Managing Black Swan Information Technology Projects
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Proceedings of the 44th Hawaii International Conference on System Sciences - 2011
Managing Black Swan Information Technology Projects
Wilfred W. Wu* Gregory M. Rose* Kalle Lyytinen*
Washington State University Washington State University Case Western Reserve University
wwu1@wsu.edeu grose@wsu.edu kalle@case.edu
*The authors wish to note that, while authorship is in reverse alphabetical order, all have contributed equal and invaluable
work to this research.
Abstract techniques that may be applicable to typical
projects. Second, there are known periods of
Radically innovative information technology disruptive innovation [4, 5] where successfully
projects are considered one of the most managing high-profile and high-risk projects is
challenging and difficult types of software projects necessary for firm survival. Third, very large-scale
to oversee and manage. The unique nature of such IT failures, (i.e. Sobey’s failed SAP, or FedEx’s
projects relegates them into a unique class of B2B supply-chain integration) [1] continue to be
projects that we characterize as “Black Swans.” reported. These projects are high-profile, high-
Highly innovative/radical IT projects reflect a risk, and contain risks that are not easily captured
“black swan” situation, where knowledge from by standard risk methods which can potentially
previous projects do not provide significant insight bankrupt a firm. Often these risks are borne out
into how they can be managed. While such “Black from the inherently evolving and unknown facets
Swans” are a unique sub-set within the area of of technology [4] involved in project scope. A
project management, understanding the major challenge therefore for conducting these
techniques employed in the development and large projects is the need to manage unbounded
management of such efforts should enlighten and and non-linear risks reflecting the high level of
improve traditional project-management
uncertainty and complexity that arise over the
processes employed for most software
course of a large and innovative project [6]. They
development efforts. This paper presents and
discusses key results of an exploratory field-study bring new challenges to managing software
that examines eight unique “black swan” projects. projects that arise from introducing and integrating
innovative technologies into project solutions.
These innovation risks are caused by the radical
nature of the underlying innovation and related
1. Introduction
unprecedented technical complexity. Such unusual
projects are the focus of this study and it is
Information Technology (IT) projects are a
motivated by the fact that they cause constant
high risk proposition which has been known since
methodological problems for project managers and
the early 80’s. The Standish Group study in 1994
very little is known regarding the management of
reported a 70% project failure rate while a more
such efforts [for exceptions seen Bergman et al
recent Gartner study indicated a 40% project
2004, Drummond 1996, Iscoe et al 1987]. We
failure [1, 2]. Over the last three decades, a large
refer to these projects as “black swans” (coined by
number of studies have examined root causes for
Taleb [7]) to recognize situations and events not
project failures. As a result, several frameworks
captured by stringent Gaussian risk models. But,
have been constructed to raise project management
they still do exist and need to be taken into
awareness of the typical collection of risks
consideration.
associated with projects [3]. However, these
The few studies to date that have discussed
studies have primarily focused on a set of typical,
issues around black swan projects seem to concur
well known problems. Likewise, methodologies
that highly-innovative IT projects differ so much
promoted and codified by PMI, CMM, and ISO
that the standard ways of managing projects and
9001 do not recognize atypical problems and how
developing systems cannot succeed. Yet, one
to handle them. While atypical problems are
challenge with the earlier studies is that they focus
overlooked due to their infrequent nature, research
on a specific aspect such as requirements [3], on
into such outlier projects offer three distinct
one dimension of project dynamics like politics
advantages. First, by understanding projects that
[8], or on risk-related project escalation [9]. In
deviate from the norm, we can identify atypical
1530-1605 2011 1
U.S. Government Work Not Protected by U.S. CopyrightProceedings of the 44th Hawaii International Conference on System Sciences - 2011
response, new strategies need to be developed that 2.2. Black swans: innovative, radical and
better integrate the management of large projects complex projects
with the nature of their technological innovation.
We therefore believe that a careful examination While professional organizations such as PMI
of unusual, large and innovative projects allows us maintain a codification of best practices regarding
to understand: 1) what the differences are between project management standards and techniques
typical IT development efforts and radically [12], they do not explicitly account for the
innovative development efforts; and 2) how the existence of highly complex or innovative
processes utilized for managing a radical IT projects. The methods utilized in handling large
development effort have important implications and complex IT projects are therefore left to be
for project management in general. Accordingly, managed with scaled-up versions of the same
in this study we seek to identify common basic project management processes [8]. This
challenges and response patterns associated with approach appears to be highly ineffective for IT
black swan development efforts based on a field projects that delve into areas of radical innovation
study of large and innovative software projects. [9]. Prior work that has examined how managers
can recognize and measure a project’s level of
2. The management of IT projects complexity [9, 10], argue for a need to modify the
project management process to fit the unique
nature of managing highly innovative information
2.1. The project management process
technology projects [10, 11, and12]. This need to
consider changes to the basic IT project
Though a number of project management management framework can be crucial for the
techniques and methodologies have been applied success of highly innovative or radical IT projects.
towards the management of IT projects [10], the IT projects considered to be highly innovative
management of such projects encompasses the or “radical” in nature are defined to be “ground
steps outlined in a basic structured process breaking and dissimilar enough from prior IT
approach (Figure 1). Within this structured project projects that existing methodologies simply do not
management process, a project is typically adequately work” [13]. These black swans are
initiated by some need or opportunity, planned and considered to be unique situations that carry a
scoped from beginning to end, executed by the potential for extreme impact [7]. There exists thus
project team, with appropriate changes and a sub-set of projects that can be identified as
modifications applied. This cycle of execution, “Project Black Swans.” These projects are outliers
change, and scope modification continues until the that fall outside the realm of similarity to previous
project reaches a final resolution of either IT projects such that pre-existing experience
completion or abandonment [11]. Whether a provides little transferable guidance. Additionally,
project manager utilizes waterfall, JAD, or some these projects carry a high potential for a major
form of agile development methodology, the impact within their respective marketplaces [7].
standard project-management-process steps serve
as a basic framework within which these
2.3. Managing risks on IT projects
techniques operate [11].
There is an array of literature on different
A major factor impacting the successful
project management techniques, styles and
outcome of an IT project is risk. Project managers
methodologies [3, 10, and 11]. As new techniques
need to manage the risks that can arise over the
evolve, a key focus of this evolution has been to
course of a project’s life [3]. Studies that have
improve upon different aspects of basic project
examined the root causes for IT project failures
management processes. These refinements include
[13, 14] have focused on potential risk factors that
finding ways to better control scope, maintain
need to be mitigated for IT project success [13].
quality, reduce costs, deliver projects on a timely
With the identification of these potential risk
basis, improve integration and communications,
factors, other studies have attempted to construct a
efficiently procure and manage resources, and
framework to help project managers identify these
control risks. These aspects or knowledge areas, as
varying risks within their own IT projects [3].
defined by the project management institute
IT projects can encounter risks arising from
(PMI), are the key concerns for a project manager
factors that are internal (i.e. time and personnel
in running their designated projects [12].
limitations) and external (i.e. new technologies) to
a project [3]. By nature, the inherently continual
2Proceedings of the 44th Hawaii International Conference on System Sciences - 2011
evolution of technology raises a unique and firm. Each participant only took part in one of the
challenging facet of risk [15]. As technologies twenty-nine sessions. This helped control the
constantly evolve, understanding how to manage potential for collaborative (“group think”)
the application of them continues as well. As the responses [17] and created a more rigorous
innovation sets become more radical in nature, the approach to the data collection process. Overall,
application of the technologies become more 35 professionals participated in the sessions and
ambiguous and risky [16]. The advent of these had an average of 11.5 years of project
innovation risks can cause process and management experience.
methodological problems for IT project managers. Within these sessions, additional questioning
This can be especially true within the black swan was conducted to identify those who had managed
subset of IT projects [7] where traditional project at least one radically innovative and large project.
management is inadequate. This leads us to the Utilizing Peter’s definition of radical innovation as
following set of research conjectures: the basis for defining highly innovative IT projects
[26], the IT project management experts in the
Research Conjecture A: Black swan IT first panel were asked during the initial panel
projects significantly impact the phase to describe an IT project they felt was
effectiveness of existing project management highly innovative in nature. Likewise, they were
processes of an organization initiating such asked if they found their traditional project
efforts. management methods were deemed significantly
inadequate. Inadequacy was where a significant
Research Conjecture B: Management of percentage of previously unknown methods
black swan IT projects requires development needed to be invented and implemented. Each of
and utilization of non-standard project the 35 experts was asked to rate the project they
management techniques and methodologies. just described on a scale of 1 to 5 (1=no
innovation involved in the project, 2=some minor
innovative issues, 3=project was equally balanced
3. Multisite case study of innovative between innovative and known IT project issues,
4=project was predominantly innovative in nature
black swan projects with over half of the issues on the project being
innovative or radical in nature, 5=project was
3.1. Research methodology completely innovative in nature, never attempted
before). Respondents who gave ratings of 4 or 5
To examine and validate our research were asked to participate as experts in a second
conjectures, a study modeled after a Delphi survey panel phase.
approach developed by Schmidt [17] was A second panel of experts was constituted from
conducted. The method provides statistical members of the first panel who had indicated
measures of consensus within the panel, while experience in managing a highly innovative
allowing for comparisons to be made across project. A total of nine participants were selected
multiple panels. The experiences and opinions of a (see Table 1), and nine separate sessions were held
panel of IT project management professionals to discuss project management issues. Eight of the
were solicited through a series of iterative, nine selected participants completed the panel
controlled feedback interviews. A total of thirty- sessions. The second panel, of IT project
five project management professionals were management experts, was asked to discuss their
recruited from twenty-nine firms to form an initial experiences on the highly innovative or radical IT
panel of experts. Each IT project management projects they had identified during the initial
professional had multiple years of experience and panel-phase. They were led via a series of
expertise with managing several large, complex IT questions to describe, explain, and contrast their
projects. Each expert had to have extensively and experiences managing a standard IT project
repeatedly used a set of standard project (projects that would rate a 1 or 2 on the
management methods for these IT projects. The aforementioned scale) with the highly
first panel was conducted with 35 information innovative/radial projects they had described in the
technology project management professionals, initial panel. Detailed project descriptions
representing 29 different firms. Within the first regarding the management of forty-nine different
panel, twenty-nine separate sessions were held, IT projects were gathered from the two panels.
with each session corresponding to a particular
3Proceedings of the 44th Hawaii International Conference on System Sciences - 2011
3.2. Research findings video-on-demand delivery system; and the
development of credit card processing systems at
The first panel sessions lasted from 45 to 70 individual gas pumps.
minutes in length while the second panel sessions The project managers associated with these
lasted from 120 to 180 minutes in length. Over projects realized early on their existing
800 pages of transcript data was generated from methodologies would not work. As one project
these interviews, which were conducted between manager stated:
April and July of 2008.
Our findings from the panels indicated that a We knew we couldn’t do what was
majority of the IT projects described were typically done…so we spent a lot of up-
managed in a “structured IT project management front time to understand everything, or
process” approach. Noticeable differences to this as much of everything, we could.”-F11
approach were found in the approaches taken by
project managers who discussed managing IT While another project manager voiced:
projects that were rated as highly
innovative/radical. …thinking-outside of the box was
needed. We couldn’t take things on head-
3.2.1. A structured IT project management on, given the large number of technical
approach. At its highest, most abstract level, the issues presented by the project.-F3
approach for managing the 40 non-radical IT
projects can be described with the simple model As noted, the eight projects occurred in eight
shown in Figure 1 which lays out a typical project entirely different firms with eight different IT
management life cycle [11]. Each project manager project managers. Detailed analysis of these eight
accomplished this cycle using their own extensive projects indicates that none of the key
collection of standardized methods and tools. The characteristics such as specifications, technologies,
nine projects identified as radical were recognized or solutions shared anything in common except for
early on to be profoundly unlike anything the their level of radicalness. Interestingly, however,
project manager(s) or organization(s) had worked the methodological solutions arrived at
on in the past and required a departure from the independently by these eight different project
norm. managers overlapped considerably. In each case,
the new methodologies included two shared
3.2.2. Managing highly complex IT projects. methods not seen in the standard IT project
The nine “highly-innovative or radical” process: (1) a dedicated pre-planning phase for
information technology projects are listed in Table identifying radical innovation points in the project;
2. The nine projects identified carried a high and (2) an exploration approach for finding
potential for a major impact on their respective potential solutions for each of the identified
marketplaces. These IT projects were “radical” radical innovation points. While the details
and “frame breaking” [7, 18] and were associated differed, at a high-level of abstraction we observed
with massive learning barriers to be overcome [18] convergent evolution where 8 unassociated project
and were dissimilar enough from prior projects managers in 8 separate firms who had never
that existing methods simply did not work (similar worked together identified essentially the same set
in nature to Taleb’s definition of black swan of new meta-methods to manage black swan
occurrences). projects.
Due to scheduling issues, one of the nine
identified project managers was not able to 3.2.3. A pre-planning phase. Each of the eight
complete their second panel session, bringing the complex project management methodologies
total participants in the second panel to eight. developed included a dedicated period of up-front
Interestingly, none of the project managers in the time set aside specifically to identify potential
second panel had managed more than a single problem-points in the project. As one project
black swan project during their career. manager described:
The eight black swan projects from the second
panel session occurred across a wide span of time
1
ranging from the late 1980’s to the late 1990’s, Quotes are taken directly from interview data. They are
and included: the development of an online referenced to Table 1, with the designations indicating which
textbook delivery system; the development of a firm and project manager is being referenced (i.e., F1 indicates
the project manager interviewed from firm 1).
4Proceedings of the 44th Hawaii International Conference on System Sciences - 2011
Overall, this approach allowed the project
We identified a number of challenges that manager, prior to starting the project, a chance to
we had no blueprints for tackling…no one identify and segment the problem points into
had seen these problems before…we were manageable sub-projects where appropriate
treading new ground.-F5 solutions could be explored.
The highly innovative projects studied were Even though it sounds like a lot of time,
selected because the project managers recognized when I look back now, it helped us plan for
each contained many radical deviations from and anticipate a number of these problems.
traditional projects. It was apparent to the project We could then breakdown a project based
managers from the second panel that there was a on the identified issues and have different
need to examine and discuss potential issues prior groups start working on them…sometimes in
to laying out a project plan. tandem.-F3
You need to at least have some idea as to 3.2.4. Exploring innovation points. The
how to approach this type of project, so identification of the innovation points established
good upfront work is crucial. Especially key problem areas within projects that required
when it comes to timing and planning out novel solutions. The eight project managers
such a project.-F8 treated their innovation points as unique sub-
projects within the greater project.
By using a pre-planning phase, all eight project
managers in the second panel felt it saved them With the technical issues we had never dealt
considerable amounts of time during the execution with before, we chunked things down into
of their projects. One project manager illustrated more manageable pieces. I looked upon
the importance of identifying and planning for them as unique problems that we had to find
problem points by describing a key unanticipated solutions for.-F7
project issue that had to be dealt with during
execution. The only thing that made sense was to go
after the problem one piece at a time. It just
A major issue occurred during the execution made things more manageable…not so
of my project. It was something that we or I daunting a task.-F6
did not foresee and it held us up for almost 3
months. Once I saw this and knew a similar All of the black swan projects approached
issue would come again at other points in their innovation-point sub-projects by isolating
the project, I was able to plan for them and them and assigning dedicated project personnel to
overcame these issues rather quickly. explore for potential solutions. While an IT
Granted we had some prior experience now project is typically planned and executed in
but I’m sure if we had anticipated and sequence, the black swan projects began
planned ahead I could have done things execution of their innovation-point sub-projects as
faster…probably 5 times faster.-F4 soon as possible (or as resources permitted). The
primary reason given for this was the uncertainty
The second panel project managers felt that a surrounding the time needed to resolve a
significant number of problem points were particular innovation point.
identified the pre-planning sessions. The time
devoted to this exercise could be fairly lengthy. Since we couldn’t accurately come up with
The average time spent on the eight projects was time estimates with the more difficult
3.1 months, with ranges from 3 to 15 weeks in portions of the project, such as figuring out
length. how to increase download speeds for people
with dial-up modems, we needed to start
We spent a lot of time to just brainstorm out tackling this problem from the get go… -F5
potential problems. In our case it was about
3 months of looking at what issues and This second differentiating point from the
technical problems would…or could be standard IT project process, focused on a need to
encountered.-F1 explore multiple solutions for radical innovation
point problems. Each radical innovation point
5Proceedings of the 44th Hawaii International Conference on System Sciences - 2011
required a diversified problem solving approach of a project. This can be accomplished because the
exploring and evaluating multiple potential sub-components of a project have more
solutions. A continuous cycle of execution and recognizable requirements and resource planning
exploration ruled out potential dead-ends until a can be estimated for each at the beginning of the
viable solution could be utilized. project. This was simply not the case for the eight
An interesting part of this process was the black swan projects.
approach taken in attempting to find viable
solutions for the innovation-points. Instead of a
typical problem solving approach, where one has a With the black swan projects, a fixed road-map
problem and attempts to solve this problem, two of for the entire project could not be planned out due
the project managers described approaches that to the numerous radical innovation points that
looked for similar problems or a similar series of would be encountered. As described by one
problems as a way to find solutions that could be subject: since a large portion of these radical
modified to work for their problem(s) in question. projects dealt with new or unexplored
technologies, the exploration of multiple-paths
The strategy a number of my sub-team was needed in order to arrive at a potential
managers utilized was finding similar solution.
problems to the problem they were assigned.
In some cases they were able to modify We were constantly looking at different
solutions from these similar technical issues solutions all the time. We weren’t sure what
and apply them to their sub-project. – F3 would work so multiple teams always
worked towards a solution on a specific
We tried to keep it simple, since we really issue.-F6
didn’t have time to re-invent the wheel.
Looking for potential-solutions from similar This exploration process went hand-in-hand
problems that could be modified for what we with the execution of the project. As less
were doing was the approach we took promising paths were eliminated and more
whenever possible.-F2 promising solutions were pursued, the other parts
of the project (both related and unrelated) would
While segmentation in general appears be re-scoped and re-planned as necessary, which
consistent with traditional IT planning (as would led to a constantly evolving scope-execution-
be seen in a work-breakdown-schedule [3, 11]), exploration-change cycle.
there are three important differences. First,
traditional planning does not identify sub- We needed to communicate constantly and
components of a project based on degree of make sure everyone was on the same page.
innovation. Once a potential solution [was] decided
upon, it could impact others on the
We used this time to hash out the problems project…so we made sure everyone was in
we knew would appear during the project. the loop. And, this was a constant process
I’m talking about issues we hadn’t dealt that never ended, well not until the project
with before, but that we could anticipate was done.-F7
given the unique nature of this project.-F8
The frequent changes encountered on the black
Second, traditional methods do not set aside swans required a project manager who could adapt
significant time for exploration of multiple quickly and adjust the project plan appropriately.
solutions to fulfill the requirements for completing Once a solution was adopted, the project manager
sub-components. needed to ascertain the impact this adoption would
have on other parts (innovation-points) of the
Even though we spent what might seem a lot project. They had to understand the linkages
of upfront prep time, in our case five weeks, among the various parts of a radical project in
we needed it to start looking at the true order to be flexible and nimble enough to make
scope of this project.-F7 the appropriate adjustments to any part of the
project.
Finally, traditional projects allow for development
of a work-breakdown-schedule at the beginning of
6Proceedings of the 44th Hawaii International Conference on System Sciences - 2011
…as one approach was adopted over others, I black swans, we were able to find the development
had to know how to adjust other related areas of new project management techniques within
in the project, … sometimes that meant these atypical projects. These techniques (careful
dropping certain approaches and starting and elongated up-front planning, exploration of
down a new set of paths.-F6 identified innovation-points, and proper
integration of innovation point sub-projects),
At times, the need to adjust could also mean though developed out of necessity, helped
changing an adopted innovation-point solution. facilitate the unique management challenges
encountered on these highly-innovative projects.
If we chose path C to solve one problem, but
The highly innovative black swan projects all
it caused problems with some other parts of
took an elongated period of time to begin initial
the project down the line, we may have to go
preparation and scoping of the overall project. The
back and say…let’s use path B, even though
average of 3.1 months of prep time highlights the
path C might be the optimal solution on a
importance of the preplanning stage. While some
stand-alone basis, path B was the optimal
project managers interviewed initially felt this
project solution since it would allow us to
time taken was particularly lengthy and
move other parts [innovation-points] of the
unconventional, by the execution stage of the
project along.-F6
projects they all felt the time spent upfront had
saved them from potentially lengthy setbacks. In
Whatever the situation, adjusting and adapting to
particular, the identification of innovation-points
changes appropriately was paramount for the
(problem areas within the project that were
continual progression and advancement of black
radically different from prior experiences) was a
swan projects. In a particular black swan project,
key output of this preplanning stage.
the innovation-points were labeled as discovery
Once the innovation points were identified, the
pages and were usually examined and ranked for
project managers had to devise a method to
their viability in achieving the desired technical
approach and tackle these unique problems.
outcome before attempting to integrate them to the
Multiple potential solutions to the innovation-
core IT project.
points were needed. This led to a need to test out
...we [created] discovery pages which were the solutions and determine their ramifications on
rapid durations through technical issues. We all aspects of the project (including other
tested as much as possible, for potential innovation-points within the project). Once a
problems in the project, before integrating solution or path was chosen from a series of
them into the actual project.-F8 multiple possibilities, project managers had to
understand the ramifications of this decision.
An iterative cycle of exploration via these Since the choice of a particular solution at an
mini-technical projects and integration with the innovation point could limit or even point toward
core project was utilized until the main project was other possibilities in the project, project managers
completed or terminated. As another project had to be cognizant of this fact and appropriately
manager stated: adjust the execution of other innovation points in a
A radical or high innovation project is project. As a result, a systemic view had to be
basically a series of discoveries that are taken by the project managers on black swan
required to complete the whole.-F1 projects and roadmaps for any and all types of
innovation points needed to be fluid and prepared
Due to the multiple-exploratory paths that these with change in mind. To do otherwise risked
projects required, the ability and willingness to implementing solutions that needed to be modified
explore along with the ability for rapid or replaced entirely to the detriment of the overall
adaptability were essential for success. project. Project managers discussed the need to
utilize the appropriate project-level solution as
4. Discussion, follow-up and opposed to the most efficient solution for a
contributions particular innovation point. While a particular
solution might be the most efficient for a particular
4.1. Main findings innovation-point, it did not necessarily work for
the project as a whole (possibly disrupting or not
While most IT projects by definition are not
7Proceedings of the 44th Hawaii International Conference on System Sciences - 2011
integrating appropriately other phases of the degrees of complexity and ambiguity. While all
project). three had not worked with a prototyping
Variations of these techniques we employed by methodology in their prior experiences, they all
all eight black swan projects we studied. It is felt creating a ‘prototype’ or ‘mockup’ would help
interesting to note that these techniques were with integration of the innovation-point back into
developed in isolation of each other within the main project. All three indicated that these
separate firms. prototypes were helpful but insufficient for
addressing the problems caused by the black
4.2. Follow-up to main findings
swans. It was the development and utilization of
Up till this point, discussion of managing black the techniques described in the research findings
swan projects has focused entirely on radical that allowed them to effectively deal with their
innovation points. By no means were black swan respective innovation points.
projects comprised exclusively of radical These follow-up interviews appear to give
innovation points. Several components in each of some grounded validity to the use of the black
the black swan projects were incrementally swan management techniques uncovered in this
innovative or non-innovative in nature. For these study. Each project manager could see the merit of
sub-components, traditional project management having a preliminary period of innovation point
techniques could apply and were utilized within all identification process, especially on large IT
eight “black swan” efforts. efforts. Likewise, seventeen of the project
Accordingly, the project managers interviewed managers saw the value in isolating an innovation
described a dual-level process for the planning and point for development and eventual integration
execution of a black swan project. Where possible, into the main project.
the project managers retained the standard IT The preplanning stage of 3.2 months that we
project process [refer to Figure 1] for any saw in the eight black swan projects would surely
incremental innovation points identified. This be excessive in more traditional projects with
integrated management style seemed to be fewer radical innovation points. However, our
adaptable to other IT projects that held some sampled project managers unanimously agreed
degree of innovation. We did an initial follow-up that some period of classifying radical innovation
on this conjecture to see the viability of such an points would be valuable. Where an innovation
idea. point was deemed to be incrementally innovative,
Follow up interviews with twenty-five of the a standard IT project process seemed appropriate
original project managers from the first panel were to the project managers, while innovation points
conducted. Seventeen of these project managers deemed to be radical were seen as areas in a
had indicated no prior experience in managing a project that required a black swan approach where
black swan type project. Their responses strongly appropriate resources and planning needed to be
suggested they could see the utility of applied.
implementing some of the techniques developed
on the black swan efforts on large and complex IT 4.3. Contributions
projects. In particular, the idea of identifying
potential innovation-points was deemed a viable Our examination of projects that focused on the
addition to the current project management development of new IT product lines or new IT
processes. All twenty-one project managers technologies could not be adequately managed by
recalled managing at least one complex IT project a traditional IT PMI methodology. These findings
that held multiple highly-innovative points within provide contributions to both practice and
the makeup of their respective projects. These research. For practitioners and researchers alike,
innovation points had not been identified in future models and methods need to be expanded to
advance and ended up being the project bottle- take deviations from standard methods into
necks on several of these projects, causing consideration. First, because so many projects are
significant trouble with quality, cost, and time. known to fail, both need to look outside of what is
During these follow-up interviews, three of the standard practice or conventional wisdom to
eight project managers from the second panel identify how we can lower IT implementation
recalled developing an early prototyping method failures to a more acceptable level. Second, even
for their black swan projects. These prototypes in a small sample of 35 project managers, a full 9
were built for certain innovation points, in (26%!) had experienced a black swan project and
particular the points deemed to contain high needed to abandon their traditional ways of work.
8Proceedings of the 44th Hawaii International Conference on System Sciences - 2011
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bottlenecks will no longer be unpleasant surprises [7] Taleb, N.N. Black Swans: The Impact of Highly
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existence of black swans within projects. Based on Information Systems Project Management, Prentice
Hall, NJ, 2008.
the results of this study, we believe the adaption of
black swan project techniques can be effectively [12] Project Management Institute, A Guide to the
integrated. In particular, project managers should Project Management Body of Knowledge: (PMBOK
be: (1) setting aside a period of time up front to Guide) 4th Edition, PM Institute, 2008.
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appropriate slack at the choke-points to either Managing Risk on Large Projects and Complex
increase resources or modify subsequent steps to Procurements. John Wiley & Sons, Hoboken, NJ, 2005.
take into account the new realities of what time,
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Figures & Tables
Figure 1. Standard IT project management process
(Derived from the PMI project process model)
Initiation Planning Execution Project
MGT / Scope MGT Resolution
Change
MGT
Table 1. Demographics of sites & subjects with innovative IT project
experience
# Years PM Project
Firm Industry Subject Titles Experience Rating
F1 Software Program Manager 10+ 4
F2 Oil & Gas Project Manager 17+ 4
F3 Diversified Computer Systems Program Manager 15+ 4
F4 Financial Services Program Manager 15+ 5
F5 Semi-conductor Program Manager 25+ 4
F6 Consulting Project Manager 20+ 5
F7 Communications Project Manager 15+ 5
F8 Pub lishing Project Manager 32+ 5
F9 Internet, Web -Based Project Manager 10+ 4
Table 2. Description of radical / innovative projects
1
Subject IT Project Innovation Descriptions Innovation Rating
Develop on-site gas-pump credit card transaction processing IT infrastructure during mid-
4
F1 90's.
Design and implemenation of an Intranet interface for all areas of the company during the
4
F2 early 90's
Developed an advanced imaging system for paperless electronic processing of checks in
5
F3 early 90's
"Dobson Project": dealing with increasing processing speeds and memory swapping
4
F4 capabilities
Developing an integrated paperless check-processing system in late 90's. 4
F5
Advanced leading edge enterprise level applications (i.e. CORBA) for Banks in early to mid
5
F6 90's
Develop a multi-media Internet based on demand system for films and vidoes in mid-90's 5
F7
Developing an Internet-based Textbook delivery system in mid-80's 5
F8
Web-based search engine development in mid 90's 4
F9
1
Subject assessment of project. Scaled from 1 (no innovation involved) to 5 (completely innovative on all fronts)
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