M25 The Report 2018 - Thames Valley UK

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M25 The Report 2018 - Thames Valley UK
The
M25
Report   2018
M25 The Report 2018 - Thames Valley UK
2 |   KNIGHT FRANK: M25 Report 2018                                                                                                                       KNIGHT FRANK: M25 Report 2018       |3

                                                  Foreword                                                Emma Goodford
                                                                                                          Head of National Offices
                                                                                                          emma.goodford@knightfrank.com

                                                  Structural change is upon us. It is challenging the dynamic of the M25
                                                  market. It requires a new approach to investment and development that
                                                  utilises new wave technologies to offer service, flexibility and vibrancy
                                                  through real estate.
                                                                                                          A new reality is emerging in the M25        smaller, flexible requirements, and often
                                                                                                          market. Since we started specifically       demanding a serviced approach. In 2016
                                                                                                          researching the market 30 years ago,        just 2% of take-up was from serviced
                                                                                                          we’ve seen cycles- the early 90’s crash,    operators- this rose to 12% in 2017.
                                                                                                          the dot.com bubble of 2001, quickly         Some M25 centres are now attracting
                                                                                                          followed by 9/11, the Global financial      providers outside the ‘traditional’
                                                                                                          crash of 2007. After each, we saw the       operators. This take-up is in response
                                                                                                          market dynamic recover to a similar         to the new demand dynamic.
DEFINITIONS                                                                                               pattern of supply and demand, some
                                                                                                                                                      The quality of the workplace is also
                                                                                                          markets quickly back to equilibrium,
                                                                                                                                                      affected by age- and with stock in the
TAKE-UP                                                                                                   others taking longer.
                                                                                                                                                      M25 centres now showing signs of
Take-up figures refer to space let,                                                                       Several themes are driving a change         obsolescence caused by age, there is a
pre-let, or acquired for occupation within                                                                to the historic cycles. The dominance       case for selective new development. We
schemes exceeding 10,000 sq ft
                                                                                                          of London as a source of labour, the        have seen the recent completion of the
                                                                                                          imminent arrival of the Elizabeth Line,     speculative development wave, which
SUPPLY                                                                                                    and most significantly technology, the      started in 2016. From mid 2018 supply
Office space that is immediately available and                                                            demand for offices space to be seen as      will peak and then reduce.
being marketed in properties over 10,000 sq ft                                                            a service, not just as bricks and mortar
                                                                                                                                                      So while we may believe the uncertainty
                                                                                                          and for workspaces to be vibrant and
                                                                                                                                                      surrounding Brexit has been the biggest
PRIME RENTS                                                                                               exciting- talent magnets. The old cycles
                                                                                                                                                      impact on the market; by stealth, the
Rents stated are prime headline rents                                                                     are over and a new structure has begun
                                                                                                                                                      impact of technology, the demands
for units over 10,000 sq ft, let to a top                                                                 to emerge.
quality tenant for a 10 year plus term                                                                                                                placed on the office workplace to be
                                                                                                          With its proximity to London, the M25       service centered and dynamic, and the
LEASE EVENTS
                                                                                                          and Thames Valley region is well placed     need for flexibility have been impacting,
                                                                                                          to respond to this new structural reality   accelerating the changing face of
Known lease breaks and expiries in
                                                                                                          and those landlords with assets which       occupier take up. Imperative to this is an
the four year period (2018-2021) in
schemes in excess of 10,000 sq ft                                                                         address the demands of the forward          understanding of demand, how investors
                                                                                                          thinking occupier will be the winners.      will respond, and what’s coming in
                                                                                                          Key centres with the best connections       the pipeline.
DEVELOPMENT PIPELINE (MARKET PAGES)
                                                                                                          stand out- Reading, Maidenhead,
A combined total of schemes that are                                                                                                                  Structural change is upon us. Ultimately,
                                                                                                          Watford and Woking. Many might think
either under construction, proposed and                                                                                                               it will play-out in different ways across
                                                                                                          this means only town centres will thrive-
expected to start within 24 months, and                                                                                                               different markets. In an area as diverse
those with potential to start within five years                                                           think again. As overarching ownerships
                                                                                                                                                      as the M25 it is vital to have a detailed
                                                                                                          in business parks allow for the curation
                                                                                                                                                      and granular understanding of current
                                                                                                          of services that are bespoke to a group
PRIME RENTS FORECAST                                                                                                                                  market conditions and future dynamics.
Our forecast for prime headline rental levels     The old cycles are over and a new                       of customers whose data informs the
                                                                                                          landlord what’s needed, and what’s not,
                                                                                                                                                      Consequently, this year’s report
at Q1 2021 in units over 10,000 sq ft let to                                                                                                          provides you with detailed analysis of
a top quality tenant for a 10 year term           structure has begun to emerge.                          those edge of town schemes can provide
                                                                                                          exciting alternative choice.
                                                                                                                                                      18 key markets across the M25. Each
                                                                                                                                                      submarket page provides the insights
CAGR                                                                                                      Over the last 24 months the market          and data necessary to guide your next
Compound Annual Growth Rate                                                                               dynamic has shifted to one focussed on      market move.
M25 The Report 2018 - Thames Valley UK
4 |   KNIGHT FRANK: M25 Report 2018                                                                                                                                                               KNIGHT FRANK: M25 Report 2018       |5

                                                                                                                                                              Milton Park,
                                                                                                                                                              Oxford

                                                                                                      The Brinell Building,

         Contents
                                                                                                                  Brighton

                                                                                                                                                              White City Place,

                                                         2-3
                                                                                                                                                              London

                                                  Foreword
                                  The old cycles are over and a
                            new structure has begun to emerge

                                                         6-7
                          Mapping the future market
                          Which aspects of change will have the
                     greatest impact on the demand and supply
                               dynamic over the next five years?

                                                         8-9
                                       Blackwater Valley
                                              Bracknell

                                                                                  10-11                                       Breakspear Park,
                                                                                                                              Hemel Hempstead                                                 20-21
                                                                                  Brighton                                                                                                    Investing in the future
                                                                                  Cambridge
                                                                                                                                                                                              The M25 market continues to attract a
                                                                                                                                                                                              diverse range of capital, but how can
                                                                                                                                                                                              investors future-proof performance?

                                                                                                                                                                                              22-23
                                                                                  12-13                                                                                                       Reading
                                                                                  Crawley / Gatwick                                                                                           Slough
                                                                                  Croydon
                                                                   The Foundry,
                                                                   Hammersmith
                                                                                                                                       The Porter Building,                                   24-25
                                                                                                                                                   Slough
                                                                                                                                                                                              Staines-upon-Thames

Catherdral Square,
                                                                                  14-15                                                                                                       Uxbridge
Guildford                                                                         Guildford
                                                                                  Heathrow
                                                                                                                                                                                              26-27
                                                                                                                                                                                              Watford
                                                                                                                                                                                              West London

                                                                                  16-17
                                                                                  Maidenhead                                                                                     The Bower,
                                                                                                                                                                    Stockley Park, Heathrow   28-29
                                                                                  Oxford                                                                                                      Wimbledon
                                                                                                                                                                                              Woking

                                                                                  18-19                                                                                                       30
                                 Chiswick Park,                                                                               Leavesden Park,
                                      Chiswick                                    The development landscape                   Watford                                                         Knight Frank contacts
M25 The Report 2018 - Thames Valley UK
6 |   KNIGHT FRANK: M25 Report 2018                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                               KNIGHT FRANK: M25 Report 2018       |7

Mapping
                                                                         will intensify as new wave technologies        In this sense, traditional landlords
                                                                         such as artificial intelligence, virtual       must recognise the threat and nullify it
                                                                         reality, augmented reality, robotics           through, at the very least, the adoption
                                                                         and automation take greater hold.              of its key features. Landlords must adapt

the future
                                                                         The occupational market will therefore         to a new supply side dynamic, with

                                                                                                                                                                     FUTURE
                                                                         continue to see demand arising out             innovation moving beyond the design
                                                                         of disruption.                                 of the built product and towards soft-
                                                                                                                        services, community and well-being.

market                                                                                                                                                               GAZING
                                                                         The application of new wave technologies
                                                                         also has a positive impact on supply.          3. PLACE ACTIVATION – ACTIVE
                                                                         The use of sensors, mobile telephony and           MANAGEMENT TO CREATE
                                                                         monitoring hardware and software –                 VIBRANCY AND BUZZ
                                                                         the raw materials of the so called ‘Internet
                                                                         of Things’- will allow the emergence of        This drive towards highly serviced
                                                                                                                        environments that create a physical and      Landlords must adapt, with innovation                                                            FIVE FUTURE FORCES OF CHANGE
                                                                         smart buildings within the M25 market.
                                                                         This technology, or more accurately            emotional connection is something that       moving beyond the design of the built                                                                  Reshaping skills                           Adapting to a new social                       Rethinking
The conventions of market supply and demand                              the data emerging from it, enables more        landlords must pay growing attention
                                                                                                                                                                     environment and towards soft-services,                                                                 & education                                & demographic reality                          space & place
                                                                         effective and pro-active workplace and         to. Occupiers want to attract and
are under attack. An effective understanding of,                                                                        retain talented staff. They will locate in   community and well-being.                                                                              Corporate                                  Technological
                                                                         asset management. It also creates
and response to, the emerging market dynamic                             much needed evidence to support the            buildings and locations that support                                                                                                                re-engineering                             disruption
                                                                                                                        them in this task. They are seeking what
is essential for the future competitiveness                              business case for a prospective occupiers
                                                                                                                        I have referred to previously as talent
                                                                         real estate move – cases that are now
and performance of the M25 and South East                                typically focused on metrics relating to       magnets; locations that have a buzz,
                                                                                                                        vibrancy and cohesion.                                                                                                             SUPPLY             DEMAND
office market.                                                           increased productivity, staff retention,
                                                                         space utilisation and total real estate                                                                                                                              WHAT TO DELIVER?                WHO WILL OCCUPY AND WHY?
                                                                         spend or savings. Used correctly, data
                                                                         will shape future built products or
                                                                         reconfigure existing stock to better meet
                                                                         occupier needs.                                                                                                                                                                            OVER THE NEXT

                                                                         2. SPACE AS A SERVICE – GOING
                                                                                                                        For landlords the market                                                                                                                       5 YEARS
                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                   Corporate
                                                                                                                                                                                                                                 Tenure / use         Family space
                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                           DE
                                                                             BEYOND THE PHYSICAL PRODUCT                dynamic demands change.                                                  AC
                                                                                                                                                                                                   E                            class flexibility     & attractions           Science in
                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                               the city
                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                  universities
                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                             M
                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                              AN
                            Dynamic (Adj.)                               The use of data derived from within office                                                                            PL                                                                                                                  Innovation &
                                                                         space to influence future product design
                                                                                                                        As the saying goes ‘old ways                                                                                                                                                            experience centres

                                                                                                                                                                                    IC

                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                       D
                                                                                                                                                                                                                 Smart construction                                                             Immersive

                                                                                                                                                                                   M
                            i.(of a process or system)
                                                                                                                        won’t open new doors’.

                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                          DY
                                                                                                                                                                                                                   smart living                 Networking &
                                                                         has been central to WeWork’s meteoric                                                                                                                                                              Healthcare

                                                                                                                                                                                 NA
                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                 learning
                                                                                                                                                                                                                                               learning events

                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                            NA
                                characterised by constant change,                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                             Data firms
                                                                         rise across the globe. It is just one way

                                                                                                                                                                               DY
                                                                                                                                                                                                    City of

                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                              MI
                                activity, or progress                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                         Artificial
                                                                         in which the emerging flexi, co-working                                                                               neighbourhoods                     Cohesion                          OVER THE NEXT

                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                C
                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                            intelligence                      Maker
                            ii.(of a person)                           phenomenon – which is not of course                                                                                                                                                           2 YEARS                                                                cities
                                positive in attitude and full of                                                                                                                                                 Community                                                            Data                                 Intrapreneurship
                                                                         limited to WeWork - should be influencing                                                                    Civic                      partnerships                                                        security
                                energy and new ideas                                                                                                                                                                                     An environment
                                                                         more traditional supply side players. Key                                                                 laboratories                                            for all ages                                             Fintech
Dr Lee Elliott
                                                                         amongst these influences is the necessary      Landlords must invest more time (and yes                                                                                                                                                               Advanced           Virtual reality
Partner, Global Head of     The new dynamic emerging within              transition from viewing real estate simply     money) in activating their schemes and
                                                                                                                                                                                                  20 minute                  Transport                                       Centres of knowledge                               robotics
                            the M25 office is challenging both our                                                                                                                             neighbourhoods                                                                 vs centres of energy
Occupier Research                                                        as a physical product and towards the          buildings. This encompasses the creation                                                                             New models of                                                  Digital
                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                   production
                            thinking about the source and needs          concept of ‘space as a service’.               of a brand identity which supports the                  Virtual
                                                                                                                                                                                                                                           education provision                                            disruption
                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                       New wave Rainmaker
                            of future occupiers and about how we,                                                                                                                                                    Community
                                                                                                                        marketing of a scheme to occupiers and            city / estate app          Built in         as family                                                                                                       technology launch pads
                            in the property industry, can create in      Co-working and flexi providers – to date                                                                                  flexibility                                                                                       Sector
                                                                                                                        employees. The best practice example                                                                                                                                                          Business
                            the second sense of the definition, more     relatively limited within the M25 market –                                                                                                                   Place                                                       convergence
                                                                                                                        of this remains, almost twenty years                                                                                                                                                           process
                            dynamic places and workplaces. Knight        place tremendous emphasis on providing                                                                                                                     activation                                                                       outsourcing
                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                    Team of teams
                                                                                                                        since its inception, Chiswick Park. The                  Crowd sourced
                            Frank have sought to define, through our     real estate and associated services that                                                                public services                    Talent
                                                                                                                        ‘Enjoy Work’ brand has proven to be                                                        magnets                                          SOUTH EAST
                            Future Gazing mind-map (opposite), this      support the creation of a highly connected,                                                                                                                                                  OFFICE
                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                         Rise of
                                                                                                                        a marketing masterstroke in raising                                                                                                                                           freelancing                                       Headcount
                            emerging market dynamic.                     collaborative community housed within                                                                                                           Active communal
                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                     MARKET
                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                       Elephants
                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                     light / tech heavy
                                                                                                                        profile and challenging preconceptions                                                                 space                                                                                    & fleas
                                                                         a modern, curated and highly serviced                                                            Infrastructure
                            The map outlines aspects of change                                                          of the location. Yet as Chiswick Park
                                                                         environment. The strength of connection                                                                                                                                                                                         Gig
                            that could alter the demand and supply                                                      also ably shows, place activation is                                       Amenity
                                                                         and satisfaction that the ‘customer’ (note                                                                                 rich
                                                                                                                                                                                                                   Co-working                                                                          economy        Engagement             Info-
                            dynamic over the next five years.                                                           about much more than a catchy slogan.                                                                      A new centre for                                                                                        toxicated          Automation
                                                                         the language) has with the space will be                                                             Digital and VR                                        arts & events
                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                      with space /
                            We must be mindful of these issues when                                                     It is about creating events, educational            broadcasting hub                                                                                                                             place
                                                                         key as co-working providers increasingly
                            making occupational or investment                                                           programmes, temporary installations,                                                         Activity based                                                             Productivity
                                                                         seek to compete for occupiers of scale                                                                             Artisan and                                      3rd spaces
                            decisions. It is how such decisions can be                                                  site specific apps and even concierge                                                          working                                                                                                                Dis-aggregation:
                                                                         through their emerging enterprise model.                                                                        community markets                                                                         From talent
                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                             Grey hair,
                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                              erosion of space
                            future-proofed and de-risked. Amongst                                                       staff to consistently and continually                                                                                             Leisure heavy                                     grey matter
                                                                                                                                                                                                                                   Space as                                        shortage to                                                   advantage
                            the many themes, there are three which                                                      bring substance to the brand. To date,                                                                                                places            talent alignment
                                                                                                                                                                                                                                   a service
                            present the strongest challenge to                                                          many traditional landlords have baulked                    Virtual galleries                                                                                                                    Multi-generational
                            landlords within the M25 market and                                                         at such active asset management, but                                                                                     Corporate                                                                workforces
                                                                                                                                                                                                     Retail back to the future:                 incubators Wellness           From hot desk
                            hence are worthy of further elaboration.                                                    in a world where staff retention is the                                        digital high streets                                                    to thin desk

                                                                                                                                                                          WO
                                                                                                                        key to retaining occupiers and avoiding                                                                Open / secure
                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                Platform              Information
                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                               employment                elites

                                                                                                                                                                             RK
                            1. NEW WAVE TECHNOLOGY –                                                                   expensive voids it is becoming an                                                                     corporate space

                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                 IC
                                                                         Landlords must adapt to a                                                                                                                                                                                          Work / life

                                                                                                                                                                                PL
                                                                                                                        essential part of the investment process.

                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                M
                                DISRUPTOR OR ENABLER?                                                                                                                                                     Bringing out of town
                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                            balance

                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                              NA
                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                             From jobs

                                                                                                                                                                                  AC
                                                                                                                                                                                                              retail in town                                           Walkability
                            The South East office market is no           new supply side dynamic, with                  A new dynamic is emerging in the M25
                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                        Mottainai                                                             to tasks

                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                         DY
                                                                                                                                                                                      E
                                                                                                                                                                                              YN                                                         space
                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                         AL

                                                                                                                                                                                        D
                            stranger to occupational demand from                                                        market. Several of the key centres are
                            the technology sector. In fact, the tech
                                                                         innovation moving beyond                       well placed to address the opportunities
                                                                                                                                                                                                   AM                             Office as an off-                                                       The sandwich                              CI
                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                               SO
                                                                                                                                                                                                        IC                        grid sanctuary                                                           generation
                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                 Living longer,
                            sector has accounted for, on average,        the design of the built product                this dynamic represents. Traditional                                                                                             Concept /
                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                      experience stores
                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                 working longer
                            23% of annual office take-up over the                                                       market orthodoxies are being challenged
                            last five years and has absorbed some        and towards the provision of                   by occupier activity and demands.
                            3.8 million sq ft during that period.
                            Similarly, occupiers drawn from other
                                                                         soft-services, community and                   New market entrants will be ushered
                                                                                                                        in. More importantly it will create new
                            sectors have been transformed by             well-being.                                    opportunities for those investors and
                            the application of new technology to                                                        developers bold enough to recognise that,
                            business processes, often fuelling new                                                      as the saying goes, ‘old ways won’t open
                            property requirements. This pressure                                                        new doors’.
M25 The Report 2018 - Thames Valley UK
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                                                        Blackwater Valley                                                                                                                                                                                 Bracknell
                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                           Home to household names in the tech and pharmaceutical sectors,
                                                         A market driven by business parks and home to an increasingly                                                                                                                                     the market has undergone regeneration but presents little upcoming
                                                         diverse pool of occupiers of international repute.                                                                                                                                                office development.

BUSINESS PARK DOMINANCE                                        OCCUPIER DIVERSITY                                       REDUCED SUPPLY                                                                                                   A TOWN IN TRANSFORMATION                                     TECH TENANTS                                              NEW SUPPLY SOON?
Blackwater Valley incorporates Aldershot,                      Although demand has proved relatively                    On the supply side, office stock in the area has                                                                 Equidistant between the M3 and M4, 2017 was                  Bracknell is located at the heart of the UK’s answer      Overall market availability dipped to just over
Farnborough, Fleet, Frimley and Camberley.                     diverse over time, the area has a strong historic        seen a reduction of close to 10% in recent years,                                                                a pivotal year for Bracknell. A significant part             to ‘Silicon Valley’ meaning the technology sector         400,000 sq ft at the end of 2017. Currently, there is
Supported by ease of access to the M3 and just a               connection to the aerospace industry and                 as conversion to residential use has gained favour                                                               of the town centre’s extensive regeneration was              has provided a basis for market growth. Over the          no active development underway. Within the next
short hop to central London, an out-of-town office             technology occupiers. The TMT sector, for                through Permitted Development and market                 726,000 SQ FT                 626,500 SQ FT             completed in September, bringing a much needed               past decade, demand derived from technology               five years, 252,600 sq ft across three substantial
market has developed within this region. The                   example, accounts for 18% of take-up over the past       conditions rendered new speculative starts a                                                                     high quality amenity offer to the town.                      firms has accounted for 38% of office take-up,            schemes are in the pipeline.
Blackwater Valley accounts for 18% of total office             15 years, with firms such as IBM, Siemens, and           bold call.                                              Office space lost to           Office space lost to                                                                   with around 70% of that satisfied within one of
                                                                                                                                                                               Permitted Development                                     Centre stage of the work is the Lexicon, an                                                                            With annual headline rents in the mid-twenties,
stock in the M3. Partly due to the limited appeal              CSC all having established headquarters within                                                                                                 Permitted Development                                                                   Bracknell’s business parks. Resident firms now
                                                                                                                        This has meant that availability has shrunk                                                                      investment of £240 million which created 580,000                                                                       it is impossible to justify speculative development.
of the town centres in this area, market activity is           the Blackwater Valley.                                                                                                                                                                                                                 include Vodafone (formerly Cable and Wireless),
                                                                                                                        markedly, dipping to 396,700 sq ft at the end of                                                                 sq ft of space. Its completion has established a retail                                                                Our forecast rent of £29.50 per sq ft by 2021
dominated by 10 business parks.                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                       Panasonic, Dell, Hitachi and Fujitsu.
                                                               Farnborough is also the home to the national             2017. Nonetheless, the Blackwater Valley still                                                                   offer of 70 new shops, high quality restaurants and                                                                    barely supports viability for the quality of space
Notably, Farnborough accounts for half of the                  headquarters of the UK’s largest aerospace               accounted for 17% of available stock within the                                                                  a 12 screen cinema.                                          The skew towards the business park product in             occupiers demand.
business park presence and whilst historically,                company BAE Systems, Boeing’s state-of-the-art           M3 region at year-end. Future development                                                                                                                                     Bracknell has attracted the pharmaceutical and
                                                                                                                                                                                                                                         The transformation of the town has been inclusive
occupier demand has been spread across the                     network-enabled centre for collaboration and             in the area is limited and is dominated by                                                                                                                                    research sectors. Leading industry firms such as
                                                                                                                                                                                                                                         of the conversion of office space to residential
region, Farnborough has most recently been the                 experimentation and QinetiQ’s Cody Technology            refurbishments.                                                                                                                                                               Boehringer Ingelheim, Syngenta and Johnson &
                                                                                                                                                                                                                                         use. Close to 630,000 sq ft of office space has been
centre of activity. The town accounts for two thirds           Park. Global brands such as BMW, Time Inc, and                                                                                                                                                                                         Johnson all have a presence.
of occupier take-up within the Blackwater Valley               Fluor have also secured a significant presence in
                                                                                                                        The first phase of Canmoor’s Ascent scheme at                   8.6*                                             subject to residential planning, a number that has
over the past five years.                                      the area in recent years. In fact, BMW’s acquisition
                                                                                                                        Farnborough Aerospace Centre has completed,                 House price to                     6.2               now led Bracknell Forest Council to invoke Article
                                                                                                                        with the balance to follow over the next 12 months.                                                              4, constraining further conversion.
                                                               of the Nokia Campus in 2013 represents the second                                                                     income ratio                 House price to
                                                                                                                        Once complete, this will have delivered c.135,000
                                                               largest occupier acquisition in the South East since                                                                                                income ratio
                                                                                                                        sq ft of Grade A space to the market.
                                                               our records began.

                         TAKE-UP                                           SUPPLY                                            PRIME RENT                                                                                                  TAKE-UP                                                SUPPLY                                              PRIME RENT

                         118,600                                           396,700                                           £27.00                                                                                                      211,900                                                426,200                                             £24.00
                                                                                                                                                                               366* OF 4,300+
                                                     sq ft                                                    sq ft                                     per sq ft                GB retail destination
                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                        sq ft                                                     sq ft                                           per sq ft
                                                                                                                                                                                                               429 OF 4,300+

                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                 REVIEW OF 2017
                                                                                                                                                                                   ranking (CACI)
 REVIEW OF 2017

                                    34% below the                          2.2 years                                         7% CAGR                                                                           GB retail destination                 40% above the                              2.8 years                                           4% CAGR
                                    10 year average                        market supply                                     (5 years)                                                                           ranking (CACI)                      10 year average                            market supply                                       (5 years)

                          A B C D E F G H I     J K L M N O P Q R           A B C D E F G H I       J K L M N O P Q R         A B C D E F G H I       J K L M N O P Q R                                                                   A B C D E F G H I       J K L M N O P Q R                A B C D E F G H I    J K L M N O P Q R            A B C D E F G H I       J K L M N O P Q R
                                                                                                                                                                                  41 MINUTES

                         1,459,600                                         135,000                                           £29.00                                                                                                      780,300                                                252,600                                             £29.50
                                                                                                                                                                                  To central London
                                                             sq ft                                           sq ft                                                                                                                                                         sq ft                                                 sq ft
                                                                                                                                                                                                                 60 MINUTES

                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                 PROJECTIONS
                                                                                                                                                                                                                 To central London
 PROJECTIONS

                         Space subject to a                                Development pipeline                                       Prime rent per                                                                                     Space subject to a                                     Development pipeline                                         Prime rent per
                         lease event 2018-2021                             (5 years)                                                  sq ft by 2021                                                                                      lease event 2018-2021                                  (5 years)                                                    sq ft by 2021

                                                                                                                                                                                       £110M
                                                                                                                                                                                 Redevelopment of
                          A B C D E F G H I     J K L M N O P Q R           A B C D E F G H I       J K L M N O P Q R         A B C D E F G H I       J K L M N O P Q R                                                                   A B C D E F G H I       J K L M N O P Q R                A B C D E F G H I    J K L M N O P Q R            A B C D E F G H I       J K L M N O P Q R
                                                                                                                                                                               ‘The Square’ shopping
                                                                                                                                                                                centre in Camberley                  £240M
                         A_ Blackwater Valley    D_ Cambridge              G_ Guildford               J_ Oxford              M_ Staines-upon-         P_ West London                                                                    A_ Blackwater Valley       D_ Cambridge                G_ Guildford              J_ Oxford                 M_ Staines-upon-          P_ West London
                                                                                                                                 Thames                                                                         The Lexicon opened                                                                                                                      Thames
                         B_ Bracknell            E_ Crawley / Gatwick      H_ Haeathrow               K_ Reading                                       Q_ Wimbledon                                                                      B_ Bracknell               E_ Crawley / Gatwick        H_ Heathrow               K_ Reading                                           Q_ Wimbledon
                                                                                                                             N_ Uxbridge
                                                                                                                                                                                                                      in 2017                                                                                                                       N_ Uxbridge
                         C_ Brighton             F_ Croydon                I_ Maidenhead              L_ Slough                                        R_ Woking                                                                         C_ Brighton                F_ Croydon                  I_ Maidenhead             L_ Slough                                            R_ Woking
                                                                                                                             O_ Watford                                                                                                                                                                                                             O_ Watford

KNIGHT FRANK VIEW                                                                                                                                                                                                                        KNIGHT FRANK VIEW
The statistics speak for themselves – there              We live in a digital age where cyber security is                                                                                235                                             Key lease events combined with the arrival
is a critical mass of blue chip companies                becoming ever more important and could lead                                                                            Aerospace companies                                      of the Lexicon supported a strong year for
closely linked to the aerospace, defence and             to increased occupier demand as new contracts                                                                              in Hampshire                     £768M               market activity in 2017. An unusual spike.
technology industries clustered around                   are awarded – the Blackwater Valley is well                                                                                                                                     2018 is anticipated to revert to the historical
                                                                                                                                                                                                             Regeneration of Bracknell
Farnborough. Will it continue to lead the way            placed to take advantage of this potential trend.                                                                                                                               take-up trends.
for Blackwater Valley in terms of investor and
                                                                                                                                                                                                                 Forest Borough
                                                         In addition, engineering firm Fluor,                                                                                                                                            Attracted by low rental values, occupiers
occupier activity?
                                                         who seem to be constantly expanding at                                                                                                                                          accept the lack of the Elizabeth Line and
More than likely, given the continued letting            Farnborough Business Park or the Aerospace                                                                                                                                      fast train connections to London – both key
success of Farnborough Business Park over                Centre, are also driving take-up levels. On                                                                           French emperor Napoleon                                   to the success of Reading and Slough. The
recent years (recently acquired by Frasers               the flipside, some more marginal locations
                                                                                                               Jack Riley                                                     III is entombed in the crypt                               new town centre is creating important place
                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                Andy Nixon
in one of the largest South East investment              seem to be struggling - Ancells Business              jack.riley@knightfrank.com                                       at Saint Michael’s Abbey,                                activation and improving demographics,                 andy.nixon@knightfrank.com
transactions in 2017) and because of the critical        Park, for one - and there is much talk about                                                                                  Farnborough            Bracknell Forest Council   both key to the employer decision-making
lack of Grade A office supply other than the             Novartis moving part of its operations to                                                                                *REPRESENTATIVE OF         was named Council of the    process. Bracknell, however, will remain the
pipeline at Farnborough Aerospace Centre.                West London, which would be a blow.                                                                                        FARNBOROUGH                     Year 2018            centre for ‘good value’ offices.
M25 The Report 2018 - Thames Valley UK
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                                                         Brighton                                                                                                                                                                                             Cambridge
                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                               The development of life sciences and technology clusters of global
                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                               standing underpins strong real estate market performance with new
                                                         A highly qualified and creative population is driving high levels of                                                                                                                                  rental benchmarks being set, but the affordability of housing could
                                                         business start-ups which complement established big buisnesses.                                                                                                                                       serve as a brake on growth.

GROWING IN REPUTATION                                          5G TESTBED                                                   SUB 4% VACANCY                                                                                                    GROWTH VS. COHESION                                       GROWTH IN LIFE SCIENCES                                   FURTHER RENTAL GROWTH
Strategically located just an hour from central                The creative sector in Brighton is at the forefront          Brighton has 4.6 million sq ft of office                                                                          Cambridge has developed based upon its long-              Emerging government policy frameworks look set            From a real estate standpoint, the ongoing
London and less than half an hour from London                  of its growth, with a plethora of digital advertising        accommodation, predominantly located in the                                                                       standing academic infrastructure, creating an             to bring additional focus to Cambridge. The UK            imbalance between Grade A supply and occupier
Gatwick Airport, Brighton ‘the business centre’ is             and marketing agencies, design and gaming                    city centre, close to transport hubs and links to                                                                 appealing commercial and residential centre               Industrial Strategy, launched by the government           demand has served to fuel greater competition
growing in reputation. Brighton is internationally             studios. The digital tech spectrum is widening,              London. Over the past five years, development
                                                                                                                                                                                       529,100 SQ FT               146,000 SQ FT              of national and global standing. The city’s               at the end of 2017, is underpinned by four key            between occupiers for the very best space. This has,
renowned, not just for its tourist industry and                supported by talent from two universities.                   activity has been very limited, which, combined                                                                   highly qualified, highly skilled workforce has            business sectors, one of which is life sciences.          in turn, fuelled rental growth in the market with
trendy culture, but also big business, with                                                                                 with an upturn in demand, has meant vacancy               Office space lost to        Office space lost to        underpinned the rapid growth of both life sciences        This has a strong affinity with Cambridge – as            prime rents standing at £38.00 per sq ft in the city
                                                               Following the approval of £1.2 million investment                                                                                                 Permitted Development
American Express, BUPA and Legal & General all                                                                              has fallen to below 4%.                                  Permitted Development                                    and technology clusters, which, in turn, have             exemplified by AstraZeneca’s relocation of its R&D        centre and set to rise to £42.50+ by mid 2018.
                                                               from the Government’s Local Growth Fund,
having established operational centres in the city.                                                                                                                                                                                           ensured that new office and laboratory space has          facilities from Cheshire to the city.
                                                               Wired Sussex and the University of Brighton are              CityView in the New England Quarter, completed                                                                                                                                                                                        In the absence of a significant development
Brighton also has a strong student foundation, with                                                                                                                                                                                           been regularly absorbed.
                                                               conducting a three year programme of 5G-related              in 2016, delivered 32,000 sq ft and represented                                                                                                                             The policy focus will inevitably serve to pave the        pipeline over the medium term, we anticipate
two top universities in Brighton and Sussex.
                                                               engagement. This is the UK’s first non-university            the first major speculative completion since                                                                      The key challenge for Cambridge is to ensure that         way for further investment into Cambridge from            further rental growth over the next 12-18 months,
Notably, Brighton also has one of the highest                  5G testbed. Impressively, according to the 2017              2009. Developer McAleer & Rushe have now                                                                          its growth does not negatively impact upon its            venture capital funds and occupiers alike.                particularly in the core market.
business start-up rates in the UK, ranked eighth in            Tech Nation report, Brighton’s digital sector has            commenced work on the 62,000 sq ft Brinell                                                                        cohesion. There are growing concerns about both
the country by the Centre for Cities.                          grown by 29% since 2011.                                     Building. Completion is expected in Q2 2019.                                                                      the cost and range of housing available within the
                                                                                                                                                                                                                                              city, with house prices now equivalent to those in
                                                                                                                            The U+I regeneration of Circus Street is the only                                              7.9                London. This could be a constraint on growth if
                                                                                                                            other office scheme underway. This will deliver                    7.8                    House price to          not addressed.
                                                                                                                            33,000 sq ft of office space alongside residential and        House price to               income ratio
                                                                                                                            student housing. Again, completion is expected                 income ratio
                                                                                                                            in 2019.

                        TAKE-UP                                            SUPPLY                                                 PRIME RENT                                                                                                  TAKE-UP                                              SUPPLY                                             PRIME RENT

                        97,000                                             160,000                                               £31.00                                                                                                       460,000                                              660,000                                            £38.00
                                                 sq ft                                                        sq ft                                          per sq ft                                             27 OF 4,300+                                                  sq ft                                               sq ft                                        per sq ft
                                                                                                                                                                                       22 OF 4,300+               GB retail destination

                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                 REVIEW OF 2017
 REVIEW OF 2017

                                                                                                                                                                                       GB retail destination        ranking (CACI)
                                   17% below the                           1.4 years                                              9% CAGR                                                ranking (CACI)                                                   17% below the                            1.2 years                                          5% CAGR
                                   10 year average                         market supply                                          (5 years)                                                                                                               10 year average                          market supply                                      (5 years)

                        A B C D E F G H I      J K L M N O P Q R            A B C D E F G H I           J K L M N O P Q R          A B C D E F G H I       J K L M N O P Q R                                                                  A B C D E F G H I       J K L M N O P Q R            A B C D E F G H I       J K L M N O P Q R           A B C D E F G H I      J K L M N O P Q R

                                                                                                                                                                                                                    53 MINUTES

                        679,400                                            352,100                                               £33.50                                                                                                       1,298,000                                            462,500                                            £44.00
                                                      sq ft                                                  sq ft                                                                      58 MINUTES                  To central London                                                sq ft                                           sq ft
                                                                                                                                                                                        To central London
 PROJECTIONS

                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                 PROJECTIONS
                        Space subject to a                                 Development pipeline                                           Prime rent per                                                                                      Space subject to a                                   Development pipeline                                       Prime rent per
                        lease event 2018-2021                              (5 years)                                                      sq ft by 2021                                                                                       lease event 2018-2021                                (5 years)                                                  sq ft by 2021

                                                                                                                                                                                                                          2018
                        A B C D E F G H I      J K L M N O P Q R            A B C D E F G H I           J K L M N O P Q R          A B C D E F G H I       J K L M N O P Q R                  39%                  A direct rail service      A B C D E F G H I       J K L M N O P Q R             A B C D E F G H I      J K L M N O P Q R           A B C D E F G H I      J K L M N O P Q R

                                                                                                                                                                                       Population educated        between Gatwick and
                        A_ Blackwater Valley    D_ Cambridge               G_ Guildford                  J_ Oxford               M_ Staines-upon-          P_ West London                                                                    A_ Blackwater Valley      D_ Cambridge               G_ Guildford              J_ Oxford                M_ Staines-upon-         P_ West London
                                                                                                                                                                                         to degree level         Cambridge has opened
                        B_ Bracknell            E_ Crawley / Gatwick       H_ Heathrow                   K_ Reading                  Thames                 Q_ Wimbledon                                                                      B_ Bracknell              E_ Crawley / Gatwick       H_ Heathrow               K_ Reading                   Thames                Q_ Wimbledon
                        C_ Brighton             F_ Croydon                 I_ Maidenhead                 L_ Slough               N_ Uxbridge                R_ Woking                                                                         C_ Brighton               F_ Croydon                 I_ Maidenhead             L_ Slough                N_ Uxbridge               R_ Woking
                                                                                                                                 O_ Watford                                                                                                                                                                                                           O_ Watford

KNIGHT FRANK VIEW                                                                                                                                                                                                                             KNIGHT FRANK VIEW
The development pipeline of offices in                   The Brinell Building is a good example                                                                                                                                               One of the global hubs of innovation in the          connectivity into London from the science
Brighton is naturally constrained by the sea             as it will set record rents for the city and                                                                                       12,600                       3,000                life sciences and technology sectors and             and business parks to the north of the city.
to the south and the South Downs to the                  help cater to the pent up demand in the                                                                                                                                              recognised as part of the Golden Triangle
                                                                                                                                                                                     Digital sector jobs based      Digital and science                                                            The global draw of Cambridge, its position
north. This concentrates an already tight                occupational market.                                                                                                                                                                 brand (alongside Oxford and London),
                                                                                                                                                                                             in Brighton           businesses based in                                                             as one of the UK’s fastest growing cities,
office supply dynamic in a town where too                                                                                                                                                                                                     Cambridge has suffered a similar fate to
                                                                                                                                                                                                                        Cambridge                                                                  coupled with the current supply and demand
few sites can be identified.                                                                                                                                                                                                                  Oxford due to its constraining historic city
                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                   imbalance, will push headline rents to a
                                                                                                                                                                                                                                              centre. This trend is starting to reverse
A cool culture, dynamic workforce, big                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                             record level of £42.50+ per sq ft in 2018 –
                                                                                                                                                                                                                                              however with the redevelopment of the area
business and entrepreneurial start-ups,                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                            making Cambridge the first South Eastern
                                                                                                                                                                                                                                              around the main railway station drawing
creates perfect conditions for rental growth.                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                      centre outside of central London to reach
                                                                                                                Jack Riley                                                                                                                    large occupiers such as Microsoft and                                                                   Will Buttery
Prime headline rents currently sit at around                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                       this benchmark. Proposals announced for
                                                                                                                                                                                                                                              Amazon into the city centre.
£31.00 per sq ft, although as new quality stock                                                                 jack.riley@knightfrank.com                                                                                                                                                         the CaMkOx corridor linking by road the 70         william.buttery@knightfrank.com
comes to the market we believe this will                                                                                                                                                Brighton is home to      The first official game of   Ongoing investment in infrastructure,                miles in an arc from Oxford would further
support further rental growth.                                                                                                                                                       Britain’s oldest cinema –    football was played on      notably the opening of Cambridge North               reinforce the strength of the city.
                                                                                                                                                                                         The Duke of York         Parker’s Piece in 1848      Station in May 2017, has resulted in greater
M25 The Report 2018 - Thames Valley UK
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                                                        Crawley / Gatwick                                                                                                                                                                                  Croydon
                                                        Transport benefits coupled with relative cost advantage over the rest                                                                                                                               A remarkable commercial and cultural rebirth, together with the cull
                                                        of the South East has fuelled large-scale occupier deals, whilst record                                                                                                                             of older office stock, is changing the market dynamic and attracting
                                                        headline rents and limited future supply will support investor interest.                                                                                                                            a growing roster of occupiers migrating out from central London.

NEW HEADLINE RENTS                                           LIMITED FUTURE SUPPLY                                     LARGE SCALE LEASING                                                                                                 COMMERCIAL REBIRTH                                      MARKET RIGHT-SIZING                                       COST ADVANTAGE
There is something of a contradiction at work                Although supply of existing office product is             There is a notable demand dynamic at work                                                                           The forthcoming Westfield / Croydon shopping            Almost 3 million sq ft of poorer, tertiary office         Cost consciousness is firmly on the corporate
within the Crawley / Gatwick market. Analysis                considerable, it is worth noting that new office          within the Crawley / Gatwick market that is in                                                                      centre – with a projected delivery date of 2022-        space has been removed from the Croydon                   agenda and much occupier interest in the Croydon
of available stock shows a current glut of office            development is negligible. As well as reflecting          stark contrast to much of the wider South East                                                                      23 – and to a lesser extent, the opening of the         market since Permitted Development rights                 market is financially motivated. The differential in
supply, especially on Manor Royal. Simple                    developer / investor concern over current supply          office market. Although not receiving the press-         591,000 SQ FT                     2.9M SQ FT               innovative and cool BoxPark – have captured most        were introduced in 2013 - resulting in an Article 4       total occupational costs between Croydon (circa
economics would maintain that this excess supply             levels, an insatiable demand for industrial /             headlines typically afforded to the Thames Valley,                                                                  of the business headlines. Yet Croydon’s wider          directive in October 2015. Accordingly, Croydon’s         £50.00 per sq ft) and central London (well in excess
will inevitably dampen rental growth prospects               distribution property has led to the hoovering up         the market has seen a greater volume of larger-         Office space lost to            Office space lost to        commercial rebirth has been remarkable, if less         core office market has been right-sized and               of £100.00 per sq ft) is now so significant that there
for a time.                                                  of most spare land within the Crawley / Gatwick           scale office / R&D deals than anywhere else in the     Permitted Development           Permitted Development        remarked upon, the exception being the 2016             tightened considerably. This has served to drive          is a genuine story of out-migration to the Croydon
                                                             market at extraordinary price levels.                     South East, with perhaps the exception of Reading,                                                                  185,000 sq ft letting to HMRC at Ruskin Square.         improved asset performance, with headline rental          market for the first time since the 1980s.
Yet, in reality, we have seen rents move on with
                                                                                                                       Oxford and Cambridge.                                                                                                                                                       growth of 39% for the market’s best product over
headline rents hitting an all-time record level of           However looking forward, at Horley Business                                                                                                                                   Central to this rebirth has been the removal of                                                                   A diverse range of occupiers, including Body Shop,
                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                   the last four years.
£27.00 per sq ft at 2 City Place, Gatwick.                   Park which lies just to the north of the airport (but     Nestlé, Elekta, Virgin, Deloitte, L3, Thales, Novo                                                                  dated office stock; the delivery of brand new,                                                                    EDF Energy, Towergate and most recently Green
                                                             technically falls outside of the Crawley / Gatwick        Nordisk, Boeing / Jeppersen, amongst others have                                                                    or materially new, Grade A offices at the likes         This in turn has generated growing investor               Networks, are amongst those occupiers who have
In comparison to the remainder of the South
                                                             market boundary), up to 1.5 million sq ft of new office   all made major, long-term commitments to the                                                                        of Interchange and Renaissance, providing               interest and confidence in the market, which              made the jump in the last 24 months, paying rents
East this rental level looks extremely good value,
                                                             space can potentially be delivered over the next few      market over recent years as they have sought to                                                                     large, flexible floor-plates and superior building      has led to greater speculative investment in both         of up to £34.00 per sq ft - an all-time record for the
particularly when one considers the proximity
to London Gatwick Airport and the national and
                                                             years. Outside of this scheme, the choice available       benefit from relatively cheap real estate costs but
                                                                                                                                                                                         7.1                            7.5                performance that cater for modern business needs;       new-build and refurbished office stock. The               town. We expect more occupiers to follow them.
                                                             to those occupiers seeking high quality space will        excellent connectivity into London, the South East                                                                  and a new wave of London out-migration, as              momentum achieved is now delivering a grade of
international connectivity offered by the airport                                                                                                                                                                 House price to
                                                             become thinner as existing office stock ages.             and internationally.                                        House price to                                          promised but rarely seen since the 1980s.               office property that the Croydon market had for
itself, as well as the adjacent rail station.                                                                                                                                                                      income ratio
                                                                                                                                                                                    income ratio                                                                                                   many years, failed to deliver to an increasingly
                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                   discerning occupier.

                        TAKE-UP                                          SUPPLY                                             PRIME RENT                                                                                                     TAKE-UP                                            SUPPLY                                             PRIME RENT

                        70,100                                           291,800                                            £27.00                                                                                                         58,600                                             268,500                                            £34.00
                                                sq ft                                                     sq ft                                       per sq ft                                                 28 OF 4,300+                                           sq ft                                                   sq ft                                           per sq ft
                                                                                                                                                                                 77 OF 4,300+                  GB retail destination
                                                                                                                                                                               GB retail destination             ranking (CACI)

                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                              REVIEW OF 2017
 REVIEW OF 2017

                                   42% below the                         2.4 years                                          3% CAGR                                              ranking (CACI)                                                        50% below the                          2.3 years                                          7% CAGR
                                   10 year average                       market supply                                      (5 years)                                                                                                                  10 year average                        market supply                                      (5 years)

                         A B C D E F G H I     J K L M N O P Q R         A B C D E F G H I        J K L M N O P Q R          A B C D E F G H I      J K L M N O P Q R                                                                       A B C D E F G H I      J K L M N O P Q R            A B C D E F G H I    J K L M N O P Q R            A B C D E F G H I       J K L M N O P Q R
                                                                                                                                                                                                                 20 MINUTES

                        667,700                                         548,200                                             £29.00                                                                                                         1,038,300                                          1,288,000                                         £36.50
                                                                                                                                                                                  46 MINUTES                     To central London
                                                     sq ft                                                    sq ft                                                                                                                                                              sq ft                                               sq ft
                                                                                                                                                                                 To central London
 PROJECTIONS

                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                              PROJECTIONS
                        Space subject to a                               Development pipeline                                       Prime rent per                                                                                         Space subject to a                                 Development pipeline                                       Prime rent per
                        lease event 2018-2021                            (5 years)                                                  sq ft by 2021                                                                                          lease event 2018-2021                              (5 years)                                                  sq ft by 2021

                                                                                                                                                                                                                       2015
                                                                                                                                                                                                                 Article 4 imposed
                         A B C D E F G H I     J K L M N O P Q R         A B C D E F G H I        J K L M N O P Q R          A B C D E F G H I      J K L M N O P Q R              540 ACRES                     to prevent further         A B C D E F G H I      J K L M N O P Q R            A B C D E F G H I    J K L M N O P Q R            A B C D E F G H I       J K L M N O P Q R

                                                                                                                                                                               Manor Royal coverage             office conversion to
                        A_ Blackwater Valley    D_ Cambridge             G_ Guildford               J_ Oxford               M_ Staines-upon-         P_ West London                                                                       A_ Blackwater Valley      D_ Cambridge             G_ Guildford             J_ Oxford                 M_ Staines-upon-          P_ West London
                                                                                                                                                                                                                   residential use
                        B_ Bracknell            E_ Crawley / Gatwick     H_ Heathrow                K_ Reading                  Thames                Q_ Wimbledon                                                                         B_ Bracknell              E_ Crawley / Gatwick     H_ Heathrow              K_ Reading                    Thames                 Q_ Wimbledon
                        C_ Brighton             F_ Croydon               I_ Maidenhead              L_ Slough               N_ Uxbridge               R_ Woking                                                                            C_ Brighton               F_ Croydon               I_ Maidenhead            L_ Slough                 N_ Uxbridge                R_ Woking
                                                                                                                            O_ Watford                                                                                                                                                                                                           O_ Watford

KNIGHT FRANK VIEW                                                                                                                                                                                                                          KNIGHT FRANK VIEW
Crawley / Gatwick’s fundamentals of multi-              With a connection to the Elizabeth Line at                                                                               2.5 MINUTES                                                                                                  What a change since then. Speculative
                                                                                                                                                                                                                                           Croydon is no longer the town that Nestlé felt
modal transport, historically affordable land           Farringdon from 2019, and London bound                                                                               Train frequency to central              £1.4BN                compelled to leave in 2011, having exhausted       office development, London out-migration,
and a strong local skills base has seen the             trains every two minutes, infrastructure                                                                                  London by 2024               Cost to build the new       all attempts to secure a property solution.        a hugely improved cultural scene and
local market deliver major occupier deals,              will be a key item for Gatwick. Oyster-users                                                                                                            Westfield Shopping                                                            streetscape, a growing tech sector and 30%+
over many years - many on a pre-let basis.              can already access the station, opening the                                                                                                                                        Prior to this, local government inertia and a      rental growth in less than five years.
                                                                                                                                                                                                              Centre, due to complete
                                                        market ever-wider to the young, skilled                                                                                                                                            poor urban environment rendered Croydon
The current supply conditions may dictate                                                                                                                                                                             in 2022              an unappealing location, with only the             Croydon still has a way to go – it still sees
                                                        London population. For these workers out-
that ‘vanilla’ office occupiers will have a                                                                                                                                                                                                fast rail service and relatively cheap South       some adverse press coverage and it’s not
                                                        migration is simply a matter of convenience
range of standing options to choose from                                                                                                                                                                                                   London staff pool providing reasons for            pretty – but it really WORKS. With Westfield
                                                        and travel time, not address.
and will expect to negotiate hard - although                                                                                                                                                                                               low-level financial services and government        and Hammerson still to come, it’s only going
                                                                                                             Will Foster                                                                                                                                                                                                                        Will Foster
recent evidence suggests the best quality                                                                                                                                                                                                  divisions to locate or remain here.                to get better.
products in the market can still generate                                                                    will.foster@knightfrank.com                                       Gatwick was the world’s                                                                                                                                          will.foster@knightfrank.com
improving rents.                                                                                                                                                             first airport to have a direct     Croydon airport was
                                                                                                                                                                               mainline train link with a     the first to introduce air
                                                                                                                                                                               dedicated railway station            traffic control
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                                                       Guildford                                                                                                                                                                                       Heathrow
                                                        Although rocked by some recent corporate out-migrations, the                                                                                                                                    A market of international repute, Heathrow is starting to see the
                                                        market remains strong in its amenity offer and its educational                                                                                                                                  influx of flexible office providers keen to offer solutions to corporate
                                                        infrastructure augurs well for a growing role in the tech sector.                                                                                                                               occupiers and their transitory workers passing through the airport.

A FLAGSHIP LOCATION                                           OUT-MIGRATION?                                          RECORD RENTS                                                                                                    THE WORLD’S BUSIEST AIRPORT?                               BUSINESS PARK REFURBS                                       FLEXIBLE CORPORATE SPACE
Guildford has, for many years, rightly considered             It has not all been plain sailing recently, however.    Despite this, Guildford remains the number                                                                      As a major source of business generation for the           With a total built office stock of over 10m sq ft,          Heathrow is home to several large corporate
itself as the flagship commercial and residential             The recently confirmed exit of major blue-chip          one Surrey location for professional services,                                                                  UK, a flourishing office market has developed              Hillingdon, inclusive of Heathrow, accounts                 occupiers. Unsurprisingly, the aviation industry
location in the Surrey commuter belt. The                     Ericsson - and going forward, possibly Sanofi           with accountancy and legal services providing                                                                   around Heathrow. Growth of the airport is                  for 15% of the built stock in the M4 corridor.              has a strong presence, with British Airways and
high street is one of the most popular shopping               as well - to the Thames Valley provides cause           good levels of on-going market activity. This is          134,150 SQ FT               297,000 SQ FT             reaching the final stages of approval, with the final      Significantly, approximately, two thirds of this            BAA having an HQ on the Bath Road.
destinations in the UK, as evidenced by Guildford             for concern.                                            particularly the case in the town centre core, where                                  Office space lost to      parliamentary decision on a third runway expected          office stock is business park space.
                                                                                                                                                                               Office space lost to                                                                                                                                                          The technology sector, however, has been the
taking third position in the latest Knight Frank                                                                      top office rents are now touching £34.00 per sq ft,                                                             in 2018 - yet still is in flux.
                                                              There is also an affordability factor: young workers                                                            Permitted Development        Permitted Development                                                                 Stockley Park and Bedfont Lakes are the dominant            dominant source of new demand over the past 10
High Street Investment Ranking .                                                                                      an all-time high.
                                                              have difficulty getting on the local housing ladder,                                                                                                                    If approved, passenger numbers will rise from 78           parks close to Heathrow, with the former being the          years, accounting for 32% of take-up. Global names
Excellent schools abound and the town is also                 with new apartments often commanding prices of          In addition, the town is well-placed to capture a                                                               million to 130 million per year, making Heathrow           longest established business park in the Thames             such as Cisco, IBM, and Rackspace sit alongside
home to both the University of Law and the                    over £600.00 per sq ft.                                 growing share of the burgeoning tech market. The                                                                the busiest airport in the world. Served by rail,          Valley at 32 years old.                                     pharma occupiers such as Gilead, Celgene, GSK,
University of Surrey, providing an excellent                                                                          University of Surrey is highly rated in many fields                                                             underground and major road routes, connectivity                                                                        and Merck.
                                                              As a result, certain business sectors within the                                                                                                                                                                                   Recent development work has centred on these
recruiting ground for businesses seeking high-                                                                        of science, technology and R&D, with the centre                                                                 is already a major business attraction.
                                                              regional office market, such as insurance and                                                                                                                                                                                      schemes, with 336,500 sq ft of major refurbishment          Although not yet a stampede, flexible office
calibre graduates.                                                                                                    for 5G mobile phone technology based on campus.
                                                              other mainstream financial services, may choose                                                                                                                         This will be bolstered by connections to the               projects completed over the past 24 months.                 providers have begun to influence the Heathrow
                                                              locations such as Redhill or Woking which may be        Also, encouragingly, in re-positioning the town at                                                              Elizabeth Line in 2019. In addition, consultation          Additionally, LLF Real Estate completed                     market. IWG / Regus have two facilities on
                                                              more affordable for staff.                              the forefront of the value-add industry, computer                                                               for the Western Rail Approach to Heathrow is               speculative works on the 84,000 sq ft Heathrow              Stockley Park and other providers are expected
                                                                                                                      games is also a major growth story – in some circles
                                                                                                                                                                                        6.8                         7.5               ongoing. The link to the Great Western Mainline            Approach and Arora Group have built the 85,000              to follow and take advantage of the strong
                                                                                                                      Guildford is known as the ‘Hollywood of Gaming’.            House price to               House price to         would increase rail traffic to and from Reading            sq ft 4 World Business Centre to accommodate a              corporate presence.
                                                                                                                                                                                   income ratio                 income ratio          and the West of England. Works are expected to             pre-let to tech firm Amadeus.
                                                                                                                                                                                                                                      complete in 2024, if approved.

                        TAKE-UP                                          SUPPLY                                            PRIME RENT                                                                                                 TAKE-UP                                             SUPPLY                                                 PRIME RENT

                        85,000                                           148,000                                           £34.00                                                                                                     79,400                                              788,700                                                £37.50
                                                  sq ft                                                    sq ft                                        per sq ft               37 OF 4,300+                                                                       sq ft                                                    sq ft                                         per sq ft
                                                                                                                                                                               GB retail destination
                                                                                                                                                                                                             15 MINUTES

                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                           REVIEW OF 2017
 REVIEW OF 2017

                                                                                                                                                                                 ranking (CACI)              To central London
                                   28% above the                         2.2 years                                         4% CAGR                                                                                                                39% below the                           6.0 years                                              5% CAGR
                                   10 year average                       market supply                                     (5 years)                                                                                                              10 year average                         market supply                                          (5 years)

                         A B C D E F G H I     J K L M N O P Q R          A B C D E F G H I       J K L M N O P Q R         A B C D E F G H I      J K L M N O P Q R                                                                   A B C D E F G H I       J K L M N O P Q R              A B C D E F G H I     J K L M N O P Q R             A B C D E F G H I      J K L M N O P Q R
                                                                                                                                                                                                                   2024
                                                                                                                                                                                 38 MINUTES

                        583,300                                           313,200                                          £35.00                                                                                                     902,300                                             185,100                                                £39.00
                                                                                                                                                                                                            Western Rail Link to
                                                      sq ft                                               sq ft                                                                  To central London           Heathrow opens                                                sq ft                                         sq ft
 PROJECTIONS

                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                           PROJECTIONS
                        Space subject to a                                Development pipeline                                      Prime rent per                                                                                    Space subject to a                                  Development pipeline                                           Prime rent per
                        lease event 2018-2021                             (5 years)                                                 sq ft by 2021                                                                                     lease event 2018-2021                               (5 years)                                                      sq ft by 2021

                                                                                                                                                                                       44%                         78M
                         A B C D E F G H I     J K L M N O P Q R          A B C D E F G H I       J K L M N O P Q R         A B C D E F G H I      J K L M N O P Q R                                                                   A B C D E F G H I       J K L M N O P Q R              A B C D E F G H I     J K L M N O P Q R             A B C D E F G H I      J K L M N O P Q R
                                                                                                                                                                                                             Passengers passed
                                                                                                                                                                             Employees in Guildford
                                                                                                                                                                                                          through Heathrow Airport
                        A_ Blackwater Valley    D_ Cambridge             G_ Guildford               J_ Oxford              M_ Staines-upon-         P_ West London          have a degree or higher                                  A_ Blackwater Valley       D_ Cambridge             G_ Guildford                J_ Oxford                  M_ Staines-upon-         P_ West London
                                                                                                                                                                                                                  in 2017
                        B_ Bracknell            E_ Crawley / Gatwick     H_ Heathrow                K_ Reading                 Thames                Q_ Wimbledon            educational qualification                                B_ Bracknell               E_ Crawley / Gatwick     H_ Heathrow                 K_ Reading                     Thames                Q_ Wimbledon
                        C_ Brighton             F_ Croydon               I_ Maidenhead              L_ Slough              N_ Uxbridge               R_ Woking                                                                        C_ Brighton                F_ Croydon               I_ Maidenhead               L_ Slough                  N_ Uxbridge               R_ Woking
                                                                                                                           O_ Watford                                                                                                                                                                                                            O_ Watford

KNIGHT FRANK VIEW                                                                                                                                                                                                                     KNIGHT FRANK VIEW
Other than the traffic, this is a genuine               businesses and skilled staff, and can provide a                                                                                                                               Heathrow will remain a key hub due to its           Rental growth has been significant in
lifestyle location, matching the charms of              major differentiator over competing locations                                                                                   5G                         2018               status as a major centre for international          Heathrow over the last five years, with
St Albans or Windsor and with rents to match            such as Woking, Farnborough and Weybridge                                                                                                                                     corporate businesses, although the third            prime headline rents moving up from
                                                                                                                                                                                The 5G Innovation            Final Parliamentary
for best stock. Some businesses – especially            and indeed, over those further afield as well.                                                                                                                                runway construction works may lead to some          £29.50 to the mid £30’s, an increase of 27%.
                                                                                                                                                                             Centre is the UK’s largest   approval expected on the
their senior staff, perhaps – will be attracted to                                                                                                                                                                                    short term pain.                                    Our forecasts indicate that growth will be
the town, although their staffing profile will                                                                                                                               academic research centre      proposed third runway                                                          sustained, with an increase to £39.00 per sq ft
                                                                                                                                                                                                                                      The serviced and co-working offering
increasingly dictate locational choice with                                                                                                                                                                                                                                               anticipated by 2021.
                                                                                                                                                                                                                                      must become increasingly sophisticated
employee turnover, a critical factor these days.
                                                                                                                                                                                                                                      and grow in order to take advantage of the
The knowledge economy is the trump card                                                                                                                                                                                               major corporate occupier presence around
for the South East of England over other
                                                                                                             Will Foster                                                                                                              Heathrow. This occupational drive toward
                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                 Emma Goodford
regions and indeed other European locations.                                                                 will.foster@knightfrank.com                                         Guildford was the                                    greater flexibility and amenity is filtering into                                                          Head of National Offices
Accordingly, the town’s relationship with                                                                                                                                     location for the earliest    Heathrow Terminal 5 is     the business park model where we are already                                                               emma.goodford@knightfrank.com
its two universities look vital to the longer                                                                                                                                   reference to cricket,     the largest free-standing   seeing Stockley Park and Bedfont Lakes
term retention and capture of high margin                                                                                                                                       dated January 1597           structure in the UK      become more service orientated.
16 |              KNIGHT FRANK: M25 Report 2018                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                            KNIGHT FRANK: M25 Report 2018            | 17

                                                       Maidenhead                                                                                                                                                                                    Oxford
                                                        A market whose appeal will strengthen with enhanced connectivity via                                                                                                                         A market full of occupiers at the leading edge of bioscience, robotics
                                                        the Elizabeth Line and town centre regeneration progress, but one that                                                                                                                       and many new wave technologies and one set to further benefit
                                                        will need to witness a further injection of quality office supply in order to                                                                                                                from enhanced connectivity between the city centre and out-of-town
                                                        convert that appeal into concrete commitment from occupiers.                                                                                                                                 science and business parks.

EXTENSIVE REGENERATION                                         LIMITED QUALITY SUPPLY                                 GROWING TOWN CENTRE FOCUS                                                                                      COHESION THROUGH CONNECTIVITY                             COMMERCIAL KNOWLEDGE                                    SCIENCE VALE
Maidenhead is fast gaining a reputation as a                   The heart of Maidenhead is constrained, creating a     Given the supply and demand dynamic noted, the                                                                 There are renewed attempts to enhance the                 Oxford’s academic pre-eminence has shown                The emergence of Science Vale in the south Oxford
centre of strategic importance not only within the             potential limiting factor for future growth. Choice    emergence of high-quality space around the town’s                                                              cohesion of the Oxford market by creating stronger        considerable commercial teeth over recent               market, badged the UK’s home for scientists,
Thames Valley but also across the wider South East             for occupiers is extremely limited at present at a     train station will be crucial to the future success                                                            public transport connectivity between the city            years. The establishment of the university’s own        entrepreneurs and innovators has created a
office market. The almost £1 billion regeneration              time when demand has been on the rise, driven by       of the market. There are 10 development schemes             57,600 SQ FT               247,200 SQ FT           centre and out of town science and business parks.        innovation fund - Oxford Sciences Innovation            knowledge based industry cluster, located midway
programme aimed at transforming the town                       the Elizabeth Line.                                    within the town with consent for offices, but only                                                                                                                       – has sought to create an infrastructure and            between the M4 and Oxford and supported by
                                                                                                                                                                                 Office space lost to        Office space lost to    Central to this would be the re-opening of the
centre, alongside the continued availability of good                                                                  one – with a total size of 20,000 sq ft – actually has                                                                                                                   environment supportive of knowledge-based spin-         local authorities in the area.
                                                               2017 saw almost 135,000 sq ft of take-up in the                                                                  Permitted Development       Permitted Development    Cowley Branch Line, which last took passengers
quality, affordable housing is appealing to a young                                                                   works underway.                                                                                                                                                          offs. The fund searches Oxford’s Math, Physical,
                                                               market – a figure that is 15% above the long-term                                                                                                                     back in 1963. The proposed reopening of the line,                                                                 Its aim is to build on the research talent within
and talented labour force seeking to migrate from                                                                                                                                                                                                                                              Life Sciences, Medical Sciences, Computer
                                                               annual average. The consequence of this has been       The consented office space within the London &                                                                 which could be as early as 2019, would link Oxford                                                                the area to create one of the most significant
more expensive and central areas.                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                              Sciences and Engineering divisions to spot
                                                               that best quality supply presented by the market       Aberdeen Groups The Landing development will                                                                   Business Park and Oxford Science Park to the                                                                      commercial knowledge based clusters in the
                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                               opportunities for commercialisation.
Of course, the arrival of the Elizabeth Line, in               has been rapidly absorbed.                             obviously be significant over the longer term and                                                              city centre and Oxford train station in around                                                                    world. Science Vale amounts to 216 hectares of
2019, will further add to the appeal of Maidenhead                                                                    will serve to support the further promotion of the                                                             10 minutes. The economic value of opening the             To date it has raised over £600m to support more        development land spread across seven distinct
                                                               This is leaving occupiers with no choice but to
as a place to live and work and will induce further                                                                   city centre as a place of connection, talent and                                                               Chiltern corridor north to Oxford Parkway and             than 40 companies in fields as diverse as drug          locations. It benefits from two designated
                                                               extend their search areas beyond the city centre.
demand from global and national businesses                                                                            vibrant amenity.                                                                                               Bicester is evident. The real benefit of enhanced         discovery and cutting-edge machine learning. This       Enterprise Zones – Science Vale Oxford and the
                                                               As they seek high quality space, occupiers are
seeking a regional hub within striking distance of                                                                                                                                                                                   train connectivity is reducing dependence on the          is an important development in the context of the       Didcot Growth Accelerator.
                                                               starting to focus their attention on either the                                                                           7.3
central London.
                                                               out-of-town market, or alternative centres, such as
                                                                                                                                                                                                                     7.3             car and the resulting congestion. Furthermore,            Oxford real estate market – essentially creating a
                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                       Particularly encouraging is the fact that the
                                                                                                                                                                                    House price to                                   this would be a key element of a wider transport          pool of local, knowledge-intensive and potentially
                                                               Reading and Slough.                                                                                                                             House price to                                                                                                                          area is synonymous with emerging, new wave
                                                                                                                                                                                                                                     initiative that could ultimately lead to the              high-growth occupiers in the market.
                                                                                                                                                                                     income ratio               income ratio                                                                                                                           technologies. For example, Science Vale has
                                                                                                                                                                                                                                     redevelopment of Oxford’s main railway and the
                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                       recently been designated the first place within the
                                                                                                                                                                                                                                     creation of an East-West rail link with Cambridge.
                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                       UK to host fully autonomous vehicle trials.

                        TAKE-UP                                           SUPPLY                                           PRIME RENT                                                                                                TAKE-UP                                              SUPPLY                                           PRIME RENT

                        134,600                                           436,400                                          £38.50                                                                                                    245,000                                              289,000                                          £31.00
                                                     sq ft                                                  sq ft                                       per sq ft                306 OF 4,300+               42 OF 4,300+                                             sq ft                                                sq ft                                      per sq ft
                                                                                                                                                                                 GB retail destination       GB retail destination

                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                      REVIEW OF 2017
 REVIEW OF 2017

                                                                                                                                                                                   ranking (CACI)              ranking (CACI)
                                   15% above the                          3.7 years                                        4% CAGR                                                                                                              30% above the                             1.5 years                                        8% CAGR
                                   10 year average                        market supply                                    (5 years)                                                                                                            10 year average                           market supply                                    (5 years)

                        A B C D E F G H I      J K L M N O P Q R           A B C D E F G H I      J K L M N O P Q R          A B C D E F G H I       J K L M N O P Q R                                                               A B C D E F G H I      J K L M N O P Q R             A B C D E F G H I      J K L M N O P Q R          A B C D E F G H I      J K L M N O P Q R

                        836,400                                           396,900                                          £42.00                                                                                                    284,600                                              298,900                                          £36.00
                                                                                                                                                                                   22 MINUTES                 56 MINUTES
                                                       sq ft                                               sq ft                                                                  To central London           To central London                                       sq ft                                               sq ft

                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                      PROJECTIONS
 PROJECTIONS

                        Space subject to a                                Development pipeline                                      Prime rent per                                                                                   Space subject to a                                   Development pipeline                                      Prime rent per
                        lease event 2018-2021                             (5 years)                                                 sq ft by 2021                                                                                    lease event 2018-2021                                (5 years)                                                 sq ft by 2021

                        A B C D E F G H I      J K L M N O P Q R           A B C D E F G H I      J K L M N O P Q R          A B C D E F G H I       J K L M N O P Q R
                                                                                                                                                                                        £1BN                      23,200             A B C D E F G H I      J K L M N O P Q R             A B C D E F G H I      J K L M N O P Q R          A B C D E F G H I      J K L M N O P Q R
                                                                                                                                                                                  New investment for         University students
                        A_ Blackwater Valley    D_ Cambridge              G_ Guildford              J_ Oxford              M_ Staines-upon-          P_ West London              regeneration of the                                A_ Blackwater Valley     D_ Cambridge                G_ Guildford             J_ Oxford               M_ Staines-upon-         P_ West London
                        B_ Bracknell            E_ Crawley / Gatwick      H_ Heathrow               K_ Reading                 Thames                 Q_ Wimbledon                   town centre                                     B_ Bracknell             E_ Crawley / Gatwick        H_ Heathrow              K_ Reading                  Thames                Q_ Wimbledon
                        C_ Brighton             F_ Croydon                I_ Maidenhead             L_ Slough              N_ Uxbridge                R_ Woking                                                                      C_ Brighton              F_ Croydon                  I_ Maidenhead            L_ Slough               N_ Uxbridge               R_ Woking
                                                                                                                           O_ Watford                                                                                                                                                                                                      O_ Watford

KNIGHT FRANK VIEW                                                                                                                                                                                                                    KNIGHT FRANK VIEW
The town centre has historically                        Given such improvements to the civic realm                                                                                                                26,400             Oxford’s historic city centre, the nature of         Whilst the out-of-town science and business
underwhelmed new potential occupiers but                and very little new space currently under                                                                                                                                    which has restricted significant development,        parks will continue to flourish with
with the recent appointment of the HUB                  construction, we anticipate further growth
                                                                                                                                                                                        2019                  Digital sector jobs    means the office and laboratory market               demand from spin-outs from Oxford
Group as development manager on The                     in rents which have achieved annualised                                                                                Four trains an hour to run                            remains driven by the out-of-town science            University and the R&D cluster which
Landing scheme, London & Aberdeen Group                 growth of 4% over the last five years.                                                                                   on the Elizabeth line                               and business parks which have the available          surrounds it, the next generation of product
are expected to submit a formal planning                                                                                                                                                                                             sites to deliver the high quality office space       for the city will be led by the regeneration
application. Inclusive of office, retail and                                                                                                                                                                                         that occupiers demand.                               around the city centre sites, including Oxpens
residential space, The Landing scheme will                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                and Osney Mead, which will also help spur
                                                                                                                                                                                                                                     Over 200,000 sq ft of Grade A
provide a key enhancement in terms of the                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                 further rental growth.
                                                                                                                                                                                                                                     accommodation is being delivered through
amenity provision and vibrancy of this centre                                                               Emma Goodford                                                                                                                                                                                                                  Will Buttery
                                                                                                                                                                                                                                     speculative developments at Milton Park,
so often unfavourably compared to Marlow,
                                                                                                            Head of National Offices                                                                                                 Harwell and Oxford Science Park, although                                                             william.buttery@knightfrank.com
with it’s first-class high street but poor
                                                                                                            emma.goodford@knightfrank.com                                       Prime Minister Theresa      Oxford University has    much of this space is anticipated to be
connectivity.
                                                                                                                                                                                   May is the MP for         educated 27 British     committed at practical completion due to
                                                                                                                                                                                     Maidenhead                Prime Ministers       pent-up market demand.
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