The Dublin-Belfast Economic Corridor: Current Profile, Potential for Recovery & Opportunities for Cooperation - Dublin Belfast Economic Corridor
←
→
Page content transcription
If your browser does not render page correctly, please read the page content below
The Dublin–Belfast Economic Corridor: Current Profile, Potential for Recovery & Opportunities for Cooperation Full Report / March 2021
Full Report March 2021 Neale Blair Jordana Corrigan Eoin Magennis Deiric Ó Broin www.dbec.info
Current Profile, Potential for Recovery & Opportunities for Cooperation 3
Contents
Foreword 04
Executive Summary 08
1. Introduction 19
2. Lessons from other Corridors 23
2.1 What exactly is a corridor? 23
2.2 Ingredients (conditions) for success 26
2.3 Island of Ireland 28
2.4 Concluding points 29
3. The Island Economy: Two Places, One Crisis 31
3.1 Republic of Ireland: Recent growth but severe shocks 32
3.2 Northern Ireland: Risks ahead after an unprecedented year 35
3.3 COVID-19: Economic impacts and prospects 36
4 Profile of the Dublin-Belfast Economic Corridor 39
4.1 Demography / Population 40
4.2 Labour Market & Commuting 44
4.3 Educational Attainment and Skills 48
4.4 Future Skills 52
4.5 Enterprise trends 54
5. Strengths of the Dublin-Belfast Economic Corridor 59
5.1 Key assets on the Corridor 59
‘Hard’ infrastructural assets 60
‘Soft’ infrastructural assets 63
5.2 Key sectors on the Corridor 65
Sectoral concentrations 65
Priority sectors 69
The potential for clusters 75
6. Areas for cooperation on the Dublin-Belfast Economic Corridor 77
6.1 Promotion 77
Skills 77
Sectoral strengths 78
Enterprise supports 78
6.2 Infrastructure 79
Research & Innovation 79
Environmental resilience and management 80
7. Notes & References 83
4 The Dublin–Belfast Economic Corridor
Foreword
We believe that the time has come for fresh
impetus to be given to the development of
the Dublin–Belfast Economic Corridor. There
have been successes along the Corridor since
the 1990s, particularly in terms of employment
opportunities, peace–building and the
removal of barriers, and the rolling out of new
transport infrastructure. Much of this success
is due to cooperation at both the all–island
and local cross–border levels.
As we enter another new decade we role of local government in providing
believe that much more collaboration key frontline services and offering an
is possible for mutual benefit between important point of contact between
the cities of Dublin and Belfast and the central government and citizens has
regions between. In 2018 a network never been more obvious. The need
of eight Councils located along the for greater collaboration has also
Corridor and two universities came been highlighted.
together to work collectively to find
ways of realising the potential benefits There is also the out–workings of
of further development of the Corridor. Brexit, which highlight the need for
This report is the first output of this the Corridor and the island as a whole
collective work. to remain competitive in a changing
world. The climate emergency is another
We are conscious that this report factor which must shape our thinking
and the work of the local government about the future development of a
network does not exist in a vacuum. region, almost all of which bounds
As we launch this report the COVID–19 the East coast.
pandemic has given a severe shock to
economies and communities across the As Councils each of us are involved
globe. The impacts of having to shutter in regional, county and community
large parts of the economy and asking spatial and inclusive strategies. All of
people to stay at home, in order to assist these identify the challenges and the
with public health, are only beginning to possibilities attached to demographic
work their way through our systems. The changes, housing pressures, and the
Current Profile, Potential for Recovery & Opportunities for Cooperation 5
need to secure employment opportunities for all of
our populations. In some areas we will compete with
one another but we also hold a shared recognition
of the potential benefits attached to any initiative to
develop the Corridor.
These potential benefits associated with the Dublin–
Belfast Economic Corridor are regularly mentioned
by central governments, most recently in Ireland
2040 and New Decade, New Agreement. We
recognise the crucial role that is and will continue to
be played by government departments, economic
development and other agencies and many other
stakeholders from across our communities, including
the voluntary and private sectors. We are publishing
this report as our contribution to the wider
conversation that will be necessary in developing
any larger strategy to develop the Dublin–Belfast
Economic Corridor.
Our immediate objective, as members of a local
government and higher education network, will be
to leverage the network’s resources in areas which
we believe can have a positive impact and add
significant value to the economic development of
the Corridor at a time of great economic and social
uncertainty. To this end, we have already established
a partnership steering group of the Chief Executives
and heads of the two universities committed to meet
quarterly and a working group of local government
and university staff tasked with developing a series
of cooperative initiatives and projects which can
begin to realise this objective.
We commend this report to you as
an initial contribution to this work.6 The Dublin–Belfast Economic Corridor
Roger Wilson, Chief Executive Suzanne Wylie, Chief Executive
Armagh City, Banbridge & Craigavon Belfast City Council
Borough Council
Owen Keegan, Chief Executive AnnMarie Farrelly, Chief Executive
Dublin City Council Fingal County Council
David Burns, Chief Executive Joan Martin, Chief Executive
Lisburn and Castlereagh City Council Louth County Council
Jackie Maguire, Chief Executive Marie Ward, Chief Executive
Meath County Council Newry, Mourne and Down District Council8 The Dublin–Belfast Economic Corridor
Executive
Summary
1. The concept of a Dublin–Belfast 3. The geographical definition
or Eastern Economic Corridor is one used for the Dublin–Belfast Economic
that has been in circulation since the Corridor is intended to combine both
early 1990s, at a time when the ideas administrative and functional geography.
of high growth zones, regions or The administrative boundaries reflect
corridors were emerging. Since then the eight Councils who have formed
economic corridors have entered a local authority network driven by
mainstream policy and have also the idea of looking afresh at the
developed from a focus purely on opportunities associated with the
transport infrastructure into more Corridor. The functional geography
complex economic zones attractive is intended to reflect a region which
to inward investment and a potential contains the significant road and rail
tool to tackle regional disparities. infrastructure links between Dublin
and Belfast.
2. This report has been
commissioned by a local government 4. This report details the recent
network formed by eight Councils strong economic performance of the
located in the Dublin–Belfast Economic Corridor, as well as the significant
Corridor, who then asked staff from impacts that COVID–19 is having and
Ulster University and Dublin City likely to continue having on local
University to research and write the economies. As noted above a key reason
report in cooperation with the Councils.1 for the appearance of the report at this
The network came together with a time is that the Corridor faces some
shared recognition of the potential significant risks.
benefits that could arise from such an
initiative and the challenges that might 5. However, there are also
face it in the coming years, not least the opportunities which present themselves,
outcome of the UK’s exit from the EU. In not least in the initiatives and
the course of the project, the COVID–19 investments which will flow from the
pandemic has further significantly Belfast Region City Deal and the Ireland
shifted the economic trajectory. 2040 plans. The report therefore also
begins the work of identifying potential
areas for cooperation which could
create a stronger trajectory for growth.
1 The local authority network currently has Armagh City, Banbridge and Craigavon Borough Council, Belfast City
Council, Dublin City Council, Fingal County Council, Lisburn & Castlereagh City Borough Council, Louth County Council,
Meath County Council and Newry, Mourne & Down District Council as members.Current Profile, Potential for Recovery & Opportunities for Cooperation 9
Reflections from other 8. The lessons also help to identify
economic corridors a number of ingredients for successful
cooperation:
6. The research looked at examples • It is important to agree upon the
of economic corridors in other places, current stage of development of
from other parts of the island of Ireland any corridor. The Dublin–Belfast
to GB, to continental Europe and further Economic Corridor project currently
afield in emerging economies. These looks like it is at the ‘Know the
examples are useful in offering a variety cross–border territory, know each
of rationales for deeper cooperation and other within the territory’ stage.
collaborative initiatives on the Dublin– • Cooperation among actors on a
Belfast Economic Corridor. corridor needs (consistent) time,
energy and support to be nurtured
7. First, learning from elsewhere and to grow.
can be useful in identifying next steps • Local actions can deliver strategic
for the Corridor. Although it is important objectives in a practical way,
to heed the warning that ‘no one–size particularly in areas such as
fits all approach for achieving good innovation centres and skill strategies.
governance in establishing partnership • A medium– to long–term perspective,
among towns, cities and rural regions’ less ‘big bang’ than ‘slow burn’,
(ESPON, 2015), a case does exist is critical, in particular around
for exploring further dimensions of developing governance and
partnership. Looking specifically at the securing resources.
experience of promoting cross–border • Early wins can help cement the
economic corridors, two key success partnership, give support to the
factors suggest themselves: agreed governance and ensure
sustainable cooperation.
1) Know the cross–border territory,
know each other within the territory 9. The examples of economic
– both the strengths, weaknesses, corridors in Oresund, the Cambridge/
and complementarities of the Milton Keynes/Oxford and East Asia all
different sides of the cross–border have one thing in common: the need
territory, but also economic and for a clear vision of what additional
knowledge flows that characterise it. economic growth might arise from
the development of regional and local
2) Organise the governance of inter–governmental collaboration.
cross–border economic development This ranges from aspirational doubling
and involve all relevant territorial of additional economic output growth
stakeholders active within the cross– by 2050 in the case of Cambridge/
border territory including all levels Milton Keynes/Oxford, to the realized
of government. share of strong economic growth in the
case of the corridors of the Mekong
region in Asia.10 The Dublin–Belfast Economic Corridor
Recent performance in the 13. The labour market impacts of
Dublin–Belfast Economic COVID–19 have been immediate and
affected every part of the Dublin–
Corridor and COVID–19
Belfast Economic Corridor. The impact
has varied across the population of
10. In terms of population, the
the Corridor – more severe for those
Dublin–Belfast Economic Corridor has
in particular sectors and for younger
experienced strong growth in recent
people, those with fewer qualifications
decades. Since 2006 alone there has
and indeed lower incomes and fewer
been a 12% increase and, at the time of
resources – but few households have
the 2016 Census in Ireland, more than
not felt it. This breadth of effect but also
2 million people were living in the eight
particular severity for some sectors and
Council areas. Growth in the working
places should be central in any thinking
age population (16–64 year olds) is also
of recovery.
strong, and stands at 1.4 million people.
There are high levels of diversity within
14. By late January 2021 40% of those
this population, with 15% born outside
jobs or individuals on the island either
the island.
in receipt of Pandemic Unemployment
Payment or wage subsidy were located
11. Dublin city dominates the skyline
on the Corridor. This share has stayed
when we think of population with
similar throughout the pandemic but the
more than 1 in 4 of the population
overall numbers have fallen from a peak
in the Corridor living in the capital
of close to 500,000 in late June 2020
city. However, with Belfast and Fingal
to an estimate of perhaps 300,000 by
(between them more than the population
late February in the eight Council areas.
of Dublin) to act as counter–balances,
These numbers of people and jobs
this dominance lessens somewhat and
which remain impacted by COVID–19
perhaps points to how the Corridor, if
gives a sense of the size of the shock.
treated as a region, might lessen some
of the pressures on the capital.
15. Economic inactivity has also
increased in the past year but for those
12. The labour market in all parts
not participating in the labour market
of the Corridor has been very
due to ill health, caring duties or for
buoyant in recent years. By late 2019,
other reasons, it has been a long term
unemployment rates were close to
problem. Across the Corridor there are
or at historical lows, between 3% and
pockets of persistently high levels of
5% in most places. This was due to
inactivity, particularly in the Belfast,
recent strong growth in employment
Dublin, Armagh, Banbridge & Craigavon
numbers. On the eve of the COVID–19
(ABC) and Newry, Mourne & Down
pandemic, close to 1 million residents
(NMD) council areas. This problem is
of the Corridor were in work. An even
often correlated with high levels of
larger number of jobs are located on
people with no formal qualifications and
the Corridor, pulling in numbers of
difficulties faced in retraining, and this
commuters, particularly to Belfast
poses the question of how to improve
and Dublin at either end.
employability opportunities for up toCurrent Profile, Potential for Recovery & Opportunities for Cooperation 11
two fifths of residents in some places. In commuting patterns and in–migration
any recovery from a COVID–19 recession, from off the island. At present, more
these issues will also never be far away. than 5% of the million plus jobs on the
Corridor are filled by commuters onto
16. More than a third (34%) of the Corridor from other parts of the
residents of the Corridor have island, often with an even higher skills
educational attainments greater than profile than its residents.
NVQ Level 4, a share of the population
ahead of other parts of the island. 19. The demand for skills has partly
Although this share varies from 40% in been a result of a strong pipeline of
Dublin or Fingal to less than 30% in ABC inward investment jobs in recent years.
and Louth, and the share also varies This has been especially the case in
within individual Council areas, the Belfast, Dublin, Louth and, to a lesser
overall picture is of a well–educated extent, Meath. These location choices are
population which is available for work. supported by the recent results from FDI
Intelligence which found that the two
17. The presence of such a population cities feature prominently among the
– young and relatively well–educated – cities of choice globally. Dublin is No.1
is certainly a strength for the Corridor among the ‘large cities’ locations, while
as skills (or the availability of these) Belfast is No.2 among ‘mid–sized and
is regularly cited by businesses – both small cities’. Both cities score highest on
large and small – as a key challenge. what is called ‘business friendliness’, but
However, in every Council area on the less so on connectivity, suggesting one
Corridor, the demand for NVQ level 4 challenge to future potential.
and higher skills has been greater than
the supply. As the economy slowly 20. Of course, the inward investment
recovers from the shock in 2020, this pipeline is one that cannot be taken for
demand/supply imbalance is likely to granted. The Corridor faces different
return unless an opportunity is taken challenges at either end: an uncertainty
to address it. The voracious appetite of how far the Brexit NI Protocol will
businesses for talent will not slacken, benefit NI locations; and internal
even at a time when we might be competitiveness issues, in particular
looking at high levels of unemployment. around the availability and the costs
The current recognition of this issue by of suitable commercial property.
local authorities across the Corridor,
many of whom have developed skills 21. Beyond FDI, the enterprise base
strategies or skills fora to address the on the Corridor has been a buoyant
challenge of future skills, is work that one. Almost 2 in 5 (38%) of the island’s
will continue to be important in order to businesses are located there and the
stay out in front of competing regions. rates of firms per capita are strong too.
The Corridor, as a whole, has a higher
18. Currently, the question of the share of mid–sized businesses (with
ready supply, access and shortage between 50 and 250 employees) than
of advanced and intermediate skills elsewhere, which may point to the
on the Corridor is being answered by successful scaling–up processes there.12 The Dublin–Belfast Economic Corridor
22. However, the business Future prospects for the
demography patterns mirror the Dublin–Belfast Economic
economic divergence between North
Corridor?
and South. There are much higher
birth rates and enterprise stocks in
24. Before the COVID–19 emergency
Council areas in the southern end
began, the research included a series
of the Corridor than in Belfast and
of population and employment
others, reflecting other findings around
forecasts out to 2040, which were
entrepreneurship and appetite for risk.
based upon ‘baseline’ or ‘current
The scaling–up processes also appear
trends’ assumptions, while adjusting
on first look to be differing between
for potential impacts of Brexit.2
North and South, which may impact
in turn on innovation, export intensity
25. The pre–COVID ‘baseline’ scenario
and levels of productivity.
still contains some trends that are useful
to consider. The forecasts pointed to
23. Alongside the recent positive
the current divergence in growth rates
performance, there have been
between NI and Ireland continuing.
challenges facing the Corridor before
They also found that the Corridor would
the public health crisis. These are
continue its trajectory to becoming
associated with demographics and will
the location for a third of the island’s
remain after the Coronavirus. There are
population, perhaps reaching a total
particular challenges around housing
of 2.5 million people by 2040. And,
provision (which could worsen in the
even allowing for the severe shock
short term), affordability of this for the
of COVID–19, the ‘baseline’ scenario
‘adult’ life cycle group, in particular, and
identifies the possibility that 35%
slower population growth in Belfast
of the island’s jobs – nearly 1.3 million
city than in its neighbouring Council
jobs – could be located on the Corridor
areas. In line with elsewhere, rising
by 2040.
dependency ratios (ratio of the young
and old on the working age population)
26. None of this should underestimate
pose healthcare and employment
the economic impact of a COVID–19
issues for local and central government.
related recession. The estimates of
These trends pose questions for future
impact on GDP/GVA in both parts of the
planning, service provision and measures
island, at time of publication, hover at an
to deal with increasing congestion.
11% decline in NI and an export and fall
in Modified Domestic Demand (MDD) of
5.4% in the Republic of Ireland in 2020.
Uncertainty hangs over the shape of
any recovery in 2021 and beyond and,
as noted above, perhaps as many as
30% of the jobs in the Corridor may be
impacted, temporarily or otherwise, by
furloughs and lay–offs.
2 The scenario used forecasts/projections out to 2040 from UUEPC’s Summer 2019 Outlook for NI and from the
long–term forecasts for Ireland from the ESRI (Bergin et al, 2016).Current Profile, Potential for Recovery & Opportunities for Cooperation 13
27. Expectations for a strong recovery professionals. Indeed, this shift to higher
hinge on the success of the vaccine skilled jobs is likely to accelerate as a
programme, and these have become result of the pandemic. This points to
more optimistic since the turn of the the need to create a higher educational
year. Even so, many forecasters still attainment profile than exists at
do not expect economic output to present in the Corridor.
recover to 2019 levels until next year
at the earliest. The extent to which the 31. While this report did develop a
economy in the Dublin–Belfast Corridor ‘baseline’ or ‘current trends’ scenario
can restore its place as a driver to the before COVID–19, there are at least two
island’s economies may help dictate the alternative scenarios which should be
speed and sustainability of the recovery. developed in any subsequent research:
• One alternative is to hold
28. Allowing for the excess death the all–island population and
impacts of COVID–19, it remains clear employment totals constant but to
that all cohorts of the population will propose different types of spatial
increase with working age population development, where the Belfast–
providing a strong labour force into Dublin Economic Corridor accounts
the future. One pattern to note is that for or takes a greater (or smaller)
there will continue to be stronger share of total growth than in the
growth demographically in the southern ‘current trends’ scenario. This might
part of the Corridor, when compared arise due to planning policies or an
to the northern section. Another is industrial strategy based principally
that the growth patterns in the two on further developing agglomeration
cities are likely to continue to be or high growth regions (Katz &
outstripped by neighbouring areas, Wagner, 2014).
pointing again to the need for • Another alternative is that the
sustainable transport options. forecasts would include the
additional impacts of any
29. And although the pandemic means infrastructure investment or other
that we are likely to avoid a tight labour policy interventions on the Corridor.
market for a number of years again, the There is an argument that these
Corridor will see a continuing strong would create higher growth not
demand for skills. Between expansion only for the region but the island
demand and replacement demand (as as a whole. An alternative scenario
measured in a future skills assessment), like this would require details
there may be an annual net requirement on the proposed investments or
of 30–40,000 people from education interventions, which could then be
and net migration for the Corridor. built into the modelling of a ‘high
growth’ scenario.
30. Much of this net requirement
or demand will be in the professional
occupations, such as science &
technology professionals, health
professionals and business & service14 The Dublin–Belfast Economic Corridor
Attractiveness
to FDI
Connections to
Population
the world (ports
growth
and airports)
Agglomeration Educational
economies and attainment of
clustering population
Figure A1: Summary of the strengths of the Corridor
Strengths of the Corridor also has its local concentrations in ABC,
and sectoral priorities Louth and Meath.
32. Figure A1 summarises the 34. Alongside these concentrations
general strengths of the Corridor as it the Councils themselves have identified
is currently functioning, highlighting sectoral priorities for their areas, based
demographic trends, skills levels and on current strengths and aspirations
connectivity. These strengths hold even around capturing emerging sectoral
in light of the current events and public trends. The aim here is to develop
health crisis. networks and clusters of firms and
related research strengths. These
33. The report identifies the sectoral typically reflect the concentrations in
concentrations and strengths in the tradeable services, though at a more
Corridor, particularly across tradeable granular level the likes of cyber security
services (including ICT, Professional (Belfast), creative industries (Dublin
Services and Financial Services), as and Belfast), ‘digital’ (ABC, Louth and
well as high tech Manufacturing and NMD), all feature. Showing the general
Construction. Concentration analysis importance of Agri–Food, in spite of
show how the services sectors are threats from Brexit, Louth, ABC and
particularly strong in individual Council Meath all regard this as a continuing
areas such as Dublin, Fingal and, to a priority sector for them.
lesser extent, Belfast. ManufacturingCurrent Profile, Potential for Recovery & Opportunities for Cooperation 15
35. One sector that is ubiquitous such as education and health
and important to every Council area structures or organisations.
is Tourism with 68,000 jobs currently
located across the Corridor in this 38. The report includes a short
sector. In 2019, almost 11 million assessment of the current state and
trips were made in the Corridor, with performance of the transport assets
access onto the island being especially (detailed in Box 1 in the full report)
beneficial. A high proportion of these and the importance of national and
in the two cities but opportunities also EU investment programmes for these.
for the development of niche tourism This assessment shows how the
packages in areas in between. This Corridor has a varying level of transport
sector has been severely impacted connectivity depending upon the mode
by COVID–19 given social distancing of travel. Connectivity off the island,
measures and restrictions on international through five different ports and three
travel and congregation in hotels, airports, is well–served although access
restaurants and pubs. Supporting to some or all of these assets is an
the sector through what is likely to issue, as is the performance of public
be a second difficult 2021 season and transport along the Corridor.
assisting it to refocus again on the
domestic market is probably key in 39. ‘Soft’ infrastructure refers less to
the short term. physical engineering projects and more
to the institutional, educational and
36. Figure A1 also identifies the research supports which could enable
importance of agglomeration economies economic development. The Corridor
or the benefits of location in a same is well–endowed in these with five
area/city, or in proximity to firms university campuses, a technological
in your sector or related sectors university and an Institute of Technology
(Duranton and Kerr, 2016). The are located there, all bar one of these
advantage of these agglomeration in Dublin and Belfast alone. Just over
economies is the opportunity to 110,000 students were enrolled in
promote areas in certain ways as the these institutions in the 2018/2019
location for certain activities or to build academic year, but the potential goes
research, innovation and capabilities wider than that. Research contributions
infrastructure to support current from the HEIs can act a particular
economic growth and find sources asset for the Corridor, as they house
of future accelerated development. numerous research and incubation
centres, and facilitate public and private
37. Development plans for Corridors collaborations through their Technology
often begin with a plan to mobilise key Transfer Offices.
‘hard’ and ‘soft’ infrastructure assets in
order to support such agglomeration
economies. The first category includes
physical infrastructure such as roads,
bridges, ports and so on, while the
second are enabling institutions,16 The Dublin–Belfast Economic Corridor
Developing
RD&I centres of
excellence
Refocus on Developing
environmental future-proofed
management and skills
resilience
Alignment Moving from
in support for priority sectors
entrepreneurship to clusters
Figure A2: Summary of opportunity areas for cooperation in the Corridor
Potential areas for cooperation 41. The potential areas shown in
Figure A2 are organised under two
40. The final section of the full report key themes for cooperation. These are:
proposes a number of broad areas and
possible actions which might be used as • Promotion: Many of the economic
a beginning of a discussion of potential corridors have pursued the goal of
cooperation along the Corridor. These successfully branding and promoting
arise from different sources: proposals their location. This is often done for
from the Councils and universities the purposes of attracting investment
involved in the network;3 areas identified from both inward private and
in the research, such as ‘soft’ and hard’ domestic public sources. The focus
infrastructural improvements, which have for promotion differs from place
underpinned successful interventions to place but there is a tendency to
in other economic corridors; and areas promote the presence of a highly
which the current profile and future skilled workforce and population, of
prospects of the Corridor suggest, sectoral strengths (eg: Medicon Valley
such as skills development. All of the in Oresund), and the availability
areas are included on the basis that of supports for innovative and
they could deliver additional economic entrepreneurial firms.
value to the region and the island
more generally.
3 An initial workshop in September 2018 for Council officers from across the Corridor identified a number of priority
areas shared in common. These were revisited at a later workshop held in May 2019 which discussed the draft final report.
The common priorities arise from Local Economic Development and Community Plans, as well as the City Deals under
development in NI.Current Profile, Potential for Recovery & Opportunities for Cooperation 17 • Infrastructure: In some economic 42. The potential for cooperation corridors (such as Oresund or the highlights the need for partnership not proposed Oxford/Milton Keynes/ only between local authorities but with Cambridge arc) the emphasis is other key institutions on the Corridor increasingly on the ‘soft’ forms of (e.g. HE institutions). Partnership and infrastructure, such as research a cooperative approach can also shift and innovation centres, Smart the focus of attention from an individual Cities initiatives, and investment place or individual firm to a region and in environmental and energy clusters or networks of businesses. management projects. Growth corridors in East Asia and examples 43. This points to meeting the such as the Basel Tri–national challenge of managing a variety of Agglomeration and the ‘Cascadia’ relationships between a variety of Seattle/Vancouver Corridor have stakeholders, HE institutions, Councils all based cooperation on networks and businesses. These relationships of research institutes, knowledge can tend to rely on individuals but there transfers and joint research are examples of successful institutional programmes in order to benefit the partnerships, for example the Green larger region. ‘Hard’ infrastructure, Way in Dublin, that indicate that such as transport connectivity, successful private sector, local authority has also been crucial to corridor and university partnerships are possible. development and will involve advocacy by the network partners at a regional and national level for further investment.
Current Profile, Potential for Recovery & Opportunities for Cooperation 19
1. Introduction
1. The concept of an Eastern (or
The Island’s potential will not be realised
Belfast/Dublin) Economic Corridor is
until there develops between Belfast
not a new one and was first circulated
and Dublin the normal Economic and
by Sir George Quigley in the early 1990s.
Business interaction which one would
The argument then was that such a
expect to see between cities only 100
Corridor could develop with improved
miles apart... and it needs to be genuinely
transportation infrastructure, more
an economic corridor and not simply
intense interaction between firms in the
a tunnel with nothing happening in
region and stronger linkages between
the space between the two cities.
the universities located there, and
Source: Sir George Quigley, ‘Developing
between these and industry.
the North/South Economic Corridor’ (1995)
2. In the early 1990s three
4. Significant progress has been
interlocking priorities were identified
made in realising the ambitions of
by the business bodies CBI and IBEC:
the 1990s for an economic corridor.
• Embracing the growing forces
Economic growth, the numbers in
of economic globalisation and
employment, improvements in transport
the emergence of the (then) new
connectivity and greater levels of
Single European Market, which
interaction have all been realised.
would reduce barriers to trade
and investment and open new
5. However, almost a quarter century
opportunities for the whole island
on, the concept of a Dublin/Belfast
of Ireland.
Economic Corridor needs re-energising.
• Promoting the combined scale
This raises the question ‘Why Now?’.
of Dublin, Belfast and the region
The first reason is the continued aim of
between the two cities to allow the
both governments on the island to see
island to compete in global export
further development of the Corridor. This
and inward investment markets,
is captured in National Policy Objective
at a time of growing competition
46 in Ireland 2040: ‘In co-operation
between regions.
with relevant Departments in Northern
• Improving interaction along the
Ireland, to further support and promote
corridor – through investment in
the sustainable economic potential of
infrastructure, and enhanced political,
the Dublin-Belfast Corridor and enhance
business and community cooperation
its international visibility’ (NPF, 2018).
– in order to benefit different parts
The agreement to restore a power-
of the island.
sharing Executive in NI (New Decade,
New Approach, 2020) echoes this with
3. Sir George Quigley’s argument
mention of a ‘Better Dublin Belfast
can be summarised by the quote and
Connectivity strategy as an infrastructure
provides the basis for much of what
funding priority (p.52) and that the
follows in this paper.
Irish Government will support ‘serious
and detailed joint consideration’ of the
feasibility of high-speed rail connections
between Belfast, Dublin and Cork (p.59).20 The Dublin–Belfast Economic Corridor
6. Fresh energy has also arisen out 9. The other event is Brexit, which
of a series of meetings since 2018 seems set to change both UK-EU and
between the local authorities along Anglo-Irish relations in fundamental
the Corridor. This network of Councils ways. The existing and potential
decided that a profile of the current flows and inter-connections along the
state of the economy along the Corridor will certainly feature in any
Corridor and the potential for further efforts to minimise the resulting cross-
development and cooperation was border and all-island frictions which
needed. The network approached Dublin are likely to arise from Brexit. Minimising
City University and Ulster University such frictions in movement of goods,
to work with a steering group and knowledge or people is key to all parts
produce a report which could include of the Corridor remaining competitive.
such a profile and draw out the lessons
from other economic corridors on the 10. At the same time as risks there
development of further cooperation. lie opportunities and pressures linked
to the success of the Corridor, and
7. The geographical definition of particularly Dublin and Belfast, in
the Dublin-Belfast Economic Corridor attracting significant levels of inward
which is used in this study is an attempt investment in recent years. This success
to reflect both the administrative emphasises the need to ensure ongoing
geography of the local authority and future-proofed competitiveness in
network behind the profile, and the areas such as skills, infrastructure and
functional geography based on the entrepreneurship. It also points to the
areas through which the road and rail need to develop a counter-balancing
links between Dublin and Belfast pass. source of indigenous growth on the
It is a compact area of just over 7,300 Corridor, in both established sectoral
km2 (or 8.7% of the island). concentrations and emerging clusters,
in order to create new start-ups and
8. A second answer to the question businesses of scale.
‘Why now?’, lies in the risks and
challenges facing the Dublin-Belfast 11. The final part of this answer
Economic Corridor due to the current to ‘Why Now?’ lies in the potential for
economic and political uncertainty. fresh policy alignment and impetus for
This arises from two events, the most cooperation at all levels of government
immediate of which is the COVID-19 along the Corridor. Some progress has
pandemic. The virus has not only led to been made in the new structures arising
an enormous public health crisis with from the National Planning Framework for
tragic consequences across the island Ireland (seen in the Mid & East Regional
but it has also changed the economic Assembly), the Belfast Region City Deal
trajectory of the Corridor from one of and initial work on a growth deal for the
probable slowing growth in 2020 to Mid, South & West region of NI.
one of a deep recession. And the shape
of a recovery in 2021 and 2022 remains
very unclear.Current Profile, Potential for Recovery & Opportunities for Cooperation 21
12. A framework for this cooperation 14. There are other pressing issues
is already in place (DRDNI/DOELG, for the coming decade on the Corridor.
2013) and is outlined in Ireland 2040. First, the need to manage environment
The reconfiguring of local authorities and landscape, while at the same time
and the addition of fresh planning seeking to deliver economic growth in
powers provides a basis for local all its parts. Second, the changing shape
leadership in the Corridor in three of the economy and the importance
key areas: of factors such as digitalisation and
• Regional cooperation arrangements automation, mean that support for
or the exploring of opportunities to current sectoral strengths will need to
achieve larger ambitions through be accompanied by a focus on emerging
collective strength. sectors with their disruptive impacts on
• Local initiatives, which could include incumbent businesses.
joint branding of sectoral strengths
(eg: tourism). 15. One final point is that the Corridor,
• Coordinated spatial planning, as a concept, is both outward and
specifically around developing a inward-looking at the same time.
critical mass along the Corridor To successfully present the Dublin-
which can compete with other Belfast Economic Corridor as a global
major city regions. proposition which can attract inward
investment, there is a requirement
13. The final of these three areas for practical cooperation by local
points to the competing needs, authorities and other stakeholders along
which have to be balanced in any call the Corridor. The next section looks at
to promote or develop the Corridor. the lessons that can be learned from
The call for balanced regional other Corridors when pursuing this aim.
development in both NI and the
Republic of Ireland has remained strong
in the 25 years since Sir George Quigley
first developed a Dublin-Belfast Corridor
concept. Therefore, the case remains to
be made that a concentration of growth
in one place can benefit other places.
This point holds equally true for those
benefits which can be gained by the
parts of the Corridor between Belfast
and Dublin.Current Profile, Potential for Recovery & Opportunities for Cooperation 23
2. Lessons from
other Corridors
1. This section of the report 3. As noted above, the World Bank
explores the concept of corridors refers to transport, trade, or freight
with reference to definitions and corridors, which can consequently
international exemplars, before turning contribute toward economic
to the ingredients (conditions) for development (Hope and Cox, 2015,
successful development of these. p.1 emphasis added). Indeed, at the
heart of any successful corridor must
2.1 What exactly is a corridor? be the ‘presence of inherent economic
potential’ that serves as a platform
2. Corridors feature globally as a by which public and private sector
tool for the spatial management of investment is maximised in order to
regions and associated dynamics that ‘multiply economic returns and benefits’
impact across society, economy and (Kunaka and Carruthers, 2014, p.21).
environment. The term ‘corridor’ is used Mature development corridors not only
variously to explain actual (observed) impact on immediate urban areas, but
patterns of development, and describe can also benefit surrounding regions
future (aspirational) forms of growth. (see Figure 1 below).
Form can vary, for example as a
transport route, or evolution into a
more complex economic corridor.
hard soft inward
infrastructure infrastructure investments
physical economic
conception
feasibility
links that basic multi-modal activity
logistics economic
studies
connect transport transport that benefits
areas or corridor corridor
corridor corridor surrounding
regions regions
for optimal development, the hard and soft
infrastructure should evolve together
Figure 1: Evolution of a development corridor
Source: Hope and Cox, 2015, p.3.24 The Dublin–Belfast Economic Corridor
4. The focus on freight and transport, linked to both economic growth and
regional political cohesion, is core to the Nacala Corridor (southern Africa) and is
mirrored in the aspirations of corridor development across Europe, underpinned by
the various European Regional Development Funds and Trans-European Transport
Network (TEN-T) initiatives. Figure 2 shows how the geography of the TEN-T core
networks actually includes the Dublin-Belfast Economic Corridor.
Figure 2: Core Network Corridors
Source: European Commission, 2019
5. Across Europe, gateways and 6. The latest spatial plan for Ireland –
corridors exist for economic, social and Project Ireland 2040, National Planning
territorial cohesion and are considered Framework (2018) – continues to refer
as “key delivery vehicles to achieve … to corridors as a tool for encouraging
strategic intra- and inter-regional spatial balanced regional development through
rebalancing” (Pain, 2011, p.1160). This the Atlantic Economic Corridor (AEC
featured particularly strongly in both – see Figure 4) and the Dublin-Belfast
the National Spatial Strategy (NSS, economic corridor (see Figure 3).
2002) for Ireland and in the Regional Indeed, in the case of the AEC funding
Development Strategy (RDS, 2001 for a network of Enterprise Hubs and
and 2012) for Northern Ireland. Digital Spaces was announced in
April 2019.Current Profile, Potential for Recovery & Opportunities for Cooperation 25
Figure 4: Map of the Atlantic Economic
Corridor (showing the Western Corridor)
Figure 3: Strategy Map, Ireland 2040
(showing the Eastern Corridor)26 The Dublin–Belfast Economic Corridor
2.2 Ingredients (conditions) jurisdictional corridors thrive when
for success linked “not only geographically but
also by the same willingness and
7. Having scoped the corridor commitment to develop the corridor”
concept, and briefly located (p.14, Kunaka and Carruthers, 2014).
contemporary strategic spatial policy
on the island of Ireland, the focus turns Definition of corridor is necessary
now to identification of ingredients (or 10. Designation of corridor geography,
conditions) for success. Experience alongside identification of local and
shows there is no guarantee that regional government administration, is
designation of a corridor, for example required as a framework for strategy or
in public sector policy, will lead to plan development. This will help ensure
generation – or indeed implementation – development is not limited to gateways
of a formal plan or strategy. but that the benefits are more widely
That said, the existence of two key distributed. Figure 5 over is an example
factors – potentiality and partnership of the complex interconnectedness of
– are critical factors for success; the corridors, which requires management
latter is more often where the gap lies both formally and informally through
in corridor development. Potentiality agreed strategy and other interventions.
has been demonstrated through
earlier economic analysis in this report; Government involved locally,
attention turns now to consider the regionally and nationally
partnership strand. 11. All levels of government need to
be involved in corridor development.
8. Experience elsewhere highlights This is recognised in the Cambridge-
that cooperation across and between Milton Keynes-Oxford Arc where
public and private sector actors and realising the vision is dependent on
agencies is essential for successful “effective leadership” at national and
corridor development (Kunaka and local levels (NIC, 2017, p.3). This is to
Carruthers, 2014). More precisely, ensure enabling processes including
multi-sectoral representation and strategic policy-making, infrastructure
participation of the private sector are investment, and fiscal leverage (where
“sine qua non conditions for successful appropriate) are coordinated for
trade and transport corridors” (p.23). maximum effect. Such reciprocal multi-
What this looks like in relation to level cooperation is, however, not a
corridor development requires given. With the Oresund initiative, for
more detail. example, Danish and Swedish national
authorities have been criticised for a
Stakeholder participation lack of dedicated engagement and
and commitment joint actions (Nauwelaers et al, 2013,
9. Partnership can take many p.37-38). Central government is absent
forms, and weak partnerships occur from the Oresund Committee (see
where there is varying buy-in from details below). Furthermore, the OECD
stakeholders. Consequently, cross- reported “mixed” commitment to the
Oresund at regional and local level.Current Profile, Potential for Recovery & Opportunities for Cooperation 27
One regional authority – Skåne – highly values the bridge as a “necessity” for
economic survival, whereas the Danish Capital Region, with a stronger economic
profile, considered cooperation as positive though not essential.
Regulatory
Processes
Gateway
Border Crossing
Gateway/ Center of Center of Gateway/
Center of Intermodal Center of
Economic
Economic Economic Economic
Interface
Activity Activity Activity Activity
Regulatory Regulatory
Processes Processes
Regulatory
Processes
Primary Route
Alternative Routes
Figure 5: Components of a corridor
Source: Hope and Cox, 2015, p.2. Information Flows
Corridor Governance is key driver for development of a vision
12. Good governance, with for Oresund in 2020, and enabled local
hallmarks of stakeholder inclusivity and regional authorities to develop
and transparency in decision-making, joint land use, transportation, and
is another essential component of environment strategies. Additional
partnership. Substantial literature structures, including a Secretariat
exists on international best practice. and external organisations, support
Preparedness amongst stakeholders to collaboration in Oresund. That said,
innovate can assist the corridor achieve arrangements in Oresund have been
development goals. This may require criticised for being overly-reliant on
new forms of partnership. Examples local and regional government, with
here include the Oresund Committee, a other key actors – such as universities
forum of local and regional authorities – not included in core structures,
established in 1993 for voluntary political detrimentally impacting on strategy
cooperation. The Committee acted as delivery (Nauwelaers et al, 2013).28 The Dublin–Belfast Economic Corridor
13. Not all locations have the Whilst certainly ambitious, the vision
institutional capacity or available time was criticised (Nauwelaers et al, 2013)
to devise new governance structures. as there was no prioritisation given
Considerable resource is required to twelve objectives contained in the
where strategy development follows Oresund Regional Development Strategy
a co-creation pathway to “effective published in 2010. In realising a vision,
inclusive planning” (Atlantic Economic coherency and continuity is necessary:
Corridor, p.8). This is not a short-term
action. Therefore, a trade-off may be
“Corridor development is not
necessary between optimal governance
a single project. It is a complex
arrangements and leading, rather
combination of hard and soft
than reacting to, strong development
infrastructure projects with different
dynamics as experienced in the
durations, often overlapping and
Cambridge-Milton Keynes-Oxford arc:
interacting… throughout the
stages of a corridor’s evolution.”
“It is important that debate on new (Hope and Cox, 2015, p.30)
governance structures does not divert
partners’ attention from work to
15. In summary, corridor development
develop a powerful arc-wide vision
reflects the five key dimensions of
and supporting plans. It is equally
territorial governance:
important that partners avoid changes
• Coordinating actions of actors
to governance structures that would
and institutions;
introduce delay, disruption and
• Integrating policy sectors;
unnecessary cost.” (NIC, 2017, p.79)
• Mobilising stakeholder participation;
• Being adaptive to changing contexts;
Purpose and vision • Realising place-based/territorial
14. A central tenet of corridors is specificities and impacts
creation of a purpose and vision for (ESPON, 2015).
development, common in spatial
planning, around which strategy, actions, 2.3 Island of Ireland
administration and management will
coalesce. This is evident across a variety 16. Learning from elsewhere in
of case study examples: Oresund; Europe is useful in identifying next
Basel Tri-national agglomeration; and steps for the Dublin-Belfast Economic
Cambridge-Milton Keynes-Oxford. The Corridor. A case exists for exploring
Oresund Committee (see above) vision further dimensions of partnership,
for the region in 2020 is “By maximising with the caution that “there is no one-
the benefits of integration and cross- size fits all approach for achieving good
border dynamics, the Oresund Region governance in establishing partnership
will stand out as the most attractive and among towns, cities and rural regions”
climate-smart region in Europe”. (ESPON, 2015).Current Profile, Potential for Recovery & Opportunities for Cooperation 29
Based on experience of promoting 2.4 Concluding points
cross-border economic development,
MOT (2019) identifies two key success 18. It is clear from Oresund, the
factors applicable to the island of Cambridge/Milton Keynes/Oxford
Ireland context: Growth Corridor or Arc and from the
emerging corridors in East Asia, such
Know the cross-border territory, as the Northern Corridor Economic
know each other within the territory Region in Malaysia,4 that a clear vision
of additional economic growth is
“For public authorities, a joint critical. In the case of Cambridge/
assessment of the strengths, Milton Keynes/Oxford Arc some initial
weaknesses, and complementarities of modelling refers to baseline growth
the different sides of the cross-border doubling over a 35 year period if the
territory, and of the economic flows that interventions around transport, housing
characterise it, can demonstrate the and research infrastructure are in
interest of developing cooperation, for place (NIC, 2017).
example around cross-border research
or competitiveness clusters or centres.” 19. The ingredients for successful
cooperation along other economic
corridors can be summarized into
Organise the governance of
the following points:
cross-border economic development
a. Dublin-Belfast Economic Corridor
Involve all relevant territorial
project looks like it is at the ‘Know
stakeholders active within the cross-
the cross-border territory, know each
border territory including all levels
other within the territory’ stage
of government.
b. Cooperation needs (consistent) time,
energy and support to be nurtured
17. Local authorities should reference
and to grow
Framework for Co-operation–Spatial
c. Local actions can deliver strategic
Strategies of Northern Ireland the
objectives in a practical way
Republic of Ireland, published June
d. Not a ‘big bang’ but rather a ‘slow
2013. This provides opportunities for
burn’: medium- to long-term
local government in both jurisdictions
perspective
to work together and is noted in Ireland
e. Early wins can help cement the
2040 as the enabler for cross-border
partnership and ensure sustainable
collaboration in spatial planning.
cooperation
4 Economic corridors in Malaysia (Athukorola and Narayanan, 2018) and the Mekong region (Ishida, 2009)
are among the most studied phenomena and centre on a mix of investment in transport infrastructure and in
innovation and R&D assets.Current Profile, Potential for Recovery & Opportunities for Cooperation 31
3. The Island Economy:
Two Places, One Crisis
1. The start of 2018 saw an important Industry) also shedding employees over
milestone for the all-island economy the decade. The big sectoral gainers,
when it passed the previous three in terms of jobs, have been (the ever-
million employment peak seen in growing) Health, ICT, Accommodation
2008. As the table below shows this (Tourism) and Professional Services.
employment growth has continued for
another year and, by late 2019, there 3. This ongoing restructuring in
were nearly 3.3 million jobs in the the economy is critical to the future
economy. The economic impacts of the development of the Dublin-Belfast
COVID-19 pandemic will send many of Economic Corridor, raising a key
these gains into a rapid reverse. question about the types of jobs,
workforce skills and living environments
2. However, before we come to this needed in the next two decades.
point, it is important to note that during The development of the Corridor is
the last recovery a significant change complicated by a second feature: the
has occurred in sectoral structure of divergence in economic growth rates
the island’s economy. Sectors such as between the Republic of Ireland and
Construction lost large numbers of Northern Ireland. These are issues
jobs, with Manufacturing (a sub-set of returned to later in the report.
Table 1: Change in employment by sector, All-island, 2008-2019
2008 Q4 2019 Q4 Change % share in 2019
Agriculture 144,200 131,300 -12,900 4.0%
Industry 404,600 403,200 -1,400 12.3%
Construction 280,700 215,300 -65,400 6.3%
Wholesale and retail 474,700 448,700 -26,000 13.8%
Transport 123,400 141,100 +18,700 4.3%
Accommodation and food 186,200 234,900 +48,700 7.2%
ICT 107,600 159,200 +52,600 4.8%
Finance 141,700 134,700 -7,000 4.1%
Professional services 159,000 192,000 +33,000 5.8%
Administration 144,900 174,100 +29,200 5.3%
Public administration 163,000 168,800 +5,800 5.1%
Education 216,100 264,700 +48,600 8.1%
Health 357,400 435,400 +78,000 13.3%
Other 147,600 174,600 +28,000 5.2%
All sectors 3,055,000 3,282,000 +227,000 100%
Source: ONS Workforce Jobs; CSO Labour Force Survey; UUEPC analysisYou can also read
