveats and data limitations on page 10. These slides contain a conservative estimate for demand management between the
three programs. As such, there may be future volumes not yet financially committed or confirmed. 21
SOURCE: PEPFAR, Government of South Africa, The Global FundYou can also read
